Origin Energy Limited

Okay, good morning, everyone, and welcome to the 2025 half-year results for Origin Energy. I'm Frank Calabria, the CEO of Origin, and I am joined by Tony Lucas today, our CFO, and the rest of the executive leadership team. You'll hear from Tony and I this morning as we work through the introduction, financial results and the operational commentary and guidance. And then what we'll do is we'll open up for questions as we normally do and have an opportunity to ask any question to any member of the team. So the outline set out on page two, and now really looking at page four, the summary of our result. Energy markets is lower in line with guidance expectations that we set at the beginning of the year, financial year that is. APL&G's earnings are up 14%, driven by higher realised prices and increased sales volumes. The LNG trading business has delivered $285 million in EBITDA. That's obviously up significantly and is heading towards the top end of the range of the guidance. And Octopus continues to grow globally across both energy and technology. And from an earnings perspective, the growth has been in the UK retail business. That's been more than offset by investment scaling their energy services business. Think about the origin business and the way we're setting ourselves up for the energy transition and the way we lead through that, really through our asset portfolio and capabilities that we believe are differentiated and continuing to build both so that we can succeed in what is quite a dynamic market. When it comes to retail, we have a leading retail position and tech platforms. They are driving a focus on continuous improvement in customer experience and cost, and we're well on track for our guidance for the cost-to-serve reduction of $100 million to $150 million in 2026 financial year from 2024. We have an advantage flexible wholesale portfolio you can see that extends right across our gas peaking VPP of 1.5 gigawatts. And we have 1.7 gigawatts of batteries underway, which we'll talk about further. And obviously that's in addition to our RR implant. APLNG continues to generate strong cash flow, and following on from the commentary you would have seen in our quarterly, is very much focused on continuing to do what it does well, which is optimising production from existing wells, and we'll expand further how we think about that. And clearly we have a global growth opportunity through Octopus, through both energy and technology. They are now the largest UK energy retailer and also closing in with Kraken, having 100 million accounts on its platform ahead of its target date of 2027. The balance sheet remains strong. The cash flows are generating from across these businesses. And that's enabled us to increase the dividend for the interim at the same time as investing in the energy transition. And Tony will take you through the financial profile of the organisation, how to think about that. The financial highlights, you can see both statutory profit and underlying profit are both up. Underlying profit at $924 million is up $177 million from the equivalent half last year. Our underlying EBITDA of $1.926 billion is down from $1.995 in the equivalent half. Underlying EBITDA to adjusted net debt is at 1.5 times. That's still well below our target of two to three times, but is up since June. The rolling 24 month return on capital employed is 16.4%. And you can see the interim dividend of 30 cents per share fully franked is up two and a half cents per share. When we think about the energy transition, it's a multi-decade challenge to achieve net zero. I'm on slide six. And what you can see is that new capacity in renewable storage and consumer energy resources will increase by greater than two and a half times. And I should point out that this is under the AEMO step change scenario. As the national electricity market transitions to renewables, the value of dispatchable capacity increases. As coal retires, it's primarily replaced by shorter duration storage. Now, this storage is very important to manage oversupply with the increase in energy coming from must-run renewables. It is the longer duration energy that becomes scarcer. And that's shown by the decline in those blue and grey bars on the chart there. And this is the energy source that will be critical to manage a wide range of scenarios, those scenarios that could be either cold snaps, heat waves and renewable supply and storage shortages. So that really is the dynamic of how the energy supply market will change, particularly as you can see, there will be a lot of growing demand over the next couple of decades. And as we go through this transition, it's imperative that the policies focus on energy security. And the reason for that is that market design, particularly on the left in relation to the national electricity market, will need to change to be fit for purpose in a world of a high penetration of variable renewable energy. And in our view, that very strongly requires a capacity mechanism design that does include gas, which will be critical to support reliability and climate goals. And we should have energy security in mind, particularly as we go forward. And that's going to be critical to achieve that. We'll need to also make sure that as this changes that the contract market liquidity, particularly as coal retires, and that we efficiently introduce a growing consumer energy resources, including through DPPs with the right level of transparency and flexibility. There's been much commentary on gas and its role in the energy transition, and there is an urgent need to address gas supply challenges. There is a significant risk of shortfalls in the coming years, the declining production in the southern states, capacity constraints on pipelines at peak times between the north and south. So, storage, regasification, pipelines and new supply are all needed, and that's clearly a priority for policymakers in the industry right now. When we think about the origin business and how we set ourselves up for today and in the future, it really is to lead the energy transition through differentiated assets and capabilities. And over the coming slides, we'll talk about how we are set up and continue to invest and position ourselves across energy, supply, customer, energy resources and octopus. And when you step back from that, that shows both an integrated position all the way through in a domestic market and also a global growth opportunity beyond. When we turn to customer of the first of those, we have a leading customer position of 4.7 million customer accounts across homes and small business, a strong and trusted brand, world-class tech and analytics platforms in place. We have owned sales channels and strong partnerships that are going to an ability to compete in the market at a lower cost to acquire and capture more of the share in the right segments. And we continuously employ these and bring them together to improve achieving lower cost, improved customer experience and also creating value. At the same time, we are growing our community energy services and broadband businesses as well. And in Origin Zero, we have over 25,000 sites and we're combining energy supply with a range of efficiency, electrification and distributed energy services where we are orchestrating distributed supply and demand via the VPP. That's a core component that's being introduced and deployed across this market segment. And growth in that business is occurring through e-mobility, embedded networks and community batteries. We continue to recognise the cost of living pressures that are being felt by many households, and we are supporting the most vulnerable customers through a range of initiatives. And we also continue to contribute to communities, including through our foundation, but also First Nations spend community funds in communities such as Araring, and also the volunteering by many of our employees. Turning to energy supply, I talked about an advantage portfolio, particularly as a market that accelerates towards renewable and storage. And you can see on the left-hand side what we have today across a range of different supply sources. And also, so you can see that in terms of gas-fired generation, pumped hydro, the VPP, and also Araring, which continues to play a vital role over the coming years, and combining that with a competitive fuel supply portfolio. And a good development pipeline as we target four to five gigawatts of renewables and storage by 2030. We have made very good progress this year with 1.7 gigawatts of batteries underway in the two to four hour range. We'll talk through those. The 1.5 gigawatt Yanko Delta wind farm development project and a broader development portfolio of up to three gigawatts of wind and solar and storage developments. APLNG on the next slide, 11, is a world-class coal seam gas resource and LNG infrastructure. It's backed by strong operating capability and it's making a valuable contribution to the domestic market. APLNG has over 15,000 petajoules of resources and reserves, with greater than 50% of those available beyond the current export contracts. It's underpinned by low cost of supply, long-term contracts, and as I said earlier, with a focus on the ramp-up of optimisation activities that we've been undertaking over many years, and that's our near-term focus today. APLNG continues to play a very material and supportive role for customers on the Australia's east coast with 25% of sales delivered to the domestic market. Turning to Octopus, it has significant global growth opportunities and leading energy technology. UK retail and Kraken continue to exceed expectations. They're rapidly growing and they're now investing in growth of the non-UK retail and energy services business. You can see there, they're the largest energy retailer in the UK with 13.3 million accounts. They're up 10% since December 23. And they now have 1.8 million accounts in non-UK retail markets, a doubling in the last 12 months. And the organic growth between two of those, both UK and non-UK, is about 200,000 monthly organic customer account growth. In Kraken, they had 62 million customer accounts on the platform at December 24. That was up 22%. They are closing in, as I said, on the 100 million customer account target, and that would translate to greater than 500 million pounds of annual recurring revenue or ARR. Since December, they've now signed their first broadband customer, adding a further 2.3 million accounts to that 62 million. Octopus is now spending a lot of its time investing into a broader energy ecosystem, and by that we mean in low-carbon tech. They've made significant advances in their EV business and the translation of that to flexibility revenue, but now are really turning their attention to scaling up really a heat pump business that's attacking the gas boiler market in the UK. And we'll talk through that investment and also that opportunity. But that's where they are now focusing as a next limb of growth for the organisation. So on that note, I'll come back to talk about operational review and bring that together. But I'll hand over to Tony, who will talk you through the financial review.

Okay, thanks, Frank, and good morning, everyone. It's pleasing to be presenting such a solid first half of Fin Year 25. I'll start with slide 14, which is the profit bridge. As flagged in our guidance in August last year, the energy markets business was down on prior period, with the wholesale component of Fin Year 25 tariff stepping down. and higher coal procurement costs this period with the ending of the coal price cap. Turning to integrated gas, we've seen higher profit in our share of APLNG driven by higher LNG volumes and higher prices and a higher contribution as we flag from our LNG trading, which is also in line with where we guided. Our share of Octopus earnings was down slightly in the half. Strong earnings from the UK retail and Kraken licensing business was offset by an increased investment in the manufacturing and installation capability in their energy services segment. As we foreshadowed, APL&G now has moved into tax paying and this results in a lower tax expense at the origin level with those dividends now in that first half were 100% franked. Turning to slide 15, operating cash flow saw a slight improvement compared to the prior period. However, there's two items I'd like to call out. The change in working capital was impacted by the unwind of the Queensland bill relief, which was received, as you remember, June 2024. We've seen about $400 million of that unwind in the first half. And if I just... energy markets operating cash flow for that. We have cash conversion at sort of around 100% for energy markets in the first half, so reasonably strong. Cash tax paid, as we flagged in the quarterly, is higher this period due to a true up from the near 24 tax year. This really occurred due to higher energy markets earnings, unfranked dividends from APLNG having a lagged effect on installments. We forecast tax cash for Fin Year 26 to be materially lower. CapEx is higher in the period, reflecting investment in the large-scale battery storage projects that Frank highlighted earlier. Slide 16, the first half, Origin received 612 million in fully franked dividends from APL&G as APL&G moved to taxpaying in the second half of last financial year. Net of hedging, that amount was $562 million. At 100% APLNG level, the joint venture experienced strong operating cash flow for the first half of $3.2 billion after $400 million of tax payments. APL&G also repaid 301 million US of project finance during the period and held cash of 1.9 billion as at 31 December. And that's up slightly on the 30 June 2024 level. Turning to net debt on slide 17, that increased to $4 billion. That reflected higher cash tax paid this period and increase in capex from those large-scale battery investment program we've highlighted. Battery capex for all projects are tracking in line with the FID cases. If I just go to slide 18, which is the dividend, the board has increased the dividend to a fully franked interim dividend of 30 cents per share. This is up from 25 cents per share. This reflects a strong balance sheet, strong cash generation from two diversified businesses and a robust outlook. The dividend is fully franked and we expect dividends to be fully franked for the foreseeable future. If I just go to slide 19, capital structure, adjusted net debt to EBITDA has increased to one and a half times, up from one times at the end of the June financial year last, then year 24. This reflects an increase in the net debts, which I discussed earlier. We expect net debt to continue to increase through 25 and peak in mid-fin year 26 as we deliver that battery investment project program. It probably will be, probably I'd say around the middle of the range, depending on obviously market conditions. Batteries are expected to start to contribute earnings in the second half of Fin Year 26, and subject to market conditions and further growth, we'd expect net debt to start to track down from that forecast peak. If I just go to capital allocation, We have a rigorous investment evaluation process and we apply a disciplined approach to investment decisions. Our approach to capital allocation ensures there is strong competition between investing for growth and returns to shareholders. Consistent with this approach I outlined at our June 2024 investor briefing, the decision on balance sheet funding versus utilising third party capital. And we make this through either contracting, tolling or offtake agreements. And it's really based on whether we can gain the same level of operational control or value. Where we can replicate the operational control or benefit through contracting, we'll seek to utilise third party capital. and underpin that asset with a contracting arrangement. Evidence of that is in our 1.7 gigawatt large scale battery commitment, 740 megawatts of this is off balance sheet being super node one and two and the Summerfield project. For renewable assets such as Yanko Delta, we may acquire the development opportunity on balance sheet, but we'll move to utilize third party capital prior to the construction phase. we would seek to underpin that asset with an offtake agreement. And we've shortlisted key contractors and commenced early stage financing discussions on the Yanko Delta project consistent with this strategy. Turning to slide 21, energy markets EBITDA decreased $306 million to $738 million for the first half. As previously indicated, the flow-through of lower wholesale allowance in the retail tariff and the higher procurement costs this period for coal as that market coal cap finished resulted in a reduction in electricity EBITDA of $196 million this period. Gas contribution also reduced. This is due to lower market prices flowing through to business customers and wholesale trading volumes reducing. We saw a partial offset through an increase in retail prices, which was recovering prior period cost increases. Cost to serve increased relative to prior period. However, this included the commencement of the Kraken licensing fees and the prior period having the Kraken stabilization project costs sitting outside of underlying. Pleasingly, through the period, we've seen bad and doubtful debts reduced by 36 million this period. We're well underway and confident of delivering the $100 million to $150 million cost-out target for Fin Year 26, and we'd expect the full Year 25 result to show an improvement in cost to serve on Fin Year 24. Turning to integrated gas EBITDA, it's up $250 million in prior period, with $94 million coming from origin share of AP LNG, and that's on the back of those higher LNG volumes and prices I talked about. a further $156 million increase coming through integrated gas other, and that's primarily from the LNG trading gains of $285 million for the first half. That's partially offset by a $50 million loss on oil and FX hedging. Turning to the contribution from Octopus, Origin's share of Octopus' underlying EBITDA was a loss of 24 million. UK retail business performed strongly, delivering positive EBITDA of 25 million for our share relative to the small loss we experienced in the prior period. As on the back of organic growth, full period of the shell acquisition and lower re-go prices. Last financial year, you'll remember the seasonality of earnings and that UK retail business sees most of that contribution coming in the second half, and we'd expect the same in this financial year. Kraken Technology delivered EBITDA of 22 million. Our share, live accounts, as Frank indicated on that platform, was 40 million with contracted, sitting around 62 million, and that's delivering at the moment an ARR in excess of 300 million pounds. Octopus increased its investment in energy services by $45 million, which was our share this period, as they scale this business. The energy service business, as Frank's indicated, encompasses EVs, solar, batteries and heat pumps. Octopus has invested in proprietary IP and technology and manufacturing and install capability, really to capture the value of the significant opportunity in electrification of that UK gas boiler to heat pump transition. The increased investment in the energy service business results in a lower forecast for Octopus for the full year, and you'll see we've adjusted our guidance for Octopus accordingly. We still expect a strong contribution from both the UK retail and Kraken technology to deliver an overall positive contribution. And Frank will touch on that in the guidance section. So with that, I'll hand back to Frank.

OK, thanks very much, Tony. Now we'll turn to the operational review and move through to energy markets. And you can see on slide 26 just... The way that we have grown the retail business substantially since 2020 and to position ourselves in this market, it's obviously overall translated to over 500,000 customer account growth since 2020. But along that journey, you can see there, in addition to competing hard every day, we've grown the CES business both organically and inorganically. to be the number one residential embedded networks business. We've established Origin Zero. We've built and grown our own VPP, which now is 1.5 gigawatts. We made the Octopus investment and we've completed our customer migration onto Kraken. We've strengthened the channels by owning those through acquisition of aggregators and most recently the solar quotes business. And we've grown our broadband business and have entered into a new agreement with Superloop. And that's all translating to value over that period. And we continue to focus on that in a market that I believe will continue to have value that moves towards the customer over time. We have a relentless focus on continuous improvement. You can see there on slide 27, an improving customer experience, whether that's through the Trustpilot score. Customer happiness on average is 67% for the half year. I can tell you over the last two months, I think that's been sitting around 73%. So we've got some momentum there. And we really are seeing the benefits of Kraken flowing through every day, not just in terms of cost, but also in terms of just servicing our customers. And we expect to see those benefits continue to flow forward. It's very much linked. A lot of people will talk about AI. I think the deployment we can see and our focus on use cases is very much in the customer service space. We've highlighted there what's now being managed through our Magic Ink in terms of email responses. And you can see what that's done in terms of response times, call transcription, but also just what it does to quality and we're deploying it very much in terms of that high interaction. We also now have an AI voice agent that we're trialling and we'll continue to develop that. It is certainly simplifying our user experience and enabling significant reduction in training time. So we can see some momentum and benefits to flow from that as we continue to deploy it. And then in terms of product development, you can see on the right hand side, products that can orchestrate distributed customer assets like our EV power up, faster speed to market. We'd expect to see that happening in terms of campaigns, app updates, innovation, the deployment of credit decision engines, which is also Tony said to you that that's played a key role in the improvement we've achieved over the last six months in bad and doubtful debts and also payment channels. We continue to focus on personalisation when it comes to both products and pricing. On slide 28, you can see the growing customer account base, 57,000 customer accounts across electricity, gas, LPG, broadband, home assist. And that has continued into February. We're up another 20,000 over the last month or two, translating to an improvement in customer lifetime value. And we're pleased in terms of where we're winning and retaining across the segments in the market. And we continue to have a meaningful churn below market. on the right-hand side and certainly multi-product bundling and customer service and experience contribute to that and we would expect to continue to perform better over time. Cost reduction on slide 29, I mentioned earlier, in terms of the target we've set ourselves, you can see that's driven by a variety of initiatives on the right-hand side, some of which I've already covered. It goes to the operating model that flows, and it really is continuously improving. Licence fees have come in. But overall, it's a much lower IT cost of running this platform. And we would continue to expect to see that momentum in the second half and also into the 26th. I mentioned earlier the businesses we were growing, community energy services, you can see the customer account growth and gross profit. And that continues to happen, particularly as we go into high density housing, medium density housing, which is where we We have a strong position and broadband. You can see the growth in customers. But at the same time, we moved on to the Superloop platform over the last six months. That's meant we've been able to integrate our customer experience to be much more seamless and obviously benefited from a strategic stake in Superloop. I've touched on those partnerships on the right-hand side, which are really all about improving our proposition to customers, our access to market and the quality of everything we do every day. Turning to Origin Zero, it's growing a broad suite of services to corporate customers, and you can see some of those strategic accounts on the left-hand side. The percentage of customers that are large customers that are on a broader suite of services, whether that's digital insight, subscription, solar, storage, VPP, embedded networks, And you can see that that's now grown to over 20%. We're also very much focused on industrial electrification through Climate Tech Zero, in which we own 20% as well. We've continued to grow electric vehicles under management. You can see that's now greater than 1,100. We have over 150 business customers through leasing and subscription products. And we clearly are growing the number of corporate customers in which we now make that offering. And that continues to grow very well. Just turning to energy supply now, you can see here the battery portfolio. First thing is that the construction activity is progressing in line with our expectations, both on time and cost. And so the first thing to probably point out is that the Araring Stage 1, which includes the expansion, and Supernode Stage 1, we would expect to be making a contribution in the second half of the 26th financial year. You can also see that, obviously, that's now sort of 1.7 gigawatts. By dividing the storage megawatt hours to the capacity, you can tell which are four and two hours. Clearly, stage one's four hours. Stage two, it's also four hours, more like two. super node stage one, two, and then you can see the last two super node stage two and Summerfield are all four hours. You can see a trend towards four hours. And if you take that capex on the right hand side and divided it by the megawatt hours, you can sort of see the average cost per kilowatt hour there. And you will see that as we've made those investments from the very first Raring Stage 1, which is sitting at around $600 a kilowatt hour, you'll see that the Raring Stage 2 and others are actually now moving down into the $400 kilowatt hour. That obviously does vary if you're in a two or four hour. But very pleased with how that's going and look forward to the contributions. And as Tony pointed out, The capex cycle for this is strongly this calendar year and into the 26th, but we'll be over that soon. What we highlight on the next slide is the energy supply in response to clearly what happens a lot in the energy market can be complex. So what we've highlighted are how under different conditions we run that portfolio and we've chosen two different dates. On the left hand side, we've shown an oversupply day on the 26th of December. And here you can see what we do is we run minimum generation. We maximise pool purchases during those negative prices. And that's what we're striving to do on those days where there is oversupply. There are many days, as you know, that are happening in that context. And we could even be pumping at our shoal haven, which increases that short position. Then if you highlight it on the right-hand side, that's a very high demand day, and that's on the 7th of November in New South Wales. And in those days, we're seeking to maximise our generation. That's RARing gas peakers during those high prices. And on that particular day, we had one unit of our ring unavailable based on planned outage, just to highlight that sensitivity. And also we'll have contractual protection in place. We'll have cap contracts that also took effect on that day. So you can see that length if you looked at that supply bar, even in excess of demand on that day. That just highlights, I mean, obviously days dramatically differ all the way through, but that gives you a sense of what can be happening in the market and how we respond with that flexibility on a day-to-day basis. Turning to electricity gross profit, we are tracking in line with the medium-term target. And I'll start on the right-hand side. And so the medium-term target we provided of $25 to $40 a megawatt hour, that target range includes the committed battery investments. We would have said previously that was based on the four to five gigawatts. Today, we would see that we will achieve within that range even just based on the committed battery investments. It includes existing gas-fired generation, it includes the current retail margin and it also includes exiting a RARing. What it doesn't include is any additional investments we might make in renewables and storage, doesn't include any growth in retail or the VPP flexibility margin. So we continue to remain confident about that and execution over the last six months and market developments continue to support our views on that. If you went to the left-hand side, electricity prices, forward prices, obviously a key driver of what happens year to year. You can see that the traded volumes to date indicate a moderate increase, but we do have several months to go for those wholesale prices feeding into the regulated tariff for 26, but you can see that indication. We would expect some of that to be offset, any increase we receive by some higher wholesale costs, just the normal swap and cap prices we'd be entering into. Then if we turn to the middle chart on coal prices, we have consistent with what we'd said in the quarterly, we've contracted 55% of coal volume for FY26. And those prices are broadly in line with the financial year 25. If you looked at current forward prices for the 26 right now, they are broadly in line with expected 25 costs. So whilst we've still got more volume to contract, if they were contracted at the current forward price, we would expect that trend of what you've seen for the 55% to continue. If you turn to the gas margins, you can see the pattern of, on the left-hand side this time, the prices have declined from the extreme highs in 23. There's a tighter domestic supply expected in the medium term, but we've seen prices come back off over the last 12 or so months. The medium-term target of $3 to $4 a gigajoule remains our target range and confident of that. For FY25, we expect that to moderate, and that's largely played out in the first half. I think first half is more so than second. But you can see that's really lower market prices. But we remain within that range of $3 to $4 a gigajoule. And as you turn to FY26, clearly we have a sale to GLNG of 35 petajoules that frees up gas. and should benefit the FY26, we will have normal contract escalations as we buy more gas into the market that occurs that partially offsets that. We continue to have a good mix of long-term gas supply that enables us to operate in a market that has gas demand between customers, obviously large and small, but also our gas-fired generation fleet. Now turning to integrated gas, turning to slide 37, you can see that revenue has increased. Looking at the middle chart, it's higher LNG volumes and higher realised export prices and also short-term domestic prices. So that driving a higher revenue overall. And on costs, unit costs have remained really around that $4 a gigajoule. We've had higher work over activity and power prices, and we've also invested in well optimisation. But at the same time, we've had lower cyclical maintenance and lower exploration that's enabled us to keep those operated unit costs there. And we've had some higher power prices and development activity in non-operated, but still holding that unit cost at around $4 a gigajoule. Then as we turn to production on slide 38, you can see that production is up 3.5 petajoules or 1% on the equivalent half last year. There's no turndown this year, to be clear, which really occurred through an LNG vessel power outage. And we have had benefits from ongoing well and field optimisation activities and cyclical maintenance in Reedy Creek, and Reedy Creek's performing well, What we did highlight in the quarterly is exactly those same comments there, that we've had lower fuel performance in Kondabrai, Talinga and Orana, really following the cumulative events of those cumulative turndown events. And there's been some lower production in the non-operated fields due to underperformance and unplanned facility maintenance. You can really see on the right-hand side chart the impact of that turndown and the operated production since then. There's a little bit more depth on that when you go into slide 39. So, really, recent production has been impacted by those. It's lower than expected optimisation benefits. We've had a good track record of strong production and low drilling, and that's enabled us to be focused on field optimisation. And I think you can really see that highlight on the left-hand side of the operated and non-operated production and the operated wells drilled since the 2019 financial year. That operated production since then has enabled us just to manage natural field decline and offset a reduction of 18 petajoules in the non-operated assets. And we've done that through well availability of our workovers up to 90%. We've improved mean time to failure by 78%. We clearly have lowered flowing bottom hole pressure that's optimised those wells where deep bottlenecking surface infrastructure And the drilling program is therefore just focused on where we can utilise available capacity at the processing facilities. On the right-hand side, you can just see the turndown events in the Kondabrai, Talinga and Orana, and the large event in November 23. And the production challenge is there following that. We have reduced the flowing bottom hole pressure But it hasn't reduced to the target we would have liked based on the planned activity we were executing on our planned activity. And therefore, the relationship between the two has meant that it hasn't achieved the target. And as a result, we've got to ramp those activities up. And that's really what we're focusing on in the near term. Which then takes me to slide 40 about the near-term focus, which is on those optimisation activities to manage natural field decline. You can see there that that is really driven by a ramp-up in optimisation activities. What do we mean by that? It's really artificial lift system conversions. Depending on the well types, there are different ALS conversions we'll make. There's solids mitigation and then there's downhole design optimisations. And those will deliver short cycle production at a low cost. So think about that as being the most NPV accretive opportunities. And that's why we focus on them. And that's why we've been doing that over the last several years. And then there's sustained development drilling that will continue. And really the timing of that is really just all associated with regulatory approvals, land access. And you would expect us to go through the joint venture and make good decisions around those drilling opportunities. In the medium term, sorry, the joint venture has choices around Reedy Creek and Combabula, lots of opportunities to drill there, to accelerate low-cost gas, and it's high-performing, those fields, so we've been very pleased with its performance. The one thing about that part of the APLNG area, if I could use that expression, is that it's facility-contrained today, so it's all around where we bring that drilling in and also the choice is available to us to increase processing capacity if we choose to make that decision to invest. And then clearly the other medium term opportunities are drilling new wells and tying them into existing facilities, noting that lead time from planning to production is over the next two to three years, and obviously exploration and appraisal to convert more resources to reserves. When we provided our guidance of the quarterly day, that reflected the near-term focus that you can see above and maximising facility throughput. And that's the way you should see about our priorities right now and the benefits that flow from it. Just a commercial update on a few things. LNG price review. We previously disclosed it has a price review notice from Sinopec. The contract requires parties to use reasonable endeavours to agree a price competitive with the prevailing market price for comparable long-term LNG contracts. Either party can refer the matter to expert determination. It is effective from 1 January 2025. So we've got the notice, so you should expect that things are underway in that process. But can't say anything further at this stage. And just gave a sensitivity below that if for plus or minus 1%, that would mean a plus or minus $110 million to $130 million Australian dollars to EBITDA, and that's obviously after royalties. Just a reminder to investors, we had a cargo deferral in 2008 by an AAPLNG buyer where they elected to defer cargoes for six years but paid for those at that time. And the buyer can request make-up cargoes from 2025 for the duration of the contract. And as we progressively deliver those, that benefit or the liability, sorry, the liability to deliver them will unwind. And a further reminder that we also, in 2018, entered into a gas purchase from QCL&G. That commenced in January 24. That's 350 petajoules over 10 years. It's an oil-linked deal in 2018. And you'll see that when purchases increased in January 24, but also when you look at our first half-year sales volumes up, you can see we're getting the benefit of those volumes coming through to our results. I mentioned earlier the LNG trading on slide 42. I mentioned it, but you can see there 400 to 450 million range expected to be the upper end. Half one delivered 285 million. And in FY26, clearly lower proportion hedged completely away, but it's expected to deliver a benefit between 50 and 150 million in EBITDA. And just to really highlight that this comes from the long-term nature of the Comoran contract, which does position us well. It's a Henry Hub linked volume that comes out of there. And we're finding that that is a strong position as we think about those volumes, European, Asian prices and markets. Turning to Octopus, clearly I've talked about these two businesses. They are world class. Main point to note here is that the operational separation is complete. They are running as separate businesses. And during 2024, mid 2024, a new CEO was appointed to Kraken. as it delivers on its growth ambitions. And so that demonstrates further evidence of the trajectory that these businesses are on, their various paths. Some highlights on 45 just highlights just how strong they are seen by their customers in the UK compared to any other competitor by the YouGov survey. They are attracting greater than 40% of the markets, which is... While they're competitive on price, they're certainly not the leaders of price in the market, and they certainly have a churn significantly lower than the rest of the market. It's driven by a whole range of things, just operating model brand, ability to compete, respond, speed. And they currently have 25% market share and it is growing at around 3% per quarter. The big thing today compared to several years ago is that they're really, their acquisition costs are dramatically lower. They're greater than 30% lower than in the last two years and the prior six years. And that's really through the strength of the brand and internal channels growing over time. They're now seeking to replicate that scale on slide 46 through to several deregulated markets outside the UK. You can see in Europe principally, but also Japan, where there's a joint venture with Tokyo Gas. They've doubled those customer accounts in the last year. They have prudently allocated capital to invest in the growth, and they're really just focused on replicating those success factors in the UK, which are really around customer service, fair pricing, innovative products, that same efficiency and cost to serve. And you can see just the dynamics in those markets in terms of switch rates, smart meter penetration, size of market through households and the growth that they've achieved in the last 12 months. Now turning to services, it's investing, as I said earlier, in the energy services to grow customer lifetime value through low carbon tech, heat pumps, EVs and chargers, solar and batteries and smart meters. And really the customer lifetime value comprises the margin on the businesses themselves, the equipment, the installation, the aftercare, and then also the value of the flexibility and orchestration. and building on really the strong brand and scale in the UK market. Heat pumps is the big market here in terms of the gas boilers. Over 1.6 million are installed. You can see the government is supporting the conversion of heat pump installs. And they've invested, as Tony said earlier, in a technology and installation network to address that opportunity. When it comes to EVs and chargers, they've been in this market for a while. They're the largest EV fleet in the UK and largest installer and public charging network. That has translated through now to the fact that they have over 200,000, I think, EV customers translating to 1.5 gigawatts that they're managing under their equivalent of the VPP. And solar and batteries are growing, certainly growing in their market as more installations occur. That low carbon tech really on that customer lifetime value you can see has really driven the services by, if you thought about those three bars or four bars on the right-hand side, core business is energy supply. The energy services would be that sort of margin installation and that aftercare, if you want to call that, maintenance. and flexibility orchestration. They are what drive it overall. And clearly, they have a vertically integrated position, a highly engaged customer base, national coverage, proprietary hardware and software, and ability to access those flexibility revenues. And to date, the customer experience has been very strong. Turning to Kraken, you can see that operating system. We've highlighted this slide really to sort of just really bring to life. We would have talked customer Previously, there was the flex, but now really that's moving into field and grid. And therefore, the number of utility types that it's supporting at the bottom of the screen is extended beyond electricity, gas to in water, wastewater and broadband and really highlights the customer account growth. The difference between contracted and live very clearly is lives when it starts driving revenue. Contracted is really when they win the customer. So there's a lag between the two, but certainly developing a track record of implementation. And you can see that getting to the 100 million accounts, which they're very confident of by 2027, that would translate in excess of 500 million pounds of ARR at strong margins. Clearly, things they're focused on now is landing customers in markets beyond the UK and Europe and the US in particular. So then turning to the outlook and wrap up, what we have done here is just summarise the guidance. And in the appendix is all of the commentary you would have previously seen on this slide. We've unchanged. We're feeling good about the energy markets business for the 2025 year, but we've not changed the guidance to that. But based on first half, feeling good about the overall business. performance of that business. I've talked about the LNG trading EBITDA being at the upper end. The investment in services will mean that the Octopus Energy EBITDA will be less than 100 million. And what we've included really is the total CapEx, just so you've got an indication of what we expect that CapEx to be over the course of this year. Clearly, when you're actually dealing with projects, you can always have timing of payments and everything, but if it all tracks the plan, we'd expect it to be there. And the APL&G guidance is consistent with what we updated on the 31st of January. And the last thing, which we won't cover today, but just for the benefit of all of you on the call, The strategy and ambition remain the same. The pillars of our strategy remain the same. And if you have a look in the appendix, you'll see how we're tracking towards all of our targets as medium-term targets and ambitions. And we continue to track that performance, but we felt that could be included in the appendix and available for your information. So on that note, I will now pause and we will open for questions.