2/18/2021

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the South 32 H1 FY21 Financial Results and Outlook Investor and Analyst Briefing UK and SA. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation, opening remarks, followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Graham Kerr, CEO of Please go ahead.

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Good morning everyone and thanks for joining us for our financial results conference call for the half year end of December 31, 2021. I'm joined at my end by our Chief Financial Officer Katie Kovic and on the lines I have our two Chief Operating Officers Jason Economides and Mike Fraser to answer any questions you might have around their operations. Look, I'll start by just calling out we provided a short video that provided an overview of our financial results and it's available on our website. But then if we take a step back and think where are we today, a couple of introductory comments. Look, we have a simple strategy we've had in place since day one of the merger that we believe is still fit for purpose across all cycles. It's underpinned by a strong balance sheet and disciplined allocation of capital, and it's built around three simple pillars. Optimise the existing operations, unlock the potential of those operations, and identify new opportunities to grow the portfolio. If you sort of look at those in slices and start with optimise, look, it was really great to see another period of good operating performance by the heads of the operations. We achieved three records of production for the half, at Worsley, Illumina, Brazil, Illumina and Jemco. We also upgraded full-year guidance at Illawarra Metallurgical Coal, Cerro Matosa and Kennington. And the work that's been done on the volume efficiency and cost control means that unit costs are well controlled despite the strengthening currencies we're actually seeing. It was really pleasing to see, and you'll see it in the slide pack, our core markets are rebounding. and we're starting to see prices increase as we start calendar year 2021, which has given us confidence for going forward. Today, you would have seen that we are paying a dividend, 1.4 cents per share, and we increased our capital management program by US$250 million, which means we've got $259 million to be returned by early September 21. We sort of move to the next pillar of the strategy about Unlocked, There's some great examples in the pack about what's been done in the operations to unlock the full potential of the business. After doing a great job with Les Esmeralda, the team at Cerro Matosa have now accelerated the development of the Q&P project at Cerro, and they're also progressing numerous improvement and life extension studies across the business to get us to a sustainable level and increase the life of Cerro Matosa. At the same time, we're in the middle of rolling out the energy efficiency technology at Moselle and studying its application to be rolled out at Hillside. And, of course, we're doing all the work around the decarbonisation studies that were spoken about in the past as we get prepared to release our updated targets later this calendar year. In terms of our mix of growing or changing the portfolio, we continue to exit lower returning businesses. In the half, Temco's sale was complete. metal lawyers on care and maintenance, who have made some good progress on South African energy coal with a couple of significant milestones. At the same time, we unlocked value through the sale of a non-core precious metals royalty portfolio, the US $55 million to Elementium. At the same time, you know, there were a few surprises in the period. I'm sure we'll touch on it. But the Independent Pending Commission's decision on refusing dendrobium next domain for the... Expansion projects certainly come as a surprise to ourselves and our stakeholders, and we can talk through the implications of that. On top of the things that we're working on that way, we've also made good progress, if you like, on the pipeline of growth options, particularly around Hermosa, where we continue to progress the Taylor study to be completed into quarter four, and the Clark to be finished in the first half of FY22 with regards to a scoping study. The Ambler PFS is progressing and will be back on the ground with expiration this season. following the COVID impact for the previous year. At the same time, you know, we've got 20-plus exploration partnerships where we have with junior companies for the bias towards base metals. So, in summary, our balance sheet remains strong. We exited the half of $275 million net cash, and that has grown to US$452 million by the end of January with working capital unwinding. Our buyback is continuing, and we have major catalysts coming up that will move the quality of the portfolio in the coming year as we start to see a strong uptick in our prices. With that, I'll open it up to questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star 2. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Tim Clark with SBG Securities. Please go ahead.

speaker
Tim Clark
Analyst, SBG Securities

Hi there, thanks. Congratulations on the results. Just a couple of quick questions on those new projects, the SERO project and then a GEMCO project. Just the life of mines there, sort of nine years and 5.7, six years. So I just wondered if you could comment on the project versus life. And then my second question, I really appreciate a little bit of color on the Cannington volumes, upgrades, what's happening there, why? Why the high volumes, and does that also impact the 11-year life, or is it just better recovery? Thank you.

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

Well, maybe we'll start with Sarah, and I'll get Mike. Maybe you can talk about the projects in the pipeline and where the team's up to there. Hi.

speaker
Mike Fraser
Chief Operating Officer

Good morning, Tim. Thanks for the question. Look, Sarah has been on a really interesting journey, and one of the things that underpins CERO's life is what we call contract 051, which is essentially the concession agreement that determines our arrangements with the mining agency. The first part of the contract runs through to 2029, but we have an option agreement to extend the life for a further 15 years to 2044. And the option agreement requires us to pay an additional one-off royalty of around $42 million to obtain that life extension. Obviously, we've been working with the mining agency around the terms of that extension, particularly given when this was negotiated in 2012, the conditions have changed. So we're looking at alternative ways of structuring that payment. But the projects that we're looking at are all options that we believe provide a very good return, even within this initial period of the contract, i.e. until 2029. In particular, Cresces and Povinier, as Graham has said, it's an additional satellite deposit which provides us the opportunity of increasing the nickel grade and provides a sweetener in the same way that Los Esmeraldas did to provide us with a lift in – nickel production over the next nine years. The second project that's been explored is the mechanical ore concentration project, which also provides us an opportunity of lifting production by increasing the nickel ore content over the next nine years. What is also interesting about the mechanical ore concentration project is that in the life extension option to 2044, one of the requirements was to lift the processing capacity by 50%. And this mechanical oil concentration, whilst the economics pay back within the next nine years more than sufficiently, it also meets that other condition on the life extension. So it kind of hits both those bubbles. But what is important to take away is that even without that decision to extend the life These projects are all hugely value accretive with very, very good IRRs and allows us to really deliver a nickel volume of around that 40 to 42 kilotons over the remaining life. But again, if we make that decision to extend the life to 2044, this gives us a really good base to continue there.

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

And probably worth noting, Mike, you know, reflective of those good IRs, it's actually not very large amounts of capital. And the team, I think, have shown what they can do with less esmeralda when they deliver that quicker and at a lower cost than what the original estimate was. That's quite correct. TVOK, can we move on to Cannington next?

speaker
Tim Clark
Analyst, SBG Securities

Thanks. That was very helpful.

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

Jason, do you want to talk a little bit about Cannington?

speaker
Jason Economides
Chief Operating Officer

Sure. So in short, it's a combination of bringing forward some high-grade stoaps, but also higher production. But what we are working on is creating some longer life at the back end with some additional stoaps and remnants in the tail. So that's the production profile for Cannington.

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

Maybe just a little bit of detail on the shaft, potentially, and the work around that that we'll probably conclude in the next six months is worth sharing as well, Jason?

speaker
Jason Economides
Chief Operating Officer

Yeah, thanks, Graeme. Yeah, so we are busy at the moment working through a progression to not use the shaft for hoisting, but to go to 100% trucking. That will actually also give us access to high-grade stoves that were positioned around the shaft itself, which has actually been quite value-accreted for us.

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

So, Tim, that's probably Canton. If you like, I'll take the last one around, Jemco. Look, I mean, Jemco, as you rightly point out, at the moment has a resource life of about 5.7, and that has a... sorry, reserve life of 5.7 and a resource of about 11. The eastern leases, if you like, are certainly designed to basically add at least three more years into the reserve life. You know, it is relatively low capex. It's currently into the feasibility study, and we would aim to make a final investment decision towards the back end of FY22. On top of that, we think, look, there are a couple of years on top of that that probably haven't been included in the resource reserve that will eventually move across. But probably the big opportunity for us lies in the southern east areas where we're relatively unexplored. We're in the second stage of an exploration project there. Yeah, that's a two-year program which basically has about 94 kilometres of drill lines and 792 infill RC drill holes. You know, that program commenced in October 20. We've done about 221 holes at the end of December. Exploration will restart this year when the dry season commences in 21, been the wet season at the moment. And we expect that to be completed by the end of 2021 in terms of calendar year. I think, look, the opportunity there is the resource is large. It's not well explored. So this exploration program is going to be important to understand the potential. But as we have mentioned historically in the past, I think we're also conscious of the area of probably more cultural heritage significance with traditional owners. So we also work with them about what will be available to really give you some colour yet on that. We just don't know if it's going to be 2, 5, 10, 15 years until we've actually finished the program.

speaker
Tim Clark
Analyst, SBG Securities

Thanks, Grant. That's very useful.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thanks. Your next question comes from Myles Alsop with UBS. Please go ahead.

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

Yeah, maybe just to go into a little bit more detail, so I didn't listen to the call overnight on dendrobium and the implications for Illawarra, the options you have. Does Illawarra stack up as a sort of single long wall, medium term, or are we talking about potential closure in four years if you cannot find a way forward with the watercourses? That's the first question.

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, so maybe let's sort of break those into a couple of components. We'll talk a little bit about the IPC, then we'll talk about what it means, implications, and if we decide not to progress with the resubmission, what does that look like? I mean, what we would start by saying, yeah, it's all submission that was made to the government and then referred on to the Independent Planning Commission was around Area 5 and Area 6. You know, the government was very supportive in terms of what we were doing there, in terms of how we were managing the water issues, the cultural heritage issues and the mine planning and subsidence, et cetera. The Independent Planning Commission, unfortunately, last Friday, so that's relatively fresh, surprised ourselves, the government, our supporters of the project and probably the opponents of the project with the refusal to actually, you know, give us approval to go forward. I think the other thing that probably disappointed us was there was not really an opportunity to actually address, if you like, some of their concerns, which we think are factually incorrect. So that was probably disappointing from our side. But the reality is, look, we take our environmental responsibilities very seriously there. We've been working in that sensitive area in terms of under the water catchment for a period of time. Yeah, we'll continue to engage all our stakeholders to understand the right way forward. If you think about what's in front of us, what we can do now, there are essentially four avenues that are there. One is to actually appeal the decision. That appeal is based on process and not merits. There are a number of instruments which the government has to intervene and overturn. the IPC, if you like, decision, that's sitting there as well. There actually has been a bill raised by one of the independents, if you like, into legislation about trying to get that moving. There is also the option for us to submit a revised plan that addresses some of the concerns from the IPC, or we can accept the decision and optimise the business, if you like, without Dendrobium Next Domain. What we have guided the market to at the moment, because that decision was made last Friday, what we are doing, obviously, at the moment is understanding all our options, talking to each of the stakeholders, like the government, where we can, some of the key customers and all key stakeholders, such as Blue Scope, et cetera. And there was a roundtable held by the government this week in Illawarra, which Jason participated in, just to understand all the options that sit in front of us. And at the same time, what we're doing is also looking at a plan for D&D or Dendrobium Next Domain area, which would really... Area 5, which would really focus, if you like, on minimising, while we're going to agree with them, some of the concerns that the IPC raised. Clearly, we want to complete that plan to understand the economic impact. What does it actually mean for returns? Because we're not interested in doing a project that's not value-accretive to our actual business. At the same time, Just in case that is not the option that we choose to pursue, we are continuing to look at ways to optimise the Athens complex and also what's left at Dendrobium. So if we sort of break that into components, you know, the way we talked about Dendrobium Next Domain is we needed that to sort of come online around 2025. We have some alternate areas that we can look at in terms of the mining areas that we can work in, such as Area 3C. The first probably almost two long walls or one and a half long walls are pretty easy to mine. After that, it would require a bit of time for gas extraction. There is some options around remnant material that's left at dendrobium, which is actually mine as well, so that's something the team will look at. At the same time, equally important is what we've been doing at Appen in the background. Now, obviously, we returned last April to the three-wall long configuration around the complex, i.e. the two in Appen, and at that time, we've been upgrading the guidance about how we've been performing. And, you know, the hybrid plan at Appen at the moment is certainly working well by maximising the productivity of the two longwall faces. And that will continue over the next three years before we transition to a simplified mine layout. And we'll talk about that in a second. If you think about, you know, where are we today? You know, Appen itself... You know, that's probably running at about a unit cost at the moment, about $112 a tonne. And then it's probably about $27 a tonne, which is basically sustaining capex. As we go into the next phase of APEN, where we increase the long wall length, which reduces the number of long wall moves, it takes away some of the delay relocating lawn walls, obviously, and have benefits for productivity and costs. It also means that we have 30 kilometres of underground development to do. We go from four vent shafts to four. We go from seven to four continuous miners. And our gas rigs drop as well. We believe, you know, without optimising it, that sort of takes you to a number which is probably much closer to somewhere between $105, $110 a tonne all in. Clearly Jason and the team also think they have some opportunities to improve that around what they could do around alternate access as the mine gets older and further away and some other productivity metrics. Their target in that case would be pushing Appen only closer to $100 a tonne. But clearly the preferred case for us, if the economics stack up, would be to do Dendrobium Next Domain because it allows you to basically, if you like, average the costs. The only other thing you shouldn't sort of lose sight of is, generally speaking, while higher costs, Appen does attract a higher premium. But in saying that, if you move into Dendrobium Next Domain, you start achieving that anyway. Does that sort of help, Myles, around that?

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

Yeah, that's helpful, sir. Just to be clear with Appen, the all-ins, the unit cost plus sustaining after the optimisation would be $105 to $110 a tonne. Is that right?

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

Correct. Correct. So that will kick in from about beyond 2025. Okay.

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

Okay, that's helpful. So when will we...

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

So just on top of that, you know, we think there's more opportunity to optimise what we do in that space, that alternate access, et cetera, to push it closer to that $100 a tonne. OK.

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

And when will we get the next development here in terms of understanding which of those four avenues with dendrobium are going to be kind of sort of adopted as such?

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

Look, I would say certainly... When we'll get more clarity. OK. Very much by the end of this financial year, we would actually have a firm way forward in terms of what it looks like for costs and capex. If we decide to go down the appeal process, that is actually... You've got a three-month time limit to actually do that. And at that time, we'd probably start indicating before that, obviously, what our options are. The key, to be honest, at the moment, Myles, is to do the work around what the options are to understand what the value is for our shareholders and other stakeholders. And that takes a little bit of time to make sure we get that right.

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

And then the second question was just on South African Energy Coal. Hopefully we won't have to keep asking this every half. Soon it will all be over. Are you still absolutely confident that by the end of this quarter we'll have the deal done? Are there any risks to the deal? And then how are you thinking about reshaping the balance sheet after

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

the access and the provisions have gone. Yeah, I'll let Katie talk about the balance sheet, if you like, in a second, because that's in her domain. What I would say, though, at the moment is it was an interesting set of results when you look across our peer group. And, you know, if you look across Glencore, Australia, BHP Australia and Whitehaven, you know, there was about $1.5 billion worth of pain, if you like, US... Sorry, rough Australian in terms of and it's a very tough space to be at the moment, energy coal. I think you see that in our result for sake. Look, what I would say is, as we sort of progress this deal, if you look at those critical approvals, what actually has been clearly done, Miles, is section 11, Department of Minerals, Resources and Energy, is done with no onerous conditions. We obviously had a long process around South African competition. which is approved with no onerous conditions. We've been working really hard with ESCOM and Seriti about putting together a deal that sort of works for us, Seriti and ESCOM, by lowering the average cost of coal by putting the two businesses together. We feel that's in a strong place now where we're fairly aligned. And then it needs to go through, if you like, the governance process internally of ESCOM and then on to National Treasury. all the timelines, all the insurances are that we should meet that deadline by the end of this quarter. I think the only thing that sits in my mind is obviously there's two things going on in South Africa at the moment. that have probably slowed this down a little bit in the last three months, and hopefully we're behind those. And we've seen the back of a second wave, hopefully now, but obviously South Africa's been hit very hard by COVID cases, officially about 1.5 million, 46,000 deaths, whereas the media speculates it's well in excess of 100,000, and it's a country that was already reaming around fiscal challenges. you know their ability to fund put a vaccine out there has been a real stretch for them so that certainly had some impacts on people like national treasury and our ability to engage as they've been focused on other issues the other one that's sort of been bouncing around for the last couple of months is the zondo commission of inquiry into state capture has been going on for a period of time now since you know zuma left the presidency The last three or so months have been very much focused on ESCOM's involvement and the purchase of optimum quality by the Gupta affiliated group. So that certainly, if you like, had a number of current and previous ESCOM executives and senior people going through that process. So that's also slowed down involvement of people. And as you would expect and as we would want, it's resulting in them following it very carefully in terms of their governance framework into the letter of the law. They're just two things that are sort of playing in the background. Both of them seem to be heading more in a positive trajectory now, but obviously they're a little bit of two wild cards that sit out there. Okay. Balance sheet, Katie?

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

In terms of the balance sheet?

speaker
Katie Kovic
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thanks, Miles. Look, yeah, in terms of balance sheet, I mean, I think maybe just... sort of just as a refresher. We certainly still believe that a strong balance sheet is fundamental to our strategy. We don't believe in combining operational and financial leverage. So as we think about our balance sheet going forward, we will absolutely continue to maintain that same philosophy. We have talked about a net debt range of sort of zero to $250 million being our sort of optimal range in terms of our current structure. certainly post the divestment of SAIC and also Temco metalloids. We have said we'll come back with a re-look at that. I think the other thing not to forget is we actually... It's a fairly dynamic process for us in any case. We review our balance sheets six-monthly with a forward view in terms of what our capital profile looks like, you know, our capital intensity and so on. You know, while we'll come back, it will be an ongoing dynamic process as that capital profile changes, as our portfolio changes. But certainly, you know, the removal of SAIC specifically will improve our capital intensity as a business. You know, the removal of the rehabilitation provisions is also supportive of a more robust balance sheet in terms of certainly rating agency perspective. So all of those elements will be considered as we complete that work. And it's probably back end of April where we'll be in a better position to have that conversation with you again.

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

Okay, but we shouldn't just add the 800 million provisions to the flat to 250 million net debt and think that that's the new level going forward. It's going to be somewhere probably a bit less than that.

speaker
Katie Kovic
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, look, if you think about the provisions, they're actually just part of your denominator, so it's a ratio-based way that we think about this, so it's definitely not a direct translation.

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

Thanks, I'll let people ask questions. We'll come back.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. We'll just pause for a moment to allow questioners to enter the queue. We have a follow-up from Myles Alsop with UBS.

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

Okay, that's great. A few other questions I had, I wasn't sure. Just in terms of restructuring and how we, or how you guys are going to take the business forward, what other assets kind of sit kind of as marginal? How are you thinking about, you know, processing assets, you know, And in view of climate commitments and all the rest of it, how does aluminum sit in the portfolio longer term and other assets who is there?

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, so maybe break that into a couple of components. I mean, obviously, we have an aluminium chain, if you like, from bauxite to alumina to aluminium. We're a long in alumina. We would probably... Well, we'd never build another aluminium smelter, but I would say both Hillside and Moselle, for a period of time now, have been actually testing, if you like, their maximum technical capacity. And I think both Sam and Kelvin have done a great job in terms of not only managing the distraction of COVID-19 and the challenges, but also continuing to lower the cost base and improve the efficiency of those operations. And I think that's reflective of the margins you see in the presentation today that we're seeing the growth. Obviously, help by price, but also help by self-help. And from our perspective, I'm not sure in the current marketplace you'd want to be more long in a lunar. So there's sort of that connectivity for us. You do raise a good point, Myles, around, you know, carbon footprint. We also had a slide pack in there that talked about scope one, scope two. And clearly, when you look at the four operations that make a difference for us, It is Hillside, it is Modell, it is Worsey, it is Illawarra. Both Worsey and Illawarra have a number of the day carbonisation projects underway. Obviously, we've got a number of energy efficiency projects underway at both Modell and Hillside. At Modell, one of the, you know, challenges for Mike, Sam and the team is to try and secure the future energy supply in that space. And certainly in that space, we're working hard to continue to have that hydro preferential access that we have today to back that up with gas rather than coal from ESCOM as they develop the new fields in the north and likewise when it comes to hillside and Mike can give you an update in a second about how the power contract is going but there is a strong push there in South Africa to obviously move down a renewables path as well and also looking at gas as an option to potentially reduce some of the energy requirements or intensity So they're the kind of things we're talking about in that space. We do plan towards the back end of this calendar year to give some very clear targets and plans of what those decarbonisation milestones look like so we can share those with our investors. The team are working hard on the numbers now. Maybe, Mike, you can make a little bit of comments, if you like, around the ESCOM contract and where that's up to.

speaker
Mike Fraser
Chief Operating Officer

Yeah, thanks, Graeme. Look, it's been a long journey for us, but we've made excellent progress with ESCIM, and it's taken, you know, been engaging with ESCIM for around five years on resolving what initially was a dispute over the term, but then we realized that this needed to be resolved commercially. So what we have landed on is we've got an agreement with ESCIM around a new tariff structure for Hillside, which is very similar to the way that we structured Moselle, which is essentially a fixed RAND program price contract for all three pot lines, so a unified contract for a period of 10 years with a – it's got a PPI escalator on that. I think just – so where it's at in the process, we've got agreement with ESCOM. It's been through their internal processes, and it was submitted to NERSA, the energy regulator, in the beginning of January. They theoretically have 120 days to assess that. What is also pleasing and partly why it took so long to ultimately get to NERSA is that the regulator had asked the DMRE for an updated long-term incentive tariff policy for them to assess this against. And that was released also in around November. So that's all available now to NERSA to determine. And I think pleasingly this agreement is in line with that. So we should see very low level of anxiety because it will be aligned to that policy framework. So we feel quite good and we expect that to be delivered in this half.

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

The other thing you talked about... Sorry, Miles, keep going. I was just going to say, what's the relative cost differential of the power that you'll be paying under the new contract versus the current contract as the world looks today?

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

So, Tim, it's already embedded in there at the moment because of the interim agreement, so you're seeing that. The way I think about it in broad brushstrokes, as Mike described it, is think about the Moselle kind of cost of contract that's similar around that.

speaker
Mike Fraser
Chief Operating Officer

And, Mark, maybe the one thing that makes it really hard to determine is because you are moving away from a contract that was US dollar denominated and linked to the... the LME price to a fixed RAND based. It actually is very volatile from periods depending on where the currency is and depending on where the LME price is.

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

Miles, probably the other one worth coming in when you talk about portfolio obviously is the work we're doing on exploration, but probably more importantly for most of our AMBLA metals is the rebalance of the portfolio for base metals. You know, there's a couple of drivers to that. Obviously, one is around the demand-supply fundamental. And as you know, those are the kind of products that are used more, if you like, in the decarbonisation and greening. But I think the other option there is that both new operations, that certainly gives you the opportunity to have a much smaller, not only environment, you know, footprint overall, but obviously an impact on the climate. For example, we've been looking at things with tests around battery-operated trucks, electric equipment, underground with standing. So they all bring those kind of benefits. And obviously the other one is some of those will be used, you know, silver and solar panels from Taylor. And if you think about Clark, Now, that's a zinc manganese oxide resource, and that certainly tilts it towards the manganese sulphate monohydrate, which is a precursor for the battery market. So I think that helps to sort of move the portfolio away from those heavy and processing-intensive industries to those metals that are more suited to that growing demand and that opportunity.

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

It's always good to hear your views on the manganese market. Obviously, we've seen a bit of a recovery in the price, and how sustainable do you think that is as we look through the rest of this year?

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

Look, it's an interesting one because, obviously, we had a slide in the pack, as we always do, about some of the markets that matter to us, and manganese is certainly one of those. And you'll see that's in the pack towards the back end of the pack. It's actually on page... Just bear with me for a second... It's on page 28 of the pack. And what we're really showing there, I guess, is the continued charts that we're showing in the back but maybe before we touch the charts if we just touch on the themes you know global supply remains tight despite the rebound which is providing support to actual if you look at calendar year 21 the outlook you know will be driven by comply with alloy demand expected to remain strong as steel production actually stays strong Long-term, our view hasn't changed that the marginal cost of production will be set by supply transitioning underground over time. But probably the real informative chart that we show down at the bottom is, if you look at the bottom right-hand slide, you'll actually see in that space there that what you do see is while the stockpiles, which is the grey back area, have increased in China... The reality is the pork consumptions in months haven't moved up the same relativity, and that's really driven by that comment we've made over the last couple of years, where you've seen the domestic product really fall away, if you like, in China, and they are heavily dependent, if you like, on the imports. So, as a consequence, support stocks have gone up, but if you look at pork consumption in months, it's not such a big jump. Clearly, what you have seen in the last couple of quarters if you've actually seen the seaborne exports recover, particularly coming out of COVID, and particularly you see the jump between quarter two calendar year 20 to quarter three calendar year 20, where you've actually seen, if you like, the South Africans come back in a relatively big way. I think trucking out of South Africa probably jumped from 20% the prior year to about 40% this year as people continue to look for those opportunities.

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

Where do you see the marginal cost now, the support level?

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, look, we'd still say that, you know, the marginal cost where you are today will actually be driven, obviously, by the trucking costs, and that is still very dependent on your position on RAND and the grade that's actually coming out. From our perspective, you know, we see that we generally talk about somewhere between $4 to $5, but it's probably sitting around $4.20, $4.50 at the moment, depending on your view on currency. And that's a 44 CFE equivalent.

speaker
Myles Alsop
Analyst, UBS

Yeah. Great. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Kerr for closing remarks.

speaker
Graham Kerr
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, look, thanks very much. And thanks, everyone, for your time today. I know it's a busy day ahead and it has been a busy day for many of you. Look, what I would leave you with the comments is it's great to see a strong operating performance from the teams again in this six-month period, which I think is building a strong track record. We're really pleased to see some of our key commodities that have been under price pressure for probably the last 12 months have very much turned the corner at the start of this calendar year, which is always a positive. But I think, you know, our strong balance sheet, our ability to increase shareholder returns and the fact that we have a couple of key inflection points with momentum around that portfolio with the divestments and project progress, I think is important. And I think that positions us well to be in a great spot to actually create value for our shareholders as we go forward. And finally, just to thank you for your time again today and your support.

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