Stanmore Resources Limited

I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Marcelo Matos, Executive Director and CEO. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us following the release of STEMO's 2024 full year results earlier today. To begin, 2024 has been another remarkable year for STEMO, as summarized by the highlights on slide number three. Starting with safety, our rolling 12-month series accident frequency rate concluded the year at 0.3, an increase from the 0.19 in the prior year, but remaining below the latest industry average of 0.69. As pre-reported in the December quarterly, we were very pleased to announce fully-assailable production of 13.8 million tons, above the upper bound of our previously stated guidance and underpinned by exceptional operational performance that has driven raw mining records across all of our core operating assets. FOB cash costs have remained relatively steady, increasing by the US$3 per tonne year on year, supported by the record volumes and contributing to a solid underlying EBITDA result of US$700 million. Overall, the strong financial results for 2024, together with an assessment of our liquidity requirements and the substantial completion of our investment program, has enabled the Board to declare a final dividend of 6.7 US cents per share. This brings aggregate dividends declared for 2024 to 11.1 US cents per share, equivalent to a yield of almost 7% at today's share price. We are very glad to be able to reward our shareholders for their patience over the last couple of years during our investment journey. Moving into the body of the presentation and starting with more detailed look into our safety performance on slide number five. Safety performance was a year of two halves for 2024. Two serious incidents classified as serious accidents were recorded in the first half, increasing our frequency rate to a peak of 0.48 as of 30 June 24, before no serious accidents were recorded in the second half, and the frequency rates subsequently reduced to 0.3 as of December 31, 24, far below the industry average for open-cut mines. The two incidents were both related to line-of-fire hand injuries, which, while serious and have been thoroughly investigated, were thankfully found to be limited in their potential, and we were pleased to see the severity of our incidents reducing as evidenced by a significant reduction in lost time injuries and workers' compensation costs, amongst other metrics. This is in line with an overall injury trend for the year, where we have seen an increase to hand and musculoskeletal non-severe injuries, driving our increased focus on enhancement of our safety practices and targeted awareness campaigns in these areas. On a positive note, we were very happy to receive an award at the Queensland Mining Industry Health and Safety Conference related to safety innovation performance at Poitras. However, overall for the industry, there has been a challenging year safety-wise with multiple fatalities in Queensland, providing a sobering reminder that we can never compromise on ensuring our people return home to their families safe and sound. Before taking a deep dive into the numbers, we'd like to take a moment to reflect on some of the key achievements across our operations on slide number six. 2024 was a massive year with significant intensity of activities at all our sites, delivering record run production at all three sites in unison with execution and delivery of several large-scale projects. Activity at South Walker Creek has been unprecedented, with the addition of three expansion truck and excavator fleets requiring the onboarding of an additional 150 people, And the major projects require more than 1,500 contractors and a significant amount of mobile equipment. Despite this, the all-time saleable production record from 2023 was matched in 2024 with a standout BIM world-class dragline performance, which set a quarterly record in March and closely followed this up with a strong result in December. We have also been pleased to report on various project milestones, including first call from the Y-South box cut in August, the successful completion of the Drag Line 27 conversion to AC, the commissioning of the newly upgraded CHPP in November, and more recently, the handover of the MRH-UC project to operations in early 2025. Port Trail reached new heights in 2024 with the completion of the Ramp 10 box cut immediately yielding benefits with an all-time quarterly run production record of 2.7 million tons in the September quarter. Truck and excavator performance has been best in class at Port Trail, supported by the fleet replacement activities, including two 600-ton class diggers, a 400 ton class digger and a handful of doses lastly the wet weather impacts from early 23 were most severe at the isaac plains complex and the team has been the team has done a remarkable job in recovering the lost volumes to post an annual round production record in 2024. this is due to equally impressive drag line performance at isaac as well as the introduction of a primary mobile crushing unit which enhance overall chpp performance and yield moving on to a more detailed operational performance on slide number seven south walker creek produced 6.3 million tons of clean coal exceeding the upper end of the guidance despite the 14-day shutdown in November for our CHPP upgrade. Crip ratios increased year-on-year, with the advancement of overburden removal ahead of the capacity ramp-up, which was always expected, but also lower ROM mining in December due to wet weather impacts, meaning that cold flows slip into January 25. Cost-wise, FOB cash costs increased $6 U.S. per ton year on year, in line with the plan, and in accordance with the introduction of the additional expansion of fleets in South Walker in 2024. OITRIL set all time records across all physical metrics, ROM, saleable product and sales, which offset loss volumes from the decision to close the millennium complex and facilitated the lower FOB cash costs year on year. As highlighted earlier, this was underpinned by the completion of the ramp 10 box cut, which has enhanced the strike length and enabled the operation of larger loading units, as well as the optimization of haulage paths. The Isaacs Plains Complex delivered saleable production of 2.8 million tons, just below the upper end of guidance, while FOB cash costs increased in line with the plan, as mining as Isaac Downs continues down deep and as opportunities, the opportunistic highest preparation mining continued at Pit 5 North. Importantly, a pathway for life extension at the Isaac Complex was secured with the agreement with Anglo and Exaro in September, which will enable the development of what we are calling the Isaac Downs Extension Project, which combines the acquired area with a resource we already own, approximately six kilometers south of Isaac Downs. Finally, to bring it all together, we are pleased to have reported a total consolidated saleable production of 13.8 million tons, as previously indicated. above the upper end of guidance and FOB cash costs of US$89 per ton below the guided range. I'll now hand over to Shane to briefly discuss the financial outcomes of this operational performance on slide number eight.

Thanks, Marcelo. Looking at FOB cash cost walk forward, we have highlighted our key cost drivers year on year. Overall FOB cash costs are around $3 US per tonne higher in 2024 versus 2023, primarily as a result of the planned additional expansion fleets at South Walker Creek required for the production capacity ramp up. You may recall in previous discussions that we expected incrementally higher consolidated unit costs as a result of introducing these fleets as they increase the weighting of the higher cost truck and shovel volumes compared to the lower cost drag line volumes across that mine. In addition to this impact, higher strip ratios and general cost inflation have been more than offset by higher sales volumes driven by record coal production with 14.2 million sales tons recorded in 2024 and favorable movements in the Australian US dollar exchange rate, which reduced by more than six cents over the course of the year. In 2024, we generated underlying EBITDA of 700 million US dollars. At today's exchange rate, that's an Australian dollar result of around 1.1 billion Australian dollars. The key contributor to the year on year movement in underlying EBITDA has been lower coal prices, which net of other uncontrollable factors such as royalties, foreign exchange and inflation. reduced underlying EBITDA by US$450 million from 2023's record levels. Notwithstanding this, our strong sales volume, particularly from the standout performance at Portrel, has helped partially mitigate this impact. I'll now continue on to the next section of the presentation covering off on our group level financial results from slide 10. This slide provides a high-level summary of our financial performance and balance sheet position on a consolidated basis. I'll save the detail for the coming slides, however we're extremely proud to have delivered such a strong financial result in a year of normalising coal prices. Despite these softer conditions, we are pleased to have maintained a healthy dividend payout ratio, a significant achievement for Stanmore and our shareholders, Especially as 2024 saw us settle some material once off obligations with our final earn out payment for the BMC assets and tax liabilities related to significant prior period taxable profits. We also finished 2024 with a balanced net debt position and total liquidity of over 500 million US dollars or around 800 million Australian dollars at current exchange rates. Looking at the income statement in further detail from slide 11, the lower coal pricing environment mentioned earlier contributed to 11% lower income year-on-year, with higher sales volumes partially offsetting the 21% reduction in average sales price. EBITDA at US$715 million is slightly higher than underlying EBITDA for 2024 as it takes into account the net impacts of once-off items including the gain on a sale of a southern portion of Wadswell, impairment charges mentioned during our half-year results in relation to the Millennium Complex, and other non-operational transaction costs. Final net profit after tax of 192 million US dollars has translated to earnings per share of 21.2 US cents, resulting in a payout ratio to NPAT of over 50% when accounting for aggregate dividends declared in 2024. Moving on to cash flow and the balance sheet on slide 12, excluding taxes and royalties, Stanmore generated over US$1 billion in operating cash flows last year, with just over US$600 million paid in taxes and royalties to Queensland and federal governments during 2024 alone. converting to 924 million Australian dollars contributed by Stanmore to support government funding. When factoring in capital expenditures, largely related to our expansion activities at South Walker Creek, net cash flows after operating activities and CapEx amounted to 364 million US dollars. M&A related payments covered the final BMC acquisition payment to BHP, as well as upfront consideration for transactions related to the acquisition of Eagle Downs and the Isaac Downs Extension Designated Area Agreement. After factoring in M&A, Wardswell proceeds, finance and sundry cash flows, as well as lease principal and dividends paid, Stanmore finished 2024 in a US$26 million net debt position. We view this as relatively conservative following the discharge of material one-off obligations in 2024 as we near the conclusion of our large-scale capital reinvestment initiatives. This slide also highlights the change in Stanmore's debt position year on year, with our 2024 refinancing reverting our debt balance outstanding to a similar position to that as at the end of 2023, but now at lower annual cost, longer maturity date, and a fixed amortization profile. This leaves our assets conservatively geared in a strong liquidity position that provides coverage for working capital requirements over the various phases of the commodity price cycle. Fairmore's financial position has come a long way since the BMC acquisition. So we thought it might be good to highlight now how we have allocated capital since the acquisition in May 2022 on slide 13. As you can see, the capital allocation between shareholder returns, organic growth, net acquisitions and balance sheet allocations has surpassed US$1.6 billion over the past two and a half years, following the acquisition of the 80% of South Walker Creek and full travel from BHP. Please note too that this $1.6 billion in capital allocations excludes more than $1.8 billion U.S. dollars paid in government taxes and royalties over that same period. Net acquisitions include the consolidation of the BMC assets through acquiring the remaining 20% interest in those mines, completion of all remaining deferred and earn-out PHP payments, and the strategic Eagle Downs and Isaac Downs extension purchases, all cash-funded. In addition to acquisitions, we have materially deleveraged the balance sheet with US$551 million of debt repaid and US$315 million reinvested into our business to support higher production volumes and cost optimization through projects such as MRA2C, the South Walker Creek expansion, and Ramp 10 at Portrel, which Marcelo will discuss in more detail shortly. Notwithstanding these investments, shareholder returns have also been delivered during this period, with total dividends declared of around $230 million over the past two and a half years through the consistent application of the dividend policy announced as part of the pre-BMC equity raise in March 2022. This policy continues to provide a balanced approach to shareholder returns, noting that the board retains discretion to periodically assess and optimize our liquidity and consider any surplus accumulated cash and or liquidity requirements in making dividend decisions. As such, the final 2024 dividend of 6.7 US cents per share was declared following consideration of these factors and also in light of the business entering a steady state phase with regards to capital expenditure and debt repayments. On that note, I'll hand back to Marcelo for a more detailed overview of our key capital projects from slide 14.

Thanks, Shane. To explain further the performance of the capital project campaign we embarked on two and a half years ago, this slide summarizes the pipeline of major projects plotting original estimated spend versus final actual or projected spend over the life of the project. Total budget for the major project was more than 360 million US dollars. And we are pleased to report that following substantial completion of the program in 2024, we expect that final total spend will end up more than 40 million US dollars lower than planned. Furthermore, All projects were executed on time or ahead of schedule with conclusion of the final work packages at the MRHUC Creek Diversion Project expected in early 2025. I would like to commend our project teams for delivering such a large capital program safely and efficiently. This is an extremely commendable effort and will further strengthen our portfolio and make our operations even more resilient and reliable. and further endorsing our credibility in the delivery of successful capital projects. Looking ahead, we expect 2025 to be a transitory year to a sustaining run rate of capital expenditure at our three core assets, as reflected by our updated guidance for 2025 of between 105 to 115 million US dollars, at least until we make decisions in relation to the next stage of projects such as Isaac Downs Extension and Eagle Downs. On the next slide, 16, we have provided further detail around the overall South Walker Creek expansion. The overall expansion will deliver a room for mining capacity of approximately 94 million tons per annum and 7.0 million tons per annum of saleable coal and is comprised of various projects that either de-bottleneck certain parts of the operation, such as the CHPP upgrade, or ensure the South Walker Creek can retain its first tier cost position, such as the MRHOC Creek Diversion and the Wise South Box Cut. With first call from the Wise South Box Cut in August, the commissioning of the upgraded CHPP in November, the mobilization of an additional four mining fleets during 2024, and finally, the removal of the plugs for the MRHOC Creek Diversion in January this year, the overall expansion project is now substantially complete. We are also pleased to report that ramp-up of production at the expanded CHPP has been successful, with the teams achieving the nameplate capacity of 1,200 tons per hour earlier than predicted. with the CHPP performing at times above this throughput rate without combustible recovery losses. There are minor water packages remaining in 2025 and 26, attributable to the establishment of new mining industrial areas to support the additional fleets. Slide number 17 provides a snapshot of the largest project at South Walker, the MRHUC Creek Diversion. where clearing and grabbing has commenced in the first pit to be mined, the E north pit. But I'll move straight to slide 18, where we hash our portfolio of organic growth opportunities. During 2024, we enhanced our portfolio of development projects significantly, with the acquisition of the Eagle Downs project from South 32 in Aquila, and with securing an open-cut resource in a deal with the Moromba South JV participants, providing a pathway for mine life extension at the Isaac Plains complex. These transactions have created a strategic complex of assets in the Moromba region, adjacent to our existing Isaac and Port Royal operations, providing significant optionality and flexibility in how we approach the development of each project, including the infrastructure and funding requirements. For now, advancement of what we are calling the Isaac Downs Extension Project has become a top priority for STEML, which we expect to be a capital-efficient project and support ongoing capacity utilization of the Isaac Plains CHPP and loadout infrastructure north of the Peak Downs Highway. We are working hard on all preparation work to enable submissions for all regulatory approvals by not later than early 2026. to target commencement of development between late 27 and early 2028. Meanwhile, for Eagle Downs, we are busy with study works, including optioneering and optimization for the development pathway to leverage our unique infrastructure position and neighboring assets to put us in a position to make decisions in relation to the project from late this year. 2024 has also been a year of milestones in our decarbonization journey, as highlighted on slide 19. In August, we announced the South Walker Creek Gas to Electricity Project, which seeks to reduce our emissions footprint by converting future methane fugitive emissions to on-site electricity. This project will support the long-term electricity requirements of South Walker at stable cost and capacity, and is the first to have been granted funding through the Queensland Government's Low Emissions Investment Partnership. It will also be the first application of this technology in an open-cut setting, providing an important precedent for replication of the project and decarbonization of the industry overall. In the December quarterly, we announced that in partnership with Idemitsu, COSAN, and Terviva, we have commenced a trial plantation of 14,000 pangamia trees, which is native species used as feedstock for renewable fuels. This will leverage the significant land holdings we have at South Walker Creek and follows collaborative efforts to study the use of pangamia with the University of Queensland. Moving on to sustainability and people from slide number 21, STEMO has focused on advancing the commitments outlined in our sustainability roadmap, adapting to regulatory change, and delivering sustainable value to our stakeholders. Our materiality topics have remained unchanged, and we have pressed ahead with our commitments and goals, including the endorsement of our group environment policy and the development of climate metrics and reporting in readiness for the ASRS reporting. As highlighted on previous slide, we have made solid progress in our decarbonization plan and implementation framework with the announcement of the South Walker Creek Gas to Electricity Project. Meanwhile, our social performance is discussed in further detail on slide number 22. Starting with community, we are pleased to have followed up on our commitments and have increased spending with both local and by 7 and 37% respectively. This is in addition to our community grants program, which has seen an increase in individual grants year on year and has served to enhance contribution to local townships and communities in regional Queensland. In terms of economic contribution, total royalties and taxes paid in 2024 have amounted to more than 900 million Australian dollars, as previously explained by Shane. We hope to see some of these proceeds invested back in the regions, providing crucial support to areas that are the lifeblood of the mining industry. Lastly, at STEMO, we greatly value our unique culture, which drives many of the highlights that we have touched on today's call. We continue to pride ourselves in our employment practices and are pleased to have seen a stable female participation rate year on year, whilst indigenous representation in the workforce has increased and is a testament to our desire to maximize indigenous employment through our dedicated trainee program and strong relationships with our traditional owners. We will now move on to a brief overview of market conditions for metallurgical coal from slide number 24. To recap briefly on our customer base and product mix, Stanmore continues to maintain a diversified sales book focused on traditional markets in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Europe. Exposure to key growth markets such as India and Southeast Asia has been growing, whilst trade flows continue to be distorted by the Russia-Ukraine war. as shown by the import mix charts in a couple of slides' time. The product mix by revenue has remained consistent and reiterates STEMO's unique position as a metallurgical co-producer, with thermal sales representing just 3% of total sales. Looking at a short summation of historical pricing in slide number 25, Prices for premium low-volume hot-cooking coal have generally trended downwards over the course of 2024, although PCI has trended flat to slightly down, as relativity has improved significantly compared to 2023, owing to increased rollout of Russian sanctions and wider PCI utilization. Seasonal supply constraints provided support for prime-grade materials in early 2024, as wet weather constraints apply from Queensland and Indian restocking ensued. As supply constraints eased through the second quarter, PLV normalized to around 250 US per ton with a short-lived price spike following the announcement of the ignition event at Grosvenor in late June. In the second half, it has been a story of subdued demand with ongoing elevated China steel exports persisting at record levels and a slower than expected return of demand from India post-monsoon season, also impacted by the low steel price environment. Further detail on the trade flows with China and India has been provided on slide number 26. China Metallurgical Coal Imports continued their strong recovery from the post-COVID low in 2021, increasing to 122 million tons in 2024. Mongolian and Russian supply into China has continued to increase, together contributing more than two-thirds of the import mix. Indian demand was steady in OEA against 2023, with lower steel prices and increased steel imports from China impacting utilization rates. in unison with efforts to diversify sources of medical supply to Russia and North America. Nonetheless, we continue to remain optimistic on India with ongoing commissioning of blast furnace and coke ovens, supporting India's long-term plans to expand its steelmaking capacity. Looking more broadly at the market outlook on slide number 27, Australian medical exports were stagnant year on year and remain at decade lows with structural challenges from geological inflation as reserves continue to deepen and strip ratios increasing, as well as regulatory environment adversities. Significant wet weather in early 2025 is set to keep total exports subdued in the near term, whilst cost curve pressure will be kicking in for the higher cost marginal tones. On the geopolitical and macroeconomic side, as you all know, it has been a dynamic start to the year with the various tariff announcements from the U.S. and China's first round of retaliation tariffs announced on U.S. coal imports earlier in February. Global steel conditions remain sensitive to the threats of de-globalization, as well as any counter-cyclical measures announced by China to re-stimulate internal demand and hence normalize the elevated volumes of finished steel exports. Ex-China safeguard measures introduced on China's steel imports remains a key catalyst for seaborne demand of metallurgical coal. particularly in India where announcements on infrastructure spending and ongoing met coke import quotas may provide near-term support. With that, I'll hand back over to Shane to close out the presentation with our 2025 guidance.

Thanks, Marcelo. Stepping through the various guidance figures, we have set the lower end of saleable production guidance in line with 2024. as we remain confident in an uplift in total portfolio production year on year, underpinned by the ramp up of South Walker Creek during 2025. Meanwhile, guidance for Portrel and the Isaac Plains complex has been positioned in line with their strong results for 2024. It has been a challenging start to the year weather wise, with rainfall at Murrumbah exceeding the total average in just one day earlier this month. Total monthly average in just one day. As a result, we have sought to factor these impacts from wet weather into our production guidance, expecting that, like last year, first quarter saleable production is likely to be at a lower run rate when compared to subsequent quarters and the full year. The lower bound of free on board cash cost is also in line with 2024 actuals, as we anticipate that increased operational costs from the introduction of expansion fleets will be partially offset by higher volumes and a lower Australian dollar foreign exchange rate assumption compared to 2024 guidance. Finally, on capex, having largely concluded the capital investment program from 2024, we expect spend to transition to a sustaining run rate during the course of 2025 and have therefore guided to significantly lower capex year on year. I'll now hand back to our moderator for Q&A.

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on speakerphone, please pick up the handset before asking your question. Your first question today comes from Brett McKay with Petra. Please go ahead.

Good morning, gents. Another cracking result. Well done. Just a couple of questions. I want to start on where you just left off there, Shane, around guidance. You note that weather impacts are being factored in. Is that on the basis that you don't get any further wet weather, or are you assuming that there's sort of some further weather impacts in your numbers?

Brad, it's Marcelo. I'll take that one. Morning, mate. Morning. yes i think the simple answer is yes i think obviously we've guided based on on the impact to date as far as the full year performance bread i think uh we are not expecting any additional significant performance but we are confident that the range itself you know already provides enough let's say wriggle room for falling back, even if we have further impacts. Otherwise, of course, we have some material unexpected impacts like major cyclones or the likes. So I think the range is a range that we are comfortable. Q1 specifically, as Shane said, if we have more weather, probably Q1 is going to be a bit more affected beyond what we expected here when we provided this range. But as it stands now, the plan is looking like by, I would say, late April or early mid-May, we should be back to plant, assuming we get no additional significant weather.

Yeah, okay. Makes sense. Can I just sort of hone in on South Walker Creek for a second, given that you've got a 6.5 and 6.7 million tonne number? for this year post the expansion? And I know your comments in the presentation that that ramp up has gone well. It feels like that's a fairly conservative number for this year around that asset specifically.

Brett, South Walker was, I think there are two sides of the story. One is the commissioning of the CHPP. In our plans, we assumed a ramp-up curve to get to the 1,200 tons per hour, let's say, steady state. And we assumed that to happen during a quarter, which is where we are now just going through the first quarter. Things are looking good. So from a throughput processing rate, it's looking positive. But it was never only about, let's say, the CHVP being the bottleneck. It's also about the fact that we are ramping up capacity on the mining side. We are opening a new area in the MRA to sea area, which is the E-North pit. Weather hasn't helped. Let's say the start of E-North. Having said that, I think I'm confident that should be able to recover and hit at least the midpoint if not the higher end of this of this range brett if all goes well and if uh if the plant performs well without any any any glitches and uh if we don't get more weather is this outlook are able to potentially even go over that that range i would like to think so okay but given a given it's a of initial headwind with weather, commissioning of the CHVP, and the ramp-up of a new pit in the MRA area. We just thought it was a bit more prudent to reflect that in the range. But as I said before, I'm pretty confident that we'll be able to claw back and end the year well at South Walk.

That makes sense. Just moving on to the growth projects on Eagle Downs, Can I ask two questions there? One of them is, do you think we'll get a bit of a framework as to what that development might look like prior to the FID, which you've targeted for the end of this year? Is there a point during the year that you might sort of understand exactly how it might look should you take it to FID and that would be announced to the market?

Great. focus for us is to get the work done to be ready for our investment decision. Whether or not they're going to make an investment decision depends on other factors, right? I think, of course, the timing for that investment decision, depending on how the market looks like, is one. Having the right funding equation for the project is another one. And of course, project looking attractive with what we are working hard to to to to address now right running to ground the business case see what how much we're going to be able to build it for and what can we expect in terms of future performance out of a long wall operation like that so i think i think we want to be able to address those those uh you know uh points over the year to be ready for a decision time wise i think we'll see how the market looks like and As Shane said, I think we just finished a campaign of investment. Our balance sheet looks pretty robust. As in whether we're going to be able to present a framework on how we're going to make some of those decisions and provide a bit more color on the project, I think one of the critical points is, of course, the work package for the construction, how much they're going to cost, and how that looks like from a infrastructure optioneering standpoint, which is what we are doing now, right? We are now looking at a complex type of view to see how Eagle Downs fits as a project and how it looks like as part of the portfolio in terms of optimizing infrastructure utilization amongst the assets in that area and how that looks like, for example, if we develop Isaac South, because they may have a direct interaction as well because isaac south will use the isaac chpp there's a few things we need to look because uh in a few scenarios uh i would like ideally to avoid anything too premature if we are not ready but assuming that now that we have more conclusive views of of capex and uh let's say an ideals development scenario i don't i don't see any problem in us providing an update, but I don't think that's going to happen before, I would say, the third quarter, for example.

Yep, okay, that's good. And just quickly, any comments on Lancewood? I notice it's not mentioned in the preso. That feels like it's been pushed back, given a longer timeline, and we've spoken about that in the past, so I don't think we need to go into the details, but it just feels like that one's maybe pushed to the back of the queue. Would that be correct?

Correct. I think a simple answer is correct. We are still progressing with what we need to do from a regulatory approval standpoint. As you recall, we have a mining lease in Lancewood, but we need to progress the environmental approval. So we are doing the work to be able to to have those approvals progressed. But as far as more development work, more site activity, it's back on the priority list compared to Isaac Downs Extension and Eagle Downs at the moment. One of the reasons being, for example, the fact that Eagle Downs will have all the approvals in place and can utilize existing infrastructure at our site. So Lance Wood was always about trying to explore the concept of a small open cut. Small open cut doesn't look like a dripping roast, as I mentioned in previous discussions. It is a small challenging open cut because of the initial size of the box cut and average strip ratios. So with that in mind and with the priority on the other two, yeah, it's taking the backseat in terms of the priority list.

Okay, Greg, just one final one for Shane. Can you Give us any colour going forward around the lease, the cash lease payments. You know, obviously a decent number this year and that whole change in strategy around the fleet is continuing to play out. Can you give us any sort of colour what that number might look like on a go-for basis? Is it similar to what you've just printed or fractionally higher going forward?

Yeah, hi Brett. Yeah, I think that's a good way to categorise it. It should be relatively stable into 2025 compared to what we've just reported for 2024. Obviously it covers off on the expansion fleet and other areas of our business where we've got assets and mobile equipment on leases as accounted for under the accounting standards. So yeah, it should be relatively stable into 2025.

Thank you. The next question comes from Paul Metaggart with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Hi guys. So I had a couple of questions. Firstly, I mean, it's great that you came in $30 million below on your creeped version. I just wanted to understand how you managed to achieve that, whether there was a change in scope. And, you know, Eagle Downs, we've talked a little bit about it, but I mean, what, what, What kind of interest structure are you looking to share to try and get that capital cost down? If you could give us some sense of that. Thank you.

Hi, Paul. A question on the MRA. The key savings were basically time related. We had an opportunity to introduce a nice shift on the earthworks, OK, and that significantly shortened the, let's say, the conclusion of the earthworks, and that brought a significant saving for us in relation to the overall project. There's been some minor tweaks in scope that also represented a saving. There is one part of the project which is the mudding of one of the pits. I think it's the F pit, if I'm not wrong, where we're going to have water storage movements. And we pushed back that expansion in 2026, if I'm not wrong. It's not a large amount, but that's going to be reflected in the operational budget rather than a capital project. And we don't think that's going to be significant, let's say, increase in cost. It's already backed in our plans going forward. It's been a bit of both, but the majority of the saving was time-related on the earthworks at MRA. which was a fantastic outcome for us. We finished that in November, 95% ahead of the wet season, which was great. It could have been worse if we'd seen a lot of this weather we've seen now in January and February. On Eagle Downs, it's all about looking at how we can optimize capital by utilizing the existing CHPPs that we have in that area, which is the RMI wash plant in Port Trill and the Isaac Point CHPP, or a combination of both, and what investments you may need to make in those CHPPs to be able to cater for the tons from Eagle Downs, from Isaac South, and from Port Trill in case Eagle Downs is developed at a time that Port Trill is still running at full throttle. Portrero was running down in the early 2030s, as we expect. That could be a lot easier type of conclusion. So I think there's a lot of work looking at understanding how that looks like, and of course, comparing with the trade-off against us building our own infrastructure at Eagle Downs on site. Obviously, we would have to hook up to connect the whole road from Eagle Downs into Isaac South. So we are looking at this from a fully integrated basis because Eagle Downs can connect to Isaac South, which is now what we're calling the Isaac Downs extension. From Isaac Downs extension, there is already a whole road plan to connect to the Isaac Downs CHPP. And from there, we are looking at having the flexibility to take cove east to RMI or north to Isaac planes so uh there's a bit of that obviously if if that's possible we would be perhaps we would have savings on railroad out and rail loop and the likes so we we need to run to ground the possibility of limit investment on site at eagle downs to basically underground workings drift and shaft infrastructure and surface raw materials handling for example wrong okay um So the trade-offs we need to do is, is that the best thing long-term for the project? We may run to a conclusion that longer term, in 30 years, it's probably, it could be even better to invest on all this infrastructure on site, but the reality, that's not going to be one of the key decision-making metrics for us. I think lower capital to start, you know, and a more capital-like project to get started in generating cash flows could be prioritized against, you know, 30-year type of value, which is what we want to run to ground between now and then.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Glenn Lawcock with Barron Joey. Please go ahead.

Morning Marcelo. Firstly, you talked a little bit about the guidance and the weather. Is there one mine that potentially is a little bit at risk? I think maybe something like an Isaac Plains. You're looking for growth there, but that seems to have not a lot of mining faces. So is there one that could struggle?

This year, Isaac's always more, he struggles more to claw back because of the less flexibility, as you said, which is true. You have less, let's say, less options for where to go, given the limited number of pits and given the mining method at Isaac Plains. South Walker, this year specifically, was more affected than in the last two years. Simple reason being No young PITs, new PITs, like Y-South and the development of the EU North and MRA, which were at the early stages, which presents some challenges as well. So I think I would say the two are a lot more, let's say, challenging compared to Port Trill. Port Trill has been, let's say, we had the blessing of having ended the year with healthy ROM as well, so that's helping. January, we had a lot of rum out of Porto in January. But as I said, Glenn, I think as things stand now, we are expecting to be back to plan by around, I would say, April. Worst case may involve Southwark and Isaac as well. Southwark, because of the ramp up, of course, it just puts more pressure, right, on the site and the different sources of rum. So there will be a bit of, let's say, different profiles of performance quarter to quarter, but look at the full year, pretty comfortable with the guidance range we have.

Okay. And then I think if you look at the stats, I mean, we've had probably the worst start for exports out of Queensland in over 10 years now. Yet the coal price doesn't seem to want to get off the deck. As your chart showed, more Russian coal going into the region and if we do manage to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it's probably going to mean even more coal into the region. I mean, your US peers seem a lot more maybe pessimistic, cautious about the first next six months in the coal market. Do you have a different view? I'm just trying to figure out. I mean, like India doesn't seem to be coming back. It's a reasonable market for you. I mean, is there any signs of them coming back?

Well, look, India has been a bit slower than everyone expected. But it's been also, let's say, impacted by Chinese steel imports, right? But and Indonesian coke imports, the Indonesian coke imports quite an interesting story, because for Australia, MECCO, it's kind of net net, it's kind of a net impact, because most of the Indonesian merchant coke producers that are exported into India, they're actually using mostly Aussie meth coke. So if you have an impact of Indonesian imports of coke into India for Aussie meth coke, even if the Indians impose some quotas, for example, could be a net impact. Recovery, I think, will definitely be, I mean, it will have to be related to what happens with Chinese exports of steel or And of course, with expectations of what the Gulf does to either stimulate consumption in China or, let's say, production rate. It can either go a bit faster on its own expansion plan, or it's happening. I think the commissioning of the new blast furnaces and coke plants that were expected, they are happening. I don't see any significant delay. Of course, we are getting a bit of help on FX as well, as you said. Some of our US peers maybe don't have, and there's an additional pressure on them from that sense as well.

Okay. Now understood. I guess we just have to keep our eye on the market. And then just a little bit more around the lease spend, if I could. Obviously, you've got it now indicating flat year on year. Your annual report only ever has that going out to three years and ceasing. I assume you're just going to have to renew the lease. Should I be thinking of this $180 million a year as a 20-year type payment, while we keep the equipment on site and the mines operating?

Glenn Shane here. I guess the accounts refer to commitments that have been made at present. I guess what you're referring to there is the likelihood of us renewing those for the purposes of maintaining the equipment and continuing to have those costs as we continue to mine coal. So I think the long and short of it is we see leasing as a very effective way to finance mobile equipment. So we'll likely continue that going forward.

We've had a significant... a campaign of, let's say, fleet onboarding Glean, which has been a combination of expansion fleets at South Walk, but also fleet replacement, aging fleet replacement, for example, in Port Trail, and to a certain extent in South Walk. Some of the replacement that we've done ourselves, that they are not part of existing contracts with the contractors, for example, If we have new gear that we've purchased, which was the case in some locations with the new diggers, for example, as we get to, let's say, midlife, probably there will be a midlife type of investment, but we could probably extend life beyond that. I think we've just been through a process of fleet renewal, especially for a tour that was expected. the new, if there's a renewal of lease or of investments, they could be actually at a lower level possibly.

Yeah, it's true. Yeah.

Yeah. But it's sort of, you know, we shouldn't just assume at the end of three years it's going to go to zero. There'll be some residual amount for whatever equipment. And I guess as we get closer, you'll keep us up to date with that. Correct. Correct. Yeah. So if I look at the guidance then, FAB cash costs, call it $91. So your capex is about $8 and your leasing is about $13. So you're at about almost $113 a tonne cash out the door. And then your royalty to the Queensland government, let's call it 13%. So I gross all that up. You're about $130 a tonne cash out the door to run this business. But with realisation running at 70% and the PLV at 188, that's a 130 met coal price as well. So is it fair to assume... It's a pretty tough business at the moment and you're not alone. So all in, it looks like you're cash neutral today at spot prices, roughly. So I'm just trying to understand if that's correct. The desire to pay the big dividend, I mean, it's just over 50% for the full year, over 100% on the final, on the second half. Is that a fair assumption that you want to keep it at 50% into 25% given the potential backdrop?

Maybe just on the numbers, Glenn, if you look at all-in cash, including royalties and sustaining capital, I would say probably a bit south of what you said. At today's FX, it depends. FX is a major item in that equation, and that's helping a lot at the moment, and I think it's south from what you said. ASP, look at the average sales price. Probably 70 is the lowest point, what we are getting for our semi-soft, for example. So it's a bit above that. So there's a bit more wiggle room compared to what you said. Yes, it's a lot. It's a PLV at 180 something. It's a lot different than it was some time ago. I think If you look, especially in the U.S., we're going to start to see a lot more pressure. And that may assist if we see, for example, some U.S. calls getting out of India, for example. This may help. But definitely, definitely it's a very different world than it was in the last couple of years. I'll let Shane comment a bit more on divs and so on. But as he said in his initial talking points, When we looked at dividend decisions now, and we look at the future, given what CapEx for the business will be, before we make decisions in relation to the next campaign of projects, there's a huge amount of liquidity in the business. Part of the cash flow in relation to our policy some way was retained in previous years. So, I mean, there's more than $500 million in liquidity, as even you mentioned in the last quarterly production. That's definitely something that was taken into consideration as well.

Yeah, absolutely. I guess what gives the board a lot of confidence now is the refinancing that happened last year and the additional liquidity that brought to the business, as well as certainty and a longer-dated maturity on that debt. So with liquidity well in excess of $500 million, which is also a function of the profitability of the business over the past few years and the retention of at least 50% of free cash flow after debt service as per our policy up until that point, then that additional cash and liquidity has given the board confidence that when we look ahead to the next 12, 18, 24 months and we run scenarios at lower costs and lower pricing environments, there's still sufficient liquidity and cash in the business to be able to pay this dividend quite comfortably.

I appreciate that. That's great. Thanks very much for your time.

The next question comes from Tom Sartor with Morgan Financial. Please go ahead.

G'day, Marcelo and team. Congratulations on some very strong execution, another good result. I'll just have a really quick follow-up on the market itself. Your PCI realisations over the last few years really have proven to be pretty resilient, and that's despite the softer market. steel environment and the Russian competition which we know about but there's also some discussion in the market that mills are learning how to become less reliant on prime hard coal in their mixes which does help narrow the discounts to your coal brands but which might in itself reduce the upward tension on the Aussie HCC indexes against which you price so I'm just curious about whether you're seeing any evidence of that in the buying behaviour from your customers or if there's any credence to that sort of rebalancing of the pricing dynamic in that suite of met calls at all?

Tom, yeah, it's a pretty comprehensive one. Different elements in that equation, maybe starting with PCI dynamics. Look, we have a very strong book, Tom, and I think that's a very important point and a strategy that's been very successful today. So we have a strong contract book to have a lot of PCI spot exposure in a market that's not so small and that's not so liquid given what we've been through now with Russia and with Russia selling at $10 less CFR China, for example, than what the Aussie FOB is now if you net back the PCI pricing at China. So we want to make sure that our book is strong. fortunately we have good products they are very well demanded for both the south walker and the portrayal as well because we are selling a good volume of our portrayal blended with south walker into india at very stable demands we have been able to conclude some spot transactions last year that helped support the the pci prices and the real activities uh and I have no reason to see any change in the dynamics of PCI value in use against prime hot cooking coal. At these levels now, it's a healthy relativity. I don't think there's any, let's say, technical driver or even economic driver of value in use to change that, unless we have major supply or demand disruptions, okay, from a PCI, for example, standpoint. For other brands, I think, Look, they're not very far from. What the historical activities have been, so I don't think there's any major distortion at the moment. If you look at value and use from the from the different subcategories. So. No, I I don't think I don't expect it. I don't see any. Any major distortion Tom and I don't see anything that that could be a driver for any very short term. Oh, as we have significant disruption. Okay.

No worries. That's useful. Thanks, guys. I'll follow up. Cheers.

There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the call back to Mr. Matos for closing remarks.

Thank you all for joining today's call. It's been a remarkable year for STEMO. With a huge effort from all our employees, contractors contributing to our record production performance in a year that the intensity of activities in our operations has been unprecedented. So as usual, I'd like to thank our shareholders for your ongoing support. Look forward to catching up with all of you over the course of this week. Thanks, everyone. Have a good day.

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.