7/20/2021

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

to quarterly update conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press star 1 on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I will now extend the conference over to your first speaker today, Mr. Sean Verner, Managing Director and CEO for CRO Resource. Thank you. Please go ahead.

speaker
Sean Verner
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning and thanks for dialing in today. With me on the call is Stephen Wells, our Chief Financial Officer and Viren Hira, our General Manager of Business Development and Investor Relations. Today we'll work through the June quarterly presentation released along with the quarterly report covering operations, market conditions and the outlook for natural graphite, active anode material and the end-use markets. Starting on slide three, We're clear on why an investment in Tyrant has great potential, and as we stand, we're strongly encouraged by improved electric vehicle and battery anode downstream market conditions observed in late 2020 and in the first half of 2021, along with the material and positive progress that Q2 has seen, with Barama's transition from suspension to production and market re-entry, and both product and project developments at Vardalia. The underlying thematic of electrification of the transport sector via lithium-ion batteries in EVs is clear, with industry transforming capital being committed and invested by both OEMs and battery makers, increasing customer demand and strongly supportive government policy developing across key regions. As we continue to reiterate, SARA's long-term value proposition is fundamentally linked to, firstly, the accelerating electrification of the global transport fleet. Secondly, graphite maintaining its high intensity of use in lithium-ion batteries, the primary battery technology for EVs for the foreseeable future. Thirdly, Bulama being the world's largest integrated natural graphite operation. And fourth, our downstream strategy to become a large-scale producer of value-added active anode material products for the battery supply chain. Electrification of the transport sector is accelerating quickly with substantial capacity, commitment and investment from auto OEMs and battery makers being made through the first half of 2021. We continue to see growing urgency from policymakers and the private sector to facilitate the transition to EVs and to secure the strategic critical battery minerals and value-added battery materials required to achieve this. Graphite, as a strategic critical raw material, has been confirmed by key governments as it's expected to remain the primary anode material in lithium-ion batteries. The battery technology that our industry interactions confirm is planned for the vast majority of expansions. Graphite remains the highest intensity of use material by mass of any cathode or anode material, with the majority of our potential customers indicating growing demand for natural graphite in the future. And while the graphite supply chain is presently 100% reliant on China, supply disruptions and a very strong forward demand profile both demonstrate the significant risks posed by a lack of supply chain diversification to growing the EV market, particularly outside of China. So as we move through the first full quarter of restart, it's clear that Galama is the best global natural graphite resource on many parameters. With capital invested, our operations, sales and logistics infrastructure well established and ramped up again quickly, but with strong opportunity for greater production and cost efficiencies as volumes increase further. Balaama's product mix is directed to supply the growing battery market with a weighting to high-grade times, and the Syrah brand is highly regarded by a global customer base with a reputation for consistency in grade. And while recent focus on lithium capacity constraints has seen attention on potential projects across the battery raw material sector, and there's much discussion on various long-term options for new graphite supply, the reality in this market remains clear. Balama is the current and future key to sustainable supply of natural graphite needs in the battery supply chain outside of China. We're making very strong progress towards becoming a major producer of natural graphite active anode material in the US with the potential to supply both domestically and to satisfy European export markets. We believe our operation in Vidalia is the most viable and progressed alternative customers have outside of Asia for large scale localised and ESG-verifiable natural graphite active anode material supply. This progress, which we'll talk further about today, and Vidalia's vertical integration with Bulama, provide a compelling strategic value proposition to governments, auto OEMs and battery manufacturers. Our market and government interactions over the past six months have continued to see strong focus on environmental, social and governance factors, and slide four emphasises our clear ESG credentials, which we provide significant detail on in the quarterly sustainability update that's released alongside this report today. So I was very well positioned as the sustainability of battery raw materials supply comes under increased scrutiny given the superior environmental credentials of natural versus most synthetic graphite, particularly from a carbon emissions perspective. And secondly, the best practice ESG standards embedded at the LAMA and across the SARA group more broadly. Importantly, the LAMA supply, vertically integrated with the data, will provide a source of anode material that's 100% ESG verifiable to US and European customers. A single chain of custody in the anode market doesn't exist currently, making it challenging for consumers to verify the ESG credentials of current supply, largely concentrated out of China. We believe that SARA provides a clear solution and a superior ESG proposition. We're committed to verifying the environmental position of our natural graphite and anode material products, And in meeting this commitment and building on our own internal analysis, we've commissioned an independent life cycle assessment of our operations, which should be completed later this year. Moving on to slide five to provide an overview of SARA's second quarter. Our health, safety and environment performance continues to be outstanding. Our total recordable injury frequency rate at Balaama was zero in the June quarter, and this was achieved with the full resumption of operational activity and with rehiring continuing. Balaama's TRIPA has now remained below one since late 2018, and our TRIPA at Vidalia was also zero in the June quarter. We have robust COVID-19 protocols in place at Balaama and Vidalia, and no positive COVID-19 cases have been reported at Balaama since the onset of the COVID pandemic, and we continue to monitor this closely given recent increases in Delta variant COVID infections in Southern Africa. On the market, EV endures a demand growth. The most important leading indicator for SARA continued to flourish in Q2 following a very strong prior nine months, with forecasts for EV sales in 2021 now approaching 5 million units. Battery capacity commitments and strategic alignment in the supply chain is accelerating to keep up with significant growth in predicted EV demand. We've been really pleased with the performance of BALAMA through the first full quarter of operations following the restart, and we're tracking ahead of our plan in the transition back to a sustainable level of operation. During the June quarter, BALAMA produced 29,000 tonnes of natural graphite C1 cash costs were $537 a tonne at an average production rate of around 10,000 tonnes per month. Importantly, this cost performance during the quarter demonstrated that we're well placed to achieve our target C1 cash costs of $430 to $460 a tonne as we transition to a 15,000 tonne per month run rate and continue to implement our planned improvement projects. We're continuing to drive unit costs a unit cost position through increasing production volumes, a longer term change to the energy mix, recovery improvement and other productivity initiatives. Re-entry to the global market is well progressed and we sold and shipped 15,000 tonnes of natural graphite during the quarter and practically all of our 20,000 tonnes product inventory position at the end of June is under contract. seeing disruption across the global liner shipping industry and that's currently impacting our ability to supply the volumes being demanded by our customers, but we're working through solutions to the current challenges and expect improvements from this quarter onward. Our weighted average basket price for sales was $474 a tonne SIF, with lower prices in the quarter driven by higher fines volumes being directed to China to re-establish our position in the battery supply chain. And again, we expect to see some rebalance in this in quarters ahead as sales volumes normalise. At the debut, we achieved a key milestone of producing on-specification active anode material from the carbonisation furnace, a unique milestone for the global supply chain, with natural graphite anode material produced from an ex-China integrated operation in the US. We're now demonstrating our integrated production capability to progress qualification testing and commercial processes with more than 10 target customers with more advanced interaction underway with our key customer targets. We transitioned to detailed engineering and procurement and awarded a services contract to Worley for the expansion of Vidalia's production capacity to 10,000 tons. We're advancing key Vidalia work streams across operations, customer qualification and offtake, product development, expansion, engineering and procurement and funding to position for a final investment decision on the 10,000 tonne anode material facility in the second half of 2021, subject to the required progress in the customer and funding streams. And I'll now pass over to Steve to talk through our balance sheet position.

speaker
Stephen Wells
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everybody. Bala ended the quarter with a strong cash position of $85 million, which includes proceeds from the issue of the Series 3 convertible note in June. As we announced, we issued a $28 million Australian convertible note tranche to Australian Super to support the orderly ramp-up of production at Balaama and maintain project momentum at Bedalia. We note that this balance is higher than the $81 million we forecast at the announcement of the Series 3 convertible note, which is due to timing of various payments. Nevertheless, obviously a strong balance sheet position. Excluding convertible note proceeds, Syrah's cash outflow for the quarter was $13 million and included costs and increased working capital associated with the ramp-up at Balama and ongoing investment in operations and the expansion project at Vidalia. We also benefited from VAT recoveries during the quarter. We do expect cash outflows in Q3 to be higher than Q2, with additional funding required for both the LAMA, from a working capital perspective, and Bedelia, from an investment perspective, during the quarter. At the LAMA, we will continue to increase production levels, which generates greater working capital requirements, given the cost of production being incurred in advance of sales cash receipts from that production. We intend to continue to increase production initially to a level which is sustainable from an operating cost perspective against our weighted average price and then beyond that as supported by the market to reduce our unit costs. Clearly in the short term as production increases we incur higher variable costs and there is a timing element to the receipt of cash from those higher sales. We will also experience some delays in cash receipts in Q3 due to the shipping challenges referred to earlier However, expect those to normalize along with production growth to better match our cash outflows and inflows. Other than the shipping issues currently being experienced, this was all expected as part of our production ramp up. At Vidalia, we have transitioned to detailed engineering and procurement, and we will be spending on long lead items in Q3 to maintain our progress. Towards the end of last year and earlier this year, we were spending approximately $2 million per quarter in this area, However, with continued progress on the expansion project and customer engagement moving towards a final investment decision later in the second half, this will increase to approximately $8 million in the third quarter to ensure progress is maintained. All quarter spent will be determined in conduction with progress on customer commitments and funding. Again, this was expected as part of our planning for 2021 and progression of the Vidalian facility. noting that if we are going to continue to progress, we will need to obtain the customer and funding outcomes required for a final investment decision. We are comfortable with the liquidity position of the company and the ability to fund the Lama's ramp-up under a range of market scenarios and project-related costs at Vedadia through to a final investment decision. As noted, our objective is to secure new funding for the construction costs beyond the final investment decision for Vedadia's expansion. I'll now turn to page 6 to talk about global EV sales. Slide 6 shows our primary leading indicator, which is global electric vehicle sales. Strong positive momentum in EV sales continued through Q2, with global EV sales growing 165% year-on-year in the first half of 2021. to over 2.3 million units, compared to less than a million units in the first half of each of the preceding three years, and growth also exhibited in the major consumer geographies. Global EV sales are now expected to reach almost 5 million units in 2021, which would represent more than double 2020 volumes, obviously COVID impacted and marginally higher than 2019, and clearly a strong annual growth rate over the last five years. The increase in EV sales continues to drive increased demand for anode material. Upstream raw material demand typically lags both EV demand and active anode material production growth. However, we are seeing Chinese active anode material production averaging 55,000 tonnes per month in the second quarter and approaching 50,000 tonnes per month in June, well more than double that of the same quarter in the prior year. There have been significant anode capacity additions proposed in China, and we also see strong anode precursor imports into South Korea from China, all very strong indicators. These signs indicate that downstream EV demand is working upstream through the supply chain, and we are certainly seeing a more balanced natural graphite fines market, even with increased fine supply and the China domestic production season underway. Strengthening natural graphite market conditions are reflected in positive and stable pricing trends, despite Bulama re-entering the market and the Chinese finds production during the quarter. Contracting for Bulama products with a broad range of end-user customers at higher volumes and over increasing tenor demonstrates buyer confidence in forward EV and no material demand expectations. Ex-China natural graphite demand has remained positive in the steelmaking and industrial markets. Prices in the coarse flake markets are significantly higher than when BALAMA moderated and suspended production in late 2019, early 2020. And Sean will talk to the support that that will provide to SARA's weighted average price in a few slides as our sales mix normalises. Demand momentum in both active anode material and industrial markets bodes well for greater production capacity utilisation over the months ahead and sustainable operations being achieved at BALAMA. I will now pass you back to Sean.

speaker
Sean Verner
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Moving on to slide 7 to provide a bit more detail on Balaama during the quarter. Following the restart of the Balaama plant in March, Q2 represented the first full quarter of operation. We're tracking ahead of restart plan with strong progress being made in the transition to sustainable operations both from an operating and market perspective. We produced 29,000 tonnes of natural graphite during the quarter over more extended campaigns than we had run in the past during the moderated production period. Plant recovery ramped up to over 80% in June 2021, exceeding our plan for the quarter and is expected to benefit from the ongoing implementation of improvement projects. Product quality for the quarter in terms of grade and product split matched strong performance reported during late 2019, with increasing control over the grade, product split and recovery trade-offs. Contract mining operations recommenced at Bulama in April 2021, with good equipment availability and performance being achieved. We will continue to be disciplined in Bulama's production plan by considering market demand and leading indicators. As we mentioned earlier, our C1 cash costs were $537 a tonne at average production of approximately 10,000 tonnes per month during the quarter. The quarter's cash cost performance highlighted that we're well positioned to transition to the target C1 cash cost of $430 to $450 a tonne at 15,000 tonnes per month production rate with all restructure elements delivering benefit during the quarter. and a reminder that the long-term target is around $330 a tonne when running at full capacity. Balaam's labour contingent is now back at more than 90% of the planned workforce, and that workforce plan will be around 10% lower than when production was moderated in late 2019. 45% of our labour contingent are from our host communities and 17% are female. And Sire's excellent culture and engagement in Mozambique has translated into strong interest in reinstated roles, with around 90% take-up of the rehire by former employees. Slide 8 shows the operational performance of Balaama this quarter versus historical quarters before Balaama's production was suspended. Balaama has delivered good product quality and excellent recovery this quarter relative to previous quarters, and importantly, The slide highlights that we're well on our way to achieving a restructured cost base that will be materially lower than what it was historically. Despite producing less this quarter, C1 cash costs were lower or in line relative to uninterrupted quarters historically. Moving to slide 9, natural graphite sales and shipments for the quarter were 15,000 tonnes and as we mentioned, practically all of the finished product inventory is also contracted. so contracting Balaama's high-quality products to a broader range of end-use customers than we had previously, with a strong focus on larger contract volumes and, in many cases, over longer tenure. Significant Ford sales are now contracted through 2021 and beyond. The market demanded more products from Balaama this quarter. However, disruption in the global container shipping market is currently impacting our shipments, And accordingly, we withheld Paloma production capacity where we were not able to match shipments with underlying customer demand and needed to manage our inventory levels. The shipping market disruption is primarily related to vessel and container availability given trade flow changes. And unlike a lot of the other markets in the global liner container shipping industry, we have not experienced any significant increase in freight costs, only the disruption in availability. We're expecting the shipping impacts to normalise over time as trade flows adjust. The weighted average sales price for the quarter was, as we mentioned, $474 a tonne. During the quarter, our primary sales focus was on re-establishing fine shipments to the battery supply chain in China, with fine sales accounting for approximately 90% of overall product sales. This was an intentional strategy and it did weigh down our basket price during this quarter. However, Valama's sales mix is expected to trend closer to the production mix in the future. And importantly, we saw a stable fines pricing environment through the quarter despite the resumption of our production and Chinese fines production, seasonal production. Cross-state prices have remained strong and stable during the quarter and are materially higher than comparable prices when Valama's production was moderated at the end of 2019. that being due to strong industrial sector and steel demand. Moving on to Vidalia, slides 11 and 12 pile up the progress we're making with operations and our planned expansion to 10,000 tonnes of anode material production capacity. We achieved a key milestone during Q2 at Vidalia that advances our strategy of becoming a large-scale supplier of anode material to ex-Asian markets. we produced fully integrated production of on-specification anode material from the carbonisation furnace at Vidalia. Thermal treatment of the coated anode precursor was the final stage of processing the natural graphite to produce an anode material for direct use in lithium-ion batteries from Vidalia. Now, Oli owned an integrated spherical purification and furnace operation at Vidalia, which uses natural graphite from Bellarmine as the only fully integrated and commercial-scale anode material supply source outside of China and is now producing active anode material for qualification with multiple potential customers. During the quarter, we also implemented a new organisational structure at Vidalia to deliver the expansion project, optimise processes and technical development and to enhance our operational readiness. Anne Duncan joined SARA as Vice President of USA Processing Operations and was previously a global director at Hatch, responsible for its global bauxite and alumina portfolio, and has held senior operational leadership roles at Clio Tinto. All key Syrac employees at Vidalia have been retained in the new organisational structure. Product development continues to be a focus for Vidalia, and with a number of initiatives underway internally and with external partners to enhance the company's future product roadmap. Our market entry plan, which has been informed by our customer interactions, is focused on a base 16 micron product. And we are also looking into 12 micron products, which we're currently producing both of these products for qualification testing. So I've engaged with more than 10 target battery manufacturer and auto OEM customers on qualification and advanced testing programs are underway with key target customers. We've received positive initial technical feedback on our integrated anode material from the furnace. Target customers are progressing full cell cycle testing of Vidalia anode material in Q3 this year. So engagement with target customers is underpinned by the technical performance of Vidalia anode material and Vidalia itself being an advanced US-based supply alternative to Asia with strong ESG credentials. Obviously, natural graphite products from Valama has already been in use in lithium ion batteries in electric vehicles through processing by Chinese in-use customers and has been for a number of years. So Vidalia has been about demonstrating that we've taken Valama product ourselves and produced natural graphite active anode material from Vidalia from an integrated facility through a US-based source of material. Turning to slide 12, we're also making rapid progress on the expansion project. And during the quarter, we fully transitioned to detailed engineering and procurement planning for the expansion and have awarded Worley Services contracts for this phase of the project. This continues our successful technical partnership with the global Worley team for Vidalia. The engineering completed to date refined the critical path for the expansion and to mitigate risks and maintain schedule, we are proceeding with some staged procurement for selected early long lead items. And importantly, overall estimated capital costs for the facility remain consistent with the BFS estimate with the full contingency intact. With the assistance of Greenhill, the company is advancing processes customer offtake, strategic partners and financing commitments for the construction of the 10,000 tonne facility and we'll disclose more details around those commitments as they're finalised. We're committed to advancing and concluding the various work streams at Pedalia so that we're in a position to make the final investment decision on constructing the facility in the second half of this year subject to customer and financing commitments. And I want to re-emphasise that 10,000 tonnes capacity is not the end game for us at Pedalia, but rather the next step. The BFS assessed options for a 10,000 tonnes facility and for 40,000 tonnes capacity, and in time we aim to expand production subject to demand and customer commitments. And we certainly see strong interest in greater capacity given the expansion plans that potential customers have underway already. Slides 13 through 19 provide some additional detail on the progress and market around Vidalia. As shown on slide 13, the past six months have seen us building out our commercial anode material operations and advancing the expansion project, and more progress is expected in this half. On slide 14, the project steps from today onward shown are largely dependent on customer engagement and funding. Our engineering and design work provides a great base and in conjunction with our integrated production, delivering material into qualification, we're progressing those strategic customer and financial cooperation discussions. Final investment decision for commercial production, sorry, final investment decision to commercial production is expected to take two years with timing to deliver anode materials to the market being dependent on the final investment starting gun and around 18 months of construction. Slide 15 re-emphasises the key outcomes of the BFS released in Q4 last year and highlights the robust financial proposition for the planned expansions of the natural graphite production facility. We see the Vidalia project as commercially attractive and unique, with a globally competitive cost structure that leverages our integrated production position, scale and progress to date, as well as other advantages including location, supply chain diversification and auditable ESG credentials. We continue to see that the level of work combined from Valama and Vidalia just has not been done elsewhere outside China and Asia. and is therefore being seen as a key advantage for Syrah. Moving on to slide 18 and 19 to touch on the market in the US, battery manufacturers have announced significant new projects, both in auto OEM partnerships and in standalone production to potentially service multiple OEMs. It's forecast that US battery manufacturing capacity will more than quadruple. 253 gigawatt-hours by 2025 and reached 487 gigawatt-hours by 2030. 10,000 tonnes of anode material capacity at Bedelia equates to approximately only 3% of total graphite anode material required to support forecast 2025 North American manufacturing capacity. So the timing and extent of the demand opportunity continues to improve exponentially. Finally, on slide 20, the company's market re-entry has been supported by constructive upstream natural graphite market conditions, with Palama being ramped up ahead of schedule and strong operational performance being demonstrated. And this in conjunction with our robust cash position and the various work streams being advanced at the daily have positioned CSIRO to become the key ex-China sustainable supplier of quality natural graphite and anode material products, enabled by differentiated vertical integration and the Tier 1 resource at Balaam. We're very positive about the next half, and our planned objectives over the second half of 2021 are to increase alarmed plant utilisation and natural graphite production in line with market demand and shipping availability and in line with our full contracting with an initial target of around 15,000 tonnes per month. Secondly, we're looking to secure customer and financing commitments to underpin the final investment decision for the construction of a 10,000 tonne facility at Vidalia. Thirdly, to complete detailed engineering and procurement planning for Vidalia's expansion and seamlessly transition to the construction phase subject to that final investment decision. And finally, to maintain a liquidity position to preserve flexibility in the Bulama ramp-up and advance Adelia to the final investment decision. So overall, we see a positive period ahead for us in the second half of 2021 with a number of catalysts, and we look forward to keeping you fully informed. And with that, we'll transition to take any questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question today, please press star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press the pound or hash key. Once again, it is star 1 if you wish to ask a question today. And our first question comes to the line of Mark Fisher from Foster Stockbroking. Please go ahead.

speaker
Mark Fisher
Analyst, Foster Stockbroking

behind shores and restorations on the quarter. Just a couple of questions. Firstly, on the product mix you mentioned, obviously you shipped more horse material in the June quarter and you expected the trim to normalise in the current quarter and going forward. Would that imply sort of more of an 80-20 split in terms of fines to course or... Maybe just can you comment on that, how you see that in the current quarter and going forward?

speaker
Sean Verner
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think in Q2 the product mix was around 86% times 14% course. And, you know, we're obviously seeking to optimise that course like percentage. and ensure that the sales mix is reflecting that as well. So we do see an opportunity to improve that mix in favour, of course, over the coming quarters. And now that we've re-established deliveries into China for the fines materials, we think we can rebalance that mix according to the product mix.

speaker
Mark Fisher
Analyst, Foster Stockbroking

Right, OK. And... And obviously you mentioned about the interruption on the shipping side. I was wondering for the current quarter, can you ship more than you achieved in the June quarter, or is that sort of that June quarter shipping reflective of the constraints you're facing at the moment, and can you get above that sort of shipping rate that you achieved previously?

speaker
Sean Verner
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we're certainly aiming to, Mark. I think we've been working incredibly hard to try and secure the certainty around vessel schedule availability, space and container availability. and we're making some good progress on that front and certainly the target for Q3 is to ship more than we did in Q2 to facilitate obviously clearing the inventory that's already there and facilitating further production. So it's definitely the absolute focus of the sales and logistics team in Dubai.

speaker
Mark Fisher
Analyst, Foster Stockbroking

Okay, thanks.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

And our next question today comes in the line of Greg Hockey from Shaw & Partners. Please go ahead.

speaker
Greg Hockey
Analyst, Shaw & Partners

Hello, Sean. Thank you. I was just interested in the breakdown of the graphite production through the last quarter each month. I know there was 29,000, but I'm particularly interested in the June month, but the other two as well. And also, do you mind commenting on the vanadium, which was mentioned in the slides, but not by you, to sort of give a brief rundown on what's happening there? Thank you.

speaker
Sean Verner
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Sure Greg, no problem. So we don't split the production by month in the reporting. I think it's fair to say during the course of the quarter that recoveries improved through each of the months of the quarter. We averaged 76% and had 80% recovery in June. We're essentially at the moment running campaign operations through Balaama subject to the inventory level. We've been constrained in each quarter on that basis and obviously looking as I said earlier to have the shipping constraints and impacts relieve that and get back to continuous operations. But certainly we've been very pleased with how the plant has come back online for the first full quarter. In terms of vanadium, we've obviously had information out there for a long period of time around scoping studies that were carried out and a revision to that scoping, the initial scoping study that was done in 2018. We've held the view that we need to be closer to full capacity utilisation at ALAMA to make vanadium processing make sense and also to have a greater degree of confidence around continuing to increase production from that sort of 50% capacity utilisation target we're at at the moment. What we've started to do, obviously the market for graphite at the period that we're restarting, market demand coming from batteries is essentially double what it was at the point that we suspended production. So that gives us a very good basis for confidence that we'll grow from here and be able to pick up that capacity utilisation. And as a result, we've started to re-engage with some potential parties that we had discussed the name opportunity with before. Ultimately, if things develop according to what the scoping study envisaged, We see that there's potential to produce somewhere between 5 and 5,500 tonnes a year of vanadium pentoxide, two grades out of the llama, and obviously capital investment around that. And given it's a small and concentrated market, we're starting early in engagement with potential off-takers or partners around the potential to take that project forward. So early stage, but certainly the underlying rapid market condition improvements have put us back on track to be looking at that opportunity. Thank you. That's great. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Once again, if you do wish to ask a question today, it's star 1 on your telephone. Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Harrington from Petro Capital. Please ask your question. Good morning, James.

speaker
Andrew Harrington
Analyst, Petro Capital

Thanks for your time. A couple of questions. First of all, what is the rough freight costs to China from the port? And when you say sales mix will normalize to a high cost fraction, you're sort of rough production mix is about 85%. What do you expect it to go to?

speaker
Sean Verner
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Yep. Okay, thanks for the questions, Andrew. In terms of freight, so freight rates to China have been as low as $25 to $35 a tonne. They have increased probably about $10 a ton. The average freight across the book at the moment is around $50 a ton, so it's a little higher We were seeing probably 40, 45 last time we operated, but not a significant increase to China. In terms of the product mix or the product sales mix, ultimately it comes back to the production mix of coarse flake and fine. So if we can lift that coarse flake from China 15%, 20%, et cetera, then we will match that sales mix against that as soon as we can. So ultimately just depending on how the production mix comes through. Okay. Right.

speaker
Andrew Harrington
Analyst, Petro Capital

And what's the, if I can follow up, what's the rough pricing you would be getting for the course product at the day's market or you're expected over the next six to 12 months?

speaker
Sean Verner
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

The only pricing commentary that we provide is a basket price. We've found historically that splitting those out and providing commentary around them has been commercially challenging for us. So we don't make sense of what the cost versus funds prices are. Okay. No worries. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

And your next question today comes to the line of James Stewart from Ausville. Please go ahead.

speaker
James Stewart
Analyst, Ausville

Thanks, Sean. Thanks for your time. Let's assume you could ramp up and ramp down quickly. I'm keen to understand what sort of value you think you could place into the market at the moment without having too much impact on pricing.

speaker
Sean Verner
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think we made a decision, James, to bring... the operation back online and we've said previously that it only made sense to do that at a minimum of 15,000 tonnes market to month, so that gives you a sense for what drove that decision. Nothing has changed with regard to the underlying demand that's there that drove that decision and as you probably gather from the commentary I made during the call, if anything market conditions are strengthening. So we're certainly quite comfortable with what we could put into the market at 15 and beyond if the shipping impacts are not there at the moment. So obviously it's a huge focus to try and resolve those impacts.

speaker
James Stewart
Analyst, Ausville

So you're suggesting that there is the potential to place more volume over and above the 15 into the market at the moment, based on what you're seeing fairly comfortably, excluding the shipping issues?

speaker
Sean Verner
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I'm suggesting that the decision to restart was made with 15 as a target, and the market conditions are at least as strong, if not stronger, than when we made that call. So you can infer that. Perfect. Thank you, Sean. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Once again, if you wish to ask a question today, it's star one on your telephone. Your next question comes to the line of Andrew Harrington from Patrick Capital. Please go ahead. Hi, good day, Tim.

speaker
Andrew Harrington
Analyst, Petro Capital

It's round two. What's the current available capacity at Vidalia, and how much have you spent to date with Vidalia? I'm assuming roughly capex is 140, is that correct? Yeah, that's right.

speaker
Sean Verner
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So the capex for a 10,000 tonne plant is about $138 million. Some portion of that is being spent through the detailed design that's being done. We've announced previously about $10 million that is already underway. In terms of the overall spend, the way we look at it is what have we spent on the anode material development program since its inception, including Vidalia, which is over $60 million US. The volumes that we can produce currently out of Vidalia are enough to demonstrate commercial scale equipment capability utilisation. They're in the hundreds of tonnes per year. We have significantly greater milling and shaping capacity. With the purification and furnace operations, we deliberately scaled at the 100 tons level because that's what was required for qualification before a final investment decision.

speaker
Andrew Harrington
Analyst, Petro Capital

As a follow-up, does the product, your sales intention, go to only U.S. customers?

speaker
Sean Verner
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

We've clearly outlined before that we see the opportunity to export to Europe, but when you look at the volatility against the demand levels domestically in the US by the time it comes online, we think that the vast majority will be sold in the US. Okay. Thank you very much. Great. With that, I think there's probably, I can't see any further questions, so we might call an end to that there and thank everyone for their participation today and we look forward to providing ongoing updates through the next quarter and look forward to some further public development.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

So thanks for the attention. Ladies and gentlemen, that does include today's conference call. We thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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