Syrah Resources Limited

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Cyber Resources Limited Q3 quarterly results update call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, you'll need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Sean Verner, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. With me on the call are Stephen Wells, our Chief Financial Officer, and Viren Hira, our GM of Investor Relations and Business Development. Natural graphite market conditions in the year to date have underperformed the trajectory of electric vehicle sales globally. In contrast to the short-term situation, however, increasing regional demand and the imperative to create secure supply chains for critical minerals, including in graphite and battery anode materials, has continued unabated. Recent market conditions in China, resulting in the need for dynamic operating responses, have been challenging. But we're focused on making the best of the short-term situation and readying to benefit from the extraordinary opportunities that Zyra has ahead. considering the forecast growth in demand for our products, highly supportive changes in the way the global supply chain for critical minerals will operate in future, our unique market and asset position outside China, and the strong support we have from customers, government and other stakeholders to grow our business. Maintaining independence and investment in progress now positions the company for the inevitable demand growth for our products, particularly in ex-China markets. and it's key to profitability, shareholder value growth, and share price returns. Key points to highlight in the September 2023 quarter are the implementation of all measures identified for the revised BALAMA operating mode outlined last quarter, full operational implementation of our significant solar and battery system, which will supply 35% of power requirements at BALAMA, navigation of market conditions to an improved demand picture, and the resumption of purchasing volumes from China. Implementation of our medium-term natural graphite sales diversification strategy, capitalising on the emergence of ex-China anode material projects. Strong progression with the development of current and future anode material production capacity at Vidalia, with the planned start of production of the 11,000 tonne facility in Q4. progress in pre-FID activities for further expansion and increasing commercial attention for more significant anode supply from Vardalia, and ensuring the capability to work through the uncertain market conditions and resultant operational and project requirements through building our funding optionality. I acknowledge both the volatility of this journey and the commitment required from our investors, our team and our stakeholders. That commitment is being rewarded with a uniquely differentiated asset position, long life and growth optionality, and a market position which, after the pain of development, we believe will provide years of competitive advantage. Today, we'll cover three key areas and use the presentation we released along with the quarterly report. Firstly, we'll look at the concrete deliverables that demonstrate what Syrah is achieving and how that sets us well apart from other current and emerging suppliers. We'll look at third quarter performance, focusing on market conditions, the Lama operating performance, progress in the expansion of Bedelia and Cyrus financial position, and look at the outlook for the company. We'll start today on slide seven of the presentation pack. Given the point of progression of the company and the challenges experienced over the past two years, market focus has been on short-term conditions, funding, and cash flow, and that's understandable. But it's incumbent on us to continue to shine a light on the fundamentally differentiated position Syrah occupies and the work that has been completed to date and that which remains underway, demonstrating a completely different upstream scale, downstream integration and ESG commitment than the bulk of the industry. And this slide highlights concrete progress and major milestones that Syrah has achieved. that provide a platform for us far ahead of all other non-China integrated production capacity in the anode market. We're weeks away from becoming the first and only vertically integrated natural graphite anode producer outside China, underpinned by our Balama asset, our long-term and expandable offtake with Tesla, and deep customer engagement with other major players such as LG, Ford, SK and Samsung under MOUs for further developments. We've supplied almost half a million tonnes of high-grade natural graphite into the global supply chain over recent years, with unhighlighted penetration into many key battery suppliers' product lines. We've implemented a major solar and battery system upstream at Belum, which further increases our leading audited LCA position on global warming potential against competing Chinese products, where we are materially lower impact on emissions than both Chinese benchmarks Naturals and synthetic graphite producers. We continue to invest strongly in Vidalia to deliver an environmentally differentiated anode material production capacity with strong expansion capability. And we built Balama and Vidalia's operations with a commitment to best practice ESG frameworks, such as the ICMM mining principles and global standard for tailings storage management, the initiative for responsible mining assurance, and UN global reporting initiatives and sustainable development goals. and they are things that other anode material producers simply do not do. We've achieved deep strategic funding support from the US Department of Energy for Vidalia and a developing one with the Development Finance Corporation for Bulama that demonstrate the critical minerals position of our operations. We've set up both operations to be cost competitive and are pursuing with absolute focus the need to generate greater cash flow for the business. At the same time, we've invested heavily in developing an integrated business that will benefit from long-term, unique market access and pricing differentiation as the demand fundamentals align with supply. Ultimately, we believe that further pricing differentials will be evident in a bifurcated market that must reward those suppliers investing in high-quality, responsible operations, lower emissions intensity and positive stakeholder benefit across the supply chain. Assurance on these fronts takes years, and as customers and governments choose higher standards in future, the investments that we've made already will pay dividends. Turning to third quarter market conditions on slides eight and nine of today's presentation. Chinese natural graphite demand conditions remained weak through the first half of the third quarter, due to consumption of anode material inventory, aggressive production volumes with price discounting from synthetic graphite anode suppliers in China, and domestic natural graphite production volumes. However, natural graphite market in China improved in the latter half of the quarter, with increased demand ahead of the winter period of lower Chinese natural graphite production, and with spherical graphite processes and natural graphite anode producers increasing production capacity utilization as orders from lithium ion battery cell producers improved. Downstream leading indicators for natural graphite are positive. Global EV sales grew 18% in Q3 from Q2 and were up 41% year-on-year to approximately 4.1 million units. Stronger EV sales and higher production of lithium ion battery cells after a significant reduction in cell inventories are indicators of reinvigorated consumption of anode material. Overall, anode production increased 30% in Q3, sequentially from Q2, and 37% year-on-year as orders from cell producers started to recover. Anode production growth is still lagging EB sales growth, illustrating that downstream inventory consumption continues. As shown in Chinese anode production data, synthetic graphite anode production capacity growth in China, which represents the majority of overall anode production growth over the past year, has been significant. Aggressive pricing has caused intense competition amongst new and incumbent synthetic graphite anode producers. This has in turn driven significant utilization of higher sulfur input materials and shortened graphitization processing cycle times which facilitate a decrease in price, but also produce lower quality and lower performance synthetic graphite anode products. Whilst there's pricing pressure in the Chinese anode market caused by aggressive market penetration behaviour from synthetic graphite producers, our view remains this is unsustainable, with pricing well below cost for much of the production capacity. Even the major Chinese anode producers are experiencing significant margin pressure. Substitution is most prevalent in the Chinese domestic battery market rather than the ex-China export markets. The current convergence of prices for low-end synthetic graphite anode and natural graphite anode appears to be unsustainable, and any increase in costs of power, graphitisation, which is up off its recent lows, or coke materials is expected to immediately drive higher synthetic graphite anode prices. SARA expects that underutilization of expanded synthetic graphite anode capacity and loss-making prices caused by intense competition will inevitably lead to some consolidation of marginal synthetic graphite capacity, which will ultimately support higher pricing for both synthetic graphite and natural graphite anode materials. Domestic natural graphite production in China increased seasonally through the quarter, with reported natural graphite prices in China falling by 20% to 30% since the beginning of 2023. However, increased demand has resulted in pricing moving off the lows later in the quarter. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reports that domestic natural graphite producers are under cost pressure from a combination of lower grade ores, poorer recoveries and other factors requiring prices to rise for them to be profitable. Increased sales from previously warehouse stock and forthcoming domestic winter production shutdowns are expected to improve the supply demand position in SARA's favour. With costs exceeding price at several points across the anode supply chain, increased anode demand driven by higher EV sales will require higher prices to incentivise increased production with higher natural graphite supply required from ex-China sources. Irrespective of current pricing differentials, the ESG profile of artificial graphite production remains deeply challenging given the power usage and emissions intensity from the high-temperature, long-duration process of graphitising petroleum and coal-based cokes. So whilst conditions in the Chinese anode market have been challenging for Syrah, there are indicators of strengthening in the near term. EV sales growth has continued this quarter and expectations for Q4 are positive. Battery cell demand and capacity utilisation is increasing. Anode production, while still growing strongly, is at a slower pace than EV sales growth, so downstream inventory positions are being cleared. Spherical graphite capacity utilisation is increasing and natural graphite demand is coming through. And whilst excess production capacity, intensive price-based competition and lower input costs have seen natural graphite and synthetic graphite anode prices converge, resulting in some cost-based switching, the prevailing synthetic price does not appear to be sustainable with graphitisation and other production costs seeming to have bottomed, which will lead to demand and pricing support for natural graphite anode materials. These items should assist in rebalancing the market, and the longer-term opportunities for natural graphite and SIRA are even more positive. Overall, EV demand growth continues, and anode inventory will continue to clear. September 2023 global EV sales were above 1.5 million units, a monthly record. Chinese natural graphite anode capacity growth and utilisation are increasing, and they require natural graphite fees. The number of new Chinese natural graphite anode projects will enter production this year and into 2024. And the US Inflation Reduction Act and EU policy directives mean that ex-China anode producers are accelerating plans to build capacity offshore. In Korea, the US, India, Europe and Indonesia. And that all requires ex-China third-party natural graphite feed, where Bulama is currently the only major option. Chinese mine capacity growth has been minimal and grade and cost pressures are challenging. And finally, ESG implications as well as technical characteristics, customer preferences and lower costs of production through the cycle mean significant volumes of natural graphite will be required in both China and the ex-China markets. The implications for Syrah today that the company will continue to focus on immediate natural graphite sales from inventory and new production where warranted, managing Balama production campaigns to achieve the lowest possible cost at the relevant demand levels, producing to support a minimum average 10,000 tonnes per month sales each quarter. We will continue to be clear with customers on the prices required for higher supply of our products, considering operating costs, and we'll be highly focused on developing natural graphite sales into new customers outside of China to achieve our sales diversification targets and drive our anode marketing strategy in the US to gain value from our differentiated production position. I'll hand over to Steve now to provide some comments on Bulama's operational and cost performance, and we'll move to slides 13 and 14. Steve? Thanks, Sean.

As Sean mentioned, through the quarter, SARA implemented all measures identified for the revised BALAMA operating mode outlined in the presentation last quarter. Significantly lower sales to Chinese anode customers and inventory positions in Mozambique and offshore led to the ongoing pause in production from BALAMA extending from May and June in Q2 to July and most of August in Q3 before production resumed at the end of August. This decision was made to allow for downstream inventory consumption to occur and natural graphite demand conditions to improve. The plant was operated through a relatively uninterrupted 32-day campaign from late August through September to produce 18,000 tonnes of natural graphite during the quarter, and the production campaign continued into October 2023 to increase finished product inventory positions given improved marketing conditions. Stable operation performance at Bulama was reached within two weeks of production resumption, after a four-month shutdown, and product recovery and quality improved through the campaign with uninterrupted production and greater stability in processing operations. In future campaigns with shorter shutdown periods, we expect that stability can be achieved in plant operations more quickly than two weeks. In the last two weeks of the quarter, Alarma achieved on average a 20,000 tonne per month daily production run rate and 82% recovery, and strong operational performance continued into October. C1 costs were US$484 per tonne in September's operational period, despite the impact of lower-than-targeted production to that 20,000-tonne level, lower-than-targeted recovery and high diesel costs, and trended towards cost guidance during operating periods in the revised operating mode. These unit costs again demonstrate what Balama can do when operating at its intended capacity and its sustainable cost position. C1 fixed costs for the shutdown period were approximately $4 million per month on average, which matched cost guidance and with further variable mining and production logistic costs of approximately $1 million per month in preparation for production campaign and for ongoing product sales. The Mozambique wholesale diesel price set by the government decreased by 17% over the quarter, although that is still above the long-term average. We will continue to operate Valama in campaign operating mode in the December quarter, with further 30-day high-capacity utilisation production campaigns, followed by a curtailment period determined by inventory levels and new sales demand. Further production campaigns will be dependent on sales from inventory and new sales orders at production volumes averaging at least $10,000 per month over the quarter. And if improved demand is sustained, the company expects to undertake one 20,000 tonne production campaign in Q4 while ensuring also that we can return to higher capacity utilization of BALAMA quickly should natural graphite demand increase further. During the quarter, SARA commenced full operations of the 11.25 megawatt solar array and 8.5 megawatt battery energy storage system at BALAMA. The entire solar array, incorporating over 20,000 solar modules with a surface area of approximately 5.4 hectares, is fully integrated to the battery storage system. and the array operated and generated power to its intended design capacity and profile over duration to achieve full operations. The Balaama solar battery system is one of the largest installed in a mine in Africa and will supply 35% of average site power requirements, significantly reducing diesel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions at Balaama and yielding associated cost savings, which are incorporated into our cost guidance. SARA is progressing the evaluation of options to further optimise BALAMA's power generation to reduce operating costs, further lower greenhouse gas emissions of BALAMA products and ensure reliable power supply with high capacity plant utilisation. Otherwise at BALAMA during the last quarter, SARA continued its high performance in sustainability activities as noted in our quarterly sustainability report which is also released on our website today. The security environment across Cabo Delgado remains stable with major LNG projects in the province potentially being restarted. later this year. I'll now pass it back to Sean to talk through Balaama sales and marketing and also progress at Vidalia.

Thanks Steve. Moving to sales and marketing on slide 16. Natural graphite sales to third party customers for the quarter were 23,000 tonnes. Sales increased from the June quarter with increased sales of Chinese anode customers as anode inventory rebalanced and spherical graphite producers increased their capacity utilization. Coarse flake demand remains strong, but given available inventory and campaign production, Syrah prioritized fine sales into increased anode material demand. Low demand into Chinese anode customers in the first half of the quarter limited overall natural graphite sales during the quarter. However, increased sales from inventory and a break-bulk shipment from Pemba were completed in the latter part of the quarter. Shipments of fines from Balama to Vidalia continued with a total of 4,000 tonnes shipped in Q3 in readiness for production in the US. The weighted average sales price to third-party customers for Q3 was $528 a tonne SIF, which was lower compared to the June 23 quarter due to significantly higher fines sales volumes into the anode supply chain and lower prices during China's domestic production season, despite the improved demand. Fine sales accounted for 87% of product sales to third-party customers in Q3, compared with around 20% in Q2. The weighted average shipping cost for external sales for Q3 was $78 a tonne, which included deferred cost recognition for material in Chinese inventory, The average rate is expected to decrease in Q4 due to lower freight rates across our destinations, but particularly to China. As mentioned earlier, US and European demand for diversified anode sourcing is accelerating to mitigate geopolitical risk and to reduce sole reliance on China, as well as satisfying requirements of various government policy programs. This has resulted in the pipeline of potential ex-China natural graphite anode capital projects growing over the last 12 months. Commercial activity relating to long-term feed supply from 2024 onward has increased to underpin investment approvals for these projects. In Q3, Syrah announced multi-year offtake agreements for Balama natural graphite supply into the US with Westwater and GraphX. And we're engaged commercially with four additional projects globally for long-term natural graphite supply from Valama. And there is increasing interest from battery manufacturers and auto OEMs in directly contracting sustainable upstream supply of XChina natural graphite to direct through their anode processing partners. Syrah's medium-term natural graphite sales strategy will balance integrated consumption through Vidalia with an increasing proportion of sales volume XChina and residual sales volumes to China. We'll move now to the Vidalia Anode Material Project expansion on slide 17 and 18. The Vidalia Anode Material Project was at its construction peak during Q3 and is nearing completion. Final piping and electrical construction on the critical path, commissioning already underway, and a sequential production commencement through the three key areas of the plant planned for first production in this current December quarter. Given its first-of-a-kind nature outside of China, we're very pleased with how the project has progressed, despite some minor delays and further capital escalation. Substantial progress in the 11.25 thousand tonne capacity project, integrated through spherical and anode material production, has seen all major mechanical installation complete, readiness of the milling circuits and substantial progress towards completion of purification and furnace operations. Operational readiness for the facility has been a major focus with recruitment and training. The operating team is largely in place. Transition to 24-7 shift operations through commissioning underway. Tie-in and planned restart of the Phase 1 qualification facility and laboratory progressing and preparation of operating, quality and maintenance systems to support commencement of production. This work is on track to continue to support the planned commissioning schedule and activities required prior to start-up. There is a real sense of excitement at Vidalia as the team prepares to produce anode material at scale and commence the final mass production qualification activities that will support the start of commercial sales in 2024. Planning for qualification activities is underway with customers and we look forward to continuing the highly collaborative engagement we have had to date as both customers and US government see Vidalia as critical to increasing anode supply chain capability and sourcing diversification. We've provided some more detailed pictures in the quarterly report document today of progress and will release an updated video fly-through to the website later this week. SARA has revised the total installed capital cost estimate of the Vidalia initial expansion project to $198 million, representing a 13% increase from the FID estimate of $176 million. The escalation is primarily associated with unanticipated labour-intensive construction costs to maintain the project schedule and higher-than-expected costs to certain structural materials, as previously disclosed. along with some minor mechanical and electrical corrections required as we need completion. At quarter end, US $161 million of project capital costs have been spent on the Vidalia project, with further capital costs accrued. Following completion of major contract sourcing and team recruitment, SARAs revised the operating cost estimate for Vidalia to $3.64 per kilogram of anode material, representing a 17% cost escalation from the FID estimate. In April 2023, SARA announced the completion of the DFS for the expansion of Bedelia's production capacity to 45,000 tonnes of anode material, inclusive of the 11.25 thousand initial facility to be commissioned this quarter. The DFS demonstrated capital efficiency, notwithstanding higher capex than previous estimates, OPEX economies of scale and estimated project economics were compelling across a realistic anode material price range. SARA is progressing transition engineering and optimisation activities, permitting another long lead procurement activities ahead of an FRD proposal on the Vidalia further expansion project to be considered by the SARA report. Whilst the company is progressing operational processes and customer commitment to underpin readiness for an FRD as quickly as possible, We now expect to finalise FRD during the first half of 2024, given the need to further progress funding options appropriate to the company's overall financial position and equity market conditions. Detailed engineering, long lead items and other procurement and construction activities will follow the SARA Board approved FRD sequentially. I'll just hand back to Steve now to discuss the financial position.

Steve? Thanks, Sean. Total cash at the CSIRO group at the end of the quarter was $81 million compared to $101 million at the end of the second quarter. Restricted cash at the end of the quarter was $31 million and represents cash balances held at the Vidalia project in operating accounts, loan accounts, including funds from the first and second loan drawdowns, and also reserve accounts. This includes cash amounts in loan reserve accounts, which are typical of a project finance loan, as well as proceeds remaining from the second drawdown of $44 million from the DOE loan facility during the second quarter, which were not yet used for project costs. Following the end of the third quarter, the third and final tranche of the DOE loan was drawn to assist with funding the completion of construction. Unrestricted cash represents cash elsewhere in the group other than the Vidalia initial expansion project, with uses of unrestricted cash including funding Balama Capital and Working Capital, corporate purposes, any additional capital requirements for the Vidalia initial expansion and growth initiatives, including the Vidalia further expansion. The unrestricted cash balance at the end of the quarter was $50 million, with operating cash outflows reflecting the pause in Valama operations in July and August and the fixed costs incurred during this period, as well as the fixed and variable costs during the period of production offset by natural graphite sales and receipts. And as a result, net working capital outflow at Valama was $6 million for the entire quarter. In addition, there was an increase in the Vidalia initial expansion project capital budget, resulting in a transfer of funds from unrestricted cash to the project and the restricted cash balances, but again, offset by proceeds from the issue of convertible note series five. Net cash outflows from investing activities across the group of $37 million was principally for the Vidalia initial expansion project, as well as TSF expansion at the Llama, with Cell 2A being completed, We do not anticipate further TSF spend over the remaining part of 2023 and possibly into 2024. Net cash inflows from financing activities of $32 million was associated with the issue of the new convertible note. During the quarter, Syrah shareholders approved the issue of the new Australian super convertible notes to fund a $10 million increase in capital costs for the initial expansion of Adalia and also to provide further liquidity for Bulama Requirements Considering natural graphite marking conditions which remain uncertain, SARA issued the second Australian $50 million series of the new convertible notes with Australian super in August 2023. SARA will issue the final $50 million Australian series later this month, primarily to fund working capital associated with the start of production in Vidalia. We continue to progress funding processes with the US Department of Energy. and the US Development Finance Corp on funding requirements for Vidalia further expansion and Balaama respectively. We have been invited to due diligence by the DOE for another loan to fund a significant portion of the Vidalia expansion project and sign a conditional loan commitment for up to $150 million in debt financing for Balaama from the US Development Finance Corp. I'll now pass you back to Sean to make some concluding remarks.

Thanks, Steve. So in conclusion today, despite recent unanticipated market dynamics and China's dominant position in our markets currently, the potential of Syrah's position is tremendous considering the quality and progress of the Balama and Vidalia assets. In the near term, uncertainty in demand and challenges of Chinese natural graphite and artificial graphite behaviour and surplus synthetic graphite products anode capacity have frustrated our drive toward positive operating cash flow. But this market can change quickly. We are seeing improvement and we are ready to respond. In addition, the significant opportunity of natural graphite anode demand in the ex-China markets beyond the near term is clear. Syrah is the only major ex-China player this far progressed, both upstream and downstream. I was at Balama again last week seeing that even in campaign mode, it is the highest quality natural graphite asset in the world and the one that has the best potential to supply into growing natural graphite demand in the battery anode market and to be at the low end of the cost curve at volume. Ex-China merchant anode capacity will grow from 2024 and we're well positioned to expand our fine sales to these quality customers to balance our sales to China with the commercial arrangements already in place and more being negotiated. We have fully implemented sensible operating mode changes in light of the prevailing market, and in the downstream at Vidalia, we're the only major ex-China integrated operator that's bringing product to market with an anode material offtake in place and long-term internal access to quality fine speed. The progress of Vidalia's current expansion and further expansion provide enormous opportunity and fundamentally differentiate Syrah from the competition, based on realistic market assessments and development experience. Managing significant capital investments to set up the business for the longer term whilst navigating volatile market conditions at the same time is not easy. However, we see meaningful catalysts coming through for the rest of 2023 and into 2024, with the start of Vidalia's commercial operations, further long-term supply arrangements for both Vidalia and Balama, readying an FID on the next phase of downstream expansion and also the potential for further improvement in natural graphite market conditions. Our team is intensely focused on succeeding in delivering on the company's objectives, which will grow shareholder value. The opportunity for Syrah remains highly leveraged to the uptake in EVs and in lithium-ion battery cell production, particularly in the earlier stage ex-China markets. We're certain that if these market fundamentals and the need for supply security play out as many expect, SARA's market-leading ex-China position will deliver profitability, value and share price performance. And with that, we'll move on to Q&A.

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you'd like to cancel your request, please press star 2. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question today comes from Mark Ficarra from Foster Stock Broking.

Yes. Please go ahead, Mark. Yeah, just a question on the China market. You obviously mentioned that the market's improving and we've seen signs with that with obviously your sales during the quarter. What do you see in terms of the price obviously still weak? When do you expect to see a pickup in the price or how do you see that price sort of interacting with improvement in markets? If you can just give some colour on that. Thanks.

Yeah, so the first thing just to re-emphasise is the high proportion of fine sales during the quarter which had an impact on that weighted average basket price. I think The two key catalysts, of course, for price improvement are ongoing increase in demand and we're hoping to see the anode material supply chain and the spherical graphite processes continue to lift their capacity utilization and see further orders come through. But just as important will be the seasonal decline in natural graphite production in China, which tends to occur through October, November as they head into winter. So it is an interesting point in time because it's the first increase in natural graphite consumption we've seen in some time. The underlying demand drivers of EV and battery cell growth look good, and we are heading into that phase production down season for natural graphite in China. So it is a good setup for some improvement in price.

Thanks. And just one more from me. Just regarding Vidalia with the commissioning, I understand there's a qualification period when you ship the product to Tesla. I was just wondering, how does that impact sort of the sales cycle and Is the qualification, do you expect that, given the work you've done previously, to be quite standard and expect that to be quite straightforward? Or is there any sort of lengthy period that we should be expecting before you receive any payments for the shipped product?

Yeah, so the qualification process is really about the mass production or the production from the product the phase two facility meeting the specification and replicating the performance of the material that was produced from the phase one qualification facility. We have obviously done a lot of work with our offtake partner and with others who are looking to purchase material from Bedelia. So we understand those specifications well. We have produced to those requirements and know what we need to do from phase two. Ultimately, the timing of that will be well into 2024, and the primary reason for that is the cycle testing requirements of customers. So you receive the majority of specification performance results relatively quickly around quality, physical properties, electrochemical performance, but the cycle testing process is in the hands of the customer. And ultimately, for the Tesla contract to move to operational status, we need to be producing at a pro rata equivalent of 8,000 tonnes per annum. And we need to have moved through that cycle testing process with them. So we don't have a firm plan Timeline for that at the moment is something that we'll continue to work through with Tesla. But our view, of course, is that this is IRA-compliant material, and it is in the interests of customers to get this into the supply chain.

Right. So you would expect in the first quarter, say 2024, to have, if all goes well on the qualification side, that first revenue's coming in?

We can't put a timeline on that, Mark. As I said, the cycle testing timeline is in the hands of customers following the provision of on-specification material. So we'll try to keep everyone updated around that as we learn more, but we're not in a position to put a timeline on it at the moment. But what I would say is that we have plans very carefully around the working capital requirements for the data to ensure that we can navigate the period of qualification.

Okay, thanks.

Thanks, Mark.

Thank you. Once again, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question today comes from Peter Cormendy from Shore and Partners. Please go ahead.

Yeah, thanks for taking my question. It might be a question for Steve, and just on financing. Steve, I appreciate you've got a lot of balls in the air at the moment, what with convertible notes, DOE loans, DFC loans, and DOE grants as well, which is currently being negotiated. But at the heart of it all, can you give us a feel for how hard you're prepared to push the balance sheet here?

Yeah, look, I think it's a reasonable question, Peter. Thanks for that. I think the key that we're focused on really is making opportunities available to us across a range of different sources. And obviously with our position at Galama and the focus on ex-China sources of supply, there's a strong focus from the US government on supporting that. So, you know, we continue to basically explore these opportunities, but at the same time, as you say, we've got to balance that out against the balance sheet position and what that does. I would say, obviously, that, you know, commercial bank debt and government debt is very different. Government sort of debt has got different terms and conditions, which are generally more acceptable, if you like, than commercial bank debt, particularly for a company of our maturity. So we sort of weigh all that up against the balance sheet.

I think the other thing to say there, Peter, is that, you know, it just depends on how market conditions evolve and how quickly that both, you know, Belama sustainability from a cash flow perspective evolves and how quickly we want to or are able to progress phase three given customer requirements. So there... As you said at the start of the question, there are a lot of balls in the air and it's difficult to give a sort of a concrete answer at the moment given the uncertainty around some of the market conditions. But generation of the options has been really positive and the criticality of government funding, noting our importance to supply chain capability is something that we're pretty proud of.

Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Dim from UBS. Please go ahead.

Thanks, guys. Thanks for the call. Just two quick questions. So one on Vidalia, noted on CapEx cost increase. Could you just explain or maybe go into detail on the OpEx estimate increase as well? Like what's driving that? please, and I'll come back with the second.

Yeah, so, I mean, the OPEX, obviously we did the estimate on OPEX back at the time of the DFS, and we have to move through recruitment of labour and putting various supply contracts in place, and there's been an escalation in both of those areas and some resultant... local and state tax increases around those areas as well. And I think with the supply contract, things like reagents in particular, prices for those had skyrocketed over the last two years. I think the team has done a very good job at trying to cap that exposure to higher prices and We certainly have a view that there's a normalization underway, but it has impacted the view of OPEX at this point in time.

Yeah, cool. Yeah, that's clear. And then secondly, just on the emerging opportunities, ex-China, so GraphX, Westwater, I'm not too sure what detail you've given in terms of near-term volumes, but I'm just wondering maybe if you could talk around how it could potentially impact your percent fines sales into China as a result. So do you expect them getting more of your fines mix, which means that you could potentially sell a higher course mix into China? Am I thinking about that correctly? I guess could have been a higher realized price for what's going into China, I guess.

Yeah, I think probably the more important part of the answer to that question, Jim, is that it only takes a few of these operations to come to market to materially shift the direction of sales volumes from China to ex-China off-takers. And one of the things that's really important to understand with the ExChina stuff is that the security of supply and the auditability of where supply is coming from is really important to ExChina anode material buyers. Obviously, Balama material has been in the supply chain already. We have significant volume that we can allocate to ExChina customers and we are setting up our contractual arrangements around that so that those players who achieve project progress most quickly have the best access to options on volume. So you can see a situation where all fines volume is either going to Vidalia or to ExChina players within a short number of years. Now, what we do with the balance, we have other course-like customers outside of China, typically the ex-China markets for course-like command higher prices than the China domestic market. And ultimately, we see that market behaviour of Chinese buyers will be brought more into line with international norms as the... the balance of material moves away from China markets, from our perspective. So we're really excited about how that opportunity is shaping up because the size of projects being contemplated is significant. And as I said during the presentation, we are at this stage the only major supplier and certainly the only supplier supplier that has material that's already been in the supply chain as a proven quality.

Yeah, that's clear. I might sneak one more then, if that's okay. Have you guided to volumes for 24 through to 26 and then beyond for the China or ex-China, or how much these off-takes could potentially be... how much they could potentially be for your production?

Yeah, I think we've got a slide in the back of the deck where we show a bit of a split between integrated consumption for Vidalia, ex-China, potential consumption and then sales to China. I think the most important thing to understand there is that the growth in potential capacity ex-China could well exceed what we can supply. So, yeah, just have a look at that wheel split in the back of today's deck.

Okay, cool. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

Thanks, Tim.

Thank you. As there are no further questions at this time, I'll now hand back to Mr. Werner for any closing remarks.

Thanks very much. We appreciate the attendance on the call today. And as always, if there are further questions, we are more than happy to address them through Viren and the investor relations team. Thank you very much.

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.