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2/13/2025
Good morning and welcome to Unibail Rodamco Westfield's Food Year Results presentation. 2024 was a year of strong operating performance across all activities. Our shopping centers delivered increased footfall and higher tenant sales. Group occupancy is now at its highest level since 2017 thanks to strong leasing activity with a focus on high-value long-term deals. Convention and exhibition delivered record results as our V-Paris venues hosted events and operational hubs for the Paris Olympic and Paralympics Games. OPC's NRI grew by double digits thanks to the full leasing of the Trinity Tower and the successful delivery of Lightwell, both in Paris La Défense. And at Westfield Rise, our retail media agency, we achieved the 2024 net margin target of 75 million euros set in 2022. Since the start of 2024, we have successfully completed or secured 1.6 billion euros of disposals at book value, delivering on the discussions that we referenced at the height here. And we have been active on the investment front, acquiring €0.6 billion of GB partner stakes at attractive terms. We also face the challenges related to our Westfield Hamburg-Ubersee Quartier project, and I am pleased to say it will open on April 8th. I will provide an update on this later in this presentation. As a result of this strong performance, we achieved full-year earnings above guidance and are proposing a 40% increase in our cash distribution to €3.50 per share. This strong performance is reflected in our financial KPIs. Group like for like NRI is up 6.7% year-on-year, demonstrating our excellent operations. Our cost of debt remains low at 2% thanks to our aging program and access to financing at attractive conditions. Our loan to value ratio benefited from our active daily rating program and is at its lowest level since 2019 with another 100 basis point reduction in 2024. As a result, our net debt to EBITDA ratio stands at 8.7 times, down from 9.3 times at the end of 2023. Now let's take a closer look at the excellent operational performance of our shopping centers. Over the past four years, we have been proactive in our leasing strategy, upgrading our retail offer and upsizing our key retailers. This curated offer continued to drive footfall in 2024, which was up 2.6% from 2023, well ahead of the market. This has resulted in tenant sales growing by 4.5%, ahead of blended national sales indices and outperforming core inflation. In 2024, the strong appeal of our assets resulted in a high volume of GLA and MGR signed and also achieved a very healthy MGR uplift of 6.5% on top of indexation. For long-term deals, which represented 80% of our total leasing activity, we achieved an impressive uplift of 11.1%. Going forward, our continued sales performance, the appeal of our assets, and the commercial tension we have created will allow us to capture additional reversionary potential. Moving now to WasteFeedWise. Our work to consistently enhance the quality of our assets and create an exceptional customer journey attracts a massive and highly engaged audience that we are monetizing through our retail media agency. And I'm happy to say that we have achieved the 75 million euro net margin target set in 2022, delivering a 41% increase in Europe versus last year. This includes an 8% uptick in physical brand activations, which drive revenue and contribute to the dynamic customer experience at our centers. When we launched the agency, first for our industry, we highlighted the significant potential to increase average revenue per visit in line with players such as arenas and transportation networks. This figure is up 38% year on year and has more than doubled since 2021. We see continued significant growth potential and we'll share more details on our plans for Westfield Rise at our upcoming investor day. The retail real estate investment market continued to be challenging in 2024, with volumes down 12% in continental Europe and 13% in the US from what was already low activity in 2023. Against this backdrop, URW completed or secured an impressive €1.6 billion of disposals at book value. This was made up of non-core retail assets, minority stakes in two flagship centers, and two office deals. These transactions, mostly delivered in the second half of the year, demonstrate the group's focus and preparation, which enable us to execute at attractive values across asset classes and geographies, even in challenging market conditions. We also apply the same level of discipline and agility to our asset management. In 2024, we have invested €0.6 billion of stakes from GV Partners. In each case, we have done this at attractive terms. At Westfield Montgomery in Maryland and Saint-Houm-Ursinov in Warsaw, we acquired the full ownership of both assets from our GV partners as we see clear opportunities to increase revenues and create additional value through mixed-use densification and retail extensions. In December, we acquired an additional 39% of our URW Germany joint venture, which was executed in URW shares and takes our total ownership to almost 90%. This deal improved our pro forma loan-to-value, increased our cash position, and will allow us to accelerate the transformation of our portfolio in Germany. Going forward, we will continue to make similar investments where we see significant potential for value creation. Before I tackle Westfield Hamburg, let me update you on our 2024 pipeline deliveries. This includes our 29,000 square meter redevelopment of Westfield Knit in Paris La Défense that was 97% let at opening and has already seen a 29% increase in footfall. The successful conversion of a former department store box at Westfield Old Orchard in Chicago that is 95% let, including a flagship Zara store. and the delivery of Lightwell, our office redevelopment project in Paris la Défense, which is 80% late, with active discussions on the remaining space. These deliveries have achieved a 6% blended yield on cost for a blended appraiser's exit cap rate just over 5%. Our number one priority is the delivery of Westfinal Hamburg Iberia's equator. As I have said previously, the project's delays and cost overruns are totally unacceptable. We have now completed the independent investigation we launched in July, which covered a root cause analysis to identify the main drivers of the overruns and a systematic review of project processes, governance, and decision making. The findings presented to the supervisory board confirm what we shared with you at that time. At inception, the project and corporate development teams failed to fully understand its complexity. This led to incorrect and inadequate assumptions in terms of budget, timeline, and project setup. This resulted in the serious project mismanagement already reported, particularly in relation to insufficient design detail and construction strategy. On top of this, the investigation noted the significant impact to cost, procurement, and labor of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. The investigation also highlighted poor risk assessment throughout the project's lifespan and a lack of independent scrutiny. It did not uncover any evidence of fraudulent activity. The mistakes we made on this project cannot be repeated. In addition to the changes we already announced in executive leadership, oversight and construction management, we have conducted a thorough systematic review of all active projects. I can confirm that the issues faced are contained to this project. We have also taken significant steps to reshape our approach to development at the project and group level. We have reviewed and strengthened development oversight and increased the feasibility, technical and risk assessment requirements from the earlier stages of the Investment Committee approval process through to completion. We have reinforced project monitoring at corporate level with clear segregation of duties and increased financial controls that also now leverage more comprehensive technical KPIs. We are revising the company's internal charters to reinforce management board and supervisory board oversight. And finally, the group will not take direct construction risk for development projects and major works going forward. Looking towards delivery, we have made significant commissioning progress with the support of local authorities and are very excited for the retail opening of the project on April 8. The total investment cost now stands at 2.45 billion euros, an increase of 190 million, mainly due to additional construction costs and contingencies. On April 8th, we will bring to Hamburg a destination unlike anything the city has seen before. Our retailers are committed to Westfield Hamburg Übersee Quartier and share our ambition for its future. The project's residential buildings are open, with occupants currently moving in, and we have completed delivery of the cruise terminal to Hamburg Port Authority. Offices are 64% predate with active discussions on a large portion of the remaining GLA, with the first handover in Q2 2025 to Shell Germany. And the project's hotels will also begin handover in Q2. This slide shows how since 2021, URW has successfully navigated and overcome multiple challenges related to its operations, balance sheet and US exposure. At the end of 2020, COVID's impact to occupancy, rents and asset values seemed to have answered long asked questions about the long-term viability of retail real estate and the future of physical retail. These pressures, combined with our high level of debt, increase concerns about our balance sheet. Today, URW stands in a position of strength. Our operating performance has demonstrated the power and appeal of our assets, with physical retail thriving in flagship destinations, growing traffic and sales, and positive rent evolution. This has contributed to the stabilization of valuations seen in 2024. Throughout this challenging period, we have successfully maintained access to bond and credit markets at competitive conditions, ensuring URW's financial flexibility. Through the disposal of more than 6 billion euros in assets despite market conditions, we have successfully reduced our loan-to-value ratio by 400 basis points, reshaped our portfolio, and significantly strengthened our balance sheet. When it comes to the US, we have divested 17 non-core assets for 3.3 billion US dollars at 100%, at a time when the market was virtually closed. These deals represent over a quarter of what enclosed more transactions in the US over that time. Now, 12 out of our 15 U.S. shopping centers are A-rated, which represents 97% of our U.S. GMV, an unmatched collection of flagship destinations in some of the best markets in the country. We have also delivered strong operating performance with occupancy at record levels along with higher footfall sales and rents. And we have completely restructured our management platform in the country, cutting costs by over 50%. Over the past four years, we have reshaped our portfolio through disposals, made significant leveraging progress, and hence our operations, and transformed the group's risk profile. Having achieved this transformation, we have taken the strategic decision to retain our high-performing US flagship assets, which will deliver further growth and value creation. Our delivery engine is not yet complete. We have made significant progress and are on a strong trajectory. We will continue to execute through retained earnings, disciplined capital allocation, and non-core disposals. Now onto our Better Places Sustainability Plan. Thanks to our continued progress in 2024, we have achieved a 42% reduction in carbon emissions from Scopes 1, 2, and 3, and a 37% reduction in our energy intensity. We have exceeded our initial 2024 target for the launch of our Better Places certification, with 14 assets certified in Europe versus 10 planned. and we have expanded the Sustainable Retail Index to include the health and beauty category, achieving our 2024 target of 70% coverage of eligible revenues in Europe. I am pleased to announce as well that we have extended the SRI to the US, and globally, 86% of our covered MGR is already engaged in sustainability initiatives, with almost 53% being active, advanced, or leader. We are also engaging with older landlords to promote the adoption of the SRI as an industry standard. URW is increasingly recognized for its ESG leadership. Last week, we were named in the CDPA list for the 7th year in a row, and Corporate Knights, a leading sustainability research organization, announced during Davos that we moved from the 70th position to the 24th position in their Global 100 ranking. Now, let me hand it over to Fabrice to go into more detail on our strong financial performance before coming back to provide information on our proposed distribution and 2025 guidance.
Thank you Jean-Marie and good morning everyone. In 2024, we once again saw a strong operating dynamic. Tenant sales increased plus 4.5% compared to 2023, supported by a footfall increase of plus 2.6%. Leasing activity remained strong, up 4.8% in volume. And as Jean-Marie has already said, vacancy fell to the lowest level since 2017 before the acquisition of Westfield. And we saw a 14% increase in commercial partnership revenue driven by the continued success of Westfield Rise in Europe. 2024 was also a very successful year for our convention exhibition business, which benefited from the Paris Olympics and Paralympics. Lastly, we completed our secure disposals for a total net debt reduction of €1.6 billion, contributing to an improvement in our financial ratios. Recurring EPS reached €10.56 per share, up 4.1% compared to 2023. Adjusted recurring earnings, which include the impact of hybrid bonds, totaled 9.85 euros per share, a 2.4% increase on 2023. This is slightly above the guidance we provided a year ago, thanks to a stronger betting performance, better than anticipated cost of debt, and the timing of 2024 disposals, which more than offset the NRI effect of the delayed opening of Westfield Humboldt. we saw strong EBDA growth of plus 6.9% in total and 7% on a like-for-like basis. And this is an acceleration compared to the 5.8% growth achieved in H1. The increase in EREPs was mainly driven by shopping centers and offices' ROI performance, which contributed 86 cents to EREPs growth in 2024. CNU contributed 31 cents at group share, benefiting from strong commercial activity, favorable seasonality, and of course, the Paris Olympics. This was partly offset by the fuller impact of increased hybrid costs, accounting for minus 19 cents following the exchange offer completed in June 2023. Disposals completed in 2023 and 2024 had a minus 47 cents impact on NRI. This corresponds to 2 billion euros of sales completed in 2023 and 2024, although the impact of 2024 disposals on this year's EREPs was limited as they were mainly completed in H2. Financial and general expenses had a minus 7 cents contribution due to a slightly higher cost of debt, partly offset by a decrease in general expenses. Looking now more closely at URW's retail NRI performance. On the like for like basis, retail NRI increased by 5.8% year on year, including plus 2.1% from the accession at group level and plus 3% in continental Europe. The contribution from rent was plus 2.4% driven by our strong operating performance, the rental uplift in 2023 and 2024, as well as a reduction in vacancy, most significantly in the UK and in the US. We also had a positive contribution of just under 1% from variable income presented in the other category, driven by Westfield Rise revenues in Europe. This other category also includes lower service charges in the UK. We benefited from a positive doubtful debtors contribution of plus 0.7% thanks to higher collection rate and lower bankruptcies, which I will cover on the next slide. Sales-based rents were done slightly at group level, and this was mainly due to the crystallization of SBR into minimum guaranteed rents in the US and the comparative effect of higher SBR settlements in 2023 from 2022 sales. This was partly compensated by SBR in continental Europe, which were up thanks to strong sales performance. Bankruptcies decreased in 2024 with 246 units affected representing 2.5% of the group's retail units. This compares to 355 units affected representing 3.5% in 2023 and 448 units representing 3.3% in 2019. This improvement reflects the strong sales performance in our centers as well as the overall improvement in tenant credit quality following the departure of weaker tenants during COVID. For 69% of units affected by bankruptcies, the tenant was either replaced or was still in place, limiting the impact on the group vacancy. In parallel, rent collection for retail in 2024 stood at 97%, in line with pre-COVID levels, while we continued to collect 2023 rents, meaning that we have now reached 98% for last year. Moving to now, vacancy at a group and regional level. Group vacancy as of December 2024 stood at 4.8%, down from 5.4% at full year 2023 and 5.5% at the end of H1 2024. This is the lowest vacancy level since 2017. In continental Europe, overall vacancy was 3.2% and changed from 2023. Vacancy in the UK is down from 6.9% at trend 2023 to 5.8% today. The vacancy rate has continued to decrease at Westfield Stratford, landing below 3%. Westfield London vacancy is now below 9% and is expected to reduce further thanks to leasing efforts and repurposing of excess space added by the 2018 extension. The former House of Fraser department store is being currently transformed into offices that will be delivered at your end, while the former Debenhams site has been converted into new retail units that are now 70% leased. US flagship vacancies stood at 6.2%, down from 7.3% in 2023, and below pre-COVID levels of 7.7%, and its 2020 peak of 12.5%, showing the recovery in the US and the appeal of our prime assets for retailers. Moving now to leasing, we signed MGR of 465 million euros in 2024 at 4.8% compared to 2023 and plus 6.4% for long-term deals. There was a further acceleration in the pace of leasing in H2 with 247 million euros of MGR signed at plus 7.8% increase on the second half of 2023. The proportion of long-term leases continue to increase, reaching 80% in full year 2024. MGR sign in continental Europe was up 14.7%, showing a positive dynamic as retailers focus on prime locations and our assets continue to gain market share. In the US, the overall amount of MGR sign was done as we have lower vacancy to address and we can shift our focus to higher value-added deals. As an illustration, the average rent per square foot for long-term deals in the US increased by 5.7% compared to 2023. Retailers' appetite is also visible in the rental uplift achieved, which continued to be healthy across all geographies at plus 6.5% on top of indexation in 2024. This was over 11% on long-term deals over 36 months. In continental Europe, the uplift stood at 3.5% on top of indexation with 5.7% on long-term deals. Before indexation, the uplift was at plus 6.1% on all deals and plus 8.3% on long-term deals. In the UK, the uplift stood at 9% and benefited from the relating NH1 2024 of units impacted by COVID. The uplift in the US was at 11.7% on all deals, and it was 30% on long-term deals when compared with MGR in place, and 22% compared to MGR plus SBR. Moving now to occupancy cost ratio, which stands at 15.4% in contemporary Europe. In the UK, OCR decreased to 16.7% thanks to lower UK business rents since April 2023, as well as an increase in tenant sales and rent adjustments. In the US, OCR for flagship assets excluding department stores decreased to 12.6% from 12.9% in 2023. And as we have demonstrated previously, the volume of activity generated by omnichannel retailers through in-store initiatives like click and collect and product return goes well beyond the sales figure that are used to compute the OCR. The strong performance of our retail assets in 2024 was mirrored by our offices portfolio with NRI of 102 million euros up 22.3% year on year. This increase was mainly thanks to the full impact of the letting of Trinity, the performance of the Pullman Montparnasse Hotel, and the successful delivery of Flightwell. This was partly offset by the disposal of the Getty offices in Paris. On a like for like basis, offices NRI was up 14.4% on a group basis, including 18% in France. Following a successful letting, Trinity Tower is now a mature asset and we have signed an agreement to sell an 80% stake to Norges while continuing to provide asset and property management services. This represents a debt reduction of circa 350 million euros for 80% of the tower. And this is the largest transaction in the Paris office market of the last 12 months, demonstrating the quality and appeal of our assets. We have also acquired the Jacques Ibert office building in Levallois for 33 million euros, which represents another retrofit opportunity. Moving now to convention exhibition activity. 2024 net operating income for CNI amounted to 219 million euros, up 66% compared to 2023, as we benefited from the impact of the Paris Olympics and Paralympics, especially in H2O. The Olympics contribution to CNI in 2024 was 54 million euros at 100%. Restated for the three annual shows and excluding the Olympics impact, lack for lack NOI was still 29.5% above 2023 and 2.4% above 2022. This like for like performance reflects the appeal of our venues, which is confirmed by our 2025 pre-bookings with 91% of expected rental income signed or pre-booked. Our 2024 performance was also supported by a 10% decrease in our general expenses as part of wider cost savings initiatives launched in 2024. This is on top of the 5% decrease achieved in full year 2023. Compared to 2019, we have reduced our administrative expenses by 26%, even when considering the high inflation experienced over the period. Efficiency gains include headcount reductions, supported by optimization in processes and IT tools, and we will maintain this discipline in 2025. In parallel, we also reduced our capex on standing assets and other developments by circa 120 million in 2024 compared to 2023 to partly offset the Westfield Hamburg tick increase. Moving now to our portfolio values, which stand at 49.7 billion euros, a 0.3% increase compared to last year. CapEx and acquisitions had a positive impact of 1.8 billion euros, partly offset by disposals with a negative effect of 0.9 billion. There was a positive FX impact of 0.7 billion euros from the strengthening of both the dollar and the sterling against the euro. Lack-for-lack portfolio revaluation saw a decrease of €0.2 billion, corresponding to minus 0.5% from offices and services, while retail lack-for-lack revaluation was slightly positive at plus 0.2%. Non-lack-for-lack revaluation was negative €1.3 billion, mainly coming from the Westfield Hamburg revaluation. Net range statement value stood at €143.80 per share at the end of 2024, a minus 2% decrease compared to year-end 2023. This evolution is mainly due to the negative non-like-for-like valuation offset by return earnings. Net range statement value also takes into account the return of shoulder distributions with the €2.50 per share paid in May 2024. As mentioned, like-for-like revaluation for retail was plus 0.2% in 2024, made up of a rental impact of plus 1.4%, partly offset by a yield impact of minus 1.3%. This is an improvement compared to H1 valuations, which were slightly negative at minus 0.3%. In continental Europe, this is the first full-year positive revaluation in six years at plus 1.3%. In the UK, this is the second year in a row with positive revaluation at plus 4.9%, which is an acceleration compared to plus 0.6% last year. The main driver of these positive relations was a rental growth generated by strong operating performance in 2024. The decrease in the US LAC4LAC revaluation in 2024 was minus 4.3%, split between minus 1.3% rent impact and minus 3.1% yield impact. For flagship assets, excluding CBD, the revaluation was minus 3.4%, mainly due to the yield impact of minus 3.1%. Let's look more closely now at retail LAC4LAC valuation in contemporary Europe, split between yield and rent impact since 2020. Valuations were significantly impacted by a negative yield effect in 2020 from COVID as a result of a high risk premium and in 2022 and 2023 by the significant and fast rates increase that took place in 2022. In 2024, the yield impact is still negative, but less than in previous years as we start seeing a stabilization in rates. Since 2021, this impact has been partly mitigated by rental growth coming from the COVID recovery, our capacity to pass on indexation, and a strong operating performance. Going forward, we expect valuations to be driven by increasing rents as we have seen in the past. The net insured yield of continental European assets stands at 5.4%, stable compared to 2023, even factoring in the slight increase in asset values on a like-for-like basis. The net potential yield assuming the assets are fully laid is 5.6%. The net initial yield of UK assets is at 6.3% and the net potential yield at 7%. It is flat compared to 2023 despite the increase in like for like valuations of UK assets. In the US, the net initial yield for flagship assets excluding CBD was 5.1%, a 30 basis points increase compared to 2023. This yield is explained by the cash flow growth potential of these assets. The annual growth of NRI assumed by appraisers was at plus 4.2% per year over 10 years, including circa 3% coming from the contractual rent and CAM escalation. The net stabilized yields for US flagship assets after three years stands at 5.7% as it captures the growth potential embedded in these assets. Now on to development. The total investment costs of the growth pipeline increased to 3.5 billion euros, mainly as a result of the 0.8 billion euro increase in the tick of Westfield Hamburg and 0.5 billion of new projects. As mentioned by Jean-Marie, the retail component of Westfield Hamburg will open on the 8th of April with pre-letting at 94%. We also added seven new projects for a total investment cost of €0.5 billion and a targeted yield on cost above 7%. Four projects representing a total tick of €0.3 billion were delivered in 2024 and these assets are 88% let to date. After 2.6 billion euros of deliveries during 2025, the URW development pipeline is expected to reduce to 0.9 billion euros by the end of 2025, comprising of 0.4 billion of committee projects and 0.5 billion of control projects. Moving on to the evolution of net debt and financial ratios, which reflects our significant deleveraging progress and operational improvement over the last four years. Since 2020, IFRS net debt has decreased by 4.2 billion euros to 20 billion euros. Proforma for disposal secured in 2024, it stands at 19.5 billion euros, down 0.5 billion compared to last year. IFRS LTV ratio stands at 40.8% on a proforma basis, marking an improvement of one percentage point on last year. This has been achieved thanks to the disposal secured, the stabilization of our European retail values in 2024, partly offset by the impact of cap expense, as well as the reinstatement of a distribution. Overall, our LTV decreased by 400 basis points since 2020, reaching its lowest level since COVID, despite a 12% decline in values over the period. The balance sheet was also reinforced in 2024 by the issuance of 3.25 million URW shares in exchange for an additional 39% stake in URW Germany. This resulted in an improvement of the APRA LTV from 54.4% to 53.8% between 2023 and 2024, and to 53.1% pro forma for disposal secured, representing a 130 basis points improvement compared to last year. Moving now to net debt to EBITDA ratio. It's at 8.7 times on an IFRS basis in 2024 compared to 9.3 times in 2023 and 9.9 times in 2019. This improvement is due to the net debt reduction achieved and strong operating performance with a lack for lack EBITDA up 7% in 2024 compared to 2023. This is the lowest net debt to EBITDA ratio since the Westfield acquisition, demonstrating the group's leveraging achievements to date. Interest coverage ratio extremely hybrid was stable at 4.2 times on an IFRS basis. Talking now about our cost of debt, we stood at 2% in 2024, a slight increase compared to last year, which was 1.8%. This increase is due to the higher cost of new financing rates in 2023 and 2024 and the lower emulation on the group's cash position following the decrease in short-term rates of more than 100 basis points in 2024. The group has significant hedging instruments in place covering its anticipated debt in 2025 and 2026. The cost of debt in 2025 will benefit from these hedges, but it's expected to increase slightly as a result of lower cash remuneration with a further reduction in short-term rates anticipated in 2025. In total, the group has 13.9 billion euros in cash and available credit facilities. This includes 5.3 billion euros of cash on hand. In 2024, the group raised 4.7 billion euros of new debt, out of which 89% was sustainable or green financing. This includes 1.3 billion euros of green bond at an average 3.7% coupon, a 45 basis points improvement compared to last year's bond issuance. It was four times oversubscribed, demonstrating investors' appetite for URW credit. The group's average debt maturity stands at 7.3 years at the end of December. And thanks to this liquidity, we have the resources to cover all debt maturities for at least the next three years, even in a scenario where we raise no new financing and make no further disposals. And thanks to this strong liquidity, together with our strong operating performance and significant disposal progress, rating agencies confirmed the group's rating in H2 2024. Building on the balance sheet improvements achieved to date, we intend to continue the leveraging through return profit, disciplined capital allocation, and non-core disposals. On this slide, we have provided an illustration of our deleveraging past over the 2025-2026 period. This takes into consideration assumptions over the next two years of recurring profit based on 2025 guidance, a distribution of 3.50 euros per share in 2025 and 2026, reduced capex needs beyond the delivery of Westfield Humboldt, and disposals in line with our historical achievements at an average of 1 billion euros per year. IFRS LTV, excluding hybrid, will track well below 40% by 2026. We are also showing a sensitivity analysis of our LTV based on different valuation assumptions. As mentioned earlier, after six years of decrease, values for prime retail assets in Europe started to increase in 2024. If our European retail assets were to be revalued based on the estimated cash flow growth over the next two years, everything else being equal, this would equate to a GMV increase of around 4%. Such an increase over this two-year time horizon would take down our IFRS LTV, including hybrids, from 42% to circa 40%. Our operational performance and strong liquidity position give us time to continue our gradual deleveraging in an orderly manner while also increasing our distribution. That is all for me and now back to Jean-Marie for some closing remarks.
Thank you, Fabrice. Before we start the Q&A, let me take you through our proposed cash distribution and our guidance for 2025. With our strong 2024 results, we are proposing a cash distribution of €3.50 for approval at the AGM. This represents a 40% increase compared to last year and reflects our intention to increase the distribution according to our purling performance, the averaging progress, and the evolution of asset valuations. Moving now to our guidance, the group expects an underlying growth of at least 5% to drive our full-year 2025 adjusted recurring earnings per share in the range of €9.30 to €9.50. This growth is supported by strong retail operating performance, both in Europe and the US, increased viable income, including Westfield Rise, our continued focus on cost discipline, and the positive impact of 2024 and 2025 deliveries. Our guidance also reflects disposals. those completed in 2024, €0.6 billion already secured for 2025, one deal signed under conditions precedent for €0.3 billion, and active discussions on additional disposals. There is also a slight increase of the cost of debt and our guidance takes into account the one-off impact of the Olympics on convention and exhibition, and the 3.2 million URW staple shares issued in December 2024 for the acquisition of the URW Germany GV. As in previous years, this guidance assumes no major deterioration of the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Before we start the Q&A, I'm pleased to confirm the date of our upcoming investor day, which will be held here in Paris on May 14th, with a range of project visits also scheduled on the morning of the 15th. We look forward to sharing with you our strategy and growth plans. Now, Fabrice and I will be able to take your questions. Thank you.
This is the conference operator who will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press a star and one on their touchtone telephone. In the interest of time, we kindly ask to limit yourself to two questions only. For questions, please press a star and one at this time. The first question is from Florent Larossique-Vauvert, of Odo BHF. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Jean-Marie. Good morning, Fabrice. Thank you very much for this presentation. Maybe for my first question, I would go back to the slide 36, where you present your illustrative delivery trajectory for 2025-2026. As part of the distribution, you have taken the assumption of distribution of 3.50 euro per share for the year to come so do we have to take this assumption as maybe an outlook or do we have to wait for further increase of the distribution and in which assumptions and maybe my second question would be on the US portfolio so shall we expect that your targeted portfolio would be composed of the 12 assets as weighted. Thank you very much.
So maybe starting, thanks Florent and good morning to you. So to start with your first question on the dividend. So the chart on page 36 is just an illustration of the deleveraging path. And by the way, you see a sensitivity analysis of what would be the impact of 50 cents increase in terms of distribution on the LTV evolution. So you have that on page 36. Now, regarding the dividend going forward, first, as you've seen, we have increased it by 40% in 2024 compared to 2023. So this is in line with the announcement that we had made of a significant increase. And going forward, we intend to continue to increase this distribution, and the magnitude of which will depend on three factors that I've mentioned. A, the operating performance, B, the deleveraging progress, and C, the valuation evolutions.
When it comes to the US portfolio, we have today 15 assets, out of which 12 are graded A. And somehow you can expect that our portfolio would be in that range of 12 to 10 assets that are really, really core to us going forward. But it doesn't mean that we'll go down to 10 in a very short time frame.
And just to complete my answer, obviously, when it comes to the long-term perspective on the dividend, this will be alluded to and mentioned and tackled during the investor days in May of this year.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Veronique Myrtens of Kampen. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for taking my questions. For me also two questions. So first of all, looking at the guidance, you also mentioned quite an impact on net financial expenses. Could you maybe elaborate on what's your, what do you take to account for your net interest income? And also what the impact of capitalized interest is, especially since your development pipeline is drying up quite significantly at the end of the year. And then my second question is when I look at your like-for-like evaluations, I noticed that especially the impact, the rent impact is relatively low versus the solid results that you print on the rental side. So if you could elaborate why it's a bit lower. Thank you.
So let me start with the first question on the underlying growth of 5%. And so to come back to this question, in fact, in the 5% underlying growth, you have four main elements. One is the lag-for-lag performance that will continue to be sustained in 2025. The second is the impact of the deliveries that will take place in 2025. It's significant in terms of deliveries. The third element, which is positive, is a reduction in taxes, which were increased in 2024 due in particular to the services activity, which are taxable activities coming from the Paris Olympics. And to come back to your question, effectively, as part of this 5% underlying growth, there's a negative impact of financial expenses, which effectively is made of two elements. One is the increase in the average cost of debt. In particular, as you've seen, we have 5 billion euros of cash remuneration. And so depending on the assumption that you make in terms of remuneration of this cash, this can be a significant amount. So a 1% decrease in the three months arrival would have an impact of 50 million. So I'm not saying that it is what we have, but... All in all, you see the magnitude of this dimension when it comes to the financial expenses. So in total, we've seen a gradual increase of financial expenses. It was 1.8% in 2023, 1.9% in H1 2024. It's 2% at the end of 2024. So you might expect a further increase of 20 to 30 basis points for the full year impact. And on top of that, there's effectively the impact of less capitalization of financial expenses. And a way for you to assess that would be the level of capex corresponding to the assets that are delivered. So as you've seen on Westfield Hamburg, we are quite transparent in terms of cost spent on this project. And you apply the average cost of data on this type of project. value of assets of capex that won't be capitalized anymore. And so you see that you have an impact that can be derived from this computation.
Okay, thank you. And could you maybe elaborate what is your assumption in terms of cash remuneration that's included in your guidance then?
We have a cash remuneration which is based on the three months arrival. So basically you see that the three months arrival is expected to decline. We have a forward which is at something like 2.2%. So I'll let you elaborate on the overall cash remuneration. And in the U.S., it's based on the short-term rates in the U.S., which is somewhat higher than what we have in Europe.
Okay, thank you. And my question on the life-like revaluations, why the rent impact looks relatively low.
I mean, when you look at content Europe, it was plus 2.4%. So basically that's still a significant growth. It is just made of the differential between what was anticipated by appraisers the year before and this one. So part of the good news were anticipated and part were not anticipated. And this is why you have this increase between 2023 and 2025. in terms of valuation. But overall, I would say the trend is positive. And let's not forget that this is somewhat slightly impacted by a low indexation because we benefited still from a 3% indexation in 2024. And we expect this to decrease in 2025 to a lower level of indexation of around 2%.
Very clear. Thank you. The next question is from Valerie Jacob of Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. My first question is on your credit rating. You've made some good progress on delivering, as you showed on the slide. And I was wondering, you also have some disposal baked in the guidance. If you could share some thoughts on your discussion with the credit agencies and if there is any chance of an upgrade later this year or next year if you continue on this path. And my second question is on the U.S. If you could elaborate on your strategy, I think in the past you've said that you could be filling shares in some assets. Is it still the case, or do you prefer to focus on some core assets and sell a few non-core assets? Thank you.
So starting with the rating agencies, and it's hard for me to comment on what they expect to do. I think still there's one thing important to mention is that rating agencies expect us to sell around 1 billion euros of assets per year. So this is what we've achieved in 2024. Technically, we've sold 1 billion. But I think on top of that, the interesting element is that we have already secured 0.6 billion of disposals signed in 2024, but not completed in 2024. And that will be completed in 2025. We have signed also another disposal, which is under condition precedent for another 0.3 billion euros. So here we have put that in our guidance because if the conditions precedent are met, we are forced to sell this asset. which we'll be happy to, but there's still a level of uncertainty, so that's why we have not included that into the secure asset. But all in all, it's true that when you combine the two, this has 0.9 billion euros of impact in terms of disposals, which shows that effectively, compared to the 1 billion euro target of rating agencies, a lot will have been secure since the very beginning of the year. I think it's hard to elaborate on what they will say. Still, there's something to mention is that, as you remember, S&P on the 14th of January issued a statement or report explaining that these disposals will comfort the rating of the company. And so we'll meet with them in the course of March and see effectively how they take that into consideration and the potential additional disposals that we may complete in the course of 2025, which effectively here as a consequence will impact our 2025 guidance as you've seen through effectively these evolutions and this decrease of the air reps between 2024 and 2025.
When it comes to the U.S., obviously, during the investor day, we'll share way more on the strategy and what is the path forward for the U.S. portfolio that we have decided to keep. We have, obviously, 97% today of our gross market value in the U.S. is made of A-rated assets. That is the core of what we own, so we should be able to maybe reshape a little bit that at the edge. If you look at our control pipeline, we integrated a densification project on the Garden State Plaza in New Jersey for the phase one of the densification project, which is a RISI project that we do with a developer and a partner. You may have seen as well that we invested and bought 50% remaining stake in Montgomery, in Maryland, where we want to, where we see value potential for retenanting, but as well, you know, densification projects, which is already under discussion with the local authorities on the zoning. So that's, you know, the strategy would be on this asset tree get to maximize the value of what we own and extract even more value from the rent tension that we see and that we've been able to recreate over the last four years in these core assets. But we'll share way more during the investor day around what's the path for growth and development for that portfolio.
Thank you. The next question is from Frederic Renard of Kepler. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Just coming back on the question of Valérie, so you mentioned that rating agencies taking into account like 1 billion of asset disposal, but I guess it was also mostly linked to the negative portfolio valuation, which actually is not the case anymore. So I guess my question is, what is your view on deleveraging after 25 disposals? Valuation is edging up, you don't have a big pipeline anymore, and operation rate is going very strong. Isn't this year marking the end of your deleveraging road that you embarked when you became CEO in 2020? And the second question would be, how has your appetite changed regarding large-scale greenfield project going forward? Thank you.
So we are, as we said, when you look at where we were in 21 and where we are today with the level of leveraging that we have achieved, the 400 basis points, lower loan-to-value that we achieved, the operational performance of our assets and how we have rebuilt the commercial tension and the visibility it gives us in terms of gross potential. We focused on really now making sure that we are not distracted by non-core activities and that we really focus on how do we extract the value from what we own. So we are, according again to the valuation evolution, some of the disposals that we are doing now and the return on earnings and the capital allocation. We'll see what is the right level of additional disposals that we need to do after 2025. One thing is for sure is that we'll continue to work out just making sure that we have fully streamlined our portfolio of assets and activities, such as we are really focused on where the value is and that we can then move the needle in terms of value creation.
And when it comes to the level of LTV, there's still some room and some headroom to improve the LTV. We've made a significant progress since 2020. And as Jean-Marie mentioned, we've reduced our LTV by 400 basis points. But when you look still at the IFRS LTV, including hybrid, we stand at 44.7%. And so there's still some room to take it to a level that would be closer to 40%. And as you've seen on the slide on the leveraging, in a sense, you achieve that over time and over this two-year time horizon with €1 billion of disposals and potentially a revaluation of the asset. So basically, these will be the topics that will be discussed with the rating agencies, this €1 billion of disposals, in fact. We'll continue, as Jean-Marie mentioned, to ensure that we trim and improve our portfolio overall quality by selling non-core assets, which are a distraction. And on top of that, of course, the discussion with the rating agencies will be around our headroom, this headroom that this gives us in terms of distribution. Hence, by the way, the fact that we've been able to increase our distribution by 40% this year. And we intend, as I said, to continue increasing this distribution over time.
Next question is from Paul May of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Just a couple of questions from me. I'm just wondering on your leverage side, I think you mainly focus in the report around net debt to EBITDA and obviously a lot of comments around LTV on the call. I just wonder what do you see as an appropriate level for net debt to EBITDA? Obviously, you're higher than U.S. peers, probably higher than a couple of your European peers as well. I'm just wondering what the focus is on managing that moving forwards and And then following on from other questions, I suppose the next stage of evolution is, do you see more opportunities to equity fund acquisitions like you did with CPP IB and the JV in Germany? I mean, are there more JV assets you would like to acquire or assets in the market? Because just looking at the disposals, they seem to have been more punitive to earnings than beneficial for leverage. And just wonder what your focus is there in your thought process. It'd be nice to get back to growth rather than facing decline. on the earnings side.
Thank you. Maybe I'll start with the net debt over BDA. And as you've seen, this was a tremendous achievement to be at the lowest level of net debt over BDA since the Westfield acquisition at 8.7 times. So when you include the hybrid, this takes us to 9.5 times. And our target is more 9 times, which is the historical level at which we've been for this ratio. Historically, by the way, this nine times was also explained by the fact that we had some development pipeline which were not generated any income and that, on the contrary, had an impact on the debt debt without any remuneration attached to this level. So nine times was the historical level. This is the level at which we are comfortable, and so the idea is as we continue to deleverage to get to this nine times level.
And as I said during the presentation, so this year we have been pretty active on asset management and we'll continue to do so. So we don't exclude to do other type of deals of the type of the one we did with CPP on UAW Germany or the one that we did with Nuveen and APG on Montgomery. So that's part of what we are constantly doing. So our teams are working on looking at all the the opportunities that may arise and see how we can then, again, as we said in March 2022, being focused on maximizing the value of what we own and where we know that we can create value.
The next question is from Jonathan Cohenator of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Just to follow up on Paul's question, In post-Hamburg, how much are you expecting to invest in terms of CapEx and how much you've baked in your 2025 guidance, first of all? But how much do you think about pipeline investment going forward, given that your committed pipeline is now about $500 million? That would be my first question, please.
When you look at what we anticipate in terms of capex in 2025, this will be obviously impacted by the completion of Westfield Hamburg. We still have 400 million euros to be spent on this project. So all in all, the capex anticipated and that was used, by the way, to compute this project. deleveraging trajectory was around 1 billion in 2025. We have another 700 million, also 600 or 700 million the year after. And when you look at those capex, in fact, you have around 100 million, which is maintenance capex, 100, which is connected to leasing. That was the historical levels. And on top of that, you have around 300 million euros of capex, which is connected to enhancement projects, including development pipeline, but also improvement on standing assets.
Okay. And is that a sort of recurring level going forward? Are you planning to increase that?
In fact, this is what we have done historically, in particular through the different projects on which we have. And now the question will be to which extent we will be in a position to refuel our development pipeline. You see that we have added an additional five projects in 2025, which, by the way, are projects which are highly profitable with at least 7% targeted yield on cost. So we continue on a case-by-case basis. So there's no real target, but as part of our deleveraging program and as part of our overall vision of the balancing structure, the discipline capital allocation is one key topic. And of course, this means that in terms of CapEx, we continue to be very strict on that front to ensure that we only go for projects that have a sufficient level of return for the group.
Perhaps I have another question. I mean, obviously, we saw also Klepia having strong over-revenue growth beyond just the street look, MGR, SBR. You've been highlighting, obviously, retail media as an opportunity. Do you see the growth that you have in these businesses as maintainable? I'm sure you'll talk about that during your investor day. But how much should we expect in terms of growth from these areas? And are you having recent more successes in that respect?
Yes, as you said, Jonathan, we'll share more with Anne-Sophie Sancerre around how we develop the retail media business and where we see it going. But we have not yet extracted 100% of the potential based on what we own and what we have already implemented. So we are very excited about the potential of the retail media and what we can extract in terms of additional revenues. I remind everyone that when we launched it, we were doing like 35 or 37 million per year of net margin. We doubled that. And when you look at the revenue per visit that we do today, it's $0.10. So we went from $0.05 to $0.10. If I look at what others are doing, even the London subway is doing like $0.15 to $0.20. So we should be able to continue to get this rising based on the data that we are able now to collect and extract and the algorithm that we have developed that would give us the ability somehow to be even better in the qualification of the agents, which will have even more value for the brands that want to advertise their products. So we'll share that during the investor day, but we have a huge ambition for that business. Thank you.
The next question is from Pierre-Emmanuel Gloire of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I have two questions. The first one on CNE. So I see that your services business on CNE is on double digit in 2024. So can we consider this activity as core or would you consider selling it? And maybe so if you can give us more colors on why the services business has been that much done in H2, it would be useful. Is it purely due to the Olympics or not? The second one, coming back on your pipeline, just to fully understand, should we consider that Westfield, Croydon, Neo, and Milano are completely canceled now? Or it would be more projects that should be delivered in a more medium-term period? And if you can also give us, let's say, the total cost already spent on the non-launched projects would be useful.
So just on Croydon and Milan and NEO, as we said when we announced that we were buying out the 50% remaining of the project of Croydon, it's like for Milan, we look at these projects first and foremost like land development. How do you unlock value from the land And then through working on the master planning, the zoning, and making sure that then you can extract from the land value and then see what would be the pieces of this land development that you would do yourself with a partner or sell to someone else. So this is what the teams are working on for Croydon. as well as for Milan and Neo. So we are still working on unlocking optionality or working on optionality and seeing where we will invest the money and if and when, and also for the right level of return. We have limited pre-development CapEx, as we said in March 2022. We said that we'll spend less than 100 million in pre-dev on all these different projects, which includes some of the projects that we have now put into the control pipeline. So that's what we are doing. So I don't have yet the figure on top of my head for what has been already invested. But this is limited from 2021 to 2024.
And so when it comes to your question of services, in fact, you need to make the split between three types of services. The first one is the services that are related to the CNA activity. And this one has grown significantly in the course of 2024 and in particular connected to the activity, in particular the Olympics and Paralympics. And in terms of balance between H1 and H2, I guess it was quite balanced. The second type of activity is what we call DD&C. So it's development, design and construction. And this is mainly the activity that is exercised in the UK when it comes in particular to the development projects in the UK, Coppermaker Square. And so the recognition of the revenues for this activity depend on the progress of the activity, the progress of the project and the works. And so on this one, There was in fact some delays in the delivery, so this project will be delivered in 2025, hence the fact that in 2024 in H1 you had some revenues and less in H2 or even limited revenues in H2, but we expect to have more revenues in 2025 as this project will be fully delivered. And the third type of activity is property and management services. So basically asset and property management services. So this one is overall stable, slightly down in 2024 as a result of aid disposals and lower activity in Germany. But there's one thing that is worth mentioning, by the way, which is when we sold a number of our assets, including through joint ventures, including in cases where we have a minority stake, like the Trinity Tower or even in O Park, when we sold the full ownership of this asset, we'll continue to manage these assets and get some fees out of these activities. And so this will support the services to the tune of something like 5 million per year.
Okay, thank you. And is it still core or not the C&E business?
I think we made the demonstration again that what we have seen in our molds is like convention is back. We benefited from a strong 2024 year based on the Paris Olympic, which have been really a booster. We are still working on how we will improve going forward. the commercial tension and power of some locations that would be connected to the Parisian subway in the coming years and which would change the commercial, I would say, not tension, I should say, appeal of these assets for more public shows. And I'm talking here about Porte de Versailles and obviously Le Bourget that would be connected in 27, 28 to the Parisian subway network.
The next question is from Sam King of BNP Paribas.
Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Two from me, please. The first is just on balance sheet structure, where effectively you're over-hedged. Have you looked at any liability management, such as buying back bonds that cost more than the rate you expect to receive on cash to limit the impact on net financing costs? Or are you comfortable holding that level of liquidity to fund CapEx and potential acquisitions? That's the first one. And then the second one is just coming back to the credit rating. and how you think about that in the context of the dividend payout. I appreciate the three pillars that you highlight, but is a credit rating upgrade, at least in terms of outlook, something that influences the board's decision on potential distributions?
so starting with your first question on the on the level of of liquidity um so we have 5.3 billion euros of of cash um and so the purpose of this cash uh is really to cover the funding needs that we have and just uh as a quick reminder uh we have three billion euros of debt maturing in uh 2025 and another an additional 1.6 billion uh maturing in uh in 2026 so This level of cash allows us to anticipate these funding needs to repay the debt. And by the way, this allows us to seize the right market windows when we decide to come back to the market. And as I've mentioned during the presentation, we've raised this 1.3 billion euros of bonds in 2024 at the best time of the year when it comes to the overall coupon that could be achieved. that was really very attractive with a 10-year below 4%. And so this is something that you can do to the extent that you have enough visibility when it comes to your liquidity need and that we are not forced to access the market at the wrong time. And by the way, when you look at the secondary level of our 10-year bond, it's straight to the 20 basis points wider on the spread, which shows that effectively we really picked the right window. Now, when it comes to the use of this cash, of course, one actual idea is to do some liability management. And by the way, we've done and have done four or five of those liability management exercises in the past. Now, when it comes to this type of exercise, what you need to look at is not only the coupon, but also the maturity of the debt that you want to repay. And so this is also something that has to be taken into account into the equation. But this is obviously something that we look at very closely. It was not so much needed in 2024 nor in 2023 in view of the high cash remuneration that we could receive at that time. So as this decreases, this is something that we may effectively consider, but on a very opportunistic basis, by the way, as we've done already in the past. So that's on the liability management topic. Now, when it comes to the question of the rating agencies, I mean, the way we work is more we set what is, in our view, the right level of disposals in view of the quality of the assets, in view of what we want to sell, in view of the maturity of these assets. So that's one part when it comes to the disposals. And as Jean-Marie said... There are assets that are weaker assets that we may want to get rid of, sell. So when I say weaker, it doesn't mean that they are bad quality assets, but they are on average in our portfolio, lower quality. And by the way, very often these are the best assets of the buyers. So we'll continue to work on that basis based on the return that can be expected on these assets. And when it comes to the distribution, we effectively define this level of distribution that, in our view, makes sense in terms of overall balance sheet structure independently. And what we work on is to ensure that this has no negative impact on the rating. And this is why also we've set this 3.50 euros per share distribution for 2024. Thanks very much.
The last question is from Mark Mozzi of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good morning, all. My question will be very simple. Why your dividend is that low on the basis of a 40% payout ratio, 5 billion cash in hand, backlog of dividend payment of 14 euros per share, your strong balancing position? What are we missing here in terms of your dividend policy?
As we said, we still need to continue deleveraging the company. We've done, as I said, significant progress. Again, reducing the debt net by 4.7 billion, reducing our LTV to 40 by 400 basis points. But we still have an IFRS LTV, including hybrid. And I think maybe the missing part is the hybrid part of it, which is at 44.7%. And here, our target is more to go back around 40%. As you've seen, by the way, in the trajectory that we are showing, we are in a position to get there after two years, assuming that there's some increase in value. So this is what we still need to continue achieving to ensure that effectively we have the proper level of balance sheet. And so we will increase the distribution. gradually, again on the basis of this operating performance, the disposal that we complete and the revaluation that will support ultimately the level of the LTV of the company. Now when it comes to maybe a second question which is why do we distribute out of the premium and not out of the results, it's because the statutory return result of the company is still negative at minus 1.9 billion and therefore we cannot distribute any result as it is negative so that's why we still need to pay out of the premium which represents 13.5 billion euros of distribution and as you said We still have 2.5 billion euros of backlog from SIG distribution and this SIG distribution will only be distributed to the extent that our written statutory result becomes positive again and so this means that we have 1.9 billion euros to absorb of losses before we are in a position to start paying this 2.6 billion euros of SIG distribution. And as I said before, in fact, this will happen over time in view in particular of A, the cash flow generated by the company, and B, the progress on the disposal, and three, on the revaluation of the assets, which will allow us to reverse part of the impairment in values that explain this loss of 1.9 billion to date in our books. And therefore, in that scenario, we'd be in a position to have a higher loan-to-value and therefore to resume the SIG distribution.
Is it clear Mark? That's very clear. My second question was, are you intending to reinstate an interim dividend payment?
In fact, when you face the situation of having to pay your distribution, and by the way, it's not a dividend, it's a distribution, technically, and so when you have to pay your distribution out of the premium to pay an interim distribution, this requires an AGM, an additional AGM, and so this is why, at this stage, it's not on the agenda to have this interim dividend, or interim dividend, because in fact, we would require an additional AGM to decide upon that.
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Okay, so then thank you for attending the full year resus presentation. And obviously we will see you during the different world shows and conference that we participate in. And we expect you, obviously we are expecting you to come to Paris on the 14th of May to share more about our strategy and the plan going forward. Thank you.
Thank you, bye-bye.
