BlueNord ASA

Good morning and welcome to Blue Nord's earnings presentation for the second quarter of 2023. Together with Marianne, Catherine and Jacqueline, I'm pleased to be able to present today that during the last three months we delivered strong performance and significant progress across our entire portfolio. With high levels of production and the execution of activities supporting our near-term growth, we're well positioned both for today and for the future. a future where we continue to outperform operationally, maintain a robust financial position and stay true to our longstanding commitment to create value for and return capital to our shareholders. We'll open up for Q&A at the end, but before we do that, let's walk through some key highlights from our second quarter. As we've already announced, our production level of 23.6 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day exceeded our guidance for the quarter. This is a fantastic result and one that demonstrates the consistency of our operations. It marks the tenth consecutive quarter where we've either been at or above our projected figures for the relevant period, and this has been achieved notwithstanding several upward revisions, the most recent of which we made in June. That revised production outlook reflects the meaningful success that we've seen from ongoing maintenance and optimisation programmes and positions as well for the second half of the year. Against this backdrop, the long-standing growth focus of Blue Nord continues to position us for the future. We recently spud the first of two infill wells to be drilled in 2023 and we expect both of these to be on stream by the end of the year. We're also making significant progress in delivering tyre, which Marianne will talk a bit more about in her section. But in short, we remain on track for delivering first gas according to the P50 schedule in December 2023. In combination, with Tyre on stream and with seven infill wells to be drilled, we expect production will exceed 55,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent in 2025 and will remain above 40,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent in 2030. From a financial perspective, this strong operational performance translated into positive results, with revenues of $191 million and EBITDA of $99 million. We generated $58 million of operational cash flow, and we end the period with liquidity from cash and our undrawn RBL facility of $485 million. So to reiterate the point that I made at the outset, we are performing strongly today, but also have a portfolio with longevity that we expect to continue delivering as we move forward. Having talked through our performance, let's briefly remind about the portfolio itself. We hold a 36.8% non-operated working interest in the Danish Underground Consortium, which is operated by Total Energies. The DUC encompasses 15 fields across four hubs, with three of those hubs currently in production. The fourth hub, Tyra, is expected to restart in December 2023. We also have substantial offshore infrastructure with direct export routes to Denmark and continental Europe. At the end of 2022, we shared our long-term strategic plan for the DUC, which incorporates the restart of Tyre, at least seven info wells to be drilled, and the development of three future projects. In combination, and based purely on our existing organic position, delivery of this plan will see Blue Nord continue to strengthen its strategic position as a leading European energy producer, with production of over 55,000 barrels a day in 2025 and over 40,000 barrels a day in 2030. And this performance very clearly reflects the strategic priorities that we'll talk about more on the next page. But before getting there, I'd like to highlight that we as Blue Nord have consistently focused on doing what we can to support energy security in Denmark and the European Union more broadly. We do this by committing to produce the energy that is needed for as long as it's needed. And Tyra exemplifies this, turning as it will Denmark from a net importer to a net exporter. And our strategy beyond that remains one of maximising production to the extent it's economic to do so. In that vein, it was encouraging to see the announcement of a mini-licensing round in Denmark after Blue Nord's application for a license containing the ELILUK discoveries. It demonstrates a recognition of the significant benefits of producing offshore Europe compared to importing the same volumes, including reduced cost, increased certainty and lower carbon emissions. all of which combines to make Blue Nord, through its position in the DUC and longer-term objectives, a strategically important player in the European energy landscape. Turning to look at our strategic priorities, against the backdrop that I outlined on the previous page, we've set clear strategic goals for ourselves to maximise our contribution. Firstly, we're delivering operationally with strong production driven by active reservoir management that is mitigating the natural decline. Activities like ROM will continue beyond 2023 and we're pursuing short cycle investment opportunities to supplement our existing production levels. We'll drill a total of seven wells between 2023 and 2025, two of which have already been sanctioned and one of those has in fact already been spud. We're also delivering tyre, with recent progress keeping us on track for first gas in line with the P50 timetable in December 2023. Standing here last quarter, we announced that we'd started up the first GTG. Last week, we announced that now two of the three GTGs are available for continuous operation. This is a significant de-risking in our journey towards materially increasing Blue Nord's performance with significantly higher production, reduced operating costs and lower emissions intensity. It will also drive significant cash flow generation and pave the way for us to be able to begin distributions to shareholders. Finally, we're delivering on our long-term potential. The unveiling of our long-term plan for maximising economic recovery from the DUC at the end of 2022 showcased our portfolio of attractive organic growth opportunities. And beyond the DUC, the licence application submitted for Early Look demonstrates our commitment to exploring opportunities for future value creation. Our approach to unlocking long-term potential is very much mindful of both our capital structure and our commitment to maximising shareholder returns. So let's turn to the next page to walk through what that means in practice. A key part of delivering the potential of our portfolio means establishing a substantial and sustainable dividend profile. Our capital allocation framework is designed to ensure that a dividend mirrors our cash generation potential, while also ensuring that we keep the value of our portfolio as high as possible for as long as possible. Within this setup, distributions to shareholders are the number one priority. We're committed to operating with the lowest possible emissions intensity and reducing our carbon footprint. As you've already heard today, this is our way of supporting a future where we meet current energy demands while also safeguarding the environment for the future. And with that material opportunity set, we are clear that all future decisions around investing will be evaluated based on how they contribute to our overall distribution capacity, both in terms of timing and quantum. We're not driven by volume goals, but rather by the clear objective of maximising the cash that we can return to shareholders. And with that, I'll hand over to Marianne, our COO, to talk through recent operational performance and progress on Tyra. Thank you.

Okay. Thank you, Yvonne. Overall, we've had an excellent quarter. We increased production through well activities and also shorter shutdowns than planned. We have made significant progress on the Tyra redevelopment and we've made good progress on the first infill well in a campaign of seven wells. Starting with production, we are continuing the trend with good operational performance from last year and Q1. Q2 production was 23,600 BOV per day, which is just above the upper guidance. As you can see from the plot, Q2 production is a bit of an anomaly and lower than historic and future quarters. due to planned shutdowns. The planned shutdown was to execute work on the Halfdan reroute project, which will change the process configuration, processing Halfdan oil on Dan rather than Gorm. And I'm very pleased to tell you that when this project is complete in the third quarter, this will eliminate the routine flaring on the DOC fields. The operator Total Energies did a good job on minimizing losses during shutdown. And in addition, we saw good gains from stimulation work, both on Dawn and Gorm. We have a high level of well optimisation activities and we see a clear effect on the underlying well potential. The 8th of June was a particularly good day where we actually produced more than 30,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day net blue-noir. So that shows the very good effect that we have from the well optimisation activities. We have two rigs working to increase production in the DUC right now. And we see that with this activity level, we are able to mitigate the decline. The Noble Reacher is working on well optimization activities, and we see good gains. And the 30,000 BOV per day is a very good example of that. The shelf drilling winner has started on the infill drilling campaign. Around year end, we expect to sanction further three wells, one near-field low-risk exploration well from the Harald Field, one of the Tyra satellites, which is located 80 kilometres north of Tyra, close to the Norwegian border, and then further two infill wells on Halftan. The drilling sequence on the shelf drilling winner is dynamic and it will change or optimize as technical studies are performed and production history is gained to ensure that we use the rig days in a way that maximize return. The two last well slots are still subject to optimization and final decision so we have kept a generic name for these. So the start of infill drilling is an important event for the DUC partnership. This is the first drilling activity since 2019. We've identified two good targets, which we expect will add almost 3 million barrels of oil equivalents to Blue Nord and significant rate contribution at the end of this year and beginning of next year. The shelf drilling winner has now been drilling on Halvdan North since June and we are making good progress. We will reach the reservoir this month and we will then drill the horizontal producing section of the well. Complete it, stimulate it and we will be ready for production in the autumn. As soon as we finish the first well, we will move on to the second Halfdan-Infin well, where we expect to start operations in the autumn. And we expect the second well to be on stream before the end of this year. Moving on to Tyra, the Tyra redevelopment is of strategic importance and will provide necessary gas to Denmark and Europe and will transform our business in the DUC. We will be able to unlock significant volumes from Tyra and the satellites with modern and efficient processing facilities. CO2 intensity from the BlueNor operations will reduce with around 30%. We will also almost double the BlueNor production, expect to produce 55,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day net in 2025 with a gas share of 45%. The increased production from Tyra also means that we will reduce our unit operating cost to $13 per BOV. As announced last week, we made really good progress on Tyra towards first gas, with two of the gas turbine power generators being available. We had expected to complete one of these in the beginning of July, so completing two is a great achievement by the Total Energies project team. Over the last quarter, we have seen tangible progress on all work fronts. On Tara East, we have now completed the reinstatement of all 19 wells and the well reinstatement crew has moved on to Tara West. All risers have been tied in on Tara East and for the entire project, we have only one left on Tara West. We now have a dedicated vessel to execute work to ensure all Tyra satellites and infill pipelines are ready for production. We're making excellent progress also on the Harald field, which will be the first Tyra field to be on stream. For the offshore hookup activity, we had a bit of a slow start with lower offshore productivity than planned. I'm pleased to say that we now have seen an improvement in offshore productivity this quarter. Focus now is on maintaining this performance through the summer and into the winter months. We are entering a critical period with respect to commissioning when we start leak testing in July and potential defects from the yard could be discovered and will need to be rectified before we can deliver first gas. The Total Energies team has done a good piece of work to optimize the commissioning sequence. Instead of using natural gas, nitrogen, which will be generated on Tyra, will be used to clean and commission the gas compression trains. This has several benefits. First of all, this extends the period where you have a cold platform. There is a safety risk associated with doing construction activity on a hot platform with natural gas present, and this new strategy will reduce the period where this is an issue. The use of nitrogen as the commissioning medium means that some activities that were scheduled to happen after gas-in can now be accelerated. That means that if you discover defects, you have more time available to fix these so that it will not impact the first gas date. It's also safer for the team performing these activities to do this with nitrogen rather than natural gas, and this will also have reduced emissions. There is no change to the gas for first gas export, which remains in line with the P50. We have passed some very important milestones during the last quarter with all Tara East risers tied in, seawater lift pumps installed, and most importantly, we have not only one, which was the plan, but two gas turbine generators available. Now that we have power generation available, the next important stage of the commissioning phase is leak testing, which is about to start. There is no change to the overall budget for Tyra, so we continue to draw down on the budget with $100 million blue nor net remaining to first gas, and then we add another 90 after first gas. The exchange rate has been fluctuating, so taken into account FX into account, we have 198 million US dollar net to BlueNor for the total duration of the project. On the slide, you can see the range for first gas from the CC3 rebase line in August with a range between October this year and March next year with P50 in December. With this, I'm handing over to Cathrine over EVP for Investor Relations and ESG.

Thank you, Marianne. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining. So one of our key objectives is to contribute to energy security in Europe. We all know the importance of stable energy supply, and we also know how important it is to manage the energy transition. In BlueNord, we have a balanced approach to both, and I will now explain how we deliver into each. So first of all, we will deliver into the energy needs of Denmark and Europe. We're doing this today on our producing assets, where proactive optimization work has mitigated natural declines since 2021. We do it by drilling valuable infill wells to increase gas output. And we first and foremost do this by delivering Tyra this winter. Taira will take Denmark from being a net importer of gas to being a net exporter of gas, which is important as a member of the European Union. Gas produced within the EU and which you can transport by pipelines is both more secure and also comes with lower emissions footprint than, for example, imported LNG. We're therefore very pleased to see that Denmark intends to contribute further to energy security in Europe by the official launch of the ELILUK licensing round, which was announced last week. ELILUK has the potential to deliver 5 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe for decades, which is in line with our objective to maximize gas production in Denmark. And then, but still closely correlated, are the activities we do to support the energy transition. With natural gas being an important transition fuel as we move towards net zero, it is important that we do what we can to ensure that the development and production of that gas is done efficiently and with a lowering emissions intensity. We do this by delivering Tyra. Tyra 2 is a high-tech and efficient production facility. And once producing, it will do so with a 30% lower emissions intensity. We also do this by reducing emissions across the entire portfolio. One tangible step taken this quarter is the Halfdan reroute project. By routing Halfdan oil to Dan, we will eliminate routine flaring completely by next quarter, which will be a very important achievement for the entire DUC. Looking at the energy transition through longer lenses, we have positioned ourselves within CCS. CCS is something we believe will be a critical solution on a global scale. In Project Bifrost, we're together with the DUC partners, Ørsted and DTU, investigating the potential for offshore storage of CO2. And through our involvement in carbon cuts, we are assessing what could be a fantastic onshore storage project. So to summarize, we think we have a realistic approach where we will contribute to the energy security in Europe while we at the same time lower the emissions and invest in solutions which will be important for the future. As a continuation of this ambition to deliver into the energy needs of Denmark and Europe, we have a long-term plan which includes both infill wells and development projects. This plan is reflective of what is the actual objective of the partnership to maximise economic recovery from the DUC. As mentioned, the infill wells is an important part for our plan to increase gas production over the next few years. The seven wells divided into four projects are low cost and represents incremental volumes of circa 19 million barrels of oil equivalents. Shelf drilling winter sputtered the first well in June, and this well will start producing this autumn. And the second well will be sputtered shortly after with production by year-end. And together with production from Halfdan, Gorm, Dan and Tyra, the infill wells will lift our production to above 50,000 barrels a day by 2025, which today would correspond to an increase in gas production by circa 250%. The second bucket in the long-term plan consists of the three development projects you all know pretty well by now, Valdemarbo South, Adda and Halfda North. These are identified and highly attractive projects where the gas-weighted ones are prioritized first. The projects will ensure that a high level of production in Blue Nord is sustained over time, such that when we are in 2030, and despite the overall natural decline, we can maintain a daily production well above 40,000 barrels per day. The three projects mentioned will add 43 million barrels based upon our latest 2C numbers. There is no specific new information or any updates on this slide this quarter. However, I would like to repeat how attractive we believe the three projects are. With unit capex below $15 per barrel, these are highly cash-generative projects, which will come with robust IRRs that can tackle most commodity price environments. Also, and maybe in contrast to the Tyra redevelopment project, these are not complex projects. Very simple production infrastructure with four-legged unmanned jackets are needed. Production from the two first projects can also be tied back to Tyra 2, which is a great way of getting more value from the new and state-of-the-art facility and also ensuring that the process capacity on Tyra is fully utilised. The projects also have a relatively short time frame from commitment to production of approximately two years. And we expect the three projects to start production from 26, 27 and 29, with Valdemar Bo South being the first to be FID'd next year. So, as a conclusion of the previous two pages, here you can see the forecasted production profile over a 10-year period. Note that we have managed to keep 21 to 23 relatively flat, something which was further proven in our updated production guidance two weeks ago. Dark blue is the current production we have from Halfdan, Gorm and Dan. And the light green is the base production we will see from Tyra, which is estimated at a relatively conservative way. The light blue, which is slightly visible already this year, it represents the in-plan projects. The infill wells are dominant in the next couple of years, and you can especially see the meaningful impact they will have in 2025, lifting our net production above 55,000 barrels per day. From 2026, we see the first volumes from Valdemarbo South, followed by gas from Adda in 2027, and oil from Halvdal North in 2029. I would like to highlight at the end that as a general principle, all investment decisions in Blue Nord need to support our long-term cash flow generation potential. And with the substantial dividend capacity unlocked by Tyra, this long-term plan is a great vehicle to sustain a robust capacity over time. And on that high note, I will say thank you for your time and pass over the word to Jacqueline, who will take you through your financials.

Thank you, Katrine. So the financial result for this quarter reflects the continued excellent underlying operating performance, as you've heard from Marianne earlier. There is a softening in commodity prices that continues to offset some of this positive result, but we continue to take advantage of positive hedging opportunities, especially in gas. In addition, our liftings of oil were again up this quarter, mainly coming from existing inventory on hand, and we do expect some of that inventory to be restocked in the second half of 2023. This combined has enabled us to maintain a solid revenue result for the second quarter of $191 million. Our operating cost level continues to include activities related to well recovery and optimisation, which is supporting the solid production performance. This reduction in aeropics that you can see from the previous quarter is primarily due to the rig move, and that's gone to the capex activity, the infill well drilling. And you can see this shift when you look at the cash flow, where there's a higher investing cash out flow. So that's increased correspondingly with the decrease in the opex. The average opex level for the first half of 2023 is in line with our expectations overall. As a result of the above, the overall contribution margin remains significantly positive with a reported EBITDA of $99 million in this quarter. Turning to the summary income statement now. And you can see the full earnings position here, which shows a continued positive net result following on from the first quarter. Aside from the operating performance, which I discussed on the previous slide, we do note just one thing to highlight here on the net financial items that is higher and that's impacted by a fair value movement on embedded derivatives. So there's an expense this quarter where we had a gain in the previous quarter. So if we move on to the balance sheet, You can see that this highlights spend continues primarily on tyre redevelopment as additions to property, plant and equipment. In this quarter, though, we also have the addition of the infill well drilling activities also as additions. Now, in terms of taxes payable position, the balance at the end of the second quarter does include our expected Chapter 2 taxes to be paid for the 2022 year, as well as the year-to-date accrual for 2023, less the repayment that we made in June for the tax benefit related to Chapter 3B. That was $40 million. So of the total $237 million that you can see at the end of the quarter, $224 million is an actual cash tax payable, and approximately $185 million of that is to be paid in 2023. There continues to be no Chapter 3 taxes payable in the current year. So turning to cash. We report a positive operating cash flow of $99 million before tax payments, and we have maintained a net positive cash inflow for the year to date of $16 million. Consistent with the earnings result mentioned previously, this quarter has been impacted by lower commodity prices, as well as a minimal working capital impact this quarter. when you compare it with the first quarter, where we did benefit significantly from higher cash receipts on both oil and gas. The investing cash flows have also increased, or outflows, have increased quarter on quarter, and this is driven primarily by Tyra redevelopment, but now we also have the infill drilling activity, which started in the second quarter. The liquidity position in the quarter maintains our fully funded outlook for the tyre redevelopment project. And you can see there's a closing available liquidity of $485 million. Now to take a quick look at the capital structure as it relates to Blue Nord. And you can see that this shows it remains robust and fully funded to deliver Tyra 2. We have a stable balance sheet and there are no principal maturities prior to Tyra first gas. The net debt position at the end of the quarter is $910 million. So just a final point to highlight is on the commodity price environment. And as a reminder, and we say this every quarter, the primary purpose for the price hedging is to provide visibility over our future cash flows and we will continue to add volumes where it makes sense to do so. Our oil hedging remains consistent in 2023 in our approach, with some hedging being added to the second half of 2024 this quarter, as well as into 2025. Regarding gas, we have hedged additional volumes this quarter for the winter of 2023-24, as well as the summer of 2024. Now, given the commodity price environment as it currently stands, it does make sense to take advantage where we can and add hedges when it looks attractive to do so. And this is also within our policy framework. And you can see from the chart here that the average hedge price for oil ranges from $55.5 per barrel in Q3 23 up to a top of $73 per barrel in Q2 25. the average hedge price for gas remains significantly above current market spot and forward prices. And you can see in summary here that the summer of 2023, we have an average hedge price of 114.3 euros per megawatt hour. The winter of 2023-24 is at an average of 126.1 euros per megawatt hour. And then the initial hedging for the summer of 2024 is at an average of 51.6 euros per megawatt hour. So aligned with our latest production guidance, Aligned with our latest production guidance, the remainder of 2023 is hedged 50% on oil and 35% on gas. So this hedging approach has supported our balance sheet and capital structure through the continued uncertain price environment and does help to bring a level of certainty over our funding position. And I'd just like to say in summary that for the financial position so far for this year, it continues to be on a solid footing with a strong first half of positive earnings and cash generation. And this supports our balance sheet position. It's underpinned by a robust capital structure, and this enables the delivery of our operational and financial goals. So on that note, I'll hand back to Ewan for closing remarks.

Thank you, Jacqueline. So in closing, you've heard a lot from us today, but before we open up for questions, I'd like to just close by summarizing both where we are and also where we're going. Today, our operations are performing strongly, production is high and cash generative, and we have momentum to carry this performance through the second half of 2023. By the end of 2023, with Tyra and the first two of seven infill wells on stream, our production will start to grow significantly. You've heard two numbers quoted today that are key. One is we'll be producing over 55,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent by 2025 and remaining above 40,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent in 2030. We now have key milestones on the horizon and that will very much see us move forward in delivering our long term potential. With our high quality asset base and supported by a meaningful portfolio of reserves and resources, Blue Nord will become an increasingly material player in the European supply landscape. One that not only produces significant volumes, but one that also returns material amounts of capital to shareholders. And with that, let's pause for 30 seconds to allow additional questions to be submitted, after which we'll come back to answer. In the meantime, thank you once again for joining today.

Okay, so the first question received is for Marianna. What should we expect in terms of tyre reproduction ramp up towards Plateau? Will it be somewhat back and loaded from first gas to Plateau as there will be remaining scope after first gas or could it be more linear?

So with respect to the Tara production ramp up, we're currently assuming a linear ramp up, but we are doing technical work in-house and we'll come back with more details as we get closer to first gas.

And next one for Marianne as well. What are the main risks ahead of us that could challenge the existing project timeline? What do you see as the most critical milestones ahead of us in order to reach plateau production next summer?

So I see two main risks to delivery of first gas in December and reaching plateau according to plan in 24. The first one is offshore productivity. Even if we're seeing good productivity right now, we really need to maintain that good productivity also through the winter months. The other risk is related to what will we uncover during the commissioning and leak testing. So we know that we will uncover technical issues and that we have planned for that, but we don't know exactly what is the magnitude of the technical work that is required to fix what we will find. And I would say that rather than milestones, what we will be monitoring is the progress of the leak testing and also remaining offshore overs. So we will be looking at how many packages are we able to leak test per week. Leak testing will be done during the night shift and during the day, the crew will work on expediting the remaining offshore overs.

And also for Marianna, does Blue Nord plan exploration drilling in the Elliluk license, or is it just a plan to develop the existing discoveries?

So we do not plan any exploration drilling on Elliluk, purely developing the existing discoveries.

And then for Jacqueline, could you please provide an update on general industry cost inflation? In which parts of the value chain do you see most or least inflation?

Yeah, I think areas where we tend to maintain a focus would really be around, in particular, our logistics costs and also around fuel and chemicals. There's certainly areas where there can be some pressure, as well as, of course, rig contracts, which these are, of course, some of our more significant cost areas. We do have existing rigs on contract, and they're obviously ones that we would then look at what the options are within those contracts. I think on the positive side, of course, the Tyra contracts are set, so we have a lot of visibility in that space.

Thank you. And then, Yuen, when should we expect first dividends?

So the timing of the first dividend is related to Tyra First Gas and then the production ramp up. Under our capital structure, the dividend restrictions are lifted once Tyra is on stream and has been producing at the operators low case for three months. So that results in a first dividend payment to be made during 2024. And we'll certainly provide further guidance significantly in advance of that first payment.

And then Marianne, what is the assumed recovery rate for Tyra's 2p reserves of 200?

So I don't have an easy answer for this question. And I assume with the recovery rate that you mean recovery factor. We need to remember that Tyra consists of six different fields. In addition to Tyra, you've got Valdemar, Roar, Harald, Lolita and Harald West as well. And those fields all have their own specifics and different recovery rates. What's very exciting for us right now is to review the pressure measurements that we have just got in from some of the Tyra wells. So we know that the field, it's been closed in for several years. And what we're investigating right now is how much of a recharge has happened and what will that do to the production that we get when we get on stream. So that's technical work ongoing right now. we should be able to give some more details on the Tyra build-up later in the year.

And then Jacqueline, cash tax table for 2023 of 185 million. How much will be paid during Q3 and Q4 respectively?

Yeah, all of it will be in Q4.

All right, thank you. And that concludes the Q&A session. Thank you all for joining.