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BlueNord ASA
5/14/2025
Good morning and welcome to Bluenord's results presentation for the first quarter of 2025. Over the next 30 minutes or so, we'll walk through our performance for the quarter, share our outlook and explain why we continue to believe Bluenord is well positioned, both in today's market and over the longer term. But before we get into the slides, I'd like to start by speaking a little bit about Tyra. We have made real progress in 2025. More wells have been commissioned, more wells have come online, and reservoir performance has been consistently strong, culminating in net production from Tyre exceeding 26,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day earlier in May. However, it's also fair to say that above ground performance has not yet met expectations. Several unplanned outages impacted uptime and as a result, Tyra has not yet reached a consistently steady operational state. Ramp up to plateau has therefore taken longer than expected. So where are we today? Up until last week, production was steadily increasing and we'd reached our highest daily output from Tyra yet. Unfortunately, a short unplanned outage then temporarily shut down the facilities and we're now back in the process of ramping production back up to those prior levels as quickly as possible. And where do we go from here? First, it's important to acknowledge that some level of disruption was always expected when bringing a project of Tyra's scale fully online. That said, it's also clear, and we're fully aligned with the operator on this, that facility performance needs to improve. Miriam will shortly outline the concrete steps we're taking, but I also want to be clear. Our shared priority is to stabilize operations and unlock the full potential of the Tyra hub. That's critical because the subsurface continues to outperform. The reservoir is strong, and that would have been a far more difficult thing to fix. These surface issues are of course frustrating, but they are solvable. And once they are, we'll be in a strong position to deliver the long-term value Tyra was designed to provide. And with that context, let's turn to the first slide and look at some of the key highlights for the quarter. So let's begin with base production. Across DAN, Halfdan and Gorm, we averaged 20.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q1, fully in line with guidance. This continues the predictable low decline performance that we've seen for several years now. And looking ahead, we expect this to be further supported by ongoing optimisation activity through 2025 and beyond. During the quarter, we also revised the timing of our next infill wells, which are now scheduled for 2026. This reflects two key factors. One, the sustained above-expectation performance from the Harold East Middle Jurassic well, and two, a clear focus on maintaining cost discipline and our disciplined approach to near-term capital allocation. This action in itself will reduce Bluenor's 2025 capex by roughly $50 million. And if we now turn again to Tyra, so while Q1 production averaged 8.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, by early May we had reached over 26,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day net to Blue Nord. And that's within our steady state guidance for the hub, which is defined by gas export being constrained at approximately 250 million standard cubic feet per day. So far, for that 26,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent, that reflects only around 70% of the total gas export capacity. The strong production levels have been driven by better than expected liquid volumes, and that's a clear signal that there's more to come from Tyra as we optimise the production. Once at full production, we expect Tyra to remain at plateau throughout 2025 and well into 2026, supported in particular by the continued outperformance from Harold East Middle Jurassic, which continues to significantly outperform our original expectations. On the financial side, Q1 performance was solid, although it was impacted by lower than expected Tyra production and one-off penalties related to gas nominations. These gas nomination costs are one-off in nature, and once Tyra is steady state, we do not expect these to reoccur. Still, our outlook is strong. With Tyra ramping up, we expect material increases in cash flow going forward. During the quarter, we also released $158 million of cash from escrow. And as a result, we're ending Q1 with $684 million in total liquidity, a combination of cash on hand and undrawn RBL capacity. So that gives us a strong platform to deliver on our key objectives. And with that, let's turn to the next slide and discuss objective number one, distributions. So while the cash flow we generate, particularly as Tyra reaches and maintains Plateau, supports all our stakeholders, our near-term focus is on returning meaningful value to shareholders through distributions. And the capital structure that we have in place gives us the flexibility and financial strength to deliver on this core commitment. Following our proposed 2024 distribution of $215 million, we're today proposing an additional $38 million for the first quarter of 2025. Both of these distributions sit at the top end of our policy range, representing 70% of net operating cash flow for the relevant periods, and that's a clear signal of our intent. It reflects our confidence in the business, our operational progress, and the strength of our cash flow. On the previous slide, we talked about what Tyra means from an operational standpoint. But Tyra is also the key that unlocks our distribution plan. It enables us to start making these returns a reality, and the threshold here is meeting the Tyra RBL completion test. Based on continued stable operations, we now expect to satisfy this test in early June, and once met, we'll be able to formally declare and pay these distributions, the first of which will total $253 million, covering both 2024 and Q1 2025. Now, if we turn to the next slide, I'd like to focus a little on the features that we believe position us particularly well in the current environment. Blue Nord is a business with a very clear and very focused strategy. Our objective is to maximise the cash flow from our producing asset base and then use this to underpin our material capital returns programme. We deliver on this through strong operational performance, through maintaining a conservative capital structure and through being proactive in looking for opportunities to manage risk and our exposure to volatile markets. The first few months of 2025 have been marked by significant commodity price volatility. But that's not new. It's a fundamental feature of the industry we're in. And that's why it's important to have a business model that thrives when prices are strong and remains resilient when they're lower. We believe Blue Nord is positioned to do both. And here's why. First, we're becoming a low-cost producer. Once Tyre is at plateau, our lifting costs drop to below $13 a barrel. Second, we're proactive. We took steps at the start of the year to adjust our cost base and lower our capex spend for the next 12 months. And third, we continually look to lock in future commodity prices when we think it's attractive to do so. We've added hedges, particularly during Q1, that will significantly improve our cash flow outlook. These things combined give us the stability to maintain a consistent equity story, one that will see us return 50% to 70% of our net operating cash flow to shareholders until the end of 2026. Now, I'd like to hand over to Miriam to provide some further details on our operations. Thank you.
Thank you, Euan. Today, I will take you through how we achieved the strong production for the base assets for the first quarter of 2025 and share the outlook for the remainder of the year, along with the updated Blue Nord production guidance for 2025. We have initiated a higher level of plant integrity work to ensure the facilities maintain high operational efficiency. This quarter, work has been carried out on GORM. As Eon mentioned, we have made strategic operational decisions to optimize the RUM workover and drilling program. I will provide more details in the presentation today. Then I will update you on the status for TIRA and the updated BlueNord guidance for TIRA for 2025. Let us first look at the production performance for the base assets for Q1 and the activities for 2025 supporting the production. I'm pleased to share that the Q1 production from the base assets of 20.9 MbuE per day net to BlueNord is meeting our guidance range of 20 to 22 MbuE per day net. The quarterly production was achieved despite a slower ramp up of GORM production after completing the planned integrity scope. I want to highlight the fact that we now have consistently met or exceeded our guidance for the last 17 quarters. In March, the installation of a flare recovery system was completed on Gorm, resulting in a reduction in flare on Gorm of approximately 30%. An evaluation of the performance of this project may enable flare recovery on Haftan. The ROM campaign on Haftan commenced in January 2024 and was successfully completed in January 2025 with 21 interventions on 20 wells. The Nobel Reacher rig is currently at the Haftan Northeast ACA platform executing the gas lift project, which will enable stable production for longer from the Haftan Northeast gas field. Workovers were successfully completed from the Shelves Drilling Winner on Halfdan in early 2025 to Safeguard Production. The Shelves Drilling Winner has been moved to DanFF, where several high-opportunity workovers are being carried out until mid-August 2025, adding volumes to 25 production and beyond. We have updated our 2025 production guidance for base assets to reflect the following strategic operational decisions based on ongoing efforts to reduce near-term costs. First, to optimize ROM work by completing the scope from the platforms. Two, to delay the drilling of the Valdemar Upper Cretaceous Well due to the success of the Herald East Mill Jurassic Well extending the tyre plateau. And third, to delay the Hafta and Ecofisk infill wells to mid-2026, providing direct learning opportunities to Valdemar Upper Cretaceous, reducing both time and cost. These decisions support the release of the two rigs. The deferral of 2025 production from the delayed infill wells is impacting Q3 and Q4 production guidance. However, there is an uplift from the DanFF workovers. Round 3 on GORM is planned to commence in Q3 from the platform. So in summary, production from Q1 was strong and we will maintain focus on keeping operational efficiency high despite production deferrals due to a higher level of planned integrity work. Let me now take you through the rationale for the strategic operational decisions. In a strategic move to optimize operations and reduce near-term costs, the decision has been made to release the self-drilling winter rig and not extend the noble reacher rig. These decisions build on the success of recent initiatives and focus on achieving significant near-term cost savings with minimal impact on our operations. The decision to release the rig is based on the success of the recently drilled Harold East Mill Jurassic Well, which is estimated to have extended the production plateau for Tyre by at least 10 months. This extension has consequently pushed the Valdemar Upper Cretaceous Infill Well out in time. Additionally, the two Haften Ecofisk infill wells are planned to be drilled in a campaign just before the Valdemar well delaying this campaign to mid-2026. Drilling these infill wells consecutively will provide direct learning opportunities, reducing both time and cost. In the five months leading up to the rig's release, a Dan FF Workover campaign with several high-opportunity wells has been included in the work program to be completed by mid-August 2025. Letting the rig go positions us to capitalize on future opportunities in an open market where cost savings can be realized when a rig is required mid-next year to commence the planned infill drilling program to support a low decline rate. The Noble Retail Rig was initially contracted back in 2022 to address a backlog of maintenance that had accumulated over some years of reduced activity. Over the past two and a half years, a combination of maintenance and ROM initiatives have significantly reduced this backlog and improved production performance. Several wells on DAN have been successfully brought back into production, and the executed run work on half-DAN have shown promising results. One of the key advantages of transitioning maintenance and well intervention from rig-based operations to platform-based solutions is a substantial cost reduction. By integrating new lightweight equipment, coil tubing interventions can be executed directly from the platform, eliminating the need for additional rig mobilization costs and saving time. The first platform-based ROM campaign is scheduled to commence on GORM in Q3 2025. Deferring the half-dan infill well from 2025 to 2026 is expected to generate a net positive cash flow of $13 million for BlueNord. Additionally, transitioning from RIC to platform-based ROM could add $11 million net to BlueNord. Jacqueline, our CFO, will give you more insights into CapEx spend for the year. And now let us look at the status of Tyra and an updated Tyra guidance for 2025. Tire is currently on stream and continues to ramp up, although the progress is slower than expected. We delivered tire production of 8.9 MbE per day net, which is below guidance of 26-30 MbE net for the quarter. The slow ramp-up is mainly due to minor operational issues like the one occurring 8th of May, but also a few incidents requiring longer shutdowns, like the damage to the mechanical seal on the IP compressor, halting the production circa two weeks in January, and the breaker failure impacting the LP compressor for circa four weeks from early March, where it was not possible to commission wells during the repair period. It is important to mention here that a change in production mode enabled production from Harald during the breaker repair, resulting in a gas export of around 30% of plateau rate, supported by the successful Harald-East middle Jurassic well. But despite the slower ramp-up, I want to highlight that the recent peak production level from the tyre asset was approximately 26 MbE per day net, which is around 90% of the BlueNord estimated plateau rate of 30 MbE per day. Delivering 26 MbE per day net with less than 50% of the wealth being online is a significant achievement and due to a better reservoir performance than estimated. The estimated oil plateau of 32,000 barrels per day gross was reached in early May after bringing Valdemar A wells online, which are wells that are more weighted towards liquids. At present, the gas export rates have had room to increase by more than 30% before reaching the maximum capacity, which is driven by the gas processing on Tyra being constrained by the IP compressor. To achieve this, we need more gas-weighted wells online and stable production. The Tyra production guidance is based on reaching the plateau for both gas and liquids in May and maintaining stable production through 2025. The guidance for Q2 has been slightly revised based on April performance and reaching plateau in May. Now let us look at the status for the tyre wells and the work being undertaken to ensure stable production. Recently, the tyre acid peak production was above the lower end of the tyre guidance for stable plateau production. This was achieved with 91% of wells commissioned and less than 50% of the wells on production. As mentioned earlier, this means that the reservoirs are delivering above expectation and we were already producing at our estimated oil plateau rate. However, to reach plateau production in May, we need 1. to increase the production potential of the tyre asset and 2. to achieve stable operations and high operational efficiency. In order to increase production potential, wells are being commissioned and subsequently put on production. We have almost completed the commissioning of the wells. The remaining wells to be put on production have minor issues, which is to be expected after more than five years of being shut in. Plans are in place to fix these issues, including gas-lift valves, chokes and hydraulic issues. Regarding achieving stable operations, the operator Total Energies are undertaking a reliability study to identify and address key factors impacting the facilities and thereby the operational efficiency. The study and subsequent actions are supported by specialist vendors. To conclude the operations piece today, I can confirm that the continued focus on tire progress, our strong Q1-based assets production, and the optimization of big activities to save near-term costs with minimal impact to operations are all key components of our strategy for 2025. Together with the operator, we are committed to achieving these operational objectives. I will now hand over to Catherine, our Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, who will present the long-term outlook for BlueNord. Thank you.
Thank you, Miriam, and good morning to everyone. I will now take you through the role of Blue Nord in Denmark, the wider EU, and also how we will deliver into the energy needs and contribute to security of supply. With Tyron Stream, we are one of the largest oil and gas producers in the EU. And Denmark is a net importer of natural gas, having been a net importer since 2019. From an emissions intensity perspective, piped gas is undefeatable considering the alternative energy source of imported LNG. You can see this clearly demonstrated on this slide. And from a security of supply perspective, last week the European Commission published their Repower EU roadmap with an intent to ensure EU's full energy dependence from Russia. As regard to gas, the upcoming proposal will improve the transparency, monitoring and traceability of Russian gas across the EU markets. New contracts with suppliers of Russian gas, both piped and LNG, will be prevented. And existing spot contracts will be stopped by the end of this year. This measure will ensure that already by the end of this year, the EU will have slashed supplies of Russian gas by one third. The Commission will further propose to stop all remaining imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027, all of which will impact the European gas markets in the future. This further underpins the strategic importance of the underground assets in the DUC and its current and future contribution in an EU context. Our license expires in 2042 and an extension of this can be key to further enable a full utilization of existing and future projects. For example, TyRA is only constrained by the license expiry. Maximizing the economic recovery during the next 25 years is not only important from an energy security perspective, it's also very important to Denmark. The oil and gas industry is one of the biggest contributors to Danish welfare. And the Danish think tank Erhvervslivets tenketank recently estimated the industry to deliver state revenues of circa 55 billion Danish kroner during the next 25 years. This is an upside of an additional 11 billion Danish kroner if further known resources are developed and utilized. And this takes me to the next page where we show the resources that sit in our portfolio. As Miriam mentioned, we have re-phased the drilling program of infill wells. This was a result of cost optimization and a reduced need of near-term additional volumes due to the success of the HemJ well, which will increase Tyra Plateau significantly. Despite this, the infill well opportunities are still in the plan to be drilled, with three wells matured to a 2P stage, two on Halfdan and one on Valdemar. These three wells have strong economics, with a unit development cost of less than $13 per barrel. And with the additional potential of infill wells, both on Svend and especially around the Taira hub, we have more than 21 million barrels in 2P reserves and 2P resources from infill drilling opportunities. In addition, we have three impactful development projects, Taira North, Halfdan North and Valdemarbo South. These require simple infrastructure with unmanned platforms and all three can be tied back to existing processing facilities. This allows us to utilize our infrastructure and it also supports the projects being competitive from a price point, especially with unit technical costs below $20 per barrel. Tyra North and Halfda North have already been progressed sufficiently to be partially included in our 2P reserves and together the three projects add significantly to our reserves and resources by circa 45 million barrels. And with the optimized drilling schedule mentioned and the expected contribution from the HemJ well, the production profile we show every quarter has some changes to it. We start at the bottom in blue, where we have the base assets continuing to deliver a stable production. Production from Tyra in dark blue was limited last year, and this year will be the first meaningful year of production, followed by an even more impactful contribution next year. As you can see in 2027, output from Tyra is also very high, and this is partially driven by the significant contribution from the HemJ well. In green, and especially from 2027 and onwards, we see the re-facing of 2P projects, and these will be significant contributors to maintaining BlueNord's output high from the year of 2027. During the same time, the near-term projects, currently 2C resources in dark grey, supports an above 50,000 barrels per day production for the company. And finally, we have less mature 2C projects in light grey, which have the potential to lift production closer to 60,000 barrels per day in 2029 and 2030. So the revised production profile, which previously had us exiting the decade at around 40,000 barrels per day, will now maintain a circa 50,000 barrels per day production. This will further support cash flow generation and distributions to shareholders, while at the same time deliver into the energy needs of Denmark and Europe. And I will now leave the word to our CFO, Jacqueline, who will take you through our financials.
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