5/11/2021

speaker
Barbara Ferrante
Director of Investor Relations

Good evening and welcome to the SAFILO Group's first quarter 2021 trading update. This call may contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and operating, economic, and financial results for the SAFILO Group. Such forecasts, due to their nature, imply a component of risk and uncertainty due to the fact that they depend on the occurrence of certain future events and developments. The actual results may therefore vary, even significantly, to those announced in relation to a multitude of factors. Today's participants are Mr. Angelo Trocchia, Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Gerd Kressler, Chief Financial Officer, and Ms. Barbara Ferrante, Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Trocchia, you have the floor, sir.

speaker
Angelo Trocchia
Chief Executive Officer

Hi, good evening. Good evening, everyone. And thank you for attending today's conference call on the sample of Q1 2021 trading update. Exactly two months ago, during our discussion on the 2020 results, we talked about how the 2021 had started substantially in line with our expectations and how March could have been a key month Not so much for its potential significant upside compared to March last year, but more as a first important sign of how the overall business could perform compared to 2019. Without that, this year represents a fresh start for our group after two years of meaningful turnaround to give the company a stronger and more resilient business model. with a diversified brand portfolio and a supply chain right-sided to market reality. In the last two years, we have been working to reshape our brand portfolio from a concentrated to a diversified one, establishing global brands with high visibility and new champions with differentiated focus by geography and consumer segment. We are therefore pleased about this very positive start of 2021, which saw our Q1 sales and economic results exceed the first quarter of 2019. These results are all the more significant as they were achieved in a health and business environment, which has remained in the meantime tough in a number of countries and distribution channels. And they represent for us a first encouraging testimony of the growth we can aim for thanks to our new business leaders. Let's then look at the economic and financial CPI of the period. As you have noticed from our press release, given the exceptional nature of 2020, our results this year will be compared also with the same period of 2019, the most significant benchmark to measure the health of the market where we play and the progress of our operational execution. Our net sales in Q1 reached 251.4 million euros, up 20% at cost of exchange rate compared to the first quarter of last year, and more meaningfully, up 6% compared to the first quarter of 2019, thanks to the strong recovery recorded by our own brand and core license. with the new business in the portfolio effectively compensating the license terminated at the end of 2020. The positive sales momentum was again largely driven by the United States and by a better than expected growth of the online business, which again soared thanks to the higher contribution of our newly acquired e-commerce business, the higher growth of the Smith D2C channel, and the sales generated through the internet pool player. From an economic standpoint, in the first quarter we registered significant improvement in profitability, also in this case above last year, and again, even more important, above Q1 2019, thanks to the positive sales development, the ongoing strict discipline with which we are managing our expenses, and continue to pursue our structural saving plan, which has already provided, for now, linear overhead cost structure. Q1 this year, we recorded €25.8 million of adjusted EBITDA, and the margin which jumped to 10.3% of sales, exponentially above Q1 last year. Compared to Q1 2019, The increase was plus 29.4% in absolute terms and plus 220 basis points at marginal level. The group net debt at the end of March stood substantially in line with the position we recorded at the end of last year at 223.9 million euros. I'll now hand it over to Gerd for some additional details on the top and bottom line.

speaker
Gerd Kressler
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Angelo, and good evening to all of you connected via conference call and audio webcast. Let me add some color to the core highlights already provided to you by Angelo, starting from our Q1 Net Sales Performance, slide 4 of our presentation. The way in which we analyze our performance this year is by evaluating the effectiveness of our brand portfolio rebalance. This year, we have different moving parts in our portfolio and our objective for 2021 rests on the ability of our business, both owned and licensed, to effectively compensate the terminated activities, top and bottom line. This is indeed what happened in the first quarter of the year, when the contribution provided to the period by Privé-Revaux and Blenders, with the latter not yet included in our perimeter in Q1 2020, and the newer licensed brands in the portfolio, among them Levi's, David Beckham, Missoni Ports, and Isabelle Marant, largely compensated the licenses terminated at the end of last year. At the same time, our comparable brand portfolio recorded a strong recovery, explaining the majority of the upside we recorded compared to last year, but also versus Q1 2019. These are significant positive news for us, pretty much broad-based across our brand's from the strong growth of Smith and Carrera to the meaningful rebound of the majority of our licenses, in particular Hugo Boss, Tommy Hilfiger, Kate Spade, and Jimmy Choo. By product and channel, prescription frames remain the key positive driver across brands and markets, confirming the resilience of the product category in optical stores. In the quarter, our total sunglass business was supported by the new contribution coming from the e-commerce channel, which more than offset the soft-sum business and terminated business in Europe. As just highlighted by Angelo, our total online business soared in Q1, thanks in particular to blenders, Smith, and the sales growth through the internet pure players. Focusing on this in the next slide, today our total online business is three times bigger than it was in Q1 2019, moving from 4% of the group's total net sales to 6% in Q1 of last year to 13% in Q1 of 2021. The exponential increase of our D2C activities we recorded this year at plus 164% compared to Q1 2020 were clearly driven by blenders exceeding our expectations up 79% versus a year ago on a pro forma basis compared to its Q1 2020. To note, Blenders is now starting off well also in Canada and Australia, as the brand and its e-commerce started to expand out of the United States this year. As a reminder, Blenders was not in our perimeter in Q1 last year, as the acquisition was effective 1st of June 2020, while we already had a couple of months of Privé Réveau acquired on February 10th, 2020. On the other hand, this year our online sales continue to be nurtured by the significant growth of the Smith direct-to-consumer business, up around 63% at constant exchange rates, as well as by our sales through the internet pure players, up around plus 48% in the period. Moving to a snapshot of the sales performance in our four regions, as expected there was a continuation of the main dynamics recorded in the second half of 2020. particularly as far as the strong ongoing sales growth in the United States was concerned. In North America, our Q1 sales at constant exchange rates were up 53.8% versus Q1-20 and by 41.8% versus Q1-19. Indeed, a strong upside which materialized across all product categories and brands, which reflected the combination of a number of positive effects. from the just-mentioned contribution of Privé Revaux and blenders to the strong momentum of Smith products, both online and through the more traditional sports channel, and in particular its bike helmets business doubling and reaching 16% of the brand's business in the quarter, and to the outstanding business upside continuing in independent optical stores, chains, and department stores. In Q1 2021, the contribution of Privé Revaux and blenders to the North American growth versus 2020 trend and versus Q1 2019, was respectively plus 21% and plus 25%. In Europe, our business remained soft, down 5% at constant exchange rates versus 2020, and minus 17.8% versus Q1 2019. This was very much expected, as many markets remained constrained by the persisting retail restrictions and lack of tourist flows, which continued to penalize, in particular, the sunglass business in specialty channels like boutiques, department stores, and travel retail, but also in some of the biggest chains. Among our brands, this market context impacted above all Polaroid, a brand particularly exposed to the European sun markets. As previously highlighted, the prescription frames business was very solid for the majority of our brands also in Europe, growing compared to both Q120 and Q1 of 2019. In Asia Pacific, Q1 sales were down 10.8% at constant exchange rate compared to Q1-20 and minus 25.3% versus Q1-19. This was again not a surprise for us as the region is one of the most exposed to the travel retail business, a channel which was still high in Q1 last year, while it represented around 36% of the regional business in Q1-19, with the terminated licenses being roughly half of it. On the positive side, our sales in China and Australia confirmed the significant growth trajectory recorded in the second half of 2020, up respectively around 73% and 46% versus Q1 2020, and both significantly also above Q1 2019, proving thus the effectiveness of the portfolio strategy we have been implementing to build a more relevant and sustainable business in Asia Pacific. Finally, in the rest of the world, our Q1 business recorded a sharp acceleration across all main brands and product categories, up 40.6% versus Q1 of 20, and plus 26.5% versus Q1 2019, with a rebound that materialized in particular in the Middle Eastern markets, which had started to recover from the fourth quarter of last year. Let me now move to our economic and financial performance, slide seven. following from the highlights already provided by Angelo. In this first quarter, both our industrial and operating activities clearly benefited from the positive leverage provided to the period by the sales rebound, as well as from the cost discipline we continue to pursue alongside our ongoing structural savings plan. Structural savings totaled 3 million euros in the first quarter, on top of which we benefited of 2 million euros of COVID-19 related measures. Non-recurring costs were booked in the period mainly in relation to the announced closure starting from June of the Ormoz production plant in Slovenia. In Q1 of 2021, non-recurring costs totaled €16.2 million, €4.6 million at the gross profit level, mainly in depreciations for the impairment of manufacturing assets, and €12.4 million at the EBITDA level. In Q1 last year and in Q1 2019, These costs were 2.4 million and 1.1 million euros respectively. On a reported basis, Q1 gross profit stood at 126.6 million euros with a margin on sales of 50.4% compared to 49.5% in Q1 2020 and 52.7% in Q1 2019. On an adjusted basis, gross profit equaled 131.2 million euros or 52.2% of sales, up 19.9% compared to last year's gross profit, and plus 270 basis points compared to the gross margin. Compared to Q1 2019, it was substantially in line in value terms and 50 basis points below in terms of margin. Our industrial performance this year benefited from the better cost absorption provided for by the increase of production volumes, although still below Q1. one 2019 levels, and from the first structural savings on manufacturing and obsolescence, which in the period were partially offset by higher inbound transportation costs. Sales mix had two key opposing dynamics, the positive accretive growth of the D2C channel and the still negative brand product mix, mainly related to the exit of terminated licenses and to the higher weight of sport products. Below the gross profit line, our general selling and administrative expenses benefited from the cost containment actions we continue to implement and from the leaner overhead cost structure deriving from the last two years' structural savings. Clearly, the exit of terminated licenses means today a lower level of royalties and marketing contributions, and these positive impacts are now visible in our numbers. Q1 2021 reported EBITDA equaled €13.4 million, with a margin on sales at 5.3% compared to 1.5% last year and 7.6% in Q1 2019. On an adjusted basis, excluding the non-recurring costs of the period, EBITDA this year equaled €25.8 million, marking an exponential increase compared to the €5.8 million recorded in Q1 2020 and a meaningful improvement of plus 29.4%, compared to the 20 million recorded in Q1 2019. The adjusted EBITDA margin jumped to 10.3%, up 770 basis points compared to the 2.6% in Q1 of 2020, and up 220 basis points compared to the 8.1% recorded in Q1 2019. As always, in this quarterly trading update, we also provide you with our group net debt, which at the end of March, as anticipated by Angelo, stood substantially in line with the position reported at the end of December last year at €223.9 million or €181.3 million pre-IFRS 16. This reflected the positive economic results of the period and the ongoing strict control on net working capital where we continue to make progress on our cash collection activities as well as on the reduction of our inventories. I stop here and I hand it over to Angelo for his further remarks on the business evolutions after the closure of the quarter.

speaker
Angelo Trocchia
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Gerd. These weeks of April and May, we made further progress on our execution agenda. First of all, on our industrial restructuring plan. On April 14th, we reached a satisfactory agreement with the trade unions and the work council regarding the closure of the Olmos production site starting from June 2021. And I would like to take also this opportunity to thank all the parties involved who have been working with us in a constructive way to find very quickly a sustainable solution to minimize as much as possible the social impact of this difficult decision. As said, this is an additional step toward our broader strategy aimed at ensuring a solid and sustainable future for our group, right-sizing our supply chain to our new market reality. Today we have announced a new five years global licensing agreement for the design, manufacturing and distribution of dSquare, which goes in line with the direction of our brand's overall strategy and represents a great addition to our existing portfolio. dSquare is a global fashion brand founded in 1995 by Dean and Dan Caton and renowned for its uniqueness and creativity. and a good opportunity for us to grow in the fashion luxury segment with a distinctive and complementary brand. Our first optical and sunglass collection with the square will hit the market in January 2022 for the new spring summer season. Now to conclude our presentation, I would like to outline that in the month of April, sales trend continue to be strong. still driven by outstanding growth in the United States, the online business, and the progress of a number of emerging countries. The month was solid despite a still mixed picture in Europe, where retail restrictions and the uncertainties surrounding stores reopening in some countries instead prevented a material rebound in the region. Based on the current visibility on the order book, We expect our total net sales for the second quarter of 2021 to clearly normalize compared to the exceptional COVID-19 related decline recorded in the second quarter of last year, working hard with the objective to slightly surpass Q2 2019 at constant exchange rate. This concludes our presentation, and we are now ready to take your questions.

speaker
Barbara Ferrante
Director of Investor Relations

Excuse me, this is the conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove your question, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. We will pause momentarily while the participants join the queue. The first question is from Cedric Rossi of Brian Garnier. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Cedric Rossi
Analyst, Bryan Garnier & Co.

Yes, good evening to all of you. I have two small questions. The first one, Angelo, regarding your guidance. So you said that Q2 sales are expected to slightly exceed the 2019 levels. Can we expect the same magnitude of performance than in Q1? So in other words, 2% or 3% higher sales than in 2019? And my second question is regarding Europe. So I understand that April you were still negatively impacted by lockdowns across Europe. But could you give some color on the mood of independent opticians there? Are they ready to reorder and to prepare the sun peak season? And how do you anticipate the sun glass category to catch up in Q2? Thank you.

speaker
Angelo Trocchia
Chief Executive Officer

I will start from the second and then I leave to get to the first. I mean, Europe is a little bit patchy. I mean, first of all, the world is very patchy. You know, we have U.S., China going very well, Australia going very well. On the countryside, you know, if we look to Asia, Korea is really bad and other countries in the region are very bad. If you look to the rest of the world, some of the emerging Middle East performing very well, some other country in Latin America. So I think we need to get used to this patchy situation. The same situation, if you like, somehow is in Europe, where, as I think we see in UK, A strong rebound. So in the last two, three weeks, as soon as, you know, the lockdown situation has been improving, we see really a jump in the sales. If I look to Italy in the last weeks, we don't see the same trend of UK, but we see positive signs. On the other side, Germany and France and Spain are currently, we don't see any change any change in the trend specifically on the opticians let me say in this moment only the optician are the question mark of the optician is is the sun season going to start yes or no and can the people really travel travel within europe so i think they are positive to be honest because i think they are happy about the quarter one the big question is is going to be Because today we have optical and sun performing dramatically differently, with the optical going plus 20, the sun going down more than a high double digit. So is this trend going to change in the season to come? No one knows. But I mean, the atmosphere is positive. And so I think the mood, let me say, the mood is positive. Question mark is, is the rest of Europe, Germany, France, Spain, going to follow what we see in UK? Yes or no? That is the fundamental question. In general, I have to say, I know with ASTHO, I mean, the opticians are... are relatively positive and they really look to how fast can the vaccination process get started in Europe.

speaker
Gerd Kressler
Chief Financial Officer

I will build a little bit on what Angelo said. Clearly, geographically, the US should continue on track. In Europe, let's see how the situation evolves. Obviously, as you know, the second quarter for us is really the peak the peak period and the peak season of the year, and it will depend quite a bit on how sunglasses are going to evolve, not only in the regular trade, but I think also on the D2C, because now with blenders, with Prevair Evolve, we have also some new acquisitions that are playing quite a bit in sun and who have the main peak season in the quarter, and whether the further easing of restrictions here in Europe can also bring us some degree of sunglass reorders in the quarter. While on optical, I think the trends we've seen in Q1, they're going to continue. We don't see them slowing down. So I think at the end of the story, it's still a bit difficult to say exactly where we will end the quarter. The most important months in the quarter tend to be May and June. We're in the middle of May. At the end, I think we will be somewhere slightly above Q2 of 2019. The trend is continuing in the way they're going right now.

speaker
Cedric Rossi
Analyst, Bryan Garnier & Co.

Super. Very cute. Thank you. Thanks.

speaker
Barbara Ferrante
Director of Investor Relations

The next question is from Domenico Ghilotti of Equita. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Domenico Ghilotti
Analyst, Equita SIM

Good afternoon. A few questions. The first is a follow-up just on this European trend in the order. Do you have a sense of what is the initial inventory level in the trade that could have some pent-up effect on the orders if the opticians become more confident on the San Francisco? And the second question is on the North American market. On the opposite, we are seeing already a very, very strong momentum there. And I wonder what is your feeling on the sell-in compared to the sell-out? You have also a direct exposure, so you have now also some direct visibility on that. But in particular for the independent wholesale channel, I wonder if they are following a similar very strong path in sell-out. Last question, just housekeeping. Is there any significant contribution from discontinued brands in Q1 or in the first half of this year that we should take into account to extrapolate the trend for sales going forward?

speaker
Angelo Trocchia
Chief Executive Officer

I answered the first two questions and I'll leave the last one to Gerd. I mean, let's start from US. I think US is, I mean, honestly, we have two trends there. One is that our redesign, the trios, I mean, with the main focus on the trios, on the independents, You know, we have been reshaping our sales force and part of the results are related to that. So we have really dramatically increased the grip on the market. The other is the market is going well. So to be honest, in this moment, there is no stock in the Clios. I mean, they are selling and our analysis tell us that we are gaining share, share space, mainly toward some of the small players. So the market is going well, we are gaining shelf space, and we don't have any sign of, let me say, stock building. So selling and sell-out are aligned. If we go to Europe, I think that during these days, I mean, no t-shirt is increasing the stock. I think that starting from last year, they are learning to work in general with the lower level of stock. For me, the real question that we have and the opticians have is how much is the sun going to rebound. But to be honest, I mean, they are not pushing so much on the sun. So we see that they are more relaxed to buy optical. But to be honest, if the sun will come out and the season will pick up, we will see a fast rebound. But honestly, stock, they are very cautious. So I don't think there is, a stock building in the optician during these days. I mean, they are very cautious compared to the past. I'll leave it here to the last question.

speaker
Gerd Kressler
Chief Financial Officer

On the discontinued brands, we are having some closeout sales now in Q1 and Q2 on Dior. We will have some closeout sales in the second half year on Fendi, which, as you know, ends at the end of June. The contribution to top and bottom line has been fairly small in Q1, and I would expect something similar and still small also in Q2. And then, yeah, that's it.

speaker
Domenico Ghilotti
Analyst, Equita SIM

And if I may, maybe I have another question. Given the new license agreement, I was interested in understanding So what was the key element, the key selling point to get the license from a competitor?

speaker
Angelo Trocchia
Chief Executive Officer

I don't like to comment on the competitor. For me, the question is this. As you see, the way in which we look to the license is we are looking to global license and we are looking to a series of license which have relevant on some regional local market. And I think G-Square acts in some markets where we are very strong. So I think the fact that we are very strong in some of the markets which are important for G-Square and the fact that we are showing with other licenses that we have taken resident in the portfolio, the ability to let these licenses grow, I mean, these are the main reasoning behind the fact that G-Square is now with Safilo. So it's answering to a more regional need in regions or in countries where we are very strong. So we can really assure that the brand is going to grow significantly compared to the last year's performance.

speaker
Domenico Ghilotti
Analyst, Equita SIM

And can you share also the rollout for blenders in particular? And if there is any update on Privé Riveau, it was expected to be rolled out also.

speaker
Angelo Trocchia
Chief Executive Officer

Let me say, Privé Riveau has been launched mainly in GV. So, I mean, the rollout we were talking last time was GV Europe. And in Europe, I think we have commented before. So, let me say, we didn't choose the best moment in the sense that also if you look to the GV numbers, it's still obviously paying a little bit of a price of the situation in Europe. So, that was there. international strategy for pre-variable. For blenders, we have launched in Canada, we have launched in Australia. In both markets, it's performing very, very well. Obviously, now Australia goes in the low season, so to see the really pick up, we need to wait for quarter three, quarter four, but Canada is going very well, and we are evaluating more English speaker countries, let me say, in the second half of the year. But honestly, the results we are getting are honestly by far better than what we were expecting. Canada, because the consumer and the market is quite similar to U.S., and Australia, because I think Australia blenders may have a huge potential, is really fitting or is very close to some of the needs of the Australian consumer. And in the second half, we will extend to more English-speaker countries. Okay, thank you.

speaker
Barbara Ferrante
Director of Investor Relations

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your touchtone telephone. The next question is from Adam Crocker of Logbook Investments. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Adam Crocker
Analyst, Logbook Investments

Hi. I was hoping you could provide an update on the status of your IT platform, the sales platform. I know it's early, but I was wondering... If there's any update on that and the potential springs in the quarters and years ahead. Thank you.

speaker
Angelo Trocchia
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think the good thing is that we have finished the European rollout and how the platform is designed is allowing us to launch continuous new release. So we already launched two new releases, which is improving the consumer interface. And we keep adding more features. We have put now the full catalog with new pictures, with the eyewear dress, so it's not like the sort of aseptic picture we were putting before. We are now able also to load all the content and the advertising. And to be honest, the pick up from the customers in Europe is getting better and better. So we are at full speed, we have quite a tight roll out phases of different features from now till the year end and we are really going fast. And honestly the feedback from the customer is getting better and better on two topics. really number of order that the customer is playing because it's very easy, it's very straightforward. And the other big area is on the after sales. So instead of ringing to the customer care, you know, they can order spare parts and get all the information straight away. By the way, starting from Italy, from next week, we have also launched a chat so the customer doesn't need to talk anymore and give a ring by phone or sending in email. There is a very simple chat, so any customer can chat directly with the customer here. And Italy, where we have launched, we are launching during this day, I mean, the first feedback is enthusiastic because they found a very, very easy and modern way to interface with us. So going very well, honestly, and we are very fast. We have a full dedicated team. We are adding more resources. We have included in the team new resources with e-commerce knowledge and with data analytics knowledge because now we have really a sort of easy way to really understand what's going on by country, by brand, by customer. So it's going very, very well.

speaker
Adam Crocker
Analyst, Logbook Investments

Okay, and if I could just add on to that, as As it relates to the United States, is the rollout, the timing I know is a little later, but is the mechanics of the rollout similar to what you've done in Europe, and does it make it execution? Do you have learnings from Europe that you can transport to the United States?

speaker
Angelo Trocchia
Chief Executive Officer

I mean, that is the idea, what we are doing today. Also, if we are on two completely systems, because, you know, in Europe we have a subsystem with the Salesforce. So, I mean, the IT infrastructure are completely different compared to the one in the U.S. We are already now trying to take learning from what we are learning in Europe and try to adapt to the new system in the U.S. But obviously, only starting from 2022, we can really... end of 2022, we can really do the jump also in U.S. But there are a lot of learning and things that we are sharing. For example, I mean, we are introducing a chart system also in Smith, not really on the overall wholesale, but on the Smith brand. So we are trying to learn as much as possible and, you know, implement in U.S. Okay. Thank you. Thanks to you.

speaker
Barbara Ferrante
Director of Investor Relations

The next question is a follow-up by Mr. Domenico Gelotti of Equita. Please go ahead.

speaker
Domenico Ghilotti
Analyst, Equita SIM

I have a follow-up on the profitability, because basically in Q1 you reached the long-term target of 10% EBITDA margin. There is some seasonality, but Q2 is not far away in terms of sales, looking at your projection compared to Q1. And you have also the savings, structural savings, and the second part coming from the closure of hormones. So I wonder if you can share if there is something exceptional in Q1, if we can extrapolate from that a stronger base for 2021. So if you can comment on the profitability, it was very, very strong.

speaker
Gerd Kressler
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think a couple of comments. I think on the one side, clearly we've had a very strong top-line performance. We started seeing a recovery of the gross margin. And then Q1, let me say, is not necessarily the quarter in which we invest the heaviest, because on the one hand, the peak consumption period for sunglasses, which is where we invest more of our marketing, is typically in the second quarter of the year. And with a number of lockdowns, especially in Europe, clearly we have been a bit more cautious on demand-driving investments. But it is true that we were quite positively surprised by the EBITDA results of Q1. I think then taking into account the dynamics of the investments, as I was just saying in Q2, we should have a good level of profitability also in the second quarter. And then the game for the year will obviously be played in the second half of the year. And I think there is still, at least to me, a little bit difficult to predict exactly the business context, how exactly will Europe recover, open up, how will the summer and the reorders from the summer be. The U.S., I mean, it's going very strongly for a number of reasons, but also last year in H2, the U.S. was strong. Last year, Privé and Blenders were new. This year, we are anniversarying them. So there is some... let me say, perimeter effect that is going to be key for the second half of the year. And, you know, in the next couple of months, I think when we close the first semester, we'll be in a better position to give an outlook as to where we see the second half. But certainly it's a very strong start.

speaker
Domenico Ghilotti
Analyst, Equita SIM

What about the cost? So on the cost item that you have more under control, so the savings, the social savings, how much should we see in the second half compared to, say, last year or this year, so compared to the first half?

speaker
Gerd Kressler
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think, I mean, on the overheads, let me say, let's split a little bit overheads and the cost of goods sold. On the overheads, we have done a lot of the saving, as you remember, in 2019 and in 2020. We have a portion still in 2021, and I think the running rate that we see in Q1 is something that we will also expect to keep going forward, at least for Q2, and then we obviously start anniversaring some of the actions that we took in the middle of the pandemic last year. The bigger contribution in 2021 that we see should really come from the cost of goods sold savings, because as we were saying in the full year results of 2020, clearly in 2020, we were not really able to realize a lot of the cost of goods sold savings because we were sitting on closed factories and all kinds of social tools. So this year, our expectation is to be around 10 to 15 million euros of cost of goods sold savings in the full year, which would constitute, let me say, a good portion of the 25 that we announced in the strategic plan back in 2019. And I think so far the running rates are bringing us there. The watch out, I think, on the COGS is not really in the COGS, but the watch out is a bit on the logistics costs. I mean, I'm sure you will see this across all the industries. Transportation rates, be it air freight or sea freight from Asia to Europe to U.S. are very high in the moment. So we are working on some additional opportunities on other COGS items in order to bring home that range of savings.

speaker
Domenico Ghilotti
Analyst, Equita SIM

Are you planning or have you already launched some price increases also to offset the inflation coming from logistics and part from aromatizers?

speaker
Gerd Kressler
Chief Financial Officer

I mean, we are looking at price and mix always holistically. I don't want to comment on pricing action specifically. But yes, I mean, these are all considerations that we don't just look at cost reduction, but we also look at at our gross-to-net sales and see how can we get some improvements there in order to help mitigate some of those upsides.

speaker
Domenico Ghilotti
Analyst, Equita SIM

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Barbara Ferrante
Director of Investor Relations

Thanks. The next question is from Marco Bacaglio of Kepler. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Marco Bacaglio
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes, good afternoon. I hope not to have you repeating some things because I connected late. But question one is whether your online business today is As it is, it is a creative on the profitability at consolidated level, let's say at EBDA level. The second question is if you have an estimate of what could be the one-off costs for the whole year, what we have seen is already including all the costs of closure of a plant in Slovenia. And the third one is whether you have any updates on your shareholder loan, the very expensive one in terms of potential of refinancing.

speaker
Gerd Kressler
Chief Financial Officer

Okay, I think on the first question, the answer is yes. So the D2C business is accretive to the total profitability of the group, so we have, I think, a solid double-digit margin on that part of the business. As we were saying also previously, clearly there's a different dynamic. It's a very high gross margin business as it goes directly to the consumer, and then there is higher marketing expenses on the other side. But yes, on the bottom line, it's accretive. On the second question regarding non-recurring costs, I think we should be looking at more or less 20-25 million for the full year. All of this is part of the 50 million framework that we provided back in 2019, so we do expect that in this year we will conclude the biggest portions of the restructurings at the time of this year. Obviously, in Q1, we had 16. Now, in the 16, we should say that there's been about 4.6 that were linked to asset write-downs. I mean, it's driven by Slovenia. We've basically taken down the book value of the factory to what we think we can actually realize in the market in the sale, while the other 12 million are costs that are more directly linked with restructuring activities and severances. So, let me say they are really cash costs. The third question was on the shareholder loan, which indeed is expensive. We have now basically drawn the first tranche of 30 million in February already of last year. We have drawn the remainder of the loan in June. And clearly, on the back of better results that we have been able to deliver in Q1, be it both on the bottom line but also on the cash flow, I think now is going to be a moment for us to look at whether there could be a more supportive market for us to take care of the shareholder loan. But there is no plan in the immediate, let me say.

speaker
spk00

Thank you.

speaker
Barbara Ferrante
Director of Investor Relations

Gentlemen, Mr. Arante, there are no more questions at this time.

speaker
Angelo Trocchia
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much. Thanks very much. Thanks to have been with us. Have a nice evening. Bye-bye.

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