Selvaag Bolig ASA

Good morning. Welcome to the presentation for the second quarter of 2020 for Selvåg Bolig. My name is Rolf Thorsen, and I will, together with Sverre Målvik, our CFO, present the results for you. We are on the web mainly today, but we have actually a few listeners in the room as well, and it's nice to see people. And to address you who are here, I'll try to make this a good and lively presentation. Thank you. We will start with me talking about the main points and sales, and then Sverre will go into operations and financial numbers, and also some analysis around that. I will come back and talk about the market. At the end of the session, we will take a Q&A session. You will be able to send in questions on the web, and we will answer them after the presentation is over. Main points. This is a quarter that has been marked by relatively few deliveries. And when we take that into account, we think it is a strong result we deliver. There are good project results that are behind. Sverre will come back and say more about this afterwards. After we had a low sale, or rather the market was low in March and April, there has been a normalization via an upgrade in May and June, and now we are open and have a good sale again. In total, we are pleased with our sales in the second quarter, but it is of course affected by the Covid-19 situation. Based on good results, and not least good future prospects, the board has decided to spend 3 kroner per share for the results we achieved in the first half of 2020. A little more about key figures. As I said, there have been few evaluations in the quarter. This means that we have a small turnover to divide our majority on. This, and a number of other special circumstances that I will go into a little more detail about, affect our results. But the main figures are as follows. The IFRS turnover in the quarter is 436 million kroner, and a adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.3%. And for half a year, 645 million kroner in turnover, and 29.9% in EBITDA margin. It's a bit special, the last one. This is due to the fact that there have been many so-called TS's, or associated companies, that have been approved for half a year. For the NGAP results, there are 803 million kroner in revenue in the quarter, with a NGAP EBITDA margin of 19.1. and a half-year revenue of 1560 million kroner, with a margin of 20.1%. Again, what really stands out here is the IFRS margin for the first half-year, which is characterized by There are quite a few relevant companies that are involved. I will go into this a bit more, so that it is explained properly. A little about sales. As I said at the beginning, we are pleased with the sales under the recommended conditions. The recommended conditions are that the Norwegian society was closed down in March, and that affected sales in March and April. We had a recovery period in May and June, and we are up and running in July and August. July and August are of course not included in these numbers here. But in total, we are satisfied with sales in Q2. We see a sales value of almost 700 million kroner per quarter, which is lower than in previous quarters, but not so much. When we look at the situation, we think it is a good result. The same applies to the number. It's also the case that, as I mentioned, sales are now up at a very good pace again, and we also have several exciting sales starts in the coming period, which I will come back to at the end and describe a little about that. We also see a small decline in the price for sold units, from 5.1 million to 4.9 million. We should not put such a high price on it, but it underlines that even in this market, which is becoming hot, we are a supplier that delivers housing to the most people. And we do not make the waves, to put it that way. If we look at the rolling twelve figures, we see a lot of the same picture. Some of them in the end, influenced by the sales so far this year, and especially in the second quarter, with a decline in sales. in value for almost 3 billion kroner, and on the rolling sale of units, down to 743 units for the quarter. But in total, as I said, we are satisfied with the sale, and we are in a good pace, which actually promises good for the coming period. Then Sverre will take over and dive a bit deeper into the results. I'll be back with Marked later.

Yes. If we look at the operation first, we had 104 finishes in the quarter and 31 start-ups, which means that unity in production has fallen down to 1,357 units. Of this, we had sold 78% at the beginning of the quarter, which is a high sales rate, 2% higher than in the previous quarter. And 99% of it is in Stor Oslo. To comment a little on this with volume and unit production, it is of course the case that we put out a project in Markedø, then we sell 60% before we start building it. And when sales have been as they have been now with COVID, and we are down 300, In six months, it will affect the speed of the company and the start-ups. It takes longer time before we get started, and then the speed is lowered. How far down we go is a bit uncertain, but we guided a bit. I had a small comment on this in connection with the sales report at the end of Q2, that we could go down to between 11 and 1200. But depending on the market in the future, it can still happen. Now we see, as Rolf was saying, that the market is pretty good, especially given Corona. But we must also have the regions with us. Only 1% of the production in Stavanger, Bergen, Trondheim and Stockholm. So we are dependent on getting started again, and that will come back to Rolf later on. We have a lot of exciting things happening there, fortunately. Among other things, Bergen has finally been able to regulate some agreements. And I must also point out, while I'm at it, This is not our fault. We put it out, try to sell it. We do everything we can. And then we would have appreciated if the municipalities around the world did a little more, so that we could regulate the income much faster. It takes now four years, for example, in the average in Oslo to get regulated income. And of course, it takes time. So we hope that this will get better, but how far down we will go before we go up again, I don't know. If it's 1,200, 1,250, 1,150, it can be that low there. And maybe better, we'll see what happens at the start of our sales in the autumn. But we will get back to the old levels, I am confident about that. If we look at the future results, we guided last quarter at a little over 700, now we are at 691, with 20 units, another 20 that have been pushed over in Q1. Not much drama around that. All in all, we have been very little affected in terms of progress in the projects of corona compared to what we thought could happen. So it is actually predictable. We do not expect that there will be any further delays. 84% of this was sold, and the sales this year was sold at the beginning of the quarter, and through sales so far in Q3, we are much higher than that now. If we look at the results after IFRS, we can look at the transcripts in the newspaper, and then this is misunderstood. It's not so strange, because we now have a large number of over-delivered units through JVs, or cooperating companies. What happens is that the results are taken in according to the so-called one-capital method, so they come right into the bottom line, so they do not affect the revenues. And then there is the assumption that the revenues will be very low. That is not entirely true. And the margins will be very high, so the picture will be wrong. We will go through the IFRS figures formally now first, and then we will go into something that has changed the report to include pro forma. PNL, which shows proportionally consolidated amounts, which gives a much better picture. We delivered 122 units in the quarter, 36 of them from JVs, which gives an income of 436. Costs of 337, 14 million of which are financial costs related to these delivered units. The other costs this time are a bit interesting. They are two million higher than in the previous period. Seven of those millions are due to a salary re-periodization, which changes the principle of how we manage Revenues for bonuses, among other things, and how we manage the share-saving program, the costs around the share-saving program in the company. It will have an effect on 7 million on the bottom line. Or other costs. It will be in this quarter and the next, or in the next three quarters. I would say this plus two hours. Then it is taken again. As I said, it's just a matter of periodization. We report an adjusted EBITDA, and we do this to correct these financial costs, which are defined as project costs after IFRS. Adjusted EBITDA at 75 million, which gives a margin of 17%, which is very misleading. I will come back to that in the next slide. The result per share is 52 euros. Just a general comment on that. We are pleased with the few units, and not least the most of the units are from Trondheim and Stavanger. The market has been flooded with offers, and Stavanger doesn't need to say anything about it. Everyone has been through an oil crisis, so they have managed to deliver a decent margin despite the oil crisis, and they haven't written a single krona on their thumbs. It shows how the market works, and how our model works, not least. We have set up a pro-forma report to show how the JBL collaboration project would have been if we had proportionally consolidated revenues and costs. These 122 units give 670 million, which reflects the value much better. The project is also at 5.34, and we end up with a adjusted EBITDA of 89 million, with a margin of 13%, which is more correct. The earnings budget is the same. This becomes even more significant if we look at the half-year, where almost half of the units that have been delivered so far this year are coming from cooperating companies. So here we only have pro forma, or where we have proportionally consolidated our ownership. The revenues are the same as last year, 1.254, 60 million lower than last year. And the adjusted EBITDA at 240 million, until the margin is 19%. The result per share for the first half year corrected for the UP transaction is 1.59 kroner, which is the value creation. We will come back to this later when it comes to exchange rates. This quarter may reflect better than ever. I often say that the ongoing calculation method represents and reflects much better value creation in our company, or in our industry. IFRS takes 100% of the results by delivering the housing to the customer, while the current calculation method is a function of sales and completion. So you take out linear income and costs in the project from the construction start to completion. So we have a turnover of 803 million kv, and a margin of 19%. or around 20% if you correct for these wage periodization effects. And we are very pleased with that. If we look at 12 months and so on, we have a yearly rate of about 3.3 billion, and a margin of 22%. In terms of cash loans, we had an incoming balance of SEK 771 million. Negative cash loan from the company at SEK 223 million, as a result of high production activity and low deliveries. Contant stream from the investment side at a positive 157. This is exchanges from JV. and cash flow from the financing side, which is negative due to the exchange rate and a slight increase in net income of 27 million. This results in an outstanding balance of 679 million. If we look at the balance, we have a bookkeeping equity of 25.20 euros per quarter, which corresponds to an equity share of 39%. That is high, and perhaps higher than what many think we should have. And we have been and are a bit prudent and careful through the corona time. We did not know how this would be carried out. I will come back to that later. Other changes. The stock market is down by 223 million. I will come back to that later. The cash is down by 93, as we were talking about. And the customer orders are down by 18 million to a very low level. Actually quite easy for the management department, but we have already delivered two units in a quarter, and keep them down. Pre-payment from the customers results in 303 million and other short-term non-rentable yields. If we look at our warehouse, Tomte Bank Up to 26 million, which is actually the option bonus for the B portfolio for UP. Wares in work up to 223, which is high building activity and relatively few deliveries, as I said. Then it becomes like this. And it is also a consequence. of Covid, that they tried to take back the ferry that took leave early and so on, on the construction sites, which has gone a little extra. The finished goods are down to 110-11 million. Very low, very few unsold finished goods in relation to our size, and we have very good control over that. It is almost record low. It is also safe to have in a slightly uncertain time, if nothing else. If we look at the global structure, High building activity. We have increased our building loans by about 300 to 1,623. The empty loans are the same. These are the empty loans that are still in our balance. Unregulated properties that we have not sold to the U.P. And then there are the obligations to the U.P. because we have taken out some interest since last time. The total interest rate is at the bottom of 2 billion, about 200 up compared to last quarter. The margin we get is basically the same. There hasn't been any big effect of COVID on that for so long at least. If we look at the return on equity in the quarter, we are at 20%, without taking into account the UP transaction. Including that, we are at over 50%. I thought I would talk a little more about it. I have talked about it many times, but it is also very important. If I don't take it, there will be a lot of questions about it. And that's the big question that analysts are all wondering about. Where does the margin end in our company? What happens is that the delta, as a result of UP, is illustrated here. I have mentioned many times that we buy Tomte at 12%, which means that our end prognosis at the time of investment is 12%. And now, after the U.P., it will, due to slightly higher financial costs, go down to 10%. This is already old information. Since the interest rate is so low now, the delta will actually be lower. And the value creation through the project. Our value chain is the same. The project managers are exactly the same when it comes to development, when it comes to contracting and adjusting the price through the construction period. We will end up at 18% now. We are still stuck at that. We are much higher than that. I have said for several years that it is not sustainable. It is not either. It is not normal. You can not expect to be able to do it in a market You have to expect that competitors or other things will have an effect on it, but that hasn't happened yet. So we are still high in the margin. But where it will tend to go down, whether it will go down to 20 or under 20 or 18 or whatever it is, we'll have to wait and see. It will of course depend on the market and how it develops. But we have to expect that it will go down. Then there is the exchange rate. We had a result in the first half of the year at 1.59 kroner per share. We divide that by 1.50 kroner, and then we divide that by the saved 1.5 kroner that we spent last time. We were conservative and held back 1.50 kroner from the exchange rate from the second half of the year last year. because of the corona-caused caution. And we are now distributing it. We are distributing an exchange rate of 3 kroner, which we think is good. Some may think that we could have distributed it even more, but we think it is good and conservative at the moment. We have a solid balance, and we will continue to have it, but we will also make sure that it becomes a good exchange rate for our owners. Vi ser forresten også veldig lyst på fremtiden, som Rolf skal gå litt inn på nå, med salgstarter og markut.

Takk for det, Sverre. I'll talk a bit about the market. The market has surprised quite a few. When we went into lockdown in March-April, there was a lot of talk about the housing market. Some talked about 25% down, some talked about 10% down, and some talked about zero growth, etc. What I believe, or we believe, is that a lot of undervalues the effect of the balance in supply and demand. This is a topic we have talked about for a while, and we also want to talk about it this time. We believe that the most important driver in the housing market is the balance between supply and demand. This graph, or this picture, This is an important picture. I will just comment a little on the numbers, or the height of the stacks and so on. These are numbers that are without students and senior residents, so that is the part of the market that is relevant for us to work in. In the period from 2012 to 2019, there were 3,000 units completed per year in the Oslo market. Prognosesenteret har prognostisert at behovet framover er cirka 4,5 tusen enheter i året. Vi kan se selv på de røde stablene ytterst, så ser dere hva som faktisk kommer til å bli levert. In 2020 and 2021, there is a small E behind the numbers, which means it is a forecast. But that forecast is becoming very safe for 2020. Or for 2020 it is completely safe, and for 2021 it is also completely safe. And in 2022 it will also become quite safe. So we see that it will be completed in much fewer homes than those that Those who live in Oslo and want to move to Oslo indicate that there is a need. Of course, 4,500 new houses will not be sold in Oslo in 2021-2022, precisely because the offers are not there. Those houses do not exist. And that is a result of the fact that it is regulated too little and implemented too few projects. The result is that we get a so-called ringer in the water effect, that the need that is not reached in Oslo, it plays over or runs over the municipalities around Oslo, and we get pressure also in the municipalities around Oslo. It is not a... An effect that we think will come, is an effect that we already see is there. A good example is the development that we have stood for at Lønnskog. During the period we have been up here, the housing prices have doubled at Lønnskog. Lønnskog is about to become part of Oslo. It is a strange market. where you can see Oslo, Lørne, Jensjø, that area there, is a market, and then you get Groruddalen with a dump, and then you come back up to Lørneskog. An interesting effect, actually. But the point with the slide is to illustrate that there is, and there will be, an imbalance in relation to supply and demand. It will drive prices in Oslo, and it will drive prices in the area around Oslo. We have been talking about this for a long time. It's just to look at what's happening around us, and we see that that is actually the effect as well. I 2019, så vokste Oslos befolkning med 12 000 mennesker. If we include the fact that 47% of the households in Oslo are single households, then we can begin to calculate what the real housing needs are. And that Prognosesenter's 4,500 homes are not too heavy, to put it that way, I think we can underline that. Last year, about 1,900 new homes were offered in the market. Again, just to underline the imbalance there. At the beginning of the year, or at the end of 2019, 1736 homes were sold in Oslo. There have only been 399 new units in the first half of the year, while there have been almost 968 units. So, the stock storage on the new housing side has been sinking over the past half of the year. I underline again the effect that we have to remember. This is a period where we have had corona, where there have been few sales, especially in April, mid-March and large parts of April. So the inventory goes down. If we take a look at the former bus station in Østfold, this is actually the old Akershus. We see a little of the same effect. There is less supply than what is taken out of the market, and the inventory in Akershus also goes down. What is interesting to see for the other big cities, Bergen, Trondheim and Stavanger, is that the output of new homes is almost as big as the output of new homes in Oslo. while Oslo has a market, a total market, that is three to five times bigger, maybe four times bigger, than the market in these cities. And that says a little about the pressure in the different markets, and it underlines that it is Oslo that is the engine in the Norwegian housing market right now. If we look at the details, We see a slightly different picture of Bergen, Trondheim and Stavanger, but quite flat in relation to the supply and demand balance when it comes to Bergen and Trondheim, and a little supply surplus in Stavanger. In addition, in Stavanger we see that there are quite a few projects that are in the pipeline that people are ready to bring into the market if the market were to improve. Når det er sagt, så er det for så vidt også interessant å se at vi har faktisk solgt litt i Stavanger i dette kvartalet. Og det ser for så vidt ikke så negativt på det. If we look at the used housing market, we see that there is a high level of turnover in the number of units. In terms of size, 10,000 units. Maybe more than that, which was sold in the first half of 2020 for Oslo. And a warehouse that has a slightly different tendency on the used housing side. So here we are also talking about a supply that is larger, or a demand that is larger than the supply. And for the other markets, Bergen, we see about 3,000 homes, 3,500 homes that are sold, will then be compared to 10,000 in Oslo, as I said. And goods storage is also a bit of a trend here, but not a very strong trend, really. Trondheim, occupied by a size of 2,500 homes in the used market, is also a bit larger than the offer. And for Stavanger, we also see that the stock market is going down, even though it is also a little bit down in terms of revenue. But we see revenue at a high level. We had a little discussion yesterday in our leading group, where we see that... The market for Oslo is almost independent of how the consumer housing market develops. It is interesting to see how independent the consumer housing market is. That housing is a necessity. It's not just an investment for people. It's actually something you need. It's actually quite far down towards the bottom of the Maslow's pyramid, to have access to a good home. Price development, even in July, we see that the Oslo part has a price increase of 5%, and 7% and 9% on June. in Trondheim, Stavanger and Bergen. A strong price development in the past six months. And isolated for July, there was a lot of pressure in the press around the price development in July, where normally there is a nominal decline, but this year it is generally prices through July, specifically over the entire line, with a small drop from Trondheim. But a strong market over the entire line. And then comes what might be a bit fun. It is the plan, or what will happen in the half year we are now in. We have planned four start-ups in the course of this half year, and this is all together on projects that we have strong faith in. Skårebyen Plus, up on Skårer, Lønnskog, It is a plus project, which is also in the name. A project called Service Departments, which we have been working with for many years and have very good experience with. We also have a lot of previous interest for the start of the business. It will be in September, and we have great expectations for it, considering that it will be a drag. What is also fun about the Skårebyen project is that we have more. It is a large project, and we have new sales and construction lines that we can fill in afterwards, which we sell out and sell well on that project. The next one is Sandsli 360. It is located in Sandsli in Åsen, not far from Flesland in Bergen. It is also a slightly corresponding project. This is the first of three sales trends, and it includes two construction trends. This is the first sales trend. We also have two other projects in the same area. So this is also an area where if we get a good start, and this also shows the interest in the front, then we will be able to keep up and keep a good pace at Stanselighåsen for a long time to come. And this also marks a very important milestone for us. It's been a long time since we've had a sales start in Bergen, and we've been stuck in the regulatory cycle for a long time, and finally we're through with that and have a project, and will get more projects in the market in Bergen in the coming period. Lønnskog Stasjonsby is a new construction line that we are also planning to start. Lønnskog Stasjonsby has become a very important reference for us, a very important project and an engine that goes and goes and goes. A new sales start will also drive us forward, we think. And then there is Langhus, a project we have called Langhus 1405, where we are also starting to build on the first construction lines there, and we will lay out a new construction line now in the course of 2020. Langhus has sold surprisingly well, so we will probably be faster in the market with this trend than we originally thought. So, in total, a solid pipeline for another six months, and Borge will have an exciting continuation for our company. I will try to sum up a bit, Ranne. The year until now, we entered 2020 in what we can call a normal market. We considered it to be a market that was on the even side. which favoured an actor like us, who is a skilled designer, if we are to be a bit unbecoming. And then we got COVID-19 in March, which absolutely has affected sales in April and May especially. And then we see that when we now move in, or are actually well into the second half of the year, we see a pretty clear improvement in the market. And it is especially Oslo, as I said, that is the driver in relation to that. In the short term, there are still uncertainties. Mitigating measures in relation to this uncertainty are that the interest rate is still low, and that the credit restrictions that have been lifted are still being lifted, and that is of course part of raising the market, even though, if we look at the long picture, there is supply and demand. We claim that over and over again, there is supply and demand, the balance between those that are the most important, and the long-term need for housing, in the areas, or in the markets we are in, is rising. We are in a growing market, and we will serve that growing market. That is what we will see in the future. And it's not like it stops with these four sales starts that we're going to have in this half year. We have exciting projects in our pipeline in the future as well. You can see some of them in the pictures below. We're at Fornebo, we're at Lønnskog, We are on Bjerke. We are on Skårer. Selvvåg Bolig's strategy is stuck. We are a homemaker for most people. That's where the big market is. That market is less affected by swings than other markets. It gives us a robustness in our business model. We focus on... i de urbane områdene på de store byene. Vi har allerede levert 60 000 boliger, og vi kommer til å fortsette å levere mange tusen boliger til i de neste 70 årene. Det med å være en boligbygger for folk, det å være en områdeutvikler, det å være en byutvikler, det å være en samfunnsutvikler, ligger i selvvågsgener, og de generne lever videre i beste velgående. To sum up, few deliveries impact the results, but if we eliminate that factor, it is a strong underlying result, good project margins, a good sale, and a good sales development is perhaps the most important thing to say about that. And we, based on good results, and not least on great faith in the future, have decided to share an exchange rate of 3 kroner per share for the first half of 2020. Now we are ready for Q&A, or questions and answers. So we will turn to Rådighet for a hug.