Clariant AG

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Clarion's second quarter, first half year results 2024 conference call and live webcast. I am Sandra, the chorus call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and 1 on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and 0. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Andreas Schwarzwälder, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Sandra, and ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. My name is Andreas Schwarzwälder, and it's my pleasure to welcome you to this call. Joining me today are Conrad Kaiser, Clarion CEO, and Bill Collins, Clarion CFO. Conrad will start today's call with providing a summary of the second quarter developments followed by Bill, who will guide us through the group's financials for the period. Conrad will then conclude with the outlook for the full year 2024 and the medium term. There will be a Q&A session following our presentation. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. I would like to remind all participants that the presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to risk and uncertainty. Listeners and readers are therefore encouraged to refer to the disclaimer on slide two of today's presentation. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. A replay and transcript of the call will be available on the investor relations section of the Clarion website. Let me now hand over to Conrad to begin the presentation.

Thank you, Andreas. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you all for joining this call. In the second quarter of 2024, we generated sales of over 1 billion Swiss francs, a 3% organic decrease in local currency versus the second quarter of 2023. Our top-line performance was impacted by an expected decline in catalysts, offsetting growth in chemicals and absorbents and additives. Reported EBITDA in the quarter was 166 million Swiss francs, resulting in a 15.7% EBITDA margin versus 16.1% in the prior year, which included a 62 million Swiss francs gain from the quads divestment. Excluding the quads gain, we delivered a strong underlying margin improvement of more than 500 basis points. This positive development stems from the successful implementation of our leaner, customer-focused operating model and continued execution of our performance improvement programs. As a result, we benefited from improved operating leverage as we achieved growth in care chemicals and absorbents and adhesives, while maintaining pricing discipline. I'm also pleased with our improved cash generation in the first half of the year, resulting from higher underlying earnings. I continue focus on cashflow optimization through active working capital management and CapEx discipline. We recorded operating cashflow of 112 million Swiss francs compared to 78 million Swiss francs in the first half of 2023. reflecting a free cash flow conversion of 42% for the last 12 months, which is in line with our median term target of around 40%. Looking at our top line development in more detail, in the second quarter, we delivered sales of 1.056 billion Swiss francs, representing a 3% organic decrease. with no impact from scope or currency. Pricing decreased by 3% as flat pricing in catalyst was offset by a 4% decline in care chemicals, primarily due to formula-based pricing adjustments, and a 3% decline in absorbents and additives. Our priority remains to defend pricing in a deflationary environment, as we experienced a 10% year-on-year decline in raw material costs in the second quarter. Volumes were flat overall, as strong growth in care chemicals of 7% and adsorbents and additives of 5% was offset by the expected year-on-year volume decline of 18% in catalysts, against a very high comparison base. In fact, the second quarter of 2023 was an exceptionally strong quarter for the catalyst business. While we continue to see slight improvement in output and capacity utilization rates, uncertainties over underlying demand remain. The European Chemical Industry Council, CEFIC, has reported that a strong recovery in 2024 remains unlikely. given most of the chemical industry's downstream users continue to show downward trends, and order books still reflect limited demand. The European manufacturing PMI in July was 45.6, and thus continued to trend well below 50. S&P Global projects flat chemical production in Europe in 2024 versus 2023. In China, the largest chemical market, S&P Global, expects chemical production in China to grow by 5% in 2024, fueling global growth of chemical production of 3.2%. However, the manufacturing PMI in China dropped slightly below 50 to 49.5 in June. According to the American Chemistry Council, chemical production in the U.S. increased by 0.7% year-on-year in June. The manufacturing PMI in the U.S. also dropped below 50 to 48.5 in June. S&P Global projects a 0.5% increase of chemical production in North America in 2024. The International Data Corporation, IDC, expects global notebook and PC production to return to growth of 5% in 2024 compared to a minus 11% in 2023. For smartphone shipments in 2024, the IDC is forecasting growth of 3.5% compared to a 4% decline in 2023. There was no impact from Scope on our year-on-year sales, as the acquisition of Lucas Meyer Cosmetics offset the divestment of the quads business. Moving on to our performance by geography, sales in the Americas declined by 1% organically, where strong growth in chemicals and a slight improvement in absorbance and additives were offset, by lower sales in catalysts. In Europe, Middle East, and Africa, sales were flat organically versus the second quarter 2023, with volumes up in all business units, compensating for lower pricing in chemicals and absorbents and additives. Pricing in catalysts was flat. Sales in Asia Pacific were down 8% organically, In China, sales were down 6% organically as the project cycle driven decline in catalysts more than offset strong double digit growth in chemicals and adsorbents and additives. The latter benefiting from the new flame retardant plant as customer qualification progressed. In terms of profitability, reported EBITDA in the second quarter decreased by 5% year-on-year to 166 million Swiss francs. Last year's figure was positively impacted by a 62 million Swiss francs gain from the quads disposal. Excluding this gain, the underlying EBITDA increased by 47%, with a margin of 15.7%, over 500 basis points higher than the prior year's underlying margin of 10.4%. This improvement was supported by growth in care chemicals and absorbance and additives, which drove operating leverage as we continue to execute on our performance improvement programs, delivering 9 million Swiss francs in the second quarter. A 10% decline in raw materials and an improvement of 8 million Swiss francs in the negative operational impact from the sun liquid bioethanol activities also contributed to the positive margin development. Moving on to our strategic priorities. On April 2nd, 2024, we completed the acquisition of Lucas Meyer Cosmetics. With this acquisition, we are taking another significant step forward in our purpose-led growth strategy, further strengthening our position as a true specialty chemicals company. We are pleased to confirm that the integration and business combination remains well on track. The second quarter 2024 operational performance of Lucas Meyer Cosmetics was in line with our business plan. with 23 million Swiss francs despite the challenging environment. Together with our new team members, we are excited for the growth opportunities that lie ahead as we combine our personal care ingredients portfolio with Lucas Meyer Cosmetics to leverage a leading position in the high-value cosmetic ingredient space. In the second quarter, we also saw several key developments related to Sunliquid. The operational restructuring and downsizing are well on track. We have reached an agreement to sell the Podari plant assets. We sold our Straubing demonstration plant. We signed a sub-rent agreement for the Planex site and successfully terminated multiple contractual relationships. Given these developments, we now expect the financial impact to be 20 million Swiss francs lower than originally anticipated. We continue to deliver on our performance improvement progress with 9 million Swiss franc savings achieved in the second quarter. We are well on track to achieve our increased savings target of 175 million Swiss francs by 2025. Variants, purpose-led growth strategy, reflects our ambition to create value with innovative chemistry and a focus on sustainability, putting our customers, employees, and the planet at the center of all our activities. Our talented people turn this ambition into action with exciting, innovative solutions as highlighted here. The growing concern over the environmental and health impacts of PFAS chemicals particularly PTFE, will drive a significant shift in the coatings and packaging industries. For the last 18 months, we have been launching a comprehensive portfolio of PTFE-free solutions for metal coatings, inks, and plastic packaging applications. Our new offerings provide market-ready solutions that match the performance of their PTFE-containing predecessors while enhancing sustainability. Most recently, in June, we successfully launched a PTFE-free processing aid for packaging polymers at China Plus in Shanghai. These PFAS-free editors contain no inorganic content or silicone components and preserve high performance while meeting current and anticipated regulatory requirements. With that, I now hand over to Bill for further details on our business performance in the second quarter and our group performance in the first half.

Thank you, Conrad, and good afternoon, everyone. I will now discuss our second quarter development by business unit, starting with care chemicals. Air chemical sales increased by 3% organically in local currency and by 4% in quitting scope. Volumes increased by 7% driven by industrial applications, personal and home care, oil services, and mining solutions, offsetting declines in crop solutions and base chemicals. Sequentially, volumes were lower following the end of the aviation season. Pricing was 4% lower year on year, primarily due to formula-based adjustments linked to raw material prices. Sequentially, pricing was flat. By segment, we recorded strong double-digit organic growth in industrial applications and mid-single-digit growth in personal and home care, oil services, and mining solutions. Base chemicals and crop solutions both declined double-digit. Reported EBITDA of 98 million Swiss francs resulted in a 17.3% margin versus 24.5% in the same period last year when the margin was positively impacted by the gain from the Quad's disposal. Excluding this, EBITDA before exceptional items was 100 million Swiss francs with a corresponding margin of 17.7% versus 14.2% in Q2 2023. The strong profitability development was supported by the positive impact of volume growth on operating leverage and lower raw material costs. Now, I will provide a more detailed update on the acquisition of LucasMeyer Cosmetics. We are pleased that the integration and business combination is well on track. As Conrad mentioned, performance of 23 million Swiss francs sales in Q2 was on track with our business plan. In particular, Lucas Meyer Cosmetics recorded good performance in China and with indie brands, while business was softer in Europe and with some order shifts to Q3. Underlying profitability was also as expected before the impact of the IFRS-related inventory revaluation, which negatively impacted profitability by around 5 million Swiss francs. We expect a similar impact in Q3. In the second quarter, we booked 464 million Swiss francs in goodwill, 299 million Swiss francs of intangible assets, and 3 million Swiss francs of direct transaction costs. Finally, we successfully refinanced our acquisition bridge facility at a substantially lower interest rate than originally expected via a dual tranche senior unsecured bond and certificate of indebtedness. Catalyst sales declined by 18% in local currency and 20% in Swiss francs against an exceptionally strong comparison base. Volumes declined by 18% versus the prior year due to lower new build activities and prolonged refill cycles, while pricing was flat in all segments. Sales declined in all segments, the most pronounced being specialties, which recorded a mid-20s percentage rate decrease. Sequentially, sales in catalysts increased by 16% in local currency as volumes picked up. Regional dynamics were driven by the project cycles related to new build activities and the refill business. Volume increases in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa region were offset by larger declines in Asia and the Americas. In the quarter, reported EBITDA margin increased to 19.8%, mainly due to an 18 million Swiss franc improvement in the negative impact from some liquid, and flat pricing in a deflationary environment. EBITDA before exceptional items was 41 million Swiss francs, resulting in a margin of 18.5% versus 18.4% in the prior year. When excluding operational and exceptional effects relating to sun liquid, catalyst EBITDA margin in Q2 2024 was 19.5% compared to 21.3% in the prior year period when sales were significantly higher. On a sequential basis, excluding the sun liquid impact, the margin increased from 16.1% in Q1 due to the pickup in volumes. On sun liquid, we made significant progress in executing on the closure of the plant and downsizing of related activities. As Conrad mentioned, we reached an agreement with International Chemical Investors Group to sell the Padari plant assets for 9.7 million euros in cash at closing. We also sold our Straubing assets for 1.0 million euros, signed a separate agreement for the planning site, and terminated multiple contractual relationships. In the quarter, the operational impact was negative 2 million Swiss francs, lower than the 5 million Swiss francs negative impact recorded in Q1 2024. Progress outlined resulted in an overall restructuring below budgeted costs and thus allowed the release of some provisions. We now expect a lower negative operational impact of approximately 10 million Swiss francs compared to up to 15 million Swiss francs previously. Total exceptional items are expected to be up to negative 15 million Swiss francs from negative 30 million Swiss francs previously and cash outflow expected between 80 and 100 million Swiss francs compared to 110 to 140 million Swiss francs previously expected. Moving to adsorbents and additives, sales increased by 2% in local currency with volumes of 5% while pricing decreased by 3%. Sequentially, sales in the business unit increased by 7% in local currency driven by increased volumes while pricing was stable. By segment, adsorbent sales declined by a low single-digit percentage as both price and volume were slightly lower. In the additive segment, sales increased by a low teens percentage rate due to strong volume growth as key end markets showed some improvement against the prior year. We also attracted strong interest in our new flame retardant facility in Daya Bay, with many target customers qualifying the plant and its material. Pricing in the segment was slightly negative. Reported EBITDA margin increased to 16.7% compared to 6.8% in the second quarter of 2023. Profitability levels reflect the increased volumes in additives, which supported by organizational structure improvements implemented over the last 12 months, resulted in significant operating leverage. Deflationary raw material and energy prices also contributed positively. EBITDA margin before exceptional items was 16.0% versus 9.5% in the prior year. We delivered cost savings of 9 million Swiss francs in the second quarter from our performance improvement programs. We remain on track to deliver our increased savings target of 175 million Swiss francs. Thus far, savings of 155 million Swiss francs, or just under 90%, have been realized from efficiency and right-sizing measures, as well as the initial savings from the implementation of our new operating model. For this year, we expect to achieve savings of 32 million Swiss francs, bringing total cost savings to 167 million Swiss francs by the end. Let's now move on to cover the first year, half-year financials. In the first half-year 2024, sales were 2.07 billion Swiss francs, declining by 7% in local currency, 5% of which was organic. This was mainly attributable to the decline in catalysts versus the very strong comparable base last year. Pricing had a negative impact of 4% while volumes were down 1%. Selling, general, and administrative costs increased by 12% versus the prior year due to disposal proceeds in the first half of 2023, the integration of Lucas Meyer Cosmetics, and partially offset by the benefits from our performance improvement programs. Group reported EBITDA increased by 1% to 339 million Swiss francs against the prior year when we recorded the gain from the quads disposal. Despite the absolute decline, the corresponding margin increased to 16.4% from 15.0%, supported by lower raw material and energy costs and cost savings from our performance improvement programs. The 16 million Swiss franc improvement in the negative operational impact from the sun liquid bioethanol activities also contributed to the improvement. In the first half year 2024, the net result from continuing operations was 176 million Swiss francs, decreasing by 23% year-on-year, predominantly due to the gain from the QATS disposal and positive tax income in H1 2023. The cash generated from operating activities for the group increased to 112 million Swiss francs from 78 million Swiss francs as a result of higher earnings. The last 12 months' free cash flow conversion increased to 42% from 36% reported at the end of 2023. Group net debt increased to 1.644 billion Swiss francs from 755 million recorded at the end of 2023, largely due to the acquisition of Lucas Meyer Cosmetics. The resulting net debt to EBITDA ratio stood at 2.7 times at the end of the quarter. And with this, I close my remarks and hand back to Conrad.

Thank you, Bill. Let me conclude with the outlook, starting with 2024. While we see a continuous easing of the inflationary environment, we see no significant economic recovery in 2024, with macroeconomic uncertainties and risks remaining. As of June 2024, the manufacturing PMI of the key regions, Europe, 45.6%, US, 48.5%, and China, 49.5%, are now all below 50, indicating a relatively weak outlook for industrial production for the second half of the year. We now expect flat to low single-digit percent sales growth in local currency as growth in chemicals, including the impact of the acquisition of Lucas Meyer cosmetics, and in absorbance and additives, is expected to compensate for second half-year uncertainties in the catalyst recovery phasing, while we see the positive long-term trends for catalysts remain unchanged. On profitability, we have increased our full-year reported EBITDA margin guidance by 100 basis points to around 16%. Half of this improvement is supported by the strong performance in the first half of the year and the other half related to the reduced total sun liquid impact. We will continue to focus on defending pricing in a deflationary raw material environment. And as mentioned, expect ongoing cost benefits from our performance improvement program of 32 million Swiss francs this year. Moving to our medium-term outlook. As end markets recover and growth normalizes over the next two to three years, we are well positioned and remain confident that we will deliver on our medium-term targets. We also confirm our expectation that 2025 will be a year of solid progress towards these targets, with continued growth and profitability improvement. Finally, I'm pleased to announce that we will be holding an investor day on November 4, 2024. This in-person event will take place at the Andas Hotel in London, and you will hear from myself and Bill, as well as Clarion's business unit presidents. We're looking forward to seeing you there. With that, I now turn the call back over to you, Andreas.

Thank you, Conrad, and thank you, Bill. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now take your questions. We would kindly ask that you please limit the number of questions to two, thus providing more participants with the opportunity to ask questions. Thank you for your understanding. We will now open the line for questions. Conrad, please go ahead.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question or make a comment may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets when asking a question. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to two questions only. The first question comes from Jonathan Chung from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I've got two, please. The first one is on your guidance. You raised your reported margins outlook to 16% from 15%. But in your slide 20, you keep your 25 margins target unchanged. Just wondering what headwinds do you see for 25 that led you to increase margins targets this year, but not next year? And also related to this one, understand the 16% is the reported margin. I think in your Q1 communication, you also got it around 16% target on the adjusted basis. Could you comment on what you expect for 24 margins on the adjusted basis? So that's my first question. My second question is on your additive margins. I think you mentioned better volumes and operating leverage and also efficiency program. But when I look at your Q1 margins, it is down sequentially around 300 basis points. Could you unpack some of the moving parts here and just give us a bit more colors on why the margin is down sequentially? And what do you see into sort of Q3 and second half? Thank you.

Yeah, sure, Jonathan. Thanks for your question. So on the guides, we increased it from a reported EBITDA of 15% to 16%. Basically, your first question, and I'll let Bill comment a little bit more on the moving parts here. But if you look at the guide for 2025, yeah, that's unchanged. We're still expecting a further pickup to 17 to 18% EBITDA margins. The building blocks basically are unchanged for 2025, but we actually have delivered some of that earlier than expected. But basically the building blocks are unchanged. So no need for us at this moment to basically change the 17 to 18% margin. It's not that we see new or additional headwinds. Maybe Bill, you could give a bit more flavor than how common will be added this margin pickup after that.

Yeah, well, I think just to echo on what Conrad said, we still feel very comfortable with the 17% to 18%. I mean, some of the kind of self-help items, the adjusting items that we had mentioned in Q1 for the 2025 guidance, some of those have been accelerated. So we were able to pull some of that benefit into 2024. So overall, those self-help measures, whether it's completion of our cost improvement programs, a procurement program that we have ongoing, which is actually yielding quite some benefits even this year already. Those have been accelerated, and we then will continue to see the development in terms of the full impact of Lucas Meyer Cosmetics, the full cost full absence of biofuels in 2025. So we're very much in line, and I think on track for that 17 to 18%.

Yeah, there may be some further comments on the pickup in margins in additives, and I guess on the line, you're also asking how sustainable are these improvements? So we were very pleased with the performance of the additive business in the second quarter. As you saw in the numbers, we saw an increase an EBITDA margin from 6.8% to 16.7%, which is basically driven by the elements that you mentioned, and I would also add raw materials. So yes, this is driven by a pickup in volume. This is driven by a significant cost takeout in the business, and that's both SG&A as well as supply chain costs, but it's also driven by lower raw materials. So if you sort of look Q2 versus Q1. Q1 was a comparison for additives versus a very strong prior year. Q2, I think, is a much more realistic year-on-year comparison that we're seeing there. And we see basically a double-digit pickup in volume, which sits very much, if you look at additives, not only in coatings and adhesives, but we're also seeing actually flame retardants now picking up, especially with the fill of our new plants in China.

Sorry, can I just follow up on your, the adjusted EBITDA margins guide? So, in Q1, you're guided to around 16% excluding sun and liquid impact for 24. Any self-comments based on the current of new guidance for reported?

There were any comments on the EBITDA guidance, the reported EBITDA guidance?

Yeah, well, you mentioned an adjusted EVA DAW figure. I mean, what we were actually referring to is a figure that is without some liquid. So we had said previously, that on the 2024 basis, we would be at around 16% without the sunliquid impact. And right now, we would estimate that without sunliquid, we're around 16.5%. So again, the move from 16.5% to 17% for 2025 is very, very plausible.

Okay, thank you.

The next question comes from Christian from . Please go ahead.

Yes, good afternoon, everybody. Two questions, please. First of all, would you believe that demand from ecochemical makers is coming back in H2 as their destocking should be over at some point during the next two quarters? And second question for Bill, can you give us some guidance on your analyzed interest rate expenses now that Lucas Meyer is acquired and financed? Thank you.

Yeah, okay, Christian, on your question on agro, and Bill will obviously then comment on the interest rates. Yeah, in terms of the demand pickup in agro, maybe first a sort of a broader comment on agro. The volumes have been weak. This has been, in H1, still a level of destocking, but I think we should also look at that basically crop prices are now down to a three-year low. So if you look at the weather conditions, they've actually been quite good. So there was actually sufficient humidity, I would say, in EMEA and in North America. That is also partly the El Nino effect, which actually is causing drought, dryness in Asia, but that's where we have much less business. So I think the conditions, the weather conditions for crop have been good, but what is driving volumes down to some extent is the low crop prices where then basically farmers are cutting back on crop protection as well as fertilizers. So as far as your question in terms of the pickup in the second half, we don't see an immediate recovery in crop and food prices. But what we are seeing at some point is that this de-stocking really should be over. So this is more backend. This is not so much yet in the numbers in Q3 if we look at our order books. But it's fair to say that the stocking really is largely behind us and we should see some level of pickup.

Actually, then on the interest rate topic, Christian, I'm actually really glad you brought that up because it's something we're actually quite proud of, especially recently. I know that there were some concerns when we did the Lucas Meyer Cosmetics bridge loan that the interest rate was relatively high. But we have managed to do the takeout financing for that with basically, as I mentioned in the opening comments, $350 million dual-trend senior bond, which is around 2.5%. And then about $500 million of Euro-denominated certificates of deposit, which are around 4.9%, which then gives us about a blended rate of of 3.8%, so that is much, much lower than what was anticipated actually at the time of announcement of LucasMeyer Cosmetics. Over across the entire debt portfolio, we're going to probably be a little under the 3% just because of prior tranches of debt that we had taken on at lower interest rates, but we're really, really quite happy with how that financing scenario worked out. Thanks for asking.

Okay, great. Thanks very much, both.

The next question comes from Katie Richards from Bernberg. Please go ahead.

Hello. Thank you for taking my question. My first question is on the corporate line. If I'm correct, it has marginally edged up since Q1. Is there a noteworthy reason for this? And would this quarter be representative of the rest of the year? And my second question is on catalysts. Obviously, we've seen a large decline in catalyst volumes this quarter. which consent is largely expected, but there have been sensitive signs of improvement recently, namely global utilization rates have been marginally coming up since the beginning of the year. So do you see the volumes have bottomed in due to, or do you expect these headwinds to exist for a little while longer?

Bill, why don't you take the first? I'll respond on the category one.

Katie, well spotted on the corporate line. You're right. I mean, we did see an increase in corporate costs between Q1 and Q2. What you see in Q2, which is only slightly above where we were Q2 last year, we have our half-year result accrual updates, which is probably the biggest item that lends some variability from one quarter to the next. So, like I said, versus same quarter 2023, we're only – slightly up, but I would probably use, I would use that, you know, 19, 20 million is more of a normalized framework going forward than the 11 million that we saw in Q1, which was impacted by some other adjustments.

Okay. Yeah. So, Katie, on your question on catalyst and the weakness that we're seeing in the quarter and actually in H1, So, first of all, we have guided for weakness in catalysts. So, what we're seeing here is the biggest reductions in orders coming in are in the new-built area. So, we have seen an unprecedented amount of new-built plants, particularly in China in recent years. We benefited from that with our CatoFin business, our propane to propylene catalysts. but also, for example, in the specialties segment with catalysts for new-build malic anhydride plants in China. So if you look at our current run rates for new-build, it's roughly half of what it historically has been. And maybe to give a bit of color here, historically, new-build was about one-third of our business, and refill business was about two-thirds. We now have seen the new-build drop to, let's say, roughly 15% of our revenue. So we do see that slowdown. We did guide for that. As far as the refill business, you're right. This is where catalysts are consumed by our customers in their chemical production. And when operating rates are lower, what you see is that the refill cycle gets longer. So it takes longer and later for these orders to come in. And we are seeing now the delayed impact of the low operating rates in the chemical industry from last year, especially in Europe. What we're expecting is for new builds not to pick up quickly, but we are expecting actually a solid return of our refilled business at some point in time. And for next year, we're targeting growth again in our catalyst business.

We take the next question from Randolph Orr from Citi. Please go ahead.

Hi there. Thanks for taking the questions. To continue on catalysts for a second, if that's all right, I'm sort of struggling to understand the change in communication despite what you said so far. At Q1, it felt like everything was fine and things were going okay for the business, you know, for the rest of the year. You know, you previously talked about a very long order book for the division, you know, nine months or so. And then suddenly it seems things have deteriorated, you know, quite significantly for you to reference such uncertainty in the outlook. So, you know, Any further detail would be appreciated in understanding why that is not going as well as it appeared to be. The second question is just on the guidance. I mean, to me, it appears pretty conservative, you know, On my estimates, the adjusted EBITDA guide is about 700 million for the year. You did basically 350 in the first half. Catalyst should be sequentially better in the second half. ANA looks like it's getting better in the second half. Lucas Meijer should offset the strong de-icing business in Q1. So that should mean maybe that's . So what are we missing? Why is second half not better than first? That would be my two. Thank you.

Okay. I'll let Bill comment with some detail on the guys. I think you did most of the elements there, but I'm sure Bill had a few. things there. As far as catalysts, so if I understand your question correctly, is what has happened and why is the outlook deteriorating? So if you basically look at the catalyst business, we're not saying that we have certainly a very problematic outlook for catalysts. We have adjusted the outlook, as you could have seen in basically Also our speech. So we were previously guiding for mid-single-digit decline this year. Now what we're saying is mid- to high-single-digit decline. Now what this is is a delay in the refill business. So the refill business is there. It is actually typically a reliable piece of business. You will have to refill the reactors with catalysts at some point in time. But there is actually a direct link to operating rates. And if you reflect on it, last year, we had actually weak operating rates in the chemical industry, especially in Europe, but to some extent also in the United States. And in China, we had some overcapacity. We had still good volumes, but also lower operating rates. If you look what has actually happened in the first half, and if you specifically look at operating rates, in Europe, we're still at a low level. So the overall average for chemical plants in Europe is sitting at a roughly 70% operating rate. So it has not picked up yet. We are expecting this to pick up. We are expecting also broadly speaking, gross to pick up in chemicals. But what really is needed is basically durable goods spending, consumer spending on durable goods to pick up again. So you still see right now industrial production rates negative in Europe, fairly flat in the U.S., and it's only strong in China where it's basically even outperforming GDP. So it's not that we see a major deterioration. What we're seeing is weaker new builds as we guide it forward and a delay in refill, but it will come back. Maybe Bill, you could comment further on that.

Yeah, Renil, thanks for the question. Let me start by just reiterating a few numbers. So in the first half of this year, we were around 16.4%. percent reported EBITDA margin. What we've done now is increase our guidance to 16%. So you're right, that does imply a slightly lower reported EBITDA margin in the second half of the year. What I would start by saying, though, is that if you look at the performance of the underlying businesses, so most notably the EBITDA before exceptional items, That is actually consistent first half versus second half. So we're looking at a EBITDA buy of around 16.7, 16.8 in the first half and the second half. The part that is probably missing for you are the expected exceptional costs that we will have in the second half of the year, specifically related to the closure of biofuels and of LucasMeyer integration. And both of those amounts are very much as previously anticipated, it's just that they were and are second half loaded. And that's what is the main driver between what you see as the kind of the first half EBITDA figure and the second half EBITDA figure.

Right. Okay. Thanks.

The next question comes from Chetan Odeshi from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Yeah, hi, thanks. I think the first question I had was on K-Chemicals performance. When I compared the second quarter numbers to first quarter, it seems your top line is down somewhere between 15 to 20 million strength sequentially, but your earnings is down more than 20% sequentially. Now, I understand there's a $5 million impact from BPA, but still, you know, why is the drop-through of lower revenue so much higher? It's almost 100% on EBITDA in the second quarter when I compare to Q1. Is there something specific going on? Is it net pricing? Maybe not as good as was the case in Q1, but some color there will be useful. And maybe can you just remind us, and apologies if this was already mentioned by you, but just wanting to Get a sense of what you actually see by your different business segments as we look into third quarter trajectory versus Q2. I mean, do you see anything which is getting worse, anything getting better, especially given that you also have some exposure to autos in your absorbance and additive business, and clearly there has been some concern around autos more recently. Thank you.

Yeah, Chetan, thanks for your questions. I'll let Bill comment in a bit more detail on the Q1 versus Q2 in chemicals. I'll answer your question on sort of the broader outlook for the different segments. Let me start by saying that, yeah, overall in Q2, we saw flat volumes, but obviously we are extremely pleased with the 7% growth in volume that we saw in chemicals. We were very pleased with the 5% volume growth that we saw in additives and absorbents. Based on our analysis, the 7% volume growth in chemicals clearly is better than what the overall markets are doing in that sector. Likewise, the 5% for additives and absorbents. compensated all by the 80%, 180% decline in volumes in Catalyst. If you look at the outlook for these segments in the coming months, what we are seeing is actually also quarter to quarter. We see the pickup clearly in additives. We're very pleased with that. That's a combination of, if you look at our additives for coatings, our additives for adhesives, That segment is picking up, but the strongest pickup we're seeing in editors for plastics and here, the big product for us is flame retardants. And I think this is actually partly the fact that we are actually regaining market share in China for flame retardants. We've started up the new plant, we are working coming in as we speak and in the coming quarters. Underlying, there's also a much more positive outlook. If you look, for example, electronic products, computers, laptops, I mentioned it in the speech. So we're seeing a mid single digit growth there when actually that business was down like 10, 11% last year. We see a positive outlook for cell phones. So that's also very positive. Last year it was down mid single digits. So if you look more broadly speaking about our segments, what you see is a switchback in consumer spending from services to, let's say, semi-durables, like the examples that I just gave. The real switchback to durable goods, we still anticipate that to happen, but we need the interest rate cuts, two cuts in the U.S., one in Europe. to really see the recovery in housing and construction markets, which will then lead to increased durable goods, people buying new appliances, new furniture, and that is obviously where a lot of our products go. So we continue to feel positive about our outlook for next year, the 3% to 5% growth, and then, yeah, also the underlying profitability, 2% to 17%, 18%. Maybe, Bill, you could give a bit of color on the Q1, Q2 on Canada.

Gladly. Though, Jayvon, it's going to be a fairly short answer. I mean, it's really all aviation. We had a very, very strong quarter in Q1 around the aviation business. We had good volumes. We had excellent margins. which, as you know, the aviation business is seasonal. So we had a great Q1, but that goes away in Q2. Some of the impact was mitigated by the now inclusion of Lukas Meyer cosmetics, but really the big difference Q1 versus Q2 on care chemicals is all aviation.

Understood. Thank you.

The next question comes from Andreas Heine from Stiefel. Please go ahead.

Yes, thank you. Two questions if I may. One is again on Catalyst. I'd like to understand a little bit more on how visible it is for you that 2025 will be better. So you revised your outlook from last quarter to this year as your order book in the retail business is not expanding as you are wishing for. What gives you then the confidence that next year will be better? It cannot be your order book and it is not the new build. So is that Let's say your experience, how long it will take if operating rates pick up, or what is that based on? That's the first question. And second, absorbance was not touched that much on, but usually you report very consistently, very resilient, even in very difficult times, an increase in volume and demand. This was different this time. And you can outline why absorbance was weaker this quarter and how that looks like for the second half.

Yeah, sure. Thanks for your questions. So maybe even a bit further on Catalyst, there were already a few questions asked about it. So if you look at the order booking Catalyst, typically we have a visibility of, let's say, six to nine months. Now, that is a combination of new builds and actually refill business. What I will say is what we see now is that the business on new build is down. I mentioned a figure of roughly 15% now of the overall business being new build. That does mean automatically that we see a bit more volatility in the order book. So refill business, refill orders don't come in with the same lead time as new build. I mean, to give you a flavor for a new plant, we can have lead times anywhere from 12 to even 18 months. Customers work on a certain schedule for a ramp-up, and then at some point in time, they order the catalyst for a new cloud. So if you look at the order book, it is more reflective now of a refill business. So what we are seeing is that we see a delay right now. And the question that we're asking all our customers is, well, how much can you delay the order? And at some point, these will come back in. They will come back in. I mean, that will happen. So that's certainly we have. However, it is more back-end loaded than we previously thought. And that's why we changed the guide. from mid-single now to high single, mid to high single-digit decline this year in Catalyst. To your second question on absorbance, you're absolutely right. This is one of the most stable businesses that we actually have. What you see is there's basically the foundry part of it, which is a little bit more volatile, but there's also the filtration part of it. edible oils, which is typically very stable. And then there's the gross engine, which is renewable fuels, which is increasing actually in share. So this is primarily renewable diesel in Europe and renewable diesel in the US. But over time, you will see a big shift to sustainable aviation fuel. It's well spotted. Our absorbance business was actually down. And this is something that we have very strong visibility on. because it is actually related to a large renewable diesel client that we have in the United States that actually was shut down for the entire quarter because of, interesting enough, because of a catalyst problem. But it wasn't our catalyst. But they're back up and running, so we should see a solid recovery on the absorbance business. And I will also say that we're starting up the new activation line in the fourth quarter for our adsorb. growth driver for the business moving forward.

Thanks. The next question, from Deutsche Bank, please. Go ahead.

Hi. Thanks for taking my question too, please. The first is on flame retardants. Could you maybe let us know how full the capacity is at the moment and how much capacity there is to fill from here or how much incremental sales we could expect if volume picks up considerably? and when would you expect to need to invest in new capacity for flame retardants? And then the second question, a couple of follow-ups in the chemicals points. You gave the Lucas Meyer sales in Q2. I wasn't sure if you also gave the EBITDA. Did Lucas Meyer do EBITDA at the $35 million one rate in Q2, or was it slightly below? And then maybe you could also give an indication of a normal EBITDA for de-icing, which I think must have outperformed in Q1. And maybe there's about a 30 million change quarter on quarter in that. So what should we expect for a normal year? Thanks.

Okay, Tristan. Let me start with your final two questions because they're relatively easy to answer. We're actually not disclosing the EBITDA margins at a segment level. So unfortunately, I can't give you those numbers for obviously also competitive reasons, but you can be assured the ISM is clearly accretive in terms of their EBITDA margin. In terms of the Lucas Meyer question that you asked, he did disclose a revenue number for Lucas Meyer in the quarter. I think it was 23 million Swiss francs. Just to give you an idea, if you basically translate it to U.S. dollars and then look at what is the annual run rate right now, we actually just were doing that calculation here a week back. So we're actually sitting at a 108 US dollar full year outlook, which is a very positive one. If you recognize that we bought that business when it was actually just under 100 million US dollars. So it is running at a very strong growth rate, a consistent growth rate of roughly 10% right now in terms of the CAGR. In terms of margins for Lucas Meyer, also no change from the prior with EBITDA margin.

If I can add just one thing on that, Tristan. So, as Conrad said, the growth of sales and the margins of Lucas Meyer Cosmetics are coming in just bang on where we expected them to be. So, we're very happy with that. But just to reiterate, we did have this $5 million adjustment on the revaluation of acquired inventories per IFRF. That was about a $5 million impact in Q2, and we're expecting another $5 million impact in Q3. Then it's done.

Yeah, maybe finally your question on flame retardants. We have actually a significant capacity. Maybe a brief look in the rearview mirror. What happens during the pandemic is we did admittedly struggle to supply some of our customers, particularly in China, for electronics products, for electric vehicles. We did struggle to supply them from Europe, where we previously only had all our capacity at our Knapsack site. So opening up the new line actually last year gave us a very strong footprint locally in China. First of all, we need to regain quickly the share that we lost. We see a very positive momentum right now with sort of 10% CAGR right now that we saw in the second quarter. That is actually above overall market for flame retardants in that region. There's plenty of capacity right now. So no capex ahead of us. So short term, it's very much a game of completely reestablishing us, our position, which was a strong position with electric vehicles production in China. And then actually it is also benefiting from a growth in data centers, more broadly from electrification, what you see as trends. And finally, and this is then mid to longer term, there will be a shift in the market where now actually all the competing flame retardants are bromine-based, brominated products. We actually have the halogen-free product range. And if and when finally we see new REACH legislation in Europe kicking in, that will be a big positive for this business because we are extremely well positioned with halogen-free flame retardants.

Right, thank you.

The next question comes from Georgina Fraser from GS. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks so much. Hi, Conrad. Hi, Bill. Hello. I've just got one left. Just, Bill, if you could talk a little bit about what's driven this very impressive step up in cash conversion that we've seen at the second quarter. If you can remind us about any that we might want to consider for a continuation of that into the second half of the year. And then as I look at your balance sheet, in light of good cash performance, if you can remind us about your leverage targets and preferred uses for cash, because that's looking quite good into 2025. Thank you.

Thank you, Georgina. So, actually, on cash conversion, there's no magic sauce. It's a lot of the same things that we've talked about previously, really pushing for as much of a positive impact from the operational cash flow as we can get, which we clearly saw benefit of that. Thank you, too. Looking at the working capital, I mean, there's quite a lot of things that we've done within the company to increase the visibility on inventories, on receivables, on payables, and that is definitely moving in the right direction. In fact, this quarter we have had a smaller increase in net working capital than what we saw the same time last year, so that certainly helps the pre-cash flow. And then finally on CapEx, I mean, we've commented before that the view to CapEx in the old days was pretty much everybody gets what they want. We spend a lot of money on assets that don't really add profitability, and that's not really the case anymore. I mean, we really try to focus on those projects that are bringing something positive to the bottom line. and we're also focusing on, in fact, creating a bit of tension across the business units to make there feel like there's a bit of competition for the available cash that we have. So that has had a huge impact, and I think that's probably why we're sitting where we are. With regard to the leverage targets, it is certainly our intent post-Lucas Meyer acquisition to deleverage. We would like to see that get down below two again, and I am confident that we'll make that happen. I mean, we still have ambition around bolt-on acquisitions, and as soon as we can get this delevered a little bit, then we'll have a balance sheet as strong as we had last year when we did Lucasmark Cosmetics.

That's great. Thank you, Bill. Thanks. The next question comes from Thea Badaro from BNP Baribas. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Just a quick question from me. Could you quickly talk about your pricing expectations into the second half? More specifically, in which area do you believe you'll have enough leeway to retain the pricing you've earned amid the deflation and without necessarily jeopardizing volumes?

Yeah, on pricing, I think it's, first of all, I would like to comment that we are extremely pleased with our pricing performance that we've seen this year. So, as a reminder, we were down 3% overall pricing year-on-year in Q2, but that is against a raw material standard. drop of 10% year on year in the second quarter. So pricing clearly has been a lever. We have been able to significantly expand our margins and it's part of the bridge. It's just an important part of the 500 basis point bridge that we see underlying in the second quarter versus prior year. If you sort of look a little bit more granular by business, we are seeing formula-based pricing in care chemicals, roughly 40% of the portfolio. sits primarily in oil and gas. Here, we do need to give some of the raw material reductions back to our clients. That's one of the reasons you see an overall minus 4% of pricing in care chemicals. In adsorbents and additives, we were actually also slightly down on pricing that is actually reflecting significant reductions in raw materials, especially that we saw in the additives business. Catalysts, we were very pleased that we were able to hold pricing flat in an environment where the metals clearly have come down. Now, to your question, what are we seeing in the coming quarters? We are seeing a stabilization if you look at pricing on raw materials. And we're even seeing now for the next quarter and Q4, we see slightly sequential increases in our raw materials spent from where we are right now. So we are confident that we will be able to pass on raw material prices and typically pass on more than what we see in our raw materials bill. This has really been, I think, a very established capability now in the company moving forward as well.

That's helpful. Thank you.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Konstantin Viker from Bader Hildea. Please go ahead.

Yeah, hi. Sorry, just Just maybe a couple of minor ones left. On the crop protection, maybe you could also give some details on whether you expect customers then to maybe also lower prices on their crop protection chemicals after the increases that we've seen over the last year in order to maybe stimulate volumes here. And if so, would that be positive for you? due to higher volumes and potentially also some price pass-through clauses, or is that in a scenario where you could also come under pressure? And maybe the other one, and I think I just missed that, but maybe if you could comment on that again, the volume development in the care chemicals on a sequential basis. Thank you.

Yeah, thank you Constantine for your two questions on both actually for chemicals. So first on crop, what we've seen in crop is entirely volume related. So the roughly minus 10% on revenue is entirely volume related. We're actually very pleased with our ability to hold prices. We are spec in here in customer formulations. So if and when volumes come back, and we discussed about the different underlying drivers, including still some restocking, if and when volumes come back, we will see also solid profitability coming back in. If you look at chemicals more broadly, and the sequential volume development, I think first of all, we obviously need to recognize the inclusion of Lucas Meyer. In the second quarter, we closed the transaction April So, in the second half, we see two quarters of that. But I think what is really positive, if you look at the 7% growth that we saw in volumes, is that we are seeing basically across all of these segments in care chemicals, with the exception of crop. and base chemicals, we see a broad-based recovery in terms of volumes. Also, actually, if you look at personal care, home care, so this is a very different dynamic than we saw last year. Last year, we had this so-called inflation shrink, where basically the big brands were cutting on their packaging to basically get basically price increases through. You now see the opposite. So a lot of the large brand owners have shifted their focus on volume. There's like 241 sales going on, not only actually in the US, but also in Europe. So we are seeing actually solid volumes coming through in-care chemicals. We expect that momentum to continue actually in the quarters ahead.

Right. And on the agrochemical question?

Yeah, on the agrochemical question, I think I answered that to some extent. So it is actually entirely volume-related, the drop in crop protection. So we've been able to hold our prices real well here. So for us, if and when volumes come back, we'll see solid profitability coming back for that segment. And it's actually accretive for us. It's a very attractive segment.

Thanks. Sorry. Sorry I missed that. Thank you again. Thank you.

Our last question for today comes from from on field research. Please go ahead.

Thanks a lot. Sorry. Thanks a lot. I want to ask about, apologies for this, but I want to ask about your Q4, how you look at it this year given it's such an important quarter for you. You know, do we expect a typical seasonality in catalyst in Q4, i.e., it will, it will be sort of this big quarter, or do you expect it to be more in sync with Q3 and Q4? And then on the second hand, with regards to de-icing, was it just chain filling from your customers in Q1, and therefore Q4 will compensate for maybe a slower start unless we have a winter storm? Or was it that it was cold in Q1, and therefore if we have even a normal winter, then actually the icing will be fine in Q4. That's my first question. And second question really is on additive. It's actually the first question I think Jonathan asked about the Q on Q margin development. So, you know, it seems like your growth is mainly coming from flame retardants, but the margin uplift or the operational leverage is somewhat lacking a little bit. So is it that your new customers that maybe you've won are negative on the mix versus your previous cycle or previous customers? Or what is it that is holding margins or operating leverage back here in additives, especially in flame retardants? Thanks a lot.

Yeah, sure, Jaideen. Yeah, so on the last one, the margin uplifts in additives Q1 versus Q2. I think Bill will comment with some granularity there later. So basically your question on the icing and weather and what happens in Q1 and what we expect for Q4. So as well as your question on inventory refilling. No, we didn't see any unusual movements as far as inventory levels. So the strengths that we saw in the icing in Q1 was entirely based on the weather on the one hand. But let's also not forget the margins. So we actually did see quite some lower pricing on the glycols. Some of the raw materials getting into this business and we were able to actually also deliver strong margins. So yeah, what's going to happen in Q4? This is always very difficult to forecast because it is very much weather related. We're certainly hoping for a strong de-icing season. But that is hard to predict. Typically, you need weather that's high humidity on the one hand and cold on the other side. And then that's actually good for our business. Yeah, then your second quarter, before I pass it on to Bill, so is on catalyst. And what are we expecting in terms of Q3 versus Q4? Unfortunately, because we don't like that either, but unfortunately, it is very much back-end loaded. That is just what we are seeing in our order book right now. So, unfortunately, Q3 is still going to be a week quarter ahead in Catalyst. What we're looking at right now, it is really the pickup is there in Q4. Maybe, Bill, you can provide some color on the margins in additives.

Glad to. So, actually, John, if we go back into the last quarter, last year, actually, Because the volumes were so low, we took a number of actions. One of those actions was to basically put certain capacity basically on a temporary production hold and sell down inventories. And then the other thing that we did in Q3 and Q4 last year was really start to dramatically transform the operation environments that we have within the additives business. So as you saw us coming out of a relatively low margin base in Q4 of last year and into a much stronger margin base this year, what you saw then is not only the positive impact of some of those operations transformation activities, but also kind of restarting the engine because we had shut down some of that capacity in Q4 and we brought it back online in Q1. So we had a very strong result in Q1. If I'm looking, you know, at the individual segments, I mean, they still performed reasonably well in Q2. So, I mean, we're very, very happy with the activities and the actions that have taken place within the additives business, and we think we're on a very strong trajectory there for improved margin performance.

Thanks a lot. Just one follow-up. So, in-catalyst should be, then, expect very similar Q3 and Q2 development. Therefore, in terms of sales and EBITDA.

Yeah, Jaydeep, I think that's a fair statement that Q3 will be in line with Q2 and the pickup will be in Q4.

Thanks a lot. Thank you.

So, ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. A transcript of the call will be available on the Clarion website in due course. The investor relations team is available for any further questions you may have. We look forward to seeing you in November in London for our investor day, and we wish you, in case you have a holiday season ahead of you, a nice holiday, and then we can be latest with a few results. Thank you once again for joining today, and goodbye.

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