11/14/2025

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good morning or good afternoon. Welcome to Swiss Re's nine-month 2025 results conference call. Please note that today's conference call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Andrea Berger, Group CEO. Please go ahead.

speaker
Andreas Berger
Group CEO

Thank you very much, and good morning or good afternoon to all of you. I appreciate that you're taking the time today to listen to us and also to engage into a hopefully very vivid Q&A. Before our group CFO, Anders Malmström, walks you through the details of our nine-month results, I'd like to start with some brief remarks as usual. After another strong quarter with a profit of $1.4 billion, we're pleased to report an net income of $4 billion for the first nine months of 2025, corresponding to an annualized return on equity of 22.5%. This puts us very well on track for our full year net income target of more than 4.4 billion US dollars. We benefited from exceptionally strong P&C results in the third quarter, helped by a low burden of large claims. These amounted to around 200 million US dollars in the quarter, well below expectations across P&C REIT and corporate solutions. The result of the second consecutive benign large loss is that both our P&C units are tracking well ahead of their respective targets. This is the principal reason why we're in such a good position at this point in the year. You've heard me stress our two key priorities, and they are unchanged. deliver on the more than $4.4 billion U.S. group net income targets, and secondly, increase the group's overall resilience to improve long-term delivery. Now on resilience. This journey started with a complete turnaround of corporate solutions and the implementation of a new reserving philosophy, which we subsequently extended to a P&C RE two years ago. We also successfully addressed P&C REIT's in-force U.S. liability reserves last year. This year, we've been focused on further improving the resilience of the third business unit, Life and Health Re. After three quarters, Life and Health Re net income stands at $1.1 billion U.S., which is actually a quite solid result. and a very important contribution to the group's earnings. But Lachlan Hale's results have been too noisy. As mentioned at our half-year results, we continue to focus on reducing volatility in smaller portfolios. Their experience has lagged expectations, thereby producing negative variances to our expected results. These negative variances are unacceptable. as our largest portfolios, including U.S. mortality, perform in line with expectations. In the third quarter, we therefore decided to partially accelerate efforts to strengthen the resilience of the in-force book based on detailed reviews of underperforming portfolios. Some of these are still ongoing and will be completed at the end of this year. We have full confidence in reaching the group's net income target of more than 4.4 billion U.S. dollars of the year. But given where Life and Health Re stands at after three quarters, and given our focus on resilience, we feel it is prudent to flag that in a base case, we're likely to fall short of the 1.6 billion U.S. dollars Life and Health Re four-year target. We will do what's required to get this business to produce results closer to expectations. At this point, and I emphasize, we do not expect significantly outsized impacts from Life and Health Re in the fourth quarter relative to Q3. So you heard me emphasizing not. We will update you on this on December 5th at our management dialogue event, and we're looking forward to that. Let me also briefly touch on new business CSM generation across our segments. We remain focused on disciplined underwriting as profitability continues to be our priority. To re-emphasize again, we don't have a top-line target. New business generation remains resilient with a new business CSM of 3.9 US dollars, billion US dollars for the first nine months. slightly down from last year's $4.2 billion. The decline versus last year partially reflects the more challenging pricing environment that we're facing in some lines of business in the P&C business, but also in corporate solutions. It also reflects our continued focus on portfolio quality, including the setting of proven initial loss assumptions. Overall, we're still satisfied with the margins we're able to generate across the businesses. Importantly, we continue to maintain discipline on terms and conditions and attachment points. I look forward to presenting further details on our group priorities at the upcoming Management Dialogue event on December 5th. On that date, we'll also announce our financial targets for 2026. I'll be joined by our group CFO, Anders Malmström, to provide an update on key topics across our businesses, followed by then an extended Q&A session. I think with that, I'm happy to hand over to Anders to give you more flavor.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

Thank you, Andreas. And again, good afternoon or good morning to everyone on the call. I'll make a few remarks on the results we released this morning before we go to the Q&A session. Andreas has taken you through the highlights of our overall strong results for the first nine months of the year. Let me add a few further details. On revenues, the group's insurance revenue amounted to 32 billion US dollars in the first nine months, down from 33.7 billion last year. The 1.7 billion decline has a few major drivers, most of which were already highlighted in the first half of the year. At Q2 2025, that indicated that group revenues in the second half would be around 1.5 billion US dollars higher than in the first half. In line with this guidance, Q3 revenues were around 600 million US dollars higher than the average quarterly revenue in the first half of the year, reflecting the increased claims seasonality. While Q4 is also projected to be higher than Q1 and Q2, we now expect revenues in the second half to be slightly below the 1.5 billion US dollar previous estimate, primarily due to our continued focus on portfolio quality in P&C RE. As you have heard from us by now, we do not manage for top line. Let me move on. to the insurance service result of our businesses. In P&TV, you will continue to notice a decline in the CSM release versus last year's period. The $2.1 billion US dollar release in the first nine months is down from last year's $2.7 billion. This decrease is driven by the earn-through of prudent initial loss picks, including impact of new business uncertainty allowance and slightly lower margins. Experience variance and other, which captures all variances relative to initial reserving assumptions, contributed positively by $549 million in the first nine months, including $447 million in the third quarter alone. This quarter's positive experience was mainly attributable to large NABCAD losses that came in $678 million below expectations, bringing year-to-date favorable NAPCAT experience to $900 million. In addition, P&C Re benefited from a one-off risk adjustment release in the third quarter in the amount of $170 million. Against this very favorable backdrop in the third quarter, we selectively added to both current and prior year reserves. Year-to-date, we have added around $300 million to our current year reserves in P&G RE. Nominal prior year reserves releases stand at around $150 million for nine months, which means we added around $100 million in the third quarter. Please note, that no further actions have been necessary on the U.S. liability portfolio we strengthened a year ago. On the back of all the pieces I just described, P&C Re reported a very strong combined ratio of 71.3% in the third quarter, resulting in 77.6% for the first nine months, well below the 85% target we have for the year. Moving on to corporate solutions. The nine-month CSM release of $668 million is above last year's $628 million, driven by higher in-force margins. Experience variance and other was positive at $111 million. This reflects favorable large loss experience and a positive prior year reserve result. partially offset by an allowance for potential late claims reporting. Large NatCat claims of $60 million came in below expectations for the first nine months, while large man-made claims of $282 million were slightly above, partially offsetting the favorable NatCat experience. Corporate Solutions continues its track record with a nine-month combined ratio of 87.1%, below our target of less than 91% for the full year. Finally, on life and health reinsurance, as Andreas mentioned, we decided to partially accelerate our efforts to strengthen the resilience of the Inforcebook, following detailed reviews of underperforming portfolios. This resulted in negative assumption updates hitting the P&L in the amount of around 400 million U.S. dollars for the first nine months. There were 250 million U.S. dollars in the third quarter. The large majority of the third quarter's impact related to selected health business in the EMEA and AMZ regions. The fact that this hits P&L mostly reflect the onerous nature of these portfolios under IFRS, and this makes it particularly important that we strengthen them sufficiently. We have also seen negative claims and volume developments of approximately 250 million U.S. dollars year to date, primarily in the third quarter. Q3 was mostly driven by the Americas region, which had a relatively poor quarter in terms of experience, driven by volatile large claims. Importantly, overall year-to-date claims experience in our largest portfolios, which includes the U.S. mortality, which was strengthened before our transition to IFRS, continues to perform in line with expectations over the first nine months. Despite all of the actions and impacts, Life Intel 3 has produced a net income of 1.1 billion U.S. dollars in the first nine months, with 218 million achieved in the third quarter. While some of the assumptions reviews also affected our CSM balance, in addition to the P&L, our CSM overall remained unchanged at U.S. dollar 17.4 billion. compared to year-end 2024, supported by attractive and prudently priced new basis and favorable FX impact. A few words on investments before concluding with SST. We benefited from a strong investment result with a return on investment of 4.1% ahead of last year's 3.9%, supported by strong recurring income standing at $3.0 billion in the first nine months. We estimate the group's SST ratio at 268% as of 1st of October 2025, 11 points higher from where we started the year. That's where I will leave it for now, and I'm happy to hand over to Thomas to kick off the Q&A. Thank you, Andreas. Thank you, Anders. Hi to you from my side as well. As usual, before we start, if I could just remind you to limit yourself to two questions, and should you have a follow-up question, please kindly rejoin the queue. With that operator, could we start with the first question, please?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The first question comes from Cameron Hossain from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

speaker
Cameron Hossain
Analyst, JP Morgan

Hi. Afternoon. A couple of questions. The first one is just on the life side. I think the commentary you've given around, like, quantum in Q4 versus Q3 is helpful. I just wanted to clarify a few things. So when you say it's not going to be a much larger quantum than Q3, I'm just trying to understand whether you mean the 250 million you flagged or the 450 million negative experience in Q3 standalone, because there's quite a difference from the two numbers. So any kind of clarification on kind of what that comment kind of meant slightly more precisely. And the second question is, in terms of like portfolios left to review, Can you maybe talk through the kind of the proportion you've got left to review, like what proportion this is of, you know, kind of life reserves, you know, how meaningful is this? I'm hoping you're going to say a low number, but I just kind of wanted to hear what you say on that.

speaker
Andreas Berger
Group CEO

Thank you. Thanks, Kamau, and hi. Maybe I should give Anders the first words, you know, on the size, and then I might jump in to give you a bit of background then.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

So just on the talk about outsized or not outsized impact in Q4, we basically mean the 250 million impact that we saw in Q3. That's what kind of puts it in a box. So it's not much left. It's a few portfolios that we have to go through to finalize that. And yeah, by the end of the year, we should be done.

speaker
Andreas Berger
Group CEO

And then maybe just to give you the perspective, the bigger picture. So we have three phases that we looked at, and that's exactly why we come to that small number in comparison. So phase one was introduction of IFRS. That's where we addressed the large portfolios, in particular critical owners in China and U.S. mortality. Then we had, as a second phase, mid-sized portfolios. That also has been digested. And now we were turning the attention to the remaining smaller portfolios that are distributed across the regions and also lines of businesses. So what we needed to do is really to address the individual noise, you know, in those many small portfolios that in total, I mean, they're actually quite modest, but we needed to address the accumulation of this noise, you know, and that's exactly why we took this view now, and that's the background to the question that, or the answer that Anders gave you. On the data of the regions, I think we will give you more details in the management update on the 5th of December. Thank you. We'll come on to the next question, please.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Dacre, Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

speaker
Andrew Dacre
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Great. Thank you for taking my questions. First one, just on the insurance revenues. So I hear what you're saying on you don't manage the top line. Could you be able to give a bit more detail on which areas of the business has led for the, I guess, slight change in view in the second half? Obviously, you previously said it was sort of $1.5 billion. You were expecting it to be higher than the first, and now it seems like slightly below that. So just any more color there would be really helpful. And then secondly... Are you able just to confirm how much of the uncertainty allowance you've added so far this year and what you expect this to be by the end of the year? Thank you.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

Okay. Maybe I take the first one on the revenues. So maybe just to give you a bit of context again, and I think maybe it's a bit of repetition from the first half, but overall when I talk about $1.7 billion year over year lower, 1.5, I think we already told you. First of all, it's the pruning actions on the P&C re-site, which is about half a billion. It's the termination of an external retro transaction on the life and health re-site, which is 400 million. It's the non-renewal of the Irish MedEx business, which is about 400. And it's then the sale of the P&C EMEA IPTQ, which is about 200 million. So that explains basically the majority of that. So overall, The remaining piece is then really coming from the P&C side where we have this NDIC feature that we talked about, you know, the netting of the commission that we didn't do before that. And then just continue just management of the business itself. So I think that explains it. I think that should be clear now.

speaker
Andreas Berger
Group CEO

Are there any notes? I think this is a prudency measure. We're not quantifying it.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

Thank you, Andrew. Could we have the next question, please?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Shanti Kang, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

speaker
Shanti Kang
Analyst, Bank of America

Hi, yeah, thanks for taking my question. So it's just mainly on the life and health side. So I understand that the LNH missed today won't derail the group net result target. But I think it does raise a couple of questions about the run rate into 2026. So I'm just curious whether or not the adjustments today will adjust the forward view on the run rate of the life and health book, i.e. if that's like a structural concern today that we should be thinking about. And then just given the fact the last six quarters we've had a number of assumption updates, I get that you're saying we'll complete that in in the full year, this year, but do we need to take some more caution on our assumptions for those into the next year, i.e., can we get a bit more comfortable, do you think, about there being no more updates or repeats in future? Thank you.

speaker
Andreas Berger
Group CEO

Let me do the intro and hand over then to Anders. Maybe just to clarify, we could have let the noise continue. You know, that is another option, you know. But we could have made our targets also in life and health. That's the one option. But again, you know, we want all our business units to look healthy across all portfolios. We want all business units to play their role that they play in the portfolio of Swiss Re group. We'd like to see the diversification benefits come through over time and consistently. Life and health is decorated to P&C. That's the strength of our portfolio. Within the P&C, COSO is not so correlated to the P&C RE business because we buy external reinsurance. So we think we've got a pretty clean setup at group level with all three business units. That's why we want all units to play their role and also to have a healthy portfolio to play optimal role.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

Maybe just to add to what Andreas said, I mean, I think it's really critical that we get that through. That's the last phase of, you know, we started with large portfolios, and now we're doing the small ones. By the end, this is done. We're going to give an update on the target and the expected run rate for the next years at the management dialogue, and that's where you can also then expect a bit more details how this will perform going forward. Thank you, Shanti. Could we have the next question, please?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Ivan Bokmat from Barclays. Please go ahead.

speaker
Ivan Bokmat
Analyst, Barclays

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you very much. My first question would be on life and health as well. Maybe you could talk in a bit more detail about the underlying reasons for deterioration in those health portfolios. Maybe there are any common drivers in these markets that develop negatively and what would make them unique compared to the better performing ones, just to see if there's some trends that we can monitor from our side. And my second question, considering you suggested that the Q4 adjustment will be smaller than 250 and your run rate is still quite comfortably getting you above 4.4, I was just wondering if you considered taking any additional steps to add prudence in Q4 beyond the run rate that you have shown so far. And maybe if you could just highlight a bit more color on the movements and reserves that you have done year to date by portfolios. Thank you.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

Okay. So let me start on the health side. And this is, I mean, all the options are really driven on health portfolios in EMEA and then APAC. And I think one that I can actually highlight is Australia. You might have seen also the press release that we put out that in Australia we're actually pausing new business because the environment is just not sustainable. And this is a market issue. This is not a Swiss issue. This is a market issue that's really driven by the environment that we have higher claims than what we expected. And that's why we post that business. So I would say that's the core. We give you more details than at the management dialogue, also on the other portfolios, but that's a key element here. And we're not afraid of actually stopping or posting a new business if that's necessary because it's not sustainable in the markets. I think overall, when you look at the reserve development, I mean, I can reiterate what Andreas just said in the beginning. I think we have two main objectives. One is to meet our financial targets, and the other one is to then strengthen the resilience. We've done that already, I think, year to date. You can see that clearly. PNC we talked about. Life and Health, we also – PNC, we also – used the benefit of having a risk adjustment release in Q3 of 170 million immediately kind of repurposed and that because we also had a very positive development coming from the NACAT. So all that together helped us to put more resilience in the balance sheet. It has nothing to do with the U.S. casualty. It's completely different to that, but we took the opportunity now, very strong NACAT results, risk adjustment release, to strengthen the balance sheet that I mentioned in my opening remarks. Thank you, Ilan. Could we have the next question, please?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Jan Pierce, BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jan Pierce
Analyst, BNP Paribas

Hi, afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. They're all on new business CSM. So when I look at the new business CSM for the non-life divisions, if I just look at Q3 standalone, they're down by, 30% to 35%. I'm just wondering if you could run through why this has been such a big move. I know it's not a massive quarter for P&C really, but of course it seemingly is quite a big quarter on new business CSM. So why are they down so much on Q3 standalone? And same for the life business where clearly X Med X, it still looked like the new business CSM would be down quite a lot. So just trying to understand that as well. Any comments? We're ready, so thank you.

speaker
Andreas Berger
Group CEO

Just quickly, before Anders answers, this Med-X that was mentioned here, that's actually the Corsor Med-X business in Ireland, where the minus 400 million was stated.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

Yes, I think Corsor is clear. I think Andreas mentioned it. It's really the Med-X business. On the life and health, I mean, It can be a bit lumpy here because life and health, obviously, it also depends on the transactions. Didn't have transaction Q3. So year over year, we were slightly down. Actually, compared to Q2, we're up. So I think overall, I think I'm actually pretty pleased with the life and health CSN despite having not had transactions. Obviously, when you have transactions, you have additional CSN. And then on the P&C side, I would say it's mainly driven by the property prices that are coming down that we see. I think other than that, we're pretty comfortable with the new business that's coming through.

speaker
Andreas Berger
Group CEO

Yeah, and let me make a general statement again on this top line growth aspect versus profitability bottom line view, and the reason why we don't put out growth targets because And I repeat myself again, in our industry, there's no problem to grow. If you want to grow, you can grow. And we learned our lessons, by the way, ourselves also in Swiss Reef. The importance is here to manage volatility and to manage cycles. And this is critical. Our customers, the seedings, but also the corpus and the public entities, they rely on us being resilient even in the stressful market cycles and market environments. And that's why we put the emphasis, really, on the healthy portfolio and also on growing the bottom line, which is that forces us also to find attractive growth pools where we can then go after. So that's the general statement I wanted to make.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

Thank you. Ian, could we have the next question, please?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from James Schack from CT. Please go ahead.

speaker
Ben Cohen
Analyst, RBC

Thank you, and good afternoon. I'm probably going to go over a couple of areas again, if you don't mind. So on life and health re, I think on the call last time, Anders, I was kind of asking you about the outlook for the experience variances and and lost components, which have been negative previously. And obviously, we've got the same thing coming through, you know, just now. You previously indicated you expect those trends to zero. I presume that the actions you're taking today means that that trend should actually accelerate. So really kind of just getting an insight into that kind of glide path to getting to zero. So should we expect 2026 to be a clean slate? in terms of the experience variance. And I kind of think linked to that, it's kind of the CSM amortization rate has much higher than the 8%. And I think when I asked previously, you suggested that, you know, it would come down. It wasn't clear to me why it would come down. And obviously, you've guided 8. It's running around 10. So, just came to get an outlook for the amortization, please. Secondly, it was also actually on the P&C new business CSM, which is obviously down very sharply in the third quarter, as Ian highlighted. I understand what you're saying about not having top-line targets, but on the other hand, margins are very good and should be able to deploy capital incrementally. So, You know, if I look at your target capital over time in recent years, you haven't actually managed to deploy any incremental capital over the last kind of two or three years. And I'm kind of wanting to get an insight, particularly on that PNC RE-ME business CSM in terms of the outlook, you know, there. And I appreciate you might return to this at the Management Dialogues Day, but I think it's an important point to try and get this feel for, you know, are you still able to grow your earnings through a soft cycle? Thank you.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

Yes, sure. So maybe James has to start on the life and health side. I think you're absolutely right. I mean, the whole objective of what we're doing here is to reduce the experience variance, and it should come to zero. I mean, you will always see normal volatility. That's clear over the quarters. But the volatility for the full year should be close to zero, if not actually positive. That's where we're going to go in the long run. So that's why we took these actions. The other reason also, I think, you know, when we looked at these portfolios, all assumption changes here went through the – because it's onerous business. It's even more important that you take these actions up front because you don't want to have that noise in the P&L. I think that's really the driver. On the CSM release, on the CSM amortization, I think we mentioned a couple of times now that we're running higher than the guidance we gave you. I think this is something that we will address at the management dialogue. We'll give you full guidance where we're going to expect that coming forward, because we need to make sure that the guidance is what we see, and we saw a higher release than what we guided you to. On the P&C new business CSM, that's down here today. I mean, maybe another, just, I think you mentioned this before, your colleague mentioned before, we obviously talked now about the smaller business, portion that was renewed in Q3. Because until Q2, the CSM was actually in line with previous year. Now you see it coming down from a small portion that got renewed. Mentioned, of course, it was driven by the prices, also driven by the casualty pruning that we still continue on a relative basis. I think casualty overall, I think we're fine now with the market positioning. I mean, look, the outlook, I think we will see. We're very comfortable with the margins that we're writing. Andreas mentioned that before. We're still in a good position, but we manage to margin, and we just don't manage to volumes. And actually, that's why CSM is a good measure. That's why we're also explaining it to you that way, because it talks about value. It doesn't talk about volume. It talks about value. But obviously, it reflects if you have business exchanges in the business where you basically move to the more profitable ones And that's exactly what we did.

speaker
Andreas Berger
Group CEO

I don't know, Andreas? Well, I mean, I can maybe just report out quickly from the discussions I have on the renewal side, you know. And we're just in the midst of a negotiation. So I don't have any indication to panic. We're still in very healthy territory. And I'm very careful to guide you here because we're in the midst of discussions. But you can already sense that I'm not pessimistic here about the outcome of the renewal. It's very constructive and in cases even I would say for me quite optimistic. So let's see. The teams are working hard. Thank you, Jay. Could we have the next question, please?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from . Please go ahead.

speaker
Vinic
Analyst

Hi. It's good afternoon. Thank you. I mean, some of these topics have been addressed, so I will just have one maybe, one theoretical question, really. You know, the fact that we've had two good quarters on tax means obviously the targets are achievable easier, a bit easier. So I would say, was that one of the reasons why this Life and Health Review was initiated or actually you would have initiated that even if 2Q and 3Q were normal cat quarters because in that instance it might have been that the targets would have been a bit more difficult to reach so I'm just curious about that and also one question if I can ask on corporate solutions where the price price cuts and, you know, it's a bit worse, minus 7 on this quick check of 3Q. Could you comment on how the inflation or business mix or something else is changing to get good numbers on Corso, which obviously are held by CAATs, but I understand even the underlying is good. So could you explain a little bit about the margin management at Corso and with minus 7% pricing.

speaker
Andreas Berger
Group CEO

Thank you. Just moving quickly on the first one. Yes, of course. I mean, we're doing quite well at group level. And that helped us to take the decision on the life and health actions. And this is very clear. By the way, we're consistent with all the meetings that we had before the call, you know, in the last quarter or month. where we continuously were telling that resilience of the group is really one of our two priorities, and should we be in a position to do that and still make our group targets, why wouldn't we do this? So bring this, what you call theoretical questions to a very concrete action now. On COSO, I think COSO, like all other companies in that sector, have produced very good numbers. They're in a very healthy margin space. If you see slight reductions on growth, that's the same as in reinsurance. We're still very, very healthy in the long-term pricing adequacy, as we call it. So I'm not nervous about this. Now, the What's the focus of Corso? Corso doesn't want to play in this very commoditized space where the pricing pressure is really increasing due to increased competition. Corso wants to play their advantages in the differentiation, international programs and alternative risk transfer. And I think this is a sweet spot because some of the very large corporates take premium out of the markets. and manage it via the captives. And there they need support through alternative risk transfer tools and solutions. The same actually also you can see in the reinsurance market. The very large players think of taking business reinsurance premium out of the market and try to find structured solutions, maybe some access to alternative capital solutions, et cetera. And again, here we are best positioned to give not only advice but also solutions and those also generate revenues. So overall, for us, not a situation to be nervous in, but we're observing, obviously, and we're growing in areas predominantly where they're not correlated with the lines of business that have a stronger decline in rates. Thank you, Vinic. Could we have the next question, please?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Wilhart Castle from UBS.

speaker
Wilhart Castle
Analyst, UBS

Please go ahead. The first one is just coming back to something being discussed a bit, but just trying to verify that $250 million outsized comment, the bit relative to that. Are you saying it's not my chance that it can escalate further from this $250 million already done or another $250 million? And just to be clear on it, have you moved up on an actuarial margin basis or this is still best estimate still? Coming back to the $1.5 billion higher revenue 2H on 1H, FX hasn't really changed too much, and I guess you knew the parameter deviation already. Of the reduced number that you're thinking about now, how much of that's been a bigger NDIC impact and therefore maybe a combined ratio offset, or is it purely organic growth driven? Thank you.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

Okay, so just to confirm what we said on what we meant is that for Q4, because we continue to clean up the life and health, the smaller life and health portfolios, you should not expect an impact that is bigger than the impact we saw in Q3. So to your question, to be very precise, this would be on top of the 250 that we see. It's not more than 250 in Q4. That's in a way what I would expect. Now, we haven't done it. We're not fully, fully done. So we're going to give you the final update at the management and dialogue. That's where you should then see much more details, but that's kind of the direction of travel that we're telling you at the floor. On the revenue side, yes, I think once we have the final run rate now, I think we're fully on this new adoption of the NDIC methodology that we introduced last year. So you should then see, based on that, a smaller revenue just for the same business on a relative basis, which has marginal impact on combined ratio. That's absolutely correct. Thank you, Will. Could we have the next question, please?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Ben Cohen from RBC. Please go ahead.

speaker
Ben Cohen
Analyst, RBC

Oh, hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. I had two questions, please. Firstly, on the life and health side, could you talk a bit more about the areas in where you did see new business CSM growth? I think you flagged and health and longevity in ENEA, and specifically, I guess, you know, the reasons why you feel confident to kind of grow those business lines, but perhaps particularly with regards to longevity. And my second question was in course on P&C, I think on a nine-month view, the expense ratios rose reasonably materially year over year. Were there some one-off features in there? Do you need to do more to address costs because of the top-line pressures that you're seeing? Thank you.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

Okay. So maybe I start on the life and health side with the new business CSM growth errors. I think we will continue to see new business CSM growth on mortality, the classical mortality that we write. That's still a big driver. We have a lot of contracts there and there's new business coming in there. which is good. Longevity is, I would say, a new area that for us became quite important, and we saw some traction there during the year. So it's something that will develop. We'd love to do more in the U.S. on the longevity side. I think the problem there is just I think people need to start to realize that they actually have an issue because the local RBC framework in the U.S. doesn't really reflect that, and you don't have a longevity chart. But I think the discussion we already have with clients is that This is a topic that will come over the next three years. And then still Asia is a growth driver where we will see CSM growth and particularly also on the health side after we have fixed all of the issues on the Inforce.

speaker
Andreas Berger
Group CEO

So maybe on your expense ratio, the increase of expense ratio is not business-driven, you know, and The reason why in Q3 we've got 3% year-on-year increase, that's mainly due to restructuring costs. We have restructured parts of the businesses. For instance, in Corso, we've decided to exit the aviation business and concentrate the underwriting on the reinsurance side. So there were costs attached to that, the restructuring costs. Then we had a slight increase in volume-driven commissions. due to shift of some of the businesses, in particular when you go into businesses that are more volume or facility-driven, and also specialty lines, those have elevated commission levels, and then also slightly the lower insurance revenue. I think that I would look at it. Now, we don't look at a quarterly basis for the expense management side, you know, because overall we see a very positive trajectory by reducing, actually, the expenses because the actions that we took now are coming through and we see it in earning through then also. So, I actually applaud then Corsair to address these things in a situation where Corsair was really performing very, very well. That's the moment when really to address those things. So, you will expect the expense ratio going down. So, remember, we put out the number bigger than 300 million cost savings targets overall, and we're very, very well on track to achieve this. So, even along this year, we are exceeding the 100 million. So, we're well on track to achieve this by 2027.

speaker
Andrew Dacre
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

And we will provide details on that. Yeah, absolutely. Thank you, Ben. Could we have the next question, please?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

There are no more questions from the phone.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

There seems to be maybe one more.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

We actually lost him, so he probably decided not to ask the question anymore.

speaker
Anders Malmström
Group CFO

Thank you very much for all the questions and your interest. Should there be any questions outstanding, as always, please do not hesitate to contact the IR team. With that, thank you for attending the call, and have a good weekend. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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