Swiss Life Holding AG

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Swiss Life presentation of the Half Year Results 2024 conference call and live webcast. I'm Sandra, the course call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants have been listened only mode and the conference has been recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and 1 on your telephone. Webcast viewers may submit their questions or comments in writing via the relative field. Kindly note that webcast question will be answered after the call. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Matthias Ehrlich, Group CEO of Swiss Life. Please go ahead, sir.

Dear analysts and investors, good morning. Thank you for taking the time to join us today. And welcome to our conference call on the 2024 half-year results. Let me start with a quick overview on slide three. Our CFO, Marco Cerussi, will then comment on our performance in more detail. I'm very pleased with the development of Swiss Life in the first six months of 2024. First, fee results increased by 17% to 395 million, driven by high contributions from asset managers and friends. Cash remittance grew by 19% to well over $1.2 billion. This is a very pleasing figure. A flag that the full year 2023 call, it includes two positive one-off effects of about $0.12 billion. Taking the past two and a half years of cash remittances together, we arrive at a cumulative remittance of $3.4 billion. we have thus already exceeded our cumulative target of 2.8 to 3 billion. This is a strong achievement. Our business divisions have done a great job navigating the changes in the interest rate environment. Third, the annualized return on equity was at 17.8% and therefore well above our target range of 10 to 12%. Increase was driven by the development of shareholders' equity. net profit for the half-year was stable at $632 million. On an adjusted basis, net profit increased by 7% year-on-year. In addition, the half-year SSD ratio of around 205% remained well above the envisioned range. This is a strong set of figures, and I want to thank our customers for their trust and our employees and advisors for their continued engagement. To wrap up, we are well on track with our Swiss Life 2024 program to achieve or exceed all our group financial targets. We have already exceeded our cash remittance and share buyback targets, and we expect to exceed the return on equity and dividend payout ratio targets. As a reminder, we have the ambition to increase dividends per share. Regarding the fee result, we continue to expect to reach the lower end of our ambitious target range of 850 to 900 million. The results of asset managers over the first six months of 2024 give us confidence in this respect. The target achievement remains reliant on the further normalization of the real estate markets in Germany and France. With that, I hand over to Marco, who will take you through the half-year 2024 financial results in more detail.

Thank you, Matthias. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I am pleased to walk you through our 2024 half-year results, and I will start with selected P&L figures on slide 5. Half-year 2024 figures and the comparative period are both based on the IFRS 17 and 9 accounting standards. Insurance revenue increased by 1% to 4.5 billion. Higher PIA revenues from France and international were partly offset by a lower CSM release. Insurance service expenses increased in line with insurance revenue to 3.8 billion. The net investment result amounted to 491 million. It includes IFRS 17 related insurance finance expenses and VFA experience adjustments and is therefore not comparable to the net investment result under the former accounting. Profits from operations increased to 883 million. Borrowing costs were essentially stable at 66 million. The income tax expense increased to 184 million, mainly due to the impact of 32 million from an extraordinary tax provision release in the prior year period and the higher operating profit. Net profit was at 632 million. The prior year included the just-mentioned extraordinary tax provision release. Adjusted for this and for negative ethics translation effects, the net profit increased by 7%. Let me comment on some additional figures. Growth rate in premiums, fees, and deposits received increased by 3% in local currency to 11.7 billion, mainly driven by France. Fee and commission income was up by 7% in local currency to 1.3 billion, primarily due to higher contributions from France and asset managers. The net investment income of the insurance portfolio for own risk increased to 1.9 billion. Operating expenses increased to 1 billion. On slide 6, we show the adjusted profit from operations. It increased by 7% year-on-year, taking the negative FX translation effect into consideration. We are now moving to our segments, starting with Switzerland. Premiums increased by 1% to 6.1 billion. The life insurance market was up by 1%. Premiums in individual life were up by 10%, while the market increased by 3%. Periodic premiums grew by 1%. Single premiums increased by 27%, driven by a modern traditional product. Premiums in group life decreased by 1%. The market was flat. Single premiums increased by 2%, primarily due to higher new business Periodic premiums fell by 3%. Assets under management in our semi-autonomous foundations increased to 7.6 billion compared to 7.1 billion at year-end 2023. BN commission income was up by 7% to 167 million due to higher income from Swiss Life Select and the unit-linked business. The segment result decreased by 2% to 439 million due to a lower operating result from insurance business. The CSM release in the VFA business came down from a very high prior year level, but assets not acting life insurance liabilities contributed more. The fee results likely decreased to 26 million. Higher income was more than offset by investments in growth initiatives. The value of new business decreased by 5% to 190 million, mainly due to the business mix and pricing effects, as well as lower interest rates. Cash remittance was up by 31% to 699 million, driven by a higher 2023 statutory profit and by the non-remitted part of the 2022 statutory profit. Turning to France. Please note that all figures quoted are in euros for our French, German, and international segments. In France, premiums increased by 11% to 3.8 billion. The total market was up by 12%. In our live business, premiums were up by 12%. The market was up by 13%. The unit link share in our live premiums was 66%, while the market was at 38%. Live net inflows were at 1 billion versus total market net inflows of 16 billion. Health and protection premiums grew by 6%, driven by price increases. The market was up by 9%. E&C premiums were up by 7%, mainly due to motor products. Fee and commission income rose by 29% to 295 million. About two-thirds of the increase was due to higher unit-linked fee income based on higher average unit-linked reserves. The remainder was due to banking business with continued high revenues from structured products. The segment result grew by 18% to 192 million. The operating result from insurance business increased due to health and protection, partly offset by P&C. The fee result was up by 28% to 102 million, driven by both the unit links and the banking business. The value of new business increased by 15% to 98 million. Higher volumes in the live business with a higher unit link share were partly offset by lower volumes in health and protection. Cash remittance increased by 15% to 178 million due to a higher 2023 statutory contribution. Moving on to Germany. Premiums were up by 3% to 739 million driven by modern, modern traditional and disability products. The market was down by 3%, driven by lower single premiums. Fee and commission income grew by 5% to 400 million, mainly due to owned IFAs. The number of financial advisors was stable at 6,020 year-on-year. The segment result was down by 2% to 113 million. Fee results slightly increased to 77 million following strong growth in the prior year period. This was outweighed by a slightly lower operating result from insurance business. The value of new business decreased by 31% to 26 million, driven by a lower unit link contribution and interest rate effect. Cash remittance increased by 7% to 101 million due to the 2023 fee result development. Turning now to the international segment. Premiums decreased by 6% to 1.3 billion. Higher premiums from business with corporate clients, in particular from Elite's Life, were more than offset by lower premiums with private clients. Fee and commission income was down by 3% to 192 million. Income from private clients and owned IFAs increased. This was more than offset by lower income from corporate clients, in particular from Elite's Life. As mentioned in the Q1 call, the acquired business from Elite's Life was fully re-insured. The renewed and the new business is partially re-insured and to risk premiums as expected. The segment result was up by 15% to 63 million, mainly driven by a higher operating result from insurance business. The fee result decreased by 2% to 44 million due to a lower contribution from the business's corporate clients, which was partly offset by owned IFAs. The value of new business decreased by 15% to 28 million due to business mix and volume effect. Cash remittance was up by 3% to 56 million, driven by the business with corporate clients. Let's move now to our asset manager segment, which reports in Swiss francs. Asset manager's total income was up by 15% to 506 million. In our PAM business, total income was up by 15% to 177 million. About half of the increase is due to higher recurring income, and the other half is due to higher non-recurring income. In our TPAM business, total income increased by 14% to 329 million, mainly driven by higher other net income from real estate projects developed. Three-quarters of the increase relates to revaluation gains, which are non-cash. Recurring income was up, even a higher average asset base, and was offset by lower non-recurring income from real estate transactions and negative FX translation effects. The share of total non-recurring income for DPAM, meaning commission income as well as other net income, was 20% of total income and therefore above the prior year-hard year level of 11%. For the full year, For the full financial year 2024, we expect the share of total non-recurring income to be around 30%, given our pipeline. The segment result increased by 30% to 154 million. The contribution of PAM was up by 11% to 93 million, driven by top-line developments. The DPAM contribution increased by 73% to $61 million, driven by higher other net income, which was partly offset by investments in growth initiatives. The cost-income ratio was 90% largely due to lower net commission income and investments in growth initiatives. Cash remittance increased by 9% to $239 million. Despite the lower 2023 annual net profit, this increase is driven by time lags between recognition of net income from project development and the distributable cash. As a result of different lags from several projects over time, there is some averaging in their contributions to the overall cash remittance, which supported cash remittance in 2024, as outlined during our full year 2023 call. Assets under management in our TPAM business were at $117 billion compared to $112 billion at year-end 2023, driven by positive performance and ethics translation. Net new assets in our TPAM business amounted to $1.2 billion compared to $6.9 billion in the prior year period. Inflows in real assets were at $0.9 billion. Over the summer, we attracted additional mandates. As of end of August 2024, total net new assets amounted to 3.5 billion, of which half was in real assets. For the full year 2024, we expect the NNAs to be around double the August figure. Let's move back to the group. Operating expenses increased by 8% in local currency to 1 billion. Those include effects from investments in business growth, such as the new index-based investment offering from asset managers. Coming to the investment income. Direct investment income on slide 14 increased to $2.1 billion. Bonds, equities, and real estate contributed more, while this was partly offset by lower income from alternative investments and negative FX translation effects. The non-analyzed direct investment yield increased to 1.5% compared to 1.4% in the prior year period. The net investment income was up to 1.9 billion, driven by the direct investment income and supported by the development of net capital gains and losses. The non-analyzed net investment yield was 1.3% compared to 1.2%. Net capital gains and losses amounted to minus 46 million compared to minus 96 million in the prior year period. This improvement was due to real estate and infrastructure investments while the equity contribution declined. Slide 15 shows the structure of our investment portfolio. The share of equities and equity funds increased mainly due to higher valuations. Our net equity exposure after hedging amounted to 4.2%. With respect to real estate, fair value changes were negative at 280 million or minus 0.7%, while in the prior year period, we had negative fair value changes of 426 million or minus 1%. For the full year 2024, we expect real estate fair value changes to remain in the range of minus 0.5% at minus 1%. Real estate continues to be an attractive and important asset class for backing our long-dated liabilities in the context of higher disciplined asset and liability management. As you know, we hold real estate because of the regular rental income it provides and not because of appreciation. Vacancy rates were essentially stable at 3.1%. For the full year 2024, we expect vacancy rates to remain at around this level. Moving on to insurance reserves on slide 16. Insurance reserves were stable at 180 billion in local currency. On a statutory basis, we released about 0.15 billion of statutory reserves in half-year 2024 in the Swiss group and individualized businesses. The pre-tax CSM at the end of June 2024 amounted to 15.3 billion and relates to a large extent to our VFA business. During the first half of 2024, the sum of expected business contribution and new business increased to CSM by 0.7 billion. The experience adjustments and actuarial assumptions were at plus 0.1 billion, while the impact from economic variances was minus 0.3 billion. The latter was mainly due to the widening of interest rate differentials and lower Swiss interest rates. This is partially offset by the positive equity market performance and positive ethics translation effects. The CSM release, reflecting the pre-tax profit that is recognized in the P&L, was at 0.6 billion. The annualized pre-tax CSM release ratio was around the full year 2023 level. The new business margin was at 3.8% compared to 4% due to lower interest rates, volume, and business mix effects. The value of new business decreased by 4% to $266 million. Shareholder's equity decreased by 7% to $7 billion compared to year-end 2023, largely driven by the dividend payment and the completed shareback in March 2024. Our total outstanding financing instruments amounted to $5.6 billion, of which $425 million pertained to a hybrid bond that will be redeemed end of September. The SST ratio was estimated to be around 205% at the end of June 2024. It decreased compared to January 2024, mainly due to the widening of interest rate differentials and the deduction of the mentioned 425 million hybrid bonds, which will be repaid end of September 2024. The SST ratio remains well above the ambition range of 140 to 190%. That brings me to our Swiss Life 2024 program and the progress reporting. I will start with the fee income on slide 23. Fee and commission income increased by 7% in local currency to 1.3 billion. Income from owned and third-party products and services was up by 16%, primarily to France. Income from Swiss Life asset managers increased by 4% and from owned IFAs by 2%. Profit from operations was up by 7% to $883 million. The fee result increased by 17% to $395 million. Two-thirds of the increase was driven by asset managers and one-third by France. The operating result from insurance business increased by 1% to $553 million. The lower CSM release was offset by higher additional contributions. about half of them pertaining to assets not backing life insurance liabilities. The other half of the increase came from the French non-life business. This is in line with our statement earlier this year that we expect a significant improvement compared to the full year 2023. The return on equity increased to 17.8% on an annualized basis compared to 15.8% in the prior year period. turning to capital cash and payout. Cash remittance to the holding company increased by 19% to 1.3 billion. This includes the mentioned positive one-off effects of about 0.12 billion pertaining to the tax provision release in 2023 and to the upstreaming of the non-remitted part of the 2022 local statutory profit from Swiss Life AG. Let me also remind you that the cash remittance of asset managers included effects from the outlined time lags, leading to a 20 million increase of the crash remittance in 2024, despite a lower 2023 net profit. On the right-hand side of the slide, we present the cumulative cash remittance since 2022. This amounts to 3.4 billion, exceeding the group's cumulative cash remittance targets of the Swiss Life 2024 program. Liquidity at holding amounted to 1 billion at the end of June 2024 after we completed the 300 million share buyback at the end of March 2024. To conclude, we are very pleased with our half-year 2024 results as we grew the fee result and the operating profit as well as cash remittance to holding and the return on equity. In terms of the Swiss Life 2024 program, we continue to expect to reach the lower end of our ambitious fee result target range of 850 to 900 million. The results of asset managers over the first six months of 2024 give us confidence in this respect, while the target achievement remains reliant on the further normalization of the real estate market in Germany and France. Regarding our other financial targets, we expect to exceed the return on equity and dividend payout ratio targets. And as a reminder, we have the ambition to continue to increase dividends per share. In addition to that, we have already exceeded our cash remittance and shareable back targets. Overall, we are well on track with our Swiss Life 2024 program to achieve or exceed all our group financial targets. With this, I hand back to you, Matthias. Thanks for listening.

Thank you, Marco. We are now ready for the Q&A session. Who would like to start?

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on the touch-tone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2. Questions on the phone are requested using only handsets and eventually turn off the volume of the webcast. Webcast viewers may submit their questions or comments in writing by the relative field. Kindly note that webcast questions will be answered after the call. Anyone with a question may press star and 1 at this time. Our first question comes from Peter Elliott from Kepler-Chevreux. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. I have three questions, please. The first one, just on the reserve releases, would you be able to say what these were in individual life? Apologies if you haven't, I missed it. I don't think it is. And would you be able to update us just on the outlook, given the current interest rate level? The second one was, obviously, you transferred some real estate assets from policyholder monitor TPAM at the start of July. And I'm just wondering if you could give us the cash implications of that deal. And also, whether you consider this sort of one-off or whether there's potential to do more of that going forward. And the third one, I was wondering if you could just spit out the economic variances in the CSM walk. I guess I'm aware that the interest rate differentials seem to move sort of further against you in H1. And I'm wondering what impact that had in particular. Thank you very much.

Okay, thank you, Peter. I will take the first two questions. Marco will then come back to the third question. Now, in terms of the reserve releases, let me put what we just said in the bigger context. We said for the first half of 2024, we have reserve releases of about 0.15 billion. And this 0.15 billion is consistent with what we reported for 2023. For the full year, you know, that was then the 0.3 billion, which back then we said is the run rate and which we say for the full year that 0.3 billion is also the run rate that we see in the current interest rate. Environment and in terms of the share, of individual life, and that's what we also said earlier. It's about the one-third of those reserve releases that relate to individual life. So that's essentially the confirmation, what we told six months ago at the full year disclosure. Now, in terms of the second question, this policyholder, Asset transfer to team and we do not disclose. Let's say a cash impact on that But what you can assume that even we have Significant unrealized capital gains on a local statutory basis that there was a positive contribution to that in terms of let's say the outlook on that this is a kind of a let's say, to offer this kind of balance sheet real estate afterwards to third-party clients. That's something we have done over the past, and I think it's fair to assume that this was not a special transaction, if you wish. What was special, it was one of the largest, let's say, transactions, the largest transaction securitization of real estate And we can confirm that this has been absorbed well in the market. And it shows, by the way, also what we mentioned Q1, and fully it is renewed interest from investors, institutional investors in real estate. So I think that was it on the second question. With that, I hand over to Marco for the economic variants.

Thanks for the third question in terms of the economic variances in the CSM. I mean, there's overall some positive and negative effects. Overall, the negative effect, the 0.3 billion, which I mentioned on the slide, of the economic variances, they are mainly driven by the interest rate development. And saying that, particularly the interest rate differential between the Swiss franc and the US, and the lower Swiss francs interest rates with a negative effect. And there is some offsetting position, so it's mainly the equity market performance, positive equity market performance, and some ethics translation effects netting that down to the minus 0.3 billion we see in the economic variances. So it's mainly the interest rate environment.

Great. Thank you very much.

The next question comes from Farouk Hanif from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Hi, everybody. Thank you very much. I've got three questions as well, actually. Thank you very much. So first question on the French non-life result. So you said it would improve, but it's really improved with a bang. I mean, it's been very strong. Can you talk about the sustainability of that number, I think roughly 58 million SysRanks, and how we should think about modeling that going forward? Secondly, also, I guess, related to France, your growth in own and third-party product fee income was also exceptionally strong. What's going on there? And again, what's the outlook, I guess, for that business? And then finally, in your Swiss business, your new business sales in the first half grew by... decent amount. I'm guessing that's kind of individual life related. Is there any seasonality that we should be aware of between 1H and 2H? I mean, are you expecting this kind of level of growth in the second half as well? If you could comment on that. Thank you very much.

Let me again take the first two questions. Marco will come to the third one. In terms of the French non-live business, I think I go back to what we reported then at the full year. At the full year, it was clearly, full year 2023, we clearly had a significantly negative contribution from the French non-live businesses. And back then we said that we are working on, let's say, turning that business around and turning that business significantly into the positive territory. I think in H1 we now have seen that we're here on track and we confirm essentially what we said in the full year disclosure. I think what is important, and I may have not fully understood your question about the $58 million there, there's nothing from the bank that is included there. Now, coming now to the fee result, I think that was your second question, the growth of own and third-party products. You know, there is what we call this private insurer model that is essentially at the heart of the success there. And one element clearly is the growth of the unit-linked business that was essentially contributing to thirds. of the growth. I mean, we have been working there now for many, many years in the unit link business. You know, the French business has been positioning itself in the higher segment there and is now for many, many years outperforming the mark, be it in terms of share of unit link, client access and the like. The second element is the bank, Swiss Life Bank, that offers A range of products and what has been now very successful over the past years is in addition to the normal offering, the structured products. And there we have clearly had a very strong run again in the first half of 2024. You know, those are structured products that have a protocol feature in it and with an let's say the strong performance of the stock market, notably also the French and the European stock market. There we really had structured products being also called and then offering our advisors to see the client again. So we see there a strong appetite in the market and we clearly are enjoying, let's say, this good development As it is kind of, as I said, also influenced by the stock market, we feel a bit of a kind of challenge to make a forecast, but I think we're well positioned here.

Okay, and taking the third question in terms of our individualized business in Switzerland, where we have a very pleasing growth with 10% premium increase of the market, so very pleasing. I mean, overall, there is no seasonality in these products. So first and second half of the year, on average, it could be expected that similar levels on averaging. I mean, around that, interest rates, to some extent, might help. There's some plus and minuses. There's no seasonality in this area of business and individual life.

If I may just quickly return on what I meant by the question on French non-life. I mean, I just wondered whether if we take this 1H result that you've got, if that's a sustainable level, that's really what I was trying to get behind.

Look, I think it's just a bit too early to tell. I think we just referred to the four-year guidance, what we said. full year on full year because we clearly have been working hard on the health and protection business. I mean, to reprice that, as Marco has said, but, you know, the P&C business, there is always some volatility in there. So we confirm what we said in the full year 23 in view of full year 24.

Thank you very much.

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star followed by one. The next question comes from Ahmed Masib from UBS. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. The first one is a clarification of what Marco said on the net new assets in TPM. Is it right that he was saying that you've done 3.5 billion year to date and for full year, you'd expect twice that number, i.e. around 7 billion? because I think the prior guidance was you're going to exceed the full year 23 number, which was 9.8. So just a clarification on that. And then related to TPAM as well, the cost income ratio was 90%, and you indicated some investments going on there. Can you clarify what these investments are and if they're expected to continue? And then finally, on the direct investment yield, which was 1.5%. Last year, it was 1.2%. I know a lot of the investment income on BFA business is in the CSM, but on the statutory Swiss basis, do you expect an uplift in your investment income and earnings from that direct investment yield as well, in addition to the reserve releases that you've already talked about? Thank you.

Okay, thanks. I think Marco takes the first two questions and then we'll come to the third one.

Okay, then in regard to your first question, in view of the NNAs, you're right. We said and then gave an update on the end of August figure, 3.5 billion, which half of it is real assets. And giving that development, we see number at the year 2024 around double this number, which is, as you said, a bit below the 9.8 we've mentioned earlier.

Okay, then I come to the direct investment income question. I think Also, going back to what we said two, three, four quarters and a half years ago, yes, the higher interest rates that we see now will, over time, feed through the investment income both on IFRS, where you say most of it is offset by the, let's say, CSM, but also on a statutory basis. I mean, we see higher income from bonds, we see higher income from real estate. I think that's what we have seen. There are some lag effects because there is indexation, there is averaging, you know, the reinvestment of maturing bonds takes time to go through, but yes, this is also clearly expected on a statutory basis. Here, as you know, there is also the policyholder sharing, as it has been in the past, but those effects are, let's say, feeding through. And to illustrate that a bit, the reinvestment rates that we have in 2024 are around 4%, so we are significantly higher than the numbers we see here for the portfolio.

Regarding the deep time cost income ratio and question to that, I mean, overall, there is several investments in growth we see there, and one to be particularly mentioned is the new offering in the index business by our asset managers that we have recently launched and that is now starting to develop. Yeah, that's mainly these investments that are to be mentioned here.

And are these investments expected to continue over the next few quarters?

Yeah, I mean, overall, yes, it's a new initiative, a business area we've just started. There is some investments over a certain period of time. And along this time, then we will see and also then some returns on that. That's a long-term investment in a new area.

Thank you very much.

The next question comes from Henry Heathfield from Morganstar. Please go ahead.

Oh, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Just two, please. Slide 41. Could you just talk a little bit about the money real estate assets under management that aren't classified under the Swiss Life classification. And then the second question, on slide 50, I'm just wondering, do you track the vacancy rate in the TPAM real estate business? And if so, could you tell us what it is? Thank you.

Okay, let me start with the first question. I was assuming that you referred to the 20.8 billion real estate under administration, and that's, for example, in Switzerland, our managed livid that is essentially doing stuff like rent collection, re-renting things. It's not management, but it's really the administration of property. That's the kind of things that we have here.

It's not assets under management, it's more administration. Is that correct? Yes. Okay, thank you.

And we do that also for third parties, notably. Okay, thank you.

And the second question goes to Marco. So the vacancy rates you asked in the area of T-PAM, Yeah. Let me just quickly check.

I think on the TPAM, we do not give a, let's say, vacancy rate, but we give it for our own portfolio. That's the 3 percent you see on page 53.8 percent for the half-year, 24.

would it be fair to assume it's kind of broadly in line with the PAM or just curious really that it was disclosed for PAM and not TPAM, not that you ever have done it for TPAM, but would it be fair to assume that they're broadly similar?

Yeah, look, I mean, the vacancy rate depends really on the type of, let's say, asset. I mean, We have, let's say, somewhat, and I'm talking about the PAM business, we have on the PAM a clearly lower vacancy rate on the residential compared to the office and the retail. I think that's what is more driving the vacancy rate. And depending on, let's say, what is in a D-PAM fund, the vacancy rate will also depend on the portfolio profile change.

Thank you very much.

The next question comes from Farkar Murray from Autonomous. Please go ahead.

Morning all, just two questions from me. Firstly, please can you just get a sense of how your confidence level has developed over the year on reaching the fee result target range? I ask because at one level you're trimming the net new assets for the year and on the other hand you mentioned improved institutional appetite and actually your real estate revaluations have tipped positively. And then just secondly, In terms of the German IFA business, the number of financial advisors being stable, is that pulling below target in terms of development there, in terms of the advisor number of 6,000? Thanks.

Let me take the first question on the confidence in reaching the 850 to 900. Yes, as said, we continue to be... confident that we reach the lower end of the 850 to 900. We have said that at full year at Q1 and we confirmed that here in H1. We continue to have the caveat and the development of the real estate markets in Germany and France. But I think this expected normalization we have been talking about essentially since 12 months. I mean, we see that now happening. I think going back now six months, I mean, we talked about, you know, macro, let's say, considerations, you know, rates that were expected to be allowed by the central banks. This has happened, albeit not maybe at the The pace that many thought back then, you know, we were talking back then about the continued interest of, let's say, investors in real estate. I mean, we have talked about and we have seen the proof points here. In Switzerland, I mentioned our capital increase in this fund. So I think that the many points that on the macro level we mentioned, six months ago, we see ourselves on track. Also, on the more anecdotal pieces of evidence we gave, I think, in Q1, you know, the sale of condominiums in Germany, we see here much better development than last year. So, this is also kind of on a good track and last, but not least. I mean, results development that Asset Managers gives us the confidence, as Mark already mentioned, we are confirm our expectation for the full year that we will have a non-recurring share of 30% in T-PAM. So I think that's what we can say here. The last element that you referred to is also the fair value changes in real estate where we confirm the expectations that we gave on previous disclosures. But still, as said, The caveat is that we remain reliant on this further normalization of the real estate market in Germany and France.

And in view of the financial advisors, I mean, just that the number is stable compared to the prior year period following strong growth in earlier years we have. Also, sales representatives growing. They're growing at a rate of 3%. Nevertheless, I mean, we invest in recruiting. We see some onboarding. We see also some levers overall. There is some growth, but in terms of the target by the end of the year, this is quite challenging, and we expect some numbers below, somewhat below the target.

The next question comes from Bhavin Rathod from HSBC. Please go ahead. Mr. Rathod, your line is open. You may proceed with your question. Hi.

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I have three on my side. The first one would be on the real estate market dynamics in Germany and France, can you provide some colors on how the market evolved versus your expectation in the second quarter of 2020? So the reason I'm asking is because in the first quarter you had quite strong non-recurring fee generation of around 31%, whereas for the first half of 2024 it was at around 20%. So just trying to get an understanding of how the market evolved versus your expectation. The second one would be on the cash at holding level at 1H24, since you are already at the upper end of your target range of 0.7 to 0.9 billion. Just trying to understand how are you thinking about that cash position or how are you thinking about the excess cash at the holding level. The third and the last one would be on slide 25, particularly relating to the Assets not backing life insurance liabilities of around $90 million. The results seem to be quite strong compared to the full year 23 results. So assuming the real estate fair value losses for full year 24 remains in the range, guidance range that was stated of minus 0.2%, minus 1%, how should we expect these figures to evolve for the rest of the year? Thank you.

Okay, thanks for the three questions. I will take the first one. Marco will start answering the third.

In terms of the assets not backing life insurance liabilities and the growth and the additional contribution we see during half year that was supported by the lower negative value changes also have some other positive market performances in it, and with the market and the further, let's say, normalization and development in that area, we see that number quite developing in a good direction.

Good. Then I will move to the first question. You know the real estate market dynamics in Germany and France. I think if, let's say, looked at from very far away. I mean, the German market is certainly a bit in better shape than France on a relative basis. In Germany, I think we have seen the transaction marking growing. It's a bit less so in France. But I think what is relevant in view of our expectation for the full year 2020 that we see around 30% of non-recurring income. It's the market at large, but also our pipeline that is relevant. In terms of the second question, you know, on the cash to holding, the implications about, let's say, potential measures there. I mean, we have this framework in place, you know, with the two conditions of cash and SST. And, you know, there is no automatism. There's absolutely no change to the approach that we have explained in the past or the way we apply it. So we continue to carefully assess the situation on an ongoing basis. So in a nutshell, there's nothing new to report on that.

Very helpful. Thank you so much.

The next question comes from Spiro from Bernberg. Please go ahead.

Hi there. Thanks for the opportunity. I just have one question mainly on cash returns. I appreciate you completed a 300 million buyback, but it looks like the conditions, the two conditions you have for the buybacks are sort of satisfied. So maybe perhaps give us an update on your thinking when it comes to further distribution of buybacks. Thank you.

Okay, I think that's the framework. You just mentioned it, and part of the framework is also that there's no automatism. There's no way that we change now that approach, so this approach and the way we operate is unchanged. Going forward, continue to carefully assess the situation. As I said, there's no automatism. That's in a nutshell what they can say. No news here.

We have a follow-up question from Farouk Hanif from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you very much. Can you remind us if you've given any sense of whether you still expect 30% non-recurring in future years based on your pipeline and your plans in the asset management commission income?

Look, we talk here about the last year of the program, so it's left 2024. Here we have the expectation of around 30%. What is beyond 2024, we will host an investors day on December the 3rd and we will talk about, let's say, the years beyond 2024. Okay, worth a try.

Thank you very much.

Also, the next question is a follow-up from Masib Ahmed from UBS. Please go ahead.

Just one more from me. On the PAM net income, it was up 15%. Marco, you said I think half is recurring, half is non-recurring project development. Is kind of half of that 7.5% sustainable? So we should expect maybe 165 million of net income from PAM going forward for half a year.

Overall, thanks for the questions. I'll have the question rewrite them. Half of it is recurring and half of it is not recurring. There is some swings in it, so some plus and minuses. Overall, I mean, it will be around this level also, the way forward.

By half of the 15% growth.

Just didn't understand the question acoustically.

Sorry, so it's 177 million at one age. Is that the level you expected to be at going forward for half year?

As I said, there's some plus and minuses on that. On the number itself, we don't give guidance in view of the year end.

Okay, thank you.

We have another question from Farouk Hanif from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Hi there. I'm really sorry for another follow-up question I forgot to ask. It's on cash remittances. So my understanding is you said there's a 0.1 to 0.2 billion one-off in the numbers. And obviously you've given some guidance here on reserve releases and investment income and stat. I mean, if we took the 1.3 that you've shown and we knock off point one to point two is that a good base um to think about future cash remittances and do you i mean would we expect from from you know general trends that that would be something that you could grow from that sort of level just want to understand um how to think about future years basically about cash remittances and i and i get that you you're going to have an investor day but just you know for those of us that sort of want to understand the dynamics of it thank you

Okay, thanks for the question. I mean, the one-off in the current year cash emittance, so the above 1.2 billion, there are two effects we called as a one-off. There is the not remitted statutory profit of 2021. We flagged that as full year 23. and an additional, let's say, around 30 odd million of tax contribution that was part of the 2023 statutory profit of Swiss Life AG. These amount together to 0.12 billion, and that's what we call the one-off that has been mentioned. And we also said there is this, let's say, around 20 million in the cash remittance of asset management in 2024 that we achieved despite decreasing statutory profit or decreasing profit in 23 compared to 22. I think those are the effects and I think that's a good starting point to think about the future. What you also can think about is, you know, we now have the 3.4 billion worth of cumulative cash remittance. You know, over the past two and a half years, we also have lacked what is, let's say, one-off in terms of cash remittance. That might be an alternative way to think about what is in the cards. And we also said, look, the reserve releases that we had in the current, let's say, program, they were of a different nature. than what we expect going forward. Namely, there was more individual life in the current, let's say, program than what we said is the run rate going forward.

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you very much.

You're welcome.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Elich for any closing remarks.

Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to thank you for joining us today and goodbye.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call and thank you for participating.