2/20/2025

speaker
David de la Roth
Director of Investor Relations

Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today for our Q3 fiscal year 2025 results presentation for the nine months ending 31st of December 2024. I'm David de la Roth, the Director of Investor Relations at eDreamSodillo. As always, today's presentation is short and unusual because on quarterly results, we only do a limited financial review, and you can find the results materials, including the presentation and our results report, in the investor relations section of our website. I will now pass you over to our CEO, who will take you through the first part of the presentation.

speaker
Dana
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Edo continues to show very strong growth in Prime subscribers and cash marginal profit margin continues to build as the maturity of Prime members increases. In fact, cash marginal profit margin for Prime in the last 12 months was up 8 percentage points over last year. And that brings it to 46% for the cash margin profit margin for Prime. In addition, we added 305,000 subscribers in the third quarter of FY25. And today, we're already above 7 million members and on track to meet our self-set targets for FY25. Today we'll take you through the key points of our strong performance, and this will include three things. First one is just discussion about the NEO results highlights. Second will be then a review of our strong nine-month results in which the prime model continues to drive very strong growth for us. And then third, we'll conclude today's presentation with some closing remarks. You can all turn now to slide four, which is a summary of our performance for the first nine months of fiscal year FY25. As mentioned, our profit margin has increased significantly due to the strength of our prime model and the increasing maturity of prime members. In turn, this has resulted in cash EBITDA growing 40% year-on-year, and 70% versus the same quarter of the previous year. Some of the key highlights for today's presentation are, first, in the nine months of FY25, the strength of the prime model drove significant growth and has guided improvements in profitability. Specifically, prime members grew 26% year on year, reaching 6.8 million members, with net ads at 305,000. we were on track to reach our three and a half year old self-imposed FY25 target of 7.25 million members. Also cash marginal profit for the nine months of FY25 was 201 million. That's up 27% year on year. And the margin had a six percentage point improvement reaching 38%. It was 41% in the third quarter of FY25, and this makes the progress towards our guidance of 42 to 43% the second half of fiscal year 25. Tashibata for the nine months of FY25 was $124 million. That's up 40%. Year on year and cash, but margin improve 6 percentage points. Versus the 9 months of fiscal 24. More importantly, free cash flow, excluding the non prime working capital. Grew even more and it was 69Million in the 9 months of 25. Versus 36Million in the 9 months of 24. That's a 33Million improvement year on year. And an increase of over 91%. During that period, as a result of the strong free cash flow, the company was already repurchased in the 9 months of this fiscal year, 40.1Million euros of its Treasury shares. As part of our ongoing equity share buyback program for a total amount of around. 90Million euros. And we will continue to buy more, taking advantage of how undervalued we think our shares are. Second highlight is that the prime model continues to drive very strong growth. The growth in prime more than offsets the anticipated decline in the non-prime side of the business and resulted in significant improvements in overall e-new profitability. Prime cash revenue margin for the nine months of FY25 grew by 19%, following this strong growth in numbers and is guided partially offset by the lower RP. Prime cash marginal profit for the nine months of FY25 grew 43%, and the margin had an 8 percentage point improvement year on year. and also prime cash EBITDA for the nine months of FY25 grew even more as we started to leverage a more stable fixed cost base. Together with the strong pipeline growth, prime cash EBITDA grew 52% and the margin expanded by seven percentage points. Third highlight is our outlook. EDU is on track to meet the 180 million cash EBITDA target and prime member target of 7.25 million. We're also on track to achieve our free cash flow, excluding non-prime working capital of over 90 million euros. And that is more than double versus the fiscal year 2024. All of this growth has been delivered despite many industry and other headwinds over the past three years. As guided in the first quarter of FY25, it's important to highlight that we expect to see better year-on-year comparatives in the second half of the fiscal year as our member base continues to increase and the maturity of our prime members grows. Year-on-year comparatives for the remaining part of FY25 are expected to be as follows. Prime members in the second half of the fiscal year are expected to grow around 24% versus March 2024. And the cash marginal profit margins are expected to be around 42 to 43% in the second half, resulting in around 40% cash marginal profit margin for the group for the full year of FY25. Looking into the future, for FY26, we've made public at our Capital Markets Day three new targets. The first one is Prime members, over 1 million new members. Second is cash EBITDA in the range of 215 to 220 million. And the third is generation of free cash flow excluding non-prime working capital of over 120 million euros. And longer term, we've also said that prime members will grow in excess of 10% in FY27 and 28, which shows once again EDU has strong fundamental growth potential beyond FY25, being significantly under-penetrated in many markets. In sum, Prime's proven model continues to drive very strong revenue and profit growth, and it has delivered a significant uplift in profit margins. We believe we have the right model, the right people, and the right structure to seize and deliver on the exciting shareholder value-creating opportunities ahead of us. With that, now let me pass it over to David Alitaga, who will take you through some of the KPIs for our Prime model, and the strong growth in significant profit improvements in the first nine months of FY20.

speaker
David Alitaga
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Dana. If you could all please turn to slide six of the presentation, I will take you through prime model. Adrian's profitability was up significantly due to strong growth of prime members in the year two plus. Cash margin or profit margin for the prime segment reached 46%. Cash EBITDA also rose significantly. In the third quarter of fiscal 25, our last 12 months, prime cash margin or profit margin continued to advance. It increased to 46% from 38% in the third quarter of fiscal 24, an 8 percentage points improvement. Group cash EBITDA for the last 12 months also improved substantially. In the third quarter of fiscal 25, cash EBITDA margin reached 22% versus 17%, in the third quarter of fiscal 24 that's an improvement of five percentage points if you please turn to slide seven let me remind you that when looking at prime versus non-prime we still think it makes more sense to look at our business on a last 12 month basis as prime is an annual subscription business and the non-prime part is quite influenced by seasonality patterns our kpis reported today show strong growth and significant marginal profit uplift Past marginal profit was up 25% over the last 12 months as we have more year two plus members of Prime. Also, Prime's strong growth more than offset the anticipated and planned decline in the non-Prime side of the business as we focus on Prime. We continue to be selective on how we spend marketing and we put more focus on Prime products versus developing products and services for the non-Prime side of the business. As we discussed, our first half results In the third quarter of fiscal 25, we have moved past the one-year period of intermittent access to Ryanair, which had a meaningful impact on the non-prime side of things. This has led to a reduced decline compared to previous quarters, with the third quarter of fiscal 25 down only 6% compared to the third quarter of fiscal 24. That's a notable improvement from the 17% decline of the non-prime side of things in the first nine months. This evolution in the non-prime side of the business contributed to a consolidated 10% increase in revenue margin and cash revenue margin in the third quarter of fiscal 25, compared to a 3% increase during the first nine months. This growth is encouraging, especially considering that the strong growth rates in the prime business were previously offset by the challenges in the non-prime business, partly due to the intermittent access to Ryanair. EDU is fundamentally a subscription business focused on travel. Over the last 12 months, Prime has delivered 67% share of group cash revenue margin and 83% share of group cash marginal profit versus 58 and 71 a year ago. There should be no dispute now that we are a subscription-based business and should be valued as such. As we now have a much larger proportion of our Prime members who have renewed their subscription for a second year, third, fourth year, the level of profitability of Prime continuously improves. If you could all please turn to slide eight of the presentation, I will take you through the financial results in more detail. In the nine months of fiscal 25, we delivered a strong growth in cash EBITDA and substantial improvements in margin as the maturity of prime members increases. In the nine months of fiscal 25, cash revenue margin was 3% higher than the nine months of fiscal 24 and up 10% in the quarter. Cash marginal profit and cash EBITDA improved by 27% and 40%, respectively, between nine months of fiscal 24 and fiscal 25. If we look at the comps quarter on quarter, cash marginal profit improved by 41% and cash EBITDA by 70%. Over the past year, our subscribers have grown by 26% to 6.8 million and our ARPU was reduced by 5.5 euros. As guided in the first quarter of fiscal 25, we have given more discounts to our prime members as our algorithms indicate it is better for lifetime value. As a result of all the above, our pool is expected to continue at around mid 70s for the remainder of the year. Coming back to our nine month P&L, 70% of our cash revenue margin and 87% of our cash marginal profit in the first nine months are now from prime members. As guided, profitability was up significantly due to strong growth of prime members in year two plus. Cash marginal profit margin increased to 38% for the nine months of fiscal 25 from 31% in the nine months of fiscal 24. That's a six percentage points improvement and 41% in the third quarter of fiscal 25, making good progress towards the guidance of the range of 42 to 43% for the second half of fiscal 25. Cash dividend margin in the nine months of fiscal 25 also achieved very substantial improvement and it stood at 23% versus 17% in the nine months of fiscal 24. Cash EBITDA stood at 124 million in the nine months of fiscal 25, up 40% year-on-year. Please turn to slide nine of the presentation. Revenue margin excluding adjusted revenue items was maintained in line with last year. The strong growth of prime revenue margin, which for the nine months of fiscal 25 grew by 18%, following the strong growth in members, was partially offset as guided by a lower ARPU. This strong growth in prime revenue margin as anticipated was partly offset by the non-prime revenue margin, which decreased 17% versus the nine months of fiscal 24. following the switch of our customers from non-prime to prime, and more generally, due to the focus on the prime side of the business. Variable costs decreased by 5% in the nine months of fiscal 25, despite the higher revenue margin, as an increasing maturity of prime members reduces acquisition costs. Fixed costs increased by 7.4 million euros, driven by higher personal costs, and to a lesser extent, higher IT costs. Now that we have reached our recruiting targets, fixed costs will grow less quickly than they did over the last two years. And as a result, we will see more leverage of a fixed cost for the rest of the fiscal year. As a result, adjusted EBITDA for the nine months of fiscal 25 was 79.7 million euros. And that is 123.7, including the full contribution of prime, from 55.5 million in the nine months of fiscal 24. Adjusted net income stood at 14.5 million in the nine months of fiscal 25. Moving now to slide 10, I will take you through the cash flow statement. We closed the nine months of fiscal 25 with a positive net cash from operating activities of 48 million. Net cash from operating activities decreased by 14.5 million versus the nine months of the previous year. while in the third quarter of fiscal 25, we show a very meaningful improvement of 32.5 million, which improves the cash flow year-to-date meaningfully, mainly reflecting, first, the working capital improvements of 18.2 from an outflow of 26 in the third quarter of 24 to an outflow of only 7.9 in the third quarter of 25, driven by a higher increase in prime deferred revenue, higher hotel-related working capital performance and improvement of average basket value in the third quarter of 25 versus the second quarter of 25. And second, while in the nine months of 25, we saw working capital outflow of 27.3 compared to an inflow of 5.6, in the nine months of 24, this difference is primarily attributable to a substantial working capital outflow of 19.4 in the first half. contrasting with a 32 million inflow in the first half of 24, offset by the reversion trend previously described for the third quarter of fiscal 25. We still think that should we see similar performance of the average basket value in the second half of 25 to the way it was in fiscal 24, this would result in neutral non-prime working capital in fiscal 25. We have ample liquidity and headroom to deliver our plans, a consequence of our strong business model, cash generation, and active management. At the end of September 2024, the equity position was strong at 189 million euros. We have continued to invest in our business with 41.6 million euros spent in the nine months of fiscal 25 an increase of 5.6 million as we capitalize our software. Cash used in financing amounted to 54.2 million compared to 17.9 million in the nine months of fiscal 24. The variation of 36.3 in financing activities mainly relates to the acquisition of treasury shares of 40 million euros during the nine months of fiscal 25. I will now turn the presentation back to Dana to do some closing remarks.

speaker
Dana
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, David. Please turn to slide 11 of the presentation. Overall, we're very confident that we'll meet our self-imposed FY25 targets of 7.25 million pound numbers and cash EBITDA of 180 million euros. But more broadly, EDU has huge potential and is delivering superior returns for shareholders and customers while transforming and really revolutionizing the industry. Furthermore, we're confident in the growth and profitability outlined in our FY25 and longer-term values, and also believe the company's worth continues to be unrecognized and undervalued. As a result of this, and due to our strong liquidity and balance sheet, we will continue with our daily repurchase program and we will consider subsequent share buybacks as we continue to generate free cash flow on an ongoing basis.

speaker
David Alitaga
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Dana. And with that, we're going to start taking your questions. The first question comes from Francisco Ruiz, the analyst of BNP Paribas. It says, in order to reach your cash EBITDA target of 180 million euros, you need a growth of more than 50% versus the fourth quarter. This also implies a peak increase in cash marginal profit margin of circa 45%. Is it what you expect? Is the cash marginal profit margin at this level recurring? Look, I'm going to take this one. It's okay. Following the guidance that we have given, directionally we expect to end in a cash margin or profit margin of around 40% for the aggregate. So given the evolution and you've seen the significant progress that we've made throughout the year, those quarter, the second quarter, the third quarter, in the third quarter you're seeing a very important improvement in margins. That trajectory is going to continue. They're going to continue in the fourth quarter and is also going to be sustained by the increased amount of members of Prime that are in their year two plus. And that's what drives the margins. The next set of questions comes from Carlos Treviño, the analyst of Banco Santander. The first one says, you have seen an improvement in the average basket value this quarter. Do you see it sustainable or it was some specific to the third quarter of 25? So it is seasonally normal that from September to December, the average basket value increases. We saw that in the last year, we've seen it in this year, I'm referring to 23 and 24, of course. So this has behaved, let's say, in line with the past history in terms of seasonality. Considering a higher weighting of hotels in your bookings... Sorry, this is the second question of Banco Santander, which I haven't said. Considering a higher weighting of hotels in your bookings, could we consider a different seasonality in working capital moving forward? Would it be correct to assume a better working capital than before in 3Q and 1Q and perhaps less positive one in 4Q. But hotel is a very good opportunity for our business. In terms of working capital, it is, of course, less important in size than it is for flights. It is gaining importance and it is somewhat changing the perspective. So to remind people of the basics, when we sell a flight, We collect from the customer today and on average, we pay to the airlines two weeks after. When we sell a hotel, in general, we collect from the customers today and we actually send the money to the hotelier after the checking of the customer. So there's a slightly different movement there. When we published September, we I think that in September quarter, there is a negative effect because we've been collecting money and by September, all of the check-ins for the summer period have happened in July, August and September. So there's actually an outflow versus the past. That doesn't happen in December where it is, let's say, more of a stable situation. So in December, hotels is a positive contribution to working capital. For the quarter ended March, it depends. It really depends on when the Easter is happening. This year, Easter is happening in April as opposed to March in the previous year. So from a working capital perspective on the hotel side, it should help us in this year. In other years, it depends. Next set of questions comes from Nisla Nacer, the analyst of Deutsche Back. I'm going to read them one by one again. The first one says, reaching the 7.25 million target implies adding around 407,000 net new prime members in the fourth quarter. What would drive the step up in the net additions after the 305,000 done in the Q3? Any specific regions you're targeting more? What I say to this is, yes, your math is correct. And second, it is also correct that if you look at almost every year for the last two or three, there is a significant difference between the net ads that we do in the December quarter and the net ads we do in the March quarter, because December is a low seasonality period. march is a high society period and we actually announced just two or three days ago that we had surpassed in the first half of february the 7 million mark so we are on our track to get to the 7.25 the second question from deutsche bank is how should we think of margin improvement from these levels in fiscal 26 um We expect that the cash and P margin in fiscal 26 is going to continue to advance precisely because of the mechanics that I covered in the previous question from another analyst. You're going to have a continued increase in the percentage within prime of how many members are year two plus versus year one. And on the other hand, you're going to have Prime representing a higher share of the business versus non-prime. Both of those mechanics push to a higher margin. We have, however, not given a specific guidance on margin, which we're not going to give this year, but we stay by the guidance that we provided in our investor day in the month of January, that we will reach a range of cash with DAF from 215 million to 220 million. and we will deliver one more million prime members than we end the year fiscal 25. the third question from deutsche bank is could you kindly remind us again what would be the working capital impact in fiscal 25 what is the non-prime component within this versus prime um assuming that we have uh flat growth sales and um behavior of the basket size similar in seasonality than what we had last year in fiscal 24, we should have by the end of the year a neutral working capital movement. The next set of questions comes from the analyst of CaixaBank, Guillermo Santayo. The first question has already been asked. It's about seasonality of cash and P margin. And the second question, which is about the basket value in Q3 versus Q4, has also been answered. I'm going to move to the questions of Beatriz Rodriguez, the analyst of Betimber. Looking ahead, do you foresee any threats that could impact your estimate of a stable prime ARPU of a range of 70 to 75? Well, ARPO is based on a last 12 months figure, so a good chunk of the ARPO fiscal 2025, at least of the first couple of quarters, is already in the ARPOs of today, and we're already in that range. So I would say that absolutely we're going to be in that range for the beginning of the year. I don't foresee any big changes in that respect, and we stand by our guidance of a range of 2025. The second question of best in bed analyst is how has your company's performance been in non-client products? Is the hotel segment evolving as expected? It is. It is behaving in a very positive view. I encourage you and any other listeners to the call to refer to the materials that we included in our investment presentation about our hotel product. It's evolving very well in terms of attachment, in terms of conversion, in terms of the net promoter score of the product. We have a very good high quality product and it's being very well received by consumers and making progress. The next set of questions, sorry, come from the analyst from . The first question is, do you some, I don't think there's a word mentioned missing here, some initial data on the return of investment from any investments made to grow in newer regions and to penetrate further in existing regions? I think this one's more for Dana.

speaker
Dana
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, David. It's really too early to say. We've just recently launched in a number of test markets, and it's really a test. It'll take us time to gather all the data in those markets. We'll then come back and we'll really assess in terms of the results, the cost benefits of making further investments and upgrades in the different markets, and then really prioritize which ones we really want to push first, second, third, and fourth. So like I said, it's too early to tell.

speaker
David Alitaga
Chief Financial Officer

The second question from this same analyst is, have you had any success in converting previously churned prime members back to members again? The background here is, to grow your penetration in existing markets, you may encounter previously churned members. Could you share some data?

speaker
Dana
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, absolutely. So first of all, I just have to say that we don't disclose churn, like most B2C subscription-based companies don't. It's highly confidential, sensitive, competitive intelligence. Having said with that, we do. In the Capital Markets Day, we did share that we actually had, particularly for the year two plus, had seen a material increase in our ability to retain customers. which is very positive for it. And we continue actually to, if I can call it invest, meaning spend time, effort, energy on this area to really continue to retain more and more of our customers, including even if they've churned. Because again, travel is a less frequent purchase. It's not used, again, being a leisure-focused company, it's not used on, let's say, a daily or weekly basis for most people. so that you absolutely do get back. And we have a whole series of programs to encourage that as well. David, back to you.

speaker
David Alitaga
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. The next question comes from from Power Wealth. And it says, can you reaffirm fiscal 25, free cash flow, excluding non-prime working capital of about 90 million euros. Also, could you roughly guide to what free cash flow looks like, including non-prime working capital for fiscal 25? So to the first part of the question, yes, we reaffirm our guidance of the 90 million. For the second part of your question, there's a little bit of uncertainty, and that's the reason that we use the metric that we use. But referring to one of my previous answers today, Should the seasonal behavior of the basket size be similar to last year, we would envisage that for the aggregate of this year, the non-prime working capital would be about neutral. So therefore, we would see a similar level, also $90 billion for the free cash flow, including the non-prime working capital. and we have no more questions at this point in time so we're going to close here for today and we remain available at the investor relations email address and our phone numbers that you will know very well if you have additional questions on the quarter And before we conclude the call, let me just inform you that on Thursday 29th of May is when we will be hosting our conference call for the full fiscal year 25 resource presentation. Thank you very much. Have a nice day. Thank you.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

-

-