UBS Group AG

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to the fourth quarter 2022 results presentation. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. Should you need operator assistance, please press star and zero. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Sarah Mackey, UBS Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.

Good morning and welcome, everyone. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement slide at the back of today's results presentation. Please also refer to the risk factors in our annual report, together with disclosures in our SEC filings. On slide two, you can see our agenda for today. It's now my pleasure to hand over to Ralph Harmer, Group CEO.

Ralph Harmer, Group CEO, Thank you, Sarah. Good morning, everyone. Great that you're all on the call. I will take you through the results like I used to. In 2020, we delivered for our clients and shareholders, and that was in challenging market conditions. We provided sound advice to our clients, partnered with them to help achieve their goals. Our strategy and what differentiates UBS is clear, and it's shown on this slide three here. We are globally diversified with leading positions across the U.S., Asia Pacific, EMEA, and Switzerland. We have outstanding client franchises, and they're underpinned by a balance sheet for all seasons, a strong risk culture, and an intensified focus on cost. As you know, our business model is highly cap regenerative and supports both strong returns on capital as well as return off capital. If you then move to slide four, you get basically a full year of hard work on one slide. Good financial results in 2020. We achieved our group financial targets for the full year, net profits of $7.6 billion, and our return on CD1 capital was 17 percent, and our cost income ratio was 72.1 percent. Turning to slide five, throughout 2020, we were a source of strength for our clients, and we relentlessly focused on their needs while delivering for them across our platform. And you see the proof points here laid out across the different areas, invested assets, deposits, loans, the global market activities. Across our $4 trillion in invested assets, we provided advice, bespoke services, seamless solutions. We helped our clients to reposition their portfolios in a world that was changing quickly, take advantage of longer-term opportunities as well. Net new fee generating asset flows were 23 billion for the fourth quarter, representing a growth rate of 8%. This resulted in 60 billion of flows for the full year, which translates to a solid 4% growth rate in the context of a global equity market declines. We continue to capture our clients' demand for high yielding products through our savings Our certificates of deposits, our money market funds, money market inflows in asset management were $16 billion for the quarter, and three quarters of that came from GWM clients. And this brought asset management total net new money to $25 billion for the year. Net new deposits turned positive in the fourth quarter, driven by Switzerland and Asia Pacific. And for the full year, we delivered 17% net interest income growth in wealth management and P&C. In the Americas and Switzerland, we delivered positive net new lending in every quarter without relaxing our strict underwriting standards. And this result more than offset the continuing deleverage activity that we see in Asia Pacific. For our institutional clients, 2020 was a tale of two halves, really. The first half of the year was driven by strong equity market activities. with foreign exchange and rates then taking spotlight in the second half. And through a wide range of market conditions, our diversified product mix in global markets, and our agile way of allocating capital and resources where it needs to go, that allowed us to provide comprehensive services to our clients. Record performance in our equities franchise and second-best FRC performance on record helped offset the impact of industry-wide slowdowns in activity across global banking. As a leading global wealth manager, our diversified footprint empowers us to execute our strategy across regions to drive growth and efficiency. And you see an overview of the regional performance here on slide six. The regional picture is very important. That's where the business comes together for our clients. Just starting in the Americas, where our clients continue to turn to us for advice and solutions, client demand for our separately managed account offering remains strong, with another $4 billion in flows in the fourth quarter. Net new money in SMAs totaled $21 billion for the full year. We also saw continued interest in alternatives, leading to $10 billion in net private market commitments for the year. In the U.S., we already have over 20% of the Barron's top 100 private wealth management teams, and we continue to recruit high-quality advisors in the second half of the year to support our industry-leading advisors' productivity. Our recruiting efforts also supported $4 billion in net new fee-generating assets added in the fourth quarter and $17 billion for the full year. Our economists are projecting the $23 billion will be a challenging year for the U.S. economy as inflation and higher interest rates create headwinds for economic growth. Nevertheless, our priority for the region is to drive organic growth and build on our scale with our core wealth and GFIW clients. We will leverage our investment banking and asset management capabilities to deliver the whole of UBS to these clients. We will continue to invest in our digital capabilities to improve client connectivity to our advisors and we will look to become the primary bank for our core clients by improving our banking capabilities. At the same time, our efforts to simplify processes and invest in infrastructure and controls will be complemented by strategic and tactical actions on cost to support improvements in our cost-income ratio. Now moving to our home market, Switzerland. The stability of the economy and our number one position continues to support a record level of deposit and loan volumes, strong profitability, and growth. Net new fee-generating assets flows were 5 billion in the fourth quarter, 9 billion for the full year, and that's a growth rate of 7%. We also saw 8 billion in net new deposits in the fourth quarter and 9 billion for the full year. For 2023, our focus in Switzerland is to deliver above-market growth. We will continue to invest in our strategic technology initiatives, and support our clients' transition to mobile banking while remaining disciplined on expenses. In EMEA, we maintained our momentum with clients in the fourth quarter as well. With $11 billion in net new fee-generating assets for the quarter, we brought in $20 billion for the full year, and that's a 6% growth rate. That's supported by strong flows in the Middle East. In the investment bank, we had our best year on record for both revenue and profit before tax, supported by a record in global markets and outperformance in global banking as well. Elevated and volatile energy prices continue to have a significant impact on macroeconomic activity, although our economies are becoming more and more optimistic about the downturn being shallow. Our optimized EMEA footprint positions as well in the current macroeconomic environment. And this forces the ability to be focused on targeted growth opportunities across Europe and the Middle East. So a strong year for EMEA. And lastly, Asia Pacific. The residual impact of the pandemic and concerns over economic growth consistently weighed on investor sentiment throughout the year. However, our clients' trust in our advice and capabilities led to 12% growth in net new fee-generating assets for the year. In EIB, we moved up five spots to claim the number one position in equity capital markets for non-domestic banks for the full year. We delivered the best M&A on record. And we were recently named the best investment bank in Asia and Australia by Finance Asia. Now, the easing of COVID-related restrictions in China has led to a more optimistic outlook for 2023. We believe 5% economic growth is back on the table for China. and an acceleration of the growth beginning in the next few months. While client sentiment has improved, they are taking a wait and see approach so far. We remain well positioned to support our clients both onshore and offshore in China and the rest of Asia Pacific as activity resumes. Longer term, we remain focused on executing our strategy to capture growth. In October, we launched We.UBS, the first digital wealth management platform from a global wealth manager in China. And in Southeast Asia, we're focusing on expanding our GFIW business to serve family offices, entrepreneurs, Asian technology firms to drive growth. And as you can see, technology is key to many of our achievements this year, and next year will be no different. So I'd like to take you through our technology delivery on the next slide. You can see some examples here on slide seven, how we are investing our $4 billion technology budget to make technology differentiator through simplification, automation, and by improving our clients' experience. And this transition also directly contributes to the bottom line with approximately 200 million in cost savings for 2023, and our plan is to continue to reinvest this. Let me give you some examples of how we're driving this. We now have 18,500 employees operating in Agile. In technology, 68% of these are engineers, and that compares to 55% when we started Agile. So basically you see a 13% point increase, which is a 20% productivity improvement. And next to the efficiencies and the productivity improvement that this brings, it also delivers a faster delivery of technology change. So quicker time to market of improvements. We've also decommissioned 600 applications in 2020 too. and we have now 65% of our computing power on the cloud. As you can see in the next slide, we remain very well positioned for the current environment and maintain a balance sheet for all seasons. In 22, we generated $7.5 billion of capital, of which we distributed $7.3 billion, including a $5.6 billion share repurchase. Our capital liquidity ratios are strong. Our balance sheet is healthy. Our strong balance sheet and risk management discipline allows us to support our clients, meet regulatory requirements, and deliver attractive and sustainable capital returns to shareholders. On slide nine, you can see our progress on sustainability. As you know, sustainability is a core part of our strategy. We reduced our greenhouse gas emissions our own greenhouse gas emissions by another 11%, as we upgrade buildings and continue to source 100% renewable electricity globally as well. We're proud of the progress that we're making on our objective to better reflect the diversity of our workforce in leadership positions, and we expanded our sustainable product offering. And we're proud to maintain our industry-leading ESG ratings here as well. The summary of the financial results, you see that on slide 10. I've already mentioned the good performance for the full year. For the quarter, we had strong flows and we managed the discipline. We had solid results considering seasonality and the macroeconomic backdrop, which enabled us to wrap up the year comfortably within our targets. Slide 11. which is more or less looking forward, we leave our financial targets unchanged. For 2023, we're confident in our ability to deliver 15% to 18% return on CT1 capital and to stay within the range of 70% to 73% of cost-income ratio. Our capital guidance is also unchanged. At our current capital levels, we are in a strong position to fund business growth and a progressive dividend. while returning excess capital to shareholders via some share repurchases. During the first four weeks of this year, we bought back $500 million worth of shares, and we are targeting at least $5 billion for 2023. With that, let me hand over to Sarah. Sarah?

Thank you, Ralph. Good morning, everyone. Starting on slide 13, In 2022, we delivered a good performance in a challenging environment. Our global franchise enabled us to meet our group financial targets, both on a reported and underlying basis, with strong cost control, risk management, and capital returns. Now moving on to the quarter on slide 14. Net profit was $1.7 billion. with a reported return on CET1 of 14.7% and a cost income ratio of 75.8%. The underlying performance is on the page and the delta between reported and underlying is in the appendix. Revenue was down 8% and expense was down 13%. FX impacted both by approximately $200 million for a net effect of negative $25 million. The net credit loss expense was $7 million compared with the $27 million release last year, reflecting great stability in our credit metrics and strong risk management. The effective tax rate in the quarter was 14% plus compared with 21% a year ago due to default tax assets for 2023. We expect it to be around 23%. Let's start with fourth quarter revenue on slide 15. In addition to the usual seasonality, the macroeconomic environment led to depressed equity markets and low levels of client M&A and capital market activity. However, we saw increased activity in fixed income and the benefit of higher rates. As such, our underlying revenue, XFX, was down 9%, with an increase from NII in GWM and PNC, more than offset by lower asset base and transaction fees, as well as lower IB revenue. Moving to NII on page 16 and starting with the top chart, in 2022, We added over $1 billion in net interest income, with the benefits of higher rates partially offset by deposit volume and mix. In the bottom chart, you see the quarterly movements. NII of $2.1 billion was up $263 million, or 14% quarter-on-quarter. This strong result reflects the benefit of a global franchise. with every region contributing across GWM and PNC. Almost half of the increase was in Swiss francs and the rest mostly in euros and in US dollars. As you would expect, the benefit of rates shown in the second bar was the main driver. Moving to deposit volumes, total deposits rose 6% sequentially. This included $9 billion of net new deposits, which reflected a 7% annualized growth rate, and with strong contributions in Switzerland and in APAC. We have seen continued demand for our products in both PMC and wealth management, with the demand for savings products exceeding sweep-out flows. Moving to deposit mix. While the level of sweep outflows was similar to last quarter, we are seeing a deceleration of mixed shifts in US dollars, but some acceleration in euro. We haven't seen any shifts in Swiss francs yet, but we expect deposit mix impacts across currencies. Looking ahead, based on the current forwards, our exposure across Swiss francs, euros, and U.S. dollars means we expect 2023 NII to be higher than 4Q22 annualized. For 1Q23, we anticipate a low to mid-single-digit increase versus 4Q22. Now turning to costs on page 17. For the full year, as you can see on the chart, expense was down 4%, or up 0.7% ex litigation NFX. If you also exclude variable comp, expense was up 2.6%. Decisive and immediate actions on cost in the second half of the year have contributed to us achieving our cost income ratio target for the full year, despite a challenging revenue environment. Moving to the table at the bottom, This quarter's operating expense was down 13% year-on-year. Excluding litigation and FX, the number was up 1%. Inflationary pressures on salaries, higher technology costs, and T&E were mostly offset by efficiencies. For 2023, we expect cost ex-litigation and FX to increase by 2% to 3% year-on-year. We are managing the cost base and giving guidance, considering a range of economic scenarios. The guidance also reflects the annualization of last year's elevated inflation, continued investments, and the expected benefit from efficiencies. Let's turn to these efficiencies on slide 18. In 2021, we announced a $1 billion gross savings program to be achieved by 2023. I am pleased to report that we have already achieved $700 million to date, $100 million ahead of plan. To deliver that result, we effectively implemented a number of measures across the board, including restructuring, structural compensation adjustments, optimizing our footprint, reducing consultant and vendor spend, and executing our tech strategy with discipline. Through the addition of new initiatives, we are now expanding our gross cost savings program by 10% to $1.1 billion, and this is while absorbing FX headwinds of $100 million. We remain laser-focused on cost, and committed to delivering the structural and tactical measures necessary to achieve both our guidance and our target cost income ratio. Let's move to our businesses, started with GWM on page 19. GWM profit before tax in the quarter was $1.1 billion, down 14% on an underlying basis. Revenue was 5% lower than last year, with asset base and transaction revenue down in all regions, partially offset by net interest income. We continue to actively manage deposits across margins, volumes, and mix, driving NII up 35% year-on-year, with positive net new deposits and continued impact of deleveraging on net new loans. Operating expense, ex-litigation, and effects was flat year-on-year. Net new fee generating assets were $23 billion in the quarter, an annualized growth rate of 8%. We had positive flows in all regions, mostly into advisory mandates and SMAs. For the past 12 months, we attracted $60 billion of net new fee generating assets, which represents a 4% growth rate. Moving to asset management on page 20 with a profit before tax of $124 million. Total revenue decreased 31% with lower net management fees driven by market headwinds and FX and lower performance fees. The cost income ratio was 75% with lower revenue and expense down 4% as we benefited from FX and had lower personal expenses. Net new money in the quarter was $11 billion, of which $16 billion went into money market funds as we successfully captured high-end demand for cash-like solutions. Excluding money market, we saw $4 billion inflows into sustainability-focused and impact investments and $4 billion into SMAs, which were offset by outflows in our active equities and fixed income businesses as clients continue to rebalance portfolios. While the asset management business has been impacted by markets, the franchise has important capabilities in key areas of focus, namely sustainable investments with $178 billion of invested assets, real estate and private markets with over $100 billion, and SMAs totaling $125 billion. Now onto DIB on slide 21. DIB delivered $112 million in profit before tax and a 4% return on attributed equity. Revenue in global markets of $1.4 billion was down 8% XFX against a record fourth quarter last year. In equities, high correlation and the ongoing macro uncertainty dampened client volume particularly in derivatives and cash equities. Our performance in the U.S. was weaker year on year, and we are continuing to invest in the franchise to bolster our capabilities. However, we delivered the best 4Q on record in our FX rates and credit business. Global banking revenue was down 52% in line with very low levels of industry activity. across advisory and capital markets, but with strength in APAC and EMEA. Operating expense was up 12% ex litigation and effects due to compensation adjustments that we made in 4Q21. Despite a challenging 4Q, DIB has delivered another year of strong results with a return on attributed equity of 15%. better revenue on RWA than any US peer, and record revenue in equities, derivatives and solutions, financing, and prime brokerage. This was achieved in a rapidly evolving market context and with one of the lowest banking fee pools on record. Yet, we had record M&A in APAC and we outperformed in EMEA. Wrapping up on the businesses were the excellent performance in P&C on page 22. Profit before tax in the fourth quarter was 504 million Swiss francs, the best quarter in over 10 years when excluding one-off gains. This result was largely driven by 21% higher NII combined with strong cost discipline. Overall, total revenue rose 10% year-on-year, with small decreases in recurring net fee income and lower transaction-based income. We consistently engaged with our clients and were able to deliver $2 billion of net new investment products over the past 12 months, an annual growth rate of 8%. We also sold $7 billion of net new deposits and $4 billion of net new loans. We delivered a cost-income ratio of 54%, and costs were up 1% on an underlying basis. Included in these results are strong efficiencies and technology investments. A good proof point is the increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year in the share of personal banking clients that are active mobile users, which benefits our clients and creates operational efficiencies. Moving to capital on page 23. At 14.2%, we maintained a strong capital position while delivering attractive capital returns. On the walk, starting at 14.4% at the end of last quarter, net profit contributed 50 basis points, offset by capital returns to our shareholders, also at around 50 basis points. The net currency effect was close to nil as the FX impact on CET1 and RWA offset each other. Looking ahead, our guidance on regulatory-driven RWA remains consistent with last year as shown in the appendix. Separately, we expect the introduction of the minimum tax in the U.S. to increase our cash tax rate and affect our CET1 capital Based on 2022 profitability, this would translate to around 250 million lower CET1 acquisition, which would come back over time, as mentioned in our report. Wrapping up on slide 24, for 2022, we are proud of what we delivered for our clients, for our employees, and for our shareholders. We returned $7.3 billion of capital for a payout ratio of 95%. We are committed to our strategy, to discipline execution, and to creating value for our shareholders. We entered 2023 from a position of strength. We expect to support our client franchises and invest for growth while remaining committed to a progressive dividend and repurchasing over $5 billion of shares. With that, let's open up for questions.

We will now begin the question and answer session for analysts and investors. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and 1 at this time. The first question is from Kian Abou-Hussein from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Yes, first of all, thank you for taking my questions. First question is regarding Asia. And can you just talk a little bit about what you're seeing in Asia? You made a very brief comment, Ralph, but maybe a little bit more. Do you see any re-leveraging change? Do you see any change in transaction volume pickup or net new fee generating asset pickup? And what should we look out for in that respect? in wealth management. Secondly, in respect to forward curves, can you discuss what interest rates you use for the key markets in your assumptions on NRI guidance for first quarter, but also more importantly for 23? And what, can you talk a little bit about BETA in that respect and net interest income forward assumptions for 24, 25, what rates you're using at this point.

Thank you, Kian. So the color I can give is limited, honestly, given the fact that beyond closing the year and this update, there's only like three weeks, three and a half weeks of experience of what we see. But what we can tell you is that, you know, you did see also in the fourth quarter further deleveraging in Asia Pacific. We sensed that towards the end of the quarter that came to a halt there. So too early to say whether that is a stop or not, but that's what we saw. Then in terms of the mood in Asia, I think it's more upbeat. The market's clients are surprised by the quick opening of China, the action-oriented approaches by the Chinese also to embrace the openness to get the economic growth, to get investors in, regulators reaching out as well. So I think that's all very positive on one side. then clearly, you know, the new year started, everybody has their festivities. So the question there is really, you know, how does it kind of, how does this continue then? So for the moment, what we have seen in the recent rally is from our wealth clients, actually a wait and see approach. So in terms of activity level and flows, wait and see as well.

In terms of the forwards, we are following the forwards and we look at them all the time, and so you can use the forwards that are available now or as of Friday for your analysis. So when you think about the rate expectations that we are seeing in the different markets, The Fed continues to increase probably until the first quarter and then stabilizes from there. And then that is SMB going to the 1.5% level, the SEB around the 3%, and then coming down a bit. And Bank of England a bit above that. So we are going exactly with the forward analysis as we do our analysis. In terms of the betas, what I can tell you is that we are really considering the mix of our businesses. We don't disclose specifically the betas, but we are considering all of the mix across GWM and PNC at the granular level. And what you are seeing is the experience that we have had is reflective of actually So far, our models have been productive on the better side. We have seen a fair bit of mix in the U.S., and as I mentioned, in terms of Euro, we are seeing to see some mix, and in Swiss francs, we would expect it to come, but it hasn't come.

Next question.

Thank you. The next question is from Flora Bocahut from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Yes, thank you for taking my question. Good morning. The first question I wanted to ask you is regarding the cost income target, which you have reiterated today for the midterm on 70% to 73%. It's been now, when we look at the underlying profit level, so X, any one of, it's been three quarters that you've been outside that range. So what makes you think you can get back towards the range and how quickly can we expect that you will get back towards that level of cost-income ratio already in the next few quarters? And the second question is just coming back to the net new money in APAC. I mean, obviously, you had a stronger than usual run rate in Switzerland, in Europe, but then not so much in APAC. You're talking about the wait-and-see approach. Would it be fair to say that some of the outflows that have been seen elsewhere may not yet have been transferred to one of the competitors and could be waiting to be picked up. Is that a fair assumption?

So we'll start with the second one and then Sarah can take you through the first one there. So on the flows in Asia, actually we saw healthy flows in Asia. throughout the year really in that new fee generating assets and also in the fourth quarter at 3.4 billion. So that was actually more continuation of flows coming through, very solid client relationships. If your question is to which extent are some of these flows related to the status of other financial institutions, uh you know we we can only say that you know our growth is that is not the primary source of our growth at all uh you should know and you do know that we're the number one wealth manager in asia we have a very clear uh position around how we deal with our clients and also what our risk appetite is with clients um and therefore you know it is more because of what we represent and what we do that we attract these flows than the other way around. Sarah?

In terms of the cost income ratio underlying, when you're looking at what's coming ahead, first of all, you have the benefit of rate. So NII is continuing to be a strong contribution to our result. Second of all, you've got the contribution from the float that we are continuing to generate. And after that, in terms of the equity markets, obviously, there are different ranges of scenarios, and everybody can make their assumptions there. In terms of the cost side, you're seeing us be very rigorous there. And so the expense guidance that we gave you, 2% to 3% XFX and litigation, is, of course, reflected in our cost-income ratio guidance.

Thank you. Next question is from Andrew Combs from Citi. Please go ahead.

Good morning. One on capital return and then one on FX. If I look at capital return, you've got it's greater than $5 billion for the buybacks. I note the greater than comment. I guess my question would be why did you not feel comfortable coming out with guidance that was more similar to full year 22, so the 5.6 that you executed? I know you flagged the CMT tax change in the U.S., but just trying to understand your rationale for why only the greater than five, which is obviously less than what you did achieve last year. And then my second question, just on FX, I know your cost guidance for the growth in 2023 is FX movements. Obviously, the FX move overall should be a a tailwind this year for you in terms of profitability, but potentially a headwind to your cost line. So perhaps you could give us an idea of what you think the magnitude on revenues and costs would be based on current FX rates versus the 22 average.

Thank you. Thank you, Andrew. I'll take the first one, Sarah, the second one. So on the capital guidance, I think if you compare our language that we used last year on this time and then this time, it's more confident because last year we basically gave you guidance of around $5 billion and now basically we're giving you above $5 billion. And honestly, why don't we give precise numbers? Because it's not a precise business that we're in. So we have to deal with market circumstances, with developments, with sentiments, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. We think it is better to give you a guidance that we're confident in on delivering and then update you while the year goes by. Sarah?

In terms of the FX, all I would give you as a reference point is that the FX was an impact for, for example, this quarter of approximately $200 million in both directions, so both on the expense and on the revenue. And so that gives you an idea of what it could look like, but of course it will depend on the FX goals.

Thank you.

The next question is from Jeremy Siki from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Morning. Two related questions, please, both on net new money flows. Firstly, your Outlook comment has quite a cautious comment about client sentiment may affect flows. I know that's unchanged language from the previous quarter. I just wondered if there's anything specific in that that you're seeing or if that's just general caution. That's my first question. And then the second one, slightly related. I know it's sensitive for you to talk about flows from or relating to your competitors. But I just wondered why you wouldn't be the natural home for outflows coming out of a competitor. You're saying that's not the primary source for your inflows, which is a bit surprising. You know, why wouldn't you be the natural home for some of those flows to relocate to?

Thank you, Jeremy. So, on the first one, it is general caution. So, since you asked the question so specifically, it is general caution. And it has to do, Jeremy, with the fact that we are at the start of the year. We see some positive signals around China opening up, could be a support of economic growth and constructive market environment. We see the LCM, the leveraged capital markets, coming back to life a bit, which is normally a leading indicator for capital markets to open up as well. So those are positive signals. But on the other end, you know, we're waiting for inflation numbers and with that to get a sense for how strict central banks will have to move in order to curb that inflation to break it into a non-structured inflation to a lower level and what the cost of that could be to the economy. So that's why we are generally cautious because these are the things that play. I do expect in the next couple of weeks even that to have a bit more clarity, certainly about inflation, central bank movements, China further opening up, corporate results coming through as well. So I do think that the next couple of weeks could give us some hints as to how firm market recovery could be. But for the moment, it is general caution there. On the second question, you know, there is many places where clients can go. In general, given the fact that we are the largest wealth manager in the world, there's not necessarily new clients for us, right? So we already deal with clients that others have as well. So although we are certainly the natural place for these clients to go to, they are generally already a client of ours. That is one aspect. The other aspect is that there is a bit of a difference in risk appetite in some situations as well. So those are the two. Thank you.

Thanks very much. Thank you.

The next question is from Anke Reingen from Royal Bank of Canada. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. I just wanted to ask on costs again. I mean, given we can't really adjust for FX rates, I mean, I understand you don't want to give any more guidance, but can you give us maybe like the FX mix on costs? If we think about the cost income ratio, should FX effects basically be neutral for the cost income ratio? And then in terms of the investment banking, you said 2022 is a good revenue year, but the cost income ratio is 78%. Is that sort of like where you think the cost income ratio should be, or do you think it should be trending lower in the investment bank? Thank you very much.

I'll start with the second question, and Sarah will take the first one, Anke. On the second one, basically, the way we look at our investment bank, as you know, is an investment bank that has to return its cost of capital. There was a combination here of the use of capital, and it is a capital-light investment bank, as you know, and with that, therefore, also the consequences for the cost-income ratio. Since we are capital light on the investment bank, we are best practice in return on risk-weighted assets. The cost-income ratio may not be as competitively seen because we invest heavily in technology as well. Because that's the way we play in the investment bank. And therefore, the return in the investment bank, and we had the last three years, a very good return all three years, good returns and also returning more than cost of capital, that is more for us the indicator that we manage the investment banking on than per se the cost income ratio. Because in the markets that we play in, we need to continue to invest in technology and artificial intelligence because that's the game we play in the investment bank. So that, I hope, explains you as to how we look at the investment bank.

And in terms of the cost-income ratio, you mentioned it, and it's a great way to think about it. It is really very neutral in terms of how it's affected by effects. So the best way to think about it is that all of our guidance is stunning, regardless of the effects, because on a cost-income ratio, both the numerator and the denominator are affected in opposite directions.

Okay. Thank you very much. The next question is from Adam Terlak from Ediobanca. Please go ahead.

Well, thank you for the questions. I've got another one on cost and then one on capital. On expenses, I'm actually a little bit surprised on the cost guide, 2% to 3%, given that previously you've spoken X variable compensation, but now you seem to bake that into the guide. So can you give us a bit of color about kind of base case for revenues opposite that? particularly in GWM, which is clearly FA comp is very much linked to the fee line there. So just to feel for your base cases on planning and why are switching guidance from kind of an underlying inflation figure to which excluded variable comp to one that's now all in. And then secondly, it's a bit of a technical question around Basel IV. Appreciate the slide in the appendix. Can you just give us a bit of a colour about how the short-term inflation to your risk weights is front-loading some of that Basel IV impact, the relation between kind of the 2022, the 2023 inflation, and what that's done to your 2025 Basel IV impact? And can you split that out a little bit between credit risk and operational risk and how we should be thinking about the short-term versus the longer-term there and the interaction between the two? Thank you.

In terms of the cost, we wanted to give you a guidance that is reflective of how we manage the place, which is the total cost. And of course, I think XFX and X litigation is helpful in terms of the exclusions. The reason for the wrench is actually to consider different revenue outcomes as well as the different paces of investments that could be related to that. So that's really on the first one. On the second one, on what you're seeing is exactly how you framed it in your question, which is that we are seeing some timing difference. So the total trip between the end of 2021 and the adoption of Basel is about that $30 billion that we talked about exactly a year ago. But we are able to offset the increases that happen along the way with reductions in the final adoption because it is addressing the same risks that have already been covered by some of the model updates that we put in place. So it's exactly as I think you expected in the framing of your question. In terms of where it's coming from, there is also one element that is interesting, which is that as you are moving from 2024 to 2025, because of the operational risk and how it's calculated, there is some of the exposure that just drops from the record, and so there is a little bit of help there.

Can I just follow up on operational risk? I know Switzerland hasn't quite defined ILM, whereas Europe has gone to one. Do you know where the debate on that is? Because I assume you've got operational losses as part of the calculation on your Basel IV impact.

Yes, so operational losses is included, and the debate is still open on that in Switzerland.

Okay, thank you.

The next question is from Amit Goyal from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you. I have one kind of follow-on question and one different question. The follow-on question, I guess, comes back to net new fee generating asset growth. I guess there have been a few moving parts in 2022, you know, driving that strong performance. But I'm just kind of curious if in 2023, given the China reopening, you would kind of put it as a base case that net new fee generating asset growth should be stronger this year than last. And the second question, just relating to the medium-term investment plans, and in particular on the digital side in the U.S., just Just curious, you're thinking in terms of investment there, you know, with the world front transaction not happening, is that an area where we should expect some cost growth or, you know, is that segment of the market not something that you're looking to continue or looking to play into? Thank you.

Thank you, Ahmed. So on the first question, You know that the way we look at net new fee generating assets when we came out with our strategy over the last two years in pieces, but specifically also came around with guidance around net new fee generating asset growth is that we expect this to grow around to 5% and some years maybe a bit below and some years a little bit higher, but it's the 5% that you can count on and that's also the way we see things developing more or less. And so that's on that new fee generating assets. Now back to the U.S., just to kind of make that case once again, I think it's important that we are large in the U.S., we are a very well recognized brand in the U.S. As I explained in my opening, we're very focused on our wealth clients and on our family office clients there as well. And those need financial advisors that need to be supported by digital tools so we have launched the the initial versions of a improved workstation that will be that will be further improved over time and then we are working on further digitization some of the processes to support their business and increase their productivity as well As you know, banking in itself is important to us as well in order to develop the product slate for them to be more successful also on the banking side. And since we started this, and this is before the update even, we have increased our banking business around deposits by $48 billion and loans by $41 billion. So you see the banking business really coming through and therefore we will need to continue to invest in that. Also in the process of supporting that flow into our bank in the U.S., it's important as well. Now, if you read all these digital components that we have to deliver for our wealth management clients, then automatically we are building a base that we can also then develop specific propositions for our workplace wealth clients that we have $2 million of. So that's the way you should look at it. Now, honestly, I do think that... Most of the people who know me think there is never an end to technology expenditures, and that will also not ever end in the U.S. So, for us, this is more program of continuation of investment and improvement and moving to an agile way of working there as well, like we have done in many other parts of UBS. And then you will have a continuation of technology investments in order to improve each and every part of our franchise there to make it more efficient and make our financial advisors more productive.

Okay, thank you.

The next question is from Magdalena Stoklosa for Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. I've got two questions, both on wealth. The first one is literally a follow-up on your explanation about the kind of U.S. business over the last couple of years because, of course, we've talked over quarters about that kind of banking penetration, about business banking penetration, about the loan penetration as the way to grow that product franchise in the U.S. But, Ralph, can I ask, when it comes to kind of deliverables going forward that you will be holding that kind of U.S. wealth business to, what would be your key one? Is it still about the deposit, the loan growth, the balances of which you've just mentioned, or is it kind of more nuanced than that? So that's the first question. And the second question is about the Middle East as an opportunity in wealth. I think you very briefly mentioned it. in the slides talking about EMEA flows or net flows. But can I just ask, because of course we don't really focus on the region as much as we probably should, how do you see it as the wealth franchise? What's the plan going forward? And actually, could you give us a sense just how much of those EMEA inflows were actually generated in Lina? Thank you.

So thank you, Magda. So on the first one, clearly we go into much more details as to getting a feel for how the U.S. business is developing. But what is important here is that we are a top five player there. We have a very specific brand recognition there. and we have to build on the strength of our brand there, which basically means that the core of our business is done through our financial advisors, if not almost all. And that is the crucial aspect of it. And what we want to do is support them to be much more productive. So in terms of the levers that we pull is financial advisor productivity, not only by supporting them with much better processes, but also with the right and more sophisticated products than everybody else can. Also global products, which is basically where the UBS as a global wealth manager comes in as a differentiating tool there as well. But on top of that, we are specifically recruiting those financial advisors that are more productive and that have higher net worth and ultra high net worth clients and are in those geographies where we expect much faster growth general geographies where there is quite some entrepreneurial wealth creation because the fastest growth in the U.S., in the U.S. wealth pool comes from entrepreneurial wealth. So it is much more than just a couple of top lines. It is very specific as to where do we recruit our FAs, where do we expect the wealth creation to be, who have a proven track record through which we can work, how can we support them with sophisticated products, Where does banking play a role there in the stickiness of those relationships so that they can continue to build a franchise? So there's a couple of indicators that we are looking at as to how we actually grow this business sustainably and not only tactically. That is the important element of our UBS, of our U.S. business. Now, when it comes to the Middle East, it's not new to UBS that we bank the Middle East, We are growing our teams there. Over the last two years, we did open our office in Qatar, in Doha. We have recruited people there beyond the wealth business. We also do services activities there as well. So we're committed to that. And you see on the back of recruiting teams in the Middle East, you see more clients coming through and also the flows coming from those clients. And in the fourth quarter, yeah, there were also flows coming through there. These are the ultra high net worth individuals in the Middle East, so they come with high tickets.

Great. Thank you very much.

The next question is from Stefan Stalman from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I would like to start with a question on NII, please, on your guidance. You're guiding quite specifically about what should happen between Q4 22 and Q1 23, but you're a bit less specific for the whole year. Do you see any reasonable scenario where on an FX neutral basis, your NII in any of the following quarters, Q2 to Q4 23, could be lower than it is expected to be in Q1 2023. And the second question, I guess, goes back somewhat to what Magdalena just asked in GWM and the US business. Your chairman toyed with the idea in a recent interview about publishing separate KPIs for the US wealth management business. And I was wondering whether you would consider doing that. And given that you're currently not breaking out the U.S. business at all, whether that would require a change in the divisional setup. Thank you very much.

Thank you, Stefan. I will answer the last one, and then Sarah will answer the first one. So on the last one, it's under consideration.

So in terms of what you should expect, first of all, if you look at the forward, that is what is underlying our guidance. So if you take different forwards, you could certainly see different scenarios going there. And we give you each quarter more information very precisely about the following quarter, but we want it also to cement that there is a very good story for the fall year, which is why we gave you the annualized guidance.

Right. Thank you.

The next question is from Andrew Lim from . Please go ahead.

Hi. Thanks for my questions. I'd like to drill down a bit more into off-management Americas and discuss that as others have done. So, I mean, relative to other regions, as we've seen in slide 31, that decline of 20% in PBT seems quite disappointing compared to other regions. I was wondering if you could give a bit more color on whether they're suffering a bit more on the deposit beta or migration side there. and whether that represents a change going forward in the profit trajectory. And then perhaps, you know, maybe you could talk a bit more specifically about that structural difference in the Americas versus peers in the U.S. You know, they didn't suffer such a big decline in PVT in the fourth quarter. It was rather flatter up. And then if you look at the cost of income ratio, Yours of 86% is still a good 60 percentage points higher than peers. So what are the differences here in UBS Americas versus U.S. peers? And what can you do here to really improve that?

Thank you. So if you compare us with the peers in the Americas, the peers that we compete with have a local banking business. which is very stable in terms of what, if it comes to the production of their business, of new clients, as well as the stickiness of the money and with that, where they may need to price in order to manage the shift in the mix of the business. We're very much a wealth manager. That's what we do. and they are a combination of a wealth manager and some have a larger exposure to the local business, which generally comes with a bigger scale in that local business, and with that, therefore, also a lower cost income ratio. But Sarah, anything to add?

No, we just obviously, this is also reflecting the level of investments that we are making in the region, and so as you see us addressing both the revenue as well as the expense, both in the investment side, wallet share, as well as the banking wallet share. And on the cost side, both strategic and tactical, we certainly plan to improve, but it will take some time for the mix to start becoming more in line with what you are seeing in some of the peers that you're comparing to.

Okay. Thank you. Thank you.

The next question is from Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. Just one major question left from my side. We had 95% payout in 2022. I was wondering whether we should think about just below full payout as well for this year, and this is the main determining factor on how large the buyback can be. Thank you very much.

Thank you, Benjamin. Thank you for trying again. As you know, we have a very capital generative model. Certainly in an uncertain environment for us, the first priority is to have a strong balance sheet. The second priority is that where we see growth, that we can actually support that growth using capital as well. The third priority is that we have a dividend that we want to increase progressively. in order to have a good mix between dividends and also a sheer buyback. But since we feel we are undervalued, we find the buyback even more important. And therefore, we came out with this guidance that we have given. And again, I can't give you more than what we have given, which is the over $5 billion that we're confident with. And clearly, as the year progresses, and there is further progress on it and we can update you on it as to where we are, we think where this is going, we will certainly do so.

Thank you. Fair enough.

Thank you. The next question is from Nicholas Payen from Kepler Chevrolet. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have two on wealth management. The first one more on APAC and we can see that your number of advisors is decreasing despite China reopening and probably a higher level of activity expected. So I wanted to know how do you intend to capture this higher level of activity with potentially less advisors? And the second one is on the US and like to know if it's possible to get a bit of color regarding, you know, the breakdown of your net inflows between an increase of shelf wallet from existing clients versus a new client coming in at UBS, US Wealth Management. Thank you.

Thank you, Nicolas. So on the first one, we're not really kind of after a specific advisor count, so to say. For us, it is important that the advisors that we have, they have the right clients, they have the right client relationships, they can increase the share of wallet, the productivity of each advisor is important to us as well, and that is what we truly manage on. And we feel that with the current level of advisors, and we continue to optimize that and clearly manage for performance and pay for performance, that we can certainly cope with some of the upside there, and clearly we will continue to hire the right advisors as we have been doing up to now, and we will continue to do so also going forward.

And on your question for the U.S., you can think of the inflows for this quarter as being about half-half related to net recruiting versus same store. And same store usually is exactly with the same clients. So that gives you a sense.

Thank you.

The next question is from Pierce Brown from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Yeah, I've got one on global wealth and one on litigation. So global wealth, actually just to follow on from the previous question, but in terms of the U.S. advisor numbers, I think you talked last quarter about having a strong hiring pipeline, but actually the advisor numbers look like they've dipped in the fourth quarter. So if you could just talk to what the hiring plan looks like for this year in the U.S. on the advisor front. And the second question on litigation, the French tax case, it looks like the wording in the 4Q report is pretty much identical to the 3Q report. Is there any update on timing at all on that particular issue? Thanks.

Yeah, and the second one, so what you have read is what you have read, and that is what we disclose. And I can't give you more color there, otherwise it would have been in that disclosure anyway. So you read it well, Piers, on the first one. Also there, we have a – we will continue to recruit in the U.S. It's just that in the last year when the marks were so high, we basically held back on recruitment in the first quarter and also the second quarter a bit because with every recruitment, you basically – I mean, you have to pay for the business they bring. So at that moment, we held back a bit. And then we accelerated the recruitment. And we will continue the recruitment of FAs in the U.S. As I said, you know, it's very important for us to get the FAs that come in at the level of productivity that is basically the market bench for us, right? So we are market leader in terms of FA productivity. We want to keep it at that level as well, and therefore we have to continue to kind of train our FAs, support them as well on one side, but on the other side also recruit new FAs that come in with a higher productivity level, that come in with the higher wealth clients, and that are in areas where we expect the wealth growth to be the fastest. So with that, therefore, also deliver that productivity. So no specific plans other than continuing to further improve the FA productivity, as we have been doing over the last couple of years. And actually, over the last couple of years, you've seen our FA count going down while productivity continues, overall productivity continues to be at least the same level. And that's where you saw that shift towards higher net worth individual clients, higher productive FAs in geographies where we expect wealth to grow as well. And that is basically a campaign that we'll continue to run. Thank you.

That's great. Thank you very much.

Okay. Okay, in absence of further questions, let me thank you for being with us this morning. As Sarah and I noted, we delivered good results this year and continue to show our strategy performance well across the cycle. It was by no means an easy year, but it was a year of many achievements and strong execution across the regions. And I think that our pledge to stay very close to our clients make sure that we can advise them through challenging times as well, that that creates the momentum that you have seen also in the fourth quarter and throughout the whole year. Now, while macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, our strategy and what differentiates us as UBS is clear. We're the only truly global wealth manager. We have outstanding client franchises. We have geographic diversification, which is very helpful. We underpin all of that by discipline risk management, also discipline cost management. That's what you have seen over the last couple of years as well with our savings program and executing on the savings program and actually increasing the savings program now as well. Our capital position is strong. Our balance sheet is healthy. And that puts us at a great position to serve our clients, deliver strong capital returns to our shareholders in the next year as well. Thank you very much and see you next quarter.

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast and Q&A session for analysts and investors is over. You may disconnect your lines. We will now take a short break and continue with media Q&A session at 9.45 UK, 10.45 CET.