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SpareBank 1 Ostlandet
11/1/2024
Welcome everyone who is here in the audience. We have a full audience here at NTNU at Gjøvik, and we hope that there are many who follow us on stream. Today we have two really good messages to give. The first is that we have carried out the fusion method, and we have delivered great results for the third quarter. I am very happy to be here, and we have celebrated the whole afternoon about trends, so this will be really good. And if there are any questions along the way, I would just like to say that there is a small address on the first page, investor at sb1ostlandet.no, so send in and we will answer at the end of the presentation. I'm going to start today with some spoilers. I was born in the 70s, so I call it spoilers. Some spoilers, and then we're going to show a bit of a short film, and then I'm going to go through a little more details around the business, before I leave the floor to our financial director, Gregel Bolstad, who is going to go through more details. So let's get started. This is a day that we have been looking forward to for a long time, and it is clear to deliver the first quarter ever with a net result of over 1 billion. We had 1.8 billion in revenue after tax, and that is the highest we have had in our group. And yes, it is also characterized by a one-time effect from the Fremtiden and EIKA version at 287 million kroner. But even without it, we have a one-time return this quarter of 14.8%. This is very good for us, and it is due to good underlying banking operations. If we look at the growth in the market we are in, we deliver a little over the market growth, both in the countryside and especially in Oslo-Akersjøhus, the capital region. We deliver very well there, and we are satisfied with the activity level, and this is reflected very well in the provision revenue. They are up 9.3% from the same quarter last year, and it is even over most areas, but especially I would like to draw up single-use funds. There we see now that there is higher activity in the used housing market, and there is not at all an improvement in the new housing market, but better than it was a year ago. So it delivers well, not only in Oslo, but also in Akershus and inland. The cost is slightly higher than we like. We will continue to work with efficiency measures. We will see how we can digitize more simplifications and work even smarter, so that we free up time for advisors to work with customers. We usually go through details on that and take up afterwards. But, all time high. Result, aftershave, and we have a total of 4.6% outlay growth. Good and solid portfolio. And it is all time low on cost percentage. 30% cost income, which we are very pleased with. So it is a solid and good bank, which I am very proud to stand here and present for. The financial goals. We made adjustments in August this year. The salary goals this year are very good. In 2024, we have reached 17.3% per capita, the first in a month. If we take away the one-time effect I mentioned on the future one-time version of 287 million, then 15.3 is also solid. But it is not this year. This is perhaps so challenging now. It will be more important also in the future. We must continue to work to create a high profitability. And we are solid. Our solidity is well above the capital demand, including Buffer, which is 16.1, with 16.9, which is also an improvement from last quarter. So all in all, good luck for 2024. And we must continue to work to create a good economy in the coming years. So one of the messages of joy today. Earlier today we received a message that a legal version of the Sparbank method has come into force. So today I am proud that we can wish my welcome to over 80 new employees in our group. And this has been a long process, a journey of freedom, where we have been in love with Toten Sparman for a long time. My predecessor and Rolf Delingsrud signed an intention agreement in January, which was then taken into account on February 22 by the General Assembly's representative office. After that, we have worked on making good integration plans for the future. It is to be known. You can be a little before you understand, but it is only now that it really starts. We received approvals before the summer from the competition committee, and from the financial committee now after the summer, so now it is implementation. Of course, until now, a lot of preparation, but it is now that the job really starts. In the next quarter, we will work on finding a data for technical fusion, because we have different system parks today. We will be together with our partners to find a smart approach and a data for technical fusion. But now I actually want to show you a little movie, so here we go. Yes, this is... I get a little upset when I watch this film. Especially that in the end we vote together for the local community, and that we burn for the local community. These are values that both Toten Sparbank and Sparbank Østlander share. And this, I would say, is a fusion between two well-run banks. Totens Svarbank is known for being a solid, safe and well-managed bank. In the first nine months of the year, they have an income tax of 11.4%, which is good for a standard bank that also has a really good underlying customer service in Totens. And there is a bank that is known for close customer relations and being there for customers. They are primarily here in the Toten region, i.e. Røyfoss, Lena, Jøvik, and then we are in Hamar and Råholt. We will now continue to work with the integration of the employees into the company, and we will see how we get to work even more closely together at the office, and now Toten's Sparbank customer will benefit from the broad product spectrum that we have in Sparbank 1. The alliance, both in insurance, accounting, business partners, which are real estate services, finance, and so on. So it will be very good, and we look forward to it. As I said, today there are several from Sparmanken Østlandet who are around at Toten's Sparman office to celebrate the celebration today. And of course, a fusion costs a bit. We have had the cost of integration so far at 32 million kroner this year, and expect around 60 in the next quarter we are in now. And there are capital synergies that some will have power already from the new year, but in total at about 300 million kroner through this fusion. I would also like to mention the Sparebank Foundation. Toten Sparebank has now established a foundation that owns 8.61% of the collective. So I know that some of Toten's people have thought, how can this be done with gifts and sponsorships and activities in the local community, but with a foundation with really strong eyes in a corporation that does well, and exchange opportunities that the foundation can share with the public in the form of at least as much as it has done as a bank. So I think this will be very good for the local community where we are, whether we are around in Østland or in Tynset, down in Drammen, or whether we are on the Jøvik side. And I would like to mention one more thing. We have taken a different structural approach recently. We have opened an office in Drammen. We have been established 25 years ago. We have had customers in that region all the time. But we see that with the customer growth we have in this area, it is wise to have a physical offer. Right now, the beautiful gang sitting in the middle of the square has indicated that it looks good there. But from this spring we are going to the flagship store, the best location in Drammen, Bragernes Torg 1. It will be incredibly good. Since the beginning of October it has gone even better than we thought, so we are already going to ramp up with more employees. This is an area where we see strong growth, and we have about 2% market share, which is quite small, so there is a lot of potential here. Drammen is a big city. I think everyone here in the room knows that it is about half of Oslo. But it is an area that we see as a large industry, and there is good growth in the business market, and it is a good association area. Cooperation with LO is something that is important to us. LO has been a big owner of the bank for a long time. We have over 100 years of cooperation history with LO. This country and this trade union is about 1 million members in Norway, huge, and we are also now chosen as one of the partner banks in the future. One of three banks in the Sparbank 1-alliance that has the honor and trust to serve customers who are LO-members. And this is a very important offer for our customers. We see that in terms of loans, it is almost 37% of our customers who are LO-members. And it grows even more on the new customers that come in. The entire 39% of new loan volumes are LO-customers. And an important element here is to attract young people. We have a very good offer for housing loans for young people. And we see that 43% of our new volume of housing loans for customers at the age of 18-33 are LO members. And even though we primarily have Østlandet as a business area, we also have growth from customers outside of it, who are largely LO members, a whole 45%. And as I said, LO is important. They also create security for the employees in the companies they are a member of. And we really appreciate the cooperation we have with them. And thinking about the focus on the society around us is very important. It is a common goal setting that Toten's Sparebank and we have had. We are going to contribute where we are in the local community. And we in Sparebanken Østlandet have, since 2017, distributed more than 2.7 billion kroner to customers, sponsors, teams, associations and so on. And in the middle you can see Sparebankstiftelsen Hedemark, our largest owner, has contributed with over 660 million kroner to public services, including studies and research and development, so a very important contribution to the local community. Customer exchange, we are one of the few banks in our market area that gives back to customers. So if it goes well for the bank, the owners get the exchange and the customers also get the exchange. And in the course of these years we have given out over 1.8 billion kroner in customer exchange. And then one of my first tasks when I started this job was to distribute 381 million kroner in April this year in customer exchange, based on the 2023 government. And in addition, we give sponsorships and gifts. We are concerned with the inclusion of especially young people and children, because we see that it is very important to create good local communities, we need young people to have a good life. And being involved in either sports or leisure activities is very important, but it is not everyone who is born with a ski on their legs, they play hockey, handball or football. So it is also fun to be able to give support to initiatives that are aimed, among other things, towards functional homes. So we have a special program called All Hands this autumn, where we focus on sharing resources to teams, associations and initiatives that especially support the inclusion of people, especially children and young people. It's a lot of fun. There are 10 million kroner we are sharing this autumn. So we want to give to the society, because that's where we see SpareBank as the main goal, to contribute to the local society. Super important. And we have been working to strengthen Direkte Banken. I want to mention that in particular, because we have quite satisfied customers. We have high customer satisfaction, and we have been at the customer center in Kåringen in the summer, Kåre på Pallen. And that is incredibly good, because this is an area we have been working with to strengthen over the past year. One year ago, in September, a customer had been waiting for eight and a half minutes on the phone before he got through. That's too long. We have done measures to strengthen the crew. We have organized a little about it. We work in even better ways and effective work processes. And now the response is down to 1 minute and 14 seconds in September. And October is on the same level. And that's very good. So now the service rate has gone up from September last year to 77%. That means that 23 out of 100 customers didn't dare to wait on the phone before they did, while now there are less than 6 out of 100 who don't dare to wait 1 minute and 14 seconds on average. So this nice group had over 22,000 conversations in September and is also a contribution to the fact that people at the office network work effectively with advice and booked meetings. So I am very happy that we have achieved this. We also have a very large business center, which is also grateful for donations and works for an effective delivery of financial services to businesses. But now I would very much like to draw up Direkte Bank, which has received a solid improvement. And we are working to strengthen the bank in general and in the future. It is to continue to modernize the bank, to simplify our business further, so that we spare time for customers to have some advice and so on. And that we have redesigned customer journeys so that support is relevant and in the future in our customer offer. At the same time we are working with effective collaboration in the annouance. These are important core areas. And I am very happy to have got a team that is good at digitization. It has been her specialization. Stine Haugset has been the leader for that, and Kømmin Åsøs as the leader for technology development, and has a lot of competence around digitization and simplification. I am also very happy that from today I have gotten Johan Røstøen from Toten Sparebank into my board of directors, and he will take with him the competence around effective operation, from Toten, which we will probably learn a lot from, and at least be able to ensure a good integration on the total bank, so we are looking forward to getting our hands on the team. And finally, we have a need to strengthen our market power, and that is to lift the market and brand into communication. We do this from the new year. There will be a new leader called Bård Sjøretorp, who also has long experience in these areas, in large companies, and as a consultant. So together with the really good team we have in the bank from before, I think these will be a good asset to build the future of our financial house. Because it is still tough times for our customers. And in this map of our country, you can see that the inland and eastern region is still somewhat below normal levels, as it has been in many quarters. Because we don't have so much offshore oil and fisheries right here around us. Of course, around the country we see a completely different situation for the companies that run along the coast. But there are some signs of improvement. Among other things, we see that the credit growth is on the way up. There is some light in the tunnel. Especially in the personal market, we see that there is increased activity. At the same time, there are still more people who want to sell before they buy, because the interest rates are high. So we will see when the interest rates start to go down in 2025, but we hope that it will normalize, so that a lot more projects, especially in building and property, will take place. We have a good activity in our markets, but could be even better in the future. But in the personal market, we see that the activity level is very high. It has been a little unusual high, especially in August and the end of September. But we see, even if we grow in volume, the margin is pressed, there is strong competition. And that's good for the customer. We have to sharpen, we deliver really well. We are in a region where there is a lot of competition and many banks about customers. And we see, among other things, at LO-Kunder, that they have more products and more services they buy. And those who have the most services, they are also the most satisfied and loyal. So we want to make broad sales, and we have succeeded well with this quarter, both in fund savings, which is up over 40% from the same time last year, and insurance, which has gone up. So it is a good activity, and we have wanted to welcome 8% more customers. We are over 420,000 customers in our bank, so there will be good growth on that too. The business market is a little calmer quarter. We are still growing OK, but at the same time there have been areas that have calmed down a little, and we see that they are sitting a little on the edge and waiting to start larger projects. At the same time, it is an area where we see growth now, and it is within sustainable investments, and especially within renewable energy, and that is very good. Because we want to be part of the green shift, and our green portfolio is now below 25% measured in volume. So here it will be very exciting in the future. We say that there will be stronger signals in the West in the future. And we see that we get more and more requests, especially from larger customers who have bonds that are falling, where they are looking at refinancing needs. But we have long glasses on. It is certain that this will come in 2024, but we have good prospects in the future. And we hope that the light we see in the tunnel will become even greater in the future. So I will now hand over the floor to our financial director, Gregel Bolstad, who will go through a little more detail, and then I will sit and enjoy a cup of coffee and celebrate the celebration for myself. Here you go.
Thank you, Lara-Lise. Good morning everyone, also you out there on the internet. It is a great pleasure to be able to present strong numbers. I'll start with an overview picture, and then I'll go into details later. But just to bring up the big picture, Klara Lise mentioned a quarter with a result after tax of over 1 billion. This is a significant increase compared to the previous quarter, also when we consider this gain by the fusion in the supply chains. And the answer, if you ignore this effect, is a 90% increase in the result after tax in the same quarter as last year. This is quite remarkable, and it shows how the bank delivers on a very large scale. Now, Klara Lise has been in PM and BM, foreign growth and so on. We see that we have a small growth in our interest rate net, with the addition of provisions from our credit companies. It is not as strong as it was in the previous quarter, but it is still a growth. Contrary to that, the foreign exchange growth drives the interest rates. We see that the interest rates on PM contribute positively, but we see that there is a drag on the foreign side on PM and BM. We have had a stable Nibor for a long time. The price picture in the market becomes very clear. The competition situation becomes very clear and easy for the customers to navigate in. All in all, there is an increase, but we notice the competition. We deliver the best third quarter when it comes to provision revenue. The trading model for our bank and other savings banks, Totens in the same way, is to cover the customer's need for financial services and products. The cross-border model, getting customers in the chair and selling several products is important, and we really see it this quarter. We have the best third quarter we can see in terms of payment revenues, both credit card and other, and it is a good development compared to the corresponding quarter last year. This is quite season-based. It is also a good development in relation to other quarters. Insurance provisions, both injury and life, show a good underlying growth. We put our great pride in that, especially in injury insurance, we are the best in the Alliance, as we like to say, given the size. Injury insurance is important to us. And we also mean that it is important for the customers, so this is a good match. Clara Lise mentioned that we have a very good development on this with savings. Savings are important for customers. We are a savings bank, so of course it should never go against it, but we see both a need in society and a need for customers for more savings. And we see the investment in Svarbank again. It gives good results, and it also gives very good results in Egen Bank. There are good volume increases there. Then we have also had within the creditors, Clara-Lise was in on it, we have had good growth in the provision revenues. This applies both to the inland and Oslo Akershus. It is not as strong as the second quarter, but those who know the food market in Norway know that on the way into the summer it is often hot, but for the third quarter it is very, very strong. One of the weak points of the provisions income is related to the accounting services. The third quarter is often a weaker quarter in terms of season, and we see that this time as well. We will come back to that later. Other provisions and other income also have a good development. Datsselskapene er verdt å ha med. Sparbank 1 Finans Østlandet, de leverer en vekst i inntekter, de har en god stabilitet i tappsituasjon, og det er verdt å merke seg at selskapet har en utlandsvekst de siste 12 måneder på 9%. As mentioned, the results are very good for the third quarter, and reflect a high level of activity. Again, the business partners have had a more demanding quarter. But all in all, when compared to the third quarter from last year, this is a very good quarter from the Danish companies. We have many joint-owned companies in the Sparbank 1-system, and the big driver is the Sparbank 1-group. Clara Lise mentioned 287 million in a profit at the insurance fund Fremtiden and EICA. We take that now, but also when we look away from that, there are surprisingly good contributions from the group. Very good from the future. Kredi Nord is still moving in the opposite direction, but now there are immaterial values and deductions on it, which means that you have a good bottom line, and the activity and profitability in the company is gradually coming up. So, Sparbank N-gruppe delivers well, also underlying, but is not quite back to the levels we saw running in the typical period 2019-2021, where it was very stable. Sparbanken Forvaltning, our savings area, they deliver well. There are good services, it is well established, well managed. Our credit companies, they deliver as they should. And when it comes to the last thing I want to point out is this with BM Bank. BM Bank is a jewel that a part of the banks in Sparbanken owns together. It is difficult to match BenBank. They probably have Norway's lowest cost percentage and are extremely well driven and contribute well to the company's results. I was talking about the contributions from the joint controlled businesses. If we look at the exchange side, there is not much in this quarter. Normally it is not in the third quarter. But when it comes to other financial positions, there are positive contributions on a broad front. Here it is important to note that NOA is mark-to-market, a bit technical, but it is value adjustments that change over time. But you should also bear in mind that on the currency side, on the interest side, customer activity is about 22 million in this quarter. And that is quite stable over time, it is not something that varies. What is a little more volatile is your own liquidity portfolio. It contributes to 31 million this quarter. It usually contributes positively, but you can have value adjustment. Now we have a good quarter on that. And the answer, actually also 31 million, we have on value adjustments, on fixed interest outlay, inlay with relevant insurance instruments. And the last thing we will have is equity investments. It contributes positively, with 35 million this quarter. In that, the value development is also on the bank's own account in totals. So in all, 119 million there, that is a solid contribution, but there is not everything that is just coincidences, there are also recurring effects over time, it is important to keep in mind. If you look at the picture to the right, you will see that there was a spike in the second quarter. That is the not so pleasant drop from the financial statements, 30 million, in the AML area. When we now look at the third quarter, we are down on the previous quarters and a little further. At the same time, as Klara Lise started with, the cost level is something we work with. The cost growth in the last 12 months has been strong. At the same time, it is not something we do not see in the industry as a whole, but it has a high focus from the management. And the operating costs, when you look at where it comes from, which companies in the group, then it is Morbank. A lot of it is staff costs, it is crew. We are 43 years up in the last 12 months in Morbanken. So Clara Lise tells about new investments in Drammen. She also tells about a customer center that really has people on the move. And in the same way, we can mention other places where the customer side is strengthened. At the same time, there is also strength on the compliance side. So please say that here you have both reinforced attack lines, but also defense lines. That explains a lot of the cost increases in Morbank. The answer is what you see in the business partner. 40 competent employees came on board in the business partner through purchase numbers at the beginning of the year. That also explains a lot of the cost increase there. To not be too short-sighted, if you look at the figure to the right, you can see the long-term development in the cost percentage. Of course, there are seasonal effects, there are also one-time effects, but if you see the long trend, I hope you see the same as me, that it is a clear trend, that it is reduced. Then we will talk about something that may not be as pleasant. It is the loss costs. They come in at a high level this quarter. And now we have had several quarters where it has been low and quite stable. Then it is to say that what is the big difference from the previous quarters, it is linked to one customer. It is a customer that we have worked with for a long time, who has existing problems, and there has been another loss assessment on that one customer, which in a very large way explains the difference at the level we have seen from the previous quarters. So model-wise, the drop rates are at the level we typically would expect in a quarter. But when it comes to confirmed drops, they are at the lowest level we have seen in six quarters. And then it may be a bit early to say that this is a trend, and that we should think that we are through, in a way, in the worst times. But regardless, we take it with us, it is at a lower level. And with the drop rate increased on single customers in the business market, we see that the so-called Trin 3 drop rates are strengthened. At the same time, we see that Trin 3, for those of you who do not speak banking, is the sum of the lost commitments. That volume is marginally down, or let's say stable. This also means that the rate of return is increased as a result of the returns made in the quarter. And the credit quality, we have to say that the big picture is that it is stable. And then we have some highlights that are actually quite promising. We see top left here. Bollånskunder som ber om avdragsfrihet, det volymet er på vei ned, og det samme har andre banker rapportert. Så som et frempek for fremtidige betalingsproblemer, så synes vi det er et positivt tegn. Vi ser også at nivået på de som er forsinket i betalingen, det er lavere på samme kvartal i fjor, og det er relativt stabilt med det vi har sett fra foregående kvartal. On the BM side, we see that the pull on frame credits is quite stable, and we also see that the reward rate on the business sector is developing very steadily. This is the last slide, and it is not a bank presentation without looking at the capitalization. A little technical for some, I know that, but I also know that there are some out there on the net, maybe especially, who are very concerned about this. This is one of the things that we are as excited about every quarter. It shows a small increase, i.e. an increase in the strength of the solidity marginally. The period's result has contributed well. In addition, it is as we have previously said that the effect of the gain on the fusion in the future in EIKA, it would come in around neutral. We see that it has a small negative effect, but it is quite limited. We see that the risk values, both PM and BM, are stable. Again, an indication of stable credit risk development. What draws a little capital and increases the calculation basis is the so-called CVA deposit that we get consolidated from Sparbank N Boligkredit. That is part of our funding, and to secure the currency and the corresponding capital requirement affects the bank. So that is the one that is worth taking with us at that time, because then we might have expected some further strengthening of the capital coverage. Nevertheless, the capital coverage, or pure core capital coverage at 16.9, has exceeded the bank's internal target of 16.1. And that is even more important to the right than the minimum requirements of the authorities. And then we also have to include that in the capital coverage calculation, then it is basically a 50% exchange rate, so we have not added the capital in the running. It is kept to the side. And that is in favor of the exchange policy. So with that, good capitalization. And then we are at the summary, and then I will not repeat everything that Klara Lise said. We are beginning to enter the landing with regards to questions. But it is a solid result. We have some one-time effects. That's money, too. You shouldn't whine too much about it. It is also a consequence of long-term value creation and building companies over time. Then it is delivered well in full width. Other revenues, I think I demonstrate that in a good way. We have losses, yes, but it is quite limited to one customer in relation to what we expect quarter by quarter. And the solidity is good. So summarized, this was a quarter that we are very proud of. So then we have our responsible for investor relations, Bjørn-Erik Orskau. He sits and has taken, we take questions from the hall first, and then we have from the big internet afterwards.
Are there any people in the microphone to ask? Yes, I have some on the net, so you can start there, and then we can see if anyone... Yes, I found a question. We'll start online. We have two questions from an intern in the bank, Sondre Solberg from Cash Management. Sondre wonders how we evaluate the exchange rate growth at 4.6%. compared to other banks in the Sparbank 1 system, which have reported higher growth rates. Do we plan to increase foreign growth in the future, or are there other opportunities to grow?
That's a good question. I think I should have taken up the slide again that shows the map, which shows that our primary areas are in areas with slightly more negative market views and have had some quarters. At the same time, we actually grow a little more than the markets we are in. I would have said that, and we take market shares, especially the Oslo-Akershus region. So we are satisfied with the growth. I am most concerned that it should be profitable growth. It should not grow at every price. I think it is important that we have reasonable pricing of the engagement we have on credit, and we work with that every day. And then there is a lot of competition, so I am actually quite satisfied with the growth we have from the markets we are in. We don't have so much offshore oil and fisheries around here, so we grow mostly on unity and renewable energy. So we are quite satisfied.
So that was question number two, what we do to increase growth. The drama was well commented, so just repeat that.
And the drama, as I say, we have in the weekly five-person market, there is one in the company, but we see that there is such a good activity level there that we have said we will increase the demand for the company. so that we can take a bigger share of that market. It's also about getting access to new markets, and as I mentioned, Drammen has an undercut of 2% market share, so that's a huge potential, I think.
There is another question from Sondre. It concerns costs. How does the bank manage to maintain the cost percentage at 30%? Is it sustainable? It is interesting to know if cost reduction is a result of medium-term measures or structural changes that can last over time.
Right now, the income side has contributed to us having such a good cost-income. As I mentioned, the costs are a bit lower from last quarter, also when we take away from the bond. Good cost control will be important in the future. At the same time, we have to invest in digitalization, work with and modernize the bank further. The 30% cost income is very low. It is the lowest we have had with the exception of extreme effects.
And the future effect contributes with about 10%?
It does. I think it is a bit low. I would like us to invest in the future to create a country like Bank of Norway in the future.
I can add that 30% is linked to the fact that there are some one-time effects there. But if we correct for that, we have this quarter the next lowest corporate cost percentage we can remember having seen.
But in the future it will be important, because the income side is very open now, and we have to work with the cost side, there is no doubt about that. And now that I am launching the efficiency programs and such today, I think this is something we will work with in the future. Right now the most important thing is the two-tenths version and the integration of it. And there we will have costs that hit in the fourth quarter, so I don't think we will see such low cost percentage in the fourth quarter. That's what I can say. But there will be some muffins that we will not get rid of right now.
We can continue with costs. Alexander Lager from Arctic Asset Management asks, first and foremost, what we can expect from the integration cost method for Q4 and 2025. In addition to that, what can be done with the cost increase in personnel?
2025 is a little too early to say that you will get something in connection with a technical version. We have to expect that. We will make good estimates of that, but first we will have a thorough process together with our suppliers and partners before we get it. And in the fourth quarter, we say a little about the details of the 60 million, but it is obviously advice, legal fees and in connection with EICA. So more than that, I don't think we know yet.
No, and that's exactly right. And I hope to say that we will get to the numbers when we have the numbers that are meaningful to communicate.
Håkon Astrup has some questions. Now we will answer one of them. It is about loss. So we draw up especially one engagement that contributes negatively to loss. Håkon wonders what kind of industry you are talking about, if there have been deductions on the engagement earlier, and if it has been in step 3 for a long time.
We can say that we share, of course, not so detailed information, Håkon, I think you know, but it is a customer we have had a position on before, I can say, but we share a branch on that.
And then there is a question from Roy Tilley in Arctic, if we could talk a little more about the 300 million in capital synergies. He thinks about how they are calculated, where they come from, and maybe a little bit about how they divide themselves in the future.
I can make an attempt. First of all, it's a number we've been working on, both before and after the negotiations with Totens. That's an essential part of it. We come to it in the same way as the estimates that other banks probably make. That is to go in, since I'm talking to an analyst, go into the Pillar 3 report, see the exposures, make some expectations on what risk weight you go through on average from a standard bank to an IRB bank. And then when we say that we expect something to come from the new year, it is because of the CRR3 directive, that is, the new regulations on capital coverage from Europe. Then standard portfolios will come over anyway. We expect to get that pretty quickly, and we haven't split it up, but we'll get back to that later. What remains then is to take it further from the standard method and over in the direction of IRB, and maybe especially BM. It is a longer run, it should be approved by the financial services, and we can say that something was indicated by Sør-Norge about its processes yesterday, and that is the time-saving process for us, and we are a little behind in the race. So we have no indications at the moment, other than that it is important for us to work with it. So it will be divided in two, we will fortunately get some quick effects as a result of DRAERP in the regulation.
And then we have a question from Herman in Pareto. A little more about costs. He asks if we can give some more details on how we see the potential for cost efficiency. And again, he asks if we expect significant fusion costs out of what we are now communicating.
Yes, and then the last one, the first one, we have mentioned. We estimate that it will exceed 60 million in the fourth quarter, as I said, and then we have come back to 2025. And if we look at the costs, for the rest, we have started some internal initiatives to We can reduce the time frame, which is the efficiency of everyday processes. We can make the work smarter, simpler and more efficient. Efficiency of work processes is something we are working on, and we are seeing some results. But we will talk more about the costs in the next quarter. The focus is to get a good integration with Totens, which is the most important for us.
Another question from Herman. He's wondering how much of the negative effect of capital became from the future of the EIKA version?
We haven't been explicit about that, but when I use limited and marginal, I think it's not big. As far as I've read the numbers from some of the colleagues at the banks, we've had some different effects, but for us it's the highest limit.
Then it looks like we're on target with all the questions.
Then I would like to thank everyone for your attention, and I hope you are looking forward to as much as us. We have had a lot of new colleagues today, we are looking forward to that, and we are going to celebrate a little further. Good start in November for us, and here in Gjøvik it is a shining sun. It is a win in the sail too, for those who have been out, so we hope that it brings us good luck in the future. So with that I would like to thank you for your attention, and thank everyone who is in the hall today. And if there are any questions later, send them to us at the address on the first page. Then we will do our best to answer. So, thank you for today. Goodbye.
Thank you for today.