Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Aston Martin Lagonda Full Year Results 2021 Webcast. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be the question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star and 1 on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference has been recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our speaker today, Laurence Stroll. Please go ahead.

Good morning and thank you for joining us for this Q&A on our full year results for 2021. I hope you have had the chance to read the release and also watch my address and the presentation of the results from Tobias and Ken that are on the IR section of our corporate website as usual. My second year as Executive Chairman of this iconic and great company has been another of significant progress. We have successfully transitioned our operating model to that of an ultra luxury brand, with customer demand well ahead of supply. Our core business is strong and delivered to plan, with substantially improved profitability. We have strengthened our teams, adding more luxury and automotive experience to the board, broadening relevant experience at the executive level, and substantially bolstering our operational and development teams. The return of the Aston Martin name to Formula One grid has dramatically increased our brand exposure, desirability, global awareness in line with our growth ambitions. The Aston Martin Valkyrie program pushes the boundaries of what is possible to bring to market outside of the Formula One racing environment. We inherited a challenging program. And while it was disappointing that some deliveries were rescheduled from late 2021, following an in-depth review, and now under a dedicated team, we are confident of continuing to deliver these truly extraordinary vehicles to our customers with no compromises. We have a strong pipeline of extraordinary products to come with both the DBX707 and V12 Vantage this year, and a full new generation of front engine sports cars for 2023. This high performance new portfolio will command much stronger pricing and profitability compared with the past, driving delivery of our financial targets. Our path to electrification is clear, with three of our product launches in 2021 featuring hybrid technology. Our first plug-in hybrid coming in 2024, our first battery electric vehicle targeted for launch in 2025, and all car lines will have an electrified powertrain option by 2026. When I invested, I knew this transformation would take four to five years to recreate Aston Martin as the world's most desirable, ultra-luxury British performance brand. We have made strong progress already and are well on plan to achieve our ambitious goal. And with that, we are now happy to take your questions.

Operator, can we poll for the Q&A, please? Thank you. The participants will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. The first question comes from George Gallius from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

Thank you. Thank you for taking my question. Obviously, you're very excited and enthusiastic about the refresh or the complete revamp to the product line for 2023. Can you give us any insight into what kind of price increase you're expecting as a result of that is the first question. And then the second question is just on the DBX-707. Perhaps you could just give us some indication of what the initial reaction to that vehicle has been and then Any insights into the exact timing from a production ramp over Q2 and Q3 would be very helpful.

Thank you. On the pricing of the sports cars, as I mentioned, with all cars we are delivering now, starting with DBX 707, we will be working on a minimum of 40% contribution margins. That will have an increase... Some of the cars more, some of the cars less. Depending on the models, the prices have not yet been finalized for 2023. But you are correct, it's much more than a facelift. It's a full new generation of sports cars. New exterior styling, brand new interiors, brand new infotainments. new power units, higher horsepower, better vehicle driving dynamics. So it's truly a new generation of sports cars for us in all three models. So it's quite extraordinary, and it's kind of the bridge we've been waiting to get to in 2023, because as you know, front-engine sports cars are the heart and DNA of this company. As far as DBX 707 is concerned, we've had tremendous, tremendous response from our customers. We've never received as many car orders on our configurator in history. Granted, it's a new model for us. But the reception really was a response to the consumer demand that we listened to the consumer who said, we love your DBX. But we would like it to be more aggressive.

We'd like to have more horsepower.

We'd like to have more performance for that certain car enthusiast customer. So we cater with our standard DBX to a customer and create to a more car enthusiast with the 707.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from the land of Charles Caldicott from Redburn. Please ask your question.

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I had two on cash flow, actually. So firstly, on the Valkyrie, deliveries of 75 to 90 units this year, I think that's less than you'd previously expected. Given that you've taken most of the cash for those cars and deposits already, how much cash will that save you this year by not building and delivering as many Valkyries as you'd expected? And then...

Yeah, sure. Yeah, ask your next question. Sure.

And then thinking about the cash flow more broadly for this year. So cash burn of £123 million last year. Obviously, the core EBITDA will be up significantly this year, but so will CapEx. So is it fair to assume that cash burn is going to be similar in 2022 to what it was in 2021? and also thinking about 2023 and the target being cash flow breakeven. What are the major changes next year?

Yeah, Charles, in terms of your second question, it helps answer the first for me. Broadly, yes, you're right. I'm looking at the cash burn being similar to slightly better for 2022 as it was to 2021 for exactly the reasons you say. because we're expecting the EBITDA to be higher, but so too is the CAPEX. And within that, on the working capital movements, I'm expecting the core working capital to be somewhat positive, and I'm expecting the Valkyrie-related deposits to have a modest net unwind. With, yes, some unwind happening, of course, related to the 70 to 90. Yes, a bit lower than it would have been if it were higher. With that unwind mostly offset with fresh deposits on Valkyrie Spider, second deposits on the Valkyrie Spider, and new deposits on Valhalla, kind of balancing that out a bit.

Okay, thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from Philippe Huchois. Please, can you confirm your company?

Yes, good morning. It's Philippe Huchois, Jefferies. Good morning, all. Just a quick question on your guidance. When you talk about the accelerated depreciation of the aging models, we're clear that this will be part of your reported profit. It's not going to be treated as an exception or below the line. Is that correct? Yeah, true. It's just regular DNA. Right. And can you comment more generally about, I understand, although we don't have the numbers, but your whole sales were below your retail again in 2021. You could maybe quantify the amount by which you destocked. and comment about your inventory levels from here. I understand it's generally low compared to history, definitely, but also maybe compared to what we would like to see.

Our inventories have never been better, ours and the dealer's for that matter. We retail, to answer your first question, approximately 400 vehicles more than we wholesale. It might be the first time in this company's history to retail more than we've wholesaled, which was the first step towards what I put in place when I became chairman. As you recall, I said we're going to align demand with supply. We very, very successfully have done that, and as I mentioned, our inventories as well By the way, in the fourth quarter, we even had to ramp up our inventories a bit more in order to get the dealers more stock because their inventory levels were too low. We've never been in a better place, and that's part and parcel of only manufacturing vehicles to order, which is what I said when I took over almost two years ago.

If I can squeeze in the last one, please. The line I looked at the most in your P&L is the gross margin. And I'm a bit disappointed that it hasn't really improved in Q4. And I think that we need to get to 40% as a sustainable level for the property of Aston Martin. So what's the roadmap? Can we expect the gross margin to improve in 22, considering that at the same time you have some aging products? Or is it really dependent on the mid-engine and the new family up front?

So the first new car, under this team's leadership is the DBX-707. That is the first car that will come with a minimum, hope to be more than that, a minimum of 40% contribution margins. And every car that we produce from now on going forward will have that same minimum.

Great. Thank you very much.

Thank you. The next question comes from Pushkal Tendulkar from HSBC. Please ask your question.

Hello, good morning. This is Pushkar from HSBC. I have two questions. The first one is regarding the Valkyrie shipment indication of 75 to 90 units for this year. At the Q3 call, you had indicated a run rate of three Valkyries a week, which at best would mean around 150 cars in 2022, while you now indicate only around half of that as shipments. Please could you just comment around this disparity? And then the second one is on the EBITDA margin guidance. How watertight is this guidance and has room for error been built into it, considering that the main purpose now should be to restore confidence in the company's ability to achieve its targets after the miss last year? Thank you.

Thank you. Firstly, the mist last year was caused by one issue only, which was the Valkyrie. Let me be crystal clear. All these Valkyries are sold. They have deposits, both coops and spiders. We have received no cancellations. So by delivering them slightly later is simply a timing issue. The timing issue arises because we want to deliver these vehicles with no compromises. I think you're having trouble understanding. This is the most complex vehicle ever made to be driven on the road. Being the owner of a Formula One team, I can testify that it's more complicated than building my Formula One car. So we want to deliver them to perfection. They're all sold. They all have deposits. We're taking our time to deliver them perfectly. We've assembled a new group of Formula One mechanics to actually manufacture and put in place these and produce these cars. So it is a project that we are extremely proud of, very ambitious. We're the only ones to undertake such a project, and that was our only miss last year. On much more fundamental importance on the core program, which was over 6,000 vehicles, we were exactly on target. As far as the second question, I'll let Ken respond. It was a financial one. I don't even remember what it was.

Second question... In terms of the margin, clearly, yes, we've sought to strike our guidance at a level that we can meet for 2022. And, you know, as we've done that, we've thought about the margin expansion that we're looking to achieve supported by the new product introductions of the DBX 707. which Lawrence already talked about on the call, and the V12 Vantage, both of which give us a good opportunity to move the EBITDA margin forward.

Thank you.

Thank you so much. The next question comes from Gabriele Adler from Citi. Please ask your question.

Hi, thanks for my question. Can you talk a little bit about your expectations for core ASP this year? Obviously, the lineup refresh in 2023 is going to be very supportive for this. But what should we be expecting in 2022 in terms of ASP improvement from DBX 707 and general price increases, given your comments around the inventory situation earlier?

Yeah, I mean, first off, I'd say we're pleased to see the ASP improve into 2021. around about 150,000 pounds per unit. And although we're not kind of providing specific guidance on the ASP for 2022, the new products that I've just talked about give us the opportunity to think about improving that forward by circa 10% plus in double digit number in 2022. That's certainly what we're going to be looking forward to. It depends a bit on product mix, of course, et cetera, et cetera. With the 707, the V12 Vantage, those products give us a good opportunity to move the overall margin of the business forward. And, of course, that needs to be driven by the top line.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from Thomas Biatto from Kepler Chevrolet. Please ask your question.

I guess it's me. So it's Thomas Besson at Kepler Chevrolet. I have two questions, please. The first relates to deposits. Could you please just comment on the level of deposits at the end of 2021, how it compares with the end of 2020? Was it, therefore, an inflow or an outflow? And whether we should expect an inflow or an outflow in 2022? That's the first question. The second, looking at the prospects of a complete generation change for sports cars if I understand correctly, between Q2 and Q3 next year. Could you just help us understanding how you manage to maintain interest around the existing three vehicles and whether we should expect pricing to hold or to eventually weigh in a bit on these vehicles into their replacement?

Thank you. On the second question first, it is quite incredible and it shows the power of this brand. Sports cars are already sold out into the fourth quarter, beginning of the fourth quarter of this year. That shows how strong our demand is for the DNA and the history of the company. So continue to remain very, very strong order book and Full market price, less VM, no markdowns. So this shows what we put in place at the beginning of aligning supply with demand and only manufacturing vehicles to order. So the sports cars continue to be strong. As I say, sold out right until the beginning of fourth quarter of this year. So we have no problems and concerns whatsoever. about the demand until we deliver the new model, as you rightfully say, in the quarters next year.

And on your first question, it's in the R&S, and we had a £340 million deposit balance at the end of 2021. That was a net £70 million inflow in the year. A bit more than we expected largely because of the pace of Valkyrie deliveries as we already discussed in 2021 and the strong inflow that we saw on Valkyrie Spider, the strong customer reaction also to Valhalla helped drive that inflow in 2021 to the level I just said. For 2022, as I said earlier on the call, I expect probably a net modest unwind of the overall deposit balance with Valkyrie, unwind of deposits relating to Valkyries that we deliver in the year being mostly offset by the second deposits on the spiders and further customer interest in Valhalla.

Thank you very much. Can I squeeze in, Julius, a third question, please? Sure. Thank you, Kofor. Just wanted to check whether your volume guidance, so above 6,600 for the year, given the strengths of sports cars you're mentioning, implies that those categories are going to rise in 2022, sports cars and DBX, or whether we should assume that 100% of the increase in volume in 2022 comes from DBX, and notably the new model?

Yeah, we're not providing a split. of the volume expectations this year. I think Lawrence has already said we're really pleased with the underlying demand for sports cars. This year we also have a V12 Vantage Edition that's coming that will be part of the sports car mix. But yes, at the same time, we do expect most of the growth in volume in the year to come from DBX, obviously driven by both the 707 that the launch is underway and the straight six derivative which we launched in China back end of last year and deliveries commencing this year. Great, Vinnie, thanks. Thank you.

Thank you very much. The next question comes from Horst Schneider from Bank of America. Please ask your question.

Yes, good morning. I'm from Bank of America. Thanks for taking my question, too. I just have got one left, please, and that refers to this arrangement that you have got with Mercedes-Benz AG because you say in their release there are currently no plans to issue additional shares to Mercedes until early 2023. I remember you had a kind of put option in place where Mercedes gets compensation if the share price falls below a certain level. Could you maybe remind us...

of this agreement so what is now the strike price what comes compensation payment you have to make if the price remains as it is right now i know a lot can change within a year but i'm getting it also right there's no payment going to be made this year thank you yeah that's a very reasonable question thanks for that um there's no payment to do this year um what we see is a timing timing change so um when we drafted the whole uh agreement with procedures back in the days it wasn't 20. It was a bit premature, so with new assessments about the technology, we pushed it a bit further down the road, and in our expectation, there's never going to happen a payment.

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from Daniel Reska from Burstein Research. Please ask your question.

Good morning, gentlemen. Lawrence, to me as a team, first of all, congrats on a big step in the right direction. Maybe two strategic ones and a tactical one. First of all, could you give us some more details on the progress of your electrification journey? I saw that on some of the latter slides. What pieces of the puzzle are in place and which areas are you still working on? And then secondly, competitors of yours are spending a lot more time talking about kind of how to integrate the digital lifestyle of their consumers into the cars. As you're thinking on kind of how that relates to a luxury brand like Aston changed or evolved over the past year, kind of how do you see that question of digital lifestyle coming into the car for your brand and how it shapes the luxury image? And just tactically, maybe very short, you know, I'm sure there's some some leeway built into the guidance for material costs and logistics this year. Could you give us just the color, what kind of the margin headwind it is that you're expecting this year from those external cost increases? Thanks.

Do you have the last one? I think in terms of the margin accretion, I think we talked about in the short term we were thinking about the products in front of us and the DBX707, the V12 Vantage, and the next generation of our sports cars, all giving us the opportunity to move the price points of our vehicles northwards, really supported by the product substance that we're putting behind those fresh generation of new products. And as we look forward to electrification, we're thinking about it in terms of The grand development that we're doing combined with product substance within there, looking clearly therefore to sustain the margin improvements that we're going to build over the next two years through into our electrified products.

I take the other ones. Electrification journey. Yeah, it's clear. Plug-in hybrid, first one in early 2024. As you know about HALA, as mid-engine program is a plug-in hybrid. We actually launched, honestly, the straight six in China, which is a mild hybrid. And then we go further down the road. So we have a bespoke electrification program for Valhalla when it comes to the drivetrain. The battery is a shared battery. And we have a clear understanding how we're going to electrify as a plug-in hybrid at EBX and probably as well our classical sports car portfolio as well. as a variant. It's not all of them, but there for sure has a variant in there. And as you know, 25, we're about to launch, and this is a clear target for us, the first electric-driven vehicle with Aston Martin. Digital lifestyle, that's a very good question. This is a kind of a very good discussion anyway in automotive industry, in that industry. not talking about digital lifestyle it's all about for us as a brand in the ultra luxury world it's all about you know customer experience and that's going to get even more important when you come or when you get into the journey of fully electric or beth uh fully electrified cars the brand plays a major role in future and therefore the customer journey is much more important as as of today and the customer experience what you're going to see from us And that starts next year with the new generation sports cars. We're not going to use anymore Mercedes, infotainment, HMI. So we started the journey exactly regarding this issue, exactly because we know that it's very strategic for us for the future. So you're going to see our connected environment, our environment, our air... So everybody take it that way, I'll put it that way, kind of the ecosystem, the digital ecosystem, with an Aston Martin account, with our own back end, with our own HMI, to get on that journey in regards to the customer experience, which is much more important in the future than it has been probably back in the days. Perfect, thanks. You're welcome.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Charles Caldicott from Redburn. Please ask a question.

Hey, sorry. I was on mute. Just had a couple of follow-ups. Firstly, on the order book, I think you mentioned there that the sports cars are now six to seven months worth of orders you've got. I had in mind that previously the average for the group was three to four months. So has that increased significantly? And I think, Tobias, you've said before that you don't want the order book to get too long. Can you just remind us what you think the right sort of length of order book is for a luxury brand like Aston? And then the second question I just wanted to ask was, on the DBX, you've got the more powerful version now with the 707. What do you think the DBX volume should be this year as a result? Beyond that, what will be the most important levers in getting you up to 5,000 to 6,000 units of the DBX per year?

Coming to the order book. It is a good question regarding the order book of the sports cars, but that shows exactly the momentum of the brand. And yeah, we are really good sorted out with the order book for the sports cars this year. But you have to consider, we know that we're going to have An uplift of that, we have a new generation of sports cars with us next year. So we are careful with our initial assumption how many cars we're going to deliver to the market. More important for that order book is how many retail orders you see. And this is a new high. I think ever since the company exists, what we see as retail-type orders, so customers ordering a car with us, that's Almost there will be targeted. So we have a good order book for sports cars. It is, I think, eight, nine months. It could be 12 months. That's perfect. If it's going to be longer, sometimes you have an issue that customers are probably not going to wait anymore in their world of sports cars. It's different for Valkyrie or Specials or other cars. What was the other one? TBX Falling. TBX Falling. If we see such a tremendous 5,000, 6,000 demand on the marketplace, this company is always able to produce that because we are not limited in our infrastructure when it comes to production. There is no limitation for us because everything is, back in the days, was set up in a high level of capacity. So as you saw last year, we consolidated a lot of our sites to be more efficient, and this is what pays off now. Thanks.

Thank you. The next question comes from Jose Asomundi from J.P. Morgan. Please ask your question.

Thank you. Jose Asomundi, J.P. Morgan. A few questions, please. Can you speak, please, a little bit around CapEx and the delta of CapEx between 22 and 21? What are the big projects that are driving this increase in CapEx? And then where are we in the cycle? Are we peaking in 22 or is it 23? Second, Tobias, can you speak a little bit more about this excellent ASP that you're running for the business? We heard about some of the drivers. I believe you mentioned 10% improvement on ASP in 2022 versus 2021. Where do we stand on the cycle? Can you improve the ASP of the business beyond 2022 and make it structural? What are you thinking? How can you do this? This is obviously the biggest delta, obviously, to generate cash and bring higher earnings. And then, Lorenz, On strategy, you put a fantastic team together on the management side. Can you just remind us a little bit what is your number one priority and is there anything on the strategy side that currently you're missing that you would like to add to the company for the medium term? Thank you.

I'll start and then you guys can answer. As far as strategy is concerned, I'm beyond proud and happy and pleased to say We are exactly on plan. There were five milestones, as you're aware, that I had to accomplish when I took over, from the refinancing to deleveraging the inventory to Mercedes joining us as a partner and successfully delivering the DBX first full year last year. And most important, from a marketing point of view, launching our own Formula One team. And the launching of that team has shown in the sales and the demand for the product and the desirability for the brand has truly been incredible. So strategically, I'm thrilled and exactly on plan of where we want to be. And now we will have the launch of all our new front-engine sports cars next year and the launch of our opening price point mid-engine after we deliver our Valhalla. Again, this is technology, some of it taken from our Formula 1 team. So strategically speaking, couldn't be happier. If anything, really ahead of plan based on retail outperforming wholesale significantly last year.

Wonderful. On the CapEx side, the biggest driver going into 2022 compared to 2021 is really the investment in the next generation of our sports cars. That's the biggest single element of spending in 2022 and the biggest reason for the growth. Also, of course, in 2022, We've got spending connected with our electrification program that we talked about earlier in the call, and also the mid-engine program. So all of those things driving some of the growth from 21 into 22. Shall I go on? Yeah. On the ASP development, I think... As we look forward, it's clearly a journey that helps drive the market growth that we're targeting. As we step forward into 2022, we've talked about a couple of the drivers, the 707 and B12 Vantage give us the opportunity to move the overall ASB forward. I think as we look then into 2023, the next generation of the sports cars gives us the opportunity to think about further pricing for the extra product substance that's going into those vehicles as we take them to the marketplace. So a bit early to say exactly where that goes, but we do see the opportunity for further development.

It's a clear strategy to improve ASP further on. So we have the double digit now in 2022 and we have a clear strategy with the new generation of sports cars. And as Lawrence and everybody in the company is clear in the strategy that we have to achieve 40% contribution margin in each and every single product, you can imagine that this is a given target and a given strategy to improve ASP further on. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and 1 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Christoph Lascavi from Deutsche Bank. Please ask your question.

Hey, good morning. It's Christoph from Deutsche. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one will be on headwinds, essentially, from raw materials and input costs. Most of the suppliers are currently negotiating with the OEMs to pass on what we've seen as raw material price inflation, etc. So the question will be, do you see the same discussions right now, and is there a certain risk you put to that for, say, the second half cross margins. And given you just alluded on the ASP strategy quite in detail, the question will be, in case we were to see quite a bit of a demand from suppliers in the second half, I would assume you have enough flex in pricing to just address the new launches that you plan for 2023 in order to show the cross margin that you've just highlighted. And then as a second part of question, just on the core business profitability, is it fair to assume that that is around high single digits right now and the 50% uptick in 22 should put it closer to double digits or in double digits?

Thank you. Hadwin, for regarding supply chain, yeah, absolutely. We face that as well, like everybody. But we gave us the clear task, and we are on a journey there, to reduce our costs further on this year. So we are likewise able to overcompensate that. So there is no... There is always a danger zone for a margin, but this is not... And we are pretty confident that we're going to achieve that, that we can overcompensate everything, what comes in as raw material, price lift, blah, blah, blah. So we face that every day with every supplier almost. But it's a normal business. That's our industry, and every industry at the moment faces the same issues.

And on the second question on the core margin, I think you're talking about, I mean, we're not giving a split of the profitability of business between core and specials. We just wanted to provide a bit of texture. But for sure, the sort of direction of travel that you're describing is not far wrong.

Thank you. And if I can sneak in one follow-up on ASP development across the regions. Seeing the strong demand that you have in North America and Asia particularly, and those have been typically the markets where you achieved the highest ASP. Can we assume that your pricing power there or the uplift that you can get into the market is outsizing the uplift you see in Europe or should it be pretty distributed?

It is similar. We see the same opportunities in Europe. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from Stephanie Vincent from JP Morgan. Please ask your question.

Thank you so much for taking my questions. Just given the news yesterday about a competitor IPO as well as their potential entry into Formula One, I didn't know if you had any I guess, qualitative comments that you'd like to make given some of the news flow about MNF1 over the past few months. And then my second question was, Lawrence, you had made some comments about addressing high-cost debt. Currently, the RCF is drawn. Given your view that you'll return to profitability and better free cash flow position, I guess, from 2023 onwards, any further comments that you'd like to make there or the management team? And then finally, on the deferred tax asset balance, obviously this has risen over the past couple years. Do we have an indication how this is going to wind down over time?

Thank you. Should I take the last one first? You take the last one, I'll pass. All right. Stephanie, good morning. On the deferred tax asset, we expect that to wind down through the next five to... In the latter part of the decade, let's put it that way.

As far as refinancing the debt, you're correct, as I said yesterday, this is very much on our radar. We will be addressing that as the bonds become callable over the next two years.

Okay, thank you. You're welcome.

Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad.

I think we don't have any more questions. Lawrence, did you have a closing remark or two?

No, once again, just to repeat, I'm very proud. In our first full year together as an organization last year, we delivered, as promised, on all our core numbers, the fundamentals of business are in place. We have two exciting launches this year and the very exciting next generation of all our sports cars next year. So our future is mapped out. As we always said, it was from the beginning, and now it's simply a matter of executing on that, and we've shown we're extremely good at executing on those plans. So looking forward for extremely exciting times, and as I leave you, I will head to Barcelona, where our Formula One team currently just took to the track and started testing. Thank you.

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect. Have a nice day.