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Atalaya Mining Plc
11/9/2022
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Atalaya Mining PLC investor presentation. Throughout this recorded presentation, investors will be in listen-only mode. Questions are encouraged. They can be submitted at any time via the Q&A tab that's just situated on the right-hand corner of your screen. Please just simply type in your questions and press send. The company may not be in a position to answer every question it receives during the meeting itself. However, the company will review all of the questions submitted today and publish responses where it is appropriate to do so. Before we begin, I would like to submit the following poll, and if you could give that your kind attention, I'm sure the company would be most grateful. And I'd now like to hand you over to CEO Alberto Lavandera. Good afternoon, sir.
Good afternoon. Thank you very much. And thank you very much to everybody that's taking the time to be with us today. I'm going to go through a presentation highlighting and summarizing the results of the Q3 of this year. And also, what's more important, how are we addressing the future in the near term and in the long term? You have a copy of this presentation in the webpage and I'm going to be following up the slides as we speak. And after the presentation, I will be responding to lots of questions that have been coming through and I believe we will be responding to each and all of them. In general, I believe that the company is well known for most of the investors. So I will not go into any detail. And if there is any question required by somebody because he's not so familiar, please feel free to ask anything at the end of the presentation. In summary, we are going to be looking at the results of Q3 and year to date. And I won't read everything, but I will go directly to the main points. The main points are that from the operational point of view, the production of copper up to 38,000, a bit more than 38,000 tons accumulated every year is taking us to the high end of our last guidance, which will be around 54,000 tons of copper. This production level is consistent with good performance in the operations from the production point of view. And we likely will be able to recover part of the lost production that we had in the first quarter of this year due to our national wide strike in Spain. All-in costs were high. All-in costs were very high at 3.47 due to extreme conditions in Spain, mainly high electricity prices and other inflation, but specifically high electricity prices, which has a lot of influence, as I will speak later. in other costs besides electricity. These were specifically high due to the high demand of gas and electricity during the summer period in Spain. We're looking very positively to Q4, and especially to 2023, because we are getting a new power agreement, which is going to be at a much reduced rate. And also we are building a solar plant for self-consumption, which will reduce our electricity bill. Still, even with all these difficulties of this extremely complicated year, we still have a 37 million euros positive EBITDA through the year, although the results during the quarter have been negative. We have continued to invest heavily in the ELIX, and in the solar plant, but still we are maintaining a very decent balance sheet with a net cash position of 55 million euros and over 100 million in cash and with some additional liquidity through loans that we have not been borrowing. Another important thing that we have seen in these last few months following the decrease in our share price due to the decrease of the copper price is that our liquidity, the liquidity of the shares have increased a lot and this is something that we are very happy for because that was one of the problems in the past. And besides that, the rest, as we have already announced in the past, increases in resources in San Dionisio, San Antonio, Maza Valverde, Cerro Colorado. So basically additional resources for the future of this company. All of them have been submitted in a technical report that has been filed in October. And we are in the process of doing additional work, preliminary studies for these properties that will be published in the first part of 2023. We also published during this year the first sustainability report of the company. So this is a summary. Now going directly to the points. How was the quarter in production? Well, it was back to normal. Slightly lower production, 13,400 tons of copper, slightly lower than one year ago. Similar throughput, similar recovery, a few points lower, but slightly higher rate, similar concentrate rate. So basically a production level which is basically back to normal since our last four years, three years. but the financial results were poor and you can see very clearly and this will respond some of the questions that we have received the first in the revenue having produced the same copper we had lower sales of 82 million versus 107 which means basically around 25 million which is also dollars, lower revenues having produced less. That is as a result of lower copper price. So one of the questions people say, well, your lower results, how much is due to operating costs? How much higher operating costs and how much is of lower revenue? The first part is around 25 million euros less revenue. in a quarter, which is equivalent to 100 million if you think annualized basis, it's a big amount, comes from lower copper price. And operating costs last year, treating the same tons as we said, 3.9 million tons, those tons were treated at 55 million euros, and this year we had 84. That means 30 million euros. 30 million euros extra in a quarter is a huge number. It's equivalent to 120 a year, although the first two quarters were not that bad, and the last quarter is not going to be that bad. Basically, that's adding up those 25 million in lower revenue and higher 30 million, roughly, slightly less than 30 million in revenue. higher operating cost results in a difference of a bit from 40 almost 49 million positive in last year to negative for 4.3 in this year very simple maths as a result of that same thing happens with profits and the same thing happened with with cash flow so in summary The lower results of this quarter are due to lower metal prices and higher operating costs. Being higher operating costs, roughly 60% of the effect and 40% would be related to metal prices. Does this worry us long-term? No. Short-term? Yes, of course. If you look at the lower part of the graph in this slide 8, you will see that we have shown this graph in the past. We have been working seven years with negative working capital, so we are used to tough times. and right now is the opposite we are in a very good position from our cash flow point of view and for our working capital point of view we know this is a hiccup of one quarter and we only have one and a half months to go to get in 2023. looking at the balance sheet i mean and looking at specifically uh what's shown in the lower part of the slide, nine, you will see that we still have a working capital surplus of 106 million. So it gets us in a very good position. Similar debt that we had last year, similar cash and similar net cash position. So although a very difficult year due to lower operating, lower copper prices and much higher operating costs we're still having a very decent balance sheets when you look at year to date you will see exactly the same things that i mentioned when i was speaking in the quarter in the upper part of the slide nine you would see that the revenue this year has been 262 so far three quarters which is roughly 40 million less than previous year and the operating costs are 224 versus 156 so roughly 70 million dollars more and as a result of that last year we had an extraordinary year where we had 104 million profits by this time of the year versus this year we only have 23 which is still a very decent number in spite of the difficulties but uh roughly uh 75 million more or less or less than last year, 80 million less than last year. So why was this? Are we doing something wrong? Well, probably not preventing not having seen this in the past because in 2020, if we consider what's shown in slide 10, the cost of the main inputs, you will see explosives, diesel, tires, electricity, steel, and lime. All starting in basically at the end of 2020 with a level of 100. Explosives basically have doubled the price. So from 100 to 200 in relative terms. Steel balls, same thing, a little bit worse from 100, 200, sorry, diesel, going from 100 to a little bit less than 250, although we are seeing a descent. Tires 50% higher, steel balls 100 to 170, and light from 100 to a little bit less than 200. I left on purpose the case of electricity, which is in the bottom left corner of the slide, which has gone from 100 to basically 400. So we're talking about four times. From all the cost increases that we have experienced this year, and specifically this quarter, 80% of this is due to electricity. And I want to go through a little bit more in detail of the electricity and what we are seeing in the future. Electricity is higher due to the gas prices. The gas prices are higher and they set the marginal cost of production in Spain and they set the marginal price for Spain. And I believe this is the same case in Europe. But also higher gas prices have an influence on the price of explosives because explosives are fabricated from ammonium nitrate, ammonia, which is produced from natural gas. And also high gas prices have an influence in the production of lime as well as electricity because lime is produced by burning with gas stones of limestone. And also has an influence in steel balls because not only is the price of the steel, but the price of hardening the steel balls is done with induction furnaces, electricity, or with gas. So you can see what's the big influence of the gas in our company. So what are we seeing for, before we get into the markets, what are we seeing for this last quarter and beyond? We believe we are going to end the year, as I said before, in the high end of 54,000 tons of copper. We believe that the electricity prices are going to be going down, substantially down from 290 that were the average in the quarter three. We have seen the prices of electricity being less than half of this during the last four weeks. And going beyond that, in 2023, we are kicking in with a new power purchase agreement, the PPA, and building a solar plant, which we are starting to get the materials now. So in the future, no matter what happens with electricity prices and the gas prices, this high peaks of this year are not going to be there. We are seeing for the whole year, all in sustaining costs between 325 and 345 due to the high influence of this quarter, hopefully in the low end of that. So let's look at the big influence of our high costs and how do we see it in the future. In the lower part of slide 13, you will see the evolution of the year in detail, each quarter. There's a big spike at the left, which is the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. And there's another spike in September, August, which was the moment where the gas pipes in Ukraine in the northern, in the Baltic, were blown in addition to coincident with the August season, holiday season in Spain with lots of people and a huge heat wave that you may also remember because it also was felt all over Europe. In those moments, the prices, the average prices in Spain were 450 euros per megawatt hour. Remember that what we had last year was 60. you will also see in that graph in the bottom part of the graph that we have been around 100 to 120 in the last four weeks so we are looking with optimism the remaining of the quarter if you look the upper part of the of the slide, you will see some shaded areas where you can see the average prices that have been experienced in Spain since 2016. Always between 50, 70, 60, that has been the tendency, with a lower spot in 2020 due to the recession. And in 2021, we had a long-term agreement of 60, which was well below what was experienced in the market. In 2022, we were exposed to the market, But the most important thing is what you see in the right part of that graph. You will see two lines there, two lines there in reddish and orange that go between 50 and 70, which means that we have a power purchase agreement with our supplier for 10 years for one third roughly of our consumption at 54. The rest will come from the market. And in addition to that, starting in 23, we'll have a solar plant, which will give us another 20% of our needs, basically at zero price, which means that no matter what happens in the rest of the year, of our hours, it means we'll have a much lower average electricity price than we had these years. Even if the electricity price stayed as it was in 21, 22, we will still have enjoy a very low average of sub 100 euros per mega hour, which is a huge reduction in costs. of our company. Looking at the gas, I told you, I just said that the gas has a big influence in the price of electricity for Europe, for Spain specifically, but also has a big influence in lime, cost of lime and explosives. The prices, evolution of prices since 2020 are shown in the graph. In orange is the prices in Spain, In black, the prices in Europe. You can see that in the last part of 2022, the last six months, the prices in Spain have been substantially lower than the rest. And this is due to the fact that Spain has lots of availability of LNG tankers that are coming from every place. We are not connected. almost not connected at all or influenced at all by the gas coming from eastern europe and from russia specifically so with those conditions actually the prices of gas have even reached very low levels almost back to to normal levels that were experienced in in mid 21. We see this going like this during this winter and let's hope that the situation in Russia and Ukraine is sorted out before the next winter. So this will have a positive effect in other consumers like explosives and lime and a little bit in steel balls. Although we are taking actions by importing balls from other places like Canada and Australia where the prices of gas and steel are not as high as in spain why we believe that the prices in the long term in spain are going to be much better electricity well you can see in the lower part of graph slide 15 how since 2018 the compounded growth of installation of of solar and wind has been growing at very high levels in the last five years and it continues to do that in Spain so you understand this graph or you understand the importance of this graph this is means that almost this is equivalent to building almost a nuclear plant every year so in two or three years Spain in theory should be a very good position due to the strong prevalence of solar and wind in spain actually if you look at the upper graph you will see that actually the influence of of the the influence of of gas is not that important uh the import is has been around 33 percent in 21 and year to date 38 but has been going down so i think spain is a unique position to experience low electricity prices in the future which would have an influence in the 50 percent of the hours that we have not already agreed to with our part power purchase agreement and with the solar plant what's the influence of this electricity well you can see it in slide 16. the influence of electricity alone was an increase of 280 percent and basically itself alone meant almost one dollar per pound in our cash costs, all in cash costs, which means that you are telling you here the huge potential of reduction of costs and cash generation, of course, as soon as we have this wind, sorry, as soon as we have this solar and the power purchase agreement in place. So what are we doing? I just mentioned. We are advancing fast track, our solar plant. We are also evaluating other alternatives, which are, I will show you a little bit, like wind. We are also building the helix phase one, doing some studies for longer term deposits of growth in San Dionisio, Maza Valverde, and Tauru, we continue with the permitting. Those measures from their cost reduction are going to lower cost structure besides lower lowering our carbon footprint put into production the sandinista satellite will mean high rate high grade means lower costs means higher production higher capital and extend by total production will get a multi-asset producer with higher production and more which will result in reduced cash costs, all-in costs, and of course, profits.
Look at this slide.
about constructed or very almost constructed which by the way is the largest self-consumption station in Spain in addition to that we don't stop we I mentioned before in previous quarters that we were looking at wind also there's some wind in our area the the previsibility study that we have completed is showing that there is good potential to construct four wind towers so for us around six megawatt each and for that we have already installed a big measuring antenna or device i don't know how you call a tower 100 meters high which what you see in the slide 20 in the right side which are taking measurements at different levels to correlate to the 20 years measurements that we have on ground level. And that we believe we will be able to get a decision, if not this year, early next year. We believe that there is potential to produce another 15% of our needs from these wind turbines for self-consumption, which is cheaper, no taxes, no access to the net and so on. In the past, we have also talked about ELEX. ELEX, for those of you who do not know, is a system that we have been working for six years with a lady that discovered this, building a pilot plant. And finally, we decided to go ahead. In September, no, end of August, there was nothing there where I'm showing in the site I'm showing now in the picture. This is a building of 130 meters long, so it's not a small building. You can see how advanced it is, and we believe we are going to be able to put this into commissioning in the first quarter of 2023. Things are going very fast. What this will do is be able to produce metal directly, copper or zinc, or both or separate, we will start with zinc, which right now we are not getting any value at all. Zinc containing our concentrates as a by-product, but we are leaving room to expand and produce also copper. So as you can see, we don't waste time and things are advancing and moving extremely fast. I talked about Sandinicio. This slide in 22 showing you where is the Sandinicio. It's basically expansion of the existing pit. of Atalaya, push it back and mine the high grade zone that was left there. We continue doing drill holes in Valverde as well as a preliminary study and permitting. And in slide 24, there is a slide that shows something that I spoke before. What's the effect of bringing in San Dionisio? and San Antonio. San Dionisio and San Antonio are satellite deposits that are besides the existing pits. San Dionisio is open pit with a grade of around 0.8%. San Antonio is underground with a rate of 1.5%. And that slide in 24 shows that by bringing in one third of the San Dionisio in with Cerro Colorado, gives you a production of uplift of 16,000 to 21,000 tons of extra copper, which means that in two years from now, our company will be able to be producing from Rio Tinto, from this site, over 70,000 tons of copper from the 56 that we produced in 2021 or the 55 that we are likely going to be producing in 2022. So this is a big addition with our existing installations without any further big investment. And that shows you a little bit the potential of this San Dinizio deposit. A total, just a small reminder, what was there. This is a brownfield site. What you see in the upper slide is the old mine, which has been partly restored. In the lower slide, you see the actual quarry where they are mining waste for aggregate. And why we got a negative environmental impact declaration in our permitting attempt back in 2020 was due to the legacy water, legacy situation with acid waters from previous operators. What we did is, you know what, let's fix it. Let's show the administration that it can be fixed. And we did that. before advancing what you see in the right part of the pictures in slide 26 is the dirty water from the river coming in red color and the lower right picture the same water coming out absolutely clear the administration there in galicia is extremely pleased with what we have done the rivers have recovered back the the color and the quality and i'm very sure that this will serve to demonstrate that with modern techniques and with being professional, the bad history of the previous operators doesn't need to be an impediment, doesn't need to be a problem for a modern mind. And we believe we are going to be getting the permits. So with that, I will pass it, I will get into the question and answer session
and alberto if i may just jump back in there and thank you very much indeed for your presentation this afternoon ladies and gentlemen please do continue to submit your questions just by using the q a tab that's situated on the right hand corner of your screen but just while alberto takes a few moments to review those questions that were submitted already i would like to remind you the recording of this presentation along with a copy of the slides and the published q a can be accessed via your investor dashboard Alberto, we did receive a number of pre-submitted questions ahead of today's event. And as you can see in the Q&A tab, we have received a number of questions during the presentation itself. So firstly, thank you to everyone on the call for taking the time to submit their questions. And Alberto, if I could just hand back to you to address those questions where it's appropriate to do so, and then I'll pick up from you at the end. Thank you.
Thank you. I will try to respond to all the questions. There are lots of questions and some of them I see that I have already replied, but as usual, I will reply each and all. First one, I see a big decrease in EBITDA. How much is the decrease from cost increases and how much is lower cover price? I think I mentioned that. Roughly 40% is due to lower cover price, 60% is due to the cost increases. Next question, what would cash cost be if electricity go back to normal? It looks like there is solar inflation, not just electricity. That's perfect. I've shown that the electricity actually is a big issue. If electricity went back to normal, normally our electricity was around $0.15 per pound. when you go to 300 it's one dollar per pound so there's a potential of around 80 cents saving just in electricity other costs are linked with with the cost of explosives are not that high although the price of explosive has doubled due to the price of nitrogen and the and ammonia ammonium nitrate that's only part of the of the equation so it's not that influential i would roughly say that from the spike in costs 70 percent will be electricity and 30 percent all others And by the way, there is possibility of bringing lime from import, which we are looking at it right now. There's possibility of bringing bolts from other places of the world. And diesel is still high. It looks like it's going down, but still high. But there is no possibility of reduction of electricity costs, except the way we are doing it. Next question is when did you plan to give another update on inspiration results? Actually before the year end. Sorry before the this the end of this month will give an update of the expression results. I Don't know if it's in two weeks or in that order or three weeks, but normally around on or around before end of November If you get total permits, that's the next question, what are your plans for electricity there? Is solar possible? It looks cloudy in the photo. It's true that the price of electricity It's important. And are we going to build a solar plant? Yes, we are going to be putting a smaller plant of around 20 megawatts on top of the old tailings. If I give you an idea of what's the, we have already the studies, the studies of the generation of electricity in this area. And if the cost of electricity in Spain with the precision in this part of the south of Spain was around 2.28, 28 euros megawatt hour, there would be around 35. So yes, it's not that sunny, but it's still very positive. The rest of the electricity will come from the Porto de Mouros Dam, which is a dam from the old FENOSA, Naturgi, which is just 14 kilometers away, which is all hydro so actually the case of total will be a place where basically we'll be getting 100 of the warrantied 100 renewable electricity next question is what is your view of the cup price in the future I see capex blocks in project from Tech and TSX coal miners this is a very good question I'm been advocating that the cover price will have to go up in order to incentivize prices. The case of tech with Quebrada Blanca is one more of the cases. Even a company like Anglo American, where they recently finished the project of Keyabeco and they said it was on time on budget. It was on time and on budget after the last budget had been made, but the reality is this project took 15 years to construct. The case of Quebrada Blanca is the same thing. I think there's huge complex blowouts in these places. Not so much for the inflation of materials, but especially due to travel complications, infrastructure complications. Most of the projects are in the middle of nowhere and they require huge infrastructure spendings. It's still limited traveling. And this is a problem for new products, which means that the copper price will have to go exponentially high in order to get these mines up and running. I've seen lots of, I don't know when it's going to go up, but I'm 100% sure the prices of copper will go well over $5 per pound. I'm not sure if it's going to be in 2023 due to this semi-recession that we are seeing, but it will have to go substantially higher in order to incentivize these new projects in Indonesia, British Columbia, Peru and Chile, some parts of Africa. I mean, nothing is easy. Whatever is left is not that easy. Another question is, what will LX produce, copper, zinc or both? Yes, correct, it's both. Initially, it is, actually the way it does, it dissolves copper concentrates which contain zinc, but it could also be copper-zinc concentrates. The way it works, more or less, is that zinc dissolves much faster, like 100 times faster than copper, which means if you don't apply very strict conditions, you get dissolved all of the zinc without touching the copper. So you could produce zinc without touching the copper and still sell copper concentrates. And that's how we will start. But having said that, we will be producing also copper in the future and copper cathodes in the future. Another question is, since you installed the water plant at Toro, has the community view on the project changed? Absolutely, 100%. We have a huge support from the community and we have had visitors from the municipalities around coming and seeing the project, taking pictures. We have been in the newspapers. We have absolutely full support of the community. I think actually we always had it. This was more of a political issue with some of political parties small political parties making using the total flag against the conservative government but i think the situation is changing it has changed and right now there are not that many industrial projects being built in galicia and we believe that this this project is going to go ahead because simply there's no reason why not The next question is solar plan. Do we have an exact date when this will come online? Or we know currently second half of 23. Yes, that's what we are saying because still could be some small issues. There are two parts. One is what we have to do. And the other thing is what the electrical company has to do. Building some connections and some changes in their substation. And we don't like to give specific dates. We expect it to be around June, but we don't want to give a specific dates because remember three years ago that we had a delay of the electrical company by supply to supply the electricity for the new expansion and They were delayed like we were delayed like three months due to the electrical company being a little bit slower than we were so we believe is going to be let's say the first part of the second half of 23 and We are pushing us. As you know, we always go very fast, but it's a little bit out of our control. The important thing here is that this is something that goes forever, and it has a life of 20 years, so it's done once and forever. The next question is, carbon crate, do we qualify? Are we trading this crate, or will we be able to trade this when solar and wind fully come online? My question, my response is I don't know. And I will ask. It's a very good question and I really don't know. Aim. Another question is aim. When do we exit? You mentioned liquidity increase. This would help our application to the main board. This is correct. The liquidity important to the size of the company, which since the share price decrease has not been so good. But Yes, I think we will apply to the main board. When do we exit? I think by the end of this year, we'll have everything ready to have moved from Cyprus and it will be sometime in the first part of 2023. The other question is in Spanish, but I will translate it to English. Hello, Alberto and Cesar. Years before, we had a very simple calculation, sales in pounds multiplied by the price and by the difference in price in the obtained price and all in costs. This calculation was more or less coincidence with the EBITDA accounting EBITDA. In this year, it's not like that. The EBIT, not the EBITDA, is lower. How what is it the reason is this recurrent well it should be similar i i don't know why it is different so we'll try to answer you walter i really don't know it should be the same i i really don't know our numbers are quite simple so i really don't know unless it's due to the the difference between the obtained price and the adjustment of sales of the previous quarter that are adjusted in the next quarter. Maybe that's the difference, but I really don't know. I don't think it should be a big difference. But we will come back to you, Walter. When do we look at other verticals? with cost of transportation and our overlays on China, we will not supply car manufacturers directly with copper wire? I don't think so. The reason why I don't think so is that the manufacturer of wire, from what I know, is a very specialized business because it requires not only pure copper, but some additional materials that are going into the mix in order for the very fine wires not to break. The way they fabricate the wires is basically taking a thicker wire and extending it at a constant speed. And it's very tricky that these wires do not break, especially when you get to the millimeters and lower. So it's very difficult to go directly into the manufacturer's chain. And by the way, we don't feel they will get a big advantage because we get paid the LME with minimum discounts and the smelters sell them the pure metals with a small premium. Acquisitions, any update on opportunities better to buy when assets are depressed? Well, we continue to look at things. The values have been going down, but we have been looking at lots of things, but they're not that are not that many good opportunities around there especially that they are very close to to production we believe that the best opportunity right now so far although we are looking at things are the development of the development of san dionisio and the total that will create a huge value to this company I have another question here. We said, will you consider entering into electricity derivative contracts as a way to hedge or stabilize your future electricity costs? Or do you consider this too late to execute this and prices can only go down? Actually, this is a very good point because actually the PPA that we have has been created because we forced the supplier to use a long-term contract when we saw there was a decrease in price back in February. We have been looking at the future prices that are in OMIP. There was a decrease in 15th, 14th, 15th of September, where the prices of the futures for 10 years went down to 65 or around that. That was a good opportunity, but the opportunity was a very small window. And now if one wanted to get into 10 years contract, starting in 23, you will be seeing 85 euros, which is 20 euros more. We believe the market is going to be much lower than that in the long term. So as we approach 23, the prices started going up. So it's true that's a little bit late to execute this. But yes, we are looking at that constantly, almost actually daily. Thanks for the presentation. When is Atalaya expecting to release the results for the PAs of Sandinista and Massa Valverde? I would say first quarter. We are forcing the consultants to try to have the results ready by the end of the year, January. So the first quarter of 23 would be okay. Another question is... Expected first power date from the solar plant. How far along on construction to date? Storage batteries for wind and solar. Well, I mentioned before, we're talking about the second part of the year, likely the first part of the second part. We have basically the panels arriving and in theory, the construction including substation is eight months. So we are around there. We look at the storage batteries. We spoke with Vanadium Flow suppliers. They are not economic to the amounts that we are talking about. We will be looking at producing hydrogen because we have some ideas and also we are looking at a water battery which is basically pumping storage And we have had several studies already by putting a small installation where we can pump water in this basically call it three periods in the mid of the day when the electricity prices goes down big time and then generating electricity in eight or nine, basically when the sun goes down and when the sun goes up. but this is with pump and storage water between two dams that we have here that supply us water. The potential there for our installation would be like seven megawatts constant would be produced this way, but something that's still under study and we have an engineering company doing that. Another question is, can you provide more detail on where the sink containing feed to the helix arises and the approximate grade and expected recovery? Our concentrates right now have around 5% of zinc that's not paid and it's also not penalized with around 21-22% copper. We have been making tests on our, which means if you multiply by 250,000 tons of concentrate, Basically, it means that we have roughly 10,000 tons, 10 to 12,000 tons of zinc in our concentrate that right now are lost and not paid. At current prices, this means around $25 to $30 million, which are not penalized, but also not paid. Our recovery in zinc is very high in helix. It's, I would say, higher than 95%. I want to be careful there, but it's very high in that range. Another one is, we see two main shareholders in the company, Urión and Janghoon Copper. Is that correct? The shareholder structure is therefore stable. Are these two long-term holders? Well, I think you're looking at probably an old slide or maybe an old presentation and sorry if we have not updated that. Urión is Trafigura and these are 22% shareholders. They have been here for six years. And the company, it's in mining, but it's also in trading. So at the right time, they have always been very supportive. They are the shareholders that had 50% of Matza, which in the last year, well, early this year, they had 50% and the other 50% was Mubadala from Abu Dhabi. And they sold this to Sunfire for 1.8 billion. Well, this thing could also happen in our case, so it's their problem. Then Juve Copper is a smelter that's no longer a shareholder. It's a big smelter that got into problems with real estate and debt, and their shares were liquidated, I would say, five months ago. And now our second shareholder is a Spanish company, fund or group of funds called Cobas, that you well know, Marcos, headed by Paco Parames, which has roughly 10%. Other big shareholders around 4% and 5% are Fairfax from Canada, which is similar to Bruce Hathaway, Conwave, Polar, black rock fidelity in spain we have others like mufa in general nobody can save their long-term holders we are quite happy with it with existing shareholder base Another question is, can you please remind us of the dividend guidance for 2022? Is there a dividend guidance for 2023? The dividend guidance policy has not changed. We will distribute between 30% and 50% of free cash flow. We hope that we can generate some cash flow during this quarter, and then we will probably apply another extra dividend in 2022. corresponding to the year. In 2023, we'll go back again to the same guidance. We will distribute between 30% and 50% of the excess cash flow. What percentage of the total have we earned it in? That's the next question. Do any of our projects have royalties payable in future production? Right now, in total, we have a 10%, but we carry all the costs. And we have a right... at any time to get first to another 40% upon permits, another 30% up to 70% paying small amounts once we start construction. So this 60% additional is basically all limited to the risk of the project. So we will not pay anything, but we have the right to do it at any time. unless we get the permits. And then we have another extra 10% in exchange of our royalty. So they will keep up royalty of 0.75%. And we will have the right to buy this royalty out and to get to 80%. So total, we will end up having 80%. and have been paid, if I remember well, 18 million euros to get to this 80%. All these payments are linked to permits and construction. And we don't have any other royalties in Rio Tinto. M&A opportunities pipeline, well, I mentioned before, we have been looking at lots of things and we are looking at lots of things. But the pipeline right now is full with our opportunities. Those of the near term are getting San Dionisio up and running in less than two years, if possible, something already next year, and getting the permits of TOTO during 2023. Next question is, can you remind us again what steps need to be taken and what's the potential timeline for the permits of TOTO project? The permits are not dependent on us. We believe, or we have been told, or we have seen the signs that we'll get the permits of this total project during 23 and early part of 23. And as soon as we get those, we will start construction. Steps, basically, it's in the side of the local authorities, regional authorities. which basically have to submit a positive environment and back declaration following the modifications we have done to the project, improvements that we've done to the project. And well, we are quite confident we'll get it this year. Next question is, do you have a view on the copper price for 23? It's a crystal ball. Who knows what's happening with the recession? I think at the moment, China, starts moving a little bit. It's not only China, it's the rest of the world. You have seen what has happened. The moment that China gave some indications that we're open a little bit, the lockdowns, the copper price spiked because the physical copper market is very tight. Right now, there's no copper whatsoever. And also, if there is any problem in the suppliers, we will really be very tight and the copper price can go to at any moment. any comments around the announcement that came while you were presenting about Mr. De Gallo selling all his shares to the company? Well, it's a private reason, and I can tell you I know the reason. He wanted to buy a house for one of his daughters, and he needed the cash. That's all. I don't think there's more to say. And I think it's the same question that comes later. The reason why he gave this is basically... he sold it, is that he was waiting for the blackout period. At the moment we had the announcement out, he didn't want to take advantage of the share price going up. So actually he sold it at the weakest moment after bad results, which I think speaks well of what was his intentions. Any range in cash cost for Massa Valverde San Dinizio? How much reduction would add? with higher cover price. Congratulations to keep a strong balance sheet in a tough situation. Well, no, no indication for Masa Valverde yet. In San Dionisio, yes, we have certain indications because we know, and they are very easy to calculate. San Dionisio will be blended with the existing Cerro Colorado. It has a much higher grade and has higher stripping costs, but due to the higher production and higher grade the the cash costs are going to go down significantly and production we would probably add another 20 000 tons of copper 15 000 tons of copper is there a value in historic tailings using new mining techniques we don't think so at this stage but We keep an eye because the old tailings are basically gold and silver. There's not much left in the copper. We are leaving our tailings with 0.06% copper, but the old tailings have around 0.5 grams of gold, actually 0.4 grams of gold and 35 grams of silver. We have done lots of test work and these are highly refractory. So we don't see that this gold and silver prices, they're economic. But in theory, there's like a 1 million ounce equivalent in those 29 million tons of tailings. And if the prices of gold and silver went high enough, then it would be economic. Another question is, is there a long-term strategy to become a clean power supplier beyond mine life? uh beyond my life yes and actually we have certain plans that we that we have not published yet but certainly we see that the future of this once this area is mined out there is a good possibility good possibility of having a huge solar plant in our installations or around our installations but certainly I think that's 15 to 20 years away from us. So it's just future. Next question and final is, Alex, you are building the plant. Could this be copied by others? Will you be able to monetize this outside of Spain? Well, we are a first commerce and the patent is held by the owner of the technology. We have the exclusivity in part belt. That's where it can be better. can be copied by us, it can, but it's not going to be so easy. This is the first time it's done in the world. So, of course, the same way that a telephone is copied, I think they will be able to copy it, but it will not be so easy. Will we be able to monetize this out of Spain? Yes, because we can apply this technique to other projects. are complex. Why I say this is that I don't think this helix is going to be a game changer in EC deposits. So a copper deposit that has a smelter very close by, I don't think this will be better. But this will be very interesting for projects that have high arsenic or high antimony or mercury or very remote And for those, we have also the right of refusal if this lady sells the technology. So yes, I think we will be able to monetize this by providing these techniques in other deposits. And that's part of the game that we are doing right now by looking at other companies where we can apply this knowledge or this investment that we have done along this in this past five years. Well, lots of questions. And I think I will pass it to you, Jack.
Alberto, absolutely. And thank you for being so generous with your time there and addressing every single question that came in from investors this afternoon. And of course, if any further questions do come through, we'll make these available to you immediately after the presentation has ended for you to review and then add any additional responses where it's appropriate to do so. Alberto, perhaps before redirecting those on the call to provide you with their feedback, which I know is particularly important to yourself and the company, if I could please just ask you for a few closing comments to wrap up with, that'd be great.
Yes, I think I would summarize that has been a very tough quarter. I would say a very tough year for us, for Europe, for Spain. The way I see it is that the worst is behind us. We are looking forward only a month and a half to get into 2023. We have passed very difficult moments in the past, so I think we'll also pass this one. It's the first time we have a negative EBITDA in the seven years we have been operating, even with tough situations. It's out of our control, but we are doing what we can. But this is a long-term project. This is a project that initially had 12 years life. We have consumed seven and we still have another 15 ahead of us. So I'm sure we'll have some difficult times ahead. But what I'm sure is that we'll have lots of good times. And since we believe that the cover price is going to be high for longer, in a very good position and we have if we have been able to pass these difficult times we will be able to to enjoy that in the in the good times so we're just looking forward to take away 22 and start in 23. and i thank everybody to to the support i've received lots of of support from shareholders from of all types for our hard work and that helps us a lot to continue that way So thanks very much for your attention.
Alberto, that's great. And thank you for updating investors today. Could I please ask investors not to close this session as you'll now be automatically redirected for the opportunity to provide your feedback in order that the management team can better understand your views and expectations. This will take a few moments to complete, but I'm sure be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of Atalaya Mining PLC, we would like to thank you for attending today's presentation. That now concludes today's session, so good afternoon to you all.