Bank of Cyprus Holdings

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Myrtle, your course call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Bank of Cyprus conference call to present and discuss the preliminary group financial results for the year ended 31st December 2021. All participants will be in listening only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephones. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Panikos Nikolaou, Chief Executive Officer, Ms. Eliza Livadiotou, Executive Director of Finance, and Mr. Dimitris Dimitriou, Chief Risk Officer. Mr. Nikolaou, you may now proceed.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our full year 2021 Financial Results Conference call. I'm joined by Eliza Livadiotou, Executive Director of Finance and Legacy, Dimitris Dimitriou, Chief Risk Officer, and Anita Bablou, Manager, IR and ESG. As well as our regular quarterly results, importantly today we are updating and upgrading our medium-term strategic targets and the majority of our presentation will focus on that. Elisa will give a briefer than normal update on our financial results and then I will present our updated medium-term strategy and targets. Our comments on the results will be brief than normal. Our disclosures are unchanged and you will find all the usual information in our presentation pack and associated materials. And of course, we remain available for questions both during this conference call and afterwards. I will start by highlighting some of the key achievements for the year on slide five. will deliver a profit after tax before non-recurring items of $91 million. The reported result for the year was a net profit of $30 million after restructuring another related cost of $61 million. In 2021, we managed our cost base carefully and kept our total operating expenses below $350 million. Our cost to income ratios stood at 60% flat on the prior year. Our capital position has strengthened during the year. As of 31st of December 2021, our capital ratios on a traditional basis were 20.8% for total capital and 15.8% for CT1, both pro forma for trades. We successfully refinanced our Tier 2 at a significantly lower coupon rate and initiated emerald issuance with the inaugural issuance of 300 million single preferred nodes that allowed us to achieve our interim emerald requirement as of 1st January 2022. Balance sheet de-risking is now largely complete. During the year, we reduced our pro forma NP ratio to 7.5% and up 3.1% on a net basis. Overall, in 2021, we have reduced MPs by 75%. Our positive performance during the year and the solid growth outlook for the Cyprus economy has allowed us to update and upgrade our targets for the medium term. We now expect to reduce our MP ratio to 5% by the end of 2022 and to less than 3% by the end of 2025. We reiterate our focus on creating shareholder value and increase our median return on tangible equity target to over 10%, providing the foundations for in turn of dividend distributions from 2023 onwards subject to performance and relevant approvals. Sustainability will continue to be embedded in our culture as we lead the transition of the local economy to a sustainable future. We commit to becoming carbon neutral ourselves by 2030 and to have net zero emissions by 2050, which at the same time will support our customers and communities in this transition. I will now hand over to Elisa to take you through our financial results for the year. Elisa.

Thank you, Banikos, and good morning from me too. So starting from slide six, here we summarize the key highlights of the fourth quarter. I'll briefly go over this. I'll start with the economic context. Year 2021 saw a strong recovery in the Cypriot economy after a period of pandemic-related disruption, providing an improved backdrop against which the bank performed well. GDP grew by 6% in the fourth quarter, well above the Eurozone average of 4.6%. During Q4, we continued to support the country's return to growth and extended a further €471 million in new lending. Overall, we granted 1.8 billion new loans for the year 2021, an increase of a third compared to the previous year, recovering towards pre-pandemic levels. The strong recovery in new lending lays down the foundations of our growing confidence that loan growth will accelerate over the next few years, which we will discuss in more detail later. During the fourth quarter, we have generated a total income of 154 million euros, up 11% on the previous quarter, driven mainly by higher non-NII, which resulted in a positive operating result of 55 million euros. Total operating expenses remained broadly flat Q&Q at 87 million, and with rising income, this resulted in a cost-to-income ratio of 57% for the quarter, down 7 percentage points on the previous quarter. The underlying result for the quarter was a profit after tax before restructuring charges of 27 million euros. In December 2021, the group completed a small targeted voluntary staff exit plan at a one-off cost of 16 million euros. The gross annual savings are estimated at around 3% of total staff costs. Despite this charge, overall, the fourth quarter was profitable with profit after tax at 10 million euros. Our capital position is robust. As mentioned earlier, our capital ratios were 20.8% for total capital and 15.8% for CT1 as of December, both pro forma for health for sale loans. Deposits increased in the quarter by 2% to 17.5 billion euro, and we continue to operate with a significant liquidity surplus that now totals almost 6.4 billion. Turning now to balance sheet de-risking. As a reminder, in the fourth quarter, we signed an agreement for the sale of 600 million euro NPEs in Project KILIX 3, a profitable and capital accretive transaction. Additionally, we organically reduced NPEs by a further 400 million euro during the year. Overall, in 2021, we have reduced NPEs by 75% on a pro forma basis. The performance of the loans under expired moratoria remains solid. 96% of performing loans whose payment deferrals have expired presented no arrears. This continues to be a better performance than expected, now more than a year after deferral expiry, and bodes well for future trends. Moving now to slide seven, where we provide an overview of the macroeconomic conditions. The economy continued to grow in the fourth quarter by 6%, facilitated by a rebound mainly in tourism, trade and professional services. The economy has quickly recovered to pre-pandemic levels, demonstrating its open, small and dynamic characteristics. For 2022, GDP is expected to grow by around 4%. And with the additional implementation of the Cyprus Recovery and Resilience Plan, growth is expected to be sustained at pre-pandemic levels. 2021 tourist activity recovered significantly year on year and the tourist season was extended until late October. Overall, arrivals in the second half of 2021 reached around 70% of 2019 levels. Tourism is expected to recover fully by 2023 to 2024. As Panikos already mentioned, the majority of the focus today will be on our medium-term guidance, and as a result, I will not speak to all of the slides that I normally would. They're all available for you to review, but instead, I wanted to pick up a few important trends. So, moving to slide 12 on the income statement. Net interest income increased to $73 million for the fourth quarter, driven mainly by larger volumes of loans and interest collections. NII for the full year 21 amounted to 296 million compared to 330 million the year before, down by 10% year-on-year, impacted mainly by the continuing pressure from the low interest rate environment and the completion of Helix 2. Non-interest income for the fourth quarter was at 81 million euro compared to 68 in the prior quarter. The quarterly increase is mainly due to higher net insurance income and revaluation gains in financial instruments. For the full year, non-interest income increased to €285 million, supported mainly by higher fees and commissions. Overall, non-interest income was up 20% year on year, more than offsetting the negative NII impact from de-risking and continuing pressure from low-interest rate environment. Total operating expenses stood at €87 million for the fourth quarter and €347 million for the full year, broadly flat both on the prior quarter and the prior year. Provisions for impairments for the fourth quarter of 24 million comprise loan credit losses of 9 million, impairments of 23 million, mainly relating to large illiquid revenue assets, and reversal in litigation of around 8 million euro due to revised estimates for cases provided for. Profit after tax and before non-recurring items was at 27 million for the fourth quarter and 91 million euro for the year. Restructuring and other costs of 13 million in Q4 relate mainly to the 16 million cost of a small targeted voluntary staff exit plan that took place in the fourth quarter. For the full year, restructuring and other costs remain broadly flat, year on year at 32 million. We achieved a return on tangible equity before non-recurring items of 6.6% for the fourth quarter and 5.5% for the full year. The overall result was a profit after tax of $10 million for Q4 or $30 million for the full year. Moving now to slide 13, there are various factors here that drive NII. Whilst volume trends are encouraging, margins will likely remain under pressure in the near term. On slide 16, I'd like to mention that non-interest income grew strongly in the fourth quarter, reflecting mainly higher net insurance income and increased evaluation gains from financial instruments. Net fee and commission income amounted to $172 million for the year, up 19% on a year-on-year basis. Again, Banikos will discuss later our future plans in this space, including expanding our insurance revenues. Moving now to costs on slide 18, total operating expenses in Q4 were 87 million, broadly flat over the previous quarter. OPEX for the year remained below 350 million and we have managed to keep our cost to income ratio flat at 60%. We remain responsive on costs as evidenced by the small staff exit plan we executed in December. Now turning to capital on slide 21, Our CT1 and total capital ratios as of 31st December stood at 15.8 and 20.8 respectively, both from pro forma assets held for sale. During the fourth quarter, we have generated around 50 basis points of organic capital through operating profits and 30 basis points from the reduction in RWAs. These were partially offset by expected loan credit losses and impairments of around 30 basis points. Our CET1 on a fully loaded basis was at 13.7% at December 21, and 14.3% pro forma. The minimum requirement for 2022 for CET1 and total capital is set at 10.08% and 15.01%, respectively, following a 26 basis points add-on on P2R due to ACB's prudential provisioning expectations, and 25 basis points phasing in of the OSII buffer. It's important to note that the P2G reduction more than offset the increase in P2R for the CT1 ratio. The group continues to monitor opportunities for the optimization of its capital position, including AT1 capital. And finally, turning to cost of risk on slide 26, the cost of risk for the year was at 57 basis points compared to 118 basis points in the previous year, reflecting mainly lower COVID-19-related charges and normalization of cost of risk as balance sheet de-risking is largely completed. For the fourth quarter, cost of risk was at 35 basis points of gross loans and included a reversal of loan impairments, mainly driven by improved cash collections and updated financial information. And with that, I'd like to hand back to Banikos to go through the medium-term strategy and targets.

Thank you, Elisa. I will start with our investment highlights on slide 30. The Embank operates in a small, open, and dynamic economy that has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. We are a diversified leading financial technology hub in Cyprus with strong franchise and customer base. Our team has an excellent track record and is fully committed to deliver shareholder value while maintaining best-in-class governance. Our strategic priorities are clear. We are committed on delivering sustainable, profitable growth and shareholder value creation. And as I will come on to, for the first time in many years, we are in a position to outline prospects for the reduction of dividend payments. Moving now to slide 31. We are the leading bank in Cyprus with around three quarters of the population being customers of the bank. We have a leading market position in both loans and debauches with market shares of 39% and 35%, respectively, as of the end of December 2021. We have profitable live and non-live subsidiaries with high market shares. Finally, we are a strong technology hub with well over 300,000 active users of internet and mobile banking. Currently, 90% of transactions are performed through digital channels. We are the 75% majority shareholder in the largest processing company in the country, and soon we will be launching an ecosystem expected to drive the transition to the digital economy, leveraging on our digital capabilities and market footprint. Let's now turn to slide 32. In November 2020, we communicated our strategic vision for the bank setting the path to normalizing the balance sheet and achieving adequate sustainable returns. We are pleased to have made significant progress against our targets, including achieving some of our milestones early. We have reached single decision piece one year ahead of plan and have achieved this with a better capital outcome with 51 of 15.8% being well above our guided minimum threshold. The post-monotory performance has exceeded our expectations, allowing a swifter normalization in cost of risk. We have delivered on our cost target and our cost income ratio, while remaining under pressure in the near term has performed better than expected. We are, as a result, updating our outlook and our mid-term targets on slide 33 to take into account the projects achieved so far, as well as increase confidence in the growth and sustainable profitability of the normalized Bank of Cyprus group. Back in November 2020, we set a path of 7% ROT for the normalized business over the middle term. We are today updating and raising the target to over 10% ROT profitability in 2025, supported by a normalized cost of risk of 40 to 15 basis points, reflecting a less than 3% NP ratio and improved efficiency of 50-55%, underpinned by a capital ratio between 13.5% and 14.5%. It is important to note that 2022 is expected to still be a year of transition when we will continue to put in place the building blocks of our future growth. We expect solid mid-single digit profitability to be already visible in 2023, when we expect to be in a strong shape in terms of capital, asset quality, and profitability for management to recommend the payment of dividends, of course, subject to regulatory approval. This will be a significant milestone in the recovery of the bank, and will recognize the importance to our shareholders of dividend payments. Moving now to slide 34. Our first strategy pillars remain unchanged. Firstly, enhancing revenues in a more efficient way. Secondly, striving towards a linear operating model via further improving efficiency. Also, at the same time, funding digitization and investing in the business. Thirdly, normalizing cost of risk and reduce other impairments as the risk is largely complete. And finally, embedding ESG in our culture to drive a sustainable future. Our transformation plan presented on slide 35 will support the delivery on these strategic pillars with leveraging on our country-wide customer database. The plan will allow us to tailor our operating model in line with the needs and characteristics of our customers and to revamp our internal operation and streamline our processes. Over the near term, we are targeting 65% of wholesale customers to have a positive economic value added We are aiming for over 30% of the sales to be through digital channels and over 70% of deposits to migrate to self-service channels. At the same time, we are targeting over 40% of decisions for consumer lending to be fully automated. All the above will allow us to reduce by over 30% the administrative activities in the branches. Slide 36 presents a way we see the build-up to a greater than 10% return on tangible equity for 2025, starting from the current level of 1.8. Firstly, we expect NII to gradually recover and to add 1% to ROT for 2025, as loan expansion and market stabilization is expected to more than offset the forgotten NII from de-risking. Secondly, we expect to improve significantly our non-net interest income driven mainly by fees and commissions that are expected to grow by 4% per annum, building on the strong performance in 2021. We are looking to also improve the income from our insurance operations, leveraging the bank's strong market share. At the same time, we are also at an advanced stage in the development of a digital platform that will allow us to serve our customers beyond banking and create new revenue streams. These three initiatives are expected to add between 1.5% and 2% to ROT of 2025. Thirdly, we are revamping our operating model, driven by our transformation plan and digital focus. As you have seen, for 2021, we have demonstrated our ability to manage costs. We are today committing to equipping total operating expenses below $350 million in 2025 despite inflationary pressures, which at the same time funding digitization and investment in business. We expect to effectively eliminate the structural cost as the risking is now largely complete. Overall, this building block is expected to add between 2.5% and 3% to the 2025 ROT. Lastly, as balance sheet risk is now largely complete, this will allow us to further normalize our cost of risk and reduce the other impairments, adding between 2.5% and 3% to the ROT for 2025. Starting with NII growth on slide 37 and 38. Over the middle term, high-quality lending is expected to reach $9 billion. We have already seen a sharp recovery in volumes as the economy recovers from COVID, and we are confident that we can achieve this given the economy is expected to continue to grow on an average by over 3% over the period. The significant deleveraging of the Cyprus economy over the past seven years is coming to an end. The group aims to benefit from its strong market position and help deploy the Cyprus Recovery and Resilience Fund as well as to grow shipping and international corporate lending with prudency and explore market opportunities in performing portfolio trades in Cyprus. At the same time, we aim to support our customers in the transition to a sustainable future through, for example, the provision of environmentally friendly products. As a result, our performing book is expected to grow by a sharp acceleration in the pace of the past few years. The growth of net interest income over the middle term is further supported by massive stabilization. As shown on slide 38, our plan is based on conservative interest rate assumptions, and we believe that the group is well positioned for faster rising rates. We also use conservative assumptions for fixed-income investment, and we factor in increased funding costs from further MLE issuance, and the fact that the favorable TL-TRO borrowing terms will not be extended post-June 2022. As a result of the huge transaction in 2021 and the ending of TL-TRO favorable terms, we expect ineditary income to be under pressure in the near term before more closely matching volume trends. Heading now to slide 39. Building on the strong performance in 2021, over the middle term, NEDFIA and Commissioned Income from Banking Activities is expected to increase by 4% per annum, supported by price adjustments and increased activity as the economy recovers. We will amend the universe of deposits on which we charge liquidity fees, and we will recycle deposits to products with higher returns, mainly through our wealth services. Additionally, we will also aim to increase the average product hosting through cross-selling to those parts of our customer base that remain under-penetrated via operational model redesign and client segmentation in order to cater for different customer groups. Moving now to our issuer business on slide 40 and 41. One of the important sources of increased revenues will come from our issuer business as they have consistently delivered sustainable, healthy profitability. Our life insurance business has a leading market share in Cyprus, whilst our general insurance business is a key player in a highly concentrated market. We believe both life and non-life insurance businesses can deliver more by further leveraging of the bank's strong market share. The results of the insurance business for the year are promising. Overall, the net insurance income in 2021 increased by 9% year-on-year to $61 million, contributing to over 20% of our non-interest income. Moving now specifically to slide 40, in the life insurance business, further growth will be driven through the pursuit of new market segments with higher market potential, such as business insurance or income protection. exploring opportunities in the occupational pension market and the launch of new products and investment funds. At the same time, EuroLife is expected to widen its target market leveraging on its revamped back-insurance model. Internally, EuroLife aims to strengthen its agency force organically and improve productivity through digitalization campaigns. Leveraging on the group's digital capabilities, the customer experience is expected to be upgraded by enhanced self-service capabilities, such as the MyEuroLife portal. Overall, we expect our regular premium income to increase by 35% over the next four years. Moving now to slide 41, in the general insurance business, Further growth is expected through widening the target market, leveraging on our run-back assurance model, exploding synergies with the life insurance agency force, and focusing on profitable business segments such as fire and liability. General insurance also aims to strengthen its penetration in the profitable motor sector. Centralization and automation of the claims handling process, as well as further digital growth, will be enabled by further digitization. Overall, we expect our market share to rise and our gross return premiums to increase by more than 50% over the next four years. Let's now turn to slides 42 to 43. As I mentioned earlier, we expect to soon launch our digital economy platform. Bank of Cyprus has been the trusted provider of financial services to the economy with a market share of more than 50% in most customer segments and with the largest active digital user base on the island of more than 335,000 users. At the same time, compared to many other EU countries, business in Cyprus are less automated and digitized. This is now changing and presents an exciting opportunity both for the country and for the bank. With the launch of Genius, we aim to provide solutions that address this digitalization gap between organizations and link our large digital user base to lifestyle service and product providers. Genius will allow us to enhance our existing customer base engagement, attract new customers, optimize the cost of our own processes, create new revenue sources and channels, and position the bank next to the customer at the point and time of need. The size of the market, the trusted provider view of the bank, the large digital base, the large market share and the clear and validated need of digital economy end-to-end services linked to financial services render this initiative a necessity and define its path to success. While there are clearly Tremendous potential in the long term. Within our mid-term plan, we assume only minor contribution to revenues, while digital platform cost investments will be measured, focused, and included within our cost guidance. Moving now to slide 44, controlling cost has become a key feature of how we have managed the bank over the recent past and we will continue to strive for a linear operating model absorbing inflationary pressures and investments in the business by cost saves from further staff and footprint optimization. The transformation plans in progress will act as an enabler to modern banking by digitally transforming customer service internal operations and automating and centralizing back-office activities. In addition, the structure expenses are expected to reduce to equal digits as balance sheet risk is largely complete. Our commitment is to ensure our costs are well below the current level in 2023 and remain below $350 million in 2025. Our cost-to-income ratio will decline to the early 50s by 2025, but near-term will remain under pressure given the revenue trends noted earlier. In addition, much of the higher IT and digitalization investment will impact the earlier years of the plan. Moving now to the risk key on slide 45. Our track record here has been excellent, achieving 75% NP reduction in 2021, and reducing NP ratio to 7.5%. We have a clear path to reduce our NP ratio to 5% by the end of 2022, and to less than 3% by 2025, which at the same time contain NP inflows post the pandemic. Our cost of risk is expected to normalize towards 40 to 50 basic points in the mid-term, and other impairments will be reduced as balance sheet de-risking is largely complete. This is lower than our previous expectations, as now we have more visibility on the risk in our books. Moving now to slide 46, maintaining a strong capital base has been a key underpinning of the bank these past few years, and that remains a non-negotiable for the bank going forward. We are pleased that our capital position remained robust in 2021 and was further strengthened by 120 points during the year. Over the period of our plan, we expect to maintain a CTO ratio between 13.5 and 14.5 percent. ROT targets will allow us to organically generate capital that going forward we expect to use to organically grow our loan book, invest in our business, and absorb any regulatory impacts and runoff optimization costs. And importantly, this strong capital position will pave the way forward from dividend distribution to resume from 2023 onwards, subject of course to regulatory approval. We recognize how important these are for our shareholders and myself and my management team are determined to reward our owners for the faith they have shown in us all these years. Moving now to slide 47. Of course, delivering for our shareholders is important, but it's only one part of our responsibility to a wider group of stakeholders. We are working to build a forward-looking organization with a clear strategy supported by effective corporate governance aligned with ESG priorities, setting the foundations to enhance our organization's resilience. More information is provided on slide 48. Moving to a sustainable economy is a challenge of our time. As part of our vision to be the leading financial hub in Cyprus, we are determined to lead the transition of Cyprus to a sustainable future. In 2021, we formulated the Bank's first ESG strategy, whereby in addition to maintaining our leading role in the social and governance pillars, there will be a shift of focus to increasing the Bank's positive impact on the environment by transforming not only our operations, but also of our client chain. The Bank has committed to the following ESG primary ESG targets, which reflect the pivotal role of ESG in the bank strategy. Become carbon neutral by 2030. Become net zero by 2050. Steadily increase green asset ratio. Steadily increase green market ratio. And at least 30% women in groups management bodies. To conclude, this is a new phase for Baro Cyprus. I'm encouraged at how we have delivered on the target we made since we first set them out in November 2020, and we are well positioned to deliver our new upgraded targets over the middle term. This concludes our presentation and will now open the floor for your questions. Thank you very much.

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by 1 on the telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from a question queue, then you may press star and 2. Please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star and 1 at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question comes from a line of Scorcher Floriani journals with Axia Ventures. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi guys, good afternoon and congratulations on the progress you achieved in 2021. My first question is on the capital returns. I'm just wondering if you could clarify more or less how the process now until you get the approval for the dividends will work. Also, when you talk about distribution of dividends from 2023 onwards, I suspect this is based on 2022 earnings, right? And then also I was wondering if that's the case, when is the initial idea that you'll be able to announce it? Is it like together with full year 2021 results? Then still on the topic, when I look at your capital guidance on the new targets, Does this already include the distribution of dividends? And if yes, can you share more or less how many base points of that is the 2022 up until 2024 or 5 delta in your capital ratio? And then secondly, it's on the renew impairments. I'm just wondering if you can clarify more or less what is the

those assets those liquid assets that you take took the impairments on and also what is the expectation going forward for um for real estate impairments thank you okay thank you jonas i will uh i will take the question on the capital return i will start by saying that and let me be clear to that whatever organized and dividend are very important to our shareholders and were determined to resume dividends as soon as possible. Currently, you know that we have a ban on paying dividends, so clearly this has to be removed before the board can consider any payment. As we state, we believe that we can be in good shape in 2023 results with sustainable business model without one-offs and capital buffers to consider dividend distribution or other type of capital shareholder return. So this is something that is important to start the shareholder return. We expect this to gradually build up, and the calculation of ROT of more than 10% is surely calculated on a CTR more than what you see in the guidance. I know, Elisa, you want to add more on the dividend payment and take the question on the revenue paramount?

Yes. So on capital, on what we have included in capital, which was the last part of the question, we have included assumptions on dividend. We are assuming a built-up, a gradual built-up of dividend payout ratios, which we believe is a conservative assumption given that it's been almost a decade or more than a decade since we last paid dividend. So the actual road case is on the back of capital that's actually slightly higher or higher than the band indicated. Okay, on the REMU impairment point is related to, I mean the largest part in Q4 related to a specific large property that we have on the books, which was also subject to a capital deduction from the regulatory inspection a couple of years back. And it's a function of the valuation. It's a very idiosyncratic valuation issue relating to that piece of property, and it's not pervasive in the book. So therefore, just to your question on the future, we don't expect further material impairments on the revenue stock. In fact, we are selling, as you know, above book value and above, and close to OMV, and there are statistics in the front of the deck on that.

Thank you.

The next question comes from a line of Rathod Priya with KBW. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you for taking my question. Just two from me. So one is in relation to rates. So I was wondering if you could give more colour on your sensitivity from Euroball moving back into the positive territory. So more specifically, what impact would that have on loan repricing and when would you start to see remuneration of deposits? Secondly, with regards to TLTRO, what is your current contribution and what timeline do you expect for TLTRO to drop out? Thank you.

Elisa?

Okay, so on the rates, you will see them on page 38, actually, of the deck in the results, actually in the guidance part. So just to explain this graph or this slide, on the top right-hand graph, you will see the rate of assumptions that we had in our financial plan and the guidance. These, as you will know from current experience, are actually very conservative, both on how steep the curve is on the Uribor and when it crosses zero. In the financial plan, it's assumed to cross zero sometime in 2025. In reality, the market believes that this will happen a lot earlier, maybe as early as 12 months away from now. So that's what we've assumed in the plan. On the table in the bottom, we've set out the sensitivity of a 50 basis points shift on the P&L if, for example, the rate increases happen earlier or happen in a steeper way than what we've predicted. So that's the summary of that.

On the TLTRO, Alicia?

On the TLTRO, okay, sorry, the positive carry of the TLTRO will continue until Q2 of this year, so there are two more quarters. I remind you, it's an almost $4 million per quarter positive NII for us. Whether we repay it at that point or not is still under discussion. It depends on whether we can have a positive carry or not from the TLTRO, the 3 billion we have. But it will definitely not be the 50 basis points benefit we currently have, which is locked and almost automatic in that it's not relating to market rates.

Ms. Rathod, are you done with your questions?

Yes, that's it for me. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from a line of David Daniel with Autonomous. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for the call and taking my questions. Just a couple from me. The first one is just on capital. I'm just interested if you could let us know any capital headwinds heading into next year. So to hit the MP target of 5%, if there's any more kind of capital hits that go alongside the disposals that are planned. And then just on capital as well, I can see the comment on 81. Would you consider an 81 this year as part of the kind of capital equation? Good to get your thoughts on that. And then just secondly, more broadly on your targets, the lending targets look quite aggressive. And I'm just interested in the phasing of kind of the KGAR that you're forecasting in net performing loans. So I can see the 6% KGAR. Should we think about that as kind of linear or is it likely to be more back-ended or back-loaded? And are you seeing any trends in Q4 that would kind of point to anything significant in 2022 or 2023? Thanks.

Okay. Thank you, David. I will start with a couple of categories coming from the effort to reduce MPs to 5%. I don't think that there will be any negative impact on the capital from the further end period. Actually, we have proved this through organic reduction and through the trades. I remind you that the latest trade of Helix 3 was significantly capital accretive. On the AT1 question, we have, as you know, our AT1, I think, expires end of 2023, so we're looking all the options, but nothing turned out at this point of time. As well as lending target volume, I would start by saying that there has been a significant, and I will explain how we came to this target. It's coming both from gross new lending and including also the repayments. So first, I have to explain that there has been significant leverage of the Cyprus economy all these years. I remind you that in 2013, we were 62 billion of loans. Now we are roughly at 32 billion. So we expect this to gradually, that growing, not growing dramatically, it can grow from 32, maybe go to 33, 34. Curing lending, generated in the economy is expected also to grow modestly in line with the GDP growth, including also the extra push coming from the RRF, financing the transition to digitization, and all that goes with the RRF. So Bag of Cyprus is assumed to maintain its market share in the pure new land industry created in the market. We did it in the past. We believe that we can do it in the future and we believe it even stronger now because the management focus will be shift towards value creation, revenue rather than the risk. So over and above the leading market position in the country, we are carefully looking outside for an additional one billion of new lending. We have already created the setup, the teams, And during the pandemic, we are now starting to see the results. So over and above, as we mentioned there, we will consider any other opportunities from re-performing trades in Cyprus in the years to come. So this is the growth new lending. On the net new lending, you have to take into consideration the repayment as well. So we expect still to have significant portion of new lending to be repaid. At absolute numbers, it will be probably similar to the previous years, but we are encouraged that seeing that the average ten of our loans are gradually increasing, so we have 12.2 years in 2019, now it's almost 13, 12.8, and over and the mix of restructured and negotiated loans, which most of them have this one of lapse and repayment, are actually reducing in our portfolio. So all in all, we are optimistic on this. And in terms of linear, I would say that it may be a little back-ended, but I will describe that the back-end is not It's not dramatically higher than what you're going to expect to see in the earlier years.

Thanks a lot.

As a reminder, if you would like to register for a question, please press star and 1 on your telephone. The next question comes from the line of Boulogoulis Alexandros with Wooden Co. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi. A quick question on my end regarding this interest rate sensitivity that you have on slide 38. The upward scenario is a 50 pips parallel shift and the downward is a 50 pips reduction, I assume. And this is... The 30, 40 million that you have there is on net profitability or on NII or pre-tax, if you could clarify that. And a second quick question regarding REMU, maybe a bit of clarification on what would you expect REMU portfolio to be in 2025 on your business plan. Thank you.

Okay, I will start with Renew and then Elisa will provide more clarifications on the interest rates of CDBD. As we said, the 2021 Renew stock had been reduced to 1.2 billion from almost 1.5 billion in 2020, a reduction by 70%. We expect this stock to materially reduce in the next two, three years, and of course, significantly lower in 2025 because, as you know, REO still holds a lot of capital, idle capital, and would like to convert this idle capital into income-generating asset and, of course, utilizing this capital for this purpose. Elisa, if you want to provide clarifications on the interest derivatives.

Okay, so thanks, Alex. The shock is indeed 50 basis points on Euro and 60 on the USD. There is a note below the table, but obviously most of our loan book is Euro-denominated. The numbers here are actually revenue numbers, so they include both the NII impact as well as assumptions on the reduction of the liquidity fee, which I remind you goes through the fee and commission line. and remains discretionary on whether and when we do it, but here it's mathematically the net impact, the net delta of the two numbers, NII and fees.

On the revenue, okay, clear.

On the revenue, yeah, pre-tax, effectively.

Yes, thank you.

The one point just to add is that we do have a portion of the book where the URIBOR is flowed to zero. And here the impact of the 50 basis points actually doesn't capture the upside if the Uribor rates do move to positive territory all the way. So there's actually an even bigger benefit if we were to shock the book by 100 basis points, for example, or anything more than 50. But we wanted to be conservative in what we are showing here as a shock. and we'll be updating you as we follow, as the market evolves.

So in a scenario of 100 BIPs, it is not 40. For example, it will not be 80. It could be more than 80.

Yes, yes, yes.

You also have interest rates.

Yes, so it's linear up to the 50 basis points, but 10, 20, 30 is proportional. Impact-wise, when it goes above 50, it's not proportional. It's more than that.

Thank you.

Once again, to register for a question, please press star and 1 on your telephone. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolaou for any closing comments. Thank you.

Okay, thank you all for your time. As always, myself and the team will be available for any one-to-one calls, meetings, to clarify, answer any questions and explain in more detail our plans, including our new initiatives and, of course, our dividend ambitions. Thank you very much. Have a nice day.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling and have a pleasant evening.