Capricorn Energy PLC

Good morning and welcome to the Capricorn Energy Half Year Results presentation. I'll now hand over to Randy Neely, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Good morning and thank you for attending our mid-year 2025 results call. I am joined today by Eddie Oak, our CFO, who will walk through the financial and operations highlights, as well as Jeff Probert, our COO, who will provide a review of ongoing operations and provide more detail on the progress made to improve our production sharing contracts in Egypt. In addition, Nathan Piper, Director of Commercials, is also available for the Q&A session. Since myself, the new management team, Jeff, Eddie, Nathan, and our entire board joined the company beginning in 2023, we've made it very clear what our goals were. We intended to improve upon the base business in Egypt, reduce overhead and scale down, or eliminate all non-viable activities of the company. To do that, we set out with our JV partner in Egypt, Chiron, to negotiate a new consolidated production sharing contract for the eight 50-50 jointly held contracts. That has been a major undertaking, and we announced earlier this year that we had achieved a major milestone with the government approval of those terms. Jeff will provide more detail on this process and outcome shortly. For those of you that perhaps have not been paying attention to our journey over the past two years, I remind you that we have exited all non-core activities and we reduced our G&A burden by approximately 80%, including our staffing contingent, effectively right-sized the organization. As well, the company returned over $600 million to investors through dividends and share buybacks. Operationally, we have worked very hard to achieve technical alignment with our partner in Egypt, and we are very pleased with how that has progressed. Today, I can confidently state that Capricorn and Chiron are working synergistically to improve the technical and financial results of the joint venture. When this team, Capricorn 2.0, joined, we all recognized that the company needed to instill financial discipline, which included a measured approach to funding investments in Egypt, effectively a self-funding model. Although with the improved fiscal terms and payment schedules, this approach may not appear as relevant today as it was two years ago, we do not intend to deviate from this mindset. With our initial goals principally achieved, we are turning our attention to increasing value for our shareholders. Our intent is to do that through three principal activities. First, realizing on the improvement of the base business in Egypt, improvements to fiscal terms and lengthening of contract life will open up significantly new resource for the joint venture to pursue and exploit. Effectively, the amended contractual terms will allow the joint venture to pursue a very large existing resource base to add both reserves and production. Second, we, led by Nathan, our director of commercial, will continue to search for opportunities in the UK North Sea to realize on our historic position there. We have a strict set of criteria we measure every North Sea opportunity against. And although we have been deep into several processes, we have been unable to successfully conclude any of them. That's been either due to being outbid or the seller just effectively electing to retain the asset. And the third activity we'll look to add value is looking for synergistic asset deals or business to add to the portfolio. Ultimately, all of these will lead the company to return in value to the shareholders. Building business of scale and longevity. Over the past two years, the new board, myself, and the rest of the team have made a major effort to transform the culture, priorities, and focus of Capricorn. This wheel is meant to capture very simply how we are approaching this. We focus on the small details. We finance the business and any new ventures conservatively. We approach every project with technical rigor and apply strict capital discipline and demand the same of our partners. We approach the business strictly through a self-funding business model and new ventures initiated will require the application of a prudent approach to risk management. I'll let Jeff take the next slide.

Thanks, Randy, and good morning. You can see here on the graphic that we're on the last step of our journey to completing the consolidation of our eight 50-50 concession agreements into a single extended and improved agreement. Improvements in concession longevity and fiscal terms are a catalyst to increase Capricorn's reserves and production, with value and cash flow enhanced by increased investment, self-funded from Egypt. The EGPC This increased and, more importantly, sustained investment delivers greater production over the long term for Egypt and has the potential to be a true win-win for all stakeholders. We continue to expect customary ratification in the near future, commencing investment consistent with the new terms in the second half of 2025 and expecting new terms and commitments to apply to that investment. Back to you, Randy.

Thanks, Geoff. And now with many of our primary objectives having been achieved, our primary focus for myself and as well as Nathan is to get investors to recognize this value improvement. On the back of an envelope, you can see that we have a base business in Egypt that fully supports our market value. Note that our debt in Egypt has been being paid down materially over this year and will continue to be paid down over the coming year. On top of that, we have the cash that resides in the parent company, a value improvement that will be realized upon ratification of our Egyptian-based business, and a value that can be realized by future investment in the UK North Sea. All of these combined leave us with a near-term potential of doubling our share value. And that's before we expand our operations either in Egypt or elsewhere. I'll now turn the presentation over to Eddie Oak, our CFO, to provide a review of the financial and operating highlights.

Thanks Randy and good morning all. Production through the first half was in line with projections and we continue to guide towards the midpoint of our published range of 17 to 21,000 BOE per day. Our focus on higher margin drilling continues to perform as liquids remain slightly above forecast at 43% of production. OpEx is continuing to trend upwards as the currency devaluation impact from last year works its way through our cost structure. This is being exacerbated by declining production against a large fixed cost base, but we continue to work with the operator to ensure that costs are being controlled to the greatest extent possible. We've slowly reduced our capital guidance as scheduling is going to push back some current year activity into the following year, but we remain on track to deliver the bulk of our development drilling in the second half. Next slide, please. As can be seen from our cash waterfall, the contingent consideration collected in the half has offset the slow pace of collections from EGPC. In that second half to date, collections have improved and we're anticipating the collection of at least $90 million in the second half, which will help offset scheduled repayments of our outstanding debt. Up next, Jeff is going to take you through an operational overview of the remainder of the year.

Thanks, Eddie. I'm going to very briefly highlight our first half 2025 Egypt operational focus, give a snapshot of where we expect to invest in 26, and look at how reserves and resources are trending, particularly in the context of the new agreement. This map shows our focus on liquids development and production, particularly in the bed, Abu Ashji Reservoir area. And that was all in the first half of 2025. While new agreement has been finalised, we also drilled three wells to fulfil our legacy commitments on the three pure exploration concessions acquired as part of the Egypt acquisition in 2021. Those exploration commitments are now satisfied with a minor underspend of 750,000 on NUM. Our joint venture with Chiron, the operator, has elected to further evaluate the commerciality of two of these wells and we expect those results later this month. You can also see here that the hatched areas indicate concessions that we expect to form the new consolidation agreement. And if you look closely, the prime contiguous lands added for further development and exploration on trend. Next slide. This slide just illustrates our expected four-rig development drilling schedule, four rigs to reflect the improved agreement terms, encouraging us to invest in a longer list of economic wells. Alongside optimization of the development well sequence, We continue to work with our JV partner, Chiron, to also prioritise non-rig production generation, reinstating shutting wells, identifying additional perforation opportunities on bypass pay. Next slide. This last slide on reserves encapsulates the rationale behind Capricorn negotiating an extended and improved integrated concession agreement on our 50-50 concessions. We expect our ability to replace reserves and extend their life to be materially improved by the extended concession periods and improved concession economic terms. We also expect the concession improvement would impact our risk appetite to chase near-field exploration potential on our newly extended lands and our existing lands and to develop and mature our portfolio of resources. Capricorn's been working the opportunity hopper on the 50-50 new concession agreement. acreage, not just near-term development options, but also contingent and prospective resources. We expect this work will help to underpin future reserve and resource bookings and may also direct and prioritise productive drilling activity. You can see here that internally we've identified a working interest around 350 million barrels of an unrisked best estimate contingent resources to mature. Near-term license extensions resulting from an approved integrated concession potentially support the early conversion of up to a working interest, nearly 20 million barrels all equivalent to reserves, with further reclassifications anticipated, all underpinned by five-year investment plans. Once approved, we expect to rapidly move to drill wells to exploit those reserves additions. Thanks for your time and attention. Now I'm passing over to Randy to wrap up.

Thanks, Geoff. I trust that those of you that have been following the Capricorn story since this team took over will agree that we have had a strong record of delivering on company objectives. To summarize, we set out to improve the Egyptian business by making it both long-term sustainable and a platform for growth. We are very near the consummation of that objective with ratification occurring in the near future. The new PSC will provide a catalyst for increases in reserves for investment and value improvements. Additionally, we are seeing and hearing reasons to be optimistic about the future reduction of our outstanding receivables and a more stable, consistent payment plan from EGPC. And while we have been slower than we hoped to be to deliver or realize an embedded value for us to reinvest in the UK North Sea, we remain steadfast in our goal to achieve this objective. Beyond our current operations in Egypt, and our near-term goal of expansion in the UK North Sea, we are actively looking for synergistic opportunities in the areas of our capabilities and credibility that we have in Capricorn and our team. Well, that's it for our formal presentation. Thank you very much for dialing in. And we'll now take questions from analysts online.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad We'll pause for a brief moment. Thank you. We'll now take our first question from James Hosey of Shaw Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. I've got a couple of questions for you. Just firstly, on the improved trade receivables position and the payment plan, you've already received $37 million since the mid-year, and the release mentions today a $50 million payment being due in October. Just wondering if it's reasonable to think that Capricorn is on track to collect more in H2 than the minimum of $90 million you refer to. And then the second question is just wondering about the updated competent person's report you plan to publish once the new concession term is ratified. Should we expect that to include revised 2P production and CapEx profiles, or are you simply just going to apply the assumptions you used in July CPR to the new concession terms?

I'll take the AR question. Yeah, you're right. We've received 37 million to date and we're expecting a $50 million bullet here in the near term. We're remaining conservative about our collections assumptions, but yes, if all goes according to plan, we should be collecting in excess of that with a material reduction in our receivables possible by the end of the year.

And Jeffrey, I'll pick up the other question, James, on CPR revision. When we issue that CPR, yes, it'll be to mid-year as things currently stand. It'll include revised capex profiles, deductions for production, so it'll be a full update. Okay, that's great. Thanks, Cheryl.

Thank you. And we'll now move on to our next question from Chris Leighton of Stifel. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, gents. Thank you very much indeed for the presentation this morning. A question for me also on working capital, but trying to look forward a bit further. What provisions in the licence renegotiation have there been for working capital recovery, because my concern when you start drilling and exploiting some of that upside resource potential is you've got to start drilling, putting capex in the ground first, then your production goes up, then you get the cash flow. Well, then you actually sell the oil. Then at some point in the future, you get the cash flow. So there could be quite a significant working capital burn, at least to start with. unless Egypt are prompt in paying those receivables back, because with the higher capex as well as the higher opex, then your receivables amounts going to start building quite quickly unless you get those regular repayments. Could you talk about how you've tried to mitigate those risks in the license renegotiation? And secondly, what that means for potential timing of dividend payouts, because I still see your priorities as being first. First, you've got to keep investing in the drilling. Secondly, you've got to pay down the debt remaining in Egypt and then possibly shareholders could start to get some more cash back. So I'm interested in that implication for your future dividend payments.

Thanks. Hi, Chris. I'll take that. Yeah, so we've got obviously a material investment fund sort of obligation opportunity in Egypt as the result of the modernized concession agreement and one that we're happy to deliver on given the economic return that's represented by that investment. Just keep in mind, we're still producing 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Egypt with the corresponding build in cost pools profit oil, profit gas, as well as our existing receivables position. And as you folks have seen, historically, we're managing the business quite carefully with respect to invested dollars against realized dollars out. And so that philosophy is not going to change going forward. Part of the overriding imperative on this deal has to be that our shareholders realize a return. Now, based off of historical decisions, historical investments, we've got a fairly weighty debt burden hanging over this asset base, but we plan on honoring those debt commitments with repayments of that debt coming up over the next couple of years. as well as delivering on these capital investments. And to your point, yeah, after that, and as always, our overriding concern is going to be on shareholder value and how do we deliver that value in the asset base to the shareholders over time.

Jeff here, I may just add one thing, that is the The background to the negotiations is to create a, let's say, a more investable set of concession agreements in one agreement. And that creates relevance. I mean, the whole purpose was not just to create value for the shareholders, also to get paid. By improving the terms, we have an investable set of concessions, whereas before, frankly, it was a pretty weak place to be. EGPC pays those who have the capacity to invest, and by that I mean places they can invest economically. So it's a bit of a symbiotic outcome for both. We invest, we create production, we get paid so that we can invest and, indeed, generate returns. They do accept that part of it. In terms of the overall commitments we've had to make in terms of investment, The CRIMs are, if you look at our historical investment profile in Egypt and the working interest basis, they're quite modest. It's spread over a number of years. If there happens to be a short-term problem around payments for a while, we can just dial back investments. While that happens, then dial those investments back up again in the future. So we're pretty confident that this structure under the new concession agreement will generate the right opportunities for us to invest and be paid at the same time.

Okay, just to be clear, the revised concession agreement doesn't include a contractual basis for this is how receivables will be paid and this is a time period.

Sorry, Eddie, I'll take it. Yeah, so Chris, that's in there already. Those terms are in the existing contracts. Right, okay, fine. Yeah. What the situation is is Egypt sometimes struggles to keep up payments just because of their own fiscal issues and where they're prioritized. But we're seeing... We're seeing that mindset change. And that's because, you know, Egypt is short energy and they've struggled to sort of, you know, keep the production moving in the right direction given the local demands. And so that's what we're seeing change over the past, you know, 18, 24 months is they're moving into more reprioritizing IOC payments in order to – at least maintain production rather than seeing it slip off or go to other jurisdictions.

Okay, thanks for any helpful detail. Thank you very much indeed.

Thank you. We have no further questions in the queue. I'll now hand over for webcast questions.

Thank you. So we've got a few questions from Charlie Sharp at Canaccord. First question, what liquids proportion of total production would you expect to be able to achieve over the next six to 18 months?

Sorry, Tilly, I didn't quite hear that.

What liquids portion of total production would you expect to be able to achieve over the next six to 18 months?

I don't anticipate a significant change in the overall proportion that we would The core was around 42-43% liquids in the last half and we anticipate that continuing going forward. It might nudge up a little bit but it's not going to increase significantly in the next six months.

Thank you. Next question from Charlie. What sort of test results on the two exploration wells would support commerciality and what would the next operational steps be?

So Obviously, the rate and sustainability, so the pressure drop, if there is any in the reservoir during the testing phase, there are, as is often the case in these western desert reservoirs or, say, wells, there are multiple potential pay zones. We have to look at productivity, we have to look at sustainability, and we have to look at the distance to the nearest infrastructure. These wells are reasonably close to nearby infrastructure, but that doesn't make them a slam dunk. So yeah, that's pretty much how we look at the wells. In terms of the next steps, we take the data, we will evaluate it, and with our partner, the operator, Chiron, we'll make a proposal if we see economic value to do so. to complete and hook up those wells into nearby production facilities.

Great, thank you. And final question. Can you provide some guidance on expected year-end 2025 receivables?

Sure. It's in the release. If you take a look at what our historic production is and the forecast going forward against what our projected collections are, you should be able to back into that number pretty quickly. And like I said, it's going to be a conservative estimate for the year end, but that's what we're going towards.

Great, thank you. No other questions from webcast, so I'll hand over to you for any closing remarks.

Thanks, Tilly. I just want to say thanks, everyone, for dialing in or listening in afterwards. And we look forward to speaking to many of you live over the coming weeks. Have a great day.