11/3/2021

speaker
Tristan
Head of Investor Relations

So hopefully everybody's been able to join. And thank you very much. And we're excited about being able to announce our Q3. It's been a very interesting quarter for the sector. And so as usual, we'll be recording the session and putting it up on the website. We'll go through a presentation and then open up for questions and answers at the end. And so without further ado, Neil, do you want to? Indeed. Caroline, do you want to go through to the first slide?

speaker
Neil
Chief Executive Officer

Right. So, yeah, we're very pleased with these numbers, premiums on track. We talked a lot about the higher quota share weighting and what that really did was that gave us the foundation and it gave us the diversification which leads to the losses which are fairly modest by comparison to some market announcements. What I do think is happening is that the market, these losses are serious. They will definitely affect the reinsurance market. So I'm optimistic about future rates. I don't expect any surprises on the downside. And this renewal season is going to be absolutely fascinating. The investment strategy, we've just done what we said. Elaine will take you through that. We've done a lot of work in the last 12 months. You know, the operating platform, the IT, getting these offices I'm sitting in Bermuda, There's been a fantastic amount of work done by the team. So we're very pleased with the operating platform. And then we finally just reiterate that we did what we said we would do and we have paid a dividend. So with that, I'll pass over to Trevor. Okay.

speaker
Trevor
Head of Underwriting

Morning all. Yeah, so in terms of performance to date around the business actually written, ultimate premiums, 387. The team has worked very hard through the quarter. We still get a really good flow of business. Even though it's a relatively quiet time in the industry, that's been key to our success. Year to date, we're probably looking at the best part of a thousand risks that we've seen through the doors of Conduit. So that has enabled us to, I think, continue to, if you like, sift and reselect as we've gone through. So it's been a great performance from the team, good pipeline still in place and through the remaining two and a half months of the year we will be approaching pretty much close to our final plan number. Sort of the business we've spoken before, having the predominance of Kodo Share versus Excel, two reasons for that. One was effectively us deploying our capital into able positive rate space. We took that decision very early with some of the classes that a better place to be sitting rather than in what we viewed as barely adequate or mildly adequate excess of loss. So in doing that, we think we've positioned the business to get maximum benefit from ground up rate. But also, it's enabled us to, if you like, balance out and diversify the portfolio. And I use the language, we knock some of the volatility out of some of those classes by compressing some of the limits in the credit share space. And that's paid some dividends, as I'll explain in a moment on the cap results. So in the business, property had a good quarter. There's been opportunities that we've seen there. So that's moved ahead of plan. Casualty is broadly on as essentially the total mix. And specialty, I have commented before in previous meetings and sessions that we've had, specialty has just lagged more generally in the market. It's a broader mix, some tougher classes, and I think post-COVID and coming into this year, a number of those classes have still been pretty tough to underwrite. The team's done well to pick their way through it, but that has, if you like, suffered in terms of our GWP versus our plan number. On the geographic split, just a word on this. This is based around domicile of seed. And so we fundamentally have more than 1.9% in total written European business, but it sits within that worldwide component of 33. So I think going forward, we will probably have to provide a bit more clarity around geographic split of the risk rather than just pure domicile. But in the main, it is showing that the business that we've seen with clients out of North America have generally been more favourable. We've matched with those contract structures and treaty terms more often frequently have in Europe and in the Far East, although we've got actually a reasonable presence in areas like Japan where the team made good abodes earlier on in the year in the April renewals. hit rate of 23%. We've referred to that before. That's a fairly steady state number through the last couple of quarters. And as I've said, you know, we've seen getting on our year to date, probably best part of a thousand risks and 200, just over 200 contracts bound through Q3. and final word at the end around some of the classes such as cyber it's worth just reiterating yes we watch the class of cyber and some of these other niche classes in the case of cyber it's still got a way to go we think in terms of policy wordings and the format in which we can write that business and get some sort of control around the ultimate systemic but prices are moving and we watch it almost sort of quarter to quarter Just moving on, next slide. Market loss events. Obviously, you've seen the R&S. Our numbers that we've got on the two peak events of Europe, floods and Ida, we think validates our approach. We've always set out to... participate in the market generally, but keep those peak zones and peak perils within a reasonable boundary. So I think for us, being able to produce a net loss at just under 3% of capital I think that validates that approach. European floods as a loss, $12.8 million, net of reinsurance and recoveries. During the quarter, it moved a fair bit in the industry. I think when we look back, probably the start of the quarter, It was figures of seven, eight, nine were being quoted. It's now nine to 12. So our loss to a degree has grown with that to this 12.8 number during the course of the quarter. Really, as clients have done their own data collection, data analysis, picked up better intel and insights into where the loss has come from and passed that through to us. Hurricane Ida, it's actually a pretty complex loss, you know, obviously, you're running from Louisiana or through the States and ending up in the northeast, you know, brought in commercial, residential, auto in some of the programs which we don't participate on, and then also specific flood coverage. with the NFIP up in the Northeast. So complex loss, you know, our approach to it, we have very specific clients that operate in specific regions and we know what we have from them. And that's the way in which, you know, we've been able to build the picture of the loss, very comfortable with the loss estimate we've got around this. And 15.8, again, net of reinsured recoveries and reinstatements. So we're pleased with that outcome. Next slide, please. So on the pricing slide, this is one which we've shown consistently through. It is appropriate to us in that Marsh operate a very large commercial pricing index, embracing both property and casualty. During the quarter, it's held firm at 15. It's just been It's still an increase over quarter to quarter, but the rate of increases seems to be holding around about 15 across them. And then if you move on to the next slide, it's basically showing these are year to date cumulative numbers, but it's showing that we're still getting a solid level of increase through the quarter. or indices measure pure rate, essentially. We always point out that underlying the rate change, there's an attendant matching terms and conditions movement. If rates are down, then generally terms and conditions are down. And we're seeing that certainly in property classes and property submissions, we've seen when the rate's up, we're still able to, shall we say, squeeze and negotiate Thanks.

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