Ecora Royalties PLC

Good morning to you all, and thank you for taking the time to dial into our webinar this morning. So I'm Julian Traeger, the CEO of Anglifacific, and I have Kevin Flynn, our CFO, and Mark LaFleche, our CIO, on the call with me. I will initially cover the results highlights. Kevin will then discuss the financial results and the portfolio performance in 2020 and And then reflecting the change in complexion of our business, Mark will cover our strategic focus on 21st century materials, the Boise Bay acquisition, and cobalt particularly. Finally, I'll wrap up and then we'll take the usual Q&A questions. So just to give you some background, this results announcement is unusual for Anglo-Pacific in that it relates to a very different company to that which exists today. Post our transformational cobalt deal and our sell-down of a significant part of our stake in Labrador iron ore, the business looks and feels very altered. And so the results are somewhat historic and have already been signaled to the market at the time of our trading update. Nevertheless, 2020 was a difficult year for the world in general, and we were no exception. So turning to slide three with the financial highlights. Whilst our mines, on the whole, continued producing, there were some stoppages and also price weaknesses. This coincided with reduced production from Kestrel on the previous record level seen in 2019. And 2020 volumes were 11% lower at 5.8 million tons, a level which is likely to be the new normal in the near term. There were also a number of one-off items which impacted our results. Planned CapEx investment at IOC and a charge at Maracas Mention due to monies owed to Glencore upon the termination of their offtake agreement but these should not be repeated in 2021. Turning to the results themselves, we saw a decline in our royalty rates related revenues from close to 56 million pounds in 2019 to 34 million pounds last year. And likewise, the total portfolio contribution reduced from close to 60 million pounds to 37 million pounds. Adjusted earnings per share, reduced from 20.4 p to 12.35 p. But net debt at the end of the year was not very different from 2019. It actually reduced from close to 29 million to 24 million, largely benefiting from the 15 million pounds of LIOC disposals we made in December at a profit of 2 million pounds in preparation for the financing of the Boise Bay stream acquisition. Importantly, Kestrel represented 17% of the group's royalty assets on the balance sheet, down from 26% at the end of 2020. And this was reduced further to 12% after the acquisition of the Boise Bay cobalt stream, which we announced in March of this year. We did make a number of new investments during the year. Namely, we committed to a $20 million investment in the Incoa Performance Minerals Project, which is in the calcium carbonate space, diversifying the profile of our royalty income into something which is more stable than industrial minerals. We invested $2 million further into Brazilian nickel alongside the U.S. government as part of a wider financing package and continue to be very enthusiastic about the prospects for this project. We also spent £5 million buying back our shares at an average price of £1.90. partially financed through £4 million of non-core disposals, mainly consisting of bark energy, which went up a lot last year. And we reinvested close to £6 million in labrador iron ore in Q1. That yielded 14% through the year, and then we disposed of a significant piece of our labrador holding in December, which generated a a good profit of £2 million. So that's the highlights of the results for last year, but I'll now hand over to Kevin to cover the financial results and the portfolio in more detail. Kevin.

Thank you, Julian. Good morning, everyone. Turning to the financial highlights slide, if we can. Although the headline numbers for the year did show decreases on the record levels that we earned in 2019, as Julian mentioned, it's important to put this in the context of the widespread disruption to the coal markets as a result of COVID-19 during the year. In addition, there were a number of one-offs in the period, and I'll discuss these in more detail on the next page, but importantly, we don't expect them to reoccur. Secondly, I suppose 2019 did benefit from a windfall at Kestrel in terms of record levels of production. These now seem to be a one-off, so to compare 2020 to 2019 is not exactly to compare apples with apples. I'll discuss this again on the next page. But taking all this into account, total portfolio contribution for the year was still 37 million pounds, or approximately 50 million US dollars, which produced adjusted earnings per share of 12.35 pounds. Still a very resilient outcome for the year and really a testament to the quality of our assets, which from an operational perspective were largely uninterrupted by COVID. I'll touch on the KPIs in detail as we go through the individual slides. So if we could turn to the next slide, which is our income summary. And what I'll do here is I'll use this as an opportunity to update you on the portfolio as well. More detailed slides on the portfolio are in the appendices. So starting with Kestrel, revenue is around half the level of the previous year. And this was due to production levels not matching the record levels achieved in 2019. Volumes are down around 11% to 5.7 million tons. And we now expect following the Adaro announcement recently that this is the level to be maintained for the near term with around 90% of this to be within our private royalty lands in 2021. before transitioning kind of further out from our lines thereafter. Pricing in 2020 was impacted by COVID-19 and the Indian port closures in particular, which had adverse consequences for the seaborne market. But the average realized price at Kestrel is down around 34% in the year, impacting revenue. Turning to Maracas Mention, and this one potentially is one which has the most updates, Sales volumes in the year were slightly lower during the year as there was a one-off kind of working capital adjustment as they brought the sales function in-house following the termination of the Glencore offtake arrangement, which meant there was a lag between posting sales and receiving cash. The latter is what our royalty has paid on. This termination of the offtake arrangement also resulted in a 1.3 million charge. Again, this is non-recurring. And actually, the termination of the offtake is a positive for Anglo-Pacific because it should improve the margins going forward as we're no longer subject to offtake discounts. In terms of outlook, Largo is targeting a 25% increase in sales volumes in 2021. And with vanadium prices already ahead thus far this year, we are cautiously optimistic about our prospects for this royalty in the year ahead. There is further potential upside should they increase the portion of high purity vanadium pentoxide, which they're producing for the battery market. And Largo are also targeting modest increases in plant capacity to 1,100 tons per month in Q1 2021. And they hope to commission a V203 plant in late 2021 as well. Further out, they have plans for an aluminum extraction plant in 2023. And by way of a further update, Largo also announced that they've commenced selling some iron ore byproduct as well, albeit at these stages, relatively modest levels, volume levels. But overall in the round, plenty of upside potentially to come from this royalty. Mantos contributed a full year of revenue in 2020 based on 41,000 tons of payable copper. Guidance for 21 I think is around 54,500 tons with a long-term target post the de-bottlenecking completion of around 52,000 tons. Although there is actually the potential for a phase 2 de-bottlenecking project which could bring this higher. 2021 we would expect will benefit from pricing upside. The current price I think is already up around 15% on the closing 2020 prices. Looking at Narrabri, volumes were broadly flat in 2020, but similar to Kestrel, the results were impacted by softer coal markets in 2020. Whitehaven continued to mine through the localized fault area. This impacted volumes at the end of 2020. And this, along with some weather-related events earlier this quarter, led Whitehaven to reduce their FY21 guidance, which I think ends in June. to between 5.4 to 6 million tonnes. So that's down around 15% on their previous guidance. In terms of pricing, thermal coal prices have held up pretty well, actually, thus far in 2021. Prices up around 6% in the year to date. Looking at LIORC, another very strong year. Dividends were impacted, though, by the planned investments at the underlying mine. So the total dividend for the year of $3.05 we're down on the $4 received in 2019. As part of the financing package for the Boises Bay transaction, we reduced our position in LIWRC by 77%, and broker consensus dividends, I think, for 2021 are currently at $4.10. As Julian noted, the disposal of our position to part finance Boises Bay represented a very successful investment for Anglo Pacific and along with the dividends earned, represented a return of around 60%. EDBC had another very solid year with the increase in gold price compensating for lower volumes, which were as a result of lower grade oxides going through the plant. The portion of copper produced actually during 2020 was almost 50% higher than 2019. But most importantly for us, Sorvana completed an updated mineral resource and reserve estimate at the end of the year, suggesting a mine life of approximately five years, with a further potential inferred resource of about 450,000 ounces. So that five years could indeed be longer. They're targeting, in the meantime, 52,500 ounces of gold in their financial year 2021. I suppose McLean Lake, as Julian mentioned, was the one casualty we had of COVID-19, with operations being placed on care and maintenance between March and September, given the impact that an outbreak would have on what is a very remote population. This was placed back on care and maintenance in December, but we were very pleased to see earlier this week that they're now targeting recommencement in April. And this is not a royalty with price volatility. The investment generates around about half a million Canadian dollars a month per angler Pacific. So taking all of this into account, contribution for the year, 37 million pounds or $50 million, which again, we consider to be very resilient in light of the challenges of COVID and all the one-off items I've mentioned. If we can turn to the next page, which is a summary of our income statements, I won't go into a huge amount of detail here because I've already touched on the main points. Just to note that our costs were lower in 2020 than on a headline basis, but that includes share-based payments. Stripping out share-based payments, our cash costs were broadly in line with 2019 at around £6.2 million. The minor impairment charges predominantly relate to pushing out the start date for the Pilbara Royalty, And the Kestrel deficit reflects the depletion during the year and lower pricing inputs into the valuation model at the end of 2020. So overall, whilst we posted a loss of 18.6 million pounds in the year, excluding all of the non-cash items, our adjusted earnings were 22.2 million pounds, which produced adjusted earnings per share of 12.35p. Looking on to the next page, the balance sheet, I suppose this This is now a very outdated snapshot of our business at the end of December, given the Boise Bay transaction post-year end. So I won't touch on too many things in here. Our cash and borrowings are covered on the next slide. But it is probably worth touching on a few of the updates from our development assets, which actually have little or minimal balance sheet carrying value. First of all, we were very pleased to see the investment by Fortescue into the Canary Aco project in 2020, which provides fresh input to the project, which is a significant underdeveloped copper project in Peru, over which we hold royalty, whose value is only a million dollars on the balance sheet. Secondly, Hummingbird entered into an earning arrangement during 2020 for WB, which will see a third party invest in the project and undertake feasibility studies. And this was really the first significant progress of the project in a number of years, which, when coupled with the current high gold price, could pave the way to monetization of this asset. We were also pleased to see that the authorities in Brazil have given the go-ahead for the sale of the Amapá stockpile, which Anglia Pacific is entitled to a royalty over. Cadence Minerals continue to push for a creditor solution which would allow them to make a meaningful investment into the project with a view to bringing this back online. We retain our royalty in the meantime. And finally, we were very pleased to participate in the $2 million into a wider financing package by Brazilian Nickel during the year. And it was really interesting to see the US government participate in this equity raising, which is the first kind of tangible site of Western governments looking to secure supply of key strategic minerals. Our investment and the wider financing should push for the feasibility studies. And APG has an option to invest a further $70 million in additional royalties, which could be a very meaningful investment for Anglo-Pacific. Turning on to the next page, which is our liquidity and cash flow. Again, this snapshot very out of date following the Boise Bay acquisition recently. Free cash flow generated in the period was 47.8 million pounds. We invested 8.7 million during the year, which was mainly the LIORC reinvestments, which generated 14% for us in 2020, along with the Maracas deferred consideration and the Brazilian nickel investment. Overall distributions to shareholders were 21.7 million on a cash basis, which resulted in around 11.25 pence per share. This included the cash dividends paid of 9.25, along with a further approximate 2p by way of our share buyback program. The buyback program itself was largely financed through the disposal of part of our stake in Barclay Energia after its share price doubled during the year. And APG's share price in comparison at that time was trading close to a 52-week low. So this represented actually a very good recycling of capital. And the capital recycling theme continued at the end of 2020 with the disposal of 15.2 million of LIORC as we commence the financing plan for the Boise Bay transaction. Along with the remaining position, which we sold in Q1 2021, we generated about 60% return on this investment since we commenced acquiring it only in Q3 2018. So this retiring of iron ore with commodity trading at decade-level highs into cobalt, which has fallen by 50% since its peak a few years ago, hopefully represents a very good recycling opportunity as well. Following the Boise Bay acquisition, our borrowings drawn currently stand at $123.5 million. And along with our treasury shares and remaining LIORC stake, the group probably has anywhere between $50 to $60 million. of financing flexibility available to it immediately as we move forward with our growth ambitions for the remainder of the year. Turning to the next slide, which deals with capital allocation, following the Boise Bay transaction, the board is kind of undertaking a review with a view to implementing a more formal capital allocation policy in due course. But four of the key points which are likely to be included in this policy are outlined on this slide. The first of which is balance sheet strength. As we've now increased our leverage following the Voices Bay transaction, balance sheet discipline and strength is key to us. And we'll look to target meaningful deleveraging as we go through the remainder of the year. Funding for further acquisitions obviously is key for Anglo-Pacific. We are in growth mode. We intend to capitalize on the momentum of the Voices Bay transaction and the scale that it provides us and the diversification it provides us to continue growing our portfolio along the thematic of 21st century minerals. Thirdly, quarterly dividends. This is a pillar of our capital allocation policy and remains unchanged in the year. We will continue to pay 1.75 pence per quarter. And finally, other shareholder returns. So depending on our performance during the year, along with the growth opportunities we've either acquired or we're progressing, will then depend on the level of the final dividend for 2021 as a whole. But this policy remains unchanged. We retain the flexibility in the fourth quarter of each year to determine our final dividend. I'll now pass over to Mark, who will discuss the repositioning of Anglo Pacific post the Boise Bay transaction.

Thank you, Kevin. Starting on slide 12, our primary strategic focus has been to transition this business towards commodities and support a more sustainable world. And our focus on 21st century commodities has two key elements. First, those commodities required to achieve the electrification of energy consumption. For example, this includes commodities linked to renewable energy production, battery energy storage, EVs, and of course, electric grids. And second, we see green commodities as providing environmental benefits within their specific commodity setsets. So for example, mining operations which produce high purity products with low levels of deleterious elements relative to other producers of the same commodity, operations with relatively lower carbon footprints per unit of production, as well as mining operations that contribute to reduce carbon scope three emissions within broader supply chains. Moving to slide 13, The transformational Boise Bay cobalt stream acquisition is entirely consistent with that thematic and of course addresses two of our biggest strategic challenges. First, the Kestrel Royalty runoff and second, to decisively shift Anglo-Pacific's portfolio away from its heritage of coal and into 21st century commodities. Moving on to page 14. We're absolutely delighted to add the Boise Bay stream acquisition to our portfolio. Put simply, the operation very much ticks all the boxes. That's tier one mine, the tier one operator, and a tier one country. And by way of update, the underground expansion is now approximately 60% complete. Total capital spend to date is approximately $900 million of a total of $1.7 billion. And the start of underground mining operations remains on track to occur in 2021 and ramp up thereafter. Turning to slide 15 for a cobalt market update. Cobalt prices have now stabilized at approximately 20 to 22.50 per pound over the past few weeks from first quarter highs. And from there, still remain ahead of our assumptions for the full year, which we made at the time of the acquisition. And looking even further ahead at forecasts, electric vehicle battery chemistry market share forecasts, high manganese content batteries have captured headlines in the past weeks. However, there certainly remain a number of technological challenges to overcome. This technology is certainly not expected to be commercialized in any meaningful volume until 2025 at the very earliest. Lithium iron phosphate battery technology is responsible for a good chunk of non-cobalt-bearing cathode market share. However, relatively low energy density continues to be a key drawback. Accordingly, cobalt-bearing nickel cathodes remain and continue to be expected to capture the bulk of the market share over the next decade. which you can see on slide 15 by market share in 2020 to 2030 by cobalt-bearing and non-cobalt-bearing cathodes at approximately 75% to 79% and potentially beyond. So from here, we continue to believe that the outlook for cobalt appears to be very attractive. Back to you, Julian.