3/30/2022

speaker
Julian Treger
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you all for taking the time and interest today to listen to the annual results presentation. Also, as this is my final one of these, I want to thank you all for your interest in the company and support over the past couple of years. Running through the schedule, I will handle first the highlights overview. I'll then hand over to Kevin Flynn, our CFO, to cover the financial review. Then Mark LaFleche, who becomes CEO on Friday, will cover the company update and outlook as he is the future before we take questions. But on page three, turning to the highlights, we're very pleased to report a record annual portfolio contribution of over $85 million in 2021, a significant increase on the 2020 number, with 45% of this generated in Q4. These results were driven by strong performances at Kestrel and Boises Bay, with the former producing $26 million alone in the last quarter of last year. 2021 also represented a very successful rebalancing of our portfolio with 21st century commodities now representing 75% of the group assets, more than double that in 2020. As you all probably know, we exited Thermal Coal at a favorable price. But we didn't compromise our geographic exposure as we made this transition, and we remain heavily weighted to OECD countries. Good news announced today was that a new long wall has been added at Kestrel to smooth production volumes, and this is expected to increase the volumes within the group's private royalty lands by 10%, and smooth expected volume step-downs over the remaining life of the royalty. Given the strong performance in 2021, we ended the year in a robust financial position with net debt of $90 million, reflecting, of course, the Voices Bay acquisition, which was over $200 million, and also the fact that the record Q4 revenue wasn't received till January 2022. But since then, we've had a rapid deleveraging. The current net debt is around $80 million with the results from Q1 yet to be received. It's worth noting that based upon the Q4 run rate, our income would be around $150 million. So we expect rapid deleveraging during the course of this year. And that brings us to point five, which is that we are very strongly positioned for continued growth. We have $120 million of available liquidity to finance further growth initiatives. And as I will show on the following pages, we are facing a market with very strong commodity prices in the commodities which we are exposed to, which should assist this deleveraging process. And so we are looking at a diverse pipeline of strategic opportunities to grow the company in line with our stated strategy. Just turning back to the record contributions, that has led to strong adjusted earnings per share growth. And we are delighted to announce a significant increase from 15.7 cents to over 25 cents in 2021. The final dividend has been maintained at 1.75 P per share, which gives a full year dividend of 7 P per share as the focus continues to be on paying down our debt. Rosie, if we could turn to slide four, which really focuses on how the commodities underlying our portfolio continue to perform very strongly into 2022. you can see the striking disparity on the left of the page between the basket of commodities we're exposed to in our share price, which, whilst it has gone up slightly, hasn't risen by anything like the weighted commodity basket over the last 21 months. And whilst there was obviously some growth in the second half of 2021, and you can see that on the right side of the page at the bottom. I think what's really striking is how much growth we've seen in commodity prices year to date in 2022. And so that really suggests a very strong performance, at least through Q2 and hopefully throughout the year, which should result in another record year of income. Turning to slide five, we thought we would highlight in this hyperinflationary environment that we are entering. And you can see on the left side of the page the way that US consumer price inflation has really rocketed. And this is obviously before we see some of the effects of the war feeding through into inflation figures. we thought we would highlight why the royalty model really comes into its own more than ever in this environment. I think people are concerned about cost inflation and for normal mining companies, as you can see on the right side of the page, whilst they obviously get the same sort of revenues that we do on the top line from production and commodity prices, they are very exposed to operating cost inflation and capital cost inflation. And so there is generally a concern that some of the commodity price rises we've seen will be eaten up by cost increases. In contrast, the Anglo-Pacific royalty model doesn't have that sort of exposure. So we are a pure way of getting exposure to the top line commodity prices. And that I think is a major benefit to investors in a very inflationary environment, which we are entering into. So hopefully the market will appreciate the virtues of the model more than ever. And with that, I'll sign off and hand over to Kevin Flynn to cover the financial review. Kevin.

speaker
Kevin Flynn
Chief Financial Officer

Good morning, everyone. If we could turn to slide seven, and I'll go through our financial highlights from what was a record year of portfolio contribution from Anglo-Pacific. Total portfolio contribution was $85.6 million. 47.5 in 2020. And this in its own right was very impressive. It doesn't really tell the whole story because coking coal and thermal coal prices really only started to move in the second half of 2021. So to kind of contextualize this, 45% of our overall contribution came in the final quarter alone. And indeed, if you annualize that level of portfolio contribution, that would result in $150 million. So with pricing currently already significantly in advance of what was a record fourth quarter, we could see some significant organic growth from the portfolio to come in financial year 2022. We've included a bullet here to say that coal price is about $400 a tonne at the current kind of volumes produced from Kestrel. We think every $50 a tonne increase adds about $3.5 million a quarter to the Kestrel contribution. So that kind of gives you a flavour for the real impact these record levels of coking coal could have on our business going forward. Given the royalty model, the portfolio contribution drops to adjusted earnings, and those increase by 60% in the year to 25.2%. We'll look at the individual components of this in a couple of slides' time. And at the final dividend of 1.75p, which brings total dividend for the year to 7 pence, this produces a dividend cover of 2.6 times, which is very healthy. And in the short term, we will be looking to prioritise our debt repayment and growth initiatives as we go through the year. If we turn to the next slide, this is our portfolio contribution. So just drilling down into some of these numbers and I'll touch on some of the royalties as I go through. A record level of contribution from Kestrel in the year. And I think just to take a step back, if we think when I was presenting these results this time last year, coking coal was at $120 a ton, and the consensus price outlook for the remainder of FY21 at that time was $135 a ton. The actual outturn was $221 a ton, so expected this time last year. And clearly that's dropped straight through to our royalty revenue. But it's also benefited through the ratchet structure, whereby in a higher price environment, the weighted average royalty rate increases as well. As I said, most of this revenue came through in the fourth quarter alone. And the average daily spot cooking coal price for Q4 was about $308 a ton. The current spot price is just under $600. So already this year, we're at two times the level that our record Q4 for Enquestral was generated on. Looking ahead to FY22, we're expecting similar levels of volume from Kestrel. Adaro published their guidance in relation to that. So clearly in a higher price environment, there is a genuine prospect for good growth to come from Kestrel. Narrabri, well-documented production and operational issues over the last couple of years here, as they've navigated through the West Fault area. So our volumes actually year-on-year were down 50%, but the price increase was at 62%. And thermal coal kind of followed a similar path to coke and coal in many respects during 2021. However, going forward, we obviously have divested our interest in this royalty. And we think we took advantage of a good pricing environment in the second half of last year to do that. And that's looking like a reasonable bet at this juncture. Boise Bay, I think we're very pleased with the performance of this stream. This is our one stream in the portfolio. Streams differ slightly to royalties in so much that we actually receive physical product. And to that extent, we received 21 deliveries attributable to us in calendar year 2021. And the mechanism which we have in place to monetize these deliveries works seamlessly through the year. Very quick monetization to cash from receipt of the product. I think to look at this, this is nine months, obviously, of contribution from April to December. But again, kind of similarly to Coca-Cola and Kestrel, the price really started to move in the fourth quarter of the year. And I think if we look at the average cobalt price in Q4 of just under $30, I think we're at about $38 or $39 per pound today. So Again, genuine prospect of good growth to come from Boise, Spain the year ahead. Volumes were up just short of 10% in the year as they kind of achieved some of their de-bottlenecking ambitions. And there's more to come from that, as Mark will discuss later on in the presentation. But the price for copper was up about 38% average realisation period. Mantis Blankus is probably the one asset in our portfolio that we acquired in 2019 for $50 million. The copper price environment has moved on considerably from then, and the value of this royalty, we believe, has gone up considerably. Maracas mentioned a very good year from then also. The 2020 number was skewed slightly due to $1.5 million offtake termination charge. So not quite apples with apples when you look year on year. The volumes were in line, but probably at the lower end The price was up considerably. And I think whilst we need to see a few more quarters as to how they are selling their product, it does seem like they are producing and selling more to the battery market. And over time, we probably expect to see this achieving a premium to what was previously the benchmark V205 price. So again, we're very well placed with this royalty in terms of battery metal exposure. LIARC, again, similar to Mantos, not quite apples for apples on this one because we divested 77% of our holding to part finance and recycling to the Boise State Acquisition. But notwithstanding that, the dividend for the year increased by almost two times to $6 a share, reflecting obviously a very strong and healthy iron ore pellet premium market during the year. McLean Lake was up in the period. This reflects the planned shutdowns in 2020 as part of COVID care and maintenance. But we're pleased to see that this is running back by $600,000 Canadian dollars a month level. Formal, I won't say too much on. It's subject to ongoing legal dispute. We went to trial at the end of last year and we're awaiting judgment in respect of that case. EVBC, although it was in line, I think there was lower volume here as there was lower grade feed into the processing plant, but offset by a higher gold price environment from the year. So overall, Portfolio contribution record levels of 85.6 with obviously similar volumes expected in FY22 and we're in a much higher price environment currently. So turning over the page to slide nine and we'll just see how these adjusted earnings dropped down. Sorry, I had this portfolio contribution drops down to adjusted earnings. Looking at our operating expenses, these increased during the year. to $10.7 million, reflecting higher staff costs associated with our record year of contribution and investment, and also some costs associated with the four-mile legal dispute. Hopefully, if we are successful at trial, we'll recover some of these costs. So not to suggest that that's a normal run rate. Finance costs increased significantly during the year again. This reflects the rightful of the previous capitalized costs, which were released to the P&Ls upon the refinance of the facility associated with Voices Bay. And obviously, our average borrowing is during the year or higher than 2020 as well. But given the speed of deleveraging thus far in FY22, we should see a reduction in our finance costs in the year ahead. Tax of $14.1 million. cost because the disposal of Narrabri provided a tax shield against our Australian income. But because we don't take into account the loss on disposal and adjusted earnings, we can't take credit for the tax. So the actual kind of headline tax number is lower. But taking all this into account, adjusted earnings for the year are 52.3 million, significantly in advance of 2020. That kind of drops down to a 61% margin on portfolio contribution, which is very, very healthy. And as Julian said and noted, a very good inflation story, inflation hedge kind of story through the virtue of the royalty and streaming business model. Turning to slide 10, which is a summary of our balance sheet. Increase in net assets in the period from 293 million to 356. This largely reflects the adjusted earnings from the record contribution we had during the year and also the equity raise associated with Boise's fading metal stream. That is included in the balance sheet at 203 million at the end of the year. And that, along with 69.5 million of intangible assets, these two asset classes are held at amortized cost, and they are not revalued on our balance sheet like Kestrel is. And given the increase in the future price of cobalt, copper, vanadium, etc., we think there's significant upside to some of these asset values on our balance sheet. The Kestrel one is quite interesting. It actually increased in the year despite record levels of income, which you would normally associate with depletion. Two factors at play here. First of all, the forward NPV is at a higher cooking coal price input. But also the impact of this new long wall panel is coming through in terms of future volumes. And we estimate that that's added about 10% to the total volumes we expect to receive from the portfolio within our private royalty bank. And I'll discuss cash and markets on the next slide if we can turn to that now. Thank you. So this bridge chart shows the change in net debt during the year. And there's a very similar trend here to adjusted earnings. The record Q in terms of the portfolio contribution. But what I would note here is that the record Q4 Portfolio contributions only received in January 2022. And that's why our net debt of 90, as reported at 31 December, from the 1st of April, that number will be $60 million. So that really shows the speed of deleveraging that we've achieved in the first quarter of this year. And with higher commodity prices expected for Q2, that speed of deleveraging looks set to continue. We paid dividends of $25.4 million in the period, which implies a capital allocation ratio of 8 to 1 towards growth. And that very much aligns with where we are strategically at the moment in terms of building on the momentum of the Boise Bay acquisition to add further growth to the portfolio. And with $60 million of net debt, leaving $80 million of undrawn borrowings, in addition to our residual stake in LIROC and Treasury shares, we have well over $120 million as of today to deploy into future growth opportunities. And that number is going to increase as we go through the second quarter of the year and continue to receive monthly cash flow from Kestrel. So with that, I'll hand over to Mark, who will go through the portfolio in a bit more detail.

speaker
Mark LaFleche
CEO‐designate

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. As mentioned, 2021 was a transformational year, not only in terms of revenue record, but also in terms of our portfolio. And you can see on slide 14 the cumulative impact of all of the acquisitions that have been completed. Julian mentioned as well, this has been achieved without sacrificing or without compromising either the group's exposure to Tier 1 geographies. On page 15, cantering through the portfolio, the Boise's Bay Underground expansion is progressing in line with our expectations, and we're absolutely delighted with the exceptional cobalt price environment, which I'll discuss in more detail shortly. Earlier this year, Mantos and Capstone completed a combination to create a leading pure plate copper producer. And Capstone has recently identified further upside potentials at Mantos. Absolutely fantastic. And it's something that we identified as a potential source of upside at the time of the acquisition. Later this year, we expect to see And that's expected later this year. And Mentos also continues to evaluate the extension of oxide ore processing. So more to come. Some interesting catalysts on that asset later this year. We've discussed earlier on this call the new long wall at Kestrel and turning to IOC and LIARC. the demand environment for pellets and high-quality iron ore remains exceptionally strong, with pellet premiums continuing to trade at all-time record levels. At Maracas, during the year, we saw some very good news in terms of an approximately 10-year life of mine expansion, and furthermore, the plans to construct an ilmenite byproduct circuit, which would be captured by the Anglo-Pacific Royalty. At EDBC, as always, the company is focused on expanding its reserve life to roll forward a five-year life and exploration plans are underway. And turning now to some of our development assets, the Incola wrap-up continues. The operation is producing product on spec, which is excellent news. The wrap-up has been impacted by COVID and unfortunately also by the logistics challenges and quite frankly, the global economy more generally. And so at this time, we expect funding of our trench to occur in H2 or early 2023. At POE, the company is fast approaching the completion of a definitive feasibility study. That's expected later this year. And furthermore, at POE as well, the team is currently completing the construction of a small-scale plant facility nickel and cobalt later this year. Turning now to page 16, as mentioned by both Julian and Kevin, we've been absolutely delighted by the performance of Boise's Bay since the acquisition, particularly with the exceptionally strong cobalt price. Cobalt price levels have almost doubled from 2020 year end to present. And that's been driven by a number of factors. First, we've seen robust EV sales growth, as well as a rebound in industrial and market demand. But furthermore, supply chain disruption has really impacted the ability of cobalt products to get to market. First, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where 75% of the world's cobalt is produced, there have been some major logistical challenges, in part, we understand, driven as a result of the Kamoa mine construction, which is absorbing local logistics and is creating bottlenecks in terms of getting cobalt out of the DRC and south to South Africa, where cobalt is typically exported to the world. But furthermore, as a result of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Looking ahead in terms of the cobalt battery chemistry market share forecast, things have been relatively constant over the past year, which is pleasing. And furthermore, the game is changing in terms of substituting cobalt-bearing battery chemistries, in large part driven by almost a seven times increase in lithium prices, which is really changing the economic calculus. lithium iron phosphate batteries to nickel cobalt chemistries. On page 17, as mentioned earlier, earlier this year, Largo published an updated NI43-101 report, which sees the mine plan extended from 2031 roughly to 2041 roughly. That mine plan extends post-2032 covers in part the annual pacific area up to 2031 we anticipate all operations to be fully covered by our royalty and that's outlined on the bottom half of the page and we think this is a good opportunity just to re-emphasize you know how great of an asset maracas mention is within the context of the vanadium industry and you can see this on the top right globally in terms of our royalty exposure to that asset. We could not be more pleased. On page 18, we can see our current ESG diligence risk assessment framework, which is fundamental to our investment process. During the year, we've updated this framework and that's simply to ensure that we keep pace with fast evolving best practices. On page 19, please, Rosie. We've made very significant progress in terms of our sustainability profile, as well as disclosure over 2021. First of all, in terms of our portfolio exposure, which has been absolutely transformed by the Boise Bay acquisition in terms of our portfolio carbon footprint. And it's important to keep in mind that per unit of nickel produced at Boise Bay, the carbon to nickel ratio is amongst the lowest of all global carbon. nickel operations. Second, we've exited thermal coal. Third, we've been certified at the corporate level by climate partners as scope one, two, and three carbon neutral. We've committed to adhering to UN global combat principles. And furthermore, we've improved our disclosure of our ESG policies, but also our framework, which has brought in with our framework, which has been developed in line with ILO Pacific's being as a royalty company and not mining operator. And looking ahead to 2026, we are very firmly on path to continue our transition and our journey or legacy of coal such that by 2026, we expect to be almost 100% 21st century commodities. Turning to page 20, please. In terms of a pipeline update, we continue very much to target one to three acquisitions per year. And in terms of the opportunity set, at the moment, many of the opportunities tend to be at the construction stage or medium-term production stages. So slightly earlier, perhaps given relative to the past five years. And that's really driven by a function of what's expected to be very strong commodity demand in order to achieve the energy transition. And therefore, in that context, what we're seeing is a significantly larger absolute pool of capital required, which, again, bodes very well for our opportunity sets and our ability to supply capital. We're also seeing increased availability of debt and equity alongside our royalty piece, which is therefore positioning a lot of projects to come into production and to finance construction. Since Anglo-Pacific is a royalty provider alone, our capital and our product isn't sufficient to get projects off the ground. And last, the majority of our discussions on our opportunity set continues to be on a bilateral basis. And this really underscores the far less competitive environment in the non-precious space relative to precious metals royalty sector. Returning to 2021, to recap, 2021 was a record year of portfolio contribution driven by exceptionally strong met coal and cobalt prices in the second half of the year. We completed the transformational Boise Bay acquisition, which continues to perform very strongly. And we exited thermal coal. 21st century commodities have moved significantly, even in the past year, to a year ending 75% of our group assets. And then looking into the future, into the next year, Our commodity basket, which delivered record results in the fourth quarter, is now performing even more strongly in Q1. So as mentioned at the top of the call by Kevin as well, we very much expect a strong Q1. strong H1, and we're positioned for another record year. And that cash flow is really going to allow us to delever our balance sheet. We've seen a very rapid deleveraging profile, as mentioned, and should commodity prices stay where they are, the business could be debt-free by the end of 2022. And from there, in terms of capital allocation, our first priority very much remains repaying debt incurred in part to fund the Boise Bay acquisition. And from there to finance growth. Anglo-Pacific in the last eight years has never had a better balance sheet or been better positioned to deploy capital, acquire royalties that will ensure that the business the Kessler Royalty wind down over the next four years. So from there, I would really also like just to take a moment to both thank Julian and congratulate Julian for having led the successful transformation of the Bangor Pacific over the last eight years. but also for putting into place such a talented and experienced team that ensures that as we look into the future, the company is positioned in absolute strength for the next phase of growth. So thank you very much, Julian, from the team at APG. From here, we'd be happy to take questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Thank you, Mark. We've already had a number of questions come through, so we'll take them one by one. Our first question is, can you talk a bit more about your deal pipeline and priorities for the year? With the balance strengthening, what deal size would you be comfortable with at the moment? And as an extension of that, what commodities do you see most attractive at the moment?

speaker
Mark LaFleche
CEO‐designate

Okay, thank you very much for the question. Rosie, please could you flip to page 20? So taking first the commodity focus, our strategy very much remains those commodities directly required to achieve and edit the energy transition and global climate change objectives or to projects or mining operations that themselves, while not directly feeding into the energy transition and markets, will have relative environmental or relatively better sustainability profiles. So for example, potash project, which has significantly lower carbon units per unit of potash relative to industry producers. Our vision for Anglo-Pacific continues to be to provide investors with de-risk commodity price exposure to those basket of commodities required for the global net zero targets. And therefore, on the left side of this page, you can see those commodities, which we have in our portfolio, and those which we will continue to target. In terms of balance sheet capacity, over the course of the year, we think we have balance sheet firepower, which could range 150 to $200 million.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Thank you. Our next question. How has the share price matched commodity basket performance in the years prior to 2021?

speaker
Mark LaFleche
CEO‐designate

We don't have the exact figures to hand, However, historically, it would probably be fair to say that the Anglo-Pacific share price has traded with a closer correlation to its underlying commodity basket.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Our next question. You indicate that Kestrel is expected to produce an average of two MPTA between 2023 and 2025. What was the production volume in 2021?

speaker
Kevin Flynn
Chief Financial Officer

volumes within our land was about 5.3 million tons from overall volumes of about 5.7. We're expecting similar levels in 2022.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Thank you. Our next question. Could you talk about your shareholder return policy? both how do you expect record cash flow to show in the dividends and what to expect from your share repurchase policy, especially when the stock price is attractive?

speaker
Mark LaFleche
CEO‐designate

Our priority at the moment continues to be deleveraging the balance sheet. At year end 2020, the business had approximately $90 million in debt, which in absolute levels is higher than where we would like that to be through the cycle. And so for the short term, we see these record cash flows really as a way to rapidly improve our balance sheet profile. And secondly, we see these strong cash flows as a way to recycle met cool into other green commodities, such as cobalt, copper, nickel, and other, because ultimately Anglo Pacific is a business that, all its underlying assets are depleting. And therefore, it's very important to also replace the sources of cash flow. And a perfect example is the Kestrel step-down in terms of cash contribution that's expected between today and 2026. And so therefore, our priorities in the near term continue to be deleveraging the balance sheet, growth, all the while continuing at a dividend at a very attractive dividend level of 7p per share and a healthy dividend yield.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Thank you. We've got a number of questions coming from this person. Firstly, any plans to capture additional shareholder value, e.g. a merger with Altius Minerals and uplisting to the New York Stock Exchange? Secondly, what transactions are in the pipeline to replace lost Kestrel revenue?

speaker
Mark LaFleche
CEO‐designate

So I'll take the first question. We're currently not exploring any corporate combinations. That being said, the team and the board are fully committed to delivering shareholder value, and should that make sense in the future is something the company would consider carefully. In terms of the second question, in relation to... The pipeline, as always, we seek to target one to three transactions per year. And as we mentioned earlier, the company currently has over the course of this year, we expect 150 to $200 million of firepower to complete further acquisitions. Fundamentally, the business in our view has been successful because of its very disciplined approach to capital allocation, particularly in growth. And we very much plan to maintain a disciplined and rigorous due diligence process and investment framework.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

They also had a third follow-up question. Any lessons for future capital allocation from the loss on sale of the Narabi royalty?

speaker
Mark LaFleche
CEO‐designate

We do believe that that transaction was structured to include a number of contingent payments, both linked to... future performance of thermal coal prices, but also the permitting of that link to narrow rise south. And therefore, in time, that loss could be substantially unwound as those contingents come through. Generally speaking, in terms of our growth policy, looking ahead, we've committed as Anglo-Pacific Group to no longer invest in coal or carbon-based energy. And our strategy is to reinvest record levels of cash flow generated by Kestrel into 21st century commodities in line with our stated strategy.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Thank you. Our next question. Once Voices Bay underground transition is complete, what annualised cobalt volume is expected compared to 2021 levels?

speaker
Mark LaFleche
CEO‐designate

Vale is forecasting run rate levels of approximately 2.6 thousand tonnes per year, of which Anglo-Pacific is really entitled to approximately 23% prior to the stream step down expected towards the end of the reserve life.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Thank you. Our next question, on the opportunities you're seeing, are they mainly royalties or streams? Is now the time to think about longer dated pre-production royalties, which are cheaper while your near-term pipeline is strengthened by coal?

speaker
Mark LaFleche
CEO‐designate

As a company, we're open-minded to both royalties and streams and the fundamental risk reward profile between a royalty and the stream is very similar. In terms of our allocation to development stage versus producing, at this time, we see a number of attractive opportunities at the construction stage or opportunities that are likely to come into production in the medium term. And therefore, we do think it's an opportunity to acquire royalties and streams that would over the longer term relative to a producing asset. We do see generally, and as mentioned before, these strong Kestrel cash flows really put Anglo-Pacific in the position to pivot from, you know, to pivot to growth in the future and to really pivot its strategy to becoming more of a growth play.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

We have a follow-up question from Richard Hatch at Berenberg. Do you see any scope for further panels to be added at Kestrel?

speaker
Mark LaFleche
CEO‐designate

At this time, we're not aware of any possibility to further expand the panels within the Angle Pacific Royalty area. And Richard, if you click to slide... 33 in the appendix, you can see the Anglo-Pacific royalty overlay, the mine plan, as well as the new panel. And given the royalty area, the private royalty area, it seems unlikely that new panels would be added to our royalty area. And were they to be expanded, it's unlikely that they would be captured by the Anglo-Pacific royalty area.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Thank you. Our next question. To what extent do you expect the fall in revenue from Kestrel to be offset by revenues from current non-producing assets over the remaining life of Kestrel?

speaker
Mark LaFleche
CEO‐designate

If you take it through the cycle view on Kestrel income from, you know, Ignoring record levels that are almost six times where Metco prices were 12 to 24 months ago, the acquisitions that we've completed over the past eight years put the business in a position to have replaced that Kestrel income in terms of a baseline revenue profile. Now, on a year-on-year basis, obviously, the decline in income and revenue profile will be accentuated by record met coal prices. On balance, of course, that's an extremely helpful thing as we'd always take those cash flows to really accelerate our growth profile, but also our ability to recycle those coal cash flows into green commodities.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Thank you. We have one more question come through. Is there a plan to move into tin space in lieu of very low overall investor awareness on this commodity?

speaker
Mark LaFleche
CEO‐designate

The TIN is a very interesting commodity. It's absolutely fundamental to the energy transition, particularly in circuit boards. TIN as a commodity is relatively less well-tracked and less well-followed, and therefore does present bilateral opportunities for the group. One consideration in relation to TIN relates to the general demand geographic footprint of most tin supply, which we would consider to be slightly outside of our geographic targets. That being said, tin as a commodity is very much on our radar. And in the medium term, we think is really important to provide investors to the full suite of commodities required to achieve the energy transition.

speaker
Operator
Conference Moderator

Thank you. We have no further questions. So unless a question is submitted in the next few seconds, I'm going to hand back to you for any additional or closing remarks.

speaker
Mark LaFleche
CEO‐designate

Well, thank you very much all for joining us today. We very much look forward to updating the market in the matter of a few weeks in relation to our Q1 trading update, which we expect to be even stronger than our Q4 of last year. So stay tuned.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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