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Fresnillo plc
7/30/2024
Thank you for joining us, this Fresnillo PLC Centering Results. I'm joined by Mario Arreguin, our CFO, and also by our COOs on the Central Region, Tomasi Turriaga, on the Northern Region, Daniel Diaz. and also by our team of the London office. This morning you will hear an update how we are doing up to this half year on the operations, but also on the prospects and projects and how we are going. First of all, the disclaimer. This is the agenda that we will discuss this morning, investment proposition, HSECR, the highlights on the operational side and the financial side, operational performance at each one of the mines, the financial performance addressed by Mario Arreguin, and to finalize with the outlook before we go to Q&A. We continue to be the world's largest silver producer and also leading producer of gold in Mexico. Underpinned by the portfolio of quality assets, 2.2 billion ounces of silver resources and close to 38 million ounces of gold. We've been working to improve the margins At each one of the mines, working twofold, very much on productivity, but also to contain and mitigate the costs caused by inflation and the effects at our mines. But also, I can say that, of course, these prices are helping us in that regard. We have good cash flows coming from our operations, attractive returns, so that we have cash on hand very healthy. The strong balance sheet as well, and we are on full year production guidance on track to hit it on the gold side and also on the silver side. A few words on the markets. We cannot disregard that the silver, with its duality in terms of industrial demand, has a very good support, growing at a nice pace, but also on the gold side, regarded for the store of value. But the good thing about these two markets is that scarcity of resources. I mean, it's been long since we haven't really had a discovery, a good discovery on the silver side, but also trending down on the gold side. So with this demand, the deficits in the market that support for the coming years, we believe this level of prices. On HSECR, safety is at the heart of all we do. As you can see, we have a very positive trend since 2017 to now. We continue to instill the culture iCareWeCare across all of our operations and across all levels in our organization. On the environment side, a few highlights. We're coming also to increase The demand, energy demand from eolic sources coming from the low 50s at the end of last year to 70% of all demands coming from green energy sources, closing the gap to 75 by 2030. Community relations is very important across all of our operations. It's a partnership since the time that we get there for exploration, but through the different stages as we develop the operations. Of course, a good, educated community is one that we can discuss things and issues. but also we support very well health in our communities. We bring every year through Fundación UNAM, the program for a week, in addition to what we have in terms of health infrastructure in our operations. And that program is very well regarded. Also, I mean, we work with them in order to strengthen their entrepreneurial skills and abilities so that they benefit from the economic growth that we have in the regions. and also in sports and, as I mentioned, in education. Twenty-four half-year highlights on the operational side, 28.2 million ounces of silver and just off 271,000 ounces of gold. We are working in the short term, but also in the medium and long term. In the short term, we reaffirm our guidance, silver production in between 55 and 62 million ounces of silver. On the gold side, 580 to 630,000 ounces of gold. We've had a soft first half, but Daniel Diaz will address what we are expecting for the second half in terms of gold production. But as I mentioned, it's a reassurance of the guidance that we will achieve according to what we described for this year. In the medium term, you will recognize that we have a stable production for the following two to three years. And what we are doing in order to address that is bringing some other brownfield production increases across our operations. More clearly on the Herradura district, but also in some synergies in the Fresnillo district as well. And you will start hearing more and more how we are thinking about those brownfield production increases in these two areas. A few words on the financial performance highlights. As I mentioned, healthy cash flows coming from our operations. EBITDA by half year 544. Mario Arreguin will tell us all the details about the financial performance. But just to say as a highlight as well that to half year we've been net cash positive and cash on hand of $690 million. A few words also on the projects. Odisebo continues to advance to pre-feasibility. Nonetheless, it's a challenging project, but more and more we are strengthening this case, this business case on the metallurgical side, but also on the return side. There are a few years until we bring this project on stream. Rodeo, nice to report that we finally have a deal with the agrarian community We struck a deal in order to go for three years. This three years period, I mean, will help us to start the exploration, convert those info resources into indicators, indicated, and continue with the pre-feasibility and feasibility stages there. Tajitos, we can regard that as a satellite operation in the Herradura district. That is advancing very well. We have reported before, I mean, the land is, we have title of the land, and also we continue exploring and making that resource growth. But the start of this project is Guanajuato. You will see how the resources grew from one year to the other. And that continues to be the case. It is an underground vein system. Good grades, what we are discovering there, and certainly an operation for the future in the Fresnillo portfolio. This to say that there are so many other projects in our portfolio. And that's something that we will do as well. Some of them are in advanced exploration, but with some metallurgical problems. I should point out to Lucerito, a nice resource in terms of silver, but also gold and also zinc. With the metallurgical... Different metallurgical processes that we are testing across all of our operations, we believe that we have possibility to unlock this project and make it somehow possibility for the future in our portfolio as well. And that's something that we are doing as well. San Juan is a nice project also in the vicinity of Durango and Torreon, good infrastructure there, and that's something that we will take in the following periods. And with that, I would like to pass the microphone to Tomasi Torreira on the Fresnillo District, and then followed up by Daniel Diaz as well.
Thanks, Octavio. Good morning, everyone. So let me start with some comments on Fresnillo. So as we reported in our production report days ago, we faced some challenges in our mine operations during the first half of the year, such as poor ground conditions requiring extra ground support, these delaying mining cycles and impacting volumes produced, and diluting silver grates also. We also found narrower than expected veins impacting volumes mined and also increasing dilution of the ore extracted from those specific areas. All these impacts coincidentally happen in the east section of the mine, which is where higher silver grains are expected. So that's why you see an impact to our silver grains in the first half of the year. Results, we're already addressing all these conditions by adding additional bolting equipment already at the mine site. So to deal with the conditions, to the ground conditions faster and those expediting mine cycles. And also by placing orders for smaller mine equipment to adjust to the mining sections, to the narrower veins. We are reviewing in detail our short versus long-term reconciliation models to be able to better manage grade and tons variations in our production planning. And we are also very focused on improving our operational discipline and day-to-day controls in order to secure optimal performance of the mine. With all these actions, we expect an improved performance in the second half of the year at Orofresnillo Mine. Challenges with the silver grade, as I described. I wanted to highlight that the gold, zinc, and lead grades at Fresnillo are all above plan. So in a silver equivalent ounces basis, the production has been solid during the first half of the year. And also our cost reduction programs are granting good results in total dollar terms despite still strong Mexican peso and some persistent inflation. Moving into Saucito. I wanted to share with you that we are pleased with the turnaround of the operation after a very complicated 2023 that we faced. And although we don't take anything for granted, we continue very focused in all aspects of the operations. We can say now that the safety of the mine has improved noticeably. Their grades are consistently according to plan, and the mine output is also achieved consistently at the mine. Our new management team appointed early this year is having the leadership and making the impact that we expected out of them, while our young workforce has stabilized and started to show improved productivity after the turmoil caused by the labor reform a couple of years ago, particularly having an impact on Saucito. Coastal is still an area of opportunity at Saucito, so we will further reinforce our ongoing efforts there to complement the good operational performance. Moving on to Juanicipio where we had a very strong performance and results during the first half of the year. The mine operations are steadily delivering the output according or better than planned. We commissioned and ramped up mill operations seamlessly and have continued operating steady without any relevant issues. And the silver grays are reconciling very positively versus geological model. All this making for a very good and encouraging first full year of operations at Juanicipio. We will continue focusing on securing a sustained performance at Juanicipio. and also advancing the design, construction, and installation of our underground belt conveyor as the next infrastructure component adding to the productivity of the Juan Ecipio mine. So I already described the main focus for each one of the mines of the central operational region, but I want to also comment that, as Octavio mentioned, we are focusing in advancing some brownfield opportunities. For example, we are focusing over within defense exploration. So we have that brownfield potential to our existing mines. And we have the early stage development of a potential integrated slash interconnected Fresno District operations concept to unlock synergies and take full advantage of the installed capacity that we already have in the district. So with that, I'll pass it along to Daniel Diaz for the northern operations. Thank you.
Good morning, everybody. Moving forward to our Northern District operations, let's start with Cienega. As you probably know, Cienega is one of our legacy operations, has been there actually this year. It's getting 30 years old. So despite the complexity of this operation, given its age, I'm happy to report that we have developed a successful turnaround of this operation. The net result is a 35% reduction year-on-year basis on an all-in-sustaining cost basis, which is a fantastic outcome with a 9% reduction in cost per ton, 30% of all production in silver, and 19% of all production in gold. So we're very happy with the results we're getting in Senegal. The key drivers for this upgraded production is an improved mine plan, delivering higher grades. We changed the sequence and we also have a tighter dilution control that is driving these results. On exploration, Given its age, it's not easy to find new areas. However, we have been successful on delivering positive results at depth and on new areas on Cienega. So we expect to come with good news extending the mine life one or two years from what we have right now. So all in all, very positive results on Cienega. Moving into Herradura, in Herradura, despite a strong first quarter that we had this year, we had a softer second quarter. This is driven mainly by strong weather events that triggered a geotechnical failure in one of our key operating areas. Outcome of that was the inability to access higher-grade oxides. So this is not the lower production on second quarter. This is not a problem on the grades or the amount of ore. It's about getting the oxides for the heap leach, as you probably read. on our reports. It's about the recovery and what we're triggering on the heap ledge. However, the good news is that we already accessed that ore. It's available and we expect to catch up during the second semester and finalize the year within our guidance for the company with stronger results in Radura. What you see as a result on cash cost and only in sustaining cost, it's not an increase in expenditure. It's actually the lower production is triggering up the cost. But on the second half, we're expecting to come back to the $1,500 to $1,600 only in sustaining cost basis. The relevant news on Herradura are around the Herradura district that we briefly mentioned earlier this year about the potential that we're seeing there. And we continue to progress on a strong pace on geotechnical work and conceptual engineering for two of the potential underground operations that we expect in there. We expect to share some news on the results on upcoming presentations. We are still advancing the exploration program in Tajitos and other prospective targets within the district that, as you know, we see strong potential for exploration beyond what we already have in Arrauda in our own land that has already intervened, so high hopes on what we have in there. And in terms of cost reduction, we have a program very strong with key measures for the second half of the year. We are reviewing our key contracts right now, and we expect to start capturing some of the savings during the third quarter of the year. And finally, moving to San Julian, as we reported before, the issue that we had on the disseminated ore body that triggered the necessity of shortened mine life and end the operations in October this year has been – well compensated and overcompensated in production by the vein system. We're happy to report that we have a 19% higher production in gold and a 60% higher production in veins in the vein system on silver. So we have very strong results both on the operational side. push together a very strong operational excellence program that we're already capturing the results right now by higher throughput. We already delivered 3% to 4% higher throughput. However, on a run rate basis, we expect a 9% on the long run. And we also are having higher rates than expected on the mine, so the results are good. the ones that you can see, with an overall outcome of a 34% reduction on an oil in sustaining cost basis for the vein system. What is the net result of this? It's the sustainability of the long-term view of the vein system. That is what is going to keep operating during the upcoming years. And also the successful exploration results that we have seen on San Julian right now makes us very confident about the future of San Julian. Beyond 2030, that is where we have our current life of mind plan. Thank you. Handing over to Mario.
Thank you, Daniel. And if you don't mind, I'll just stay here. If we can move to page 22, please. All right, thank you. This slide shows the income statement for the first half of the year, and we compare that to the same period in 2023. And as you can see from all the different profit levels which are underlined in yellow, we had a very good first half. Gross profit was up almost 39%. Operating profit was up almost 190%. Profit before income tax was up 480 percent, profit for the period was up 31 percent, and the PITA was up 55 percent. So let me start with the very first yellow line, with the gross profit, where we show a 109.7 million increase in gross profit. If you move up that same column all the way to the top and look at the adjusted revenues you will see that we had an increase of $129.5 million. So clearly, most of that gross profit increase was due to higher revenues. Now the question is how much of that increase in revenues was due to volume and how much of that was due to price. And to answer that question, if we can move to page 23, please. Here in the bottom part, you can see that of the $129.5 million increase in revenues, we actually had a negative impact from volume, a 59.2 million negative impact. And that mainly resulted from the lower gold sales volume, which was 19 percent down compared to last year. resulted in a $118 million adverse effect. Fortunately, that was mitigated by the higher silver volume sold, 5.5 percent higher, which represented a $37.7 million benefit. Also, we had higher sales For both of our byproducts, lead was up almost 20% in sales volume and had an impact of $11 million positive. And in the case of zinc, 17% higher sales volume, which represented a benefit of $20 million. In terms of prices, clearly we were benefited by the higher gold and silver prices. Average price for the period was $2,236 per ounce in the case of gold. That was an almost 15% increase compared to the previous period and had a positive impact of $83 million. In the case of silver, average price for the first half of the year was $27 million. It was 16 percent higher than the previous year, and that represented a benefit of $103.8 million. If we can go back quickly to page 22 of the income statement, and if we continue to move down, you will see that the adjusted production costs were higher by 9 percent, or $17 million. And the best way to explain this variation, I think, would be if we move to page 24, where we show what we call a rainbow analysis or waterfall. And here at the green bar, which is at the far right-hand side, represents the $70 million increase in adjusted production cost. And like always, in red, We showed the variables that had an adverse effect, and in blue, those which had a positive effect. So I would like to start with the variables that are outside of our control. With bar number three, you can see the effect of the revaluation of the Mexican peso. Now remember, we are comparing the average exchange rate for the first half of this year compared to the first half of last year. So the average exchange rate last year was 18.21, and the average exchange rate for this year was 17.10 pesos per dollar, meaning a 6.1 percent revaluation. Bear in mind that currently the spot exchange rate is 18.6, but this adjustment or this devaluation came about just a few weeks ago. So we didn't see the benefit of that devaluation in the first half. Well, this devaluation had a negative effect of almost $31 million, as you can see there. And in column number four, we talk about cost inflation. excluding the FX effect. I would say that inflation is subdued now. We only experienced a 1.7% increase in inflation in terms of the unit cost increase in our intakes, and that had a negative impact of $18.8 million. Now, if we look at bar number one, What we show here is basically some of the operating issues that we have faced, which translated into higher production costs. Namely, for example, in Herradura, where we had longer haulage distances, and in Fresnillo, where we had, you know, more maintenance and the use of additional contractors, this had a negative impact of $15 million. And in contrast to that, we had on bar number six, you can see that we also experience efficiencies in economies of scale at some of our mines, specifically at Saucito, Juanicipio, Cienega and San Julian. Unfortunately, that had a positive effect of reducing our production cost by almost $61 million. So the net effect was positive when you look at column 1 and 6 simultaneously of approximately $11 million. And lastly, in column number two, we show the effect of the increase in the volumes of ore produced. Of course, if you are processing more ore and extracting more ore, that translates into a higher production cost. implied an increase of 26.7 million. Now this one, we really don't need to worry about it because behind this increase in volume, we will see an increase in sales and an increase in profit. So to summarize, I think the only one that has to do directly with the operations is bar number one. But again, fortunately, that was offset, completely offset, or more than offset by bar number six. So hopefully with that you get a clear idea of, you know, what went on during the first half of the year. If we can move back to page 22, please. If we continue to move down the income statement after adjusted production cost, you will see the depreciation line. And here you see an important increase of almost $68 million. It's almost equivalent to the same increase that we saw in adjusted production cost. And the reason for that increase was basically related to two of our mines. One is the San Julian mine, as you know. That mine has two operations, the disseminated ore body and the veins. The disseminated ore body is coming to an end. Probably by October we will be done with all our reserves and resources. So we had to depreciate that, you know, at a much more accelerated pace. So that was one of the reasons. And the other reason had to do with Juan Ecipio. You know, that's practically a new mine, and it's natural to see an increase in the depreciation at Juan Ecipio. I would say those are the two main reasons behind that increase in depreciation. If you continue to move down, you will see an important effect, I will say, of the variation in change in inventories. That had a positive effect of almost $85 million. And to explain that, just briefly, if you look at the change in inventories in 2023, you will see that we had a reduction in inventories equivalent to $26.3 million. Maybe you might not remember, but a year ago, what I explained was the fact that we found additional ounces at the Raduna mine, which were not accounted for. So they were... Accounting-wise, they were considered at zero cost. It was approximately 25,000 ounces at zero cost, which were mixed with the inventory, and the effect of that was a reduction of inventories. That, together with Juanicipio, where we had a reduction in the stockpile of mineral that we had accumulated because of the delay in the construction of the plant. So that inventory came down and those are the two reasons behind the decrease in inventories which accounted for $26 million. In contrast to that, in 2024, you see that we had an increase of $58.5 million, which basically resulted at the Herradura mine with the newer production going into the inventories at a higher cost. So it was not a volume effect, but it was rather the way we registered the cost of the inventories. And lastly, in unproductive cost, you will see that we had a benefit of $21.5 million, and that's due to the fact that in 23, I'm sure you remember, that we had an illegal stoppage, a four-week illegal stoppage at Terradura and Nochebuena. So the costs incurred during that period, which were not related to production, were accounted for as unproductive costs. And of course, we didn't see that happening this year, so that's why you see this positive effect of $21.5 million. If we continue to move down the income statement very quickly, you will see that the profit from continuing operations increased by $154 million, of which $110 came from the higher gross profit. So the two additional issues that increase the operating profit were, one, the lower exploration expenses. We are spending less compared to last year. Actually, we are behind what we budgeted for this year, but we expect to make up for that or most of that during the second half. And then in other income, you see a... let's say, a benefit of $28.5 million. Again, we had an extraordinary event in 2023. If you look at the number there, you will see that we recognized a $33.5 million expense. And back then, what I explained was that we had seen some activities going on at our leaching pad in Soledad and Dipolos, some illegal extraction going on, and we estimated that approximately $22 million were extracted of our inventories, and we recognize that as a loss in our income statement. We're not seeing that activity going on this year, so that's why you see that positive effect of $28.7 million. If you continue to move down, the income statement in terms of the silver stream. As you know, we do market – we mark to market the silver stream at the end of the half year and at the end of the year. And in 2023, what we saw was a loss and that was due to the fact that the Sabina mines is where, you know, the silver comes out from, had recognized lower resource and resources. So when we included that into our model, valuation model, that resulted in less production going forward, and that's why we recognized a loss back in 2023. And in 2024, of course, prices of silver went up. We recognized that in the model, and that was the main reason behind the revaluation of the silver stream this year. So when you put those together, you get a positive effect of $83.5 million, which is very important. But it really has nothing to do with the operations, and it's basically just accounting for the market of the silver stream. And lastly, perhaps, you might be interested in knowing why we had a $229.9 million increase in profit before taxes, but when you go down to the profit after tax, it goes down to only $28 million. So you might ask yourself, well, what happened there? And again, in 2023, we had this very unusual situation where we had positive income tax. In other words, the profit after tax was higher than the profit before taxes. And I'm sure you remember that last year when I explained this, I said that this was due to the revaluation of the Mexican peso back then. This time around, we had a devaluation because what you do here is you take into consideration not the average exchange rate but the spot exchange rate prevailing at the end of the month, in this case June. So you see a more normal situation, right, where you see a negative income tax and if you look at the The percentage that that represents of income before taxes, you will see that it's approximately 32%, which is very close to the statutory tax rate in Mexico, which is 30%. So we're back to a more normal situation this quarter, and you also have negative mining rights. In other words, that we are accounting for payments of the mining right here. And I would say those are the main highlights. Too many extraordinary events happened last year that did not happen this year, which is good. And if we can just move very quickly to the cash flow on page 27. Just comment on the first column in the bottom. As you can see, we closed June with $691 million, which compared to our opening balance this year of $534.6 million, that meant an increase of $156 million. So it's nice to see that we're net cash positive. Main cash generator was, of course, the operations in the very first line. which generated almost $548 million, 70% above last year. Main uses of cash, of course, CAPEX, purchase of property, plant, and equipment, which was $170 million, 25% below last year. Other important uses of cash were working capital and this was mainly due to the increase in inventories that I explained. And of course income tax and the profit sharing which we paid during the year. Remember here we're talking about provisional tax payments that we make on a monthly basis. Dividends paid, we paid the final dividend for 2023 in May this year, $31 million. And then we're returning money to the Juanisipio partners. So the last contributions that we made to the project were not done as equity but rather as loans because we knew that once the mine was open it was going to be generating you know, an important amount of cash flow initially. So we're starting to pay back the loans that were granted by the shareholders, in this case MAG, and we paid $43 million. Of course, Fresenjo was paid close to $57 million. That's basically, I would say, the main highlights of the financials.
Just coming to an end and a few words about the outlook before coming to your Q&A. As you can see, I mean, we have silver production trending down, but as we mentioned, I mean, glad to see Saucito on a better performance this year, as well as Julian Baines contributing to the silver production. And with the exploration results, I mean, we can have better certainty that that could continue in the following years. Gold production, a bit softer in the following years. But as we mentioned, I mean, we have a possibility to bring some brownfield production increases, specifically in the Herradura district. lead and zinc higher production as we continue to go down on the Fresno District mines. Therefore, if we see this slide together with what we have here in terms of the timeline for the projects, we will see that that brownfield production could be able to fill some gaps while we bring on stream Rodeo on 27, Tajitos 28, Orizibo 29, and Guanajuato on 30. Of course, we continue to... develop these projects, revise this timeline, and giving you up on how those look in the following years. In terms of CAPEX, we continue to revise all of the budgeted CAPEX, and therefore we are coming down to 410 this year. We maintain somehow at the 500 level the following years of CAPEX, but with the focus of cash preservation, I mean that's something that we do across all of our operations. Some closing remarks. Continue enhancing our safety culture across all of our operations. We saw the indexes trending positively down. reinforcing and instilling the culture in all of our minds. Focus on cost control, mitigation in this still inflationary environment that we continue to operate on. As Mario mentioned, I mean increased returns through the dividend policy that we have. reflected by better performance of our operations, but also higher metal prices. Brownfield, we've discussed, and also will be good placed in order to capitalize on the future growth of our projects and continue to evolve prospects in our portfolio. And with that, we can go to our Q&A. Thank you.
Jason. Jason. Just to Jason Farquhar, Bank of America, two, I guess, related questions. So the projects seem to be taking a long time, and is that because of bottlenecks within Fresnillo, or is it a broader issue in terms of Mexico? I feel like I've been looking at Oresivio on that pyramid for many, many, many years now, and it's still... PAP, pre-feasibility, whatever it is. So is it Mexico? Is it Fresnillo? And how are we thinking about the new regime in Mexico? What does it mean for your business?
I think it's both, I would say. And if we want to go to some particular issues, that is one of the projects, and also contrast that with the current environment in Mexico, we can find both as some reasons to this delay in bringing on the projects. In particular, Rodeo, you know, and we had a long time in order to concrete a deal with the community there. Finally, we did it a month, month and a half ago. We are expecting to come into the project and do the exploration, advance from inferred to indicated and continue with the feasibility. Orizibo, challenging project, definitely. Location, quite difficult. That would mean some challenges on the permitting side, but also particularly to the project because the metallurgy was the key in order to unlock that and bring that project efficiently. Something that we are doing, we are testing albion and bioleach as well. and that is giving us clarity for the project in the coming years and continue to evolve. Nonetheless, on the permitting side, we will continue to work there because that's one of the main challenges. And then Tajitos, we started a bit later on the exploration front. That project continues to grow. and advancing at a good pace. And then Guanajuato is just a recent exploration discovery. All of this in order to say that we should realize that also in Mexico, the permitting process that used to last probably 18 months to two years, now it's taking longer as well. So with this new administration coming in the following few months, we have high hopes that through dialogue and with the objectives of this administration in terms of economic growth, specifically in areas in which mining can contribute, we can be much better on the same line.
Where are we with the potential ban on open pits?
Well, that's, of course, something that continues to be in the environment in Mexico. We continue to have an open dialogue with many actors in the upcoming administration. We believe that we have all of the arguments in order to continue with this kind of mining in Mexico. It would be a... Major, probably, disruption if that was to pass, not only for open pit mining, but for some other industries like cement and construction materials and the likes. So we believe that we can make a case in order to maintain and continue with open pin binding in Mexico. But that's something that we're still discussing. Thank you. Thank you, Jason.
Yes. Thanks, Jason. Good morning. Richard Hatch from Berenberg. A few questions. Firstly, just on cost savings, when we sat here about six months ago, you outlined about a $50 million target to bring costs down. I just wonder if you might be able to give us an update on how that's going. I can see you've made some good improvements sort of in this first half, but just to kind of give us a benchmark, that's the first one.
Yes, a few words, Thomas and Daniel, on the cost initiatives across the mines.
I don't know if you can hear well. On the northern district, in Herradura is where we have our higher expenditure base. We are setting the foundations for what we expect to capture in the second quarter. In actual result, we haven't seen many actual savings during the first half of the year. However, we expect that to improve during the second half. On the other side, in Cienega and in San Julián, we have significant reductions in terms of cost. We have improved our efficiencies, but also, in particular in Cienega, the contractor base has dropped almost 50%. And in San Juliano, we're also right now right-sizing the operation because of the end-of-life of DOB. So also significant cost reductions on those two operations.
Likewise, in the central region, Fresnillo, we're seeing good improvements in cost all across the cost items region. contractors, human resources, operation materials. So Fresnillo is a good success story. Also, Juanisipio, we are really capturing the benefits of a new operation with all the productivity and And, you know, good grace, capitalizing on that. Saucito is still a bit challenging. Like I said in my presentation, we are continuing focusing there. We want to decrease the contractor base, as we have done in Saucito and I'm sorry, in Fresnillo. So we want to translate that to Saucito. So basically I would say those are the main focus. Operating materials, contractors, rationalizing contractors, and also being very disciplined in our capital allocation. We are reviewing the CAPEX for the year. So we really, really... use the minimum required for the years on a cash-preserving strategy.
Can I just follow up on Fresneo in particular? Yes. So if I look at the cost first half, the $115 a tonne, that's up about 25% year-on-year, and I understand you had a challenging half. Previously that mine's been below $100 a tonne. you know, operating costs, right? So what is the plan to get that mine to medium term? And the same goes for Juan Esipio. Can you give us sort of any kind of clarity over guidance as to what kind of dollar per ton target we need to be looking for for Juan Esipio? And then, sorry, just on Fresneo, you mentioned about the narrow vein system. Is that the new normal for Fresneo and, you know, What are the opportunities to improve production from that mine?
That's what we are finding, like I said. As we go deeper and westbound of the mine, we're finding narrower veins. So that's impacting our volume, right? We are reviewing that. I wouldn't say at this point it's what we should expect going forward. In the short term, that's the condition. We are starting the case, and we are having an impact on the output. That impacting our per ton cost, right? In dollar terms, savings are there. We are doing what we need to do to keep the spend stable. under control. So I would say at this point it's about the output more than the dollars, right? So, yeah, that's what I can comment. And then your question on Juanisipo, I didn't understand.
It was just, if I look at the cost, $120 a tonne first half what is a good should we expect costs to trend back down to that below 100 or long term I get you and then same for Juan Esipio same for Juan Esipio Juan Esipio will have a full year operation this year so better place to give you an expectation about the cost for the following year Sorry, and last one, just if I look at, there's been a couple of really unfortunate incidents with heap leeches this year, one in Turkey, one smaller one perhaps in Canada, but still some operational issues with heap leeches. Are you seeing increased focus on kind of safety, operational performance from, you know, regulatory bodies just given a couple of pretty bad safety incidences at heap leeches?
Many of them.
I've seen in the market some of the issues you mentioned, and we are very strict about geotechnical controls and the operational controls on our heathlets. We don't foresee any problems given the levels that we have. The main issue with heathlets is about the creation of layers of material intermediate, and we don't have that problem because we don't have clays, we don't have fines on our heaths, so we don't expect any kind of issues on our operations.
Shall we see if there is a question online?
Thank you. If you are dialed into the call and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. And as a reminder, please ensure your device is unmuted when called upon to ask your question. Your first question is from the line of Daniel Major from UBS. Please go ahead. Hi there. Can you hear me okay?
Okay. Yes. Great. Hi. Thanks for the questions. Yeah, the first one just on the cost theme, again, it looks like your weighted average inflation on costs is about 6.5%. Where would you expect that to trend in the second half of the year? Would you expect unit costs or absolute level of costs, maybe absolute level of costs? across the business to be stable or lifting with expectation you get some better gold volumes in the second half. That's the first question.
When you say 6.5% cost inflation, of course you're talking about the combination of both the inflation on a standalone basis and also the foreign exchange effect, the peso. And as you can see, the peso is currently trading at 18.6 pesos per dollar. So I think that's going to help us quite a bit during the second half of the year. In terms of standalone inflation, like I said, I think it's being subdued now. We're not seeing those increases in the unit cost of operating materials and the like. So I think we will have a better second half of the year in terms of – of cost production at a consolidated level. I would even dare to say we might see a reduction in dollar terms due to the devaluation of the Mexican peso.
Okay, thanks. So total adjusted production costs, potential for it to trend lower in the second half on a group level, is that the message?
That is correct.
Okay, thanks. And then the next question, which is a discussion topic we've had on this call for a number of years. Yeah, if it was near-grade, still massive gap between mine-grade and reserve-grade. I mean, is there any confidence you can give us that this asset will achieve anywhere near reserve-grade anytime soon?
Well, I try to explain what the current issues that we are facing with great, you know, having to do with dilution coming from the ground and the narrower veins. That's particular to this study. to this year. Second, there is also a metal price impact. The long-term price in the calculation of the reserve is lower than the month price that we used to upgrade our short-term models. So that's a difference also that we need to reconcile. And in the long term, like I said, we are reviewing our reconsideration models to find out whether there is another factor that we are not accounting properly for, design of the stoves in terms of the geometries or dilution pertaining to the particular mining method. Of all that, we are starting to try to close that gap. That's what I would comment.
There's still a pending issue then, yes.
Yeah, I mean, to be honest, it's not really been this year. It's been an issue for many years. You've achieved far too high levels of dilution, so I kind of push back slightly on the saying you've had specific issues this year. It's been something that's been going on for quite some time. But I guess let's see. Okay, and then... The final question, I mean, maybe to Jason's kind of point, you don't sort of really have many projects you can actually pull the trigger on to move forward with growth. You've got a flat to declining production profile, but you've also got quite a strong balance sheet. Is M&A something that you would look to to try and replace some of the depletion and add some growth to the business?
Yeah, M&A is a way that we are exploring in a more formal and systematic way, definitely. I mean, you may have seen an announcement that we are including and strengthening the team on that regard with a business development executive there. And therefore, we're taking a systematic look in order to explore that alternative growth strategy. But also, in order to address that in a short, medium term, that downward trend production, as we mentioned, I mean, we are exploring with more attention details the brownfield projects that we have in Herradura, as we mentioned, and Daniel talked about those underground possibilities, but also synergies in terms of increasing production in the Fresnillo district. Yes.
Okay. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Thank you, Dan. Thank you.
Do you see potential for further reductions in 2025 and 2026?
We didn't catch the whole question. Sorry.
Can you hear me right now? Yeah.
Later. Your question again, please.
Marina has dropped off the call. We'll just pause for a moment and see if she calls back in.
Okay. Can we take your question?
Patrick Jones, JP Morgan. Just a quick one. You mentioned that about 70% of electricity is now coming from renewable sources. Your target for 2030 is 75%, so it's a pretty small margin from there of the next five, six years. What's kind of the hurdle to getting that to 100%?
It's more on the administrative processes that we have in Mexico in order to include more of our operations to the possibility of the source that we have in terms of clean energies. So that administrative process more than really producing from other sources. No, the source is there. It's just the administrative process. Great, thank you. Okay, well, thank you very much all for joining this call. Thank you.