Grainger plc

So good morning everyone and welcome to Grainger's full year results. Once again we have delivered an excellent performance as we continue to deliver strong growth in our earnings, in our income and in our margin. With high occupancy and a Grainger product which continues to deliver for customers and shareholders. So the agenda this morning is that I will take you through the highlights. Rob will take you through the financial results, including our compelling growth to come and our conversion to REIT status. And then I'll go through our investment case, the strength of our market, and give you a quick insight into one of our new openings. And I will explain how we're well positioned for the changes to renting that are due to come in from next May and how we are driving shareholder value. We'll then have time for Q&A with members of the senior leadership team. So I'm pleased to tell you that Grainger is now the UK's leading residential REIT. Feels quite good to say that. We are a built-to-rent investor operator with a sector-leading portfolio of high-quality homes in the best location. Our fully integrated operational platform enhanced by technology is capable of scaling and this operational platform gives us a real competitive advantage in a sector with high customer interface and where operational excellence is a barrier to entry. Our investment case of a real estate asset class that delivers inflation linking returns is proven. As you can see here, consistently tracking wage growth and as is our proven strategy. We continue to deliver earnings growth to our shareholders and great homes to our customers. So looking at our earnings growth, we continue to target 60 million of earnings in full year 26 and 72 million by full year 29. And that's a 50% growth from full year 24. There are two simple reasons. We have sustainable rental growth outlook and we have strong underlying fundamentals. And our strong earnings growth will be delivered after absorbing higher interest rates. We're expecting rental growth to continue at three to three and a half percent, and we have a resilient customer base to support this. We have strong underlying market fundamentals with regulatory certainty and no rent controls, and growing demand and constrained supply. We're reducing debt, which Rob will cover later, and we have top-line growth and we are improving margin. So turning now to the highlights of our results, we've delivered another outstanding performance. Our net rental income is up 12%. Our like-for-like rental growth is up 3.6%. And we've delivered 12% earnings growth and 10% dividend growth. And our NTA, our asset value, has remained resilient at 298 pence per share. We continue to deliver operational excellence. We've delivered high occupancy at 98.1% and we've secured strong customer retention at 61%. And we have good customer affordability. On average, our customers are paying 28% of their income on rent, which is below the market average. And we are delivering a sector-leading gross to net at 25%, that's a 75% rental margin. So overall, an excellent set of financial and operational results. We continue to optimise our portfolio through sales of older or non-core assets and our investment in our new products. We have recycled 1.9 billion of assets since the start of our strategy, and we've sold 640 million since September 22. We've been selling in line with valuations and proving the accuracy of valuations. And importantly, we have over 900 million in non-core assets to fund our future growth and our deleveraging. We're a highly cash generative business with over 200 million in operational cash flows each year. And as we recycle out of this low yielding non-core assets, we secure attractive income accretion. We have a very clear capital allocation strategy. We are always focused on maximising returns for shareholders. Our current priority is to fund our committed pipeline of 343 million, and there's just 130 million remaining to invest. And it is this committed pipeline which will deliver our earnings growth to 72 million by full year 29, a 35% increase from today, and as a reminder, a 50% increase from full year 24. Then we are deleveraging in line with plan. Our debt is fixed at low rates to full year 29, so this deleveraging will support our earnings growth and ensure an optimal capital structure. And as we continue to recycle, we can look at stabilised acquisitions. And we have also our secured and highly attractive forward-funded and direct development opportunities. So we have further opportunities in our planning and legals out of pipeline. We have all these opportunities for future growth and of course we will assess these against other opportunities to return capital to shareholders. We have a capital allocation strategy delivering for shareholders in the short, in the medium and in the long term. So turning to our portfolio and pipeline, 3.5 billion, that's over 11,000 homes, and our portfolio of regulated tenancies is just over half a billion, and our future pipeline is 1.3 billion. Our committed pipeline is immediate. Of the £343 million, there was only £130 million to invest, and indeed last week we completed on 374 homes in Bristol, one of our strongest cities, and with more homes being delivered in our pipeline in London and Guildford. We have a highly attractive secured pipeline for further growth, including our strategic JVs. And we have a portfolio of sites going through the planning process. So we have optionality for the future. And we have clear visibility on our earnings growth and our EBITDA margin expansion. Our growth story is compelling. Yes, this is my favourite side. We've delivered extraordinary growth over the last 10 years. We've been consistent in our delivery, growing our net rental income on average 14% per annum. Our EPRA earnings have grown dramatically through the development of our platform and the efficiency it delivers. Our EBITDA margin has improved from 19% to 56% with more to come. So this momentum is continuing with strong growth in our income, in our earnings, and with further EBITDA margin expansion. So in summary, we've delivered a strong performance. Our operational highlights are our conversion to a REIT. 98.1% occupancy achieved, robust rental growth secured at 3.6% and now we have the Renters' Rights Bill passed. We have real clarity on our future regulatory environment and no rent controls. We've delivered a strong financial performance, a 12% growth in our net rental income, 12% earnings growth and a strong sales performance and a 10% dividend increase. We have a very clear focus on how to drive returns for our shareholders. We're focused on maintaining occupancy and rental growth. We're focused on delivering strong compounding earnings growth. We're focused on cost efficiency and reducing net debt. And of course, continuing to deliver high quality homes and great customer service. And I'll now hand over to Rob to take you through the detail.

Thank you Helen and good morning everybody. Today I'm going to run through the financial performance for the year and outline the very strong earnings growth that we have to come. FY25 has been another period of excellent growth, demonstrating Granger's resilience and our market leading position. We've continued to deliver a strong operational performance with like-for-like rental growth of 3.6% and occupancy at 98%. Overall, total net rents continued their strong growth up 12%. This resulted in strong earnings growth with EPRA earnings up 12% and we're still targeting our 60 million guidance for the coming year and a 35% increase to 72 million by FY29. Adjusted earnings were broadly flat at 91 million as the sales profits from our reducing regulated tenancy business are replaced with rental income from our pipeline. Our dividend per share increased by 10% to 8.3p, and our per entier was resilient in the period at 298p. Now, looking at the income statements in more detail. Our overall like-for-like rental growth was strong at 3.6%. Stabilised gross to net was again flat at 25%, demonstrating our ongoing focus on cost efficiency. Overhead costs were up 4% in the year in line with wage inflation and looking forward, we're targeting 2 million of cost savings with a 1 million benefit in FY26. So overall, this will mean that overheads will not grow for the next two years. Interest costs increase largely due to lower levels of capitalised interest and a slightly higher average interest rate during the year. Upper earnings continued their strong growth trajectory up 12%, and as a reminder, now we're a REIT, this will be our key earnings metric going forwards. As expected, sales profits were lower at 37 million, in line with the reduction in the regulated portfolio size, and our sales are performing well and in line with book. Other adjustments include derivative valuation movements and a fire safety provision, which reflects a revision of cost estimates. Now, looking at the moving parts of our 12% increase in our net rent for the period. Strong occupancy and like-for-like rental growth of 3.6% contributed £2 million. And this was driven by strong performances in both PRS at 3.4%, which is stabilising back at long-run averages of 3% to 3.5%, and our regulated portfolio of 6.6%. The strong lease-up performance of our recent pipeline deliveries has contributed an additional £18 million of net rent. Our asset recycling programme offset this growth by £6 million. Looking forwards, we'd expect rental growth to continue in line with the long-term average of 3% to 3.5% in FY26. With the occupational markets back to normalised levels, we expect to see some seasonality in rental growth return, with half two stronger than half one growth. This chart shows the key movements in NTA over the course of the year. Our upper NTA was maintained at 298p per share. Net rents and fees added 18p, with overheads and finance costs offsetting this by 11p. Overall, our portfolio valuation for the period was up 0.7% and the PRS portfolio saw 1.1% valuation growth with ERV growth of 3.2% and a modest outward yield shift on some assets. Valuations on the REGS portfolio were down 0.6% demonstrating their resilience and further details of the valuation can be seen on page 45 in the appendices of this presentation. Now turning to net debt. Net debt was broadly flat during the year at £1.46 billion in line with our plans. Operational cash flows remained strong with £205 million generated and with disposals contributing £169 million net of fees. The investment in our built rent portfolio has now started to moderate as we work our way through the committed pipeline, and there was 133 million invested during the year, with a further 130 million spent on the pipeline and the majority of that being in FY26. In line with our previously discussed capital allocation strategy, we'll continue to generate sales at current levels. These proceeds will be used to fund the committed pipeline and then go towards lowering leverage by £300 to £350 million. Going forwards, we'd therefore expect net debt to remain broadly flat for the coming year before starting to deliver from FY27. And our balance sheet remains in great shape. Both net debt at 1.46 billion and LTV at 38% were broadly flat over the year in line with our plans. We maintain strong liquidity and a robust hedging profile with rates fixed in the mid 3% range. As previously highlighted, we plan to reduce our net debt by 300 to 350 million over the next four years as we continue to sell through our lower yielding non-core assets. We regard this as very deliverable given our continued strong performance on sales. This will see our net debt at around 1.1 billion and that will equate to around an 8 times net debt to EBITDA and an LTV of 30%, which we see is the right capital structure in this current interest rate environment. As net debt is brought down over the medium term, this will help mitigate the impact of rising finance costs as our low rate hedging rolls off, and that ensures continued strong earnings growth. REIT status has been a long term ambition since the start of our strategy and I'm pleased to say we successfully converted to a REIT back in September. The benefits to the business of being a REIT are substantial as we no longer have to pay corporation tax on the profits of our built to rent business and in the first year of FY26 alone, this is expected to generate 15 million of savings, with this increasing as we deliver further growth. We see the resilient growth that our residential business delivers as arguably the perfect fit for the REIT structure with no impact on our business model or our strategy. And we're firmly committed to delivering a strong progressive dividend. Now we're at a REIT, our dividend policy will be to distribute at least 80% of EPRA earnings. In FY26 and FY27 we'll have a REGS profits top up. Beyond that, we'd expect the dividend to be fully covered by our EPRA earnings. This will see a mid single digit growth over the next four years as we absorb the full impacts of interest rate increases. As a reminder, beyond the higher interest rate headwind, we're a business that will deliver strong organic earnings and dividend growth of around 5%, simply as a result of our 3% to 3.5% rental growth and operating leverage, and that's even without any further growth in scale. It's been a strong year of earnings growth in FY25, but there is a lot more to come. The lease-up of our recent deliveries, as well as the remaining committed pipeline, will deliver an additional £24 million of rent over the next four years. As a reminder, this pipeline only requires a further £130 million of capex to deliver. This strong top line growth will ensure we continue to deliver very strong earnings growth and we're targeting APRA earnings guidance of 60 million next year and the 50% increase in five years from FY24 to 72 million in FY29. We see this growth as exceptionally strong, particularly as it's delivered through a period in which we'll absorb the full rebasing of our interest cost to market levels, which we currently assume to be 5.5%. The bridge on the slide breaks down the key drivers, including the benefits of like-for-like rental growth assumed at 3% to 3.5%, the yield pickup from recycling out of our lower-yielding REGS assets into our build-to-rent portfolio, scale efficiencies with EBITDA margins growing to over 60% and the mitigating impacts of reducing debt on higher interest rates. This growth is locked in with upside from delivery of further pipeline schemes or stabilised acquisitions. So to summarise, we've continued to deliver a very strong operational performance with rental income increasing by 12% and EPRA earnings also up by 12%. This growth is being delivered from a position of real financial strength. Our liquidity and our balance sheet are strong, giving us the flexibility through disposals to reduce our debt by £300 to £350 million over the medium term as we reinvest into our committed pipeline. We maintain our upper earnings guidance of £60 million by FY26 and £72 million by FY29 from the delivery of just our committed pipeline alone, whilst also fully absorbing the headwind of higher interest rates. This earnings growth is a major component of our medium term total returns target of 8%, which we see as a low volatility return and which remains unchanged, assuming constant yields. And at the current share price, this would equate to a 12% return. With that, I now hand you back to Helen.

Thank you, Rob. In this section, I'm going to go through the five fundamentals of our investment case and then look at the performance of one of our new openings and also the Renters' Rights Act and our shareholder value creation model. Our investment case is compelling. We invest in a low-risk, low-volatility asset class with resilient and proven growth. We're in a market with exceptional fundamentals of housing supply shortages and growing demand. Our customer base is strong with a positive outlook for rental growth. And we now have certainty around our regulation following Royal Assent of the Renters' Rights Act. We have a sector-leading operational platform supported by technology, and this gives us great data and insights. And I'll now look at each of these in a little more detail. So residential is a low-risk investment with sustainable growth. Yes, it's lower yielding than some asset classes, but that is because it's lower risk. It has consistent year-on-year rental growth. and it has delivered above inflation rental growth. And residential rents and capital values have outperformed commercial real estate. This is underpinned by a supply shortage of homes. Our market fundamentals are strong. A shortage of supply and a growing population. We have in this country an estimated shortage of 4.3 million homes, and of the 5.6 million private rental homes, still only 2.5% are owned by professional built-to-rent landlords. Private landlords continue to exit the market, reducing supply, and fewer homes are being built. Recent revisions of the household growth show a 10% increase in household in the 10 years to 2032 and rental demand is set to grow by 20% in the 10 years to 2031. The structural supply and demand imbalance that underpins our sector has never been more acute. Our customer base is strong. On average, a Granger customer earns around £38,000 per annum and the average Granger household income is £62,000 per annum. Our core demographic is in the 20 to 40 age range, which tends to see the fastest earnings growth. Our customer base is very diverse and as a reminder we cap our student numbers. This diverse customer base and healthy affordability gives us confidence on future rental growth and occupancy. Now last month the Renters' Rights Bill achieved royal assent. This means we now have certainty on the regulatory outlook and importantly it rules out rent control. We contributed our insights to government throughout the process. The Act is designed to raise standards and we at Grainger are already delivering high standards. The proposed standards are consistent with our business model and our operational platform. And our customer-centric approach is embedded in Granger's business. So the five key changes here are the abolition of no-fault evictions, annual market rent reviews, pet-friendly policies, open-ended tenancies, and decent home standards. And these align with our business model or current practices. The changes in our processes to comply with the Act are already well advanced. We know the main measures will be introduced from the 1st of May 2026 and we're ready. So importantly, we now have certainty that rent controls do not form part of this important Act. The final piece of our compelling investment case is our operational platform and how we deliver operational excellence. We've grown our offer, supported by technology, and this gives us great insights into what our customers want. In our operational excellence, we have moved from instinct to insight. We use AI-driven sentiment analysis to inform our operations. And the data tells us what's important to our customers and what they want from a home. Now, this strengthens both our leasing and our customer retention. Our intuitive customer app as well as our friendly on-site residence team drive our excellent engagement and performance scores. And we sit ahead of many big brands in customer satisfaction and net promoter scores. Building trust is no small feat for a landlord. Now turning to a recent case study. Our latest opening in London is Serafina at Fortune Stock and it's opposite Canning Town Transport Interchange. Now, our commitment to this scheme was some time ago. However, even with outward yield movement, rental growth has more than compensated. It's a high quality scheme and it was delivered into our best letting season, which is late summer. And we allow 12 months to lease up in our underwriting. But the lease up here in the first couple of months takes it to 88% let. Rental growth is ahead of underwriting. And the scheme forms part of three buildings. Argo, which was launched in 2017. Nautilus, which was launched in 2023. And Serafina. And whilst there is a slight rental difference, our cluster strategy delivers consistent service. What I'm so proud of is that the rent differential between Argo and Serafina is only £60 a month, and that is evidence of the low depreciation and resilience of our product. Unlike other real estate asset classes, residential has lower depreciation and greater resilience. As a reminder, Argo is eight years old. All refresh costs have gone through the gross net, showing its resilience and lack of depreciation. Residential investment run well offers a true net yield. Grainger's shareholder value creation model is simple and clear. We're investing in high quality rental homes in great locations with strong demand and this investment is low risk. We have inflation linking rental growth and the efficiency of a sector leading operational platform. We are expanding our EBITDA margin and we have strong growth opportunities secured for now and the future. Our growth is funded. We have demonstrated our track record of disposals. We have a strong balance sheet and we are lowering leverage. So what this means is that this proven model is built to deliver shareholders excellent risk-adjusted returns. Thank you. And I invite you to ask questions, and I'll be joined by Rob Hudson, our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Keeveney, our Director of Land and Development, and Eliza Patterson, our Director of Operations and Asset Management, and other senior leaders in the room. So anyone listening in, you can submit questions through the webcast, but we're going to take questions in the room first. Chris, I've got my notepad because I know it'll be a three-parter.