Harbour Energy plc

Good morning and welcome to Harbour Energy 2025 full year results. Today's presentation will be hosted by Linda Cook, CEO, Alexander Crane, CFO and Nigel Hearn, COO. After the presentation, we will take your questions. Linda, please go ahead.

Great. Thank you, Dan. Good morning, all, and welcome to our 2025 full-year results call. I'm Linda Cook, the CEO of Harbor Energy, and as Dan said, joining me for the presentation today are Alexander Cranor, CFO, and Nigel Hearn, the Chief Operating Officer. Before we turn to results, I do want to first just acknowledge recent geopolitical events which are driving extreme commodity price volatility and raising concerns over energy security. In some ways, similar to where we were just about the same time last year with Liberation Day upon us, governments and businesses around the world coming to grips with the impacts of a wide range of new tariffs and trade agreements. And of course, not that long ago, before that, we had the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that continues to this day. and before that, a global pandemic, all in the last five to six years. These are all reminders that we live and make decisions within an uncertain and at times volatile global environment. In response, it's important in a business like ours that we balance the short term with the long term and that we remain focused on the things we can control. Operational excellence, capital discipline, managing risk, and creating value for our shareholders. So turning to the agenda, I'm going to start by taking you through the highlights from what was a very good year for Harbor Energy in 2025 and some changes to our portfolio. Nigel will then cover operations, including how we're driving performance, Alexander will follow with the financial results, 2026 guidance, and a cash flow outlook for the near to midterm, all updated for our recent transactions, and also an outline of our new distribution policy. And then it's back to me to wrap up, leaving plenty of time for questions. So turning to my first slide, Harbor has grown from zero to more than 450,000 barrels per day over the last decade. driven by disciplined M&A and reinvesting in the acquired assets to add value. During that time, we repeatedly demonstrated our ability to identify and secure strategic transactions, and after completion, to safely and successfully integrate the acquired businesses and organizations. While past acquisitions, including Wintershaw Day in 2024, were focused on building scale and diversification, Our more recent ones have been targeted towards strengthening the portfolio, making it more resilient and enhancing longevity. Perhaps the best example is the acquisition of log exploration in the U.S. Gulf, completed ahead of schedule just a few weeks ago. The log assets, oil-weighted and all under operational control, helped to secure harbor's overall production at between 475,000 to 500,000 barrels per day to the end of the decade. And while overall production stays broadly stable, as you'll see later, replacing the declining U.K. volumes with growth in the U.S. with its attractive fiscal framework means that we'll see a significant increase over time in cash flow. So turning first to look back to 2025, as I said, another strong year for Harbor Energy, operationally, financially, and strategically. We achieved record production at 474,000 barrels per day. It was up more than 80% on the prior year. And with unit OPEX at $13 per barrel, our margins were strong. This, along with strong capital discipline and cost control, resulted in materially improved free cash flow and demonstrated our ability to navigate volatile commodity prices. We also had good momentum on our growth projects, including the transfer of operatorship of the major Zama development in Mexico from Pemex, the national oil company, to Harbor. and we continued to improve the overall quality of the portfolio through M&A. And let me just turn to that now. In December, we announced three transactions, each of which advances our strategy and strengthens our portfolio. First, we agreed the sale of our mature, higher-cost Indonesian producing assets and the Stald Tuna development project for $215 million, improving our portfolio quality and accelerating value. We also announced the $170 million acquisition of Waldorf, a small UK producer that brings around $900 million of value through tax losses. In addition, we unlocked $350 million of trapped cash upon completion, more than covering the purchase price. Combining the benefits of Waldorf with the great work by our team in Aberdeen to reduce costs and improve efficiency means we've materially enhanced the resilience and free cash flow outlook of our business in the UK. The proceeds from the Indonesia sale, along with the near-term cash flow, Uplift from Waldorf helped fund our entry into the U.S. Gulf through the acquisition of LOG. As we said in the announcement at the time of this transaction, we're really excited about the addition of a strategic position in the U.S. deep water. With LOG, we get a high-quality growth portfolio in one of the most prolific oil and gas-producing basins in the world, along with one of the best teams in the Gulf, and we're more than thrilled to have them join our harbor team. So each transaction was strategic in its own way, and collectively they have a material impact on the overall quality of our portfolio. So the next slide takes us to a snapshot of Harbor today, and I'll illustrate that point about the improved quality of the portfolio here. With the divestment of Vietnam in 2024, the announced sale of most of our Indonesia assets, and our entry into the U.S., our geographic footprint is shrinking, and the portfolio's center of gravity is shifting to the west. We've divested from mature positions in Southeast Asia with declining production and high unit costs, acquired five years ago through the premier oil transaction, and added strategic positions in Norway, Mexico, Argentina, and now the U.S., all with significant running room from a subsurface point of view, demonstrating, I think, that portfolio management is alive and well within harbor. Like in the past, if we can't see a route to scale or the assets can't compete for capital in our portfolio, they become divestment targets. And with the log acquisition, the bar to compete internally for capital has got that much higher. The outcome is a higher quality portfolio with higher margins, and as Alexander will show, increasing free cash flow over time. He'll also talk about the new distribution policy details, which aim to strike a balance, enabling a sustainable dividend and resilient balance sheet across commodity price cycles, while supporting investment in future production and enabling shareholders to benefit as that cash flow growth materializes, or if, like today, we have an unexpected spike in commodity prices. Turning to my last slide, I've mentioned our shrinking geographic footprint, meaning that today we're focused on five key countries, Norway, the U.K., Argentina, Mexico, and the U.S. As you can see, these account for 90% of our company, however you cut it, production, cash flow, reserves, resources. As Nigel will explain, each of these countries has its role to play in Harbor, and while together they support flat production over the coming few years, the portfolio evolution continues, and that's hinted at in the bars on this page. While the U.K. is responsible for a third of our production today, it represents only a bit over 10% of our combined reserves and resources. With Norway production expected to be flattish, The U.K. decline is replaced by investing in projects in the Americas, the U.S., Mexico, and Argentina. And this, over time, has positive implications for after-tax margins and cash flow. So now over to Nigel, and he'll take you through each of these countries in more detail, followed by Alexander.

Good morning, and thank you, Linda. Today our portfolio is more focused, competitive, and resilient. Across the business, we're aligned on delivering against four key priorities to drive total shareholder return. Operating safely and reliably, expanding our margins through cost and capital efficiency, converting our resources into reserves and into production, profitably and competitively, and growing our free cash flow sustainably. I will shortly take you through how each of our core business units is delivering against those priorities, and how the actions we've taken over the past year has put us on a path to stronger, longer, higher quality cash generation. First, and always first, is safety. Nothing matters more than protecting our people, our assets, and the communities in which we operate. We did see a slight increase in our recordable injury rate in 2025 as we expanded into new countries, but we continue to be a top performer in personal safety. In process safety, we delivered a reduction in Tier 1 and Tier 2 loss of containment events, but unfortunately recorded one Tier 1 event in Mexico. Safety is an area we will never be satisfied. We actively promote the learnings from our incidents, and is strengthening our focus on risk assessment, prevention and assurance activities. We've also delivered a step change reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions intensity, creating a more resilient portfolio. 2025 was a year of record production, delivering at the very top of our guidance. This reflects a full year's contribution from Wintershaw Aldea but also a strong year of execution across our expanded portfolio. We brought new wells online and completed new projects ahead of schedule in Norway, the UK and Argentina. Reliability across our asset base continued to be high at greater than 90%. And we made structural improvements in our cost base, with unit OPEX down 20%, driven by lower cost barrels from winter shaldea, Actions taken in the UK to reduce our costs by 10%, our exit from the higher cost Vietnam volumes, and we captured early synergies as we leveraged that increased scale. Together, these actions improved our earnings and cash margins, strengthening our competitiveness and resilience. Turning to our core business units. As the second largest Norwegian gas exporter to Europe, and Harbour's largest producer, our Norway business is central to our long-term cash flow. Our strong pipeline of infrastructure-led developments sustain profitable production into the next decade. At the end of 2025, we completed the Harbour operated Maria Phase 2 project, the first of six developments due online in the next 24 months. This project was delivered on time and within budget and is performing well. Our operator, Devalin North, is on track for completion mid-2026. All subsea infrastructure was successfully installed in 2025 and development drilling is underway. We're also maturing our next set of projects and we continue to explore. Earlier this week, we announced the Omega Solar Discovery. where we have a 24.5% share. The estimated size of the discovery is between 25 and 89 million barrels of oil equivalent of gross recoverable volumes, exceeding our pre-drill estimates and extending the Snorre field's lifetime beyond 2040. Our Norway business continues to exemplify our ability to profitably and efficiently turn resource to reserves to production. Despite continued fiscal headwinds, the UK delivered a strong performance in 2025. This was underpinned by high production efficiency and strong turnaround execution at our operated assets, structurally lowering our cost base. We shortened cycle times through near-field development and delivered best-in-class capital efficiency through the 2025 Wells program. Jocelyn South was brought on stream in March, just three months after discovery. Strong subsurface performance at Talbot and successful intervention campaigns led to the J area producing at rates not seen for over a decade. We are now bringing that same level of focus and discipline to our UK decommissioning programme. In addition, the Waldorf acquisition, as Linda said, once completed, will deliver meaningful financial synergies. As a result of these actions, we've materially strengthened the UK's cash flow outlook. Now turning to the Americas. Argentina provides both low-cost and long-term production, underpinned by our significant reserves and resource position. Today, the majority of our production comes from the conventional CMA1 licence. Phoenix is a great example of the tie-back opportunities that supports the stable, low-cost production from this asset. We hold over 700 million barrels of oil equivalent of 2C resources, primarily in the vast Vaca Muerta shale play. We are progressing the unconventional oil license at San Roque, with a 16-well program expected to start later this year. We are scaling up gas drilling at Ape, and our gas resource development will be optimized through our participation in the Southern Energy LNG project. Where export permits and incentives are secured, 80% of the first vessel uptake is now contracted, and the fabrication of the spur line and conversion of the second vessel is underway. First LNG production remains on track for the end of 2027. We continue to focus on drilling and completions efficiency, as we increase the scale and pace of our Vaca Muerta development. Argentina is a cornerstone for future, flexible, and capital-efficient reserve replacement. Our newest core business unit, the Gulf of America, adds scale and growth through to the end of the decade. It is a 100% operated, oil-weighted portfolio centered around three deepwater hubs at Hudat, Buckskin and Leon Castile. Production is expected to double by 2028, supported by low break-even drilling targets at our production hubs and ramp up at Leon Castile. Combined with the attractive fiscal terms, we are adding high margin barrels that fuel free cash flow growth through to the end of the decade. and with more than 350 million barrels of oil equivalent of 2P reserves and 2C resources, plus half a billion barrels of prospective resources, and success in the recent bid round, we have lots of running room in this prolific oil and gas basin. Our team have a proven track record of profitably and competitively converting resource to production, ranking best in class, among global peers when it comes to development cycle time. They are also responsible for one-third of all discoveries made in the Gulf since 2014. Over the next three years, we expect to allocate around $400 million a year with 10 to 15 wells planned. This includes development wells with internal rates of return in excess of 40% and low-risk infrastructure-led exploration wells with a short cycle time to production if successful. The Gulf of America business unit is transformative and raises the bar for capital competition within Harbor. Finally, Mexico represents one of our most material long-term growth opportunities. Through the Zama and Khan shallow water hubs, we are building a scaled advantage business with tieback potential. As newly appointed operator of Zama, we've submitted a simplified phase development plan designed to lower break evens, improve returns and lower risk. At Khan in 2025, resource was upgraded by 50% to 150 million barrels of oil equivalent gross. Together, Zama and Khan have the potential to deliver reserves equivalent to more than two years of group production. As operator of both hubs, we have the opportunity to capture synergies across design, drilling and operations. Both projects are expected to enter feed this year. Subject to partner alignment, securing FPSOs and regulatory approval, we're targeting both to be FID ready within an 18-month horizon and possibly one project as early as year-end. We also see additional upside through the alignment with our Gulf of America business union, using key capabilities and talent that we now have to help successfully deliver Zama and Calm. Mexico builds long life, high margin oil exposure with strong operating control. So putting this all together, what does it mean for our CapEx and production outlook? We expect to spend $2 to $2.3 billion per year from 2027, which we believe is the right level given our portfolio and opportunity set. With over 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent of 2p reserves and resources, we will prioritize the most competitive projects, continuing to high-grade the portfolio. This level of investment allows us to sustain production between 475 and 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day through the end of a decade. During this period, operated CapEx rises to 60%, giving us more control over cost, schedule and performance. And while overall production remains stable, we are replacing the declining higher cost UK production with higher margin growth in the US, and over time, Mexico. We have a strong history of reserves replacement, and we expect that to continue. For 2026, we anticipate at least 150% reserves replacement, supported by the log and Waldorf additions. Historically, we've droned reserves through M&A. Going forward, More will come organically from our large, diverse 2C resource base. The quality of our reserves also improves. More oil-weighted, more operated, and increasingly positioned in lower cost, lower tax basins. In summary, we are and will continue to have a laser focus on operating safely, reliably, and with discipline. Expanding margins, lowering break-evens, and improving capital efficiency, converting resources into production profitably and predictably, and building a portfolio with scale, longevity, and rising free cash flow. This is how we continue to strengthen Harbor. I will now hand over to Alexander for the financial review.

Great. Thanks, Nigel. And again, good morning to everyone dialing in this morning. We've delivered another strong set of financial results reflecting a full year's contribution from Ventus Aldea, excellent operational performance, and strict capital discipline. As a result, we improved our operating margins. We generated 1.1 billion of free cash flow, beating our guidance for the year, and we reduced our net debt. At the end of last year, as Linda mentioned, we announced the Indonesia divestments and the UK Waldorf and US log acquisitions, materially improving our free cash flow outlook. We increased 2025 declared shareholder distributions to approximately 0.5 billion and also announced in December our intention to update our distribution policy, better aligning distributions to our cash flows. 2025 was marked by significant geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility, driving uncertainty in commodity markets. 2026 is proving no difference. Recent events in the Middle East have pushed spot prices higher, but concerns around oversupply persist with the possibility of materially lower prices from here. Against this backdrop, Harvard is well positioned, particularly following the log and Waldorf transactions. We have a large-scale, diverse portfolio, including byproducts with 40% of our production exposed to Brent and 40% to European gas, a structurally lower cost base, greater operational control, and investment-grade credit ratings supported by our prudent financial policy. As a reminder, we hedge two years forward, targeting 50% of economic exposure in year one and 30% in year two, targeting even a split between swaps and colors. This protects around half of our downside exposure while preserving meaningful upside participation. And we continue to hedge through the recent volatility this week, securing attractively structured colors, especially for European gas. Turning now to the income statement. Thanks to the hedging results, we realize prices broadly in line with global benchmarks for oil, despite slight grade differential on liquids and above benchmarks for our European gas. Revenue and adjusted EBITDAX increased by 65% and 77%, reflecting higher production and stronger gas realizations, partly offset by lower realized oil prices. Now, as Nigel outlined, we lowered our unit operating costs by 22% to $12.8 per BOE, despite the significantly weaker U.S. dollar. Net financial items reflected 0.5 billion of foreign exchange losses, partly offset by 0.2 billion of FX hedging gains. Profit before tax increased to 2.8 billion, or 3.4 billion on a adjusted basis. While we reported a loss after tax of 0.2 billion, driven by a more than 100% effective tax rate, adjusted profit after tax increased to 0.6 billion, up over 60%. Adjustments reflected three main items. 0.4 billion of impairments, including as a result of license exits and write-offs in our Mexico, North Africa, and CCS portfolios. 0.2 billion of intercompany FX losses, and 0.3 billion related to the UK EPL extension to 2030, the latter two already reported at over half-year results. The adjusted effective tax rate was 82% compared to 106% reported, more in line with the 78% statutory tax rates we now have in Norway and the UK. Turning to cash flow. During the period, we generated 7.3 billion of operating cash flow, invested 2.3 billion on total capital expenditure, and we paid 3.5 billion of cash taxes, substantially in the UK and Norway. This resulted in free cash flow generation of 1.1 billion, materially higher than in 2024, and significantly above what we expected at the outside of the year, once normalizing for commodity prices. This increase was driven by strong operational execution and rigorous capital discipline. Now turning to net debt on the next slide. Net debt reduced over the year to 4.4 billion. This reflects strong free cash flow of 1.1 billion, of which approximately 0.5 billion was returned to shareholders, with the balance going towards debt reduction. The impact of the weaker U.S. dollar, which increased the value of our pre-swap euro-denominated bonds by 0.6 billion, was partially offset by net 0.4 billion increase in cash balances from the issuance and repayments of subordinated loans. Post period end in February 2026, we completed the 3.2 billion log acquisition funded through a combination of 0.5 billion of equity and 2.7 billion of cash. including a $1 billion bridge facility and a $1 billion three-year term loan with existing relationship banks and a few new banks joining our syndicate. Now, as a result, net debt increased to $7.2 billion on completion. Having pre-funded 2026 maturities through senior and hybrid bond issuances in 2025, we now have greater flexibility around the timing of the bridge takeout. Consistent with our approach on previous acquisitions, we aim to delever using cash flow to repay the term loan over the next three years. We have updated our 2026 guidance to reflect log completion in February and the expected closing of the Waldorf and Indonesia transactions by end Q2. Production guidance is increased to between 475 and 500 KBOE per day, while unit OPEX is expected to be slightly higher at approximately 14.5 per BOE, with log and Waldorf increasing near-term unit OPEX. Here, log OPEX is expected to be $19 per BOE in 2026, then expected to decline to approximately $12 per BOE by 2030, primarily as a result of production increase impacting unit operating costs. Total capex is expected to increase to 2.2 to 2.4 billion, driven mainly by log, with also approximately 0.1 billion related to Waldorf. At $65 Brent and $11 European gas prices, we expect to generate approximately 0.6 billion of free cash flow, reflecting investment in the log portfolio and Waldorf synergies starting in 2027. Post completion of the large acquisition, we are now more sensitive to oil prices. A $5 per barrel move in the average oil price for the full year impacts free cash flow by some $170 million, while a $1 change in European gas prices impacts free cash flow by approximately $150 million. Forward curves are moving a bit this week, but if I use today's curves for the entire year, we would expect free cash flow to be closer to $1.4 billion. Now, looking through to the end of the decade, we expect materially increasing free cash flow, driven by the continued transformation of our portfolio. Higher-cost Southeast Asia exits and declining production in the UK are being replaced by higher-margin volumes, primarily in the US Gulf, alongside Norway and Argentina, and, over time, Mexico. We expect our effective tax rate to fall quite significantly, reflecting a strategic shift in profitable production towards lower-tax jurisdictions. In the U.S. Gulf, a 23% tax rate and the ability to depreciate the log purchase price means we expect to pay very little tax there in the coming years. In parallel, we expect CapEx to reduce to around $2.0 to $2.3 billion from 2027, reflecting continued portfolio high grading and disciplined capital allocation. As a result, free cash flow is expected to increase to $1 billion in 2028, mainly supported by increasing production in the U.S. Gulf and significant financial synergies from the U.K. Waldorf acquisition from 2027. Beyond that, we see further cash flow margin upside towards the end of the decade, driven by continued growth in the U.S. Gulf and as our Mexican projects come on the street. Let's turn now to the shareholder distributions and our revised policy. We communicated our intention to update our distributions policy in December and believe that now is the right time to pivot, linking shareholder distributions directly to cash flows and strengthening our capital allocation framework across the commodity price cycles. In the past, we've returned, on average, around 40% of free cash flow to shareholders each year. We are now targeting a return of 45% to 75% of annual free cash flows, including an initial base dividend of 16.1 cents per voting ordinary share, equivalent to approximately $300 million. By tying distributions directly to our cash flows, the new policy builds in the opportunity for shareholders to benefit from the growing cash flow outlook I just showed, and from periods of higher oil and gas prices like the ones we're experiencing today. So how will this work? Well, when leverage is above one times, we expect the payouts will be towards the lower end, enabling us to prioritize debt reduction. However, when leverage is below our target of one times, we expect distributions to be at the upper end of the payout range. As such, our new policy supports a sustainable base dividend across the commodity price cycles and allows us to share the upside with our shareholders, alongside near-term deleveraging and disciplined investment for future growth. In line with the new policy, the board has proposed a final dividend of 8.05 cents per share, equivalent to 150 million, representing a 45% free cash flow payout for 2025. For 2026, at $65 per barrel Brent and $11 per MCF European gas, we'd expect to distribute 300 million to shareholders. Then, just to illustrate the benefits of this updated policy, if we again use $75 per barrel and $14 MCF for the full year, closer to today's forward curve, a 45% minimum payout would get us to around $600 million of distributions. My final slide is a reminder of our three capital allocation priorities, which we look to balance through the cycle. First, we remain committed to maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet. Following every major transaction, we have consistently prioritized debt reduction, and with the additional leverage from recent transactions, we intend to do so again. Under our outlook price forecast, by 2028, supported by stronger free cash flow, we'd expect to have repaid a billion of debt, with leverage returning below our through-cycle target of less than one times. We also aim to maintain a robust and diverse portfolio. By investing 2 to 2.3 billion per year, we expect to be able to deliver increasingly high-margin cash-generative production through the end of the decade. And thirdly, we will continue to deliver attractive shareholder returns through the cycle. And as you heard today, at current forward prices, there is clear potential for significantly higher distributions this year. And over time, we expect to deliver material distribution growth in line with our growing free cash flow profile. So with that, thanks for everyone's attention, and I will hand you back to Linda for a close.

Thanks, Alexander. So in summary, we've had an excellent year operationally, financially, strategically, and we've carried that momentum into 2026 with the completion of the log acquisition and with production off to a good start. Our portfolio actions have transformed the outlook for Harbor and we're seeing the benefits of our increased scale and resilience. And now the organic opportunity within the portfolio means we can sustain production and generate material and growing free cash flow to the end of this decade and possibly beyond. Looking ahead, our portfolio, our team, and our track record give me confidence that we'll deliver against these capital allocation priorities including maintaining the strong balance sheet and delivering competitive shareholder returns through the cycle. So it's now time for Q&A. Alexander, Nigel, and I were joined by Alan Bruce, EVP of Tech Services, and we look forward to answering your questions. So now I'll hand it back to Dan.

Thank you, Linda. If you'd like to ask a question today, you can do so by pressing the raised hand function on Zoom. If dialing in by phone, you can press star nine to raise your hand and then star six to unmute yourself once prompted. I will now pause to give everyone a chance to signal for questions. Our first question comes from Lydia Rainforth of Barclays. Lydia, please unmute yourself to ask your question.

Thank you for a fascinating presentation. I actually have three questions, if I could. I'm sorry for quite so many, but there's a lot to go through. The first one was just on the cash return structure. In the past, you've done a combination of buybacks plus dividends, and you've now gone with the base dividend structure. And then, so when you're looking at, so why go for 100% base dividend? And when you're going forward, when you look at where the current cash prices are, do you split it between a special dividend plus? So just to give you an idea of how you're thinking about that. The second question was on the log integration. I just wonder if you could just walk us through a little bit more of that, whether culturally how that works and how you feel like that's going at the moment. And then the third one, it's actually more of a how do we actually work today question. So obviously we've got a lot of volatility. Just in terms of when you're seeing this level of volatility, how as Harbour Energy do you react? Are there things, the levers that you can pull in terms of additional production? Are you seeing conversations with customers? I'm just going to working through how you're actually seeing practical impacts of the current disruption. Thank you.

Hey, Lydia, thanks for the three questions. I'll turn to Alexander first to just say a few words about how we think about buybacks in the context of our distribution policy. And then I'll take the last two about log and then how we deal with volatility. So, Alexander.

Yeah, thanks for the question, Lydia. Yeah, I think when it comes to the distribution policy, we try to strike a good balance here between a base dividend that we're comfortable through the cycle and then what the added shareholder distributions are going to be on top. You've seen us in the past do quite a bit of share buybacks when we thought that was timely and a good thing to do. Going forward, it's probably going to be a mix of both higher dividends levels and share buybacks. We and the board will probably assess closer to time which of the two and what that mix is going to be. But I think for today, our point here is to set that base dividend level, the percentage of how do we think about sharing the extra free cash flow that we expect to see. And also, how do we balance this with that level? So, you know, hopefully the guidance that we've provided today and what I talked through is helpful in that regard and gives a bit of insight into our thinking. But, yeah, it's probably going to be a mix of the two.

Yeah, thanks, Alexander. I agree with that. I think it will just depend on the circumstances at the time, you know, what's going on with commodity prices, our outlook for cash flow, et cetera, et cetera. So a bit hard to answer, hypothetically, I think. Going to the other two questions, so log integration going really, really well, I think. And one of the reasons why I think we were successful landing this transaction was the fact that both sides saw what we believe will be, and so far has proven to be true, a good cultural fit. between their organization and ours. And that always helps make an integration go more smoothly. And we're just three weeks in and so far so good. It's not that complex of an integration for us if we compare it to the Wintershaw Daya transaction where we had seven countries we were adding and multiple different onshore and offshore production. Operated assets and non-operated assets, dealing with works councils in Germany, et cetera, buying a single business unit, if you will, in a country where we don't currently have operations. So there's no overlap. We're not dealing with two different offices. Who's going to do what? You know, this one from that standpoint is actually fairly straightforward. I was there a couple weeks ago. We have staff there. You know, this week we call them ambassadors. It's part of our integration toolkit where we send people more experienced in Harbor to new locations. And they just sit there and answer questions for two or three weeks so that people say, how do I get X, Y, or Z done? Somebody can tell them who to call or where to look, et cetera. So all going really smoothly. The staff there seem excited to be part of Harbor and, you know, curious to see what's going to come next. Volatility. Yeah, well, you know, never a dull moment in our industry, right? Lydia, it wasn't even as recent as last week, right? There were new reports coming out from experts trying to convince everyone that oil was headed to $50 per barrel. I know you weren't one of those, Lydia, so you were a bit of an outlier there, which we've always appreciated. But, you know, now here we are with oil at, I don't know where it is right now, but $80. So I think it's just another proof point that we live in a volatile world, and our sector in particular can be quite buffeted by that. And when that happens, we just have to focus on controlling what we can control. In terms of what we do this year, I mean, production this year, CapEx this year, these are things that have largely been decided months or even years ago or driven by decisions we've made in the past. So not a lot actually to do in particular with production this year. There are some knobs we can play on CapEx, but no one believes that. the conflict is going to be long-lived, or at least we can't assume that in our planning. And so what we have to assume is that at some point prices come back to a more normal range. What is that? Who knows? But we're certainly not making any decisions today that assume prices are going to be $80 or higher for years to come.

Brilliant. Thank you very much.

Thanks, Lydia. Thank you. Our next question comes from Alejandra Magana of JP Morgan. Alejandra, please unmute to ask your question. Alejandra, please unmute to ask your question.

Hi, can you hear me?

Yes, we can hear you.

Excellent. Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. As a follow-up to how you're responding to the Middle East developments, would you consider any changes to your hedging program to potentially accelerate your path to sub-1 times leverage, or does maintaining cash flow stability remain the priority? In your prepared remarks, you gave illustrative examples of what the cash flows could look like on today's forward curve, which we're encouraging. So I'm curious how you're thinking about that tradeoff today. And my second question is on your portfolio portfolio. You've discussed five core countries, which implies regions like Germany and North Africa could ultimately be candidates for disposals. How are you thinking about those assets today? What are market conditions like for potential divestments? And does your deleveraging timeline assume any disposals? Or would these just simply accelerate the path? Thanks.

Thanks, Alejandra. I'll turn to Alexander first to talk about hedging. I mean, you know, the phrase never waste a crisis kind of comes to mind, so he'll say a few words about that, and then I'll talk about divestments.

Yeah, thanks for the question, Alejandra. Yeah, so on hedging, I mean, the starting point is that we've I think now for several years had a fairly consistent hedging policy where we do try to get to, you know, 50% and then 35% hedge for the following year. Then what's developed over the last year or two is just how we think about the mix here. You know, instead of doing consistently swaps, we've transitioned into doing more and more of these color structures. So trying to lock in a floor typically above what the rating agencies are using in their cash flows, and then without giving away too much of the upside. so what are we doing today well we we are as you would expect actively engaged looking at uh sensible structures um in uh in today's uh environment as well what um has been quite unique is you know when you get this type of volatility it impacts the pricing of uh color structures so What we call the skew on the put and the call. And one thing is on the crude side where there's been for us as producers a positive skew here, but also and more impactful is the skew here on natural gas. And what we've been doing this week is putting quite a bit of structures in place here on the gas side. Not, you know, enormous amounts, but we're putting quite a bit of hedges in place where we saw the opportunity to lock in, you know, 15, 14 type dollar puts, and then participating in the upsides, you know, way up and, you know, mid-20s or so. So the skew on what we've seen here has been – how should i say unusual um and something we've been uh been trying to to to benefit from so yes uh we remain very active monitoring this uh but of course not uh you know participating and doing way too much uh uh as you shouldn't do at the point risk point in time but yeah those volatility impacts uh those type of opportunities and and we try to be awake and and and see what's possible to do there

Thanks, Alexander. Now coming to your question, Alejandra, about divestments. So we do have an active track record of portfolio management, and we expect that to continue. It's just a foundation or one of our keystones of our strategy. Given what we've announced today, we will have nearly exited Southeast Asia. That leaves, as you said, Europe and America as core, the bigger producers there at least. And then what's outside of that ring would be Germany and MENA. So a small position in Libya, also relatively small in Algeria and then in Egypt. And we have really good assets in those countries and fantastic teams that do amazing things. And they generate positive cash flow for us. So today, certainly doing no harm and providing some benefit to the portfolio, but We look at the portfolio rather dispassionately, and the criteria remain the same. If we can't get to scale in a country, if we're not at scale today and we don't see a profitable path to scale, or if investments in the country are struggling to compete for capital, then it may be more valuable in someone else's hands, and we would consider divesting. And that remains the case. So what does that have to do with the forecast we presented today? The production forecast only really includes transactions that have been announced, more or less. So there's none built into the forecast. That doesn't mean we won't continue active portfolio management, but there's none actually built into that. And in terms of proceeds, the free cash flow forecast that we give excludes divestment proceeds. But if there are some, I think the question was what we would do with them, and I think it just depends on the circumstances at the time. What's leverage? As you said, you know, what's leverage at the time we get those proceeds? What are oil and gas prices doing? What's our outlook for free cash flow at the time? And then depending on the circumstances and the amount of the proceeds, the board will decide what the best use of those are and whether they go towards leverage or shareholder distributions or some other use. Thanks for the question, Alejandra.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Wheaton of Stifle. Please unmute to ask a question.

Thank you, Alexander. Linda, good morning. Two questions, if I may, firstly. Can I come back to the point on 2027-2030 CAPEX? Guidance there of 2 to 2.3 billion at DD&A rates of $15, $16 a barrel. that doesn't suggest you're replacing all your production in that period of the late 2020s and that then suggests to me that you're going to see decline post 2030 which is kind of in forecasts already as you see Norway roll over I just wondered why have capex number that low because that doesn't seem enough to sustain this business post 2030 and my second question I was on G&A cost. The G&A cost now $470 million for 2025. Yes, there's 70 million odd of transaction costs in there, but it feels those restructuring costs are a feature of your business year on year. Comparing you to example for Woodside, that's a pretty similar number to Woodside, but Woodside is 25% bigger. What are you doing about controlling G&A costs? Because it feels like the business is getting more complex, not less, and G&A costs seem to be rising, risen quite substantially. I was going to throw in a third question on windfall tax, but after this week of chaos, I'm not going to bother. I think I'll stop there. Thank you.

Thanks, Chris. Let me turn to Alexander to talk about the CapEx. I think what we did lay out was our projection around reserve replacement ratio over the coming years. And our current forecast that includes that CapEx projection or range that you talked about does support a reserve replacement ratio during that period of over 100%. So we feel good about that and flat production towards the end of the decade. But, Alexander, do you want to say a bit more about that in G&A?

Yeah, thanks and good morning, Chris. I was almost expecting a question on EPL, so I'm not going to say I'm disappointed, but we can take that offline. Yeah, so on CapEx, I mean, the point today, Chris, is to show what this enlarged portfolio is now capable of doing and how can we sustain production through the decade with with these assets on hand. And also what you've seen from Nigel's bit is a very significant 2C basket as well. And there's also some exploration in here, which is, of course, not necessarily booked in any of these categories. And we'd expect to do exploration both in Norway and the U.S. Gulf areas. So, I mean, again, we think this is sort of the right level of CapEx to keep production at these rates. And the point is here that we do think that we can high grade this and margins will increase over time as well. But with the new jurisdictions, with lower cash taxes coming there, So fairly flat production, but margins increasing, and that's what we expect. And that's why we are making the statements about free cash flow growing over time as well.

And on GNA, anything to add, Alexander?

Yeah, I mean, I appreciate the comments around this and how GNA has been increasing. And there's obviously a few one-offs in terms of being acquisitive and going through all of this process that we are. I think our target remains the same to get to $2 per BOE or hopefully lower. Yes, we have been and we will be hard at work to ensure that we're operating just as efficiently as we can, not having too much overhead or too much process. and losing the agility that we think we still have in this company. So that is the target, and we'll be hard at work to keep that under control and hopefully reduce that as well.

I would just add that the Wintershall-Daya integration was a particularly complicated and therefore expensive one to do, and that we had a 12-month TSA in place that we were paying almost every month last year, at least nine months last year. And so that's now gone away. And, in fact, we're getting a bit of rebate on that because we had overpaid. So if we adjust last year's G&A for that, I think $30 million or something comes off of that, Chris, that will be helping us this year. And as Alexander said, targeting to get to $2 per barrel by 2027. And believe me, there is pressure from at least one person in the organization to get there before then. And if we think about your comment about are we going to continue to see those kind of costs in our GNA, the Waldorf and the log transactions are both very simple, as I already commented, when it comes to an integration standpoint. Waldorf, we already have a UKVU. It's all non-operated, so that's Very little to be done there. And then in the U.K., as I commented earlier, single country where there's no overlap with existing operations. So that's a – I wouldn't say plug and play, but relatively simple. And then there's still scope for all of this to come down as we continue to rationalize IT systems. and everything else over time. It doesn't happen overnight, and we're trying to be very thoughtful about does it really make sense to replace certain systems or to change operations in one country onto a system we might be using elsewhere? Does it make more sense to just keep it simple? and build an interface between the two. So we're doing that over time as it makes sense to, but should drive down costs over time. And then EPL, yeah, well, thanks for not asking the question. Thanks, Chris.

Thank you. Our next question comes from James Carmichael of Berenberg.

Hi. Morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Just going back to the distribution policy in terms of the base dividend, I appreciate it feels quite far away given where commodity prices are. at the moment. But if there was a period of weakness and free cash flow dipped below 400 million, let's say, does that 300 million sort of base still hold, or would the 75% be the ceiling, so potentially go below that? Just on the US group as well, I guess if we look at the production growth chart, there's a lot of focus on Houdat, Buckskin and Leon Castile, but the other bucket looks to be driving quite a bit of the production growth as well, maybe more than Houdat and Buckskin combined. So maybe just wondering if you could give a bit of colour on what's driving that or underlying in that other bucket. Yes. And then I probably, seeing as we're here, probably will ask about the EPL, I'm afraid. So there's obviously been a lot of discussion, headlines, et cetera, around that this week. The Supreme Statement didn't really provide any colour, but then stories around the meeting, which I guess you guys were in yesterday. So just wondering what, if anything, you sort of can say around where you think the government's head is at, your level of confidence that that comes forward, et cetera. Thanks.

Great. Thanks, James. I'll turn to Alexander to talk about kind of the sustainability of the $300 million in different price environments, then to Nigel to talk about other fields where the growth might be coming from in the U.S., and then thank you for asking a question about the EBL, and I'll be happy to take that. So, Alexander.

Yeah. Thanks. Thanks, James. Good morning. Yeah, I'm in the base dividend. I mean, we We set it at a level which we're comfortable and we think this will hold through the cycle. And we view that as an initial base dividend level. And when we're having, again, back to Alejandra's question earlier, when we're having this type of volatility in markets, We do try to be mindful here of doing hedging, doing other things which protects that as well. So, you know, trying to do hedging into future years to, yeah, protect free cash flow there just to ensure we are above that minimum level as well. Nigel? Nigel?

Sorry, didn't come off mute fast enough. Sorry about that. James, thanks for the question. Look, we have an active program. We're just working through right now, potentially adding a second rig line in the Gulf of America. We clearly are focused on our existing hubs to grow production. There are other opportunities that you refer to in here, really around Taggart, which is 100% owned. And then potentially beyond that, post-2028 is really what we think to think about our short cycle exploration program. But the other bucket you refer to on that chart is really driven by Taggart production.

Right, James, and then the UPL. Well, Alexander had the honor of representing Harbor Energy at the meeting yesterday with the Chancellor, so after I answer, if he wants to add some color, we'll give him the chance to do that. But I guess we'd say we welcome the opportunity to engage with the Chancellor on the topic, and we welcome the statement from her office yesterday saying she'd like the EPL to come to an end and that she had hoped to announce it this week, but geopolitical events got in the way, if you will. And certainly there's a lot of overlapping interests and common ground between Harbor and the Chancellor's Office and between industry in general and Treasury. So investment, jobs, growth, all priorities for all of us. The problem is the current fiscal environment for the U.K. oil and gas sector supports none of those things. and actually has led to the opposite over the past few years, lower investment, job reductions, falling domestic oil and gas production. That's meant more imports with higher emissions, lower energy security. And now we see that it's all come at another bad time with European gas storage levels well below five-year lows, and now 20% of the world's LNG disrupted, LNG supplies disrupted. So we continue to believe in the potential of the UK North Sea. We certainly believe in our team in Aberdeen and have seen them do amazing things when it comes to recovering oil and gas in what can be a sometimes challenging environment. And we do hope to continue to work with the Chancellor now to make the removal of the EPL happen sooner rather than later, especially at this time when energy security is unfortunately back on the radar.

Yeah, thanks for the question, James. And, I mean, you know that we have been, you know, one of the vocal companies. You said the, you know, EPO has very negative effects for the UK and how we think about energy policy and security here. We've spent quite a bit of resources in engaging with the UK government and helping helping us to get to a new regime in place, which was announced last year. Now, this regime would not come into play until 2030, and again, we've been vocal in saying, well, why wait? If we have a future-proof fiscal system, why wait until 2030? We believe it's in the best interest of the sector here and the country, quite frankly, to implement this sooner. I mean, we have been working quite a bit with the UK government, and we will, of course, continue to do that and support as best we can. And we do also think that the efforts now from the Chancellor's Office do seem genuine, and we are hopeful to see some progress over here in hopefully the not-too-distant future.

Thank you. I think we have one more question, maybe, Dan.

Thank you. Our last question comes from Matt Smith of Bank of America. Matt, please unmute to ask your question. Hi, Matt. If you can hear us, please unmute to ask your question.

Hi there, I think I've got there. Thanks for taking my questions. I'd love to turn to projects a bit in LATAM in particular. So first of all on Argentina, Vuacomerta specifically, is there any update you could give us as to production performance versus expectations and the latest on licensing there as it relates to the oil and gas side? That would be interesting. And then second question turning to Mexico and Zama specifically. Could you give us some more details on the latest development plan that you're working on? I guess the overarching improvements versus the old. And I'm just wondering also how many phases we could be looking at to exploit the full Zama resource, please. Thank you.

Great, Matt, and thanks for the questions. And it's nice to get questions from time to time about the project. So I'm going to turn this over to Nigel.

Hey, Matt, thanks for the question. So I'll start with Argentina. Our base production today is around 70,000 barrels a day. The bulk of that comes from our CMA1 license. We completed a project early. I had a schedule last year at Phoenix to – plateau that production through to 2040 and we did actually extend the license uh the world growth opportunities in our resource position is in the ape gas window where we have about 22 and a half percent equity and in the san roque roque all window we did complete a successful pilot um and the unconventional license to san roque last week last year And we've got a 16-well program scheduled for the end of this year. We're working with our key stakeholders down there and our partners really to secure the unconventional oil license towards the end of the year. So once we have clarity there, we will be progressing that program with our partners. In Ape, today our production is around 20,000 barrels a day from 80 wells. I would say that we've got a significant number of well locations potentially to materially increase the resource. We're not going to drill for the sake of drill and grow production. It's about generating a margin. Today, the gas market has softened a little bit and we've got less offtake and we've got more market penetration from associated gas. So that's one of the key reasons why we've invested in SACER. I think it gives us another avenue to secure a better gas price and give us options on pricing, which allows us to optimize and then underpin development in Ape. So as you know, the LNG project is an FID we took last year with several partners. That project is underway and that will, I think, open up avenues to continue to develop our dry gas window. I asked a question around Zama and Calm, we have actually spent a lot of time focusing on what we want our business to look like in Mexico over time. It is about creating two advantage tubs. We have actually taken some deep water assets out of the portfolio, which we won't invest in, and we will not be advancing those projects. We're focused on Zama and Calm. We'd like to get both of those projects to FID ready over the next 12 to 18 months. The concepts are nearing completion and will be entering feed this year on both projects. We've re-optimized the Zama development for a phased development, which we'll see a $1 to $2 billion investment in the first phase with potentially a small water flood, but we're really finalizing that scope. So we'll see a phased development, small number of wells, to generate some early production and then we'll come back with a more second phase on XANA. Now we're operator, we have more control and are focused on really optimizing that design and that concept and we'll know more as we get to feed this year and have clarity around the FID and first-order timing sometime later this year, early next year. We're looking to secure FPSOs for both Kahn and Zama. We have line of sight to narrowing the options on both of those. So it's an exciting time to be in Mexico. Both projects have matured a lot in the last 12 months. We're getting close to finalizing the concept for each. Optimizing our well locations is part of driving down our break-even costs. We are focused not necessarily just on schedule, but just driving down our break-evens. These will be long-lived projects. We need to make sure they compete and compete over time. So a lot of focus on maturing the projects and on driving capital efficiency into both of them. We do see some synergies if we can run them somewhat in parallel where we can optimize rig schedules, service vessels, engineering support. So A lot to get work through this year, but both projects are now getting clearer and clearer on their path forward.

Right. Thanks, Nigel. And thanks, everyone, for joining. We really appreciate the fact that you've spent some time with us today. And as I've said, I'm really proud of what the team's delivered last year. And it's good to see that we're off to a solid start for 2026. So thanks again for joining and have a good rest of your day.