Kerry Group plc

Good morning and welcome to the Carey Group Interim Results 2022 conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star one again. For operator assistance throughout the call, please press star zero. And finally, I would like to advise all participants that this call is being recorded. I'd now like to welcome Mr. William Lynch, Head of Investor Relations, to begin the conference.

Mr. Lynch, over to you.

Thank you, Operator.

Good morning and welcome to Cary's interim 2022 results call. I'm joined on the call by our CEO, Edmund Scanlon, and our CFO, Marguerite Larkin. Edmund and Marguerite will take you through today's presentation, and following this, we will open the lines for your questions. Before we begin, please note the usual disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements.

I will now hand over to Edmund. Thanks, William. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call.

So beginning first with slide four and my overview comments. Overall, we were very pleased with the strong business growth we delivered across the first half. in what remains a highly dynamic marketplace. We continue to see strong customer demand for innovation, despite the macro challenges around inflation, supply chain constraints, and geopolitical events. Group reported revenue increased by 13% to 4.1 billion euro in the first half, driven by organic growth of over 15%. As you can see here from the breakdown of the slide, this organic growth has been a combination of volume and price, both of which have evolved significantly over the past number of quarters. Firstly, in volumes, which were up 6.8% at group level in H1. And since Q2 last year, where we achieved very strong growth post COVID-19, we've been delivering consistent, strong volume growth. There are a number of contributing factors but the key perspective for me has been the improved performance across both our retail and food service channels in our taste and nutrition business, which I'll touch on in a little bit more detail later on. Secondly, on pricing, which as you can see here, significantly evolved through the period across both our businesses and came in at 8.3% at group level for H1. We continue to actively manage the inflationary environment in close collaboration with our customers and support them in developing their offerings to meet the needs of the rapidly evolving marketplace. And then group EBITDA increased by 13% to 518 million Euro in the first half as we maintained our overall group EBITDA margin, a good performance given the current inflationary environment. And before we move on to the next slide, just to update you on a few other overview points. On the strategic front, we continue to expand our footprint with the expansion and development of new capacity in the Middle East and a new case facility in Durban, South Africa. Both of these investments will be important enablers of growth in the AFNI region in the coming years. And finally, on our Russia and Belarus businesses. We've completed the divestment of our Russian subsidiary to our local management. An agreement has also been reached for the sale of our Belarus subsidiary to a third party, with the key objective in both instances of maintaining continuity for our employees.

Now moving on to slide five and taste and nutrition, where we saw continued strong growth through the period across our end-use markets, regions and channels.

Reported revenue per case nutrition increased significantly in the period by 27.5% to €3.4 billion, driven by strong volume growth of 8.6% and pricing of 5.9%, combined with favourable FX and acquisition impacts. EBITDA for the division was up 25% to €515 million, with overall margin of 15%, as the impact of passing through raw material price inflation was partially offset by mixed leverage, efficiency and portfolio benefits. Overall volume performance for taste and nutrition H1 was strong as you can see here on the right hand side of the slide with double digit growth in Q2. Performance was strong across our end use markets led by beverage, meat and bakery. From a channel perspective we achieved excellent growth in retail and strong double digit growth in food service. Volumes in emerging markets were up 10.7% led by growth in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and LATAM. And our key growth platforms delivered strong overall performance, led by increased demand for a range of food waste solutions, with good growth in authentic taste and plant-based, with health and biopharma performing in line with our expectations, given the strong prior year.

Moving then to slide six and our regional performance within taste and nutrition.

Reported revenue in the Americas region for H1 increased to over €1.9 billion, with volumes up 9.1% in the first half and up 11.4% in Q2. This growth was led by the beverage EUM, with innovations using Kerry's authentic natural taste, proactive nutrition and taste sense sugar reduction technologies, while growth in meat and bakery EUMs was driven by food protection, preservation in particular.

Performance was strong across both of our channels, and in LATAM, we had strong growth across both Brazil and Mexico.

In Europe, reported revenue increased to €729 million, with volumes up 7.1% in the first half and up 5.9% in Q2. Growth in this region was again strong in the beverage EUM, particularly in refreshing beverages, tea and coffee, and the low no-alcohol categories. Dairy and dairy alternatives performed well, while snacks also delivered good growth, with many customers renovating their products in advance of changing regulatory requirements within the region. Overall, the performance of the food service channel was a key driver of growth for the region, led by good menu development and increased level of seasonal products with QSRs in particular. From a geographical perspective, growth was strongest in Central and Southern Europe, partially offset by performance in Russia and Eastern Europe. Then in Apnea, we reported revenue of an increase to €768 million, with volumes up 9.1% in the first half and 12.1% in Q2. This growth was led by meat and meat alternatives, with increased demand for Kerry's range of local authentic taste and texture systems across global, regional and local leaders. Snacks achieved excellent growth in savoury applications, while growth in bakery was driven by new launch activity and increased demand for functional systems. Both our retail and food service channels performed well, And from a geographical standpoint, growth in the region was strongest across the Middle East and Southeast Asia, partially offset by China, which continues to be impacted by local restrictions.

Turning to slide seven and Dairy Ireland, which delivered solid growth through a period of significant price inflation.

Revenue was 695 million euro on the period, reflecting primarily price increases and volume growth. EBITDA increased by 4.6% to €38 million, reflecting a margin of 5.5%. Overall volume growth for Dairy Ireland was up 2.2%, a good achievement considering the significant price increases across the business. These higher prices reflected constrained global supply dynamics in the dairy ingredients business, which achieved good overall growth, while in dairy consumer products, overall category volumes were impacted by higher prices. And finally, the new plant-based range of dairy gold products was launched at the end of the period.

So with that, I'll hand you over to Marguerite to give you some more detail on the financial performance.

Thank you, Edmund, and good morning, everyone. Turning now to slide nine, financial overview, and to bring you through the financial performance in more detail. Overall, group revenue increased to €4.1 billion in the period, with volume growth of 6.8%, a key contributor. Group EBITDA increased by 13.1% to 518 million euro, with overall Group EBITDA margin maintained at 12.8%. Adjusted earnings per share increased by 9% in constant currency and by 16.1% in reported currency due to the significant movements in foreign currency in the period. with a stronger US dollar being a key driver. Return on capital employed of 10.2%, reflective of recent portfolio developments, and free cash flow was 226 million, or 72% cash conversion, which I'll comment on in more detail shortly. Turning next to slide 10 and the group revenue analysis. Overall reported revenue increased by 13.3% in the period, driven by a number of components as highlighted here. Firstly, in the center of the slide, volume growth of 6.8% and price of 8.3%. On a like for like basis, this volume and price growth equates to 7.8% and 9.3% respectively. On foreign exchange, we had a 5.8% translation currency tailwind on revenue, driven by a weaker Euro against the major currencies, combined with a 0.1% transaction impact. Overall acquisitions and disposals was a net decrease of 7.7%, with acquisitions contributing 4.7% to revenue, driven primarily by Niocet, more than offset by the effect of the meats and meals business disposal of 12.4% in the period. Moving to slide 11 and the divisional revenue analysis. Firstly, on the left-hand side, you can see the breakdown of our overall group revenue by business for the first half of the year and our group organic revenue growth of 15.2%. And on the right-hand side, you have tasted Nutrition's quarterly organic revenue development, where you can see that the continued strong business volume growth has been complemented by a step-up in pricing contribution across each of the quarters as we continue to work closely with our customers through this current inflationary period. Turning now to our Group H1 EBITDA margin bridge. Overall, Group EBITDA increased by 13% to 518 million in the period, with EBITDA margin maintained at 12.8%. Looking at the main drivers, firstly, we had a net 20 basis points improvement from operating leverage and portfolio mixed benefits, which were partially offset by costs associated with business disruption in China and Eastern Europe. Pricing was a net 120 basis points dilution in the period, driven principally by the mathematical impact of recovering the absolute increase in raw material input costs through pricing. Overall, we saw mid to high teens input cost inflation in the first half. Operational efficiencies contributed 20 basis points to EBITDA margin, due to the benefits from the transition to the global business services. Currency added 10 basis points, given the mix of our profits and Euro weakness in the period. And finally, acquisitions and disposals contributed a net 70 basis points, as we improved the margin profile of our business, principally through a combination of the acquisition of the higher margin NIASEP business and taste and nutrition, and the disposal of the lower margin consumer foods, meats and meals business. Given the volatility in the marketplace and the very significant raw material inflation, we are pleased with our overall EBITDA margin performance and the resilience of our model. Moving next to free cash flow on slide 13. Overall, we generated free cash flow of 226 million, with cash conversion on earnings of 72%. EBITDA was up 60 million in the period, moving next to average working capital, which was a net investment of 164 million, primarily due to three main drivers. Firstly, the impact of increased raw material input cost inflation, Secondly, the strong first half volume growth drove an increased working capital requirement. And thirdly, decisions we made to increase inventory holdings as we managed through the short-term supply chain disruption. At the end of the period on a point-to-point basis, we had investment in working capital of circa 100 million higher than the average, which was driven principally by the normal mid-year seasonality of our dairy business and the increased inflationary and volume impacts at the end of the second quarter. Over the second half of the year, this seasonality will unwind and we will have the planned reduction of the KerryConnect contingency stockholding, which will contribute to our target of circa 80% cash conversion for the full year. And then finally, net capital expenditure with 74 million which was lower in the period due to the timing and commissioning of a number of large strategic capital development projects that Edmund referenced earlier. Turning to our debt profile and credit metrics on slide 14. Net debt was 2.5 billion at the end of the period. We have a long maturity profile with a weighted average maturity of 5.1 years. Our credit metrics remain strong with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.1 times and EBITDA to net interest increasing to 16 times. Overall, we have a very strong balance sheet which will continue to support our strategic growth initiatives. Finally, to cover off a number of other financial matters on slide 15. On Carey Connect, I am pleased to say we successfully completed the North America deployments by the end of the period. On pensions, we had a net surplus of 164 million at the end of June, primarily due to the increase in discount rates. On non-trading items, the overall net charge of 62 million, mainly related to the impairment of the group's Russia and Belarus assets of approximately 40 million, and the previously announced Operational Excellence Program. For raw materials, we expect similar cost inflation to continue for the second half of the year, and we will continue to use our well-established pricing model to manage input cost fluctuations for the remainder of the year. And finally on currency, we're forecasting a translation tailwind of circa 8% on adjusted earnings per share for the full year based on current exchange rates. So to summarize, we delivered a good overall financial performance in the period, especially given the current volatility in the marketplace. And with that, I'll hand you back to Edmund.

Thanks, Marguerite.

Before I close out with the outlook, I just want to take a moment to touch on how our business has evolved over the past number of years, and why we feel strongly positioned for growth, despite the fact that we're spacing into an uncertain period. On slide 17 here, and it's one that we've shown many times before, you can see how we run our business through five different dimensions. And what I'd like to highlight to you today is the channel lens in particular. So moving on to slide 18, you can see the performance of our retail and food service channels over the past five years. In the retail channel, historical volume growth has been in the three to 4% range. And this has seen an acceleration over the past couple of years. But in the food service channel, historical growth was at a higher rate before being impacted by COVID in 2020. And this has now recovered really strongly since then. We've made a number of important strategic developments in recent years, enhancing our technology and our local capabilities, which have been important in continuing to meet the needs of our customers and their consumers in their markets across both these channels. In this period, we've seen a number of key dynamics developing across both channels. Firstly, in retail, we're seeing this industry move much quicker than before. Innovation has become far more collaborative, and we're seeing more and more demand for outsourced innovation. There's a huge demand to enhance, or at a bare minimum, to maintain case profiles by removing sugar, sodium, and fat. Every company across the industry is dedicating more time and more resources to improving the overall sustainability impact of their products. including reducing food waste, which is just as much about saving costs as it is about the sustainability impact, especially in the current environment. And adding personal holistic health benefits to products is a long-term macro dynamic that is here to stay across both food and beverage categories. And we're seeing the food service channel moving at an even faster pace than retail. given how that landscape has evolved over the past couple of years. There's a huge amount of work going on across the food service industry to improve and to simplify their back of house operations, which is a significant opportunity, but only if you have the technical capabilities and the operational expertise to deliver. Sustainability and food waste are just as important and are just as much in focus for the food service channel. Chains continue to gain market share and are looking at opportunities to broaden and develop their menu offerings. So our strengths and our expertise to address these key dynamics across both the retail and food service channels.

This is why we feel we're better positioned than ever before. So finally, moving on to slide 19 and the outlook and future prospects.

While overall market conditions remain uncertain, we feel strongly positioned for growth with a good innovation pipeline in what is a highly dynamic marketplace. We remain confident in our ability to manage through the current inflationary cycle with Kerry's well-established pricing model and our cost initiatives. We will continue to strategically evolve our portfolio and invest capital aligned to our strategic growth priorities and our key growth platforms. And as you've already seen this morning, we are reaffirming our overall EPS guidance range, which reflects an expected overall dilution impact of 2.5% from acquisitions and disclosals, inclusive of the divestment of Russia and Belarus. So while we recognize the heightened uncertainty and volatility in the marketplace, we remain confident in our outlook. And we expect to achieve adjusted earnings per share growth in 2022 a 5% to 9% on a constant currency basis. And with that, I'll hand you back to the operator, and we look forward to taking your questions.

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, please press star then the number one on your telephone keypad.

We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. So our first question comes from the line of Castle Kenny of Davey.

Please go ahead.

Morning, all, and thanks for taking my questions. Three questions from my side. Firstly, Edmund, just on food service, very strong performance in the second quarter. Can you speak to the building blocks that enable such growth, and are you taking share within that channel? Secondly, just an overall question on the outlook for volume growth for the full year, cognizant of such a strong performance in the first half, and maybe provide some general commentary around the business outlook as you see it today. And finally, one from Margaritas on working capital. Do you expect the end point in working capital for the full year to be lower than where it was at the first half? There are my three questions. Thank you.

Thanks, Colin. Good morning. So firstly on food service, look, we're very pleased with the continued strong performance on the channel. I went into some detail there at the end of the presentation in terms of just, you know, let's say some of the key underpins of growth. Overall, we had mid to high teen volume growth in the channel, and that continues to reflect, I would say, good momentum in the quarter. In terms of, let's say, the drivers, seasonal menu offerings I would call out probably as the key driver in Q2. And I think the second point is that innovations to reduce complexity at the back of store, I would say, continues to be a factor in the quarter as well, something I've talked about many times in the past. And then the third point is solutions designed to improve the overall nutritional profile and sustainability impact for our customers. In terms of share, I think if you think about those three drivers, our customers in the food service channel do not necessarily need to grow in order for us to expand our business with them, especially when you think about that in the context of reducing complexity of the back of store. That is really a scale opportunity for Kerry and an opportunity that had not been heretofore. This is something that really has changed and evolved over the last 18 months or so, driven by, let's say, labor challenges in the channel. So then in terms of the, let's say, the overall volume outlook, look, we do feel that we are We do continue to be well positioned for growth and there is a good innovation pipeline there at an overall level. Look, we are also facing into a period of heightened uncertainty and there is volatility out there. But of course, this volatility always comes to us with opportunities as we help customers to adapt to the fast changing marketplace. So overall, for the second half of the year, we do expect our full year volumes to be at the top end of that 4% to 6% median term range. And also bear in mind maybe for the second half is that we do have stronger comparators.

Good morning, Carl. So just on your working capital question, yes, we do expect to have an overall decrease in working capital from June to the year end. Two key call-outs I would make in that regard. Firstly, we will have the unwind of the normal seasonality of our dairy business that I mentioned earlier. And then secondly, there will be a reduction in the Kerry Connect's contingency stock holding, which should be in the zone of 30 to 40 million. So as you can appreciate, just given the current environment, particularly right now in the marketplace, there are a number of moving parts, but hopefully that gives you a directional sense between June and the year end.

That's great, thanks for the detail.

So our second question comes from the line of James Stargett from Barenburg, please go ahead.

Hello, good morning everyone. So I just wanted to, obviously a very strong H1, congratulations. So sorry to focus on an area which looked a bit softer, which I think was the European retail channel business in Q2. So could you maybe just talk about what some, you know, what you were seeing in the retail business in Q2 in terms of volumes and taste nutrition and the outlook for that area in the second half. And then secondly, kind of on pricing, you know, you mentioned you think inflation levels, the cost inflation level is going to be similar in the second half of the year. So should we expect the level of pricing, you know, in Q2, you know, to be a good guide for the second half of the year? And in that context, the 120 basis point margin decline from the net pricing, will that be a similar impact in the second half of the year? Thank you very much.

Good morning, James. Maybe I'll just take the pricing question first. Yes, we're anticipating a similar increase in raw material input costs in the second half and consequently looking at pricing being similar also for the second half and directionally, yes, the mathematical effect will be broadly similar in the second half.

Good morning, James. In terms of the retail performance, look, overall, I have to say we're pleased with the overall performance in the retail channel. You're absolutely right with respect to, let's say, Europe. From an overall level, the main driver in Europe had been growth. in the food service channels, primarily driven by LCOs. Please bear in mind, just in the Europe performance, that we would have seen the impact of, let's say, our Russian Eastern Europe business there as well. So that was a little bit of a drag there for the first half. But with that said, you know, overall we had good performance in snacks. Maybe plant-based might be another area I might just touch on briefly. We did see some variability region to region there with Europe being a little bit softer while North America was stronger. So hopefully, James, that gives you some perspective.

Thanks. And just to qualify – To clarify, the Russia disposals will obviously be taken through the M&A line, so it won't be affecting volume growth in the second half?

Go ahead. Thanks.

So our next question comes from the line of Lauren Molyneux of Citi. Your line is open.

Hi, morning. Thanks for taking my question. I'm Lauren Molyneux from Citi. I just have two questions, please. So obviously, we've kind of all been seeing a lot of the raw material prices softening in recent weeks. And I'm just wondering whether you're yet seeing that in your cost base, or can you just maybe remind us of kind of any time delays or hedging points that you have there? And then also just kind of thinking this through and maybe when that might start to impact you. And also just in terms of the conversations you're having with customers, whether, you know, if customers are seeing prices coming off, is it getting more difficult to put any pricing through? So just whether there's kind of any change in the tone of conversations there or whether you're still quite confident with that pass-through as well. And then the second question that I had was just – thinking about obviously the more difficult consumer backdrop at the minute. Are you seeing any evidence of this downtrading within your customer mix? And then how should we think about that in terms of the mix within your growth and your profitability as well? So whether that's any headwinds and is that included in your outlook for the rest of the year? Thank you.

Good morning, Lauren. I might start off here and Marguerite might come in after. So, firstly, as it relates to, let's say, what we're seeing in the marketplace in terms of, let's say, pricing and how those conversations are going with customers, there continues to be inflation in the marketplace, and we continue to have those conversations with customers. And, you know, we haven't seen any, let's say, significant slowdown or anything like that in most of our raw material baskets. Most of our raw material basket continues to be in the four quartile, you know, when you look at it across a five to ten year period. So those conversations are continuing, and I think our results are reflective of, let's say, a model that's working for us and working for our customers. And, of course, we continue to offset and to try and be as efficient as we possibly can to try and mitigate some of those cost increases. Then in terms of down trading and what we're seeing in the marketplace, we've seen some, let's say, trading down in a few places. I'd touch on maybe in the food service channel in North America, we've seen, let's say, from a QSR perspective, value meals certainly having an uptake from a demand perspective. And from a European side, we've seen some, let's say, evolution there from a customer perspective or consumer perspective, moving more towards some private label brands. But overall, from a Kerry perspective, I would say we're well positioned. Let's say if we're selling a technology or a solution to to a branded customer versus a private label customer, there is no significant difference from a margin expectation standpoint across those customer bases. Overall, I have to say that demand continues to be quite resilient. As we sit here today, of course, we're pragmatic about, let's say, the future. But as we sit here today, there continues to be quite a bit of resiliency from a demand perspective overall.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Bowen of Barclays. Please go ahead.

Yeah, hi, thanks for taking the questions. I've got two. The first one just on sort of more housekeeping, just on the cash flow. Thanks for the colour on working capital. Just thinking about the second half, could you give any comments on the outlook for CapEx? Would we expect that to normalise and I guess what level? Would you be expecting maybe as a percentage of sales for the full year? And also, can you guide at all on the cash impacts for non-trading items for the full year? And the second question, more strategic, I mean, obviously more companies are making M&A moves which to a degree are aimed at following your lead in pursuing integrated solution strategies. I wonder how do you see your competitive moat in integrated solutions in this context and I guess to what degree are your investments in things like Kerry Connect and your manufacturing footprint over the last five years maybe giving you a head start on other players who are moving into this space? Thanks.

Thanks, Alex. I might kick off here with the second part of your question. I think you've touched on a few good points already. I think it's fair to say that some of the accommodations that we've seen is primarily about expanding portfolios, and it certainly, I believe, validates our approach over the last many years. I do feel we have a very strong head start in that integrated solutions and creating synergistic value for our customers by layering technologies is something that we've been engaging with customers on for quite some time. So I think at an overall level, I think We're very well positioned. I'm not overly surprised to see some of these combinations happening because ultimately this is what the market is looking for. This is what customers are looking for. And they're looking at the opportunity to outsource more and more innovation. This, again, is something that I've been talking about for quite some time, and I feel we're best positioned in terms of enabling customers to do that and giving confidence to customers to all sorts of elements of their innovation. So from a competitive landscape positioning, we feel good about where we're at. Of course, we continue to evolve our own portfolio. We continue to be active from an M&A perspective. And of course, at the same time, be selective about what we're investing in. And whatever we do from an M&A perspective will be close in from a strategy perspective, center of the play for scale opportunities. But I wouldn't call out any change to our overall M&A strategy. And as we sit here today, I don't see any impact on our competitive positioning. We feel pretty good about where we're at.

And Alex, then just on the two other questions. Firstly, on non-trading items, no change since February. Three elements to that. Firstly, the Accelerate Operational Excellence Programme in the zone of 50 million, completion of Kerry Global Businesses Services in the zone of 15 million and acquisition integration costs. based on the acquisitions we've announced to date of circa 15 million. And that obviously, in addition, there will be the impairment charge that we recorded at the half-year in relation to Russia and Belarus, circa 40 million at the half-year, and a further 15 million in relation to unwinding of foreign exchanges. recycling on the completion of that divestment. And then on capital expenditure, we currently expect the capital to be similar to last year and in the zone of 300 million.

Very helpful, thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Han Bayeg of Credit Suisse.

Your line is open.

Hi, guys. Thank you very much for the questions. I have a couple of follow-ups and then maybe a separate question. Could you confirm that when you referenced the top end of 4% to 6% volume growth, you were referencing the group or the T&M division? Because I would expect... excluding Russia, your volumes in TNN to be higher than that 46% because 6% would imply a pretty material 100 basis point slowdown in the three-year CAGR. That's my first follow-up. My second follow-up is on working capital. I guess if you could help us with the impact from the seasonality in the dairy business, And what you expect the outflow or your best guess for the outflow to be for the full year, I guess that will predominantly drive the cash conversion increase for the full year. And then my final question, on the downtrading element, I appreciate it's a similar question, if you were to sell sort of lower value products or your ingredients into value. But what about on a cash profit basis? Is it also similar or is it lower?

Thank you. Maybe, Faham, if I just cover off on the, William here, if I just cover off on the volume. The outlook, I suppose, when we're saying the top end of the range, given obviously where dairy markets are and obviously, you know, which is incorporating a lot of pricing, we wouldn't be looking at the Kerry Dairy Ireland business really having much growth as we go through the second half of the year. So it's probably towards the top end from a group perspective. From a taste and nutrition perspective, we would definitely be looking at the top end of the 4% to 6%, you know. So that's just to give you color there.

In terms of the second part of your question, Pam, and thanks for the question, I think it's fair to say that the types of conversations that are going on with customers, let's say in the retail space, is that those retailers really are really considering, I would say, how they're going to take advantage of the, let's say, the upcoming potential recession that we're about to face into. And what I mean by that is I don't believe one should automatically assume that the approach that these retailers are going to take will be an NDE approach, a national brand equivalent approach, where the primary focus is cost to the detriment of quality or supply chain. So I think retailers are being very purposeful around and thoughtful around how they're going to, let's say, set their strategy for the next phase here in terms of private labels. But specifically on your question on, let's say, quantum of margin, ultimately when we look at our business by technology, regardless of what type of customer we're selling that technology to, the quantum of margin and the percentage margin is quite similar.

And then just maybe finally on your follow-up question on working capital, in terms of the cash conversion, in terms of the outlook for cash conversion for 2022, we're looking at cash conversion in the zone of 80% for the full year. A couple of key call-outs that I would make. Firstly, we will have increased trading profit driven by growth in the business as per the guidance in terms of delivering the cash. And secondly, increased investment in working capital, as I mentioned, driven by volume growth, raw material and input costs to inflation. And then finally, the capital investment for the year that I referenced earlier. In terms of the seasonality points in relation to the unwind of the norm of seasonality of our dairy business, I would say directionally it could be in the zone of 50 million, 50 to 60 million.

Thank you. So our next question comes from the line of Mr. Jason Mullen.

Your line is open. Hi, good morning. Just a few quick questions, if you don't mind. Firstly, in terms of volume performance in TNN during Q2, that's obviously a standard performance. Can you maybe just talk about the exit rate that you saw and how sort of lumpy it was during the period? Second question again, sorry, around working capital. Marguerite, you elaborated a bit in terms of the inventory side that that had an impact, and you maybe just parsed out some of the other key drivers, and if you can put any quantum, you know, for instance, how much the input cost inflation is maybe having a drag. And then finally, just in terms of some of the recent acquisitions you've made, particularly NYSEP, just a bit of color on how that's performing. Is it online, et cetera, would be very helpful. Thanks.

Jason, good morning. Apologies, I missed the very first part of your question on volume. I just didn't, I just missed, you just cut out for one quick second. I just missed it.

No problem. It was just really, Edmund, about the exit rates from the Q2 performance and if there was any sort of lumpiness during the period at Q2.

Sure, Jason, got it, yeah. I would say that we finished the quarter stronger than we started the quarter, and maybe one call-out there, maybe two call-outs. The first call-out is China. Like we said in Q1, at the Q1 results, our China performance in Q1 was back double digits. And April, as you're aware, was pretty heavily impacted in China from a restriction standpoint. And that then improved in May and June. So that would have been a factor. And the second point that I would make is that we had a number of new launches kick in in the quarter as well that hit the back end of the quarter. So then in terms of acquisitions, look, we're very happy with the Niasset acquisition. Maybe just to give one example of, let's say, how it is contributing to our business is that we've developed a number of new solutions combining the technology that we acquired through Niasset, combining it with already developed in-house capability that we had. And the combination of those two things has actually enabled us to bring solutions to market that enables our customers to further extend shelf life. And by extending shelf life of products for our customers, we're also extending the opportunity for those products to be consumed. And that then subsequently is having an impact on food waste. So that certainly has been a driver for growth here for us in the first half.

And Jason, just on your additional working capital question. Firstly, I would say that the increased working capital is predominantly indexed towards inventory. There is some increase in receivables predominantly due to seasonality, the inflation and growth that I referenced and the strong finish in the quarter.

Thanks very much. Our next question comes from the line of Charles Eden from UVS.

Please go ahead.

Hi, guys. Good morning. Thanks for the questions. Just two quick ones following up on some of the other topics. Have you seen any indication that sort of value-add or premium innovation from customers is drawing up? You talked a little bit about the dynamics and trading down, but any indication that the appetite for premium innovation is stalling? And my second one, just to follow up on your comments on plant-based, Edmund, if you could just remind us how big that business is for Kerry today, and if possible, break that down between dairy and meat alternatives, that would be. Much appreciated.

Thank you. Good morning, Charles. Thanks for the questions. In terms of premium, let's say we're seeing different things from different customers, but I certainly wouldn't be flagging right now that there's been a slowdown on premium innovation. Just to share with you a very topical example, Charles. You know, this whole area of ready to drink cocktails, for instance, low, no alcohol beverages, those two spaces, you know, I would consider them quite premium from a market perspective, but quite dynamic from a launch perspective. And we saw a number of new launches in Q2 actually in both of those spaces. So to me, that would suggest that customers continue to believe that there will be a premium market still out there. That said, of course, there's going to be a value end to the market as well. So I wouldn't be flagging right here today that there's any significant change of note in innovation at the premium side of the market. Charles, in terms of plant-based, look, I'm not going to get into a lot of detail here in terms of the split, but what I would say is that We have seen volatility by region that perhaps we haven't seen previously. From a scale perspective, think about it as over 2% from a revenue perspective of TNN. And from a growth perspective, think about it as a double digit level. And that continued in the quarter. But we did see a softening in Europe. And we did see, I would say that softening in Europe is primarily the UK. And in North America, we continue to see, I would say, very strong growth. And maybe the last point I'd make on plant-based is that we have seen an uptick in churn. So quite a bit of activity, let's say, of replacing current products that are in the market. So I would say an uptick in terms of acceleration in that turn where customers are working hard to put new versions, better tasting and better quality and better performing products in front of their consumers. So continue to be a lot of activity. I continue to be very optimistic about the opportunity there, but some volatility certainly in the quarter.

That's great. If I can just follow up quickly, I appreciate you don't want to give absolutes, but in terms of dairy versus plant-based meat, are you able to give any sort of quantum of dairy 3x the size for you or anything kind of just to give us the size?

Me could be this bigger child, but not significantly.

Thank you. So our next question comes from the line of John Enis from Goldman Sachs.

Please go ahead.

Hello, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. My first is on how you think about food service sensitivity during a recession. I guess you must be stress testing your own assumptions. So how do you think the food service channel could be impacted if we go into a more severe recession in Europe and the U.S.? Does it impact innovation rates for your customers, for instance? So a little bit of learning from previous recessions would be interesting on that channel. Then I've got two follow-ups really on CapEx and working capital again, so apologies. But on the CapEx guide of 300 million, I guess that leaves a lot to be spent in the second half. So can you maybe just give us some details with regards to where that money's going and how confident you are that you'll get to 300 million for the full year? And then on working capital, if we look at the average working capital movement, it was over 100 million, 113 million, better than the reported outflow. I guess I assume, therefore, that the average working capital outflow is going to be negative and arguably it should increase as it smooths some of the more recent monthly outflows, i.e. it picks up the 278 million outflow this half or the 184 million outflow of the full year. Is that the right way to think about that average working capital number or am I missing something? Thank you.

So maybe I'll take the last part of your question, John, first, and good morning. Just on the average working capital, firstly, I would say just from a year-on-year perspective, we do expect an increase in average working capital, primarily driven by the growth of the business and the inflationary environment. And then just in relation to the movements between the June period and the year end, as I mentioned, the primary drivers in relation to our expectation of a reduction in the working capital is the seasonality that I explained and also the curriculum that on-wind of the contingency stock. So hopefully that just gives you the clarification between the two.

In terms of CapEx, I would say, John, and thanks for the question, if Once you think of it primarily just around timing, the reality is that we've been very busy as it relates to building out our infrastructure over the last few years. Let's say with several new facilities and new expansions coming down the track at the end of last year, beginning of this year, we did divert some resources towards actually commercializing those facilities. for the volume that we knew that was coming through here in the first and second quarters. In terms of, let's say, the outlook for the year, we have several projects on the go. Maybe just one to note of scale is our new state of the art facility that we're putting in place in Indonesia. Then moving on to food service. Firstly, important for me to say that food service is well above 2019 levels, running at about 10% ahead of 2019 levels at the in the quarter and I would imagine that's well ahead of the market based on our own, let's say, best estimates. We do expect to continue to outperform, let's say, in the food service market. There is a lot of innovation happening there and I go back to the presentation there, the third section of the presentation where I talked about the key drivers and one of them that had not been there previously is this whole simplification of the back of house. That effectively is a new market for Kerry, and it's a market that was not there previously. It's an opportunity that wasn't there previously, and it's due to the fact that, let's say, players in this space are looking to reduce the amount of labor that they have to have in the back of the house. The other point here is that we will see some down trading or trading down within the channel. And please bear in mind that we have a good positioning in the channel with a weighting more towards chains and QSR and fast casual and coffee shops. And our sense of it is that that element of the channel will we'll do okay here in the next phase because consumers will actually trade down into those channels. But look, this is something we're going to have to see how it plays out in the coming months, but something that right now we feel is more of an opportunity than a risk at this stage.

Thank you very much. Thank you very much.

There are no further questions at this time. I turn the call back over to Mr. Lynch.

Thank you, operator. Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. If there are any further questions, just please reach out to the IR team, and we just wish you all a nice weekend. Thank you.

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.