Kerry Group plc

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I would like to welcome everyone to the full year results webcast and conference call. At this time, all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press the star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press the star followed by the one once again. Thank you. I will now hand the call over to Mr. William Nitch Head of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to Kerry's full year 2023 results call. I'm joined on the call by our CEO, Edmund Scanlon, and our CFO, Marguerite Larkin. Edmund and Marguerite will take you through today's presentation, and following this, we will open the lines up for your questions. Before we begin, please note the usual disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements. I will now hand over to Edmund.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. So beginning with slide four and the overview for 2023, where we delivered a solid overall performance and continued to strategically develop our business. In case nutrition, we delivered volume growth ahead of our markets, driven by growth in the food service channel, where we believe we are uniquely positioned. Dairy Ireland performance reflected the significant reduction in market prices in the year, which have now stabilized. On EBITDA, we delivered 60 basis points of margin expansion due to the benefits from our Accelerate program and portfolio developments. On cash, we had a strong performance with over 700 million free cash flow on the year. And returns were in line with our expectations, our flat year and year excluding currency. So a good overall scorecard in light of the varying market dynamics across the year. From a strategic perspective, we continue to make good progress and build on our significant recent portfolio developments. The acquisition of Proexcar strengthens our position in the LATAM meat market and provides a platform for business development in the Andean market. Greytown strongly compliments our leading authentic local taste position in China and expands our offering in the local food service channel. And the recently announced that is enzyme business acquisition further builds on our biotechnology capabilities, following the acquisitions of Selecta and NMICS, and extends our enzyme manufacturing footprint to three continents. We also divested our sweet ingredients portfolio during the year, as we continue to refine and develop our business in the areas where we believe we can create the most value. Next on organic investments, we continued to enhance and develop Kerry's global presence, including the expansion of our footprint in East Africa and the opening of our new authentic case facility in Tarawang in Indonesia to further support in key end-use markets across Southeast Asia. On capital returns, we increased our dividend again at a double-digit rate, which will mean an overall payout for the 2023 dividend of approximately 200 million euro. And we commenced an initial 300 million share buyback program during the last quarter of 2023, given market conditions and our strong cash generation. So we're pleased with our strategic and operational progress in 2023, thanks to the continued efforts of our people right across the organization. We will continue to develop our business for long-term success and remain agile and flexible as regards capital deployment, with a very clear priority of delivering the best return for our shareholders. So moving next to our case nutrition overview on slide five, where growth was driven by our strong performance in food service. Revenue for the division was seven billion in 2023, which included volume growth of 1.1%. While this is below the levels we're used to in our case nutrition business, it's important to recognize firstly our strong comparatives with almost 8% volume growth last year. And secondly, our volume growth represented a good market outperformance given the challenging market conditions which continued through the last quarter. Overall pricing for the year was up 1.1% as inflation in H1 turned to deflation in H2. EBITDA margin of 17% was up 50 basis points in the year with a strong H2 performance. From an induced market perspective, Volume growth was led by performance in dairy applications, in snacks through savory taste, and in meat with taste and texture systems. Looking at our channels, we achieved excellent growth of 9.3% in food service, while volumes in the retail channel were back 2.2% due to customary inventory management and softer market conditions and cases. And our emerging markets delivered 4.1% volume growth led by a strong performance in the Middle East in particular. Turning to slide six and case nutrition performance by region. The Americas delivered revenue of 3.8 billion, with overall volumes back 1.8% in the full year and 1.9% in Q4. This was primarily due to customer inventory management, which was a little more than expected at the year end, along with the effect of shrinkflation and softer demand across a number of end markets. While these dynamics affected overall performance in North America, in the retail channel in particular, we had good volume growth in snacks with taste-led innovations across global leaders, emerging brands, and private label brands. And dairy also performed well through taste systems innovations. In LATAM, we had overall growth in the year led by Mexico while Brazil experienced softer market conditions in the second half of the year. Moving to Europe, where we had revenue of 1.5 billion and overall volume growth of 2.9%. This was driven by an excellent performance in food service and across the UK and Ireland in particular. As expected, performance in the retail channels softened through the year, reflecting consumer dynamics given the recent inflationary environment. In AFMEA, we had revenue of 1.6 billion with overall volume growth of 6.2% led by a strong performance in our food service channel and in the Middle East across the year. China delivered good growth considering local market dynamics while performance in Southeast Asia was impacted by challenging market conditions for the second half of the year. Turning to slide seven and our end use market breakdown. As you can see from the chart, we had overall volume growth of 3% across our food end-use markets, driven by meat, through taste, texture, and preservation systems, snacks with savory taste and taste sense salt reduction technologies, and dairy with authentic taste innovations. In the beverage EUM, we had lower volumes due to customer inventory management and shrinkflation, partially offset by good performance with our botanical extracts and casein sugar reduction technologies.

And our global farmer-induced market had a good performance led by cell nutrition.

Moving to slide eight in Dairy Ireland, where performance in the year was impacted by the significant reduction in dairy market sales prices and constrained market supply dynamics. resulting in lower revenue for the year of 1.3 billion and EBITDA of 53 million. Overall volumes for the year were back 6.5%, with pricing back 9.3%. Dairy ingredients performance reflected the softer supply dynamics and lower dairy market prices, which has since stabilized. While dairy consumer products perform well, given the market context, led by growth in Kerry's branded cheese ranges. And with that, I now hand you over to Marguerite for the performance overview.

Thank you, Edmund, and good morning, everyone. Turning now to slide 10 and the group financial overview. Revenue for the year was 8 billion euro, reflecting a volume reduction of 0.9%. Overall group EBITDA margin increased by 60 basis points to 14.5%. driven by our Accelerate Operational Excellence Program and portfolio development. Group EBITDA of just under €1.2 billion. Organic EBITDA growth was more than offset by the effect of disposals and foreign currency translation. Adjusted earnings per share of €430.1 represented an increase of 1.2% in constant currency, and included a net dilution from M&A of 2%. We delivered return on capital employed of 10%, and I am pleased to say we achieved strong free cash flow of 701 million, representing 92% cash conversion with over 1 billion net cash from operating activities. Turning next to our group revenue bridge on slide 11. Overall, group reported revenue was 8.6% lower in the year, mainly driven by the portfolio impact and foreign currency. Group volume slightly backed by 0.9% and lower pricing of 0.7%. Foreign currency translation was 2.9% adverse, driven by movements in US dollar and the weakness of some emerging market currencies versus the euro. The positive contribution from acquisitions of 1.1% was more than offset by the impact from divestments of 5.1%, primarily relating to the disposal of the sweet ingredients portfolio and divestment of our businesses in Russia and Belarus in the prior year. Moving to slide 12 and our revenue analysis by division. On the left-hand side, you can see the breakdown of our revenue and volume performance, with taste and nutrition volume growth of 1.1%, being more than offset by the volume reduction in dairy Ireland. On the right-hand side, you can see the regional analysis of taste and nutrition's volume growth. This breakdown highlights the varied dynamics across our markets, with good performances in Europe and AFMEA in 2023, partially offset by the Americas. As Edmund mentioned, this overall growth was achieved against an exceptionally strong comparative performance in the prior year, particularly in the Americas. Turning now to our group margin bridge on slide 13. We delivered good overall group EBITDA margin expansion with an increase of 60 basis points in the year. Looking at the key moving parts, firstly, I am pleased to say that our Accelerate Operational Excellence Program delivered 40 basis points of margin expansion, which was ahead of our expectations. The portfolio actions we have taken contributed an F30 basis points expansion, primarily resulting from the disposal of our sweet ingredients portfolio. and pricing with net 10 basis points dilutive. For 2024, we are planning for another year of good margin expansion underpinned by operating leverage and mix, our accelerate operational excellence program, as well as positive effects from pricing and portfolio development. Next to free cash flow on slide 14. I'm pleased to say we generated free cash flow of 701 million in the year, with cash conversion of 92% on an average basis and above 100% on a point-to-point basis. The main drivers of free cash flow were as follows. Firstly, overall EBITDA, as I just mentioned, we delivered a very significant improvement in the average working capital, driven by a reduction in inventory levels, and improved receivables. And at the year end, our working capital investment levels improved year on year by 185 million. Income taxes paid increased 120 million, as previously indicated, and our net capital investment aligned to our strategic growth areas was 300 million, representing just under 4% of group revenue. Turning now to slide 15, I want to take a few moments to recap on the development of our cash and returns over recent years. Firstly on cash, we have made very good progress over the last couple of years in increasing our overall level of free cash flow generation and our cash conversion. This has been driven by improvements in our working capital, enabled by our Accelerate Operational Excellence program and the establishment of our GBS centers. Firstly, we have reduced inventory holding levels as a result of the actions we have taken in streamlining supply chain activities and optimizing our warehousing and distribution network. Investment in inventories has also benefited from the recent deflationary environment. Secondly, we have reduced working capital investments in receivables through centralization and process improvements enabled through our GBS locations. We are looking at 2024 as being another good year of cash conversion in excess of 80%. Moving now to our return on average capital employed, and firstly looking at the development of return on capital employed. The reduction on a reported basis from 10.3% to 10% in 2023 was driven by currency and on a constant currency basis would be flat year on year. Looking at our returns development over a broader timeframe, overall returns in recent years have reduced from over 12% in 2019, reflective of the market disruption as well as the significant work we have completed in rotating approximately 35% of our portfolio across this timeframe. It is also worth noting our returns development across the past number of years has been very much in line with the sector through this period of higher industry multiples. Until recently, the low cost of capital environment was more accommodative of lower initial acquisition returns. And our objective has been to increase their intrinsic return over the midterm, once effectively integrated into our synergistic platform. Given the change in the cost of capital over the past 12 months, we have increased our initial threshold for acquisitions, which means you should expect to see our returns increase over the coming years. moving back towards the 12% level. Our capital allocation framework on slide 16 is well balanced between reinvestment in our business and capital returns. You can see here the elements of our capital allocation framework. In terms of reinvestment, we will continue to invest in the organic development of the business and we will also look to continue to execute on M&A investment opportunities aligned to our strategy, similar to the recently announced lactase enzyme business and emerging market acquisitions that Edmund referenced earlier. In terms of returning capital to shareholders, firstly, we will continue to grow our dividends in double-digit terms consistent with our long track record. Secondly, and consistent with what I outlined back in October, given our strong cash generation in the year and the strength of our balance sheet, coupled with the current market context, including the change in the cost of debt and current sector share prices, we believe returning capital via share buybacks at this time is an attractive option to be deployed as part of our capital allocation framework. We are currently executing the 300 million share buyback program initiated in the fourth quarter of 2023, which is due to complete by the end of April. And post its completion, it is our intention at our Q1 results to announce details of a further share buyback program. So now turning to our debt profile and credit metrics on slide 17. Net debt at the end of December was 1.6 billion. As you can see, the profile of our debt is good with a well-spread weighted average maturity of 4.8 years. Our credit metrics are very strong with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.5 times and we have a very strong balance sheet which will continue to support the further development of our business. Finally, to cover off a number of other financial matters on slide 18. Finance costs of 50 million in the year reflected strong cash generation and interest income. Non-trading items were an overall net credit of 17 million, primarily relating to a net profit on disposals, partially offset by costs relating to our Accelerate Operational Excellence program. On the input costs, the inflation we had in the first half turned to deflation in the second half. We are currently looking at overall mid to high single-digit deflation in the first half of 2024, which we expect to moderate in the second half of the year. On taxation, the current outlook is for our tax rate to move towards 15% in 2024, which has been factored into our overall guidance. And on currency, the translation headwind on adjusted earnings per share in 2023 was 3.6%. And based on prevailing exchange rates, we are forecasting a relatively neutral impact on the EPS in 2024. To summarize on overall financial performance, we continued to make good progress across a number of areas in 2023, especially given the market backdrop. We delivered volume growth in taste and nutrition, good margin expansion, and a strong free cash flow performance in the year. So with that, I'll pass you back to Edmund.

Thanks, Marguerite. So before I move to the outlook for 2024, I just want to share with you why we feel strongly positioned for growth and margin expansion despite the current market dynamics. Moving to slide 20, and firstly on what we see as our three key growth differentiators. On sustainable nutrition, this is an area that we at Kerry are passionate about, as it goes to the very heart of what we do. Our aim is to support our customers in addressing the multitude of complex challenges and consumer demands, whether that be improving the nutritional profile or the sustainability credentials of their products. We see this as a mega trend with phenomenal potential and runway. As an innovation partner in helping our customers move along that sustainable nutrition spectrum. Then on food service, I think Kerry's unique positioning is pretty well understood at this point. But the defensive nature of our business and the food service channel is a little less so. I've spoken before about how the food service channel has consistently outperformed retail across the last decade. And our food service business has consistently outperformed the channel across that time frame. What's important to note is that we don't necessarily need the channel to be in growth for Kerry to grow. As we continue to develop our business with customers and gain deeper penetration with Kerry's offerings. Be that Back-of-house efficiency solutions, seasonal menu items are supporting customers with nutritional improvements. And then on emerging markets, we've spoken many times in the past about how our unique business model and broad technology portfolio are key enablers of our customers in emerging markets. We have a leading local presence across our emerging market footprint, and a strong track record of growth, which will continue to be a key underpin of our success in the coming years. Moving to EBITDA margins, again, where we see significant runway. We had a case nutrition EBITDA margin of 17% in 2023, and we're looking at strong margin expansion in 2024 and into the coming years. We're looking at operating leverage mix and portfolio to contribute, start to 100 basis points with another 100 basis points from our accelerate program and other initiatives to get us to over 19%. Thereafter, we're looking at a reversal of some of the mathematical effect of the significant recent inflation to get EBITDA margins to 20%. So finally, before we move to Q&A, I'd like to close out with our full year outlook. Firstly, our recent strategic portfolio developments and geographical expansion strongly position Kerry for continued market outperformance and good margin progression in the coming years. We will continue to develop our business and portfolio aligned for strategic priorities. And as we begin 2024, our innovation pipeline remains strong, however overall consumer market volumes continue to be muted. This is reflected in our guidance for the year of 5% to 8% constant currency adjusted earnings per share growth. So with that, I'd hand you back to the operator and we look forward to taking your questions.

Thank you.

At this time, I would like to remind our teleconference participants in order to ask a question, please press the star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad.

We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Charles Eden of UBS. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I'll limit it to two, and they're both actually on volumes. So, firstly, on the Q4 T&M volume performance, obviously slightly softer than you'd previously expected and obviously where consensus was. If there was a phasing impact here with orders shifting back into Q1 2024, are you able to quantify the extent of this impact, please? And then staying on volumes, on the low single-digit volume growth outlook for 2024, what are you assuming for the market growth here? I'd assume broadly flat, given your consistent outperformance to the market. And therefore, I guess, is there upside potential should the underlying market improve that you would end up sort of navigating closer to your medium term, sort of 4% to 6% than this current guidance?

Thank you.

Hi, Charles. I'll take those questions. Firstly, in Q4 volumes, maybe specifically zoning into North America, we did see some phasing between December and January. So volumes in December were a little bit softer than we expected in North America. And this is linked to a number of customers trying to optimize their year-end inventory levels. So we have seen a reversal of this in January. So therefore we are seeing the Americas back in growth actually at the beginning here of 2024. Then in terms of the outlook on volumes for case nutrition, we are assuming low single digit volumes. We are looking at an improvement year and year, and we do continue to outperform the markets. In terms of market volumes, we estimated 2023 to be back about 1% to 2%, probably closer to the 2% zone. And in 2024, we are expecting an improvement and to be, let's say, flat to flat to positive from an overall market perspective. I would say, look, we haven't baked in an uptick here in the second half of the year. What we have done at this moment in time is given you a good perspective on what we're seeing currently. Obviously, if volumes improve going out through the course of the year, we continue to be positive and confident that we will outperform the market by at least 2% from a volume perspective.

Understood. Thank you very much. And can I just quickly follow up on the phasing impact? I'm not expecting an exact number, but are we talking one percentage point, two percentage points in the Americas? Are you able to give us a rough guide of that phasing impact?

I can't give you a number, Charles, but fair to say that, look, we did come in a little bit shy of our expectations, and we have seen a reversal, I would say, in January, and we are back in growth in North America and in the Americas, which I think is the most important thing.

I appreciate that. Thank you very much, Charles. Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Higgins of Good Buddy.

Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. A couple of questions on my side. Maybe just sticking with the volume piece for TNN for 2024, could you just give us an idea of your assumptions by channel and maybe by region? If you're interested on food service sites, I guess. And then secondly, just in terms of... I guess your innovation pipeline and your discussions with customers around innovation. Have you seen much shift in dynamics around those discussions? Is it still kind of focused around affordability or is there a ramp up in terms of focus on a broader kind of factors across the pipeline, I guess?

Thanks, Patrick. Good morning. And I'll take those questions. I would say, firstly, on the innovation side, let's say 2023 was really, I'd categorize it as a year from an innovation perspective as a renovation year primarily. And we are seeing renovation continuing. But there also has been a pickup on innovation for 2024 launches. And we're seeing that across both CPG and private label launches. as well as obviously in food service as well. And this increased level of innovation from our customers is with the goal of driving category consumption in 2024. And I would say there's strong alignment there between manufacturers and retailers to drive volumes in 2024. So we have seen, let's say, an evolution, let's say, kind of more innovation building on top of the renovation we've seen in 2023. Then from a volume outlook perspective, firstly by region, Like I said, look, in the Americas, we expect to see a step up year and year and get back into growth in 2024, and we've already seen that in January. In Europe, look, consistent to what we've been saying throughout the second half of 2023, we are seeing that the significant inflation has tempered demand in the second half of 2023. And that's expected to continue into 2024 in Europe. And we're currently looking at flattish volumes in Europe, flattish to positive. And in the AFMEA region, we expect good mid-single-digit growth, similar to the second half of, or similar to 2023. Then from a channel perspective, look, we're looking at another strong year in food service. It's been a really strong performance, a continued strong performance in 2023 at the high single digit level. 2024 will be another good year in the food service channel. We're expecting, let's say, that channel performance to be in that mid single digit zone or strong mid single digit zone. And on retail, we expect to continue to see progress with overall volumes still remaining relatively muted, but at the same time looking at getting back to volume growth for the year.

That's perfect. Thank you. Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Nicola Tang of BMP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. The first is another on volumes. Sorry, so it keeps the same subject. But I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about apnea. I think you mentioned there's some weakness in Southeast Asia. I think, you know, Giveron talked about competition with the kitchen, people switching away from packaged to fresh. Do you think that's what's driving the weakness in your apnea business as well? Or do you think there's something else going on? And the second question was on the buyback. You know, you talked about the strength in cash generation and strict criteria around M&A. Obviously, I'm not expecting you to kind of size the next phase of your buyback, but I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about how you came up with the 300 million current program that you're running executed over quite a short timeframe. You know, should we expect something similar in terms of and small but frequent chunks. How are you thinking about FIBAP going forward?

Thanks. Thanks, Nicola. Thanks for the question. There was just a little bit of interference, but we'll do the best we can on, I think we got the grasp of the question. I would say in the AFMIA region, look, we expect good mid-single-digit growth. continuing for 2024. We do expect continued good growth in the Middle East, China to continue to show some progress and maybe Southeast Asia being a little bit, maybe it being a little bit challenging. I would say that we see food service or food service performance continuing to underpin our confidence around the growth levels that we're expecting in the AFMEA region. We're seeing an exceptional level, I would say, of innovation in the food service channel across the region. And we see this actually as a way to broaden some of the newer Let's say launches that are coming through the food service channel are actually moving from LTO or seasonal offerings back into the main menu. So we see ourselves continuing to grow market share in food service, and there continues to be a strong innovation pipeline in the food service channel, underpinning our confidence and growth across the region. I would say retail is a little bit more muted, for sure. We are seeing reference sizes being a little bit lower, and we're seeing slightly less innovation on the retail side. But all in all, I feel that the mix of our business, the diversity of our business, our channel diversity, our channel breadth, our customer breadth and depth, the scale of our footprint, both from a development and application perspective and manufacturing footprint perspective, we still would feel, you know, quite positive overall in the APMEA region. In terms of your specific questions in terms of, let's say, shifts, you know, to different types of consumption habits. We haven't really seen that as such. We have seen a particular, I would say, continued, I would say, strong performance in food service, driven primarily by local food service, local food service chains where we're very well positioned.

And Nicola, on the share buyback program, as I referenced, given the strong cash generation, it is our intention to announce details of the further share back program post the completion of the existing program, which is due to complete by the end of April. In terms of sizing the current program, from our perspective, our aim here is very much to have an efficient and strong balance sheet, while also continuing to have a strong investment grade rating, and importantly, retaining capacity to invest in the strategic development of the business. So that's very much the driver in terms of how we look at the sizing. And again, as I said, our focus here is around remaining agile and flexible. very much in terms of assessing the different capital allocation options to create the most value both in the medium term and the long term for shareholders. And on the specifics of the further share buyback, as I mentioned, we will update further at the Q1 results.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Alex Jones of BOA. Please go ahead. Morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got two around capital allocation, if that's all right. The first on this sort of new return threshold on M&A, can you give any more sort of numbers on quantifying that and maybe a sort of a case study? Clearly, you've announced the acquisition of the M&A. nevonesis lactase business since then could you talk about you can calculate the initial return but how you intend to drive that into i guess what's double digit territory which would probably be your around your new threshold um and then second just on capex i think you know the cmd a couple of years ago you talked about four to five percent of sales as being the level you would expect to be at but you've been materially below that in the past two years so i Is that driven by efficiencies or a different belief in sort of medium-term growth or anything else that's been pushing CapEx down?

Thank you. I might kick off here, Alex, and Marguerite might want to add. Maybe just on the CapEx point first. I would say that 300 million zone is the zone that – one should be thinking about in terms of CapEx for Kerry. So in that four to 5% zone going forward. 2022 was lower than that. We flagged that at the time in the context of just purely timing. We had a number of new facilities being commercialized through the course of 2022 that had been constructed. over the COVID period in 2020 and 2021. And we just reallocated resources to commercialize those facilities as opposed to starting new projects. In 2023, at, you know, 300 million, let's say 300, 300 million plus in terms of CapEx, and that 4% to 5% zone, That is the zone that one should be thinking about for CapEx for us going forward. And that really is about putting capacity in the ground for future growth in the business. In terms of M&A, Marguerite will add to this, but maybe specifically on the lactase enzyme business, we've already put out an announcement around the business. You will see from, let's say, what we've already put out that, let's say, this acquisition was in, let's say, a zone that one could argue was, let's say, it was a very good deal for Kerry. Lactose-free and lactose-free dairy is a category that's growing and outperforming, especially in the North America region where this business is actually least penetrated. So we see significant opportunity both from a growth perspective and a margin accretion perspective to drive this business forward. And we're excited about the closing of this business, which we expect at the end of April this year.

And just in relation to my comments on raising the hurdle rates, It's very much, as I outlined, reflective of the interest rate environment. We have moved the return on M&A out of the box from a mid-single-digit zone into the high single-digit zone in terms of expectations and looking for those acquisitions to move towards the double-digit 12% return in a five-year timeframe. And obviously, we'll evaluate each acquisition on a case-by-case basis, but as a general rule, the uptick in the target reflects the changed environment.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Kenny of Davey. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Two quick questions from my side. Firstly, on working capital from a cash perspective, what's your expectations for 24, given the progress achieved in 23? And second question relates to T&N. Any expectations of a benefit from your private label activities in 24? Thank you.

Thanks, Kyle. I'll kick off here. I would say a private label, when we look at that opportunity, for sure we have seen our customer base actually pick up on their strategies around driving their own private label brands. So we've seen an evolution of the strategy amongst retailers to actually invest behind their brands, which is a little bit of a different strategy to what we've seen previously where it was about national brand equivalents. So this is something that we've seen evolve during the course of 2023. We have seen, I would say, a significant uptake in the level of engagement with customers around our private label brands. We have a number of launches in the pipeline through the course of 2024. So what we have in the pipeline right now, we have baked into the overall guidance. We're just gonna have to see how it plays out, but it is something that is evolving in our business. And it is an area where we have reallocated some resources towards the second half of 2023 and into 2024.

And on working capital, Kyle, on your question, on working capital investments, we don't expect significant increase year on year to support the growth of the business. As you referenced, yes, we had a very good performance in 2023. We've made very good progress in driving efficiencies in our working capital with an improvement overall of seven days. So our focus really going forward is continue to optimally manage the working capital to deliver growth, maintain the efficiencies that we've driven through in the current year. So I do see our working capital at the end of the year is pretty optimized. There may be some opportunity for improvement in our average working capital, but again, not calling out any significant change year on year. I would say overall we expect another year of good cash conversion in 2024 in excess of 80% on an average working capital basis.

Thank you. Sure. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alex Sloan of Barclays.

Please go ahead.

Yeah, hi, morning all. Just a quick one from me. Just on Dairy Island, I mean, you talked, I think, about the pressures having now eased. What sort of rebound, if any, are you expecting in Dairy Island EBITDA within your guidance? And any update on the thinking regards to kind of strategic place for this division within the portfolio? Thanks.

Thanks, Alex. Look, as we said before, we will continue to selectively invest in the Dairy Ireland business. And like we've said in the past, we will always remain open-minded in terms of how best to create shareholder value. In terms of the, let's say, how the year finished and the outlook, One should be thinking about Dairy Ireland in the context really of EBITDA and EBITDA evolution. So with 53 million being the EBITDA for 2023, we're expecting 2024 to be in that 60 million or 60 million plus zone EBITDA for 2024. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Charles Bentley of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I've just got one. Can I just confirm, going back to the question around volumes earlier and just the kind of the way that you're basing out the guide in terms of end market outgrowth, can I just confirm what you kind of define as the end market on that basis? Because you're saying volumes at the end market you're assuming are something like flattish, but obviously if it's comparing to To Piers, you all saw a lot of de-stockings. You should see some base level of growth, even if the kind of the eventual end market is flat. So I just want to be clear, is the end market basically customers or is the end market Piers? Thanks.

Thanks, Charles. The end markets we're talking about is our own markets and it's the markets we play in across food service and retail. And we've estimated those markets based on our latest estimates to be flat or flat to positive for 2024. And our expectation is that we will outperform those markets by at least 2%.

And then, sorry, just for a follow-up, I guess, in terms of the impact from destocking in 23, is that kind of, would you estimate that a couple, 2%?

We're just going to have to see how it plays out through the course of the year, Charles. Cool. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Lionel Fulvio Gasol of Barenburg. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I've got a couple. The first one is on the 20% T&N margin ambition in 2026. I was just wondering if you're still happy with this ambition, given that volumes last year and volumes, it sounds like volumes this year, are going to be a little bit below what you would have anticipated maybe when you set that target in 2022. And then my second question is, you know, given the uncertainty on market volume growth, I mean, are you still confident that you can deliver 4% to 6% volume growth in TNM over the medium term? Or Is there an opportunity here for you to, you know, would you consider revising this target to something more like, you know, market growth plus 2%? Is that something that you're thinking about? Thank you.

Thanks, Paul Biot. I might take those questions in terms of the medium-term targets. And I think the short answer here is that we believe our medium-term algorithm is very much intact. So on volumes for taste and nutrition, we expect to continue to outperform our markets and get back into mid-single-digit volume growth once the underlying market conditions pick up. And when we average the volumes over the lifetime of the plan, our expectation will be that we will be in that 4% to 6% zone. On EBITDA margin, look, we were very deliberate today to outline how we plan to get to the zone of the 20% EBITDA for taste and nutrition over the next three years. And key to that is the 100 basis points of operating leverage mix and portfolio. 100 basis points from efficiency initiatives over the next three years. And this, I think, is important also to note that it's very much in line with our recent track record. Over the last two years, we've delivered 80 basis points of operating leverage mix and portfolio and 60 basis points from efficiency initiatives. And on cash, you saw from Marguerite's presentation that we are generating good cash conversion. And based on the improvements we've made, our expectations for continued good cash conversion going forward. And then in returns, like we said in the presentation, we expect to evolve our returns towards the 12% zone in the coming years and to be in the 10% to 12% window over the course of the plan. So this is something we are very deliberate about, very conscious of, very focused on. And as we look at all the moving pieces, we feel confident about the go forward based on the strategies that we're implementing and executing against. And we're very much in the zone of controlling the controllables and feel that we're pulling every lever to control the controllables.

Thank you for that. Thank you. There appears to be no further questions at this time. Mr. Edmund Scanlon, Chief Executive Officer, I turn the call back over to you.

Thanks. So thanks everyone for joining our call so early this morning. We appreciate your interest in Kerry and all your questions and we look forward to meeting many of you in the coming days and weeks. Just by way of reminder, we will be presenting at Cagney next Thursday. You'll find the details of this presentation on our website, along with upcoming results dates. And we will be hosting an investor day in the U.S. on October 8th. So please mark your diaries. And if you have any further questions, don't hesitate to get in touch with our investor relations team. So all the best and thank you.

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.