MHP SE

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to MHP's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Please note that this call is being recorded. Following the presentation, there will be a question and answer session. I will now hand over to Anastasia to begin the presentation.

Thank you very much. Dear stakeholders, good afternoon and good morning. Thank you for joining us today at MHP's conference call. which is dedicated to the third quarter and nine-month results. I'm Anastasia Sobatyuk, Director of Investor Relations. Together with CFO of MHP, Victoria Kapelushnaya, we will discuss MHP's financial and operational, as well as the current operational environment and expectations for 2023 and going forward, taking into account that the war in Ukraine continues. Today's call is based on a press release and financial statements released earlier today. However, during our call, we will discuss our projections and plans based on our assumptions, domestic and international trends. Please take it into account. I hope you follow our presentation, and we are on page number three, slide number three. So a few words about macroenvironment. First of all, an update about the war. The war in Ukraine was intensive fighting in the south and east of the country and irregular but frequent rocket and drone attacks against civilian infrastructure across Ukraine continue. The bombing campaign aimed at undermining the country's economic capability shows no sign of abating, unfortunately. We expect missiles attacks on the energy infrastructure specifically to intensify in the near days and weeks as winter is approaching rapidly. Macroeconomic situation. Taking into account that many businesses have been adjusting to a new operational environment which remains unpredictably volatile, together with the insignificant level of support provided by international partners, we, Ukrainians, are grateful for and in Q3 2023 GDP growth was at around 8%, following a rise of more than 19% in the second quarter. Forecasted GDP growth in 2023 is expected to be around 5%. CPI slowed down to approximately 1.5% and expected to be around 6% annually. Regarding foreign exchange, NBU implemented foreign exchange flexibility just recently, which resulted in insignificant appreciation of the local currency. With regard to harvest in 2023, Ukraine has good and other strong results, one of the record harvests, given that the weather conditions were favorable, and therefore yields are expected to be strong. Harvest is expected to be over 75 million tons, of which 50 million tons potentially can be exported with significant logistic challenges. At the same time, please take into account that international grain prices continue to decrease, while logistic costs for exports continue to grow. Moreover, Polish strikes at the border do not facilitate exports in general. Let me now proceed with the company's results for the third quarter of the year. We go to slide number 5 of our presentation. Let me start with operational highlights for the nine months of 2023. First of all, it should be noted that operational and financial results in nine months 2022 were severely impacted by the onset of the war, making year-on-year comparison difficult. Powder sales increased by 13% in nine months 2023, driven mainly by exports, which increased around 21% year-on-year. despite different logistic challenges either driven by the war or by the restrictions set by neighbor countries. Total share exports out of total poultry sales volume increased to 58% from 54%. Financial results for the nine months of 2023 were following. Group's revenue increased by 22% and reached over 2.2 billion US dollars, which Export revenue representing 60% of total revenue. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 20% to 329 million US dollars, mainly driven by high export volumes of poultry, meat, and vegetable oils, as well as lower wall-related expenses. And net debt to EBITDA ratio constituted 2.51. Let's go on slide number six with key financials for the third quarter of 2023. Group's revenue, as you can see, remained relatively stable and reached 739 million US dollars. At the same time, the results of the poultry and grain segments in Q3 2023 are lower compared to Q2 2023, mainly caused by decrease in price for poultry meat and grain on international market, and this negative trend continues in Q4 2023. Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 8% year-on-year to $111 million with EBITDA margin of 15%, down as a result of significant lower low profitability in grain segments as a result of depressed grain prices. We now move on to slide number 7 of the presentation, where we can see the financial results by segments. Before presenting the results, let me draw your attention to the change of the presentation of segment information. In order to accurately reflect the diverse nature of the group's business operations and improve the granularity of reporting, from this report MHP has implemented changes to its presentation of business segmentation information. These changes include introduction of new vegetable oil operations segment, which represents production and sales of vegetable oil and related products. Consolidation of all meat production operations under the poultry and processed meat and related operations segment. combining grain operation and milled cattle farming in the agriculture operational segment. And of course, comparative results for the nine-month period ended 30 September 2022 have been restated. As you can see now from this slide, poultry and processed meat operations remained our key segment. The group generated the majority of total revenue, about 55%, and 79% of the company's EBITDA. Vegetable oil operations generated 21% of the revenue and contributed around 22% to the EBITDA. The European operating segment generated approximately 18% of total revenue and 20% of the company EBITDA. Grain segment this year generated 6% of total revenue and has negative contribution to the company's EBITDA. and Victoria will provide you with more colors on the drivers. Let us have a closer look at each business segment now. Here I pass my word to Victoria.

Thank you, Anastasia. Good afternoon, everyone. Let's have a precise look at poultry and processed meat and related operation segment performance. Slide number eight. As Anastasia mentioned, this segment includes poultry meat and processed meat products ready to cook and ready to eat. Despite a number of difficulties due to the war in Ukraine, MHP delivered a quite good result in Q3 thanks to combination of market environment and enormous amount of work undertaken by MHP team. Poultry export price in Q3 decreased by 2% Q2Q, mainly in EU and UK market. Based on assumption that international poultry price correlates with price trend grains, we don't see poultry price opportunity for increase. Poultry meat price in Ukraine increased by 4% in Q3 compared to the Q2, driven mainly by increase in sales volume of high margin product, namely filet. MHP is commonly exposed to commodity price risk. To mitigate this risk, we continue to focus more and more on non-commodity products ready to eat and ready to cook. and follow MHP culinary transformation strategy. However, penetration and increasing our share of this market requires a lot of efforts and expenses as today and in the near future. In Q3, we continue to increase sales volume of processed meat with focus on the most marginal product. Our strong result for nine months we made possible by the fact that our team was able to exceed their forecast expectation for average meat price across all market in comparison to the price in nine months 2022. Let's move to the slide number nine, vegetable oil operation segment. Sales of vegetable oil increased significantly, mainly driven by increase in production of flour cake due to the both additional crushing capacity and change in a receipt as well as partially restoration of logistic rules compared to the 2022. In nine months, we had additional positive effect on vegetable oil operation result due to deferable ratio of price both for sunflower seed and oil. Currently, we see a negative trend in sunflower oil prices, which may lead to decrease of oil crushing margin. Let's move to the slide number 10, agricultural operations segment. Increase three, international grain price continue to decrease. It is important to highlight the due to continuous rocket strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure and termination of grain deal by Russia, export price for grain from Ukraine is significantly low compared to the international price. Obviously, these circumstances negatively affect the profitability of MHP grain results as well as all agri-producers in Ukraine. So today MHP harvesting campaign is complete on around more than 300,000 hectares of land. Corn harvested is more than 82% complete. Sunflower, soya, wheat, and rapeseed are 100% completed. Yield across all crops are significantly better than last year. It is one of the record harvest of history MHP. Despite of record yield, EBD8 of agricultural operation segment, net yield IFRS 16, in H1 was negative and resulted minus 32 million compared to the positive result, 55 million last year. This result was mainly driven by significant decrease in international growth prices, which continue to decline in Q3, as well as increased logisticals due to the low expected That is why we expect that our profitability in grain segment in 2023 harvest to be close to zero. Let's proceed to the slide number 11, several words about our European operation segment. APDA with European operation segment in nine months increased to 67 million, mainly due to increase in sales volume and also price for poultry meat and poultry product. This was driven by increase in horticulture sales channel as well as due to increase in sales of sausages. Slide 12. few words about our cash flow and liquidity position. First flow from operation before changes in working capital amount to 315 million compared to the 379 last year. This amount includes payment on February 23, part of deferred interest payment agreed with creditors in March 2022. A release of working capital amount to $80 million in nine months this year, mostly due to, first, return of stock of chicken meat and vegetable oil to normal levels from unusual high amounts in 2022, caused by disrupted logistics due to the war actives, that has partially recovered afterwards due to the grain deal and diversification of delivery roads by the group. Secondly, low investment in raw material during the nine months 2023, energy supplies, fertilizer, plant protection materials, animal feed components comparing to the same period last year to relative stabilization of situation in Ukrainian economy and low risk of disruption in supply. Stable amount of trade account receivable compared to significant growth in sunflower oil and chicken meat receivable during the nine months last year. However, it should be noted that investment in working capital with substantial increase in Q4 resulting in substantial cash outflow due to the future requirement purchasing of sunflower seeds, fertilizer and plant protection materials. Total CAPEX in nine months amounted to approximately 160 million, and mainly related to purchase of diesel generators at the beginning of this year to mitigate the impact of possible power outages. High investment in cost optimization and culinary strategy projects. maintains a new product development and improving an expansion of Perutninab to production facilities. Regarding debt, by the end of the period, the company total debt was nearly $1.5 billion and net about $1.1 billion. Last week, the group completed tender offer and purchased tender notes for amount $151 million. for 128 million using disbursement funds from IFI facility and own cash. The liquidity position at the end of Q3 was 446 million in cash, only 50% of which was hold by group subsidiary outside in Ukraine, It is important to note that according to the rule instituted by the National Bank of Ukraine, the foreign currency proceeds of exports from Ukraine must be repatriated to Ukraine, which in principle limits our ability to utilize the offshore cash for debt repayment. In November 2023, The National Bank of Ukraine decreased the maximum settlement period from 6 to 3 months for repatriated cash from the export of agricultural products. And as a reminder, there is still a restriction on capital movement from Ukraine, therefore debt servicing and principal repayment are prohibited. Given current operation environment and significant uncertainty, we estimate our minimum safe cash balance at $200 million. And now I give the floor to Anastasia for update and outlook.

Thank you, Victoria. Definitely, we continue facing all challenges, instabilities, and disruptions associated with the war. Although the situation in Ukraine remains fluid and highly uncertain while the war is ongoing, the group's Ukrainian operations continue. So poultry, vegetable oil and grain operations continue to operate at close to 100% capacity utilization. And of course, the culinary transformation is on its way. When it comes to outlook for 2024, we expect further downward correction in global poultry prices in the coming months. High logistic costs are expected to continue into 2024, especially for exports. Grain prices in Ukraine and internationally are expected to remain depressed. remain on the downside as international poultry or protein prices correlate further with the downward trends in the grain market. I think I should stop here and conclude the presentation, and we are ready for discussion. We are ready for your questions. To ensure that all participants on today's call have equal opportunities, please follow the rule that one participant can answer the questions. Thank you for cooperation.

Thank you. So we will now move to the question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star two on your phone and wait to be prompted. If you're dialed in by the web, you can type your question in the box provided or request to ask a voice question. So we'll just give it a moment or two for the questions to come in. So our first question comes from Stella Critch from Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi there, everyone. Many thanks for all the updates on the call. I wanted to ask about the new bank financing that you obtained. I noticed in the press release today the amount available had gone up from when you made the tender announcement. I was just wondering if you could talk about why that amount was increased and whether you expect this to be fully available you know, through to the maturity date to cover the bonds, that would be great.

Yes, thank you for your question, yes. IFI loans is available for further drawdown, but what is very important to know, subject to fulfilment of some conditions, yeah. especially no adverse material changes, no event of default, no breach of covenants, and yeah, with this condition, yeah.

And what was the reason the sizes increased?

Size, yeah, because we took approximately 300 up to, total amount around up to 400, including loan for CAPEX.

I mean, could you just perhaps, sorry if I'm not following fully, just explain the breakdown.

the total amount available and which part would be available to today total amount of IFI financing available yes for refinancing bond just total amount 270 and plus yeah we have the loan from IFI 80 million 80 million for CapEx that's great many thanks for clarifying I'll go back in the queue

Thank you. Our next question comes from Konstantin Chinarov from Aptio Capital who asks, would you consider opening a tender offer to bondholders of 2026 and 2029 Euro bonds? So the question was, would you consider opening the tender offer to bondholders of 2026 and 2029 Eurobonds?

Yeah, thank you for repeating the question because unfortunately we did not catch. No, it's very difficult to say because, yeah, everybody understands with very difficult conditions and we live now, yeah, and the first task for us to solve problem, we scarred our Eurobond 2024.

Okay, thank you. Just a reminder, if you have a question, please press star two or type it in the box if you're dialed in by webcast. So our next question comes from Dimitri Ivanov from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hi, Nastassia, Victoria. Many thanks for the presentation and updates. I think like in Q3, you repaid certain bank facilities for approximately $100 million. Could you please provide more color on this repayment? Because you mentioned in the presentation that any principal repayments are prohibited, according to the National Bank of Ukraine. But how did you manage to repay these bank facilities for this amount during Q3 2020? whether like local facilities settled and why did you decide to repay these facilities? That's my first question. The second question would be on this availability of this 270 million. So could you specify the availability period for this facility? Will it be available, let's say, next year before... So, any color on the availability will be helpful. Thank you.

Thank you for your question. Especially, thank you for the first question. Yes, exactly. We repaid 100. Yeah, it is PXF financing from EBRD. And you understand that EBRD and JFC have the special status and it's possible to repay this loan. And PXE we must repay because we decrease our stock of sunflower seeds and that is why we repaid this loan. Regarding the second question about availability period until the maturity, until the 10th of May next year.

Thank you very much. And these PXE facilities, Do you have any availability under the PXF facilities? Because I imagine you should invest in working capital. Do you have access to this PXF facility? And if so, what is the committed limits under this PXF facility for now? Thank you very much.

Yeah, you know that Eberdea took part in... together with other IFI and with Facility of Refinancing Eurobend and now we in negotiation with EBRD about prolonging it. Right now, yes, we have some issues about this.

And how do you plan to manage it to use like your cash balance to fund this working capital?

Yes, it is completely understandable. We would like to attract these facilities, but yes, we have some process about this. Because for us it would be the most important thing to get facilities for refinancing here abroad. Because we want to solve this problem.

Okay, okay. Thank you very much. Thank you. So we have a follow-up question from Stella at Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi there. Many thanks. If it's possible to ask about the NBU restrictions, I mean, does this mean that you have to repatriate all of this hard currency cash balance that you have, or is there part of it that you're able to retain offshore? And how do you plan to service the external debt from an interest point of view in the coming years? year if the restrictions are still in place, that would be great.

Yeah, your question about is this amount in offshore today, yes, outside in Ukraine, yeah? This was your question, what is the amount of today, yeah? Right now, yes, we have outside right now is approximately, because you understand that when we talk about the outside, we talk about the MHP and Perutnina, and Perutnina is the other situation, yeah? In MHP today we have approximately, today, yeah, approximately 130 million outside. And I talk about the NBU restriction and anyway we need to repatriate this money to Ukraine and now during the three months, yeah, and yeah, we understand for us it is, yes, yeah, we understand that we have the sum. problem how we continue to repay and especially paid coupon and bond. To be honest, we're very happy that we have this DeFi facility for refinancing because it is a real big issue for us.

Sure, that all makes sense. But just in terms of actually making the interest payments, I mean, can you use this DFI facility or what other sources of cash might you be able to use for that?

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Yeah, we have this special proposition, the limitation. Yeah, we must use this facility only for refinancing principle. Yeah, we cannot use for something else.

Sure, sure. Okay, that's understood. So to cover the interest, what would be the main plan?

We try until today, we try to use our cash which we keep in offshore. And to be honest, we ask national bank to provide some liberalization because we understand it is just not MHP and other big Ukrainian company have completely the same situation with banks, with Eurobonds. But unfortunately, we have what we have.

Okay, that's understood. And maybe if I could just ask to clarify, so you said the EBRD has special treatment, so you're able to make interest payments to them. Is that also the case for DFC and IFC who are on the new facilities?

Yeah, you're completely right, the same status, yeah. Yeah, fortunately, I-5, EBRD, IFC, DFC, they have completely the same status, and it's possible to pay, yeah, to pay. Yeah, and reasonable and interest.

Okay. Many thanks for the clarification. Thanks a lot.

Thank you.

Thank you. Just a final reminder, if you have a question, please press star two. We'll just wait another 10 to 20 seconds or so to see if there's any other questions. So actually, we have a question from Natalia Spigotska from Dragon Capital. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. Thank you very much for the presentation. May I please also check company's cash balance as of now? Thank you.

Yeah, thank you for your question. Right now, approximately $350.

Perfect. Thank you. Thank you.

Okay, thank you. We have a question from Vidyavira from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks for the presentation. Question about working capital. You mentioned that there is some outflow expected in 4Q. So if you could give some color. And second question about grain prices in Ukraine. Can you give us some sense on... how much they are below international prices. Thank you.

Thank you for your question. Regarding the first question, as I told you during the presentation, yes, in the first quarter we have investment in working capital, mostly related because, as usual, in the first quarter we buy stock on sunflower seeds, We buy fertilizer and we expect that our investment is around $100 million. And always we have some uncertain play regarding the reimbursement VAT. Our expectation, not just expectation, regarding our forecast and calculation, We expect that we receive around 40 million, but it is always a big issue. Yeah, that is why our investment in working capital is approximately 100, and if something regarding reimbursement, maybe 130. But we will see what situation with IT reimbursement. Regarding the second question, what is the difference between international price and Ukrainian price, what I can say is that I know that, for example, it's very important, if tomorrow war will stop, Ukraine price will increase approximately, if you speak about the grain, approximately in Ukraine by 40-50 dollars. We understand that current situation and situation with war Decrease prime for Ukrainian agro-producer is minimum by 50, depends of crops, by 50-40 dollars. Thank you.

Thank you. We have a follow-up question from Dimitri at Jefferies.

Please go ahead. Just a quick follow-up question on this facility. that you signed with DFIs. You mentioned 80 million available utilization. Is my understanding correct? Is that purely for CapEx spent? So, for example, you can't use it to fund working capital, so basically you expect it to fund your capital expenditure needs. but potentially next year or like if you can share any color would be great.

Yeah, you're completely right. We can use only for CapEx and for some potential, for some particular project. Yeah, you're completely right. not just for working needs, not just for maintenance purpose, yeah, and you understand how for MHP is very important, yeah, so to provide maintenance purpose, yeah, but no, we can use just for special purpose, for special projects.

And just to double check, only 270 million is available for like bond refinancing, and just I want to double check, Is it something that could be increased? Is there an opportunity for this amount to go up? I just want to understand if there is no way you think you could increase this amount for the additional bond buybacks because the amount outstanding is higher. You still have $350 million of bonds outstanding versus $270 million. I just want to understand how you plan to to narrow this gap. Thank you.

Yeah, yeah, sorry, maybe I did not catch your main sentence. Yeah, yeah, 270, yes, it is a real available amount from DFI financing, for refinancing, only for refinancing Kyivra bond.

Yeah, but do you plan to increase this amount? Because you still have 350 million bond outstanding, right? Yeah. Is there any discussion?

It would be great. It would be great if I can increase this amount. But yeah, fortunate, unfortunately, not fortunate. Unfortunately, it's very difficult. Yeah, it's very difficult. Even today, I cannot imagine where I can attract additional long term financing.

Yeah. Yeah, sorry. Okay, understood. So, okay, thanks for the call.

Thank you. We also have a follow-up question from Vidyavira at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Thank you. I just wanted some color on pricing that you are seeing in international and domestic. We saw some increase in Ukrainian market. So do you expect that to remain stable? And in international markets, do you expect further weakening from 3Q levels, or do you think that it has stabilized now? Thank you.

Thank you very much for your question. Yeah, regarding domestic price, yeah, you understand that level of inflation is this year in Ukraine approximately by 9-10%. Yeah, and next year, yeah, according to National Bank, inflation, level of inflation will be forecast, yeah. Approximately the same. At the same time, we don't expect to increase price in domestic market. Maybe just slightly increase because changes mix, because we have the strategy to go to the more culinary company, culinary product, but it's not very significant. Regarding international price, what we see right now is that price in Europe in the UK we see the price right now slightly decrease and we understand that in general when price of grain decrease price of meat is a cycle the price of meat will decrease but with lack in time that is why we do If you ask me about trend with price for next year, yeah, we don't expect that price international or Ukrainian price will increase. We don't expect. Yeah, and we see the risk, it's very strong this risk, the international price will decrease because now it is a price, international grain price, now is very low level. Thank you.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you. We have a question from Erica Ive at MetLife. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. I would like to go back for a moment to the IFI facilities. You mentioned that you have an outstanding balance to draw down of $217 million and debt repayment and in addition to that 80 million for capex and that brings me to 350 million but if i look at the press release you are saying that you have a total facility of 480 million and you have uh you're gonna use 107 million so um If I look at the math, you should have available 373 million, not 350 million. Am I missing something?

Okay, yes, you're completely right, but we use approximately 130 for repayment of the bond which we buy during the tender. Because you understand that we are settlement. A few days ago we were settlement our tender for 151 and we used this money, I-5 money.

yeah but basically part of the tender was funded by you and then you draw down the facility only for 107 million at least is what i read in the press release

Yes, I will explain. Yeah, and because yeah, it's very yes, it's very precise calculation. I find don't provide IFI's don't provide money for discount for how to say for initial amount of bonds yeah we buy our bonds total amount 151 but we paid for these bonds 128 and different of these yeah 23 million IFI will not provide to us you understand my point you understand my point yeah okay thank you

and then of the repatriation rule that you're saying that it moved to 90 days from 180 days for some specific agricultural products what is it included i mean i guess poultry is excluded and what is included in these specific agricultural products and how much revenues in total, basically, that entail.

Yes, today includes just grain and sunflower oil. It is approximately 40% of total our export, 40 and 45 maybe percent of total our export. And I am not sure, and to be honest, I have a lot of concern that maybe tomorrow this, yeah, maybe poultry and other product will include. You understand my point?

Okay, I see. And then, thank you. Just a last quick question is that are you considering another tender offer for the 2024 bonds?

Yeah, no. It's very good question. It's very good question. Yeah. No, we will think about Yeah. Well, thank you very much.

Yeah. Thank you.

Okay, thank you. So I'm not seeing any more voice questions. Anastasia will follow up separately to follow up on any remaining text questions. So perhaps at this point I can hand back to Anastasia and Victoria for closing remarks.

Thank you very much, Keith. Thank you very much, everybody, for participation in our call. dedicated to the third quarter results. Thank you for all your questions. And of course, if you have follow-up questions, please feel free to contact us. We will be glad to answer them. In case you need a call with us, please send us a message. We will be glad to make a call. So have a lovely day and bye.

Thank you. Bye. That concludes the call for today.

Thank you and have a nice day.