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4/9/2026
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Gailie, your chorus call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the METLIN Energy and Metals PLC conference call to present and discuss the METLIN full year 2025 financial results. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Evagelios Mitilineos, Executive Chairman, Mr. Christos Gavalas, Group CEO, Ms. Fotini Ioannou, Group CFO, and other senior executives. Mr. Mitilineos, you may now proceed.
Hi, welcome. everyone who joined us today in the 2025 results conference call. All materials have been made available earlier today and can be found on our website. As already said, I'm joined today by Christos Gavalas, CEO, and Ms. Fotini Ioannou, Group CFO. I speak to you in my capacity as an executive chairman for the first time. Please let me say a few words about the key highlights of the 2025 financial results. Revenue increased by 25%, reaching a new record level and exceeding the 7 billion mark for the first time in our history, underscoring our strong growth momentum. On the other hand, EBITDA and earnings per share reflect a more challenging picture as they have been affected by the problems that we have already communicated with regards to our MPP division. Despite good performance of the core business amid a tough environment, EBITDA was down to $753 million. in line with the updated guidance we provided earlier this year. What is crucial is to see here the underlying power of our core business. MPP, although representing a non-core legacy business, has caused disproportionate losses. In light of this, we had to take immediate action and go ahead with unpleasant measures and difficult changes. Myself, alongside with Christos and Fotini and senior management, we are here to tell you about all the measures taken and drastic changes we have made to make sure this is properly addressed and left to the past. Today, I can confirm that the MPP responsible for past issues no longer exists in its previous form, and the focus will be shifted more on storage, DCs and grids, in addition, data centers, that is, grids, in addition to our conventional REST business. That is, the previous MPP has been absorbed by the previous MRES, and this is now one division. Turning to net profits, this amount is $315 million. Our liquidity remains strong, providing us with the flexibility to both navigate the current environment and continue investing, even as 2026 represents our peak CapEx year. At the same time, we remain committed to our dividends set at one euro per share, representing an increased payout specifically and only for 2025, and reflecting our confidence for 2026. I remind you that our traditional payout on dividends was 35% of net profitability. We make an exception today to compensate our shareholders for their loyalty and their devotion to the company. This decision is based also on our view that 2025 was an exceptional and temporary setback and that has the reported net income does not fully capture the underlying profitability of the business. As 2025 is now behind us, It is important to note that 2026 finds us having achieved a key strategic milestone with our relisting on the London Stock Exchange and inclusion in the FTSE 100 list, a powerful validation of our strategy and a first for a Greek multinational. About one year ago, during our Capital Markets Day, that was April 25th, In London, we outlined a clear roadmap towards our medium-term objectives targeting a new level of approximately 1.9 to 2.1 billion in EBITDA. Medium term stands for 2028 to 2030. In addition to our existing activities, areas such as critical metals, including gallium, Circular methodology and scaling up to our defense business are expected to further support our financial performance. During 2025, we have strengthened our corporate governance through big three organizational changes designed to ensure that we remain ahead of market developments and meet our growth objectives. I'm sure you have all realized that I have personally abandoned the dual role of chairman and CEO and I am very happy to have Christos Gavalas as CEO in the group. In the metals business significant progress was achieved in the development of the integrated bauxite alumina production line. Initial quantities of gallium have already been produced and our initiative on circular metals, the pilot plant has been already successfully commissioned. We are confirming recovery rates above 95% with application to all priority materials, and while relevant volume of captive feedstock is already secured, we are scouting and actively exploring additional opportunities in the global market. I would like to point here at this stage that the critical raw materials have been split from the aluminium value chain and they form now with the circular metals which is critical raw materials and circular metals a division of the metallurgy segment and we have agreed that the two, critical raw materials and circular metals, have many things in common in the production processes, in marketing and so on, and it's a better fit together. In M technologies, the defense hub in Evolos, which is now evolving into a comprehensive ecosystem of six factors, supported by international partnerships, including collaborations with companies like KNDS, IVECO, and others. In the utility business, Protergia further strengthened its position with a market share of 21%, steadily progressing towards the strategic target of 30%. In the renewable business, the successful completion of a landmark deal for solar and battery energy sources solar systems in Chile with total installed capacity of 588 megawatts and energy storage capacity of 1.6 gigawatt hours also highlights new opportunities, new capabilities arising from hybrid solar plus best projects. At the same time, the infrastructure and concession sector, MEDCA, is emerging as a stable growth engine, having doubled its EBITDA contribution in 2025, and now expected to approach its medium-term target ahead of schedule, potentially as early as 2026. Future outlook and comments on current environments. Beyond the 2025 performance, I believe many of you would be particularly interested in the implications of the conflict in Iran, which affects a highly sensitive region and has significant repercussions for energy prices, inflation, interest rates, and the aluminum market. This is not the first time that we have had to operate in a challenging environment. We have faced similar situations in the past and we have prepared the company to respond effectively once again. METLEN is well positioned to navigate such conditions as our business model is inherently resilient to market volatility. The coexistence of our energy and metals activities supported by a prudent hedging policy provides strong protection something clearly demonstrated during the currency crisis a few years ago, during the Lehman Brothers crisis, some early years, 2008, 2010. Christos will elaborate further on the specifics, but allow me to highlight a few key points. Aluminium prices are currently approximately $800 per ton above the average of the past 15 years, while many smelters are being forced to curtail production and the US dollar continues to strengthen. Premier prices have surged as the physical market becomes tighter. Supported by our hedging strategy, we are well positioned to capture very high margins going forward. We maintain uninterrupted access to natural gas as Greece has evolved into an alternative gateway for gas into the EU. Our recent agreement with Shell is indicative of the strategic role we can play in the wider region. Our utility business has demonstrated its ability to perform well, irrespective of price fluctuations in the wholesale electricity market. Reset with renewables and energy transition business is expected to benefit amid increasing concerns around security of supply in connection with the fossil fuels on a global scale. Finally, considering the evolution of our defense business, it is clear that it is well positioned in the current environment particularly given the structural undersupply in the market and the significant investment accepted in European defense. I will now pass the floor to Fotini, our CFO, to talk you briefly through the financial results in slightly more detail.
Thank you, Chairman. I will try and be very brief, as I think we will be having a much more interesting conversation through the Q&A. As the Chairman said, 2025 was a year of robust, top-line growth, where revenue increased by 25% to $7.1 billion, primarily on the back of our strong performance in the renewables platform. At the EBITDA level, We came in at 753 million, exactly in line with the guidance that we gave in early February. Down, obviously, about 30% versus 24. And as a result of the project execution-related losses relating to the ex-MPP segment that we have discussed a number of times in the past. Now, these project-related execution losses They all relate to the XMPP segment. They relate primarily to three projects in UK and Poland, and most of them relate to the PROTOS project, which we have covered again in previous communications. In response to that, we have taken a series of targeted actions to materially strengthen our execution oversight and the financial controls that we have in place, most important of which is what the chairman mentioned, which is the folding of the XMPP segment into the XM renewable segment in what is now renewables and energy transition platform, i.e., the XMPP segment will be managed by a team that has a stellar track record in EPC execution in time and on budget. On top of that, we have instituted enhanced accounting procedures to enable earlier identification of cost deviations and an increased cadence of project reforecasting and a much more thorough and challenging management review. What is important here to note is that we have performed a rigorous review of all the NTP projects that are still live, the vast majority of which will be delivered in 2026. We are currently at completion rate close to 90% on all of them, and we have already booked all the cost overruns to date and delay ODs and provisions for losses that may come up in 2026. Adjusting for the impact of these project losses, these execution-related project losses, and the partial monetization of the claim, our underlying EBITDA would have come in at above the 1 billion level. Now, moving forward to give you a little bit more color on the segmental picture, the energy transition platform revenue increased by about 26% to 2.3 billion, obviously driven by the strong performance of our renewables platform. On the EBITDA side, which came in at 86 million, the year-on-year decline is reflecting the project execution-related losses that I mentioned earlier that have to do with the ex-MPP segment. Key 2025 highlights for our renewables performance, asset rotation sales reached a record 1.5 gigawatts, underscoring the robust global demand for such projects and also Metland's unique positioning in this area. At a time, of course, where, as the chairman mentioned earlier, geopolitical energy volatility is reinforcing the case for renewable energy. Moving on to the integrated utility, a strong year, revenue rose by in a year where we proved for another year the importance and the strength of the integrated model that we run. Revenue rose by 18% year-on-year to $3.9 billion, where EBITDA stood at $357 million, roughly in line with 2024, reflecting our strong performance on the generation and natural gas, and also our pricing strategy in the electricity supply market, where we continue to gain market share. Moving to Metals turnover reached $907 million in 2025, more or less in line with 2024, representing around 13% of our total group turnover. EBITDA stood at $225 million, down more than 20% versus 2024, driven primarily by CO2 volatility and higher energy costs. we will be having, I think, a very interesting discussion about the outlook for our metals business in 2026, given also market developments. On infra and concessions, as the chairman said, the segment delivered another strong year ahead of our targets that we outlined in our CMD back in April. Turnover reached 567 million, more than double the level of 2024. and EBITDA also doubled year-on-year to 100 million. This performance obviously driven mainly by the significant expansion in high-quality backlog over the last three years and further supporting our view that this segment can develop into an increasingly meaningful and stable contributor. Turning to the balance sheet, balance sheet remains very strong. We came into the start of the year, closed the previous year with Exit liquidity of 3.7 billion, which is a combination of cash and committed credit lines with a lot and net debt at the end of 2025, which stood on an adjusted basis at 2.1 billion, excluding non-recourse debt, excluding non-recourse debt. Net leverage obviously up compared to our through the cycle target. at 3.1 times reflecting the lower than expected EBITDA of 2025. Of course, we anticipate as we move ahead with our plans in 2026, a very meaningful improvement by the end of 2026. In terms of debt maturities, we have a very comfortable debt maturity profile giving us breathing space until 2029, excluding every financing that we have in Q4 2026, which we of course have a lot of options on the table as to how we're going to address that. Going forward, 2025 was a year of challenges. It was a year of taking stock and moving ahead. 2026 looks said to be a year of financial discipline, resilience, and consolidation. Thank you.
Thank you, Fotini. As usual, we will answer and discuss first the questions that have already been submitted, and then I will give the floor to questions from any of you that would like to submit one. First, two questions is from Mr. Nestoras Katsios from Optima Bank. The first one says, although it is early in 2026 and the Persian Gulf conflict is still ongoing, could you please share your outlook for the year? I don't know when you, Mr. Katsios, when you wrote that question, but every day or every other day we have a war or we don't have a war. So when you say here, amid the Persian Gulf conflict, probably the question was written two or three days ago. Yesterday we did not have a conflict. Today maybe we have a little bit of a conflict. So, okay, the answer is going to be... A little bit so-and-so. No one doubts the resilience of this company, especially those who have followed the company for the last many years. Important. Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to be a year of consolidation, signaling, please be careful, a return to to our planned growth trajectory and putting us back on track to meet our medium-term targets. The setback of 2025 does not affect our medium-term target in the slightest. In light of the current macroeconomic environment and the pronounced impact of the Middle East on economic activity, a cautious and measured approach is, we think, sensible. Additional color on the 2026 outlook will be provided as usual at the AGM on the 21st of May. Question number two, how does the implications of the Middle East conflict and its potential aftermath affect METLEN? And how should investors consider the resilience of its business model in the context of this and other similar geopolitical events? Give me two or three minutes to answer this question one by one division segment. Number one, metallurgy. Elevated LME prices and premiums. Locked natural gas prices. supplies, both as far as price is concerned, as well as security of supply, because we have two issues now. We have price and we have the security of supply. We are locked on both, as well as many other cost components. And these, they support margins. Higher prices are being actively locked in for 27, 28, please. Energy inputs are largely hedged, preserving a cost advantage versus unhedged European peers. Vertical integration and sourcing diversification limit raw material risk. Two, renewables energy transition. Structurally supportive. We firmly believe that higher gas and oil prices are lifting the prospects of the renewable division, improving project economics and asset valuations. I would be glad to discuss this with you. EPC activities may face cost pressure, but overall impact remains positive. Priority is securing PPAs at attractive levels and reinforcing EPC risk transfer. Number three, integrated utility. Margin pressure in retail under high gas prices is structurally more than offset by stronger thermal generation and robust spark spreads amplified by Midland's highly efficient gas fleet. The integrated model provides effective Natural hedging. Number four, international supply and trading. Positive near-term margin effect from higher gas prices alongside increased focus on security of supply. Short-term exposure is manageable with approximately 6% of LNG secured through end of 26. Medium-term sourcing is being recalibrated including execution of the Shell MOU of 27 to 2031 and parallel negotiations with other major suppliers. And technologies. Structural tailwind. Geopolitical developments reinforce a defense spending upcycle in Europe and globally supporting growth as capacity and execution scale up. Stay tuned on the defense business of technologies. Infrastructure and concessions. Limited impact on MEDCA, mainly on cost side. Cost inflation, diesel, steel, asphalt is largely mitigated through fixed price procurement and reimbursement mechanisms. I continue with Vangelis Karanikas from National Bank of Greece, and I pass these questions to Fotini for answers, please.
Thank you, Chairman. Vangelis, thank you for the question. Let me read the question. Could you please let us know how many were roughly the losses arising from the MPP division? What you think went wrong? And how do you see current projects progressing? And what can you tell us about the future of this decision? Thank you again for the question, Vageli. As I said in my introduction, and I think this is the important thing to note, the company would have achieved an EBITDA level of profitability above $1 billion if one excludes the exceptional items incurred during the year, namely the project execution losses coming from MPP, as well as the partial monetization of the legal claim. So this gives you an order of magnitude. Now, what went wrong? I don't really want to spend time on what went wrong. I want to spend some time on what we're doing to put things right. As I said, following the losses that we had to incur, we have undertaken a rigorous review of all the MPP projects, which, and as I said, the vast majority of the MPP projects are expected to be completed in 2026 with a completion rate now at more than 90%. The root causes of all the problems have been identified and we have taken all the losses that relate to the cost overruns that we have incurred to date as well as have taken provisions for delay LBs that may arise in the future and potential more additional cost overruns. So we believe that at this moment we have been very, very prudent in accounting for all the NPP losses. Now, in terms of the key remedial actions that we have instituted, we, as I have said, significantly streamlined and reshaped NPP and we have folded it into the XM Renewables segment so that now it will be managed by the M Renewables team, which has a very, very good track record in EPC execution. We have introduced enhanced review procedures. We have introduced enhanced accounting procedures. We have increased the cadence with which we re-forecast the budget, and we have increased introduced and enhanced the challenger and reviewer levels when budgets are forecasted and timelines are revised. Going forward, the future of MPP, as the chairman said, being now a part of what we call renewables and energy transition platform, is going to be a primary focus on grid and data centers and storage projects. So all projects related to the energy transition space.
Thank you for the need. There is a second question which I would like to ask Christos to answer. Christos, please.
Thank you, Chairman. So good morning and thank you for attending. Vangelis asks the following. Could you please provide an update on the asset rotation? Sales for 26. namely Australia and Spain, after Chile. Additionally, you have announced several initiatives related to BES projects. How do these initiatives complement your broader renewable energy strategy, both for your operating assets and asset rotation strategy? So, thank you. Spot on. Yes, Chile has been landmark for us. It has been hybridized, as you know, so we put batteries next to the solar, which is the answer to what the solar issue globally is and the zero pricing across. So this is the way forward. And this is the reason why we are so believers in that way for the green energy transition enabling. which is going to go through batteries and storage. So yes, Australia and Spain will follow. We do expect both of them to be sold this year, probably through the hybrid way, increasing the margins, increasing the PPAs, increasing the profitability, and providing an answer to that structural problem that I've described before. You know also that we are so much present in that area of batteries and storage both for our portfolio as counterpart of choice for many other companies and of course you know that we have recently engaged into a JV with PPC in order to have a very sizable project on batteries abroad. So that answers the way that we see that and the way that we are pursuing this business and increase it furthermore through the years. Thank you.
Thank you, Christos. The last question, preset, is from Metasecurities. It's the first question. Could you provide a specific guidance for the year? Are you still considering a potential IPO of this business in the coming months? As already predicted, it has been a stellar performance by Emetka in 2025, and the prospects for 2026 indicates that steep growth is going to be maintained for this year as well. We continue to aim for an IPO of Medcar in the Athens Stock Exchange in the coming quarters, subject to market conditions. This would be a way to simplify our corporate structure further and allow investors to take direct exposure to this part of the business. The second question, which I would ask Christos to answer, please, Christos.
So, the question is, would you like to comment on the recent reports issued by S&P and Fitch? Do you still aim an IG rating and when could be expected? So, yes, very much so. We have reaffirmed that target. We think that by the end of that year, I mean, 2026, we are going to be at the level in order to become eligible for an IG level. That is clear. We have to reaffirm, and this is the reason why cash conversion and deleveraging has been the main priority of Medline this year. We are very happy with the outcome that came from S&P and Fitch and the reaffirmation and commitment and belief into what Medline is all about. There has been a slight deviation following what has happened in 2025 and the losses that we had through MPP that was in one-off. It was in isolation and didn't have any spillover. So very strong cash conversion, focus on the financial discipline, and IG is a clear target and commitment for Medline. Thank you.
Interesting to note that the rating agencies have kept the account in the profit warning contrary to the market reaction. Just for the record. So we're done with the preset questions. And I give the floor to anyone of you who would like to place further questions, please.
The first question is from Jason with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody. Thank you for the presentation. Just a couple of quick ones from me. I mean, it's been a bit of a tricky year with the charges on the projects. You've also taken the €130 million gain on the potential legal settlement. And I think people are a little bit confused about the businesses. So I guess my question to you is, because of what's happened in 2025, how are you changing the way you're running the EPC business? How are you changing the way you run the asset rotation program?
Jason, thank you. Thank you for asking. So as has been discussed, our commitment... to shareholders, lenders, business counterparts and employees is for governance, financial discipline and growth. Starting with the first one, as a result of what MPP lesson was in 2025, the whole chain of approving, implementing, monitoring, reporting and delivering all these projects is completely different through new people, processes and systems. This has further more reinforced all the governance, assurance and resilience practices that we apply in MEDLEN. There is a clear priority for all of us and a completely new procedure of approving all these projects in the Capital Allocation Committee. There is a new way in order to monitor, to report and eventually to deliver. Most of them are going to be delivered during this year. Now, the asset rotation, we do believe that this is going to be a bit different now onwards to the extent that all of our projects are going to be pre-sold. We do not wish to engage into any new spending in the construction phase. for any new project without having the certainty of selling it in the future. This is the main difference, and this has been, this is going to be the way forward in the asset rotation scheme that we do see both in 2026 and 2027 a very strong back load coming. This is going to be further more enhanced, not only through solar, but through solar and batteries. Last but not least, as I had the opportunity to say before, the grids and data centers are going to complement that backlog and increase the APC part of the business that we are conducting in that particular activity. So thank you.
Okay, thank you. Just a second question, if I could. And it's around hedging. Now, I understand you're a utility. You move a lot of energy. You buy a lot of energy. You sell a lot of energy. But then quietly on the side, you have this metals business that makes aluminum or aluminum. And I guess it seems that you do a similar thing in aluminum as you do in energy, which is quite different from other metal producers, right? Most metal producers make a point of being unhedged. And the reason there is that people want leverage to the movements in the underlying. So could you just remind us what your metal hedging policy is and could this evolve?
Thank you, Jason. I will answer this question myself. Our hedging policy... is dictated by our cost structure and the price in the market. Mostly LME, as you know, because premiums, premium cannot be hedged. The LME can be hedged. The decisive question here is whether when you hedge, you can secure a 20, 30, or 40% margin. If I can secure 30 or 40% margin for my shareholders, I will not risk the market. This has been the motto and I will go back a few years for those of you that have followed the company for many years to remind you that in 2007 and 8, we had had half a million tons of aluminum when the price went from $3,200 to $1,200. And most of the companies that you just mentioned that were unhedged almost went to the wall. Some of them did crash to the wall. Likewise, we are seeing now prices that are totally out of any substantial cost structure of good and smooth operations. If I can hedge at $3,000 plus and I have premiums of another $1,000 and I have a cost way below $2,000, I will hedge, Jason.
Thank you. Okay. Thanks for the color, sir.
The next question is from the line of Mazbulas Ioannis with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for the presentation. First question for me is on the growth initiatives you launched last year around metallurgical defense, circular and critical metals, among others. Could you give us a sense on the EBITDA contribution you expect from these initiatives in 2026 and 2027? Related to this, what's the latest on the Galleon project and possible off-day contract here? As we've seen, spot prices have risen threefold over the past 12 months. Thank you.
Thank you, Ioannis. When we set our goals for the medium term, that was... That was not picked in random. We set the medium-term goal because that was the indication of how the ongoing investments are going to mature. And this is already starting this year. We expect contribution from more than doubling of the figures of our defense business. We expect a contribution of our first big battery business, which is starting operations in June, and it's 330 megawatts. It's the biggest by a long way in Greece. The second biggest is below 100 megawatts. And it is, I can assure you, a very good business, and it's going to be a very good business in the longer term. Talking of batteries, may I say that for us, the battery business, the storage batteries that is, has three elements. One is our own fleet, which is going to exceed 500 megawatts by the end of this year. and it's going to increase further in 27. The second is our joint venture with PPC for a total of 1500 megawatts and with the geographic diaspora in South East Europe. And number three is the battery EPC business we do for third-parters. This combined with co-located solar and batteries, which was the big Chilean success, shows the way of how MRESET is going to operate going forward. Talking about gallium. Two things about gallium, as I said, gallium and Two more critical raw materials that are coming after gallium, which is scandium and germanium, which we call critical raw materials, are now one subdivision of metallurgy together with the cyclical metals. So gallium is advancing very fast. And I would like to ask you to stay tuned for the first good surprise of the year on the part of METLEN. Stay tuned, please. The critical raw materials and circular metals is going as we expected. The priority of circular metals is copper oxide, nickel oxides, cobalt, and zinc oxides. You will probably see our first sales of these products by the end of this year as well. Thank you, Ioannis.
Thanks very much for the color. Second question, maybe one for Tini, going back to the debt repayment profile, where we look at slide 21, you've got over a billion euros of debt maturities this year on top of significant CapEx commitments as part of your growth agenda. Could you provide a bit more color on how you're planning to manage the cash needs for the business this year and also talk about some of the debt management plans. Thank you.
Thank you, Yanni, for the question. Well, as you know, I'm in the happy position to take on a role that was previously held by Christos Gavalas, which basically means I've inherited a house in very good order. So, as I said, we started the year with... excess liquidity of 3.7 billion. And we have a very comfortable debt maturity. We have a lot of breathing space up to 2029 with the exclusion of the 500 million refi that we have in Q4 in 2026. Now, we have 3.7 billion worth of excess liquidity. We expect significant organic cash flow generation, especially on the back of the asset rotation project deliveries that will be coming in in 2026, and obviously we will be, and hence we have a lot of tools to repay the $500 million in Q4 should we wish to. Of course, we're always, you know we're a sequential issuer in the markets, so depending on how the markets are, we are of course evaluating our options to identify the right time and the right type of instrument to refi if we choose to refi. As an overall point, Christos has mentioned leverage and financial discipline is a priority for us in 2026. Our medium-term target continues to be reaching IG, and we will make sure that through the disciplined execution and the optimization of our cash flows in 2026, we will reach that goal sooner rather than later. So thank you.
Thanks very much. And maybe one last question just on the gas sourcing. You have announced the agreement with Shell. How does that compare to the Gazprom contract you have in terms of pricing on other aspects that we need to consider? And then related to that, how are you looking to adapt if the EU does sanction Gazprom from 1st of January 2028? I'd be interested to hear your strategy around additional sourcing contracts over the next year or two. Thank you.
Thank you. Gasprom quantities from the legacy contract amount to no more than 30 or 35% of our total gas procurement. We buy regularly from all major producers and traders, and we have one or two cargoes a month that we receive in the form of LNG. The gas from supplies is coming through pipeline, through the TurkStream, and this is going to end by decision from the European Union at the end of 2027. The Shell contract was the first medium five-year term contract to be followed by more contracts And we will leave another 20% on the side for spot purchasing. We are very confident. We have complete control of this business. We have no problems whatsoever. As I said also to Jason a few minutes ago, the gas we are going to need for aluminum production, especially Our aluminum production has already been priced for the years 26, 27, 28. Thank you.
Thanks very much. That's very clear.
The next question is from the line of Krishna Garval with Citibank. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Most of them have been answered, if I can ask on one. on circular metals. You said that the pilot plant has already commissioned the operation. So can you give us some timelines as in when you would be able to approve the phase one commissioning of the commercial operation for the circular metal? And the follow-up to that is, I mean, you've guided for 260 million of EBITDA for a medium term in April 25, and the prices since then have gone up. Does higher prices mean that your EBITDA guidance has potential upside versus the 260 currently?
As I said, the pile plant is going on schedule. First productions before the end of the year. Small contribution, if any, for this year. but more substantial contribution next year. And the minute we are assured of the fine and smooth operation of the pilot plant, there will be the FID for the next much bigger plant. That's news, but that's how it is at the moment. Regarding the... The prices, of course, the higher price of the metals are helping, but I think it's a bit premature to change the numbers. First, we want to see the pilot plant runs perfectly. Then we have the FID for the second one, which is going to be five to ten times bigger than the pilot plant. And then we may revise our projects. Thank you.
Thanks, John.
The next question is from the line of Fisher Andrew with Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thank you very much for taking my questions. The first one, just on the integrated utility, please, could you maybe just give us a bit more color on how captured spark spreads evolved for the gas generation assets through 2025 and then Obviously, given the volatility we've seen in CO2 prices and also gas prices, maybe give us a bit of any color you can on how those spreads, profitability of the gas plants developed year to date, please.
Thank you very much for the question. Let's be very clear. What are the elements consisting? comprising the utility. First, we have, of course, generation. We have our retail business, and then we have the gas international supply and trading. These three additions, they make what we call energy utility. there is some kind of an inherent hedge between generation and retail. When the market prices are low, this is very good for the retail business. When market prices are high, good for generation, bad for retail. So we should judge these two as one. And the combined... The combined margin spreads, I would put, at around 40 euros per megawatt hour. Now, the gas business, which is the third element of the utility, is spread in a much wider geographical location. on its own last year. It handled the equivalent of about 50 plus million megawatt hours. So it's quite a substantial business. All three together consist the energy utility. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you very much for the extra color. Could I just also ask one additional question, please? You mentioned returns on the renewables projects. Are there any sort of indications you can give us maybe on how IRRs on projects have been developing over time, certainly over the last year or so? or maybe some indication on sort of how the spread over WAC has developed on the sort of projects that you're looking to build in the next couple of years, please.
My take from the effects of the Gulf War on the renewable business, and I have to say that in the last month or so, we have seen a surge in our renewable orders in all forms, in the forms of EPC, in the forms of BOT, in all kinds of forms. People have started to realize that the best security of supply is the renewable production in each country. Every country now is looking at the production of its own as a security of supply on top of the decarbonization and all the usual arguments that we have been hearing for so many years and Mr. Trump wants to abolish. Renewables more and more you will hear that are gaining ground not only because they are cheaper, not because they are green, but because they provide security supply. And the most vivid example of this is Spain. Spain has the highest per capita megawatt solar capacity by a long way. And number two is Greece. So Spain, through a combination of massive solar, wind, and nuclear for the night hours mostly, has secured the lowest, by far the lowest prices in the European Union. This is where we are going now. Not many countries can have or do have nuclear, but we are going to a model whereby there will be as much renewables, especially solar, which are very cheap, I repeat, very cheap. One megawatt hour, the LCOE, which is the equivalent of of the price per megawatt hour in the solar. The cost is about 30 euros. The equivalent, considering also the CO2 burden, is about 140 euros. So not only now renewables are so much cheaper, they are perceived as offering security of supplies for all the countries. That's why I was reading this morning an article at the Reuters press agency and said there's a big shift back to the EV vehicles, electric vehicles. Again, because people cannot afford to pay $4 per gallon. And in Europe, $2 and $2.3 euros per litre. So I am extremely confident for the next generation of our renewable business, and we will be here next year to see if I was right or not. Christos, if you would like to make a comment on the financial side of the question.
Christos Papadimitriou Yes, thank you, Chairman Andrew. Thank you for asking. So the return so far. which are pretty stable, is on the equity always to double digits. You know that. And this is the way forward in the Capital Allocation Committee for all this type of projects. And it reminds you that it's always under a non-recourse project finance. That means that the equity is not more than 30%. It's been 20% and 30% under a secured long-term PPA for most of the electrons produced, so the return is above 10%. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from the line of Nikokirakis Ioannis with Alpha Finance. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for your presentation. I guess most of my questions have been answered. Just a quick one from my side though. Well, we have seen that the aluminium Bahrain is a completed or at least been the preferred bidder for aluminium Dunkirk. I mean, do you consider this case effectively closed by your side? Thanks for the answer.
Okay, that was a good journey. The effort to acquire Aluminium Dunkirk was a good journey and a nice ambition. What was the ambition? The ambition was the following. Aluminium Dunkirk was the flagship plant of the Peschine Aluminium Company. Peschine is an does not exist anymore. It was bought by Alcan in 2003. Subsequently, Alcan was bought, as you know, by Rio Tinto in 2007, and so on. Our plant was also a passionate plant, and it represented probably the first big heavy-duty industry, so to say, in Greece after the war. For us, most of our engineers in our plant are friends with the engineers of Dunkirk. Our engineers, they speak French, they don't speak English. They have been in Dunkirk over and again. For us, it was a perfect fit. But at the price. Being fully covered and supported by some of the biggest global banks, we submitted an offer that we believe appropriately valued aluminium Dunkirk while preserving upside for us and without exposing us to unnecessary risks. We remain true to our belief that an M&A transaction is only meaningful if it is value accredited. Taking into account the extremely high winning bid, we are very comfortable with the outcome of the process. Now, because as we say in Greek, people have plans and make plants, but God, maybe he thinks otherwise. So our friends in Alba made plants, but they were offered the war instead. I don't know how this is going to play out. I am never happy for the misfortune of others. And I wish everything is going to go well with ALBA. And they complete the acquisition. They made a very, very generous offer. For us, it was totally out of the question. It was not close. But that was their decision. I did not judge other people's decisions. I wish everything goes well with the war. And they come out of this sound. financially and otherwise, and healthy above all. And they proceed with what I consider as a real jewel. Aluminium Dunkirk was a real aluminum jewel. That's it for Dunkirk. Not much else to say. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Mitering Neos for any closing comments. Thank you.
well as I don't know who said I think Jason 2025 was a tricky year it was a unique experience for us but I firmly believe that this experience will prove to be a blessing in disguise as it has prompted meaningful changes, further streamlining of the group that will ultimately leave Medellin stronger and better positioned. Against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, we once again find ourselves navigating a complex environment. That said, we are all prepared with a resilient business model and strong fundamentals. I firmly believe that 2025 parentheses has closed and that 2026 will mark a return to our established growth trajectory within the ambition of delivering the performance that we have promised to our shareholders back in the CMD of April 25. We will provide further details on our outlook and guidance for 2026 according to our standard practice that will be discussed at the AGM of May 22nd. And before I close, if you allow me, I would like to make a personal note. I feel like I owe it to our shareholders that have been loyal to the company for decades and who have voted 99%. Yes, you have heard well. 99% for our relisting to the UK. I owe them an explanation. That's personal. I never failed them for 30 years. And I consider it my absolute duty to compensate our lawyer shareholders who created, who their support has created this company to return to the path that they always appreciated and recognized in this company. And that is not a promise for the future. That is starting in 2020. That's a personal commitment for those of you that still rely on my personal word. I thank you all for attending the conference call, and I wish the Christian Orthodox crowd of today's conference call Happy Easter. And I wish a nice spring for the rest of you. Thank you very much again.
