2/19/2026

speaker
Miles
Moderator

A very warm welcome to everyone, both here in the room and for those of us joining us remotely. I want to begin by acknowledging the traditional owners and First Nations peoples who host our operation around the world and pay my respects to their elders past and present. We are pleased to be here today with our CEO Simon and our CFO Peter Cunningham to present to you our 2025 full year results and this will be followed by a Q&A session. There are no planned fire evacuations today so if you hear the alarm please follow instructions from the fire wardens here at the London Stock Exchange. With that I'd like to ask Simon to the stage.

speaker
Simon
CEO

Good morning all to those here in London and of course also those joining us online. So I'll start with safety and this evening I'll fly to Guinea to spend some time with the team at Simundu. As you'll no doubt be aware, last Saturday one of our colleagues died at the mine site. We've achieved a great deal at Simundu. But this tragedy underlines that we have more work to do to ensure that everyone goes home safely at the end of every shift. Safety is the foundation of our business and nothing is more important than the people that work around us. And we must be able to safely operate in different jurisdictions around the world, like Guinea. The leadership team and I are determined to learn from this tragedy and we're taking some immediate actions We've stopped all site works and construction activities. We've started an independent investigation with both internal and external experts. And in addition, we will appoint an independent safety advisory panel. This will consist of leading safety practitioners from both industry and academia, together with experienced Rio Tinto alumni. it will provide additional guides and support to our team as we complete construction and then move Simundu into operations. As we put in place these actions, we will reflect further on the lessons from our colleagues' death. With these thoughts in mind, I'll turn now to our financial results. We're making clear progress towards our mission of being the world's most valued metals and mining business. The results today are underpinned by a stronger, sharper and simpler way of working, which will lift productivity as well as lower costs, enabling us to cut complexity and focus on the right opportunities. Our operational performance was strong in 2025 and we delivered an industry-leading 8% equivalent increase in copper-equivalent production, setting annual records for both copper and bauxite. Our Pilbara mines rebounded strongly from the cyclones at the start of the year and set production records from April. And while volumes increased, our copper-equivalent unit costs were reduced by 5%. These results also show the value of diversification. Underlying EBITDA increased by 9%, to 25.4 billion. The increases from both copper and aluminium were a particular highlight. Self-help was also a feature, as we unlocked a 650 million run rate in annualised productivity benefits, and I'll talk more about this shortly. Finally, the dividend. We achieved stable underlying earnings of 10.9 billion, and we will return 60% of this to shareholders, equating to 6.5 billion. Now stepping back, we've got the right assets in the right commodities and we're well positioned to deliver growth in the years ahead. Over the next decade, we expect strong growth from aluminium, lithium and copper with still demand remaining resilient. At the same time, across the board, supply is constrained with sector capex 50% lower than its 2013 peak. Rio has got the people, the capability and the projects to meet this demand. And we're achieving this through operational excellence. This is driving our strong production performance, putting us on track to deliver our ambition of 3% CAGR for copper equivalent production through to the end of this decade. As part of our stronger, sharper, simpler way of working, we're also driving operational outcomes and structurally reducing costs. We will achieve the 650 million annual run rate in productivity by the end of this quarter. And with this strong start in 2026, we will deliver cash improvements materially above this Q1 run rate in 2026. Of course, to drive the growth that creates value for our shareholders, we need to deliver on our projects safely, reliably and at scale. And in 2025, with Oluokoi Goy, Simundu and our in-flight lithium projects, we executed some of the most technically challenging mining projects on the planet. That underground development at OT is now complete, fully invested and the growth is ramping up. And we're on track to deliver on average around 500,000 tonnes of copper per year between 2028 and 2036. In December, we also achieved our first shipment of high-quality iron ore from Simundu, and we will deliver 60 million tonnes per annum of iron ore as we fully ramp up. And in lithium, we're progressing our in-flight projects, targeting capacity 200,000 tonnes per annum by 2028. We're delivering tangible outcomes today. And we have the project pipelines to extend growth well into the 2030s. with copper at its core. That includes projects like La Graja in Peru, Resolution in Arizona, Nueva Correa in Chile, which I'll visit shortly. And I've asked our exploration team to narrow their scope and put copper front and centre. And so we're now directing 85 per cent of our exploration budget towards copper. But we are clear-eyed about the task. No matter how amazing the geology, this effort must translate into value accretive projects. And finally, capital discipline, the bedrock of strong and consistent shareholder returns. Rigorous capital allocation guides every investment decision we make. All projects must compete for capital and every dollar we invest must create shareholder value. The same standards apply to how we manage our portfolio. As we said at Capital Markets, we will deliver $5 to $10 billion in cash proceeds from our asset base. And we're now actively testing the market for RTIT and the Borates businesses. To sum up, we're achieving both returns and growth, returning cash to shareholders and at the same time delivering the largest number of greenfield projects of any of the diversified miners whilst retaining the industry's best growth options. That same discipline underlines how we approach any major portfolio decision. So let me touch briefly on the discussions we had with Glencore. We went under the hood with a singular focus on whether we could create value for shareholders. We considered what we could bring to the table and the extent to which we could generate incremental value across a combined portfolio. We had constructive discussions between the two teams Ultimately, we concluded that we could not reach an agreement that would deliver value for Rio Tinto shareholders. Now, as you might recall at Capital Markets Day, I said we would look at M&A opportunities through a discipline lens, and that's exactly what we've done. And this same focus on value will continue to guide us. With that, I'll hand over to Peter, who'll take you through the financials in more detail.

speaker
Peter Cunningham
CFO

Thanks, Simon. At our Capital Markets Day, we set out a clear pathway to increase volumes, reduce costs, and release cash from our asset base, all of which will strengthen our balance sheet and drive future returns. In 2025, the improvement in our financials was largely driven by volume growth. The function of our ongoing drive towards operational excellence and higher copper volumes from OT. Today, we are reporting nearly $3 billion of volume improvement year on year. Cost discipline was also good and we started to deliver substantial reductions late in 2025. These will flow into our results in 2026 and will be enhanced as we implement systemic improvements across our business. More on that later. Our net debt increased to $14.4 billion as we absorbed the Arcadium acquisition, and falling slightly in the second half of the year due to our strong operating cash flow. The balance sheet remains in good shape, and gearing is modest at 18%, with future capital release initiatives set to further strengthen our position. Once again, we're paying out 60% of our underlying earnings as dividends. Let's now take a closer look at our markets. Now there are two key messages here. Firstly, the resilience of iron ore. And secondly, the positive correlation of our other products with the energy transition. Iron ore remains supported by Chinese steel export growth and a structurally balanced market. As Vivek outlined at our Capital Markets Day, the cost curve remains steep, and is supported at the top end by over 100 price-sensitive producers from more than 20 countries. Copper and aluminium prices both rose 9%, but average prices don't tell the whole story. Copper ended the year 44% higher than 12 months earlier, and aluminium 17% higher. The demand growth picture is not uniformly strong. Traditional areas such as construction remain weak. But the backbone of growth is the energy transition, particularly around power systems and electrification. The energy transition, combined with supply constraints and reinforced by investment inflows, is driving the market's strength. Lithium also ended the year with strong momentum as markets came back into balance earlier than expected. Battery storage demand is emerging as a fast-growing pillar of the energy transition. With growth, now I'm outpacing EVs as renewable scale and grid firming becomes critical. It continues to surprise many market commentators to the upside. Turning now to our EBITDA composition over the last two years. Iron ore EBITDA was down 11%, but the copper and aluminium more than offset this. Our portfolio gives us the ability to allocate capital to shareholder returns and to grow with confidence, recognising our best returns come from improving our existing assets and reducing our cost base. At the CMD, we announced $650 million of near-term productivity benefits, driven by stronger operational discipline, a streamlined organisation and a sharper focus on the portfolio. For the post few months, we've reshaped our organisation, re-scoped and stopped work. By the end of Q1, we will be into our next phase of the programme, which is larger in scale, multi-year, and steps us towards full potential. In the Pilbara, we're looking at different ways to operate our system, focusing on contingency stockpiles and optimisation of our asset-shut sequencing. This will enable increased asset throughput and smarter use of spend across the mines. For copper, we're driving productivity of underground equipment and operations in both development and production areas, while improving metal recoveries in the concentrators. In aluminium, we're focused on sharpening day-to-day operational discipline, strengthening smelter stability, improving maintenance quality and raising contractor performance to ensure operational consistency year after year. And centrally, we're reorganising our operating model to clarify accountabilities and streamline workflows. We've already redefined our closure operating model, optimising R&D spend, and are driving further improvements in sustaining capital projects. Now, we expect the value uplift to be materially more than the first phase, with programmes advancing in 2026 as we scale up to deliver further in 2027 and 2028. Let's now unpack EBITDA through our standard waterfall. For the first time in many years, we experienced minimal net impact from commodity prices, with lower iron ore fully compensated by higher prices for aluminium and in particular copper. As I said earlier, the big driver of earnings growth was volumes, with higher sales delivering a $2.9 billion uplift. This is mostly from copper and gold, with a ramp-up of OT and improved output from Escondida. Higher iron ore sales from the Pilbara were also an important contributor. Volumes were also a major driver of the $800 million improvement in unit costs due to fixed cost efficiencies. Now, in copper equivalent unit cost terms, this represented a 5% reduction. There were a few offsets. Kennecott is on track to deliver production increase by 40% to 50% over the next few years, as we outlined at CMD. Its operating performance is much improved, but the financials were impacted by the base effect of refining high intermediate product inventories in 2024. Secondly, our Pilbara business recovered impressively from the four cyclones with record production rates since April. However, there was a $700 million EBITDA impact. Looking forward to 2026, volume growth will be more muted at around 3% across our managed operations, which will be offset by closures at Arviva, Dharvik, and the mid-year curtailment at Yarwin, and an expected grade decline at Escondida. Now, nothing has changed from the parameters that we set out at the CMD. We are pushing very hard on productivity improvements and cost reductions, building on the initial $650 million already identified and secured. I would therefore expect the aggregate volume and cost improvements, net of headwinds, to be a material uplift on that number in 2026. On to the product groups. Iron Ore delivered $15.2 billion of EBITDA. The product strategy has been successfully introduced to the market, aligning sales to our system, and we've seen strong cost control reflected in unit costs, in line with guidance at $23.50 per tonne. For 2026, we're aligning to $23.50 to $25 per tonne, reflecting in part the impact of a stronger Australian dollar. Copper was the standout, with EBITDA more than doubling to $7.4 billion, driven by higher prices and rising volumes. Shipments were up 60% at OT, where the underground development project is now complete. Unit copper Costs were down 53% and 2026 guidance is comparable to 2025. Aluminium sustained its impressive record of stability, in particular for smelting and bauxite, where we set a new production record. And we took advantage of stronger markets, leading to a step change in financial performance, with EBITDA up 20%. Our commercial team continues to proactively optimise our vertically integrated position in the changing tariff environment. It was the first year for our new lithium business, which has clearly not yet occurred. and significant contributor, but as set out at the end, we'll focus on delivering the projects, which will bring us to a meaningful capacity of around 200,000 tons by 2028. APEC in 2025 was at the high end of our guidance range, around $11 billion, as we hit peak spend on growth, with an outlay of $1.6 billion at Simundu and just over $1 billion on lithium growth projects. Now, this is a crucial period of capex spend, which will underpin future earnings. Our growth commitments will ease over the next few years, with Simundu nearly two-thirds complete. We do continue to strengthen the Pilbara system through replacement mine investments, and also Weepa, where later this year we will consider a final decision on the expansion of the Ameren mine. Given this context, we see no change to our guidance of up to $11 billion for the next two years before stepping down to $10 billion thereafter. Turning to the balance sheet, net debt has risen to $14.4 billion following completion of the Arcadium transaction. A level comfortably in a range consistent with our commitment to a single A credit rating. All our credit metrics are in a solid place. This remains a strong balance sheet. We're committed to our capital framework and shareholder returns policy of paying 40 to 60% of underlying earnings. We know that distributions to shareholders are incredibly important. Once again, we're paying out at 60% and now a 10-year track record of paying at the top of the range. So to summarise, we have the right assets and the right commodities. 2025 was a solid year of delivery with sustainable volume uplift. And over the next few years, our focus turns to a powerful combination of self-help and growth as we build on the productivity improvements and we see the first results from the capital release. The balance sheet remains strong and we're generating very stable operating cash flow from our diversified portfolio. And with that, I'll turn back to Simon.

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