Tate & Lyle plc

Good morning and welcome to the conference call for Tate & Lyle's Q3 trading statement. Your speakers today are Nick Hampton, Chief Executive, and Sarah Carlyle, Chief Financial Officer. I will now hand you over to Nick Hampton for some opening remarks.

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tate & Lyle's third quarter conference call. I will make some introductory comments, and then Sarah and I will be happy to take your questions. The group delivered another quarter of solid operating performance, with volume and EBITDA growth. We also saw strong productivity and cash delivery. In November, we completed the acquisition of CP Calco, a leading global pexin and speciality gum business. This acquisition represents a significant acceleration in the delivery of agro-focused strategies. It establishes Tate & Lyle as a leader in mouthfeel, a critical driver of customer solutions, and we are encouraged by the positive response of customers to the benefits of our expanded portfolio and solutions capabilities. Looking in more detail at our performance in the quarter, volume in food and beverage solutions was 4% higher, with growth in each region. Revenue was 4% lower, primarily reflecting the pass-through of input cost deflation. Sucralose performed strongly, benefiting from the continued impact of the pull forward of customer orders, which we expect will partly unwind in the fourth quarter. CP Calco performed well and in line with our expectations, delivering strong volume growth in the 2024 calendar year and delivering the anticipated progress on the phased margin recovery we outlined at the time of the acquisition. The integration of the two businesses is progressing well. and we will operate as one business from the 1st of April. Our progress since we closed the deal reinforced our confidence in delivering the targeted run rate cost synergies of $50 million by the end of the 2027 financial year, as well as the identified revenue synergies over the medium term. In line with the normal cycle of our industry, during the quarter, we renewed contracts to 2025 calendar year for those customers who contract annually. While market demand remains broadly stable, we have not yet seen the acceleration in demand we expected in the second half of the 2025 financial year. Against this background, continued geopolitical uncertainties and some pricing pressure, we renewed contracts for both Tate and Lyle and CP Calco, which are expected to deliver volume and revenue growth in the 2025 calendar year. Turning now to the outlook for the year ending 31st of March 2025. Excluding CP Calco and in constant currency, we now expect revenue to be mid-single-digit percent lower and for EBITDA growth to be towards the lower end of our guidance range of 4% to 7%. Overall, the business continued to perform well. The muted consumer demand environment and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties reinforce the importance of the steps we have taken to reposition patent law over the last six years. Looking ahead, the combination with CC Calco significantly strengthens our customer offering, expands our reformulation capabilities, and further increases our ability to benefit from the structural long-term trends towards healthier, tastier, and more sustainable food and drink. With that, I will open up the call for questions.

Thank you, Mr. Hampton. In order to ask a question or make a contribution to this call, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind and want to withdraw your question, please press star 2. Please ensure your lines are unmuted locally as you'll be prompted when to ask your question. The first question comes from a line of Patrick Higgins from Goodbody. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. A couple of questions on my end, if that's okay. Firstly, I just want to clarify in terms of, and I appreciate the revenue update, but just wanted to kind of see if you could comment on the underlying kind of EBITDA performance in the quarter. I assume you're still in growth, right? And possibly, what does that mean then for Q4? Is it possibly flat as super lows unwind? That's the first question. And then the second question, It's just around the comments around the contract renewals. Perhaps you could give us just a bit more colour on the moving apart to the assumptions you've outlined in the statement. You know, the pricing pressures you flagged, how much of that is pass-through of deflation versus, you know, the price investment that you kind of had highlighted this time last year? Thanks.

Thanks, Patrick, and good morning. Maybe I could take the first question. Second question first, rather, and then Sarah can talk about the EBITDA in the quarter. So when we look at contracting for next year, marketing conditions haven't really changed over the last 12 months. The one thing that has changed clearly is the impact of deflation. So, you know, overall, going to next year, we're seeing raw material input costs pretty flat. As we went into contracting, we looked to maintain our discipline on managing the balance on top lines of delivery across volume price mix. And therefore, we're expecting to see continued volume momentum and revenue growth with limited impact from deflation, inflation. And we're critically looking to position the business for the future through the next contracting round. If you think about what that means, there's very little impact from deflation, inflation going forward. with, you know, some selective pricing as we did last year coming into the contracting round. So sort of similar outcome on the sort of price mix side to this year, really. Do you want to take, Eva, to our question?

Yeah. Thanks, Nick. And good morning, Patrick. Good morning, everyone. So I think, Patrick, it's worth highlighting. So in Q3, we saw the volume up 4% and revenue down 4%. Yes, we've got continued pass-through. So some deflation in there. But I think it's worth highlighting that if you compare it to H1, there is a slightly improved mix. If you call in H1, it was volume up 4% and revenue down 8%. And just to confirm, yes, year-to-date EBITDA growth is positive. We also highlighted superlose, so it's great to see another reverse quarter for superlose. And while we do expect someone winding Q4, again, year-on-year, we do see some growth And that's where really we're working on the productivity side to meet that robust demand from customers.

I'm sorry, was that positive year-to-date and in the quarter or just specifically on Q3? Yeah.

Okay. Yeah, that's it.

Thank you.

Before proceeding to the next question, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from a line of Matthew Webb from Investec. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone. Can I start off just by clarifying the answer to Nick's, the answer Nick gave there just on pricing, looking forward to FY26. Did I understand it correctly that you said that you expected a limited impact from from price in that year, price overall in that year. And the reason I just wanted to clarify that was because I thought that you then said that you expected a similar impact from price mix in 26 versus 25, when of course it was negative. So that was my first question, if we just clear that up. And then my second question is just about... the fact that obviously it was only quite recently in mid-November, so three months ago, that you said you expected an acceleration in demand. That obviously hasn't come through yet. I mean, do you think that's just a delay or has something changed that has made you more wary of calling that improvement? And is it just that it's not going to happen in FY25 because it's almost over and you don't want to get into guiding on next year or have you become a bit more cautious? And then my final question was just whether you could provide any updated guidance on the tax rate and the interest charge for this year, for FY25. Thank you. Okay, Matt.

Thanks, Matthew. Thanks for those questions. And thanks for the clarification question as well. So I'll leave the tax question to Sarah. On the point on the contracting round, I was trying to make two separate points. The first point is they're very different to last year. We're not seeing deflation throw through as a result of raw materials. So the cost base is relatively stable going into next year. And I was trying to isolate the point about the overall contracting around on price mix. We're expecting to see not a dissimilar view to this year on price mix if you exclude the impact of deflation. So I hope that's a helpful clarification. In terms of your question on the market, what we're seeing today is food inflation is still having a significant impact on consumers. So although we've seen inflation abate, food today is still 20% to 30% higher than it was two or three years ago. And as a result, we're seeing relatively muted markets. consumer demand, and that's flowing through into, I think, some caution from our customers as well. So what we're really reflecting is the current state of the market and, you know, our customer caution on seeing that growth return. And we'll give, as we always do, clear guidance for next year when we get to our May results cycle. So with that, maybe I'll hand over to Sarah to talk about the tax question.

Thanks, Nick, and good morning, Matthew. So, indeed, to clarify, so on tax, we're seeing an ETR between 22% and 23%. And then on the interest side, you might want to recall that we managed to refinance the U.S. private placement early in the month. It's great to see that was oversubscribed. Obviously, that brings us some stability on the financing. So, I think the, when you take both interest and tax into account, although the EBITDA on SDS has softened a little, superloads ahead so we're comfortable with consensus for EDS.

That was very helpful. Thank you very much indeed.

The next question comes from a line of Alex Sloan from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking the questions. A few follow-ups. Just in terms of the contracting round, thanks for clarifying. So you're saying kind of similar outcome to last year. So am I right in assuming that's kind of like a minus 4% headwind then to FBS that we should assume continues over into the fiscal year? And, I mean, just in terms of putting some context around that, I mean, I'm slightly surprised if that is the extent of it, that that's the case given, you know, one of your peers reported last week and then talked about sort of mid-single-digit volume outlook, you know, in the equivalent business to FBS and mid-single-digit to high-single-digit. EBIT growth. So, I mean, the question is basically, do you think you're losing share and therefore having to give back more, or is this kind of industry-wide price givebacks? That was the main question. Thanks. Let me take that then, Alex.

So, your assumptions are reasonable. Obviously, it will depend on how we see volume and price mix evolve as we go into next year and We'll have a full quarter when we get to May to report on them, which will be helpful. We're not seeing anything different in the industry. So, you know, we're anticipating seeing volume growth next year as well, as I said. And, you know, we'll report on our EBITDA guidance in May. So we don't think it's a share loss situation at all. I think we're balancing our volume and share as the industry evolves. It's sort of a simple answer to your question.

Okay, thanks. And if I could put in one follow up, I mean, I appreciate this is not a call for fiscal 26. But you know, just in the, maybe in the context of the share price, it was helpful to comment, you know, you're comfortable with consensus EPS for 25. I mean, how do you feel about the consensus for 26? And I guess maybe not specifically the EPS, but is there any reason why you shouldn't be able to deliver a similar level of EBITDA growth for the kind of core tape business next year that you're guiding to, i.e. the 4-7, low end of the 4-7 for this year?

I mean, as I said earlier, we'll give you specific guidance for next year when we get to May, but we're clearly going to be looking to make progress at balance progress across volume, volume revenue, and EBITDA will be the specifics when we get to the May results as always. Okay.

Thank you. The next question comes from a line of Joanne Lin from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Hello. Thank you. Sorry to labor the point, but maybe just on volume expectations for FY26. So you had said volumes remain stable instead of accelerating in 25. Fine. If we look forward to 26, can you just remind us of how Tate expects to deliver a buff end market growth? So, for example, peers have talked about seeing an improvement in the innovation pipeline, in part related to GLP-1, you know, increased health and wellness trends, consumers looking for healthier solutions, including more fiber. How does your innovation pipeline look and how is your new portfolio positioned to benefit from that trend? So that's my first question. The second question is on your contracting round. Post your contracting round, what are your expectations for unit margins in fiscal 26?

So taking your first question, Joan, everything we've done to reposition the business in the last six years, including the recent acquisition of Tiki Telco has been to position the business for areas of where the market is growing. And those are very, very focused on helping create healthier, more sustainable, clean label solutions for customers. And the combination of the two businesses gives us strong positions across sweetening, mouthfeel, and fortification to do that. So clearly, as we look at the innovation pipeline, we're looking to build a pipeline with customers that represent those future pockets of growth. And that's been part of the process of going through putting the two businesses together and the conversations we're now having with customers as a result of the combination. So many of the things you talked about, the increased focus on more nutritious products food and beverage given that the obesity challenges in the world, some of the challenges with feeding a growing population, all give us confidence in finding pockets of growth because of the way we've repositioned the business. And then in terms of margin progression, we'll give you much clearer view on that in May when we get to our guidance for the following year.

Thank you. And maybe just to follow up then, If you could give an update on the CPK integration, so how has conversations with customers been like in terms of cross-selling opportunities?

So on integration, everything is going well and on track, and we'll be a fully combined business by the 1st of April, operating as one business. I visited a number of the CPK sites, in fact, most of them over the last few months. And I'm very, very excited by the caliber of the people, the assets, and the portfolio. So integration is going very well. We're very confident in the delivery of the synergies that we announced as part of the transaction. And everything remains on track. Whilst it's early days with customers, they're very positive about the combination and we're starting to see real interest in requests for innovation and meetings to talk about how the combined portfolio can help our customers grow going forward. So we're all good at this stage.

Okay. Thank you very much.

A final reminder, if you'd like to join the queue for questions, to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from the line of Chris Pitcher from Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.

Good morning. A couple of questions from me. Could you give us a bit more detail on CPK and its current performance to try and help model out the EBITDA recovery there? I mean, are they volumes positive but revenues negative as per the FBS business or has CPK got a bit better pricing coming through. And then secondly, can you give a bit more colour on your end markets and how they're doing? I know you specifically said it's not come back as much as you thought, but is there a mix of end market just to be mindful of in terms of your business? And then last point, I don't know if you can give an update, but in terms of the Q3, in terms of new business wins, are solutions dropping off in this environment and going back more towards the standard ingredients? Can you give us a feel for that? Thanks.

Sure. So let's start with CP Calca performance. We saw performance precisely in line with our expectations through calendar year 24 and in the third quarter. And we saw positive volume growth and revenue growth in the quarter. So all as anticipated. That growth is being led by strong demand from Pectin, which is very encouraging because they've got a leadership position there. And And as expected, we're seeing the margin rebuild over time. If you remember when we did the announcement of the acquisition, we said we'd see margin recovery over a three or four-year period, and we're seeing that recovery as anticipated. So all positive and on track at this point as we go into next year. In terms of sort of more regional cover on markets, we saw growth across all regions. in quarter three, higher growth in growth markets as you'd expect. If you go around the world, we saw growth in North America, but we're not seeing much growth in food in North America underlying, so there's stability there. Similar picture in Europe. If you look at our growth markets across Latin America and Asia, we saw good pockets of growth. China's more challenging, although we did see volume growth in China as well. So it's actually quite balanced across the world at the moment, Chris, if that sort of helps. And could you remind me of what your third question was?

Yes, just in terms of how your business mixes in this software environment. Are you seeing less solutions driven? Are customers less willing to commit to solutions provision and it's just back to more of just ingredients provision? And just as a quick follow-on, sorry, you mentioned that CP Co. was positive for volume and revenue. Clearly, there's a different pricing dynamic there. Is that because of underlying commodities, or does it feel like the business has got better pricing power than Tate FBS?

Let me take that, your second question first. Obviously, there are different dynamics in the pricing. in the relative decline and growth of that business over the previous year, because volume was declined further in the previous couple of years. So we're seeing very strong volume recovery, which is positive. In terms of pricing, kind of similar dynamic with different views on inflation and deflation. I'd say would probably be the best way to summarize it. In terms of innovation, We saw consistent progress in the third quarter and sort of a similar kind of level to half one. So a bit like the rest of the business, it's similar. We're starting to see more conversations with customers about innovation going forward. I think that reflects the need to stimulate more market demand as well. So it's not falling off. We're looking to see an increase as we go into next year.

Okay, yeah. We have an additional question from Alex Sloan from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking the follow-up. Just on Sucralose, obviously still strong in the quarter, still very strong in the quarter. I mean, could you give us a bit more context on why customers are pulling forward orders? Is it, you know, the tariff situation? And, I mean, could this be a structural benefit? And if it is, you know, can you kind of free up more capacity to service that potential incremental demand in the US? Thanks.

So we've seen consistently strong demand from our major customers, obviously, close through the whole of this year. And that was consistent in the third quarter. So we are expecting some phasing of orders out in the fourth quarter. And obviously, it's very encouraging because it's a good validation of both. the demand for superclothes generally, but also the way we position the business to serve our customers well. That strength preceded any discussion on tariffs. I mean, clearly, any tariff imposition does create a structural benefit for us. The key for us then is to continue to serve our customers well and to eke out the modest increases in production that we can through productivity in our Macintosh facility. But as we said consistently, we are very close to the capacity ceiling. So we've always seen Superlose as a great business to be in because of its reformulation capabilities and the cash generation it creates. But we're not anticipating significant growth going forward either.

Okay, thanks. And can I just squeeze in one more just as a follow-up? I mean, I fully appreciate you're not giving guidance on 26, but just to return to the sort of, you know, broad outlook there. I mean, as I read it, you're basically saying the pricing round went similar to last year and the volume dynamics are not accelerating but, you know, maybe staying the same. So, I mean, is there any reason to think why at this stage 26 – shouldn't look too different from 25 for the core Tate standalone business? Or should we be expecting something worse in 26, which is maybe implied by the share price?

Yeah, look, I think we are looking to consistently drive balance between volume, pricing, and margin in the core business. Before we talk about the proformas and finishes, et cetera, et cetera, And, of course, that's a combination of how we manage volume, price, productivity, and mix. And we're going to continue to do that. Those are the levers that we've consistently controlled over the last few years, and we'll continue to look to control going into next year. And we'll give you more specifics on that when we get to May and when we finalize the plan. Okay. Thank you.

There are no further questions. So I'll hand back to you, Mr. Hampton, for closing remarks. Thank you, Operation, and thank you all for your call.

So in summary, we delivered another quarter of solid performance with volume and EBITDA growth and continued strong cash delivery. As we talked about in the Q&A, the integration of CP Telco is progressing to plan and the business is performing well, which only reinforces our ability and our belief in the ability of the combined business to create sustainable long-term value for shareholders. Thank you for your time and questions today, and I wish you all a very good day.

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.