Taylor Wimpey plc

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Chris and I this morning. You'll have seen the statement, which is pretty straightforward. There are no surprises. We are reiterating the full year UK completions and group operating profit guidance we provided in our prelims in February. Clearly, we are alive to the recent volatility in global markets. However, our customers have remained resilient and our sales performance has continued as anticipated. Mortgage rates have ticked down and mortgage product availability remains good. Our sales teams have continued to work hard to support our customers through their buying journey, drawing on the high quality and location of our products, with incentives remaining a key feature in the new homes market. We continue to see better price opportunity in the north and more challenging conditions in the south, owing to the more stretching affordability. But overall, we continue to see the flat underlying year-on-year pricing we noted at the time of our full year announcement. The cancellation rate of 16% is robust, but does reflect challenges being experienced by some first-time buyers following the stamp duty changes. Overall, we are where we expected to be at this point in the year, with a year-to-date sales rate, net cancellations of 0.77, so very much in line with our expectations. I know you'll be interested in how the land and planning backdrop is evolving. We've seen progress on some sites that would have taken longer, I believe, before the MPPF changes, and we look forward to additional impetus and decision-making when the Planning and Infrastructure Bill is passed into law. So whilst still early and we didn't expect planning to be fixed overnight, we have been very pleased to see the recent planning changes which we believe are capable of delivering a step change in planning outcomes. That said, there is a need for increased resources across local planning authorities and for there to be a real focus on the implementation phase now to drive meaningful and consistent outcomes. As for our own position, as I've noted previously, we are in an excellent place with a significant number of applications in the system, more in preparation, that will help support local authorities to meet their housing targets. And given our strong position, we can continue to be selective and opportunistic in the land market. Outlet openings have been in line with our plans. We are currently operating from 201, which is as we expected. and we operate from an average of 208 outlets during the period. Our plans are to open more outlets this year than last year, way towards the end of the year, positioning us well for sustained growth. So, full year 2025 guidance is unchanged. We expect to deliver between 10,400 and 10,800 UK completions, consistent with what we told you at the full year. As we also flagged, first half group operating margin will be lower than underlying margin in half one 2024, which was 11%, excluding high margin land sales. This is due to the impact of underlying pricing in the order book at the start of this year, which was around 0.5% lower year on year, flowing through to completions in the period, and the return of a low level of bill cost inflation. We are pleased to be able to pay a reliable dividend through our differentiated ordinary dividend policy, and as previously announced, we will pay a 2024 final ordinary dividend of 4.66 pence per share in May, subject to shareholder approval at today's AGM. So in conclusion, current trading has remained resilient. We expect to deliver growth this year, and we remain confident in the medium to long-term characteristics of the UK housing market. There's a significant underlying demand for new homes and our actions over the cycle mean that we are well placed with an optimised structure and teams, strong land bank and balance sheet and consistent strategy to deliver sustained growth. So happy to take questions now. Thank you.

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If for any reason you want to remove your question from the queue, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Will Jones from Redburn Atlantic. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Morning. I might try three if I could. First, around trading, we can see that the sales rate is pretty robust for the year to date, but just wondering when buyers kind of digest the latest global headlines and whether you've seen any change in the lead indicators you track, such as website inquiries, appointment bookings, and the like. Second was on outlets. You've guided some openings up year on year, which is still the case. How about closings? Do you have any view there? I guess put differently, can we expect you to exit the outlets higher at the end of December compared to start of year? And the last was around the building safety levy. We've had more detail on that since you last spoke. Just wondering on your interpretation of that and when you might think it could start impacting the P&L.

Thanks. Okay. Thanks for that, Will. So on trading, I think that despite the volatility, our customers have remained fairly resilient. And I think you can see that playing out in a strong sales performance for the period. We are watching those lead indicators quite carefully, but we're not seeing anything dramatic at this point, and we'll continue to keep quite close to our customers. On outlets, as you know, we don't guide on outlets, but I think that we've been really clear consistently through the last few calls that we will open more outlets this year than last year. and we feel that we'll be sort of well placed for sustained growth into 2026, you know, all other things being equal. So hopefully that will give you sort of an indication of where we expect to leave the year. On the building safety levy, I mean, I think still a level of disappointment will that, you know, government are continuing to pursue the building safety levy given all the other measures that house builders have put in place. The delay by year is welcome, but it's not sufficiently addressing the level of concern that the sector is expressing. You'll be aware that when the announcement on the delay came through, we also saw the individual rates, so we are now able to make a better sort of assessment of what we should be backing into land appraisals and sort of land acquisitions going forward. So that's helpful. The way that we see it is there's a year's delay. We'll see obviously what the regulations say. So there's still a lack of clarity around payment structure and the like. And then there's a level of self-help mitigating practices that we can employ and deploy. So really, I think that we're going to be four years potentially down the line before there's a real impact that isn't played through on land acquisition. I think that there's still water to flow onto the bridge. Certainly, we'd be still seeking engagement with government to understand both the principle of the building safety levy and then sort of the effective mechanisms.

Thanks, Jenny. Just to be clear, that four years, is that a reference to when you first think you'll start incurring the charge in completions because of what you can do on building control ahead of next autumn?

Yes, yes, exactly.

Cool. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Alison Sun from Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Jenny. Just two questions from my side. So first, on the cost inflation, just to confirm, still low single-digit number expected for this year, right? But do we have any expectation for first half versus second half? Is it low single-digit for both halves? Question number one. Number two is, have we heard any update from the CMA investigation, which has been delayed until May, aka next month? Have we heard any update from authorities yet? Thank you.

Okay, thanks for that, Alison. Our guidance on bill cost inflation is still very much in low single digits, so between 2% and 3%. Our teams have worked hard, we've been negotiating hard. Some of that is now present but we also have some of those agreements that will be delayed into later in the year so probably a little bit lighter in the first half with the full weight of that 2-3% in the second half. As for update on the CMA, they announced at the start of the year that they would update in May. We continue to engage constructively with the CMA and there's very little more that I could add at this time. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Marcus Cole from UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Morning, Jenny. I've got three as well. The first one is just going back to the sales outlets. I know you don't want to guide in terms of the net outlets for the rest of the year, but can you confirm is this where you think the sales outlets will trough in terms of the period of the year? And then for the guidance, I work out that the H2 margin should be 200 basis points ahead of the first half margin of around 10.5 or so. Can you just talk us through the drivers, the outside, I know there's additional volumes, but can you talk us through the other drivers that are the building blocks for that? And then the final one is just on sales outlets, sorry, sales rates are very strong at the moment. I just wonder when you start to think about increasing pricing or reducing sales incentives? Thanks.

Okay, if I take the first and last, because then you sort of cover the margin. I think confirming a trough qualifies as guidance, Marcus, but if we are where we expected to be, you'll know that sales outlet movement is very much a function of sales rates. I also said that This is the expected sales rate that we anticipated for this time of year. We've got excellent visibility on delivery from outlets this year. We've got really solid visibility on the outlets that will be opening through the year, including those waited towards the end. Just to reiterate, my comment that I made to Will, we expect to leaves a year with the ability to grow into 2026, all things being equal. And on sales rates, yeah, they are sort of strong at this point. And Marcus, sorry, your point on sales rate?

Yeah, the question was that given the high level, when will you start thinking about either increasing pricing?

So we're always thinking about pricing. You know, our teams are working hard. You know, in my sort of narrative to start, you know, I commented that we do see sort of better pricing opportunity in the north and where that opportunity is available anywhere, we are pushing it. but there is definitely sites where there is some demand weakness and achieving pricing is much more challenging. We're also seeing that given the level of competition now in the second-hand market that sales incentives are remaining quite a factor in commitment for customers and achieving the deal. But look, I would assure you that where price opportunity exists, our teams are pushing for it.

And then Marcus, on your margin question, you're absolutely right. The guidance does assume an improvement in both gross and operating margins from half one to half two. Clearly, part of that is volume being increased in half two, so that our guidance is consistent with February in terms of 45% in the first half, 55% in the second half, and that gives us a better recovery of fixed costs in the second half, but also there'll be the gradual evolution of sites, so we've got increased numbers of completions from new sites with improved margins in the second half and generally just better quality site mix across the second half. I should probably add we obviously have very good visibility of that.

Okay, thank you very much.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Millington from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Thanks very much. Thanks for taking my question. First one, sorry to kind of revert back to outlets, but I was just wondering if you could mention about the back-end loading. So I'm not asking on numbers here, but how back-end loaded are those sites? And do you think there's any risk of planning delays pushing them into 26? That was number one. Second one, I just wonder if you could just comment specifically around how London trading's been manifesting over the last few months. And then the final one's just really just about this price-cost dynamic. And If we look at it on a spot basis, do you think pricing is broadly washing its face with cost, given you've seen a little bit of pricing at the start of this year, or is it a little bit of a headwind as we move into H2? Thank you.

Okay. Thanks, Chris. I'll just start with London. I mean, London trading, I think, has been weaker. Affordability is definitely lower. a challenge outside those prime central London locations, the help to buy effect I think in London has been quite significant given the scale of the equity support that existed there. In terms of how secure they are, they are outlets for 2025, the back end loading. We've got really good visibility. We've got a very strong planning position. Look, one of the reasons that we don't like to guide in outlets is because there's a number of third party issues that need to be resolved in order to get outlets opening. But I'm as confident as I've ever been on those openings. And whether they would push into 26, equally there would be potentially the opportunity pull forward and advance some that are early in 26. So, you know, I think that I'm happy in the balancing of that, Chris. Okay, thank you. And then just on that price-cost dynamic, Chris.

Yeah, I think, Chris, your characterisation is probably pretty accurate. You know, what we're saying is net selling prices on average are flat year-on-year, and You know, we've got low levels of bill cost inflation, so you put those together and, yeah, a little bit of headwind going into half two, but absolutely assure you that the teams are working very hard to offset that.

Many thanks for your answers. Cheers.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ainsley Lamin from Investec. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

All right. Thanks. Morning. I think I've got two, actually. Just firstly, a bit more color on the sales rate. I know you said it's been holding up and you haven't really seen much impact from the kind of recent macro volatility and maybe some negative headlines. But just on that sales rate in terms of the kind of weekly sales rate sequentially, has that been improving from kind of January, February into March, April? Was it stabilized recently? Just a bit more color. Anything you could provide there would be helpful. And then secondly, on the mortgage market, obviously swap rates have come down. There's some positive headlines around what the mortgage lenders might be doing. Just interested to hear your view. Are you seeing cheaper mortgage rates on the ground? Has that all kind of impacted, or is it too early yet to actually see cheaper kind of interest rates for borrowers? Thanks.

Yeah, okay. So I think incrementally, you know, we've seen sort of week-on-week improvements. You know, the sort of... slightly slower start to the new year, as is often the case. Although, you know, our weeks 1 to 8, as you'll recall from the prelims, was quite strong versus 2024. Week 9 to 17, sales rate was 0.79. So that's a build on the first eight weeks of the year of 0.75. And even as we exclude bulks, you'll see that that was an improvement over the first eight weeks. And we're coming sort of through the Easter holidays now, and so the spring selling season will be starting to sort of ease off. But I think a really good performance from the team, Ainslie, on sales. And then mortgage market. I mean, the mortgage market continues to be really competitive. We're seeing landers. pushing their rates where they can. We are seeing incremental week on week improvements in mortgage rates and then obviously we've had some benefit with a number of the mainlanders changing their loan to income multiples and some of their other stress testing. You know, so no big step change, but lots of incremental sort of improvements, I think, to help customers, and we are seeing that gradually help.

Very clear. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Amy Gala from Citi. The line is now open. Please go ahead.

Yes, thanks. A couple of questions from me. The first one was just an update on the Section 106 take-up. Have you seen any improvements to that dynamic? The second one was on build cost inflation. Can you give us some color, especially on the labor cost side, how the NI impact on the subcontracted trades is coming through? Is there any color incrementally of how that dynamic is evolving? And the last one was on the planning process. point, you had previously commented that you had applied significant permits on first principle at the start of the year. Any color of how that has evolved in the last four months? Are you seeing that progress through the system? And on average, how long does it now take versus maybe last year in getting those permits in place?

Okay. Just on your first question, Ami, I Was the question in respect of the affordable housing section 106? Yes. Yes. Okay. Thanks for that. We haven't seen any improvement in the affordable housing sort of debate. I have to say it's on every agenda for every meeting with officials and government. The teams continue to work with our well-established partners and there are deals being done but it is a strain and definitely something that we would be looking to government to address. We would be seeking a written ministerial statement to encourage local authorities to engage in what's called the cascade mechanism. which I think would be of great assistance. In terms of bill cost, we're not seeing a great deal of pressure on labour costs at this point in time. There is conversations starting, and we're certainly feeling a little bit more pressure, but we're pushing back on that quite robustly, whereas other parts of the labour supply chain are still, I think, digesting the impacts of NI on their operations. And then on planning, I think the team are making good progress and we continue to prepare ever more applications, so we're very active in that regard. But as you'll have heard in my opening narrative, and you may recall my saying in the full year, The overarching and strategic planning changes are very welcome and very pleasing, but we do still need to see more resources going into local authorities. And so we're continuing to see some of the processing challenges that we've experienced in recent years still prevalent. And until we get more investment there, we won't get a fully free-flowing benefit system. All that said, the tone and sentiment of discussions in many authorities has improved, and I don't underestimate the value of that.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Zane Bikawa from JP Morgan. The line is now open. Please go ahead.

Morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple on land. I think you've mentioned, you know, there's some attractive opportunities. Could you just, you know, perhaps provide some color on the regional split of these and perhaps the size of these plots? And then secondly, on the pricing in the land market, if that's sort of come off a little bit. Thank you.

In terms of availability, I'd probably characterize it overall as continuing to be constrained. There are some geographies that don't have that same heightened level of constraint and competition. Varying lot sizes, there's some quite large sites that are being presented to the market, smaller sites, there's a higher level of competition. So that dynamic has been observable for quite some time. We approved quite a significant number, 12,000 plus last year. We started the year with a very strong short-term land bank, and we're now in the place where it's the quality of the location, quality of the return that will drive our land investment. So this year, more opportunistic and very much about the quality of the investment.

Thank you very much.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Glynis Johnson from Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Morning. Just two for me, actually. One, how far forward are you sold for the year? And then two, is there anything in terms of promotions that you've been doing sort of post the Easter period? I'm just wondering what you think is capturing the customer's attention. Is it more about the higher loan to value mortgages and aiming at the first time buyers or it's still very heavily focused on the part exchange? Just what kind of promotions have been rolled out in the more recent weeks?

Okay, so in terms of forward sold, Glynis, if you take the middle of the volume range that we've given, we're just over 70% forward sold for the year, which I think is just slightly ahead of where we were at this point last year. And then promotions. We don't have any significant group-wide promotions. It's my expectation that our teams are driving local outlet openings, Easter days, maybe a May bank holiday type of marketing activity. There's always a real buzz around our sites on good bank holiday weekends. PX hasn't been a particularly significant tool recently. It is something that's available to our teams and that's helpful for the customer and then something that we're willing to consider. So there's nothing especially that we're driving to drive the sales rate other than our normal practices. We still try to build our deal structure and any incentives around the individual customer needs. And by doing so, ensuring that we're not over-indexing incentives for any particular customer.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Peter Ayosa-Diogan from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Good morning. One from me. I just wanted to ask around potentially how you're thinking about the opportunity and growing volumes through increased partnerships. I know some of your peers seem to be leaning into this and it does seem aligned with the government's house building agenda. So I just wanted to understand if there was any appetite from your end to lean into that. And if not, why? Maybe just because it's helpful to drive volumes faster. So we'll be interested to know either way.

Okay, so sort of both deals over a variety of partnerships has been a chill in our arsenal for a long time and it is something that we're willing to consider depending on the quality of the return and the impact on a very project by project basis. So if you look at your, for example, sales rate towards the end of last year, that we declared in our January trading statement. There was a large bulk deal there, for example, that was part of a planned scheme that we'd been aware of for some time. But there are benefits and disbenefits in all of these arrangements. Partnerships or large-scale sales do tend to come with discounts, sometimes quite meaningful discounts. and if the delivery of those homes spread over a multiple year basis or a multi-year deal runs the risk of having set revenues but potentially incurring significant bill cost increases. So it's always a balance. We have a number of partners with whom we've worked over a very long and consistent period of time to the benefit of both sides of the partnership and that's very much our mindset. We're not especially leaning into it, but by that you should not read that we don't utilize it as a tool. And as we see volumes increase, then we will make those decisions on a sort of deal-by-deal and project-by-project basis.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Harry Goad from Berenberg. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Yeah, hi, morning, Jenny and Chris.

Oh, we lost you, Harry. Hello. No, sorry, Harry. We didn't hear you.

Are you able to hear me?

Yes, we can hear you now. Okay, sorry about that.

So my question was coming back to your first comment on the build safety levy. Are you able to give any sort of initial guide on what you think it could be in terms of incremental costs on a per plot basis on average. And then I guess sort of slightly associated to that, as you look out over the next couple of years.

Sorry, Hari, we lost you again. So we got to your building safety lobby question. on a per plot basis and then we lost you.

Sorry, Annette, I was saying, are there any other issues when you think about sort of building regs over the next couple of years that will increase average build cost per plot on a normalised basis? Just thinking about what you need to do, re-land prices over the next couple of years. Thank you.

Okay. I think that it's going to be difficult for us to sort of give a per plot number. The various rates are available on the government website, but it really will depend then on what our regional mix and Greenfield, Brownfield and a variety of other issues there. But that's something that we will build on over the coming years. In terms of other building regulation costs, there's the well-trailed Future Home Standard would probably be the other cost that I'd flagged for you. We're still waiting for the response on the Future Home Standard. It is expected this summer. There's quite a wide range of options. If you remember from the original consultation, there were two options. They had quite significantly different cost implications. So being able to define what the impact of that is, we'll have to wait until we have a clear idea of which option government decide to back.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you. We currently have no further questions, so I'll hand back to Jenny for closing remarks.

Okay, thank you all for your questions this morning, and we look forward to seeing you again at the interims in the summer.