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AGNC Investment Corp.
1/28/2025
Good morning and welcome to the AG&C Investment Corp Fourth Quarter 2024 Shareholder Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch-tone phone, and to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Katie Turlington in Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you all for joining AG&C Investment Corp's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to review the Safe Harbor Statement. This conference call and corresponding slide presentation contain statements that, to the extent they are not recitations of historical facts, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All such forward-looking statements are intended to be subject to the safe harbor protection provided by their format. Actual outcomes and results could differ materially from those forecast due to the impact of many factors beyond the control of AG&C. All forward-looking statements included in this presentation are made only as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements are included in AGMC's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Copies are available on the SEC's website at sec.gov. We disclaim any obligation to update our forward-looking statements unless required by law. Participants on this call include Peter Federico, Director, President, and Chief Executive Officer. Bernie Bell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Chris Kuehl, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer. Aaron Pass, Senior Vice President, Non-Agency Portfolio Management. And Sean Reed, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development. With that, I'll turn the call over to Peter Federico.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. The favorable investment themes that emerged in 2024 continue to support our positive outlook for agency mortgage-backed securities. Last year the Fed shifted its restrictive monetary policy stance and began the process of returning short-term rates to a neutral level. Declining inflationary pressures and accommodative monetary policy caused interest rate volatility to ease and the yield curve to steepen after being inverted for more than two years. As we begin 2025, the supply and demand outlook for agency MBS appears to be well balanced. In addition, and most important to our business, we expect agency spreads to benchmark rates to remain in the same well-defined trading range, thus providing levered and unlevered investors very attractive return opportunities. Against this improved investment backdrop, AGNC generated a positive economic return of 13.2% in 2024, driven by our compelling monthly dividend. Our performance last year demonstrates AGNC's ability to generate strong investment returns in environments where spreads are wide and stable. Since September, the Fed lowered short-term rates by 100 basis points as it recalibrated monetary policy. While the path of monetary policy continues to move toward a neutral level, strong economic data late in the quarter extended the timeline, as evidenced by the Fed's December summary of economic projections, which showed fewer rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 relative to the September release. The U.S. presidential election also raised concerns about fiscal policy, deficit spending, and the magnitude of future Treasury issuance. This elevated monetary and fiscal policy uncertainty overshadowed the positive investment sentiment that characterized the first three quarters of the year. Together the sharp increase in interest rates and modestly wider agency spreads drove our slightly negative economic return for the fourth quarter. As we begin 2025, our outlook for agency mortgage-backed securities continues to be very favorable. Despite significant monetary policy easing, longer-term interest rates have increased meaningfully, and the 30-year primary mortgage rate is once again close to 7%. At this rate level, the supply of agency MBS this year should be similar to what we experienced last year and reasonably well aligned with investor demand. Greater bank demand is also possible, given the likelihood of less onerous regulation. Lastly, agency mortgage-backed securities offer investors unique diversification benefits and an attractive return profile, but are difficult for many investors to access. AGNC's common stock provides investors an easy way to invest in this unique fixed income asset class on a levered and hedged basis, which is otherwise only available to institutional investors with sophisticated trading desks. So in summary, The current monetary policy stance of the Fed provides a positive underlying investment foundation for high quality fixed income instruments like agency mortgage backed securities, particularly at current valuation levels. The supply and demand outlook for agency MBS appears to be well balanced with upside demand possible. And finally, we expect agency spreads to remain in their current attractive trading range. Collectively, these positive dynamics create a favorable investment backdrop for AGNC in 2025. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Bernie Bell to discuss our financial results in greater detail.
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