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AGNC Investment Corp.
10/21/2025
Good morning and welcome to the AG&C Investment Corp third quarter 2025 shareholder call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. And to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Katie Turlington in Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Thank you all for joining AG&C Investment Corp's third quarter 2025 earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to review the Safe Harbor Statement. This conference call and corresponding slide presentation contain statements that, to the extent they are not recitations of historical facts, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All such forward-looking statements are intended to be subject to the safe harbor protection provided by the Reform Act. Actual outcomes and results could differ materially from those forecast due to the impact of many factors beyond the control of AG&C. All forward-looking statements included in this presentation are made only as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements are included in AGNC's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Copies are available on the SEC's website at sec.gov. We disclaim any obligation to update our forward-looking statements unless required by law. Participants on the call include Peter Federico, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer, Bernie Bell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Sean Reed, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development. With that, I'll turn the call over to Peter Federico.
Good morning, and thank you all for joining our conference call. In the third quarter, the Federal Reserve's pivot to a less restrictive monetary policy stance and the easing of fiscal policy concerns drove robust financial market performance, and a significant improvement in investor sentiment. Agency mortgage-backed securities were one of the best performing fixed income asset classes during the quarter and have now outperformed U.S. Treasuries for five consecutive months, a sequence of outperformance that has not happened since 2013. In this favorable investment environment, AGNC generated a very strong economic return of 10.6%, comprised of our attractive monthly dividend and book value appreciation. At its September meeting, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate as expected and signaled further monetary policy accommodation with the possibility of rate cuts at the October and December meetings. On the fiscal policy side, the passage of the tax bill early in the quarter and several positive tariff developments eased some of the concerns that dampened the investment outlook in the second quarter. These investor-friendly developments led to a material decline in interest rate volatility and contributed to the outperformance of agency MBS. As we have discussed, a number of emerging factors support our constructive outlook for agency mortgage-backed securities. The first relates to the improved spread environment for agency MBS. Over the last four years, the spread range between agency securities and benchmark rates has become increasingly well-defined, with incremental investor demand consistently emerging when spreads trade near the upper end of the range. In addition, the administration has begun to focus on mortgage spreads as a means of improving housing affordability. In an interview in late September, the Treasury Secretary reinforced this view when he said, the really important thing is that we either maintain mortgage spreads or narrow them further to help the American people. This focus on spreads by the administration is good for agency MBS and good for our business. Second, the supply and demand dynamic for agency mortgage-backed securities continues to be well balanced. With the primary mortgage rate persistently above 6%, the net new supply of agency MBS this year will be about $200 billion, the lower end of initial expectations. At the same time, the demand outlook has improved. Bank demand for agency MBS has been relatively muted this year, but should increase as regulatory reforms get implemented. The money manager community is another important source of demand for agency MBS. Demand from this sector increased meaningfully in the third quarter as the favorable shift in monetary policy led to $180 billion of bond fund inflows, which are now running slightly ahead of last year's pace. Third, the financing market for agency MBS remains strong. With bank reserves just under $3 trillion, the Fed will likely end balance sheet runoff within the next few months. Importantly, the Fed is also considering joining the FICC for purposes of the standing repo facility and using a repo-based measure as its primary target rate. If adopted, these changes would be highly beneficial to the repo market for U.S. Treasuries and agency MBS, particularly during times of stress. Fourth and finally, the potential path of GFC reform continues to move in a favorable direction. The Treasury Department has taken a leadership role in the reform process, holding a series of roundtable discussions with a wide range of housing and mortgage market participants to gain insight into potential reform actions. This careful approach demonstrates the Treasury's commitment to maintaining mortgage market stability. To that end, the Treasury has emphasized three important guiding principles for GFC reform. Maximize taxpayer value, lower the mortgage rate through stable or tighter mortgage spreads, and do no harm to the housing finance system. The mortgage market has responded well to this approach. Collectively, the four factors that I mentioned are currently pointing in a favorable direction for agency MBS. Moreover, given the Treasury's thoughtful approach, it is possible the agency market emerges from this reform process with a stronger and more durable structure. In this evolving investment environment, we believe AGNC as the largest pure play levered agency investment vehicle is well positioned to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Bernie Bell, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss our financial results in greater detail.
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