1/27/2026

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the AGNC Investment Court Fourth Quarter 2025 Shareholder Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Katie Weiskarver in Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Katie Weiskarver
Investor Relations

Thank you all for joining AGNC Investment Corp's fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to review the Safe Harbor Statement. This conference call and corresponding slide presentation contain statements that to the extent they are not recitations of historical fact, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All such forward-looking statements are intended to be subject to the safe harbor protection provided by the Reform Act. Actual outcomes and results could differ materially from those forecast due to the impact of many factors beyond the control of AGMC. All forward-looking statements included in this presentation are made only as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements are included in AGNC's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Copies are available on the SEC's website at sec.gov. We disclaim any obligation to update our forward-looking statements unless required by law. Participants on the call include Peter Federico, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer, Bernie Bell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Sean Reed, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development. With that, I'll turn the call over to Peter Federico.

speaker
Peter Federico
President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter earnings conference call. 2025 was an exceptional year for AG&C shareholders. AGNC's 11.6% economic return in the fourth quarter drove our impressive full-year economic return of 22.7%. Even more noteworthy, AGNC's total stock return in 2025 was 34.8% with dividends reinvested, nearly double the performance of the S&P 500. This outstanding performance on an absolute and relative basis clearly demonstrates the value of AGNC's actively managed portfolio of agency mortgage-backed securities and associated hedges. Looking back, we were confident that AGNC was on the forefront of a uniquely positive investment environment as the Fed's unprecedented tightening cycle of 2022 and 2023 reached its conclusion. On our third quarter earnings call in 2023, we expressed our belief that a durable and attractive investment environment for AG&C was emerging as mortgage spreads began to stabilize at historically attractive return levels. That outlook proved to be correct, and in the nine quarters since that call, and despite several episodes of extreme market turbulence, AG&C has generated a an economic return of 50% for its shareholders, comprised of a 10% increase in book value and monthly dividends totaling $3.24 per share. Moreover, during that same time period, AG&C shareholders have experienced a total stock return of nearly 60% or 23% on an annualized basis. And finally, since inception, AGNC has generated a total stock return of over 11% on an annualized basis with dividends reinvested, demonstrating the long-term benefit of investing in this unique fixed income asset class and the durability of our business model across a wide range of market environments. Turning back to 2025, The Bloomberg Aggregate Agency Index was the best performing fixed income sector in the fourth quarter and for the year produced a total return of 8.6%. Also noteworthy, given the similar credit quality, the Agency Index outperformed the Treasury Index by 2.3 percentage points or 36% in 2025. As I discussed throughout the year, the favorable performance of agency MBS was driven by a confluence of positive factors. First, the Fed shifted its monetary policy stance toward lower short-term rates and greater accommodation, a promising development for all fixed-income assets. The Fed also transitioned its balance sheet activity from quantitative tightening to reserve management. Second, interest rate volatility trended lower throughout the year due to the shift in monetary policy, greater fiscal policy clarity, and a stable supply outlook for Treasury securities, which included a greater share of short-term debt. Lastly, the uncertainty and potential risks associated with GSC reform that adversely impacted the agency market early in the year gradually dissipated as the Treasury Department and other officials communicated an approach to GSE reform that focused on reducing the spread on agency mortgage-backed securities, maintaining mortgage market stability, and improving housing affordability. Collectively, these factors combined with the sizable purchase of MBS by the GSEs later in the year caused spreads to tighten and drove the substantial outperformance of agency MBS relative to other fixed income asset classes. As we begin 2026, these favorable macro themes remain in place and provide a constructive investment backdrop for our business. In addition, other positive developments are possible, including further actions by the administration to to improve housing affordability. The recent $200 billion MBS purchase announcement is a good example of the type of action that could result in tighter mortgage spreads and lower mortgage rates. The funding market for agency MBS has also improved in response to the Fed increasing the size of its balance sheet and improving the functionality of its standing repo program. The Fed is also considering other actions to further improve the utility of the standing repo program, which if implemented, would be highly beneficial to the agency MBS market. Finally, the supply and demand outlook for agency MBS remains well balanced. At current rate levels, the net new supply of agency MBS this year is expected to be about $200 billion. When combined with the Fed's runoff, the private sector will have to absorb about $400 billion of MBS in 2026, an amount similar to the previous two years. On the demand side of the equation, however, the investor base today is more diversified and positioned to expand, with GSE purchases potentially consuming about half of this year's supply. At the same time, bank, money manager, foreign investor, and REIT demand should all remain strong. Pulling this all together, the underlying fundamental and technical backdrop for agency mortgage-backed securities continues to be favorable and supportive of our positive outlook. Moreover, as the largest pure-play agency mortgage REIT, we believe AGNC, is very well positioned to generate compelling risk-adjusted returns with a substantial yield component for our shareholders. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Bernie Bell to discuss our financial performance.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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