4/21/2026

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good morning and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp first quarter 2026 shareholder call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Katie Turlington in Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Katie Turlington
Investor Relations

Thank you all for joining AG&C Investment Corp's first quarter 2026 earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to review the Safe Harbor Statement. This conference call and corresponding slide presentation contain statements that, to the extent they are not recitations of historical fact, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All such forward-looking statements are intended to be subject to the safe harbor protection provided by the Reform Act. Actual outcomes and results could differ materially from those forecasts due to the impact of many factors beyond the control of AGNC. All forward-looking statements included in this presentation are made only as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements are included in AGMC's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Copies are available on the SEC's website at sec.gov. We disclaim any obligation to update our forward-looking statements unless required by law. Participants on the call include Peter Federico, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer, Bernie Bell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Sean Reed, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development. With that, I'll turn the call over to Peter Federico.

speaker
Peter Federico
President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Good morning, and thank you all for joining our first quarter earnings conference call. Agency MBS performance in the first quarter was driven by two very divergent investment themes. In January and February, the administration's focus focused on reducing interest rate volatility, maintaining mortgage spread stability, and improving housing affordability drove strong performance across the fixed income markets. Agency MBS performance was particularly strong during this period as President Trump's January 8th directive instructing the GSEs to purchase $200 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities push spreads through the lower end of the recent three-year trading range. In March, however, uncertainty associated with the war in Iran and the potential for a more widespread conflict in the Middle East caused interest rate volatility to increase, investor sentiment to turn negative, and agency MBS spreads to widen significantly. As a result, AGNC's economic return in the first quarter was negative 1.6%. Despite the spread widening to swaps quarter over quarter, Agency MBS outperformed U.S. Treasuries and investment-grade corporate bonds in the first quarter, again demonstrating the diversification benefits of this unique, high-credit-quality fixed-income asset class. At the beginning of the year, I discussed a number of factors that we believe would benefit agency MBS performance in 2026. Among these were low interest rate volatility and an accommodative monetary policy stance. In the first quarter, however, the Middle East conflict caused interest rate volatility to increase and Fed rate cuts to become more uncertain. While the duration and economic implications of the conflict are still unknown, recent developments are encouraging and these factors could once again be positive catalysts for agency MBS performance. More importantly, many of the other factors that I discussed actually improved in the first quarter and now further strengthen the outlook for agency MBS. Most notably, at current spread levels, the return profile on agency MBS is more attractive. At the time of our fourth quarter earnings conference call, the spread differential between current coupon MBS and a blend of swaps was 135 basis points. Over the last two months, that spread has ranged between 150 and 175 basis points as a result of heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic risks. We believe agency MBS in this spread range represent compelling value on both an absolute and relative basis. The supply outlook for Agency MBS also improved in the first quarter. At the start of the year, the net new supply of Agency MBS was expected to be approximately $250 billion, assuming a mortgage rate of just below 6%. With mortgage rates now about 50 basis points higher, MBS supply could be $50 to $70 billion lower this year. The demand outlook for agency MBS improved in the first quarter as well. Money manager demand for MBS increased materially in the first quarter as bond fund inflows came in about double the pace of the previous two years. U.S. bank regulators also released their proposed bank regulatory capital framework for comments. As expected, the proposal includes lower capital requirements for high quality mortgage credit. These favorable capital requirements could lead banks to retain a greater share of mortgage credit in whole loan form or to utilize the private label securitization path to a greater extent, thereby reducing the GFC footprint over time. Finally, With mortgage spreads wider and the mortgage rate now in the low to mid 6% range, the administration may take further actions to improve housing affordability. Such actions could include more aggressive GSE purchases or increases in GSE portfolio size limits. Either or both of these actions would benefit mortgage performance. In addition, While the funding markets for agency MBS are deep and liquid, further actions by the Fed to improve the functionality and accessibility of the standing repo program could also be catalysts for tighter mortgage spreads and lower mortgage rates. In summary, although the sharp increase in geopolitical and macroeconomic risk creates a more challenging investment environment over the near term, The return profile and technical backdrop for agency mortgage-backed securities improved in the first quarter. In addition, actions by the administration to improve housing affordability are more likely. As we are continually reminded, market conditions change quickly. A prompt resolution to the Middle East conflict, while at times difficult to predict, could lead to a substantial reduction in volatility and inflationary pressures. Collectively, these conditions support our favorable outlook for agency mortgage-backed securities. Moreover, AGNC remains well-positioned to capitalize on these favorable conditions and build upon our lengthy track record of generating strong risk-adjusted returns for our stockholders over a wide range of market cycles. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Bernie Bell to discuss our financial results in greater detail.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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