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AGNC Investment Corp.
7/21/2026
Good morning and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp. Second Quarter 2026 Shareholder Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, Please press star then 2. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Katie Turlington in Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you all for joining AGMC Investment Corp.'s second quarter 2026 earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to review the safe harbor statement. This conference call and corresponding slide presentation contain statements that, to the extent they are not recitations of historical fact, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All such forward-looking statements are intended to be subject to the safe harbor protection provided by the Reform Act. Actual outcomes and results could differ materially from those forecast due to the impact of many factors beyond the control of AGMC. All forward-looking statements included in this presentation are made only as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements are included in AGNC's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Copies are available on the SEC's website at sec.gov. We disclaim any obligation to update our forward-looking statements unless required by law. Participants on the call include Peter Federico, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer, Bernie Bell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Sean Reid, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development. With that, I'll turn the call over to Peter Federico.
Good morning, and thank you all for joining our second quarter earnings conference call. The investment environment in the second quarter continued to be challenging, as escalating rhetoric and hostilities between the United States and Iran largely dictated financial market performance. With ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, elevated energy prices and supply chain disruptions were the dominant macroeconomic concerns for the quarter. These concerns caused Treasury yields to increase, the yield curve to flatten, and the market's outlook for monetary policy to pivot from rate cuts to rate hikes by year end. Despite the elevated geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty and the bearish shift in fixed income sentiment during the quarter, AGNC generated a strong economic return of 6.7% comprised of our attractive monthly dividend and improvement in our tangible book value per common share. Also notable The monthly common stock dividend that we paid at the beginning of this month marked the 75th consecutive monthly dividend payment of 12 cents per share, a track record of performance that we believe illustrates the value of AGNC's disciplined approach to risk management and portfolio construction over a wide range of investment environments. The improvement in our tangible book value was driven by the solid performance of Agency MBS, which generated a positive excess return to U.S. Treasuries for the fifth consecutive quarter. This five-quarter track record of outperformance is unusual and particularly noteworthy given the similar credit quality of these two asset classes. The catalyst for the favorable performance of Agency MBS was improving technical factors. With the primary mortgage rate continuing to be above 6.5%, the net new supply of agency MBS this year will likely drop to about $150 billion, materially lower than the supply estimates at the beginning of the year. Elevated mortgage rates have also caused prepayment speeds to slow. As a result, MBS runoff from the Fed's portfolio will be lower than expected this year. Against the backdrop of falling supply, the demand for agency mortgage-backed securities has remained strong. Through the first six months of the year, bond fund inflows have totaled more than $400 billion and are running about double the pace of last year. A significant portion of these inflows get invested in agency mortgage-backed securities and are an important source of demand. Banks, foreign investors, and REITs should also all continue to be net purchasers of agency MBS over the remainder of the year. Lastly, with the outlook for private credit deteriorating and equity valuations stretched by many measures, the demand for high quality fixed income assets should remain strong or perhaps even increase over the near term. We expect these favorable supply and demand dynamics to become more apparent over time and to benefit agency MBS performance in the second half of the year. Another important consideration that shapes the outlook for agency MBS is the compelling value that this asset class offers relative to corporate bonds. In the second quarter, corporate bonds were the best performing fixed income sector by a wide margin, significantly outperforming both U.S. Treasuries and agency MBS. The Bloomberg Investment Grade Corporate Index and the Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Index ended the second quarter at spreads to U.S. Treasuries of 75 and 290 basis points respectively, levels that were among the lowest on record. Surprisingly, these historically tight spread levels come at a time when corporate issuance this year is expected to exceed $1.1 trillion. make in 2026 the largest corporate debt issuance year ever. In light of the approved technical backdrop and despite elevated geopolitical risk, our outlook for agency MBS remains encouraging. Agency MBS spreads have moved little this year and continue to be wide by historical standards despite supply being lower than expected and demand being greater than expected. Corporate spreads, on the other hand, have narrowed through the first half of the year and are tight by historical standards, despite record issuance and rising credit concerns. Once the current elevated level of geopolitical and monetary policy uncertainty subsides, we believe these constructive dynamics will become more apparent and over time drive favorable agency MBS performance. Moreover, we believe AGNC is well positioned to continue to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders in this environment. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Bernie Bell, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss our financial results in greater detail.
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