Aemetis, Inc

Hello and welcome to the AMETIS Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Joining us today are Eric McAfee, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer, and Andy Foster, President of AMETIS Advanced Fuels. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Todd Waltz.

Thank you and welcome everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during the call, we'll make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Security Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risk and uncertainty that could cause actual results that differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filings for discussion of these risks. For the second quarter of 2026, revenue grew 20% to $62.7 million. compared to $52.2 million in the second quarter of 2025, with growth in both the California ethanol and dairy renewable natural gas operating segments. Biodiesel revenue relied upon sales from private customers. The three India oil marketing company customers issued about 17 million of allocations to our India subsidiary in late July, allowing us to begin biodiesel shipments under this new tender. Operating income improved by $16.4 million to $5.8 million in Q2 2026, compared with an operating loss of $10.7 million for the second quarter of 2025. Net loss improved by $14 million to $9.4 million, compared to $23.4 million in the second quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $15.5 million to $9.7 million in the second quarter of 2026, compared with a negative $5.8 million in the second quarter of 2025. The reconciliation with adjusted EBITDA to net loss is described in our earnings release issued today. An important new revenue component should be noted. Section 45C credits contributed $8.6 million, $2.2 million in dairy renewable natural gas, and $6.4 million in California ethanol. Excluding 45C credits entirely, Q2 gross profit of $13.8 million still improved by more than $8 million year over year, driven by lower-priced corn, $6.07 a bushel versus $6.42 a bushel, a 12% increase in ethanol volume, ethanol pricing up 9%, and a significant 38% increase in RNG volume. Cash at the end of the quarter was $1 million. On July 9th, we announced that we received $17.6 million in net cash proceeds from the sale of Section 45Z credits. Capital investments supporting our energy efficiency projects and investments in biogas production were $8.6 million in the quarter and $15.1 million for the first half. With that overview, I'll turn the call over to Eric.

Thank you, Todd. Let's highlight three key takeaways from the second quarter. First, Q2 continues the financial inflection points we noted during the last earnings call. We grew consolidated revenue 20% year over year, posted an improvement in operating income of $16.4 million, and increased adjusted EBITDA by $15.5 million compared to the second quarter of 2025. Second, we benefited from the California Air Resources Board approval a year ago of seven new low carbon fuel standard pathways for our renewable natural gas business at an average carbon intensity score of negative 380 compared with the negative 150 default carbon intensity score for these digesters shown in Q2 2025 revenue. The approval of seven biogas digesters has been providing additional revenue at the higher LCFS value each quarter since Q3 2025. and six additional biogas digester pathways are nearing approval. These LCFS pathway approvals substantially expand the LCFS credit generation per MMBTU of RNG produced and will continue to drive meaningful revenue increases as we scale production. And third, our capital projects are advancing. Let's review these projects and how we continue to create value as federal and state laws are being implemented. In our dairy renewable natural gas business, Every MMVTU of dairy RNG generates four revenue streams. The natural gas molecule, a California low-carbon fuel standard credit that is sold to oil companies, a federal D3 RIN that is sold to oil companies, and a Section 45Z production tax credit. The LCFS credit and the 45Z tax credit are calculated using the carbon intensity of our biofuels. So credits are generated in proportion to how far below the standard a biofuel is scored. An LCFS pathway at negative 380 generates substantially more credit for MMBTU than the negative 150 default score. We have seven approved LCFS pathways averaging negative 380, with six more in the CARB process. For the 45Z production tax credit, The credits we sold in July were valued at $15.20 per MMBTU at a negative 42 emissions rate, an emissions rate which generates significantly less revenue than required under the one big beautiful bill. We anticipate that the Department of Energy will correct this oversight with an updated emissions rate that more accurately reflects the carbon reductions created by the renewable natural gas that we produce. As their renewable natural gas volume grows, All four revenue streams grow, but the approval of LCFS pathways in California and a correct emissions rate issued by the Department of Energy are expected to create significant increases in revenues from the same level of renewable natural gas production. We are waiting for the six pending digesters to be approved under the California LCFS. and the corrected 45Z emissions rate to be implemented by the Department of Energy so we can generate renewable natural gas revenues that are consistent with existing laws in California and at the federal level. Congress and the California legislature already passed the underlying laws that allow for these improvements. We now need the carbon pathways and the LCFS, the 45Z calculations to be implemented to generate the full amount of revenues from our RNG production. We operate 12 biogas digesters today, taking waste from 15 dairies and transporting biogas through a 36 mile pipeline to our RNG production facility that is connected to utility gas pipeline. We have more than 50 dairies under contract. Two more methane capture digesters are scheduled to be completed within a month. and we have received 10 of the 15 cleanup and compression units that will be located at the next 15 digesters to come online. Regarding our California ethanol business, we had a good quarter and have two projects that are slated to significantly improve our financial performance in addition to the expected reduction in core emission rates that will increase 45z revenues. Our mechanical vapor recompression system installation is an energy efficiency project that is expected to add approximately $32 million in annual cash flow from three positive impacts on our operations. We will reduce about 80% of the natural gas needed for our operations at the Keys ethanol plant, which is a direct cost reduction that begins at commissioning. Removing fossil gas lowers the carbon intensity of our ethanol, which raises the value of the 45Z credit and LCFS credits generated by every gallon of ethanol. The MDR project is making excellent progress. The key equipment arrived in June, including six 3500 horsepower turbofans, and the final large component arrived on site this week. Foundation concrete was poured in the past week, and the system is expected to be operational by the end of 2026. The MDR project has received approximately $19.7 million in grants and Section 48C tax credits from the California Energy Commission, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, and the IRS. Second, we are installing upgraded corn oil separation units. Distillers corn oil is recovered from the ethanol process and sold as a low carbon feedstock into the renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel markets. where demand has strengthened this year with higher federal renewable volume obligations. We have two of the three corn oil extraction units in operation with a third scheduled for later this fall. Combined, the units are expected to approximately double corn oil production compared to our first quarter production rate. Our Indian biofuels business is shipping biodiesel to oil marketing companies and to private customers. Biodiesel revenue was $2.5 million in the quarter, down sequentially as the oil marketing companies worked through their tender process that concluded in late July. On August 4th, we announced allocations to supply more than 18 million liters to India's three government-owned oil marketing companies over a three-month period, which is expected to generate approximately $17 million in revenue. Deliveries under the tender allocation are underway. We are also expecting to increase supply to private commercial customers due to increases in the price of India petroleum diesel this year. India's stated goal is to raise biodiesel blending from 1% today to 5% by 2030, which would create about 1.2 billion gallons of annual biodiesel consumption. We continue to prepare documentation for a potential public offering of a minority stake in universal biofuels subject to market conditions. Our outlook on milestones and typing includes two dairy digesters completing within a month, the third corn oil unit operational later this fall, doubling corn oil production over Q1 2026, MDR operational at the ethanol plant by the end of 2026, six additional low carbon fuel standard pathways moving through CARB with a customary look back on approval, Dairy RNG and corn ethanol feedstock 45Z CF greet updates from the Department of Energy generating significant increases in renewable natural gas and ethanol revenues. And lastly, India deliveries across the current allocation period with additional orders anticipated before year end. Thank you to our shareholders, analysts and partners for your continued support. Operators, let's take some questions.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we will be conducting our question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue, and you may press star 2 if you wish to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question today is coming from Derek Whitfield with Texas Capital. Your line is live.

Good morning, Eric and team. Hello, Derek. I wanted to start on 45Z. Given the likely positive revision you'll receive in your CI score when the PER is finalized in November policy, Do you have a sense of the amount of uplift you'll receive and the potential catch-up value for past molecules that have been processed under existing policy?

We have three different 45Z updates we're expecting, two of which we have high competence and the third of which we have moderate level competence. The first is the very renewable natural gas calculation a month ago was determined it was yet to be determined. So that number in California converted into kilograms would be about a negative 420 under the federal 45Z calculator. We're currently at negative 42. We do not have good clarity on where we're going to land between negative 42 and negative 420. So I can't give a whole lot of guidance on that. And unfortunately, the Department of Energy has not been really open about their process either. But the calculator is currently generally about $15.20. We have posted on our presentation showing that we could earn over $75 per MMBTU and negative 375. The range is rather wide about what we should see per MMBTU. In ethanol, the corn emission rate improvement would be anywhere from $6 million to $24 million of actual net cash improvement. And that range is more defined because of the USDA calculator. What is not defined yet is exactly what periods will apply to. Treasury guidance has shown it would start January 1, 2025. And so if it does, then we'll have about an 18-month look back at a one-time recapture of that year and a half. And then we share a portion of that with other parties involved with calculating the emissions rate and the farmers, of course. The annual impact will be probably in the six to twelve million dollars per year but with a one-time catch-up in the emissions rate. The last and third 45Z update is CO2 reuse. We currently reuse all of our CO2. We produce roughly 150,000 plus tons a year of CO2 and we have a facility that's operated by the Messer company of Germany and so we currently do not get any 45Z calculation value for that. Under 45Q, the reuse of CO2 generates value, but under 45Z, currently it is not and we're working to fix that. So the economic value of that would be somewhere probably in the $12 million a year range as we optimize CO2. and then lastly, I'll just mention this, the MBR will generate a significant amount of additional 45Z revenue by decreasing our natural gas use by 80%.

Great update and great detail. I wanted to shift over to California LC Advance with my follow up. I wanted to get your thoughts on the recovery of low carbon fuel standard credits just based on what we saw last week in the 1Q CARB report. and also the proliferation of LCFS markets that we're seeing and we're increasingly seeing some of your competitors sell into the CFR market as well. So we'd love your thoughts on how to expect the recovery of LCFS credit prices.

Andy, do you want to talk about CFR?

Just briefly that we're going through the process of qualifying for CFR. As you know, Derek, it's about a nine-month process to get registered and all the rest. significantly better values for the gas sold to Canada. So obviously, that's an appealing market. And as more companies start to do that, obviously, that'll probably normalize some of the values that we're seeing. But we are actively underway and going through the registration process in Canada.

And the California LCFS, predictably, is in deficit. What I think the market is learning is is that as renewable diesel capacity increases, you have two constraints on generating more LCFS credits. First constraint is that there's only a certain amount of low carbon feedstock in the market. Tallow, UCO, distillers, corn oil is very limited. And so you can double your renewable diesel capacity, but you're not doubling the number of LCFS credits when more soybeans and canola is used as the number of gallons increased. The second very real constraint is that over 80% of the diesel in California, about a 4 billion gallon market, is already renewable diesel. So if you look back over the last 36 months and say, wow, we're going to double the amount of renewable diesel used in California, you run out of trucks. So those two very significant constraints means that you're not seeing this growth rate of LCFS credits. Technically, you see a decrease over the last two quarters in LCFS credits produced by renewable diesel. Also, electricity was down, renewable diesel was down. You're seeing declines in the production of LCFS credits at the same time, as you know, every single year, the number of LCFS credits that have to be delivered is increased. So this is resulting in a larger deficit every quarter. We expect this will go on for a price for the next 15 years. If you just read the data, that's sort of the way it's going to work. and at some point in time, traders will realize it's cheaper to buy $100 or $200 LCFS credit than to run out of the LCFS bank and have to pay the max, which is today over $250 per credit.

Very helpful. Thanks for your time.

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Ed Wu with Ascendian Capital. Your line is lined.

Yeah, congratulations on all the progress. Going back to the LCFS credit recovery, you know, the pricing has gone from about $55 ton to about $80 a ton recently. Do you have any guidance on how high do you think it can go?

Excellent. Well, the cap is 270, so we know the regulators, it's $200 plus the cost of living index starting in 2016. It's a calculator. We fully expect that the oil industry is doing what it can to try to convince California regulators not to enforce the rules. I think the reality is this is a 20-year program that was adopted in July of 2025. and there's a very limited amount of appetite for people to go back through what was a four year process of putting this in place. And so we expect that the program itself will continue to generate deficits and we're largely just measuring How long it will take for major purchasers and obligated parties to decide that they should load up and be well positioned for the longer term. Right now, I think people are relying upon the large amount of credits in the bank. But as that excess pile of credits gets rapidly depleted, I think more and more traders will look out three to four years and decide they don't want to pay $270 per credit.

Great, that sounds good. Thanks for answering my questions and I wish you guys good luck. Thank you.

Thanks, Ed.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Amish Dayal with HC Wainwright. Your line is live.

Thank you, Graf and Eric and team. With respect to sort of the India IPO process, you know, for the India biodegradable plant, I mean, the start and stop nature of operations over there is that becoming a little bit of an overhang on the process Eric or how should we think about you know that item being checked off in 2026 or does this get pushed out to 2027?

The start stop of our operation certainly has an impact no question at all about that but having a equal if maybe even a stronger impact is the global increase in the price of crude oil as a result of the Iranian war and the politics between the US and India in which the US now kind of controls India's purchases from Russia of crude oil. That has caused the India domestic diesel price to be increased multiple times in the last few months. And so the external drivers in favor of biodiesel adoption are very positive. What's having a bigger impact on our business than what the OMCs this month or next month are ordering as much as they could is just the impact of the higher energy prices for both liquefied natural gas as well as for liquid fuels resulting from the Iranian war on the overall stock market. The overall stock market in India in the first three quarters of the year had some trouble. People expected that higher energy prices would hit earnings. There's been a bit of a recovery in the last month or so, and we've seen some IPOs that have now gone through, but there was a bottleneck in the IPO pipeline because of the overall market price decrease that happened in the first few months or actually two quarters of 2026. That is what's directly impacting our timing. And as we talk about the IPO in India, we talk about market conditions. That's really the IPO market conditions that we're talking about. They're getting IPOs done now, but there was and is a pipeline of IPOs in process in India. We are very well positioned for growth in India as well as diversification. We have talked about additional biodiesel sites that's actively in process. Our strategy is to place our biodiesel plants close to sources of supply. We are the largest biodiesel producer in the country. We intend to stay that way. And we're working on diversification. Our diversification is into what they call compressed biogas, but we call it renewable natural gas. as well as into sustainable evasion fuel. So we're executing on our plan. We have increasing confidence that the IPO market is showing some robustness and we have engaged outside lawyers, accountants, IPO managers. We have a new CFO that joined us last year. We have a new CEO that joined us a while ago. We have an IPO in process in India. and subject to market conditions, it'll happen as soon as the market's available for us to be the next one in line.

Understood, Eric. Thank you for that. You also mentioned some of that capacity is going to private parties, not the oil marketing companies. Is this sort of a new development or have you always been supplying some of that capacity to private players over there?

It's a very good question. It is a new development. It is a very large market. The price of diesel in India has been controlled by the government. It's a part of their policy. And with the inability for Russia to supply cheap crude oil into India, the India government's been forced to push up the price of diesel several times. in the last few months. As a result, commercial customers can buy from us at attractive prices that are a discount of 3% to 5% below what they have to pay for diesel at the pump. They also get some other benefits like lower particulate emissions and some other indirect benefits. But a savings of up to 5% on fuel is certainly material. So we have large commercial customers that We are either already shipping or expanding our relationship with. That could be very significant volumes for us.

Understood. This last one from me. Are you comfortable with your liquidity position? You know, right now, the balance sheet seems to have, you know, quite a bit of current debt. So just wondering, you know, how you are planning to sort of address that part of the story?

We have had a very positive and productive working relationship with our private credit provider, Third Eye Capital, since 2018. And just within the last couple months had a visit by all the principals in the firm and a very productive multi-day project tour and update. And we are looking forward to a continued, very successful relationship with Third Eye Capital. I should note that about $120 million of our funding with ThirdEye is an effective interest rate of about 5% and we have some more expensive debt with them as well. But our goal is to continue pay downs as we do these catch ups on 45Z and other events or very large cash events that should be happening later on this year and that we can refinance the balance of those amounts all to longer term and lower interest rates.

Thank you, Eric. That's all I have appreciated.

Thanks, Ahmed.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Dave Storms with StoneGaze. Your line is live.

Hello, and thank you for taking my questions. Just me, I want to start with the gross margin profile, expecting that you'll be entering 2027 with an even stronger profile following the MVR coming online. As we're thinking through the impact of that, Do you think there will be more leverage to the gross margin on the revenue gains from the NVR coming online or the cost takeouts that are also associated with that?

Very good question. About $8 million of the $32 million, so approximately one quarter, comes from the petroleum natural gas cost reduction every month that we have to currently endure. So we're reducing fossil natural gas by about 80%. The 45Z and LCFS value adds up to about $24 million a year. As LCFS credits increase, the value of that 24 million increases. And so we do anticipate actually to have more than 32 million of ongoing value, especially as LCFS credits, which are currently an $80 range up from a little over 50 earlier this year. as they are expected to exceed 100 and then eventually exceed 150, that'll increasingly reward us for this energy efficiency project at the ethanol plant.

That's great, Collier. I appreciate that. Turning to your MMBTUs, back of the envelope, Matt, has your digesters running 40,000 to 50,000 MMBTUs per year, obviously with Variances based on the weather, you know when it gets colder the digesters digest less Is that maybe a fair run rate though for these two new? Digesters that are come on coming online or other other variables.

We should keep in mind The size of the dairy is the number one criteria and so we will be updating some of that information over the course of the next quarters and but dairies in general are 25 to 30,000 MBTs per year. That's what our average dairy generation is. And these dairies are approximately average dairy size.

That's perfect. Thank you for taking my questions and go up on the next quarter. Thank you, Dave.

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session, so I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. McAfee for any closing remarks.

Thank you to AMETIS stockholders, analysts, and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at AMETIS. Todd?

Thank you for attending today's AMETIS earnings conference call. A written and audio version of this earnings review will be posted to the investor section of the AMETIS website.

Oleg? Thank you. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's call and you may disconnect your lines at this time. And we thank you for your participation.