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Arhaus, Inc.
8/9/2023
Good morning and welcome to the Our House second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal remarks. Please note that this conference is being recorded and the reproduction of any part of this call is not permitted without written authorization from the company. I will now turn the call over to your host, Wendy Watson, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.
Good morning. Good morning. And thank you for joining our house's second quarter 2023 earnings call. On with me today are John Reed, co-founder, chairman, and chief executive officer, Jim Porter, chief marketing and e-commerce officer, and Don Phillipson, chief financial officer. John will start with a summary of the main points we made in this morning's press release, along with operational details. Jen will discuss Rooted, our most recent marketing campaign, and Don will cover our financial performance and outlook for the remainder of 2023. After these prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. During Q&A, please limit to one question and one follow-up. If you have additional questions, please return to the queue. We issued our earnings press release and our 10Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2023, before market opened today. Those documents are available on our investor relations website at ir.ourhouse.com. A replay of the call will be available on our website within 24 hours. As a reminder, remarks today concerning future expectations, events, objectives, strategies, trends, or results constitute forward-looking statements. Actual results or events may differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties. For a summary of these risk factors and additional information, please refer to this morning's press release and the cautionary statements and risk factors described in our annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent 10-Qs, as such factors may be updated from time to time in our filings with the SEC. The forward-looking statements are made as of today's date, and except as may be required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise these statements. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, and this morning's press release includes the relevant non-GAAP reconciliations. I will now turn the call over to John.
Thank you, Wendy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. It was another great quarter for our house, and our business continues to be incredibly resilient. We continue to win with our clients, and in the second quarter, we again saw exceptional demand comp growth. It is notable that the 11.6% demand comp stacks on a 22.5% demand comp in the second quarter last year. In terms of cadence, we started the quarter in April with a flat demand comp, which accelerated with May and June up mid-teens to low 20s. We are seeing strength in all categories and in all regions. We also have a strong start to the third quarter, with demand comp growth in July up high single digits. Turning to highlights for the second quarter, while continuing to execute our strategic initiatives and growth plan for the year, we delivered net revenue of $313 million, net and comprehensive income of $40 million with a margin of 12.8%, and adjusted EBITDA of $64 million with a margin of 20.4%. Note that revenue was below our expectations for the quarter, impacted by delivery delays, primarily focused on these three factors. First, slower deliveries out of the Dallas distribution center as we continue to optimize product assortment across the three distribution centers. Second, a temporary reduction in productivity as we implemented various new systems, including a new warehouse management system to drive future efficient growth. And third, some clients are also asking us to delay deliveries as they complete home-related projects. As we have gone from one distribution center to three in the past two years, it is critical that we continue to implement the system capabilities, processes, and talents to enable us to move product through our supply chain more efficiently as we scale for growth. Some of the factors that slowed revenue in the second quarter will continue into the second half of this year, And as a result, some of that net revenue originally expected in 2023 will be pushed to 2024. This is offset by our stronger than anticipated demand growth. As a result, midpoint for our year, net revenue outlook is unchanged. Don will discuss in more detail this later. Moving to profitability, we saw a nice earnings benefit from the impact of lower freight costs to our gross margin in the second quarter. This benefit is enabling us to pass through some of the lower pricing to our clients with a particular focus on ensuring we remain top of mind competitively. It is also allowing us to optimize our assortment as we make way for new product launches in the fall and address areas where we need less inventory on hand. Additionally, with our stronger earnings in the second quarter, we are raising our full-year net income and adjusted EBITDA outlook. Turning to an update on our showroom growth for the year, we are successfully scaling our showroom footprint along with executing our renovation, relocations, and expansion projects. To date, we have opened five new showrooms in 2023, two new design studios, Asheville, North Carolina, and Naperville, Illinois's, two traditional showrooms, Topanga, California, Peabody, Massachusetts, and a new outlet location in Dallas. We are very pleased with the strong performance of our new showrooms and proud of how they showcase our incredible product. For the balance of the year, we expect to open six additional traditional format showrooms, a West Hartford, Connecticut location in the third quarter, and five new showrooms in the fourth quarter, Coral Gables, Florida, Huntington Station, New York, and three new showrooms in California. An additional planned California showroom opening has been pushed to 2024. Our renovation, relocation, and expansion projects are all proceeding as expected. I encourage all of you to visit one of our showrooms and see the experience our product for yourselves. We also continue to grow our in-home designer program. We are focused on the growth of this program as the average order value we enjoy from our in-home designer assisted sale is four times our company average order value. I founded our house more than 35 years ago with the objective to source wood sustainably and to create an heirloom quality furniture. but to hope that it will be passed down from generations to generations and not end up in landfills. I've always been passionate about preserving our planet. And now, more than ever, we must do our part to help slow down global warming. I am proud tonight to announce a $10 million commitment to the Nature Conservancy to support their efforts to protect the critical rainforest in Borneo, Indonesia. Our donation will directly support the Nature Conservancy and their local Indonesian affiliate, WICAN, as they embark on an ambitious project to pilot solutions to drive more attractive and self-sustaining economics in forestry. We are proud to support these efforts, and we hope others will join us. We know that the environment is critical to our business, our employees, and our clients, and certainly the planet. and we know that we must take bold action now. We look forward to sharing this incredible journey with you, and we are confident that together we'll make a difference. Finally, I want to thank my team for their continued focus on providing an incredible product assortment, an amazing omni-channel experience, and client-first service, as well as executing our showroom openings and enhancing strategic systems that will allow us to scale for long-term growth and success. It is their execution that makes me confident in our ability to capitalize on the significant opportunities ahead of us. Now I'll turn it over to Jen to discuss Rooted, our latest campaign marketing campaign.
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to take a moment today to celebrate our latest campaign, Rooted, which launched yesterday across our channels. Last year, we sent a team of writers, videographers, and photographers to Mexico. The goal of our trip was unique, to visit artist and longtime Our House partner, Javier, and to capture the magic happening in his workshops. From the beginning of our partnership, Javier's handcrafted furniture has been different, distinctive. Working only with salvaged and sustainably sourced wood, he sees the specialness of every log and lets the organic imperfections drive his inventive designs. As our businesses have grown together over the years, so has our collaboration. Our sense of the style evolved and refined. We've developed new collections and expanded our offerings into new spaces at the home. Rooted is a truly immersive campaign that tells Avia's story, his family, his process, and his passion for the trees. It is also volume one of a story of who we are. I encourage you to visit ourhouse.com to experience the campaign for yourself. We are so proud to partner with Javier and with all of our arts and partners around the world to offer our clients the most beautiful and the most unique handcrafted furniture collections. We hope you enjoy the stories within Rooted as much as we enjoy telling them, and we look forward to continuing to share the stories which make our house so very special. In addition to Rooted, we have some great marketing initiatives launching in Q3. Our new content experience on ourhouse.com, entitled Unabridged, launched this week. Here you will find the wonderful stories of our ARSEN partners, alongside design inspiration, partnerships, and much, much more. We will also be launching our fall campaign in just a few weeks, offering hundreds of new products and expansions of some of our best collections. We cannot wait to hear client feedback and share more updates with you on upcoming calls. For now, I'll pass over to Dawn Phillipson.
Thank you, and good morning. As John described, we are pleased with performance in the second quarter. Key items from our second quarter 2023 income statement include net revenue of $313 million, up $7 million, or 2.2%, with comp growth of negative 0.8%, and demand comp growth of 11.6% on a one-year basis and 102.3% on a four-year stacked basis. Growth margin increased 5% to $140 million in the quarter, driven by our higher net revenue and lower product costs, partially offset by higher fixed showroom costs, and higher credit card fees related to increased interest rates and demand. Gross margin as a percent of net revenue increased 140 basis points to 45%, primarily reflecting favorable product costs, partially offset by higher fixed showroom costs and credit card fees. Second quarter SG&A expense increased 4% to $86 million. The increase was primarily driven by higher corporate expenses to support the growth of our business, and higher selling expenses related to new showrooms and strong demand, partially offset by lower product storage fees as we have expanded our warehouse capacity. Second quarter 2023 net income increased 10% to $40 million. Adjusted net income in the second quarter of 2023 increased 3% to $40 million, compared to adjusted net income of $39 million in the second quarter of 2022, primarily driven by the factors just described. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter increased 5% to $64 million from $60 million in the second quarter of 2022. Second quarter 2023 net revenue of $313 million and adjusted EBITDA of $64 million resulted in a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter, an increase of 70 basis points year over year. Let me now move to our outlook and how we were thinking about the second half of this year. As the midpoint of our narrowed net revenue range implies, we expect second-half net revenue to be down mid-single digits versus the second half of 2022, with the higher-than-anticipated demand comp growth we are experiencing offset by the factors John described earlier that affected our Q2 net revenue growth. We expect to see demand comps increase in a low-to-mid single-digit range in the second half of the year. On the profitability side, the freight benefits we are realizing enable us to increase our full year net income and adjusted EBITDA guidance, while also funding the pricing adjustments John described and our $10 million donation to the Nature Conservancy. We expect adjusted EBITDA margin to be down approximately 750 to 850 basis points in the second half of 2023 versus the second half of 2022. Due to reduced leverage as compared to the second half of 2022 when we benefited from substantial backlog deliveries, higher showroom rent impacted by both the number of new showrooms and strong revenue, higher showroom staffing, investments to enhance omnichannel and technology capabilities, including information technology and warehouse management systems infrastructure, and the previously mentioned donation to the Nature Conservancy. Accordingly, as we announced this morning, for the full year 2023, we are narrowing our net revenue outlook with our midpoint unchanged and increasing our net income and adjusted EBITDA outlook. We expect full year net revenue of $1.25 to $1.29 billion, representing growth in the range of 2% to 5%, full year comparable growth in the range of negative 2% to positive 1%, net income of $102.5 to $112.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $187.5 to $197.5 million. For all other details related to our results and our 2023 outlook, please refer to our press release. In closing, we are pleased with the first half of 2023. We believe our strong debt-free balance sheet, coupled with a strategic growth plan to build on our share gains in the highly fragmented $100 billion premium home furniture market, position us to weather any economic cycle and emerge in an even stronger position poised to deliver on our longer-term growth plans and drive value for all stakeholders. Thank you for your attention, and we would now like to open the call up for questions.
Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. If at any time you wish to remove your question from the queue, please press star 2. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question is from Stephen Forbes with Guggenheim.
Hey, John, Don. This is Julio Marquez, actually, on for Stephen Forbes. Just a quick question. Given the ongoing strength and underlying demand trends, I was hoping you could give us a brief preview on your real estate plans for 2024, as well as the new product pipelines. And as a quick follow-up, how has the mix of in-stock versus special order sales evolved over the past couple of years? And what infrastructure-related investments are still outstanding over the, I guess, intermediate term to ensure the customer experience is where it needs to be? Thank you.
Hey, good morning. Good morning. Thanks for the questions. Yeah, as far as new stores go for 2024, We're on track to stay with our plan, which is, as we've been saying, five to seven stores a year. And we'll look at opportunities that may present themselves and maybe do a little more or maybe do a little less, depending on finding the right real estate and finding the right deals, of course. As far as you asked about the mix of special orders, it's right on track with what we're planning. It's been strong. It's one of our very unique parts of our house that makes us very competitive is our custom, especially in the upholstery business. Since we own our own upholstery factory, we're able to give consumers really, really great fabrics, different looks, very, very different than we see out there in the market. And we can custom order it and make it very quickly for our clients. So we're very, very happy with that part of the business. Is there a third part?
Yeah, thank you. And, yeah, just very quickly, if you can follow up with anything on infrastructure-related investments in the short to more intermediate term.
Thanks. You cut out there for a second. Was that a question about systems? Okay. So, yeah, you know, we're excited. We have a lot of opportunities to continue to enhance the systems infrastructure that we have in place. You know, as we've grown over the last several years, you know, we know that there are more efficient ways to do things. And we have a really strong management team here who's driving some change and some nice changes. is going to facilitate some nice, strong, efficient growth. So as we're thinking about the next several months, we have a warehouse management system that has been deployed in one of our distribution centers. We're working to deploy another one for our main Ohio facility here. So really excited to see how that's going to continue to progress over the next several months. And then we have several smaller ones. I know we've talked in the past about planning software programs. And then just various other projects that we're working on to continue to drive efficient growth within the organization.
Awesome. That is helpful. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Our next question is from Jonathan Matuszewski with Jefferies.
Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. The first question was just on the guidance framework for the second half. You know, historically you've suggested the bulk of your demand is driven by, you know, light home refreshes and then also more complex contractor-assisted refreshes. And a smaller piece is driven by existing home sales. So just wanted to get your underlying assumptions for those three drivers in the second half. You know, curious how you're thinking about whether those, you know, stay consistent with recent trends, improve or worsen. That's my first question. Thanks.
Hey, Jonathan, this is Wendy. Yes, I mean, those are the primary drivers. We never know exactly how they're going to play out from time to time, but our assumptions are that they will continue, you know, those same factors will continue to be the primary purchase drivers related to housing for our clients. Understanding, too, you know, we have all of this incredible product that's coming in, but I would say our assumptions in general have not changed regarding those three factors.
Okay, gotcha. And then my follow-up question is just on pricing. You know, you've done three rounds of hikes over the last couple of years. You know, relative to peers, you haven't been as aggressive. So I thought John's comments about lower supply chain costs enabling lower price points for clients was interesting. Maybe if you could just expand upon, you know, the lower price points that you're passing along to customers. that would be helpful? Is it being driven by, you know, more promotionality in the industry, competitor actions, et cetera? Thanks so much.
Sure, sure. Yeah, I mean, we've always, you know, ran our business in the belief of giving customers a great value for their money. You know, we have a little different business model than most people out there, and that is, you know, we buy direct from manufacturers we cut out all the middlemen the wholesalers the salesmen and all that kind of stuff that um that you know a lot of people build into their price so you know we we've always felt that if we can give our customers and clients um a better value if prices go down we do if the prices go up we raise prices and and you know we raise prices for for quite a while there um The better values we're getting now is really in the freight costs. It's, you know, container costs that have come way down compared to certainly a year ago, a year and a half ago. So, you know, the things that were impacted with that, we're looking at every price. If we can take them down a little bit and still withhold our margins, which obviously is number one, we'll do it. And... And, you know, if that will help our volume because prices have come down a little bit, you know, it's great. But we're doing it very selectively, and we're not trying to chase customers with lower prices or anything. And, you know, it seems to be working for us. So we're going to keep marching at that. I don't see container costs coming down more than they are now because they're very, very low. So I would think in the future, prices will be more maintained. We're not going to have to raise them or lower them. So that's kind of what the future looks like.
Jonathan, I have just a couple other points that you might find helpful. So we implemented the price actions in the mid-June, so limited impact of those in the second quarter. Overall, on the full assortment, it's about a mid-single-digit price decline, but keep in mind that most of those are temporary as we're looking to right-size the inventory assortment and you know, as we're thinking about how to make way for newness within the assortment as the newness season is coming up for us. So really excited for that. And those were the two points. So thanks, Jonathan.
Super helpful. Best of luck.
Our next question is from Simeon Goodman with Morgan Stanley.
Hey, guys. This is Jackie Sussman on for Simeon. Thanks so much for taking our question. Just on the timing of deliveries, I guess, how important is it for your business to be more consistent with that timing of deliveries? Do you think you're impacting the brand in any way? And kind of what's the path to marry up the demand and the actual comp? Thanks so much.
Sure, so for the delivered sales, like we mentioned, there have been a couple impacts in the second quarter that were impacting our ability to deliver the demand that's been written to the level that we had anticipated originally. We're working through the second half to be able to fulfill those orders based off of client timelines as well. I would say more to come on the alignment of those two. I think when you're looking at just the demand comp percentage and the comp percentage, keep in mind the base is going to be very different looking at last year. there's going to be some noise until there's a lapping of normalization. But we're working pretty diligently to get product delivered into the client's homes in the second half this year, particularly in advance of holiday season when folks really want their homes looking perfect.
And Jackie, just to fill in, you had asked if this has any impact on anything. We're selling handmade heirloom quality products and they're not, you know, this isn't a commodity. So when folks order our product and if it takes another couple weeks to get to them, it's fine. You know, we're seeing absolutely zero cancellations in product or so forth because, you know, we're delayed or something like that. And that's very important to know is, you know, our clients will wait for our product. because they know they're going to have it for many years. It's very unique. They can't find it anywhere else in the world. And they'll wait for it. You know, they may like it a couple weeks earlier, but if so be it, then they'll wait for it. And it's not a big deal for them.
Gotcha. Thanks so much. And just a quick follow-up. I guess on new store productivity, you know, can you remind us what year one productivity looks like? in new space as a percent of an average store and how are new galleries tracking on that?
Yeah, so what we said is that for traditional showrooms, we target a minimum revenue of $10 million and adjusted EBITDA contribution of 32%. We're really, you know, we feel really good about how our new showrooms are performing relative to those metrics. And, you know, they come out of the gate really strong. What we found is that we excel really well in, you know, any market that we enter. So whether it's, you know, urban, suburban, rural. whether we're in a mall or a lifestyle center or standalone. So, you know, we feel pretty strongly in not only the showroom experience, but the marketing that we put behind it when we open a new location. So really proud of how our new locations are performing to date.
Gotcha. Thanks so much.
Our next question is from Peter Benedict with Baird.
Mr. Benedict?
Sorry about that. Hey, guys. Good morning. So, Don, can you talk a little more about maybe the second half outlook? Help us understand your view on gross margin versus SG&A. Certainly it looks like gross margin will be down or SG&A is going to be up a bunch. Just trying to understand what the puts and takes are there and any kind of call out around 3Q versus 4Q just as we set the expectation for the back half. That's my first question.
Yeah, good morning, Peter. So, you know, while we don't guide to gross margin or FG&A, I'd be happy to provide some clarity on some of the components. So, you know, within the gross margin line item, we did talk a bit about, you know, freight is coming down and we're seeing that starting to roll through the P&L, so that's some nice relief there. We're offsetting that with pricing actions that we've taken for the inventory assortment. You know, other items rolling through there of particular note are the new showrooms. As we're opening six new showrooms in the back half, keep in mind that those are in more expensive locations and have rent in advance of opening. We also, you know, within a couple months prior to opening, we're starting to staff those locations as well. And there's no corresponding top line revenue impact. That's important. Now, it sets us up really well for 2024 and beyond for these new showrooms, but does have a near-term impact this year. We're also seeing a little bit of compression still in credit card fees, as you can imagine, with the interest rates where they are and with demand accelerating. That impacts those line items. Within SG&A, So staffing of the new showrooms rolls through SG&A, but we're also expecting some variable compensation increases. Keep in mind that our showrooms are commissioned based off of demand versus gap revenue, so there's a little bit of a disconnect there. So as we're working to get the delivered revenue out the door, there could be some just variances there on a percentage basis. We're also investing in systems. We've talked about the warehouse management system, the planning system. We're talking about an order management system. A lot of those, in advance of actually turning on the system, there's a lot of costs and implementation fees that go along with those. So, yeah, so, you know, I think we're investing for growth. We're excited about where these systems are going to take us over the next kind of 12, 18, 24 months and how we're going to be able to grow the business and support the growth that we've seen, but certainly come at kind of a near-term compression. And then just as we're thinking between quarters, you know, again, we don't really give quarterly guidance at this point, but I don't know, Wendy, do you have maybe any additional context?
No, I mean, other than, you know, we would hope that, you know, it's a nice split. Obviously, in the third quarter, we have our, you know, the launch of our new products and the refresh in our showrooms and, you know, the big fall marketing campaign that can give us a little bit of a lift in the fourth quarter, depending on delivery. But in general, I would think about them as, you know, fairly even.
All right, great. That's super helpful. And then, I guess the next question would just be around the COO.
Peter, what other notes? So also, you know, in STNA, we'll have the donation to TNC, and that's likely to be in the fourth quarter.
Excellent. That's really helpful, guys. Thank you. My follow-up would be on the COO departure. Can you talk a little bit more about that? Give us some context. Obviously, given your drive to become more efficient around supply chain and logistics, just what your plans are there from a management standpoint. Thank you.
Yeah, we've got a great, great team driving, you know, the back part of the business. And the COO, you know, just wasn't a great fit and, you know, to take us forward. So we're going to keep moving on. We'll figure out what our plans are for the future. But we've got a great, great team on the ground that can execute and, you know, We'll move forward with them and keep things going.
Got it. Thanks so much, guys. Good luck. Thank you.
Our next question is from Seth Sigmund with Barclays.
Hey, good morning, everyone. I wanted to follow up on the price adjustment conversation. So, you know, it's really difficult to compare Apple to Apple versus your competitors. But do you have a feel for, you know, following some of these adjustments, what the price gaps look like, and maybe just any other commentary around what's happening competitively from a price and promotional perspective? Thank you.
Yeah. So, you know, we're constantly evaluating where we're positioned within the competitive set, making sure that our value proposition is exactly where we would like it to be, making sure that we're kind of top of market with regards to that. So, you know, we feel really comfortable some of these price adjustments that we've taken that would not be temporary, that would be more permanent based on what we know today. We feel great about how those position us within the market. And I think, you know, as we're looking across the assortment, we have really unique product with really great quality. So, you know, I think we're really pleased with how we're positioned in the market, but we're constantly evaluating that as well. Jen, do you want to talk at all about the promotional cadence you've seen?
Yeah. I mean, I think to touch specifically on promotions, similarly to, as I mentioned on prior calls, we're continuing to see that heightened promotional activity. Our promo strategy remains unchanged. We continue to be really happy with it. I think the one thing to note You know, our promotional strategies. So, you know, we've always been running those promotions around those holiday weekends, those three-day weekends, and started talking towards the end of last year, right around that Black Friday time, about how we were seeing those sales periods lengthening. So I think as we are in growth mode, we do want to be top of mind and part of the consideration set for those customers who are more promotionally driven. We have lengthened some of our promotional periods. So what might have been a three to four-day promo around July 4th weekend might now be a little over a week in line with what we're seeing with trends in the market. Again, that's really, we are in growth mode. We are trying to grow our brand awareness. We know that a subset of our clients are promotionally driven, and we want to be in that consideration set when they're out there in the market and shopping. But like I said, no changes to the strategy other than that, and we continue to be really happy with the performance.
And just a reminder that those price changes went into effect in mid-June again.
Is there a specific you would point to that you guys are doing, or do you think maybe that's the most, just any more context there? Thank you.
Seth, this is Wendy. You broke up a bit. Can you repeat the question?
I'm sorry about that. So just the acceleration that you saw in the quarter, it was a pretty acceleration, I think on a one-year basis and then a multi-year basis as well. Is there anything specific or do you think maybe that's just one more?
Seth, you're still breaking up, but I think your question is about the demand acceleration in the second quarter and what we saw and how impressive it is on a multi-year basis.
Yeah, so, you know, we're continuing to execute. Go ahead, Seth.
No, sorry about that. Yeah, and if there's anything specific that you did to drive that acceleration, or do you think it's the market? Thank you.
Well, I certainly think we're driving some of that. I think there's probably a market component as well. But we're continuing to execute on the strategies that we've outlined and talked about really for the last several years. So we feel great about our showrooms, the aesthetic. Our product is really resonating. It's on point. We've continued to introduce newness throughout the last several years, which is a little bit different than perhaps some other folks in the market. So, you know, we feel great about that. You know, we certainly are constantly looking at, you know, our marketing touch points and evaluating, you know, are there different ways to engage with the clients to drive, you know, responses. So, you know, I think we're executing on what we've laid out that we'll execute and we'll continue to do that. And we're just really proud of the results and proud of our teams being able to drive the results.
Thank you. Our next question is from Mac Reglenko with TD Cowen.
Great. Thanks a lot. So first, gross margin was up nicely in the quarter, but just want to confirm that the lower prices will not result in gross margin pressure down the road. And then how much do you think the pricing impact will have on 2H and then just the elasticity that you've seen over the past handful of weeks?
Yeah, so, you know, as we've mentioned, reinvesting some of the freight savings as they're flowing through the P&L into some of these price actions that we've taken. We feel now is the right time to really evaluate, dig into our inventory assortment, and make sure that we are positioned how we want to be positioned heading into the back half of this year, into next year, and then go forward, especially as there's renewed focus on our supply chain footprint with multiple DCs. So we're spending a lot of time – reviewing and analyzing that and think it's an opportunistic time to take some pricing action to drive those units, especially given that there's the ability to do so without margin impact given the freight rolling through the P&L. We also said that this freight savings are enabling us to contribute to the Nature Conservancy, which we're really excited about and proud to partner with, so we're feeling good about that. Sorry, was there a second part of your question?
Just the elasticity that you're seeing. So how are customers reacting to the price cuts?
Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, as far as So I'll answer this maybe in a slightly different way until maybe this helps you. But, you know, the consumer response has been good. Price doesn't drive the client, however. So as we're thinking about there is a subset of the client base that will purchase. You know, maybe they were waiting for a promo. Maybe they were waiting for the next – sale over a holiday weekend. But our client wants the product that they want based on the aesthetic and based on the quality and based on their home and what fits their lifestyle. So, you know, we've seen some great response to some of those products that we're showcasing. And we're showcasing them a little bit differently as well. So it's As we're looking about driving that inventory through the supply chain to the client, it's about pricing a little bit, but it's also about how do we engage with the client and around those products as well. Things like changing how they're displayed on the website and the navigation. I think we're looking at all kinds of aspects, but the client is engaging with the product regardless of price point, which we're really excited and pleased with.
Got it. Okay. And can you remind us how much newness are you going to introduce second half of the year? And then just what you're thinking for next year as well. I know that you typically have a cadence, but just curious if you're sticking to it or if we should expect maybe any changes. And then just with that, how you're thinking about the timing of all of your, the book rollout.
Yeah, I can answer that, Mac. You know, as you know, I think our, Our demand sales are up, what, 33% over the last 24 months. Clearly, our product is resonating with our clients, and we've got great product. So during the pandemic, I had our merchants not slow down designing, developing, sampling new products. So when we came out of the pandemic, we could pull the trigger on those, and they were ready to go, and we're seeing a lot of that change. We think that is a big part of why we're doing so great. I know it is because we've got great, great products. So the future, we're staying steady. We shoot for about 20% newness a year, and we're staying steady with that point. We're looking at every single category that we carry and trying to just get better and better every day. We've got such a great merchant team, great design team, and they're very passionate and so talented that they love working on products, and so do I. And we keep coming out with better and better things that we think are cutting edge. People I know have never seen anywhere else. Take a look at this Rooted campaign that Jen just alluded to. That's one of our key partners that we did roll out some really cool new product with this fall. or rolling out right now, I should say, that we know is going to be a home run. And so, yeah, we're staying on course.
And, Max, I would also add that that newness that's coming in is coming in at really exciting margins. So, you know, we're really proud of how we're able to price those pieces in the market.
Can you maybe just elaborate on that, if you don't mind, just that last comment?
I mean, Max, you know, I think we don't want to go too much into detail, mostly for competitive reasons, right? But I can tell you that, I guess, as you're looking at the overall assortment and the pricing, yeah, we've got newness is coming in, really strong price points, really great margin. And then we have, you know, we mentioned the mid-single digit price adjustments that we've taken. I also would provide a little more clarity that in addition to most of those being temporary, that it also is contingent upon the stock levels, right? So while it's mid-single digit across the assortment, as you're thinking about, you know, maybe we have more months in supply than in some categories than others, and we've taken higher pricing on those than in others. So, you know, I think... Overall, I don't know that you can really model this out, but just know that we're focused on margin management, and we feel really good about how we're positioned with the client, but also from a P&L perspective.
Yeah, and just to add on to that, from a merchant side, we work on new product and roll out new product that's going to be profitable. I'm not interested in chasing cheaper products. let's cheapen the quality of the product so we can sell more, so we can hit a lower price point, or say we cheapen it so we can get a higher margin. That's absolutely not what we do. But we keep the quality as absolutely good as possible, great design, and then we analyze the product. We go through hundreds of products that we pass on because maybe we can't get the margin on. It's cool stuff, but we feel it's overpriced. So Anything we do roll out, you know, to Don's point, is great product at a great value. And we're getting a good margin on it because that's number one. And that's just our philosophy on how we merchandise products.
Great. Thanks a lot.
Our next question is from Jeremy Hamlin with Craig Hallam.
Thanks, and congrats on the strong results. So you guys just posted, I think, your best gross margin rate. I think that your expectations are for that to come in a bit here in the second half of the year, but just not to belabor the point here in asking more questions about the gross margin, but it seems as though you've had a step up, a sustainable step up in terms of what the long-term gross margin outlook picture is. And whether or not, I just wanted to see, clearly scale is a part of this. Maybe scale also with the vendors is playing a big part in that. But the ability to offer those You know, kind of the price adjustments, mid-single digit, it still, you know, it sounds like you're still kind of targeting a gross margin that is sustaining at a higher level than, let's say, you know, kind of a few years ago. You know, any additional comments that you can share on kind of that viewpoint and maybe the key, the biggest key drivers of that sustainability on the gross margin?
Yeah, so I think you articulated that nicely in that, you know, there's a lot of opportunity as we continue to scale the business. And what we said in the past is that, you know, we expect to grow adjusted EBITDA, but it may not be a linear path. So as you're thinking about those margin rates, we're, you know, we're investing in our showroom footprint. Those are costly in advance, you know, six to 12 months in advance of actually opening the showroom. We're also lapping, particularly in the back half of this year, in Q4 in particular, we're lapping some really strong backlog delivery last year. So keep in mind that last year we saw great leverage on those fixed expenses that we're not going to have that same benefit this year. So I think it's just important to keep in mind, you know, in 22, the backlog was about $150 million. And what we've said is that the flow-through rate on that was between 35% to 45%. So really strong flow-through on that. About $100 million in backlog delivery in 23, 24, depending on how the back half this year plays out. As you're thinking about longer term, backlog is certainly going to play a significant role in those rates, but we are positioning the company really well to continue to grow as we're investing in talent, we're investing in systems, we're investing in processes, and certainly in products as we continue to work really closely with the vendors around pricing those pieces. I think more to come on that from a larger perspective, but we're excited about where the company is heading, and we feel really good about how we're going to be able to deliver over the near and medium term.
Got it. Thanks. And then just a follow-up here on the new showroom openings here. The upcoming markets are really kind of coastal markets, slightly higher household income markets. In terms of expectations around that, you noted kind of that $10 million bogey. Are you seeing, are the expectations for the unit-level economics higher given that likely rent costs are a little bit higher in those marketplaces? Well, do you have to set that bogey even a little bit higher to get the unit-level economics you want?
Yeah, you're exactly right. So we're targeting a 32% adjusted EBITDA contribution in year three for all of our showrooms. Now, that's an average. So, you know, as we're thinking about some of these showrooms, particularly in California, you know, a California showroom, depending on the demographic, which location we're going into, is going to perform better than perhaps like an Akron Canton might in Ohio. So, you know, we're very laser focused on the financials of each location and And we're really pleased with the deals that we've been able to get and the performance that we expect and anticipate coming out of entering some of these new markets and then adding new locations within existing markets. So we're definitely focused on the financial performance of each location.
Thanks for the call. Our best wishes.
Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from Peter Keith with Piper Sandler.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Congrats on that demand acceleration. It's pretty impressive. Maybe if we just first kick it off to Jen on the Rooted campaign. I did notice that earlier this week it's a really impressive video. So maybe just give us the plan. How do you raise the awareness of that, push that out to customers to help increase that profile of the Acacias and Polanco collections? Because it does seem like it could drive quite a bit of interest.
Yeah. Good morning, Peter, and thank you. We are thrilled with the campaign. As I mentioned, it launched earlier this week and can be found on ourhouse.com, our website, in our stores. on our social media channels. We're doing some advertising out in the market to prospect for new clients who might be getting introduced to our house for the first time, working with some of our partners and influencers to get that message out as well. So we're really excited to see how this plays out. I think what is so incredible about this particular campaign is it's really – expanding on the stories and what is special about our house and what we have known since the beginning. I think one of the great things that we hear from our design consultants and interior designers is clients want to know the stories of the artisans behind the products that they are buying. They want to know where they come from, how they're made, how they're crafted, what materials are made out of, any sustainability elements to that. And so we've always loved telling these stories on a one-to-one basis in showrooms, but this is our ability to really do it, like you said, on a broader scale. We also have printed a limited edition, incredibly beautiful book that will be going out to some of our top clients, will be available in our showrooms. And it's just an absolutely stunning work of art. As I mentioned earlier on the call, we really sent some incredible artists and creators to Mexico to capture the story of some incredible artists and creators in Mexico. And it's just been a really incredible synergy of watching that all come together. And we're really excited to start seeing reactions from both our clients, from our internal employees, and then from new people who are getting to know us for the first time. I think the other two things I just want to note is, as I mentioned earlier in the call, this is volume one, so we have a lot of stories to tell, a lot of elements, a lot of partners, a lot of products that really combines to make our house incredibly special. So looking forward to continuing this campaign in the future. And then our fall campaign launches in the next few weeks, as I mentioned. The fall catalogs will be hitting homes in about two weeks here. And that is incredible. That is showcasing all of the product and the stories and the details. And so just really excited for that sort of one-two punch there of layering this additional storytelling element onto our marketing initiative.
Okay, that's great stuff. Thank you. My second question, I guess I'll ask specifically to Don. So the increase in the EBITDA guide is particularly impressive if we adjust out that $10 million charitable donation. But the midpoint of the sales guide, and there's some puts and takes, that midpoint sales guide is holding steady. So it suggests something's kind of better on the margin front than what you're expecting. Could you give us a little more color on what's playing out to help the margin EBITDA growth?
Yeah, so, you know, we've seen really nice flow through on the freight front primarily as we're thinking about gross margin. So for us, even within the organization, we have a little bit of – challenges in forecasting exactly how that freight impact is going to flow through just because it's SKU dependent. And that's really contingent upon what client is purchasing at what volume. So we've been a little conservative in how we're thinking about freight flow through in the P&L, I think. And so we saw some nice response there. Yeah. And it's enabling us to do some other things. You know, and I think we're very thoughtful about how we're continuing to invest in the organization, you know, from the talent front, especially with so much macro uncertainty. We want to make sure that we're staffed appropriately, not overstaffed. As we're thinking about investments within the business, you know, just making sure that we're being really financially prudent and thoughtful about the timing of those as well. So, yeah. I think it's some active management by our really strong management team and our fiscally-minded management team in combination with the freight flow-through.
Okay. Terrific. Thanks so much, guys.
Thank you, Peter.
Thank you, Peter.
Our next question is from Curtis Nagel with Bank of America.
Good morning. Thanks for the question. just wanted to clarify a point, uh, John, I think you made earlier in the call, um, calling out, uh, what sounds like customers asking, um, to delay as they're completing home projects. Um, just, yeah, I guess a little surprised by that. Are we worried that we might see cancellations or just, you know, what, what, what's going on there?
Um, what's going on is our, our clients are still, uh, renovating their homes and, uh, building second homes and so forth. And, um, You know, I'm not a builder, but invariably builders are delayed. Absolutely zero cancellations we're seeing on this. You know, the percentage is so small it's not even worth, you know, talking about. But, yeah, it's just, you know, the same old thing that, you know, clients are renovating. Like I said, a lot of new homes are still being built, you know, at least for our clients they are. And, yeah. You know, they may be delayed a couple months, two or three months on finishing up their home. So, obviously, they can't take the furniture until the room or home is ready. But, yeah, nothing different than has been in the future or past. Obviously, COVID, there was even more delays because even more people were building and so forth. But, no, we see it as a positive thing. It's just a timing issue. That's all it is, absolutely, just a timing issue.
Okay, sounds like that will all come through. Anything to think about in terms of carrying inventory in terms of modeling?
Sorry?
Yeah, so in terms, are you going to be holding more inventory as a result, maybe just temporarily?
When clients purchase, we get a deposit from them and we hold their inventory for them, absolutely. But we're buying inventory prudently according to our sales. We look at it skew by skew. Our concept is we try to keep inventory in stock, so if clients do want it right away, we can deliver it to them. And, you know, if they don't want it for two or three months, we'll still hold it in our warehouse for them. And we'll deliver it when they're ready. Okay. But we're not adding inventory for any reason, no. Okay.
Thanks, John. Appreciate it. Thanks, Curtis.
Our next question is from Christina Fernandez with Telsey Group.
Hi. Good morning. I wanted to ask about... the demand assumptions for the back half of the year. Dawn, you said you're assuming low single bid to mid single bid increases, which is really good in this environment, but deceleration to what you've seen in the first half and so far in July. So is it a function of the macro that's keeping you conservative? Or I guess maybe your thought process behind those assumptions relative to earlier in the year?
Yeah, you know, Christina, it's just my own personal conservative nature. So, you know, I feel, you know, we're executing. We're doing all the right things. We know that there are some things in the macro that we just can't control. So I think, you know, we're trying to be mindful about the things we can't control. We're executing on the things we can. So, you know, I don't want to get out over my skis on the financials in particular. So, you know, I think that's a reasonable assumption. And honestly, we would be thrilled with that result. So...
So that's where our heads are at. And then on the performance by channel, I was looking at your queue, and retail sales seemed like they were flat for the quarter, e-commerce up double digits. So anything to note? Are you seeing any divergence in demand trends by channel?
No. So, you know, keep in mind that those are based off of delivered sales. So just as you're thinking about, you know, sometimes e-comm has a higher UPS component than showroom sales. So it's just a timing metric, nothing to call out, nothing to be derived from that. It's just a function of timing.
And maybe one last clarification on the delivery delays you saw this quarter because of the system upgrade. John, you mentioned that that will continue through the back half. Is it going to be the same magnitude of delays or is the impact going to be less as we move through the third and fourth quarter relative to what you saw in the second quarter?
As we're moving through this year, we're learning a lot. We've had a lot of change in the last two years from a systems perspective, from a supply chain perspective, shifting from one distribution center to two. We never expected those to go smoothly, and true to form, there have been some kinks in the plan. We're learning a lot. We're figuring out how to implement and drive while continuing to execute. So, you know, I think we feel really confident in the guide that we put out there for this year, and we'll continue to drive to execute to that level, if not better. Thank you. Thanks, Christina.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question and answer session, and I would like to turn the call back to Wendy Watson for closing remarks.
Thank you, everybody, for your participation in our call and interest in our house. We look forward to speaking to you again next quarter.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.