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Arq, Inc.
11/7/2024
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our third quarter 2024 earnings results call. With me on the call today are Bob Rasmus, our chief executive officer and president, as well as Stacia Hansen, our treasurer and chief accounting officer. This conference call is being webcasted live within the investor section of our website, and a downloadable version of today's presentation is available there as well. A webcast replay will also be available on our site, and you can contact ARC's investor relations team at investors at arc.com. Let me remind you that the presentation and remarks made today include forward-looking statements as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act. These statements are based on information currently available to us and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance, and business prospects and opportunities. to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified on slide two of today's slide presentation in our Form 10Q for the quarter ended September 30th, 2024, and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Except as expressly required by the securities laws, The company undertakes no obligation to update those factors or any forward-looking statements to reflect future events, developments, or changed circumstances, or for any other reason. In addition, it is especially important to review the presentation and today's remarks in conjunction with the GAAP references in the financial statements.
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Bob. Thank you, Anthony, and thanks to everyone for joining us this morning. This was a really strong quarter. With that in mind, I'd like to start today by reflecting on our journey, where we've been, where we stand now, and where we're headed. Looking back over the past 15 months, I'm incredibly proud of our team and everything we've achieved. First, we have successfully executed a complete turnaround in the financial and operating performance of our foundational PAC business. The net result underpins our business with attractive cash flows to springboard our growth. We approach the turnaround with a nothing is sacred mantra. This strategy helped transform a consistently loss-making business into not just a profitable business today, but a sustainably profitable business over the longer term. As I've said before, our enhanced performance is not the result of any magic formula. but rather the diligent focus and thoughtful execution around the basics. I'm proud of our team for sharpening its focus on cost and embracing an every penny counts mentality. At the same time, the sales team has done a great job in fundamentally improving our contract portfolio by removing all low and negative margin agreements. As we announced this morning, sales prices for our PAC business in Q3 2024 were 15% higher than the same quarter last year. Gross margins have improved by approximately 800 basis points year over year to a very encouraging 39%. While the pace of improvements will naturally slow down from here, given the significant improvements already realized, we do continue to target and expect further benefits as we optimize all aspects of our path business. I often describe our PAC business as ARC's foundational business, given it was the foundational asset base on which we were built. But increasingly, it's also growing to reflect a business whose positive cash flows will serve as a financial foundation to help fund its own maintenance capex, as well as our growth initiatives in the quickly evolving granular activated carbon market. That brings up the second highlight I'd like to make. the strides forward we continue to make in our exciting GAC growth business. Shortly following my appointment, we offered you our commitment to drive robust contracting activity as we execute on our GAC growth initiatives. And I am excited to confirm today that we are now contracted for approximately 15 million pounds of annual GAC products, or approximately 60% of our 25 million pound nameplate capacity, clearly validating the value of our products, solution, and strategy. Moreover, we are in advanced stages of negotiations for the remaining nameplate capacity and expect to complete this by the time we achieve our full run rate of 25 million pounds, which is targeted for the end of Q1 2025. We also have identified the potential for Red River to deliver production capabilities above our nameplate capacity, and I'll have more on that shortly. Third, I'd like to highlight the progress we've made with regards to funding our exciting set of growth initiatives. We have raised approximately $44 million of total capital via strategic equity raises in May and September of this year, at a volume weighted average price of roughly $5.75. While our thinking around equity issuance has evolved alongside the market and our opportunity set, I would emphasize that the average issuance price across these two strategic offerings is more than 3.6 times higher than the day I joined. The quality and depth of our investor base has also improved significantly, alongside a nearly five-fold increase in our market capitalization to approximately $250 million today. We have also fundamentally improved the quality of our earnings stream and balance sheet. As a result, we are well positioned to execute on further expansion of our GAC capability. So, in summary, I look back on these last 15 months with great pride. We've implemented sustainable and impactful changes to our operations that have driven immediate improvements and set the stage for long-term financial success. As proud as I am of our accomplishments, and there are many, we still have the opportunity to make significant further progress. I'm excited to finish 2024 on a high note and embrace what promises to be an even more transformational year in 2025. More on that soon, but let's cover a review of our latest financial performance. This morning, we were pleased to report our financial and operating results for the third quarter of 2024. Our latest results reflect yet another strong overall quarter, further evidencing the material progress we are making across a range of business areas. The business achieved record-packed operating revenue of approximately $35 million in and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5 million. These results exceeded forecasts and demonstrate our ability to drive a more stable and resilient foundational business. Our improved results were driven by higher ASP, lower operating costs, and an improvement in volumes. This contributed to strong gross margins during the quarter of roughly 39%, up approximately 800 basis points over the same period last year. While I am very pleased with what we have achieved and our latest results, I am far from satisfied, and we will continue to challenge the status quo to drive even better performance. In light of the strong path performance, it's worth commenting on the sustainability of our path business turnaround. This is a topic that many investors raise when speaking with us. As we started 2024, approximately 26% of our PATH contracts were up for renewal. Against this backdrop and utilizing this as an opportunity for improvement, we've delivered ASP increases of 15% in the third quarter of 2024 over the prior year period and overall revenue increases of nearly $5 million or nearly 17% over the same period last year. Looking ahead to 25 and 26, we have very good visibility on PAC contract renewals, especially in the PG&I sector, and believe this extends the runway and visibility we have in our overall PAC business. This gives me tremendous confidence in the financial performance of our foundational PAC business in 2025 and beyond, and I remain confident in the sustainability of that performance in future years. Turning now to our capital position and funding initiatives, I'd like to take a moment to discuss our recent equity raise. As most of you will know, our initial financing plan for our strategic GAC expansion contemplated a term loan refinancing. During our second quarter earnings call, we discussed our progress in the refinancing, including the signing of a term sheet. However, as negotiations progressed, the terms became increasingly unfavorable. non-call provisions, or when callable at onerous levels, especially when considering the significant near-term cash flow expectations of the GAC and PAT business, high cash flow suites, a high and increasing coupon rate, the addition of warrants, and prepayment covenants that would have been highly inhibiting to our ongoing GAC expansion capabilities. At the same time, we expect to generate an even stronger cash flow stream once our first GAC line is up and running early in 2025. We have a substantial base of tax credits and NOLs, diminishing the value of the term loans interest shield. After extensive analysis and strategic discussion, we determined that issuing equity would be far more a creative option, while also providing greater balance sheet flexibility. And with our phase one GAC line up and running early next year, We expect to be well-positioned to finance a potential second granular activated carbon line as a traditional corporate cash flow credit, lowering interest costs and driving higher shareholder accretion. With this in mind, we initiated a three-day confidential marketing period, which uncovered robust institutional interest. Due to this high demand, we increased the size of the offering, reflecting investors' confidence in our growth plans. it is important to emphasize that we were not willing to sell at any price. The final offering price represented only a 9% discount relative to our closing share price prior to the start of the marketing process, demonstrating the competitive pricing of our offering. It's also worth noting that this process gave our team several important insights. We encountered strong interest from investors who were largely unfamiliar with our story, many of whom hadn't engaged with us since before I joined, and some who had never heard of us at all. I see this as a positive. It means we have a fresh audience to introduce our exciting story to in the months ahead. We were also pleased that the offering was oversubscribed by high-quality institutional investors, many of whom we believe are continuing to buy in the aftermarket. I also want to emphasize that I personally participated in this offering, further aligning my interest with those of our shareholders. Since joining last year, I have now purchased 975,000 shares with cash. These were not granted as options or similar incentives. Additionally, the majority of my compensation is equity-based, with a substantial portion having no value unless ARTS common stock maintains a price of $10 and $15 per share, without any adjustment or dilution. My interests are definitely aligned with all shareholders, so please rest assured that any decision to issue equity is made with careful consideration and only when it serves the best interests of all shareholders. We believe that this equity raise leaves us in a very robust financial position, including $57.4 million of restricted equity and unrestricted cash on the balance sheet at the quarter end. Overall, we believe our decision to complete an equity offering provided multiple benefits, including expanding our institutional investor base, enhancing the balance sheet, and improving our financial flexibility. It also positions us well to finance a potential second line at Red River with a traditional cash flow-based corporate loan once our first GAC line at Red River is operational. Our recent financing activity relates to our key growth initiative, the expansion at our Red River facility to produce granular activated carbon. I'm pleased to confirm today that this remains on budget with latest guidance and on track for first deliveries in Q1 2025. We recently disclosed that following the addition of several key hires, we made the decision to bring virtually all aspects of the construction process at Red River in-house. We have a unique and powerful opportunity to leverage our strong in-house capabilities, which we expect will reduce capital requirements and provide potential for expedited timelines. Previously, we were operating under a cost-plus contract with the general contractor. By bringing control in-house, we eliminate the fees paid to the external general contractor and regain full oversight of both the timeline and spending, driving greater efficiency and accountability. As well as now having full control of our own construction project, it's also important to highlight that the commissioning of Red River is modular, allowing each phase of the process to de-risk key elements before full completion. This approach not only helps us stay on track with our timelines, but also positions us for a smoother production ramp once the facility is fully operational. For example, with nearly 100% of our steel and concrete installed and over 95% of our equipment in place, we were already approximately 15% commissioned as of late October. This gives us confidence in two key areas. First, by addressing potential challenges in a staged manner, we can reduce the impact of any short-term issues during startup. And second, this method should enable us to reach our full run rate nameplate capacity of 25 million pounds, targeted for the first quarter of 2025 more quickly. On this point, we announced today that we have identified the potential to increase Red River's capacity by 10 to 20 percent over its 25 million pound targeted nameplate capacity with no anticipated additional capex required. We believe we could achieve this potential capacity on a run rate basis by the third quarter of 2025. Testing has shown our product significantly surpasses the required specification for most customers, although we don't expect to receive additional compensation for this outperformance. Therefore, we expect to be able to detune our product. The net result would still exceed customer requirements while potentially achieving 10% to 20% upside versus Red River's 25 million pound per year nameplate. It's important to note that this is not factored into our forecast. To repeat, just to ensure I am clear, this potential upside production capacity would would come with no anticipated additional capex required. Our focus remains firmly on the successful commissioning of Phase I, but as we stated before, our ambitions and market demands certainly extend to a second phase and beyond. As such, we are already assessing the parameters of what Phase II might look like, which is heavily dependent on two critical factors. First, we will want to be comfortable that phase one is successfully up and running at nameplate production levels of 25 million pounds or better. And second, we will want good visibility on contract demand, providing better clarity in our investment return, competitive positioning, and other factors. With strong signals on these two elements and with permitting already in place, we can certainly envision pursuing a second phase at Red River next year with groundbreaking activity as early as Q3 2025, but anticipate confirming potential timing in the first half of 2025. We'd also highlight that phase two was already permitted, and we have the potential for three further modules of 25 million pounds of GAC, which could take our combined production to approximately 125 million pounds of granular activated carbon in total. Based on the invaluable insight gained during Phase 1, we anticipate construction for Phase 2 would take 12 months or less. Assuming 25 million pounds of production capacity, CapEx requirements are likely to be roughly equivalent to the spending on our Phase 1 at approximately $3 per pound of annual production. We conservatively believe that efficiency gains are likely to be offset by possible inflationary factors. As such, a further phase reflects a highly attractive growth opportunity with equally compelling investment returns that we'd be eager to pursue as quickly as responsible. As I've mentioned before, our GAC growth potential is substantial. While the exact timeline for further expansion is not yet set, we have abundant feedstock at Corbin, permits in place, and a site ready for expansion. This positions us exceptionally well, perhaps better than any of our peers, to capitalize on what we believe will be a multi-year supply shortfall exacerbated by rapidly growing demand. With that in mind, I'd now like to provide more detail around our contracting success at Red River. As I mentioned earlier, we've made solid progress on our Phase I contract negotiations, and now have approximately 60% of our 25 million pound per year nameplate capacity contracting. Regarding pricing, I understand from the many investor calls we've had in recent months, the desire for our company to provide greater details in regards to pricing. However, virtually all of our peers are not obligated to report any metrics, and providing elaborate detail on pricing would put us at a competitive disadvantage. That said, I'm pleased to confirm that leasing contracts require strong and attractive pricing. Additionally, I would point out that there are significant differences in pricing across various industry applications. This underscores the importance of diversifying our customer base across different sectors. Given our strong contracting progress year to date, we are confident in contracting our remaining production by the time main plate capacity run rate is achieved in Q1 2025 and are in advanced negotiations to do so. However, we may ultimately determine it to be advantageous to hold back a small portion of production, approximately 3 to 5 million pounds, to pursue alternative markets with higher pricing potential, even if they require longer qualification processes. For instance, the RNG opportunity, which I detailed on the last call, differs from the PFAS customer base in that RNG customers typically prefer to sample large-scale products at their sites, meaning we need to be in production before completing final testing. Again, for clarity, we remain confident in our ability to fully contract Red River by first production. but we are likely to utilize the time between now and achieving nameplate capacity to optimize how we're contracting to maximize shareholder value. As such, we will remain focused but flexible. While I currently aim to have 100% of our product contracted by the time our 25 million pound nameplate capacity run rate is achieved in Q1 2025, if I believe in the coming months that holding back a small quantity could secure better pricing. I will pursue that course. As both a CEO and a shareholder, I believe in the importance of providing accurate guidance, but I also recognize that we shouldn't be rigid with targets. If flexibility offers a better long-term outcome, we should adapt accordingly to maximize value for shareholders. While discussing guidance and before turning things over to Stacia, I'd like to reiterate some of our key initiatives and milestones, which we target achieving by year end. First, I expect we will continue optimizing the PAC business as the entire company works to identify cost savings, while the sales team continues its steady progress in expanding into adjacent markets and securing pricing improvements. Second, with Corbin fully commissioned and awaiting Red River to follow suit, we anticipate steady state production at Corbin to begin shortly, allowing us to stockpile feedstock for use at Red River. Additionally, we will start to explore cost reduction opportunities at Corbin, which will be a key focus for 2025. Third, we will continue the modular commissioning of Red River, which is already underway. While not every milestone will be announced, we may provide an end-of-year update if appropriate, giving the market a clear sense of progress as we move into 2025. With critical elements of the build complete, advancements at Red River are significant and will accelerate through completion. And as discussed, we have identified the potential to increase Red River's 25 million nameplate capacity by 10 to 20 percent and believe we could achieve this on a run rate basis during the third quarter of 2025. And fourth, we will continue entering into new GAC contracts ahead of startup and ramp, further informing our strategy related to a potential phase two. With that in mind, I will hand over to Stacia to discuss the latest financials in greater detail.
Thanks, Bob, and thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We delivered strong financial results during the third quarter, with revenue growing 17% year-over-year to $34.8 million. This is driven largely by enhanced contract terms, including 15% growth in average selling price. This is our sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year percentage growth in ASP, and positive changes in product mix, as well as a 5% increase in consumable volumes. Our gross margin in the quarter was approximately 39%, up approximately 800 basis points versus the 31% margins reported in the prior year period. We generated positive adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5.1 million compared to an adjusted EBITDA of $800,000 in the prior year period. Net income was $1.6 million, a significant improvement versus a net loss of $2.2 million in Q3 of 2023. As I mentioned earlier, average selling price for the quarter improved 15% year over year. We continue to eliminate negative margin contracts as we focused on profitability over volumes, and as previously guided on our last call, we have reduced loss-making contracts to roughly 2% of volumes versus roughly 24% in 2022 and approximately 13% in 2023. We have now amended the sole remaining loss-making contract, which will be a net contributor in 2025. Selling general and administrative expenses totaled $8.1 million. This reflects a reduction of approximately 3% versus the prior year period, driven by a reduction in payroll and benefit expenses as well as legal and professional fees. Third quarter results included approximately $400,000 of non-recurring items related to severance and fees associated with our financing efforts. Research and development costs for the third quarter increased 23% compared to the prior year period. As in Q3 of 2024, year-over-year increases in R&D were primarily driven by conducting further product qualification testing with potential GAC adopters. Overall, and on an annualized basis, our performance demonstrates our ability to operate our PAC business in a way that contributes positively to our economic position, while further enabling us to pursue and execute on high growth and high margin opportunities with our expanding GAC business. We remain extremely confident that the PAC business will be cash generative in fiscal year 2024 and beyond. And with it, we will have a much more secure foundational business on which we can add the more rewarding GAC opportunity. In turning to the balance sheet, we ended the third quarter with total cash of $57.4 million, of which approximately $49 million is unrestricted. This change versus last quarter was driven by the net proceeds from our recent equity raise, totaling approximately $26.7 million, and partially offset by the expenditures at Red River, consuming approximately $16.5 million. Today, we are reiterating our 2024 CapEx forecast of $60 to $70 million, with $20 to $25 million expected to be spent in the fourth quarter of this year. We continue to expect to fund our CapEx needs via our existing cash, cash generation, ongoing cost reduction initiatives, and the potential prepayment on GAC contracts. On this final note, I would repeat Bob's comments that post our equity raise, we are now in a materially stronger position with regards to our discussions and possible lenders and anticipate completing some sort of ABL facility in the near term which will potentially enable us to remove both the expensive CFG term loan, which we took out as part of the historical ARC LTD transaction, as well as to smooth the working capital profile of the business as we move from first production to first sale. With that, I will turn things back to Bob.
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