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spk22: Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to AXT's third quarter 2022 financial conference call. Leading the call today is Dr. Morris Young, Chief Executive Officer, and Gary Fisher, Chief Financial Officer. My name is Andrea, and I will be your coordinator today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press R11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Leslie Green, Investor Relations for AXT. Please go ahead.
spk21: Thank you, Andrea, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, we will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future financial performance of the company, market conditions and trends, including expected growth in the markets we serve, emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates, our product mix, our ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters, to control costs and expenses, to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies, to utilize our manufacturing capacity, the growing environmental health and safety and chemical industry regulations in China, as well as global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and restrictions. We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events, are based on management's current expectations, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially. These uncertainties and risks include but are not limited to overall conditions in the market in which the company competes, global financial conditions and uncertainties, COVID-19 or outbreaks of other contagious disease, potential tariffs and trade restrictions, increased environmental regulations in China, market acceptance and demand for the company's products, the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies, and the impact of delays by our customers on the timing of sales and their products. In addition to the factors that may be discussed in this call, we refer you to the company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These are available online by link from our website and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. This conference call will be available on our website at axt.com through October 27, 2023. Also, before we begin, I want to note that shortly following the close of market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for the third quarter of 2022. This information is available on the Investor Relations portion of our website at axt.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fisher for a review of our third quarter results. Gary.
spk15: Thank you, Leslie. And good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for the third quarter of 2022 was $35.2 million. That's down from $39.5 million in the second quarter of 2022. And it's up from $34.6 million in the third quarter of 2021 from last year. To break down our Q3 22 revenue, for you by product category, indium phosphide came in at $17.7 million. The allium arsenide was $8.1 million, down from Q2 by about $4 million, and reflects the overall slowdown in the marketplace. Germanium substrates were $1.1 million. Our germanium substrate revenue was down by about $2.7 million from Q2. Part of this is the general slowdown we observed, and part is due to the payment issue we described last quarter. We expect to resolve that situation in the near future. As of today, we are not shipping to the customers in question, so. Finally, revenue from the two consolidated raw material joint venture companies in Q3 was 8.3 million. In the third quarter of 2022, revenue from Asia Pacific was 67%, Europe 14%, North America 19%. The top five customers generated approximately 41% of total revenue, and one customer was over the 10% level. Non-GAAP gross margin in the third quarter was 42.2% compared with 39.4% in Q2 of 2022 and 33.8% in Q3 of 2021. For those who prefer to track results on a GAAP basis, gross margin in the third quarter was 42.0% compared with 39.1% in Q2 and 33.3% in Q3 of last year. As you can see, we continue to execute well on gross margin Despite lower volumes in Q3, our favorable product mix, improved yields, and new Indian Phosphide recycling program all contributed to strong results. Total non-GAAP operating expense in Q3 was $9.2 million. This compares with $9.1 million in Q2 and with $7.7 in Q3 of 2021. On a GAAP basis, total operating expense in Q3 of 2022 was $10.2 million compared with $10.1 million last quarter. For comparison, total GAAP operating expense was $9.1 million in Q3 of 2021. Non-GAAP operating profit for the third quarter of 2022 was $5.6 million compared with non-GAAP operating profit in Q2 of 2022 of $6.4 million and $4.0 million in Q3 of 2021. For reference, GAAP operating profit for the third quarter of 2022 was $4.6 million compared with an operating profit of $5.3 million in Q2 of 2022 and an operating profit of $2.4 million in Q3 of 2021. Non-operating other income and expense for the third quarter of 2022 was a net gain of $2.7 million. This includes a gain of $2.0 million from the unconsolidated raw material companies. The full breakdown is in our press release. For Q3 of 2022, we had a non-GAAP net income of $6.8 million, or 16 cents per share, compared with $6.7 million, or 16 cents per share in the second quarter of 2022. Non-GAAP net income in Q3 of 2021 was $5.4 million or $0.13 per share. On a GAAP basis, net income in Q3 was $5.8 million or $0.13 per share. By comparison, net income was $5.5 million or $0.13 per share in the second quarter of 2022 and $3.8 million or $0.09 per share in Q3 of 2021. The weighted average diluted shares outstanding in Q3 was $43.0 million. Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $48.2 million as of September 30th. By comparison, at June 30th, it was $57.2 million. Depreciation and amortization in the third quarter was $2.1 million. And capital investments were $4.7 million. Most of this is facilities related. Stock comp was $1.0 million. Net inventory at September 30th was $88.5 million. 50% of the inventory is raw materials. 46% is WIP, and finished goods makes up 4%. This concludes the discussion of our quarterly financial results. Turning to our plan to list our subsidiary, Tang Mei, in China on the star market in Shanghai, let me just give you a brief update. As previously reported, our IPO application was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange in July and was then submitted to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, often we refer to that as the CSRC, in August for the next step in the review process. We have had feedback from the CSRC in the form of questions, and our advisors believe the questions were normal and customary. We hope to get CSRC approval soon, and Tang Mei still hopes to accomplish the offering as early as Q4 2022. This has been a long process, but we remain very enthusiastic and optimistic. We have posted a brief summary of the plan and the process on our website. Before I turn the call over to Morris, I want to take a moment to address the topic of export control restrictions with China since some of you have asked. We have extensively studied the new restrictions and guidance, including consultation with our legal experts. As such, we and our attorneys have concluded that the new restrictions are not applicable to our products, equipment, or manufacturing process. We do not expect to experience disruption as a result. Okay, well, with that, let me call Dr. Morris Young for a review of our business and markets. Morris has been in China and is there right now, so he got up very early in the morning, and it still is early in the morning there. Morris, go ahead.
spk07: Thank you, Gary. And, well, good afternoon, everybody. Though a softening of the microenvironment reset our growth trajectory, the trends that have driven our revenue customer application expansion remain very much intact. Despite the setbacks, Our Q3 results demonstrate several key things. First, indium phosphide is expanding and becoming an increasingly strategic material across the landscape of technology. Second, AXT has continued to make meaningful sustainable progress in driving our gross margin performance. And third, we are successfully supporting the business, technical, and quality requirements of some of the most discerning tier one companies in the world. These three factors underscore our firm confidence that our business has reached a turning point. The tide of innovation that is driving the expansion of applications for all materials we created is lifting our baseline opportunity. Even in the softer demand environment, We, more importantly, is solidly positioned as a leader. Our product quality and technical capability have created a standard of excellence that is increasingly difficult for our competitor to match, as is evidenced by our market share gain in . Our Q3 Indian phosphorus revenue grew 12% over Q2 to set a new high for quarterly revenue. This is also a 48% increase over Q3 of 2021, driving our growth with the ramp of two consumer applications that contributed meaningfully to our results and in line with our expectation coming into the quarter. As we mentioned previously, the first is a proximity sensor for audio devices, and the second is an under glass sensor for high-end handsets. We're shifting into both applications in production quality. The strong performance in consumer was offset by a weakness in power and telecommunication applications, particularly in China. The data center market was also moderately weaker than we expected going into the quarter. The majority of the revenue shortfall in Q3 came from gallium arsenide. Industrial lasers, LEDs for automotive, and wireless handset applications were all done in a meaningful way. Much of this related is to China. where customer conservatism towards future demand coupled with COVID and weather-related shutdown within the supply chain resulting in a steep drop in orders. We're confident this is not a loss in market share as we are not seeing customer canceling orders more commonly. They are delaying or placing orders on hold. In other cases, this is to get a better picture into future demand. In the other cases, it may be the result of shortage within the supply chain. We see this issue persisting through Q4, but because of the rapid decline in the second half of 2022, an improvement in the demand environment or the supply environment could result in a relatively quick recovery in FY23. This is also important to know that we continue to see a meaningful amount of development work happening for new applications in both Indian phosphorus and gallium arsenide. Customers are highly focused on new innovation. We believe that this will contribute to some exciting new use case for our substrate in the coming fiscal year, including consumer and healthcare monitoring. A bit further out, micro LED applications are growing increasingly more promising. We would not be surprised to see noticeable revenue in FY24. In terms of our own innovation, I'm pleased with the progress we are making in Bose 8-inch gallium arsenide and six inch in the phosphide material. All R&D investment allowing us to ensure that we're ready to meet the market when application for this larger diameter move closer to production. Finally, revenue from our two consolidated joint ventures were about $8.3 million in Q3. We expect the softer demand environment to bring sales down some in Q4, mostly from June-May. That is as a result of raw material prices coming down and ongoing customer conservatism. For you who makes PBN crucibles, it's likely remaining steady. In closing, despite the setback of a weaker environment, We have made enormous progress in our business, and we are well-positioned to weather the near-term stopness. Today, we are the world leader in indian phosphide, and we are the company that Tier 1 customers come to when they are bringing new innovation to market. We continue to raise the bar on our technical capability and our quality, creating clear differentiation with our competitors. Further, we have worked hard to improve our efficiency, and as a result, we are delivering solid profitability. Over the coming quarters, the environment will do what it will. And though we will diligently manage our business through it, our eyes are on the horizon because the massive trend that will continue to transform the landscape of technology are not going away. And AXT will be the leading supplier of many of these materials. I will now turn the call back to Gary for our fourth quarter guidance. Gary?
spk15: Thank you, Morris. That said, we expect Q4 revenue to be between $26 million and $29 million, which reflects our view that the inventory corrections will continue during the quarter. As such, we expect our non-GAAP net profit will be in the range of $0.03 to $0.05, and GAAP net profit will be in the range of $0.01 to $0.03. Share count will be approximately 43.0 million shares. Okay, this concludes our prepared comments. Morris and I will be glad to answer your questions now. Andrea, please go to Q&A.
spk22: Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Charles Shi with Needham & Company. Please go ahead.
spk05: Hi. Good morning, Maurice. Good afternoon, Gary, Leslie. Maybe first question, want to ask you about how to reconcile what we heard from your number one customer, the Epi House in Taiwan. That particular company recently said they are quite bullish about the 5G and fiber rollout in China next year, and they think 2023 will be a growth year for them. What is your thought on your own business going into 23? I know fourth quarter 22 seems like that the correction will continue, but into 23, are you seeing a similar trend as your number one customer and especially on the telecom and the datacom side? Thank you.
spk07: Let me take this first, Gary. Yes, Charles, I think indeed we think indium phosphide will continue to grow, although I think Q4 is taking a slight dip, I think. But I think the trend of indium phosphide growth is going to continue. And I think not only telecom, datacom is going to be growing in Q2023, but also the consumer product I think it's going to not only continue to grow, hopefully we're going to pick up one or two more new consumer product applications, which, as you know, could be quite accelerating growth because it's a new product.
spk15: Yeah, that particular company is a long-term customer of ours. you know we feel uh very strong with them uh and we we expect to continue to serve their their needs got it um so maybe the second question uh to the consumer uh business um
spk05: What's the total revenue opportunity you're seeing for the current, the one you already have, the second consumer application? What does the end customer tell you? What's the total size of the revenue opportunity through this smartphone cycle? And do you see any changes to the forecast that they provided to you over the recent weeks or months? I hear you. You said that the trend of Indian phosphate growth will continue, but it kind of makes me wonder, you did guide down your Q4 quite a lot, and I wonder whether that second consumer application has a little bit of a change in terms of how fast the ramp can be in Q4.
spk07: Yeah, I don't think there's a slowdown in the demand for the second consumer product in Q4. I believe the slight downtick in the demand are mainly from our other China customers, which unfortunately we don't know exactly what they are doing. It could be Datacom, it could be the Pons market, et cetera. but definitely this particular customer is not slowing down. In fact, if I may add, I think, you know, they are only using on the high end of the home market in their first launch this year, and hopefully later on they're going to use it in the whole spectrum of product they're offering. So we do expect perhaps you know, the demand for this product on the second product is going to go up next year.
spk05: Yeah, so maybe just to clarify, this is going to be my last question, but to clarify, you are optimistic about two more consumer applications. Does the proliferation of the indium phosphide-based sensor into the well, that's their low-end product, but in the market, it's probably considered mid to high-end. Is that accounted as a third application, or you're talking something completely different when you talk about the two more consumer applications there?
spk07: No, that's not considered a new wing. We think that's probably going to increase the demand, but we haven't talked to the customer yet in terms of how much They want us to prepare because this is still early for next year demand. But I'm talking about possibly we can pick up one or two more new consumer product applications. As you know that we have at least two products is sort of in the queue, but we're not sure, especially with the world economy shaping up like this, where are they going to introduce these new products? Thank you very much.
spk05: Thanks, Charles.
spk24: Thanks, Charles. Next question. Thank you.
spk22: Our next question is from Richard Shannon with Craig Hallam Capital Group. Please go ahead.
spk17: Well, thanks, Morris and Gary, for taking my questions. Let me ask just very specifically on the fourth quarter guidance here. You obviously talked about it being classified down a bit. The overall number here at the midpoint is down a little bit more than 20%. Can you delineate the other categories, how they're doing relative to kind of that midpoint? I'm assuming gallium arsenide and maybe raw materials are down more than average, but maybe, Gary, if you could delineate that a little more closely, that would be great, please.
spk14: Yeah.
spk13: Well, we're trying to be conservative, first of all.
spk15: Secondly, we're uncertain about when the market's going to bounce back. But I don't think anyone on this call or in the tech business thinks it's going to bounce back in Q4. So therefore, we've forecasted all of the products to be down. and a big drop in raw materials. So raw materials have been running about 8 million, and that alone will be down at least 25%. And I think it's just reflective of the overall slowdown in the markets. So as I said to our team, it's a good thing we're grownups because it is what it is. We can't change the whole marketplace. And it shifted on us, I wouldn't say overnight, but it was a very dramatic and rapid shift during the summer. And we don't know when it will bounce back. Hopefully, it'll be in Q1. But we'll have to get closer to Q1 before we'll know for sure.
spk07: Yeah. Gary, I want to add to the point is that I don't think we're losing market share. That's very important to underline. And our underlying strengths of AXT feature remain solid. You know, it's new factory, adding capacity, low EPD, and, you know, responsiveness. As you can see that in the past five, the second new consumer product, we ramped up our production very successfully. We didn't lose a stride. And I think they are really making good marks to, you know, our, you know, most demanding customers. And so we think we're stronger and better than any time in our industry. But, you know, semiconductor, unfortunately, is critical. You know, when people are worried about, you know, supply, they buy a lot. And when they say scarce or recession coming through, then everybody wants to use their inventory. I mean, the same thing for us. You see, we built some inventory. It's going to take us a quarter or two to bring it down. And then we're not going to buy from our customers. So that's the nature of the business, I would say.
spk17: That's very fair. Thanks for that commentary. My second question is on gross margins. I want to talk both about the third quarter and then kind of the view into the fourth year. So you've talked in the past about volume being a fairly important indicator of gross margins. And you obviously had a shortfall. You had your best gross margins ever. Clearly, any phosphide mixes is helping a lot. Maybe you could delineate any other drivers here in the third quarter that helped you. And are there any things that can help you or are there such as recycling or yield things that you've improved on, do those have more legs to grow on? And then as we look forward here, particularly with the much lower volumes, how do we think about gross margins here? Can we look back at quarters with similar revenue and see it in that range, or how do you help? Gary, can you help us think about where to think about gross margins to lay out in the fourth quarter?
spk15: Sure, yeah. Well, you know, For our business model, the way that the company operates, it's not usually like one single thing that makes the gross margins swing up or down. I refer to it as several small dials instead of one big dial. But clearly, product mix is a key factor. And that's one of the first things that comes to mind when we say why is gross margin improving. Another is the new India Phosphide Recycling Program, where, as we described before, we developed last year a way to reclaim certain scraps that are a result of this production process. That was in, I would call, beta test in Q4 of last year in early production level in Q1 of this year. Then I would say general production level in Q2. and um again in q3 and in fact it was q3 it was a little financially it was contributed a little bit more than it did in q2 so um so that's that's good for a gross margin it's also um good for um esg kinds of concepts that that we're learning how to to recycle some of this stuff so A third factor is that we generally had our yields improve. And in general, I think we're seeing more manufacturing efficiencies. Morris talked about our strengths. The team is really a good team. So I've used the phrase with some of you before that I think we've been going through a settling in process at the new sites. And I think we're improving in that. It's more stable, and that's helping the efficiencies and the yields. And to be straight about it for Q3, we had a quarter where a lot of the numbers seem to be pointing north, that is, in a positive direction. That doesn't happen very often, and sometimes it could be pointing south. But in this case, every number on the board was helpful. So that enabled us on a GAAP basis to be at 42%. So then Richard, secondly, what do I see going forward? I think we have some more ground to gain both on mix and on yields and on manufacturing efficiencies, all the things I just described. We have some other recycling ideas that We're not ready to share them yet, either with you guys or with our competitors. And we have, I think, some other things that we can do to keep the gross margin relatively high. Yes, it's not going to be in the 40% for Q4 because the volume is going to be lower. And I think somewhere in the 37% to 38% range is achievable. and um you know i haven't really had i haven't taken a look yet at gross margin for next year but i do i can say and i say this with confidence that um we have some some good ideas that are being implemented now and it it will help us next year so next question richard
spk17: For me, I reported a 10% customer. Is this a new customer or one you've had as a 10% in the past? It's one that we've had before.
spk15: And we expect that they could be 10% going forward. They'll continue to be strong. They are servicing the consumer application that we've touched on.
spk17: Okay. I figured that was the case. Okay, that's all for me. I'll jump on the line. Thanks. All right. Thanks, Richard. Next question.
spk22: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1-1 on your telephone. Please stand by for the next question. Our next question comes from Ahmed Corzon from BWS Financial. Please go ahead.
spk16: Hi. My first question was, how are you adjusting the business uh given you know the decline in revenue but your inventory has been increasing quite a bit now um and how are you going to adjust for that and to generate some free cash flow well um i can first of all let me assure you that uh we're very aware of what's happened to the inventory you know it evolved because we were running really hard to keep up with demand
spk15: and we're deliberately building inventory and then uh things shifted pretty dramatically so but we're very aware of it let me point out again that uh if you if in our inventory right now 50 of it is raw materials uh and 46 is whip so uh only four percent is finished goods uh i i'm not worried about having to write down the inventory or anything like that and the way we're going to have to um bring it down, which we will, is several things. Number one, I've already been communicating with my teammates in China and forming sort of a SWAT team, if you will, to monitor inventory closely. Of course, we'll stop purchasing as much because we have too much now. And I think we can bring it down over the next couple of quarters. And it will help on cash, yes. Unfortunately, I think we're mirroring what we've seen in our own customers. They're trying to manage their inventories also, so they stop buying as much. And we're actually in the same position. But we're definitely on it. We've been talking about it. It's not my first rodeo. I've been in these situations before. There's a saying that I use, if you want to change something, measure it. I'm looking at different ways to measure different things in the inventory and communicate that to the team and get everybody's attention. I feel it's an achievable goal to bring it back down.
spk16: Okay. What I'm trying to get to is also how are you adjusting to this environment because In Q2, you were doing something in the realm of 40% or 50% more in revenue per month than what you're guiding to now. So that's quite a bit of an adjustment you would have to make. Are you putting people on leave, or how are you just doing the manufacturing there?
spk14: We're not putting people on leave. We're not hiring anybody.
spk15: either, but, uh, you know, I think it would be detrimental to our, our midterm in the future if we start, you know, jettisoning employees. So, you know, we expect the market's going to come back and when it does, we're going to be ready. So, but in the meantime, we'll try and trim expenses. We'll try and improve on efficiencies. And, um, you know, we have a lot of, of dry powder of things that we can do to manage the business. So, but, you know, we've considered should we do layoffs, but at this point, no, we're not going to.
spk07: Yeah. One of the things we obviously are doing is, as you know, that during the very busy time, we were asking people to take a lot of overtime and forfeit their vacations, etc., So now we're now in a slower time. On the slower segments, such as gallium oxide and germanium, we either shift part of them to working in the phosphide, because that's still quite busy. We're still building future capacity for the expected demand increase next year. But also, we do encourage people to take their annual vacation and annual leave time as much as possible. So ready for the next, you know, run up to the high demand later.
spk16: And my last question is, how would you describe the clarity that you have in the business right now?
spk03: You mean about the marketplace in the future?
spk07: yeah i think we we are as clear as so we can um i mean we although market is down but as we said i don't think we're losing market share customers are all there in certain segments the demand is still strong but you know we're covering a lot of business for instance you know everybody I think nobody's happy to see that our guided revenue going forward is going down so much. But on the other hand, part of it could very well be the galleon price erosion. I mean, galleon price came down almost 20%, and it's still going down, maybe another 10%. And one of our joint venture, Jing Mei, who sells galleon, they buy and sell galleon. So first of all, if the galleon price is low, then their revenue comes down. So that really has nothing to do with revenue coming down so much. But we are clear, when our revenue was up, we are clear to report to everybody, hey, part of the increasing revenue is really because raw material price is going up. So this is coming down the other side. But it doesn't hurt us because we, in Jing Mei's business, we're refining it to high purity. And so it doesn't really hurt our business. And in terms of, and also add on to it is when price go down, people don't want to buy because they don't want to step into, you know, it's going down further. Why do I buy it a month later? So maybe this is working. To bring down inflation, so to speak. But as far as the rest of the factory, I think we are holding our heads up. quite a bit, and we're busy, very busy preparing for the IPO process. And also, you know, we still have a lot of R&D work. They're working very hard on doing 8-inch gallium arsenide and 6-inch in the phosphide development. And I think the team spirit is high. That I can say.
spk04: I agree. Okay. Thank you. Thanks, Hamid.
spk22: Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Richard Shannon with Craig Hallam Capital Group. Please go ahead.
spk17: Okay, guys. Thanks for getting me back in the queue here. I guess two questions. First of all, Morris, you talked about micro-LED, and you could imagine a scenario where it picks up in calendar 24. Can you give us more detail on what you're hearing and what you're engaged with in customers? And my understanding is if that picks up nicely or you green light something there, you probably have to have some more capacity. How far in advance do you need to know about this before you get your capacity in place for such a build in that year?
spk07: Yeah, I think we're increasingly more optimistic because it's shaping up nicely. I think the customers are making their commitment. And so, as you know, one of them is building a very large factory down in Malaysia. And yes, indeed, we're seeing the demand curve really start to pick up in 2024. And we're making all the preparation for it. And the rent in volume demand is gradual. I think it's going to start by several hundred wafer per month in next year. And we are already delivering some sample to our customers already. And they are evaluating the performance of it. And we expect between the two of us, I mean, our customer as us, to tweak the specification that they want. And indeed, it would take us some time to build a new factory for the capacity to deliver that expected increasing demand. So we are working on it and we expect to be able to deliver in the neighborhood of, let's see, something like 5,000 waste per month, And we were expected to further increase it to close to 10 or 12,000 wafer a month in early 2024. Okay, perfect.
spk17: And just a quick follow-up on that topic, Morris. When do you expect your 8-inch wafers to intersect with that opportunity?
spk07: What do you mean?
spk06: I mean, we're building the capacity for that 8-inch, yes.
spk11: The numbers are 8-inch wafers. Got it. Those are 8-inch wafers.
spk17: Okay. Perfect. Thank you. My second and last question here is on India Phosphide. I think you've talked about tight capacity here, and while the revenues seem to be going down a little bit in the fourth quarter, you've got some positive comments about new applications or additional volume in current applications in the consumer space. Where do you sit in terms of utilization, your capacity, and do you need to build more in the near term or next year?
spk07: Yeah, this is still fairly tight. And maybe Q4 is going to give us a little bit greater. We are still building capacity in anticipation for the volume wrap-up next year. We could be overbuilding. I mean, a lot of this build-up in capacity is in our own initiatives because we have to anticipate what customers really wanted. And they usually don't give us, I mean, most of them give us at least two e-mails, advance notice. But some of them, for instance, one of the customers, they tell us they're doing a pilot run and they expect results back in, I think last time we talked to them, it's about in six months, in the middle of next year. But whether they're going to come successfully, asking for more product or not, Obviously, we're going to be very close with them, and as time gets closer, but for us to increase in the phosphide capacity is not as easy as gallium arsenide. It's more complicated, so it takes a little bit longer time. We need about six months to get all the things together. So we are doing a little bit more in advance of the products coming in. And last year, as you know, this two product or consumer product, I think we did a very nice job in expanding our capacity, meeting all the demand from our most demanding customers. So I pat myself on the back and say, good job, Morris. Hopefully we can do the same thing for the next consumer product ramp. But, you know, right now I cannot promise you. I mean, they are not coming in with an order yet.
spk03: Next question.
spk22: I'm not showing any more questions right now. Actually, I would like to turn the call back to Dr. Morris Young for closing remarks.
spk07: Thank you, everybody, in participating in our conference call. And let me see what other conferences we'll be attending. This quarter we'll be presenting at Craig Callen's Alpha Select Conference in New York in November, on the November 17th, and we will be participating at the NEDAM Conference in New York City on January 11th. We look forward to seeing many of you there. As always, please feel free to contact me, Gary Fisher, or Leslie Green directly if you would like to set up a call. We look forward to speaking with you in the near future.
spk12: Thanks, everyone.
spk22: Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to AXT's third quarter 2022 financial conference call. Leading the call today is Dr. Morris Young, Chief Executive Officer, and Gary Fisher, Chief Financial Officer. My name is Andrea, and I will be your coordinator today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press R11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Leslie Green, Investor Relations for AXT. Please go ahead.
spk21: Thank you, Andrea, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, we will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements regarding the Among other things, the future financial performance of the company, market conditions and trends, including expected growth in the markets we serve, emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates, our product mix, our ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters, to control costs and expenses, to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies, to utilize our manufacturing capacity, the growing environmental health and safety and chemical industry regulations in China, as well as global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and restrictions. We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events, are based on management's current expectations, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially. These uncertainties and risks include but are not limited to overall conditions in the market in which the company competes, global financial conditions and uncertainties, COVID-19 or outbreaks of other contagious disease, potential tariffs and trade restrictions, increased environmental regulations in China, market acceptance and demand for the company's products, the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies, and the impact of delays by our customers on the timing of sales and their products. In addition to the factors that may be discussed in this call, we refer you to the company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These are available online by link from our website and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. This conference call will be available on our website at axt.com through October 27, 2023. Also, before we begin, I want to note that shortly following the close of market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for the third quarter of 2022. This information is available on the Investor Relations portion of our website at AXT.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fisher for a review of our third quarter results. Gary?
spk15: Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for the third quarter of 2022 was $35.2 million. That's down from $39.5 million in the second quarter of 2022. And it's up from $34.6 million in the third quarter of 2021 from last year. To break down our Q3 2022 revenue for you by product category, Indian Phosphide came in at $17.7 million. The LMR side was $8.1 million. down from Q2 by about 4 million, and reflects the overall slowdown in the marketplace. Germanium substrates were 1.1 million. Our germanium substrate revenue was down by about 2.7 million from Q2. Part of this is the general slowdown we observed, and part is due to the payment issue we described last quarter. We expect to resolve that situation in the near future. As of today, we are not shipping to the customers in question, so. Finally, revenues from the two consolidated raw material joint venture companies in Q3 was 8.3 million. In the third quarter of 2022, revenue from Asia Pacific was 67%, Europe 14%, North America 19%. The top five customers generated approximately 41% of total revenue and one customer was over the 10% level. Non-GAAP gross margin in the third quarter was 42.2% compared with 39.4% in Q2 of 2022 and 33.8% in Q3 of 2021. For those who prefer to track results on a GAAP basis, gross margin in the third quarter was 42.0%, compared with 39.1% in Q2 and 33.3% in Q3 of last year. As you can see, we continue to execute well on gross margin. Despite lower volumes in Q3, our favorable product mix, improved yields, and new Indian phosphide recycling program all contributed to strong results. Total non-GAAP operating expense in Q3 was $9.2 million. This compares with $9.1 million in Q2 and with $7.7 in Q3 of 2021. On a GAAP basis, total operating expense in Q3 of 2022 was $10.2 million compared with $10.1 million last quarter. For comparison, total GAAP operating expense was $9.1 million in Q3 of 2021. Non-GAAP operating profit for the third quarter of 2022 was $5.6 million. compared with non-GAAP operating profit in Q2 of 2022 of $6.4 million and $4.0 million in Q3 of 2021. For reference, GAAP operating profit for the third quarter of 2022 was $4.6 million compared with an operating profit of $5.3 million in Q2 of 2022 and an operating profit of $2.4 million in Q3 of 2021. Non-operating other income and expense for the third quarter of 2022 was a net gain of $2.7 million. This includes a gain of 2.0 million from the unconsolidated raw material companies. The full breakdown is in our press release. For Q3 of 2022, we had a non-GAAP net income of 6.8 million or 16 cents per share compared with 6.7 million or 16 cents per share in the second quarter of 2022. Non-GAAP net income in Q3 of 2021 was 5.4 million or 13 cents per share. On a GAAP basis, net income in Q3 was $5.8 million or $0.13 per share. By comparison, net income was $5.5 million or $0.13 per share in the second quarter of 2022 and $3.8 million or $0.09 per share in Q3 of 2021. The weighted average diluted shares outstanding in Q3 was $43.0 million. Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $48.2 million as of September 30th. By comparison, at June 30th, it was $57.2 million. Depreciation and amortization in the third quarter was $2.1 million, and capital investments were $4.7 million. Most of this is facilities related. Stock comp was $1.0 million. Net inventory at September 30th was $88.5 million. 50% of the inventory is raw materials, 46% is WIP, and finished goods makes up 4%. This concludes the discussion of our quarterly financial results. Turning to our plan to list our subsidiary, Tang Mei, in China on the star market in Shanghai, let me just give you a brief update. As previously reported, our IPO application was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange in July and was then submitted to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, often we refer to that as the CSRC, in August for the next step in the review process. We have had feedback from the CSRC in the form of questions, and our advisors believe the questions were normal and customary. We hope to get CSRC approval soon, and Tang Mei still hopes to accomplish the offering as early as Q4 2022. This has been a long process, but we remain very enthusiastic and optimistic. We have posted a brief summary of the plan and the process on our website. Before I turn the call over to Morris, I want to take a moment to address the topic of export control restrictions with China, since some of you have asked. We have extensively studied the new restrictions and guidance, including consultation with our legal experts. As such, we and our attorneys have concluded that the new restrictions are not applicable to our products, equipment, or manufacturing process. We do not expect to experience disruption as a result. Okay, well, with that, let me call Dr. Morris Young for a review of our business and markets. Morris has been in China and is there right now, so he got up very early in the morning, and it still is early in the morning there.
spk07: Morris, go ahead. Thank you, Gary. And, well, good afternoon, everybody. Though a softening of the microenvironment reset our growth trajectory, the trends that have driven our revenue customer application expansion remain very much intact. Despite this effect, our Q3 results demonstrate several key things. First, indium phosphide is expanding and becoming an increasingly strategic material across the landscape of technology. Second, AXT has continued to make meaningful sustainable progress in driving our gross margin performance. And third, we are successfully supporting the business, technical, and quality requirement of some of the most discerning tier one companies in the world. These three factors and the scores are firm confidence that our business has reached a turning point. The tide of innovation that is driving the expansion of applications for all materials we created is lifting our baseline opportunity. Even in the softer demand environment, We, more importantly, is solidly positioned as a leader. Our product quality and technical capability have created a standard of excellence that is increasingly difficult for our competitor to match, as is evidenced by our market share gain in Indium Phosphide. Our Q3 Indian phosphorus revenue grew 12% over Q2 to set a new high for quarterly revenue. This is also a 48% increase over Q3 of 2021, driving our growth with the ramp of two consumer applications that contributed meaningfully to our results and in line with our expectation coming into the quarter. As we mentioned previously, the first is the proximity sensor for audio devices, and the second is the under glass sensor for high-end handsets. We're shifting into both applications in production quality. The strong performance in consumer was offset by a weakness in power and telecommunication applications, particularly in China. The data center market was also moderately weaker than we expected going into the quarter. The majority of the revenue shortfall in Q3 came from gallium arsenide. Industrial lasers, LEDs for automotive, and wireless handset applications were all done in a meaningful way. Much of this related is to China. where customer conservatism towards future demand coupled with COVID and weather related shutdown within the supply chain resulting in a steep drop in orders. We're confident this is not a loss in market share as we are not seeing customer canceling orders. More commonly, they are delaying or placing orders on hold. In other cases, this is to get a better picture into future demand. In the other cases, it may be the result of shortage within the supply chain. We see this issue persisting through Q4, but because of the rapid decline in the second half of 2022, an improvement in the demand environment or the supply environment could result in a relatively quick recovery in FY23. This is also important to know that we continue to see a meaningful amount of development work happening for new applications in both in the phosphide and gallium arsenide. Customers are highly focused on new innovation. We believe that this will contribute to some exciting new use case for our substrate in the coming fiscal year, including consumer and healthcare monitoring. A bit further out, micro-LED applications are growing increasingly more promising. We would not be surprised to see noticeable revenue in FY24. In terms of our own innovation, I'm pleased with the progress we are making in both 8-inch gallium arsenide and six-inch in the phosphide material. All R&D investment allowing us to ensure that we're ready to meet the market when application for this larger diameter move closer to production. Finally, revenue from our two consolidated joint ventures were about $8.3 million in Q3. We expect the softer demand environment to bring sales down some in Q4, mostly from June-May. That is as a result of raw material prices coming down and ongoing customer conservatism. For you who makes PBN crucibles, it's likely remaining steady. In closing, despite the setback of a weaker environment, We have made enormous progress in our business, and we are well-positioned to weather the near-term stopness. Today, we are the world leader in indian phosphide, and we are the company that Tier 1 customers come to when they are bringing new innovation to market. We continue to raise the bar on our technical capability and our quality, creating clear differentiation with our competitors. Further, we have worked hard to improve our efficiency. And as a result, we are delivering solid profitability. Over the coming quarters, the environment will do what it will. And though we will diligently manage our business through it, our eyes are on the horizon because the massive trend that will continue to transform the landscape of technology are not going away. And AXT will be the leading supplier of many of these materials. I will now turn the call back to Gary for our fourth quarter guidance. Gary?
spk15: Thank you, Morris. That said, we expect Q4 revenue to be between $26 million and $29 million, which reflects our view that the inventory corrections will continue during the quarter. As such, we expect our non-GAAP net profit will be in the range of $0.03 to $0.05, and GAAP net profit will be in the range of $0.01 to $0.03. Share count will be approximately 43.0 million shares. Okay, this concludes our prepared comments. Morris and I will be glad to answer your questions now. Andrea, please go to Q&A.
spk22: Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 1 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Charles Shi with Niedemann Company. Please go ahead.
spk05: Hi. Good morning, Maurice. Good afternoon, Gary, Leslie. Maybe first question, want to ask you about how to reconcile what we heard from your number one customer, the Epi House in Taiwan. That particular company recently said they are quite bullish about the 5G and fiber rollout in China next year, and they think 2023 will be a growth year for them. What is your thought on your own business going into 23? I know fourth quarter 22 seems like that the correction will continue, but into 23, are you seeing a similar trend as your number one customer and especially on the telecom and the datacom side? Thank you.
spk07: Let me take this first, Gary. Yes, Charles. I think, indeed, we think indium phosphide will continue to grow, although I think Q4 is taking a slight dip, I think. But I think the trend of indium phosphide growth is going to continue. And I think not only telecom, datacom is going to be growing in Q2023, but also the consumer product I think it's going to not only continue to grow, hopefully we're going to pick up one or two more new consumer product applications, which, as you know, could be quite accelerating growth because it's a new product.
spk15: Yeah, that particular company is a long-term customer of ours. You know, we feel very strong with them, and we expect to continue to serve their needs.
spk05: Got it. So, maybe the second question to the consumer business. What's the total revenue opportunity you're seeing for the current, the one you already have, the second consumer application? What does the end customer tell you? What's the total size of the revenue opportunity through this smartphone cycle? And do you see any changes to the forecast that they provided to you over the recent weeks or months? I hear you. You said that the trend of Indian phosphate growth will continue, but it kind of makes me wonder, you did guide down your Q4 quite a lot, and I wonder whether that second consumer application has a little bit of a change in terms of how fast the ramp can be in Q4.
spk07: Yeah, I don't think there's a slowdown in the demand for the second consumer product in Q4. I believe the slight downtick in the demand are mainly from our other China customers, which, unfortunately, we don't know exactly what they are doing. It could be Datacom. It could be the pounds market, et cetera. but definitely this particular customer is not slowing down. In fact, if I may add, I think, you know, they are only using on the high end of the home market in their first launch this year, and hopefully later on they're going to use it in the whole spectrum of product they're offering. So we do expect perhaps you know, the demand for this product on the second product is going to go up next year.
spk05: Yeah, so maybe just to clarify, this is going to be my last question, but to clarify, you are optimistic about two more consumer applications. Does the proliferation of the Indian phosphide-based sensor into the well, that's their low end product, but in the market, it's probably considered mid to high end. Is that accounted as a third application or you're talking something completely different when you talk about the two more consumer applications there?
spk07: No, that's not considered a new wing. We think that's probably going to increase the demand, but we haven't talked to the customer yet in terms of how much They want us to prepare because this is still early for next year demand. But I'm talking about possibly we can pick up one or two more new consumer product applications. As you know that we have at least two product is sort of in the queue, but we're not sure, especially with the world economy shaping up like this, where are they going to introduce this new product? Thank you very much.
spk05: Thanks, Charles.
spk24: Thanks, Charles. Next question. Thank you.
spk22: Our next question is from Richard Shannon with Craig Hallam Capital Group. Please go ahead.
spk17: Well, thanks, Morris and Gary, for taking my questions. Let me ask just very specifically on the fourth quarter guidance here. You obviously talked about it being classified down a bit. The overall number here at the midpoint is down a little bit more than 20%. Can you delineate the other categories, how they're doing relative to kind of that midpoint? I'm assuming gallium arsenide and maybe raw materials are down more than average, but maybe, Gary, if you could delineate that a little more closely, that would be great. Please.
spk14: Yeah.
spk13: Well, we're trying to be conservative, first of all.
spk15: Secondly, we're uncertain about when the market's going to bounce back. But I don't think anyone on this call or in the tech business thinks it's going to bounce back in Q4. So, therefore, we've forecasted all of the products to be down. A big and a big drop in raw materials. Raw materials have been running about 8 million, and that alone will be down at least 25%. I think it's just reflective of the overall slowdown in the markets. As I said to our team, it's a good thing we're grownups because it is what it is. We can't change the whole marketplace. And it shifted on us, I wouldn't say overnight, but it was a very dramatic and rapid shift during the summer. And we don't know when it will bounce back. Hopefully, it'll be in Q1. But we'll have to get closer to Q1 before we'll know for sure.
spk07: Yeah. Gary, I want to add to the point is that I don't think we're losing market share. That's very important to underline. And our underlying strengths of AXT feature remain solid. You know, it's new factory, adding capacity, low EPD, and, you know, responsiveness. As you can see that in the past five, the second new consumer product, we ramped up our production very successfully. We didn't lose a stride. And I think they are really making good marks to, you know, our, you know, most demanding customers. And so we think we're stronger and better than any time in our industry. But, you know, semiconductor, unfortunately, is critical. You know, when people are worried about, you know, supply, they buy a lot. And when they say scarce or recession coming through, then everybody wants to use their inventory. I mean, the same thing for us. You see, we built some inventory. It's going to take us a quarter or two to bring it down. And then we're not going to buy from our customers. So that's the nature of the business, I would say.
spk17: That's very fair. Thanks for that commentary. My second question is on gross margins. I want to talk both about the third quarter and then kind of the view into the fourth year. So you've talked in the past about volume being a fairly important indicator of gross margins. And you obviously had a shortfall. You had your best gross margins ever. Clearly, any phosphide mixes is helping a lot. Maybe you could delineate any other drivers here in the third quarter that helped you. And are there any things that can help you or are there such as recycling or yield things that you've improved on, do those have more legs to grow on? And then as we look forward here, particularly with the much lower volumes, how do we think about gross margins here? Can we look back at quarters with similar revenue and see it in that range? Or how do you help, Gary, can you help us think about where to think about gross margins to play out in the fourth quarter?
spk15: Sure, yeah. Well, you know, For our business model, the way the company operates, it's not usually like one single thing that makes the gross margins swing up or down. I refer to it as several small dials instead of one big dial, but clearly product mix is a key factor, and that's one of the first things that comes to mind when we say why is gross margin improving. Another is the new India Phosphide Recycling Program, where, as we described before, we developed last year a way to reclaim certain scraps that are a result of this production process. That was in, I would call, beta test in Q4 of last year and early production level in Q1 of this year. Then I would say general production level in Q2. and um again in q3 and in fact it was q3 it was a little financially it was contributed a little bit more than it did in q2 so um so that's that's good for a gross margin it's also um good for um esg kinds of concepts that that we're learning how to to recycle some of this stuff so A third factor is that we generally had our yields improve. And in general, I think we're seeing more manufacturing efficiencies. Morris talked about our strengths. The team is really a good team. So I've used the phrase with some of you before that I think we've been going through a settling in process at the new sites. And I think we're improving in that. It's more stable, and that's helping the efficiencies and the yields. And to be straight about it for Q3, we had a quarter where a lot of the numbers seem to be pointing north, that is, in a positive direction. That doesn't happen very often, and sometimes it could be pointing south. But in this case, every number on the board was helpful so um and that'll enable us you know on a gap basis to be at you know 42 so so then richard secondly then you know what do i see going forward um i think we have some more ground to gain on both on mix and on yields and on manufacturing efficiencies all the things i just described we have some other recycling ideas that um We're not ready to share them yet, either with you guys or with our competitors. And we have, I think, some other things that we can do to keep the gross margin relatively high. Yes, it's not going to be in the 40% for Q4 because the volume is going to be lower. And I think somewhere in the 37% to 38% range is achievable. and um you know i haven't really had i haven't taken a look yet at gross margin for next year but i do i can say and i say this with confidence that um we have some some good ideas that are being implemented now and it it will help us next year so next question richard
spk17: I reported a 10% customer. Is this a new customer or one you've had as a 10% in the past? It's one that we've had before.
spk15: And we expect that they could be 10% going forward. They'll continue to be strong. They are servicing the consumer application that we've touched on.
spk17: Okay. I figured that was the case. Okay, that's all for me. I'll jump on the line. Thanks. All right. Thanks, Richard. Next question.
spk22: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1-1 on your telephone. Please stand by for the next question. Our next question comes from Ahmed Corzon from BWS Financial. Please go ahead.
spk16: Hi. My first question was, how are you adjusting the business uh given you know the decline in revenue but your inventory has been increasing quite a bit now um and how are you going to adjust for that and to generate some free cash flow well um i can first of all let me assure you that uh we're very aware of what's happened to the inventory you know it evolved because we were running really hard to keep up with demand
spk15: and we're deliberately building inventory and then uh things shifted pretty dramatically so but we're very aware of it let me point out again that uh if you if in our inventory right now 50 of it is raw materials uh and 46 is whip so uh only four percent is finished goods uh i i'm not worried about having to write down the inventory or anything like that and the way we're going to have to um bring it down, which we will, is several things. Number one, I've already been communicating with my teammates in China and forming sort of a SWAT team, if you will, to monitor inventory closely. Of course, we'll stop purchasing as much because we have too much now. And I think we can bring it down over the next couple of quarters. uh and it will help on cash yes so um so it's you know i unfortunately i think we're mirroring what we've seen in our own customers you know they're trying to manage their inventories also so they stop buying as much and and we're we're actually in the same in the same position so uh but but we're definitely on it we've been talking about it and um you know i It's not my first rodeo. I've been in these situations before. There's a saying that I use, if you want to change something, measure it. I'm looking at different ways to measure different things in the inventory and communicate that to the team and get everybody's attention. I feel it's an achievable goal to bring it back down.
spk16: Okay. What I'm trying to get to is also how are you adjusting to this environment because In Q2, you were doing something in the realm of 40% or 50% more in revenue per month than what you're guiding to now. So that's quite a bit of an adjustment you would have to make. Are you putting people on leave, or how are you just doing the manufacturing there?
spk14: We're not putting people on leave. We're not hiring anybody.
spk15: either, but, uh, you know, I think it would be detrimental to our, our midterm in the future if we start, you know, jettisoning employees. So, you know, we expect the market's going to come back and when it does, we're going to be ready. So, but in the meantime, we'll try and trim expenses. We'll try and improve on efficiencies. And, um, you know, we have a lot of, of dry powder of things that we can do to manage the business. So, but, you know, we've considered should we do layoffs, but at this point, no, we're not going to.
spk07: Yeah. One of the things we obviously are doing is, as you know, that during the very busy time, we were asking people to take a lot of overtime and forfeit their vacations, et cetera. So now we're now in a slower time. We are on the slower segments such as gallium oxide and germanium. We either shift them, part of them, to working in the phosphide because that's still quite busy. We're still building, you know, future capacity for the expected demand increase next year. But also, we do encourage people to take their annual vacation and annual leave time. as much as possible. So ready for the next, you know, run up to the high demand later.
spk16: And my last question is how would you describe the clarity that you have in the business right now?
spk03: You mean about the marketplace in the future?
spk07: Yeah, I think we are as clear as we can. I mean, although market is down, but as we said, I don't think we're losing market share. Customers are all there in certain segments. The demand is still strong, but we're covering a lot of business. For instance, everybody, I think nobody's happy to see that our guided revenue going forward is going down so much. But on the other hand, part of it could very well be the galleon price erosion. I mean, galleon price came down almost 20%, and it's still going down, maybe another 10%. And one of our joint venture, Jing Mei, who sells galleon, they buy and sell galleon. So first of all, if the galleon price is low, then their revenue comes down. So that really has nothing to do with revenue coming down so much. But we are clear, when our revenue was up, we are clear to report to everybody, hey, part of the increasing revenue is really because raw material price is going up. So this is coming down the other side. But it doesn't hurt us, because in Jing Mei's business, we're refining it to high purity. It doesn't really hurt our business. And in terms of, and also add on to it is when price go down, people don't want to buy because they don't want to step into, you know, it's going down further. So why do I buy it a month later? So maybe this is working, you know. to bring down inflation, so to speak. But as far as the rest of the factory, I think we are holding our heads up quite a bit, and we're very busy preparing for the IPO process. And also, we still have a lot of R&D work. They're working very hard on doing 8-inch gallium arsenide and 6-inch in the phosphide development. And I think the team spirit is high. That I can say.
spk04: I agree. Okay. Thank you. Thanks, Hamid.
spk22: Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from Richard Shannon with Craig Hallam Capital Group. Please go ahead.
spk17: Okay, guys, thanks for getting me back in the queue here. I guess two questions. First of all, Morris, you talked about micro LED and you could imagine a scenario where it picks up in calendar 24. Can you give us more detail on what you're hearing and what you're engaged with customers? And my understanding is if that picks up nicely or you green light something there, you probably have to have some more capacity. How far in advance do you need to know about this before you get your capacity in place for such a build in that year?
spk07: Yeah, I think we're increasingly more optimistic because it's shaping up nicely. I think the customers are making their commitment and So as you know, one of them is building a very large factory down in Malaysia. And yes, indeed, we're seeing the demand curve really start to pick up in 2024. And we're making all the preparation for it. And the rent in volume demand is gradual. I think it's going to start by several hundred wafer per month in next year. And we are already delivering some samples to our customers already. And they are evaluating the performance of it. And we expect between the two of us, I mean, our customer as us, to tweak the specification that they want. And indeed, it would take us some time to build a new factory for the capacity to deliver that expected increasing demand so we're working on it and we expect uh you know to be able to deliver in the neighborhood of let's see something like 5 000 with four months was the middle of last year and we were expected to further increase it to close to 10 or 12 000 way for a month uh in early 2024.
spk17: Okay, perfect. And just a quick follow-up on that topic, Morris. When do you expect your 8-inch wafers to intersect with that opportunity?
spk07: What do you mean?
spk06: I mean, we're building the capacity for that age.
spk07: Yes.
spk11: The numbers for Morris are 8-inch wafers. Got it. Those are 8-inch wafers.
spk17: Okay, perfect. Thank you. My second and last question here is on India Phosphide. I think you've talked about tight capacity here, and while the revenues seem to be going down a little bit in the fourth quarter, you've got some positive comments about new applications or additional volume in current applications in the consumer space. Where do you sit in terms of utilization, your capacity, and do you need to build more in the near term or next year?
spk07: Yeah, this is still fairly tight. And maybe Q4 is going to give us a little bit greater. We are still building capacity in anticipation for the volume wrap up next year. We could be overbuilding. I mean, I'm going to say, I mean, a lot of these build up in capacity is in our own initiatives because we have to anticipate what customer really wanted. And they usually don't give us, I mean, Most of them give us at least three months advance notice, but some of them, for instance, one of the customers, they tell us they're doing a pilot run and they expect results back in, I think last time we talked to them, it's about in six months, in the middle of next year. But whether they're going to come successfully asking for more product or not, obviously we're going to very close tap with them, and as time gets closer, but for us to increase in the phosphide capacity is not as easy as gallium arsenide. It's more complicated. So it takes a little bit longer time. We need about six months to get all the things together. So we are doing a little bit more in advance of the products coming in. And last year, as you know, this to product or consumer product. I think we did a very nice job in expanding our capacity, meeting all the demand from our most demanding customers. So, I pat myself on the back and say, good job, Morris. Hopefully, it's the same thing for the next consumer product ramp. But, you know, right now, I cannot promise you. I mean, they're not coming in with an order yet.
spk03: Next question.
spk22: I'm not showing any more questions right now. Actually, I would like to turn the call back to Doctor Morris Young for closing remarks.
spk07: Thank you everybody to in participating in our conference call and let me see what are the other conferences will be attending. This quarter will be presenting at Alpha Select Conference in New York in November, on the November 17th, and we will be participating at the NEDAM Conference in New York City on January 11th. We look forward to seeing many of you there. As always, please feel free to contact me, Gary Fisher, or Leslie Green directly if you would like to set up a call. We look forward to speaking with you in the near future.
spk22: Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect.
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