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spk10: Greetings and welcome to the Blumenbrand's Fiscal First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow management's prepared remarks. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mark Graff, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Graff. You may begin your presentation.
spk14: Thank you, and good morning, everyone. With me on today's call are David Dino, our Chief Executive Officer, and Chris Meyer, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. By now, you should have access to our fiscal first quarter 2022 earnings release. It can also be found on our website at blumenbrands.com in the investor section. Throughout this conference call, we will be presenting results on an adjusted basis, an explanation of our use of non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures appear in our earnings release on our website as previously described. Before we begin formal remarks, I'd like to remind everyone that part of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements, including a discussion of recent trends. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Some of these risks are mentioned in our earnings release. Others are discussed in our SEC filings, which are available at sec.gov. During today's call, we'll provide a brief recap of our financial performance for the fiscal first quarter 2022, an overview of company highlights, and an update to 2022 guidance. Once we've completed these remarks, we'll open up the call for questions. And with that, I'd now like to turn the call over to David Dino.
spk17: Well, thank you, Mark, and welcome to everyone listening today. As noted in this morning's earnings release, adjusted Q1 2022 diluted earnings per share was $0.80 versus $0.72 in Q1 2021, up 11%. We also saw good sales growth in Q1 with positive comp sales across all concepts. This momentum is directly tied to the planning and hard work that has taken place in the company over the last few years. We prepared a comprehensive plan to build a stronger, leaner, operations-centric company. one focused on providing even better food and service to customers. It's clear our strategies are working and reaffirm our ability to deliver on key commitments and drive even more sustainable growth. These results would not have been possible without the talented and dedicated employees in our restaurants and the Restaurant Support Center. Your commitment to providing guests the highest level of service and hospitality is what makes our restaurants so successful. As we build upon the momentum from the first quarter, we remain focused on executing against the following key priorities to deliver sustainable growth. First, grow in restaurant sales by improving service levels and food offerings. The investments made over the past years to elevate the customer experience are showing up in improved social and customer scores, especially at Outback. As part of this effort, we continue to look for ways to simplify the business to improve execution and consistency. This includes rolling out several innovations, such as new cooking technology, including advanced grills and ovens to improve food quality and productivity. We also are deploying kitchen display systems for meal pacing and handheld technology for our servers. These innovations should reduce costs and further improve customer service. While all this is going on, we continue to upgrade our asset base. Investments in remiles are offering good returns, and recent relocations at Outback are providing outsized sales lifts and volumes exceeding $4.5 million. Second, grew our leading off-premises business. We capitalized on our strong carryout and delivery capabilities during the pandemic. U.S. off-premises sales were over $1 billion in fiscal 2021. Retention levels held steady with Q4 and are contributing to sales outperformance. Importantly, profit margins in this channel are comparable to margins of the in-restaurant business. This is the result of initiatives that were completed the past few quarters. We are also pursuing catering opportunities as people continue returning to offices. We offer significant values through our bundles platforms, which includes group platters for large parties and or individual boxed options. We expect off-premises to remain a large and growing part of the business going forward. Third, leverage operating margin gains by growing sales and reducing costs. This starts by growing healthy traffic across the in-restaurant and off-premises channels. We also reduced reliance on discounting and promotional LTOs and pivoted advertising spend towards more targeted, higher-return digital channels. In addition, we remain disciplined in managing the middle of the P&L and are aggressively pursuing efficiencies in food, labor, and overhead. As Chris will discuss, despite large increases in food and labor inflation, we've been able to achieve our margin objectives. And finally, become an even more digitally savvy company. In Q1, approximately 79% of total U.S. off-premises sales were through digital channels. Last year, we implemented a new online ordering system and mobile app to support our digital business. These technology initiatives are aimed at creating a frictionless customer experience while also enhancing customer engagement. Both have outperformed expectations, and the new app has over 1.8 million downloads. you can expect to see more activity as we improve the functionality and features of our app and digital offerings. These priorities will be our guide for 2022 and beyond. Because of the momentum we have in so many areas and a much stronger balance sheet, we are in a position to begin growing our restaurant base in a meaningful way once again. I will now turn the call over to Mark Graff, who has recently taken over responsibility for business development to provide additional details on our new unit plans.
spk14: Thanks, Dave. I'm excited about the opportunity to discuss our strategy to accelerate new unit development, particularly in the U.S. The improvements made over the past several years to enhance the customer experience, simplify execution, and capture the off-premise business have strengthened the economic model. In parallel, we've been patiently designing a smaller, less expensive Outback prototype that we believe will enable more meaningful restaurant growth with healthy returns. These smaller units provide fill-in opportunities in markets as we're able to pursue new trade areas. When combining the growth initiatives we see across the portfolio, we believe we can achieve 3% unit growth each year in the near term with attractive ROIs. We are prioritizing these efforts domestically with Outback. Additionally, we'll focus on Flemings and internationally with Brazil. Let me provide some more perspective on each of these opportunities. Outback is a leading brand and remains a category leader with significant opportunity for unit growth. The success of the Outback relocation program is a clear indicator of this demand and brand strength. In the past five years, we've relocated approximately 50 restaurants with sales lists of over 35% and recent average unit volumes of $4.6 million. We believe we have the opportunity to relocate an additional 100 restaurants. Recent new Outbacks are also opening above $4 million. We believe the smaller prototype asset helps us capture the opportunity in key markets in Florida, Texas, and other states in the South. This can be done one of two ways. First, by building new restaurants in rapidly growing markets, and second, by building additional restaurants in major metro areas that provide fill-in opportunities. The new design incorporates the following aspects in the restaurants. We reduced the overall size of the building by 16% to around 5,000 square feet. We accomplished this by simplifying the configuration of the restaurant. This included redesigning the back of the house and optimizing the layout of the dining room. Importantly, we did this without compromising the guest experience or the number of tables. Guests will notice a brighter ambiance, a redesigned bar, and a new decor package that contemporizes the look and feel while highlighting our Aussie heritage. Second, the new prototype integrates the new back and front of house technology enhancements. This improves speed, consistency, and execution while strengthening the personal guest experience people expect at Outback. These elements are critical to support $4 to $5 million volumes. Third, we are incorporating the current learnings from our strong off-premises business into our design. With off-premises volumes averaging approximately 30% of sales, we added space to better accommodate this important sales channel. Fourth, we're also leveraging the benefits of simplification and efficiency efforts that translated into enhanced profitability. And finally, we reduced the overall cost of the build by approximately 20%. This, combined with our enhanced profitability, provides attractive new unit level returns. We plan to open six Outbacks this year and are actively building the pipeline for expected 2023 growth, We currently have 23 sites under contract and expect to double our Outback development in 2023. At Flemings, we have the opportunity to open additional units in California, Texas, and Florida, three of our top markets. Flemings is a proven category leader and will be a source of growth for the company. Recent new unit volumes have averaged $6 million and profitability measures are among the highest in the portfolio. We are actively building the pipeline for growth and look forward to discussing this in the coming quarters. Internationally, we've always been bullish on growth, particularly in Brazil, given the strength of the market. That optimism remains today, and we've never been better positioned for expansion. Our new units continue to open well above expectations. We expect 16 new Outbacks this year and continue to build a strong pipeline for growth. The market remains underpenetrated, and the future potential of this business is tremendous. We have 126 Outbacks open today and believe we can grow to approximately 240 Outbacks over time. In addition, we'll also continue to innovate with non-traditional formats as well, such as Aussie Grill, virtual kitchens, and airport locations. While we're in the early stages, these provide incremental opportunities to reach new consumers and expand our growth pipeline. We will also leverage the learnings from the smaller prototype and apply them to the rest of the portfolio. This includes opportunistically building carrabbas and bonefish in our core geographies. This growth plan creates excitement and opportunities for our employees and company while providing outstanding returns to shareholders. And I'll now turn the call back to Dave.
spk17: Thanks, Mark, for providing an update on this critical initiative. In summary, Q1 was another terrific quarter, and this sets us up well to achieve our 2022 goals. Given the momentum we are seeing, we remain bullish on the business, and we have raised full-year guidance. And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Chris, who will provide more detail on Q1 and thoughts on 2022.
spk05: Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. I would like to start by providing a recap of our financial performance for the fiscal first quarter of 2022. Total revenues in Q1 were $1.14 billion, which was up 15.5% from 2021, driven by a 14% increase in U.S. comparable restaurant sales. Our same-store sales results consisted of a 5.6% increase in pricing, a 6.9% increase in mix, and a 1.5% increase in traffic. This increase in traffic came despite an approximate 300 basis point impact from the Omicron variant and unfavorable weather that we discussed on our last earnings call. The increase in mix was driven by two factors. First, there was significant trade in the higher priced menu items and additional sales of appetizers and beverages. In addition, in-restaurant dining carries a higher check average than off-premises dining. Off-premises was 35% of U.S. revenues in Q1 of last year and was 26% of U.S. revenues in Q1 of this year. This shift in revenue channel also helped drive menu mix higher year over year. At 26% of U.S. revenues, off-premises was flat from where it was in Q4. Importantly, the highly incremental third-party delivery business continues to grow and was 12% of U.S. revenues in Q1 versus 11% in Q4. In terms of concept performance, Outback was 29% of sales and Carrabba's was 34% of sales. Off-premises remained sticky, is a large part of our ongoing success, and will remain a key part of our growth strategy moving forward. And a final note on Q1 sales. Brazil Q1 comps were up 36%. Brazil's first quarter reflected the combination of strong execution and the lapping of COVID-related operating restrictions. As it relates to other aspects of our Q1 financial performance, GAAP diluted earnings per share for the quarter was 73 cents versus 63 cents in 2021. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was 80 cents versus 72 cents of adjusted diluted earnings per share in 2021. This performance represented a first quarter record for the company. Operating income margin was 9.4% in Q1, versus 9.2% in 2021. Our increase in same-store sales drove significant leverage on the quarter. In addition, we continue to benefit from efforts to drive efficiency into our business. These benefits helped offset what continues to be a highly inflationary environment. Commodity inflation was up 15% in Q1, and labor inflation was up 10%. As we indicated on our last earnings call, we expect both commodity and labor inflation to be higher in the first half of the year and should ease some in Q3 and Q4 of this year as we lap elevated inflation from the back half of 2021. Also, marketing expenses were up $8 million from 2021. Although we remain well below 2019 spending levels, we are reinvesting some marketing into higher ROI vehicles to both build awareness and drive frequency. In terms of our capital structure, this week we completed a transaction that allowed us to upsize our revolver capacity from $800 million to $1 billion. We can currently use this additional capacity on the revolver to retire our existing Term Loan A debt. This leverage neutral transaction has similar terms as our previous credit facility, but did allow us to convert from LIBOR to the new SOFR standard. It also provides additional liquidity and financial flexibility. In addition, we have repurchased $26 million of stock through April 27th and have $99 million remaining on our existing authorization. The board also declared a cash dividend of 14 cents. Turning to our 2022 guidance, we now expect total revenues to be between 4.35 and 4.4 billion dollars. This is up from our prior guidance of between 4.3 and 4.35 billion dollars. This is a reflection of strong Q1 sales as well as the traffic benefits of additional marketing investment. We expect EBITDA to be between 505 and 525 million dollars. This is up from our prior guidance of between $495 and $515 million. This is primarily a product of higher sales partially offset by some IT infrastructure investment we plan to make in the back half of the year. We expect a slight increase in our effective income tax rate to be between 16.5% and 17.5%. And we now expect GAAP EPS to be between $2.23 and $2.32 with adjusted EPS of between $2.45 and $2.55. This is a $0.10 increase to our previous EPS guidance ranges. Similar to EBITDA, this increase is driven primarily by our increase in sales expectations for the year. Also, as a reminder, the difference between our GAAP and adjusted EPS relates to the accounting treatment of share count from our convertible bond. We are reaffirming all other aspects of our prior guidance, including our expectations on commodity and labor inflation, as well as CapEx. Now, turning to our second quarter guidance, we expect Q2 revenues to be between $1.1 and $1.13 billion, and we expect adjusted EPS to be between 60 and 65 cents. This guidance reflects a continuation of strong performance in the U.S. and the year-over-year benefits from Brazil's recovery. In summary, this was another successful quarter for Blue & Brands, and we are well on our way to becoming a better, stronger, operations-focused company. And with that, we will open up the call for questions.
spk10: At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation cell will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary for you to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays. You may proceed with your question.
spk16: Great. Thank you very much. Two questions. One, just on the menu pricing, I think you said 5.6% in the first quarter. I'm just wondering how much you'd expect as we move through the rest of the year and maybe whether there's any concern about elevated pricing and what appears to be a slowing macro. Just wondering how you may be test to gauge and formulate so you don't take too much and negatively impact the traffic momentum that you seem to be building.
spk17: Hi, Jeff. Good morning. Yeah, we are very, very aware of our pricing actions, and we look at it competitively very closely, and we've been watching what others are doing and what our customer wants, and we believe we're at or below our competition, which is very important. So managing this margin is Calculus, along with the consumer and pricing and everything else, is what we're trying to do. Now, the good news is, too, is we have a lot of dry powder as far as how we can go to market with various programs. Our intention is not to do large-scale discounting and things like that, but we learned a lot during the pandemic about how to go to market with digital, with different offers. We invest a lot in our service and our food platforms. So that's how we can maybe address some of the potential slowing consumer, although right now we see the consumer still be pretty healthy in our space. So I'll turn it over to Chris now to talk about the price details.
spk05: Yeah, hey, good morning, Jeff. And so in terms of the go-forward thinking, right now Q2, Q3, probably a stitch higher than what we saw in Q1 simply because we did take some mid-quarter menu pricing, but definitely below 6%, I think, is the idea. So 5, 5.7, 5.8, somewhere in that range. And then I think when you get to Q4, that's when we want to just reassess because that's when you start to lap the pricing that we took in 2021. And I think we're just going to make an assessment of where the consumer is, where we are as a company, where our margins are, and then we'll make a call on what we want to do with pricing in Q4.
spk16: Understood. And then just the follow-up. Dave, when you oversee four brands in the U.S., it seems like you're reaching across the entire consumer landscape. I'm just wondering maybe you can give your sense on that. the current U.S. macro. I know you just mentioned that the consumer still seems pretty healthy, but is there any change in behavior that you see at any of your brands to demonstrate a change in the economy? Or maybe what do you look at in your business as a leading indicator, maybe what you've seen in years past to demonstrate that maybe the macro is slowing? Because obviously casual dining is more vulnerable being a higher price check. So just ask me to put on your economist hat for a second and see if there's anything you're seeing or what you'd be looking for to demonstrate a slowing macro.
spk17: Well, thanks, Jeff. And trained as an undergraduate and an economist, it's something I enjoy talking about. But we get information every day. And the consumer for us is looking good. And we feel good about where we stand. We feel good about what the current trends look like. We feel good about our channels. You know, if we look at our off-premises business and look at our in-restaurant business, as people coming back into the in-restaurant business, the off-premises business is certainly hanging in there, especially third-party. So we look at channels, we look at the health of the consumer, and then lastly, the high-end continues to do very well. You see it in the Fleming's numbers. Not only are the Fleming's numbers strong, but Fleming's is outperforming the marketplace. And then lastly, We have a large business in Brazil, and that business is doing extremely well. We talked about what the future potential looks like as far as the number of units in Brazil. We look at the marketplace, you see same-store sales growing as it is, so we have to talk about that one as well. We have four domestic brands and then our brands in Brazil. Jeff, rounding out the question, are trends continuing to be good?
spk16: When you say current trends, is that a comment related to April that I guess momentum has sustained itself and there hasn't been a slowdown of late.
spk17: Right. And you see, we're very pleased to give everybody quarterly guidance. We gave you the second quarter guidance. It's very clear. We've got the full year there, which we raised. April strands are incorporated in that guidance, and we feel good about where we stand.
spk16: Great. Thank you very much.
spk10: Our next question comes from the line of Sharon Saxia. With William Blair, you may proceed with your question.
spk09: Hi, good morning. Just a clarification on the mix. I think you mentioned that consumers on-premises are switching up to higher ticket menu items. I don't know if I understood that correctly. I understood the difference between on-prem versus off-prem and attached there, but are you seeing consumers actually spend more or trade up when they're in the box, and is it noticeable at one concept versus others? And then a question on Brazil. I may have missed this, but did you give any color on kind of how Brazil is trending so far in the second quarter, and how is the inflationary dynamic in Brazil kind of compared to what you see in the U.S.?
spk17: Sure. Let me answer the Brazil question first, and then I'll turn it over to Chris to handle the other stuff. The Brazil trends are very good in April as well, just like in the US. The inflation environment is something that that country is very used to. We are on top of pricing. We're on top of our margins. And if you look at our segment reporting, you'll see very strong results, Sharon. And so for that marketplace, we clearly have very good momentum. Before I turn over to Chris, that gives us the confidence to continue to expand the business. When we first bought this business, we talked about having potentially 100 Outbacks there someday. We now think we can have 240. And that has to do with the economics of the business, the growth of the country, the innovations we're making and how we build the box, you know, those kind of things. So that's an indication of where that country is going. And I'll turn it over to Chris to answer the other question.
spk05: Yeah. Hey, Sharon. So the mix component, we talked about mix being 7% of sales or so or 7% lift in Q1 versus last year. It's basically two components, one of which I think we would call a little surprising and one of which was not such a surprise. The piece that was not such a surprise was the fact that A larger percentage of customers returned to in-restaurant dining this year versus last year. And the fact that that in-restaurant consumer carries a higher average check relative to the off-premises consumer drove some change in mix. That was probably half of the mixed benefit. The other half was a little more surprising. And it's just, you know, consumer health appears to be pretty good. And we've seen trade-up into additional appetizer sales. additional alcoholic beverage sales, things like that, I think, carried the day on the other side of the mixed component. So it was a bit of a tale of two cities on that one.
spk17: Yeah, I just want to add one other thing, too. We're seeing the benefit of the investments we made in customer service and food over the years. And customers are noticing that, and that's what are offering some of the trade-ups for us because of the enhanced service and the food. And we're seeing it in our restaurants and our operating scores by third parties are improving nicely.
spk09: Thank you.
spk10: Our next question comes from the line of Alex Blago with Jefferies. You may proceed with your question.
spk06: Thanks. Good morning. Congrats. I had a question on the off-premise. You talked about the margins being comparable to dine-in. I don't know if that's a step up from the previous comments that it was approaching that of dine-in, but maybe you could just talk about the dynamics of what's driving the health there, whether it's the pricing or the sizable shift in digital, which was a pretty big jump. And, you know, seeing this happen even with delivery mix growing, I'm just kind of curious your analysis there.
spk05: Well, so a couple things. One, it depends on the channel when you're talking off-premises. We've talked historically that your curbside business is basically at parity from a margin profile of your in-restaurant dining experience. You know, what we lose in average check, we make up for in lower labor costs, for example, so you're able to maintain some parity there. In terms of third-party, yeah, there is a pricing component to third-party that we have that's above what we would have in restaurant. But, again, the fact that that third-party mix continues to increase in an environment where off-premises mix is shifting from curbside to in-restaurant, it just speaks, I think, loudly to the incrementality of this business and the success that we're having driving third-party through our box.
spk06: A follow up on the marketing opportunities and leveraging digital and loyalty. I mean, it feels like you've made really good headway on the digital front through the pandemic and leveraging a bunch of the investments and improvements, building out that platform and the analytics. And, you know, sort of the more efficient deployment of the marketing spend and kind of curious where you see the next phase of this going and as you have more tools and insights at your disposable, sort of what that opportunity looks like.
spk17: Yeah, the single biggest opportunity is continuing development of our various apps and our concepts. We're making great progress, and for competitive reasons, I don't want to get into it, but the consumer is noticing. If you look at the percent of occasions that people are using on our apps, you look at how people are accessing us, we're making significant progress, and That was a lot of work done over the past couple years by our IT team during the pandemic, and we're now reaping the benefits of that. For instance, if you like favorites at Outback, there's now a favorites button. Just boom, you can hit it and go with it. We're going to make that ease of ordering and the ease look just great. Secondly, we have converted to a new dime rewards program that's points-based. That will give us more opportunity to access even more customers because they have a chance to use the points more frequently, that can allow us partnerships, etc. So that's going to give us a chance for even more engagement and more consumer data, which is going to be really terrific. And then lastly, I think you're going to continue to see operations enhancements that go along with the app enhancements in the restaurants to make off-premises and ordering ahead very easy and seamless for our customer. Finally, on the marketing side, yes, we have... learned a lot about the digital opportunities with various partners, and that's primarily how we want to market now. And we know exactly, it gives us a lot of flexibility, and we know what the returns look like as we go forward, and we've been investing behind that, both from an IT capability standpoint and a marketing standpoint.
spk06: Great. Thank you very much.
spk17: You're welcome.
spk10: Our next question comes from the line of John Ivanko with J.P. Morgan. You may proceed with your question.
spk03: Hi, thank you. Just looking at the Outback $24 average ticket, there's obviously a lot of ways consumers can spend around that, higher but also lower, obviously, as well. Can you talk about, with all the new data that you have, can you talk about exactly who your customer is? Middle income, does it skew higher? Is there a sizable amount of lower income consumers that you, in particular, want to protect? to the extent that they do cut back on some of their more discretionary occasions.
spk17: Yeah, sure. A couple things on the gas check, John. Chris talked about the trade-ups. I mean, the Outback team did a really smart thing 18 months ago and changed around some of their menu items and made appetizers more accessible and things, so the attachment rates are stronger. So that's helping a lot. Secondly, we aren't discounting as much. So some of those customers, you know, have walked away. So we've got – you know, a guest check billed off of that. But we still are seeing, importantly, we are still seeing the middle-income consumer use us. That's a very important point because they have price certainty and they know what they're getting both from food and service. And as I talked about earlier, We've tried to moderate our pricing as much as possible, and as we look at competition. So we're trying to manage the check that way, the PPA that way, and like you said, there's different ways to access our company at the low end or the higher end as well.
spk03: And this might be too proprietary of a question, but if you would answer it, it'd be great. I mean, what percentage of the Outback customers are below the American household income average? I mean, just... just kind of you're picking just a number, but you can obviously say whatever you'd like.
spk17: Yeah, I think, John, we'd like to keep that to ourselves if we could, because that's pretty proprietary, and especially as we do the marketing and various things.
spk03: Okay, so I usually like to answer your questions directly, but that one I took a shot on that one. I didn't think I'd get it, but, you know, you never know. Okay, so let me switch to the technology side. I mean, and I was a few minutes late on the call, and I apologize if I missed this. KDS, handhelds, grills, where are we in terms of the supply chain? Where are we in terms of getting some of these projects implemented in the store? I guess, how excited are you that we could see some material benefit from both the customer, employees, and margins, or might there be tweaks necessary to the projects as they come in relative to expectations?
spk17: No tweaks expected, John, spot on versus the last time we talked on a call. KDS in the restaurants being rolled out as we speak. Handheld will be done in Q3. The back house equipment, specifically the clamshell grills, will be rolled out over the next few quarters, exactly like we talked about. It's on time, and we're very pleased to see that. And the other thing, John, which I think you'd appreciate, is we're putting some of these clamshell ovens in some of our highest-volume restaurants, and they are responding. We didn't want to just put it in a bunch of average restaurants. We wanted to put it in a bunch of high-volume restaurants. One is kind of down the street from you in Port Charlotte. And I just think that we are seeing some really great results. Now, I'll turn it over to Chris to talk about the financials. Let's talk about the customer. We're looking at... you know, an opportunity here to really address one of our biggest issues, which is stake accuracy on cooking. And we're seeing that improvement, and we're going to see with that will come higher guest satisfaction and higher traffic. Secondly, speed of service, throughput's, you know, really great. And lastly, with our handheld, it'll be a lot easier for our front of house employees to engage with customers. So those are the three things from the customer side. Now, I don't think we're getting into great detail on some of the financials for proprietary reasons, but I'll turn it over to Chris to talk about a few of the financial benefits we're going to see.
spk05: Well, I guess all I would add to what Dave said is the fact that when you talk about our long-term margin target of 8% operating margin, one of the key catalysts to allow us to continue to drive efficiencies in the box from a productivity standpoint is going to be the technology. So this is clearly about service, it's clearly about execution, but there is also an efficiency benefit certainly in the front of the house with the server handheld technology, but also in the back of the house in the kitchen as it relates to the grilling technology, et cetera. So, you know, again, I would just say that it's part of the calculus that when you look out longer term allows us to think more broadly about this 8% margin target.
spk17: And lastly, John, the goal here is to roll out the technology to enhance customer service. That is a big part of what we're trying to do here is enhance customer service and our food quality offerings.
spk03: That's clear. Thank you.
spk10: Our next question comes from the line of John Glass with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed with your question.
spk01: Thanks, and good morning, all. Chris, just on your comments on the second quarter, and I'm thinking about the Outback brand in particular, you have a very tough lap from the second quarter of last year. Can you conference? positively against that? I think consensus doesn't have it as positive. Is your view and your revenue guidance and earnings guidance assumed positive comps in the second quarter for the Outback brand?
spk05: Well, what I would say is, look, we're positive comps for the portfolio, absolutely, and we're striving to get positive comps across all of our restaurant brands, for sure, right? You're spot on, though, John. It's a tough last given the success that we had last year, all those thoughts are embedded in the guidance, as well as a pretty strong recovery in Brazil.
spk01: Okay, thank you. And you didn't update or change your commodity guidance. You thought it was going to be higher. Many restaurants have already updated their commodity guidance this quarter. A lot has changed since you issued your guidance last time in the commodity world. So, do you have more visibility than others, more contracting? Maybe you could talk about the contracting rate in 22. It gives you that sense that you'll see some declines in the back half and maybe anything that's going on in the beef market specifically that maybe benefits you that doesn't benefit others, for example.
spk05: Yeah, look, I don't think that anything has really changed. We're, you know, right now we're 78% locked on our, our 2022. And, you know, we're obviously pursuing, uh, spot and contract strategies for the remainder of the year. But look, I think it's pretty consistent to say that the overall landscape in commodities hasn't improved much, and there really hasn't been any sustained positive news in the commodity category, but that was all really embedded in our thinking when we gave our guidance originally. So, you know, I think that nothing's really changed on our end, but obviously it's a highly inflationary environment. Now, in terms of as you look at the year progression from an inflation standpoint, I would say it's far more a product of the fact that we're starting to lap higher commodity periods from a year ago versus any big sea change in our expectations for the commodity landscape in 2022.
spk01: And beef specifically, is there any update on what the beef market's doing?
spk05: You know, the curve of beef is somewhat representative of what you would typically see for the beef cycle at this point in time. It's just elevated at that. In other words, the curve is the same, but it's elevated from where it would be historically. But again, we're locked in, so we don't have that kind of volatility in our pricing.
spk01: Thank you.
spk10: Our next question comes from the line of Lauren Silberman with Credit Suisse. You may proceed with your question.
spk11: Hi, thanks so much. I wanted to ask about unit growth. So you talked about the 3%. Is that a net unit growth number? And then is this a 2023 goal? Yeah, good morning.
spk17: It'll be a bill. We'll provide more details on the 2023 guidance. Obviously, as CEO of the company, I'm interested to try and get to that bill as quickly as possible. But I've got to be realistic about it with working with Mark and team. But it is an expansion number total. We anticipate very few closures going forward. We'll always look at it. But the 3% is, in a sense, a gross number if any closures happen, because we've done a lot of work following our company over the years addressing our asset base. But the 3% is what we look to achieve on a gross basis.
spk11: Great. Specific to Outback is the largest state concept by units. How are you thinking about the total unit potential in the U.S.? ? And then beyond Outback and just looking at a broader portfolio, I appreciate all the color and the reduced cost, but our unit economics of the prototypes, are there any other changes you've made to the development approach, supporting confidence and the acceleration? I guess part of it is the closures, to your point.
spk17: Yeah. The big thing, frankly, is, you know, even though we were very sad to see what came out in the restaurant industry during COVID, we came out in a much stronger place. So our unit growth opportunity now is pretty good, very good. And if you look at cities like where we're really strong in the south, there's fill-in opportunities, there's new unit expansion opportunities. So we're looking at 75 to 100 new outbacks in the U.S., and hopefully as time goes by, we can continue to make progress on that. Beyond that, but we, between the smaller building prototype that Mark talked about, that's delivery and carryout enabled, And we have strongholds in really fast-growing markets in the South. We think that the Outback piece is available to us. And the economics are really much better. And our finance team, led by Chris Meyer, looks at the returns very carefully to make sure we're not making any mistakes. So we have that tool as well available to us. So 75 to 100 more restaurants. Now, let me add a couple more things real quick. We've seen a step change in crab and bonefish performance. Step change. And I think we can now look at, in our stronghold markets, selectively expanding those two markets. Those teams have done a great job addressing that marketplace. Lastly, the high end, like I talked about earlier, is extremely strong. Plemings is performing really well in that environment. We're looking to expand our Plemings business and also We're really strong in key markets in Florida, California, and Texas is upgrading our assets because we're seeing returns there as well. And finally, we talked about Brazil and what the opportunities look like there. I remind everybody that it's about a million dollars a box in cash with wonderful returns, and we think we've got expansion opportunities there as well. So that's kind of how you build up the 3%. Fantastic.
spk11: Thanks so much.
spk10: Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Farmer with Jordan Haskett. You may proceed with your question.
spk12: Thank you. Just wanted to follow up on a couple things. First would be John's commodity questions. Can you guys share your top five commodity exposures? I think you said that you're roughly 78% covered or contracted for the year, but in addition to those top five exposures, which commodities are more or less contracted as we stand right now?
spk05: Yeah, so obviously beef is the biggest. I would say from there it goes to more like seafood. There's food other, which is a potpourri of things, dairy, oil, those kind of things. And then less exposed, but still a reasonable number for chicken. The rest of it is pretty small. So I would say You know, produce as well. Yeah, so I'm sorry, I missed produce. So it's produce, dairy, oil, beef being the largest, seafood being the second largest, and then poultry would be the five. And look, I think that it's just a mixed bag in terms of what we're locked in and what we're not. Obviously, with some of those things, like produce, for example, you really don't lock in for extended periods of time. But with beef, we're fully locked on beef, and the rest of it is pretty much in the middle, so 50% locked on a lot of those categories.
spk12: All right, that's helpful. And just one other quick follow-up, which is on the off-premise business. Obviously, a lot of moving pieces with this business across both of your core concepts, Outback and Carrabba's. But I'm just looking for you to help us sort of size up the business and the opportunity so you have delivery to go, the virtual brand, meaning Tendershock, and catering, which looks like an increasing focus for the management team. I'm curious what the largest piece of off-premise is now and where you see the greatest opportunity moving forward.
spk17: Yeah, so I'll talk about the future of the business, and Chris can give some of the pieces, parts. We're going to grow this off-premise business. We piloted long ago. We started carryout long ago. We've been doing delivery for a number of years. We've got a specific management team dedicated to growing it, looking at packaging, pricing, products, all those things to make it come together. So what are we seeing, Jeff, that is pretty interesting? Carryout, like Chris talked about, is a big part of our business and has good profitability. Third party, as I mentioned earlier, continues to grow for us, and we've got great partnerships there. And then finally on the catering piece, Kravitz has led the way on that. And Outback is to follow. So we're seeing some good gains on that as well in the off-premises occasion. Clearly, of all of our concepts, Carrabba's has the food form and the capability to have the highest mix and the best growth. If those of you on the call, if you've had it, you know what I'm talking about. It really delivers well from a service and food standpoint. Over to Chris.
spk05: Well, if you go back to 2019 and you think about where our mix was of our off-premises dining, we were at, I think we finished 2019 at 12% was our total off-premises mix. And 9% of that 12% was curbside or to-go. You fast forward to where we were in Q1, for example, and your curbside and your delivery are basically at parity. And And almost all of that delivery is now third-party delivery. So I think you've just seen that fundamental shift. Like I said, I think that the third-party delivery is something that will take all day long, just given its incrementality and our ability to execute at a high level. But those have been the biggest shifts from what used to be and what is now.
spk17: And in closing, Jeff, I think what we've learned the last few years from a customer standpoint is consumers are seeing the fact that our products deliver really well. and it can be in their solution set, where in the past, maybe they thought about just other certain specific food forms. They're seeing that what we offer works really well. All right, appreciate it. Thank you.
spk10: Our next question comes from the line of Brian Vaccaro with Raymond James. You may proceed with your question.
spk08: Thanks, and good morning. I wanted to ask about the recovery in the dine-in business. I guess I'll ask about Outback, but it's really a broader category question. And I guess the quick math on Outback in Q1 is that average weekly sales for dine-in are still down somewhere in the teens, low to mid-teens versus pre-COVID. And I'd assume that's improved more recently exiting Omicron. But I'd love to get your perspective on why traffic within that category is still down as much. particularly given industry closures? And if you dig into your data, are there big regional differences you see? Are there new thoughts on how incremental off-premise might be versus the dine-in occasion? Just any insights you have there would be helpful.
spk17: Yeah, sure. We, as consumers, begin to, you know, have their habits change and come back to the dine-in occasion in restaurants. And we're going to see more and more of that, and that's an opportunity for our companies. and especially as we keep the off-premises business going. Secondly, Brian, because of Omicron, until March, we really didn't turn our in-restaurant marketing back on, and that's an opportunity for us because I've talked about that in the digital space. So you'll see more of that from our brands as we go forward. The goal is to continue to have dine-in sales come back and with off-premises staying the same. So those are two really important pieces. Then we talked about the importance of some of the investments we're making in the back of the house and the front of the house. That's going to improve traffic. The clamshell grills, the handhelds, the throughput, that's all going to improve as a result. So those are the three or four things that we see coming forward for the company in the future quarters, and we see it as an upside for us as we move forward.
spk08: But I guess if I could, how big of a range do you see across regions in terms of the magnitude of dine-in recovery you've seen. Can you give us any sense of that?
spk17: Yeah, we're still, you know, it's getting better and stronger as we look at the regional maps. Obviously, the Northeast and the upper Midwest were a little slower to come back, but they're coming back. And we've seen that in our results. And, you know, the South continues to do well. So I think as the northern environment, especially with summer coming back and everything else and outdoor dining and everything, we've got a chance now to, you know, build on this. And that could be a nice opportunity for us.
spk08: All right. Thank you. And I appreciate the Q2 guide, of course. But could you give us a sense of maybe where average weekly sales trends recovered at Outback and Carrabba's towards the end of Q1? Perhaps ballpark where you are quarter to date and also remind us just how the normal seasonality plays out moving through May and June.
spk05: Yeah, March is a really strong month for us in terms of average weekly sales. And then traditional seasonality would suggest from an average weekly sales standpoint, you do take a step down. in April, certainly in our concept. So, you know, if Outback was averaging in, call it, if I'm looking at, you know, this year Outback was averaging sort of in the low 80s, you're going to be in the, you know, mid to high 70s kind of in an April standpoint. And that's just seasonality. That has nothing to do with, you know, any kind of change in trajectory. That's just what you would typically see at this time of year.
spk08: Okay, okay. And in Brazil, obviously a strong recovery that you've seen take hold there. Were there any calendar shifts to be mindful of? I think Carnival moved around a little bit, but anything there to be mindful of or to think about what we're seeing in the numbers you just reported versus the true underlying trend?
spk17: No, the true underlying trend, Brian, is very strong.
spk02: Yeah, they're doing great.
spk17: And you talk about the U.S., Some companies come out of the pandemic strong. You can only imagine what a category-leading business like Outback looks like in Brazil coming out of the pandemic. Very strong.
spk08: Okay. And then last one for me, just on catering, can you remind us what percent of sales that channel was for Outback and Carrabba's pre-COVID? Tiny.
spk05: Yeah, it was a very small number.
spk08: And there are some new initiatives around that. I think I saw an announcement in recent weeks. There's sort of a broad strategic plan within that sales channel that you're moving forward with exiting the pandemic.
spk17: Yeah, not so much at Carrabba's because that's been in place for a while, but at Outback there was quite a bit of coverage on that, which we were happy to see.
spk08: All right, I'll pass along. Thank you.
spk10: Our next question comes from the line of Brett Levy with MKM Partners. You may proceed with your question.
spk07: Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess taking an opportunity to just further on a regional question, but also a little bit on the margin. We heard from an indirect competitor yesterday just about their labor challenges. Can you unpack a little bit more what you're seeing, either regionally or by quartiles or quintiles, how you are in terms of staffing levels, staffing productivity, what your unit level margins are, or at least how they're trending? Just give us a little bit of sense of what kind of ranges we're seeing out there as you continue your venture towards full recovery.
spk17: Yeah, I'll take the broader question on staffing, and I'll turn it over to Chris on any financial updates he'd like to provide. But I'm not going to make this too long, but I'll try and make it relatively succinct. We've had a long history of a strong culture and strong people measures in our restaurants. That was only enhanced during the pandemic and how we treated our people. And we're benefiting from that. We didn't let anybody go. The people were retained. And if you look at our turnover levels and our retention levels, they're among the best in the industry. Are there staffing challenges out there? Of course there are. But we started in a much, much, much better spot than others did in the industry, first of all. Second of all, the staffing environment has improved, even though it is challenging in certain spots. The spots are what you'd expect, parts of the Midwest and parts of the Northeast. But the staffing environment has improved. So our strong culture is paying off in a big way. We've got very good retention and turnover levels, and that enables us to keep our customer satisfaction high. and it cuts down on training costs and just churn costs in the restaurants. But for that, I'll turn it over to Chris for anything else.
spk05: Well, I would just add there's no question that there's a price to that in terms of inflation, and we're seeing that across the industry. We're seeing it internally, our inflation being up 10% in Q1. But the good news, again, is when you look at the way Q1 came together, the fact that we had such strong averaging of volumes and we have these efficiencies in our labor model, we were able to offset the inflation that we saw in the period, and we actually had some leverage year over year in the labor line.
spk13: Great, thanks.
spk07: And just, I know you gave some color on this, but can you give a little bit more clarity in terms of what is implied within the new 1.1 to 1.13 guidance for 2Q in terms of like new unit productivity, how much that's contributing as well as the comps. Thanks.
spk05: Yeah, I think just to go back to the comp question, again, we've said positive. We have positive same-store sales through April. That would be embedded in our guidance. And then the other piece that's easy to miss, but we try to bring it up time and time again, is that Brazil's recovery, especially when you consider that they were largely, they had a lot of COVID-related closures last year, that year-over-year recovery is going to be built into that number as well. So that's how you get to the 1.1 to the 1.3 range. In terms of the margins and how that came together from a profitability standpoint, again, I think it's pretty straightforward. We're just flowing through the sales process. and that we led to our increase for the full year, our full year guidance going up by, you know, call it $50 million. Some of that's coming into Q2, and that's, again, a product of the fact that we are expecting to see some of this check average appreciation that we had in Q1 to continue into the second quarter. Now, probably not as much year over year as we saw in Q1, and that's more just a product of the fact that Q1 was unique in the terms of the in-restaurant recovery was so strong that relative to the off-premises business, you don't have quite that same dynamic in the second quarter. So the check average benefit that we saw in Q1 probably isn't going to be as strong in Q2 as it was in the first quarter. Those are probably the pieces, parts I would call out.
spk13: Thank you. Very helpful.
spk10: Our next question comes from the line of Brian Mullen with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed with your question.
spk15: Thank you. Hey, just a question on the outstanding convertible notes. I guess number one, can you just remind us when you have the right to redeem those? And two, Chris, you mentioned on the last call, but are you still considering, or is there a scenario where you would do something before then in the open market or in negotiation with current holders? Maybe what scenario would that make sense for Blumen to do that versus waiting?
spk05: Yeah, so May of 2023 is when we have our first write. However, you can negotiate your way through these converts prior to that date. And look, I think that we're doing the math. The challenge is there is a premium that you have to pay not just to the holders, but also because we have warrants in place, there's a premium associated with the warrants as well. And so we just have to run the calculus as to whether or not the premium that we would have to pay to exit gives us outsized benefit relative to paying off that debt. I would tell you that the reason why we're strongly considering some of that is because There is a share overhang associated with the convert, and I think that just psychologically that creates a lot of challenges from a communication standpoint. But also, the math has to make some sense, too. So it's going to be sort of a dual-pronged kind of conversation. Does the math make sense, and does relieving that overhang from the convert give us any breathing space in terms of our ability to be able to communicate our story? And I think that should those two make sense, then we're going to explore something this year, if possible.
spk15: Okay, thanks for that. And then just bringing back to the development topic, it's helpful to hear about how many additional outbacks you think the U.S. could support. I'm just wondering if you could give that same type of commentary for Fleming's, you know, how many you think there could be over the longer term, just trying to get a sense of the magnitude of the opportunity you see for that brand.
spk17: Yeah, there's two opportunities at Fleming's. One is we think there's an additional 15 that we could do, and given their average unit volumes, that's significant. Second, the other opportunity is we've got some great restaurants and some really strong trade areas that we know, given what we've done in other restaurants, by expanding the bar, making the inside a little more modern, shall we say, and those kind of things can make big improvements in our sales. So we'll be doing both of those. We'll be enhancing and improving existing restaurants and strong trade areas and adding up to 15 more Fleming's.
spk15: Thank you.
spk10: Our next question comes from the line of Jared Garber with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed with your question.
spk02: Hi. Thanks for the question. Actually, it's sort of well-timed to follow up on some of the commentary on the remodels that you just mentioned. But specifically as it relates to Outback, you talked about that new prototype, that changes to the box in terms of ambiance and customer feel. Are you contemplating going back and remodeling and refreshing some of the older existing Outbacks in the portfolio to match this updated design? Thanks.
spk17: Yeah, we will do both. There's a cadence to our remodels, our interior remodels. And we're going across the country and refreshing those restaurants as we speak. It's embedded in our guidance, and we'll continue to do that in the coming years. And so between that and the new units, we think we can have an elevated brand from where it stands today. And then obviously, too, we're making technology investments to enhance the customer experience in the restaurant and in the back of the house.
spk02: Thanks. And do you have maybe a way to frame sort of, you know, what percentage of the, what percentage of the portfolio you feel sort of comfortable with in terms of, you know, the asset design now and maybe how many more there are left to go? Is it, are you 50, 50 now? I'm just, you know, sort of curious as we think about the upside opportunity from those redesigns and remodels. Thanks.
spk17: Yeah, we're, we're always refreshing. You know, we've got, We've been doing remodels all along. I don't think, you know, Jared, ever really, I don't mean to dodge the question, but there's ever really an end point per se. You know, as we build more restaurants, relocate more restaurants, and continue to refresh the restaurants, there will always be an opportunity to move forward. And that will be a continuous loop for us as we grow the business. Because by the time you finish one iteration, you start over again. But obviously, with up to 100 more restaurants, they'll be brand new that we can build with our relocation program that we have underway. Those assets are immediately updated, and then we'll continue over time to refresh restaurants each and every year.
spk10: Our last question comes from the line of John Tower with Citi. You may proceed with your question.
spk04: Awesome. Thanks for sneaking me in here. Just mostly follow-ups. I think you hit on some of these topics throughout the call, but I just wanted to make sure that I kind of nailed them down. In terms of looking at the first quarter, it looks like the traffic for Outback slipped a little bit versus the pre-COVID levels. And I didn't hear you mention it too much on the call, but I'm assuming Omicron might have weighed on some of the in-store traffic. or just traffic in general during the period. So first, you know, could you maybe explain why the traffic versus 2019 was a little bit weaker during the first quarter?
spk17: Yeah, it was versus 2021, correct? And versus 2019. Yeah, but Omicron hit 300 basis points impact on the traffic levels. I mean, that was, and we called out in our last Q1 call, and we expected that, and we talked about some of the things we're doing at Outback to move it forward. Got it.
spk04: Thank you. I appreciate that. And then just in terms of thinking about the marketing spend and the idea, and I think, David, you had hit on this a little bit earlier in the commentary, but what spurred the decision to take that up sequentially and, you know, was it brought on by, you know, something that you were seeing in the data or staffing levels coming back to a area where you felt like the in-store environment could handle or the in-store staffing could handle incremental demand? Or were you seeing something in your own data on the traffic side where you just felt that you needed to go to market and remind customers that the brand's out there and offering some good things?
spk17: Yeah, we talked earlier about how in March we turned some marketing back on. And when you have something like Omicron, it's not always wise to spend it on in-restaurant marketing. It's wise to spend it on off-premises marketing. And that's exactly some of the things that we did. Now, as I mentioned earlier, John, we've got a really good sense of what projects, marketing initiatives, et cetera, work. So we're going to be investing behind those and looking at those returns, specifically in the digital space and specifically around products. and specifically around in-restaurant dining. So you'll see more of that from us as we go forward. Our intention is not to engage in deep discounting or anything like that, but we believe we have the ideas to move this business forward, and we have a good sense of the returns that they offer, and we have a very good sense of the vehicles that we can use to make that work. And hopefully, with some of the pandemic-related issues, who knows for sure if it's behind us, but if habits and beliefs, return to in-restaurant dining. It's an opportunity for our company, and we're going to capitalize on that with our marketing.
spk04: Got it. Thank you. And then just lastly, on the unit growth piece of it, thank you for all the details so far. I am curious just to learn a little bit more about how you're thinking about siting these stores. versus the existing store base, specifically when you think about customer demographics or even the market sizes of these stores today? And even thinking about specifically getting it down to the pad, how are you thinking about co-locating with other brands on platforms? Is it any bit different than what you've done in the past, maybe mall versus non-mall? Is the philosophy that much different than what we've seen before? Obviously, the footprints are, but curious to learn more.
spk17: Well, we talked at length about the footprint and all the great work we've done there. Secondly, we talked about the fact that our stronghold markets are very advantaged demographic and economic areas. We are very strong in the south, and we intend to capture that. Third, we are seeing infill opportunities in quick-growing major metro areas, Nashville, Austin, Miami, et cetera, that we may not have contemplated in years past. Those cities are just growing rapidly. Third, those cities are also growing rapidly in new areas in that particular trade area. So new developing areas. We were just in Dallas, for instance, and I think the team was very amazed at how much that city has grown and what the opportunities look like. Those are the things that we're looking at as far as our unit expansion opportunity. And then kind of the extra, which we talked about for the first time today, in our core markets, That's also where bonefish and carrabbas generally tend to be strong. So we'll be looking at that as well, not to the extent that we're looking at Outback, but can we do some things with those restaurants in some of our core trade areas. So in summary, we've got the asset. We've got the team to pick the sites. We're in metropolitan areas that are growing rapidly and geographies that are growing rapidly, and we're in a much stronger position competitively versus when the pandemic started. And all those things are coming together to really provide us a development opportunity. Great. Thank you. Appreciate it.
spk10: Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of today's question and answer session. I would like to turn this call back over to Mr. Dave Dino for closing remarks.
spk17: Well, thank you for attending today, everybody. And we appreciate your questions and your interest in our company. And we look forward to updating you in July on our second quarter call.
spk10: This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation. Enjoy the rest of your day.
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