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spk09: Greetings and welcome to the BOK Financial Corporation third quarter 2021 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Stephen Nell, Chief Financial Officer for BOK Financial Corporation. Thank you, sir. You may begin.
spk05: Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Today, our CEO, Steve Bradshaw, will provide opening comments, and Stacey Kimes, our Chief Operating Officer, will cover our loan portfolio, credit metrics, and fee income businesses. Lastly, I'll provide details regarding net interest income, net interest margin, expenses, and our overall balance sheet position from a liquidity and capital standpoint. Joining us for the question and answer session are Mark Maughan, our Chief Credit Officer, who can answer detailed questions regarding credit metrics, and Scott Grauer, Executive Vice President of Wealth Management, who can expand on our wealth management activities. PDFs of the slide presentation and third quarter press release are available on our website at BOKF.com. We refer you to the disclaimers on slide two regarding any forward-looking statements we make during this call. I'll now turn the call over to Steve Bradshaw.
spk07: Good morning, thanks for joining us to discuss the third quarter 2021 financial results. This quarter was another in which our diversified revenue strategy was a key differentiator for us as we grew pre-tax, pre-provision earnings by 22% linked quarter and eclipsed $180 million in net income for the first time in the history of our company. Shown on slide four, third quarter net income was a record $188.3 million or $2.74 per diluted share That represents growth in net income of 13% from the record set last quarter, a result of our long-term commitment to our balanced earnings model and breadth of business capabilities. The key items that drove our success this quarter were, first, our fee-based business units continued to perform well, with total fees and commissions up $21 million, or 12% from last quarter. The contribution from our wealth management team continues to grow and impact results, achieving a new quarterly record for total revenues of $153 million for this quarter. This accounts for 30% of total revenues for the company and 51% of total fees and commissions for the quarter. Mortgage fees also increased $5.1 million, or 24% late quarter, primarily driven by a rebound in our reported margins from the lows recognized last quarter. Net interest revenue was unchanged on a late quarter basis with a slight improvement in loan fees, primarily due to non-use fees from low utilization levels, and our interest-bearing deposit cost of funds fell one more basis point this quarter. We continue to experience some compression in yields on our available-for-sale portfolio. However, that impact was more than offset by improved yields on our trading portfolio. Improving market conditions and credit trends allowed us to release $23 million of our loan loss reserve this quarter and $83 million for the year. Expense management remains excellent. Total expense is flat on a length quarter basis. We've managed expense growth to just slightly above 2% over the last two trailing 12-month periods, despite significant technology and cyber-related investments reflecting our disciplined approach. Turning to slide five, total loans are down $1.1 billion for the quarter, but Triple P loan forgiveness accounts for $586 million of that contraction. Core loan growth continues to remain a challenge this quarter as our energy and commercial real estate customers continue to pay down debt or refinance in the long-term markets. Loans attributed to our wealth segment grew $32 million this quarter, allowing them to surpass $2 billion in outstanding balances for the first time. Our core C&I book decreased at a pace similar to last quarter as our overall line utilization levels are at five-year lows. We believe this positions us for growth as the economy continues to rebound and supply chain disruptions are resolved. Average deposits increased another $344 million this quarter and are 9% higher than the same quarter a year ago. Assets under management are in custody and our wealth management business grew 2.3% link quarter to $98.8 billion, approaching the $100 billion milestone. largely due to new business acquisition and favorable market activity in the quarter. I'll provide additional perspective on the results before starting the question and answer session, but now Stacey Kynes will review the loan portfolio, our credit metrics, and the fee businesses in more detail. I'll turn the call over to Stacey.
spk01: Thanks, Steve. Turning to slide seven, period end loans in our core loan portfolio were $19.8 billion, down just over 2% for the quarter as we continue to see borrowers in some specialty lending areas continue to reduce leverage. Overall, commercial and specialized lending line utilization levels were down again this quarter, their lowest level of over the last five years, with the exception to that trend being our private wealth space, which grew at a 6% annualized clip on a linked quarter basis and 12% during the last 12 months. Energy balances declined in the third quarter as energy borrowers have significant liquidity with current oil and natural gas prices and have been generally paying down debt. We continue to grow new customers in this space, but paydowns have outpaced new loans. Our current belief is that the fourth quarter will be the inflection point, and we expect growth from this segment in 2022. Should drilling activity materially increase, The company is well-positioned to have strong growth in this sector given our long-term expertise and continuing strong commitment to the energy sector. Ancillary business from customer hedging, investment banking, and treasury for this segment set a new record for fee revenue this quarter, 9% above the previous high set in the third quarter last year. Healthcare balances fell slightly, down 34 million, or 1% linked quarter, primarily driven by our senior housing assisted living sector. Looking forward, we remain very confident in our ability to perform from both a growth and credit standpoint in this portfolio as it remains a leader for us. Core middle market CNI today is at the lowest level of utilization as any measured period back to March of 2015, dropping below 50% for the first time. This illustrates the significant capacity we have to move up as demand starts to come back online without it being predicated on any new customer acquisitions. A return to more normal utilization levels organically adds about $600 million of core CNI loans outside the anticipated growth in the specialty areas. Although the balance has declined again this quarter, the broad CNI portfolio is beginning to stabilize and is reason for optimism heading into next year. Commercial real estate balances contracted 3% this quarter. We continue to see borrowers use this low-rate environment to refinance to the long-term fixed rate non-recourse market. 2020 was one of real estate's lowest years for portfolio turnover, as many of the permanent markets were cautious. As those have opened up, we see some catch-up activity that is inherently a sign of a healthy portfolio but continues to create quarter-to-quarter volatility. I would expect balances to stabilize in the fourth quarter and resume a more normal growth pattern in 2022. Triple P loan balance forgiveness was substantial again this quarter, with $586 million forgiven, shrinking the portfolio by 52%. Of the remaining Triple P balances, only 4% of the 2020 vintage and 66% of the 2021 vintage remains. We expect the forgiveness process on the remaining balances to slow considerably. We believe we are well positioned for a more normal loan growth cycle as we look ahead into 2022. We believe that once supply chain constraints ease and we experience the full impact of fiscal stimulus, BOKF will be well positioned for accelerated loan growth. Turning to slide 8, you can see that credit quality continues to improve as we move further out from the pandemic. We continue to experience meaningful credit quality improvement across the broader loan portfolio, with non-performing assets and potential problem loans both down significantly again this quarter. Based on total commitments, this quarter ranks the first time that we've returned to a level below the pre-pandemic fourth quarter of 2019 for total criticized assets from lending-related activities. These factors, coupled with continued strength in commodity prices and a continued optimistic outlook for economic growth in GDP and the labor markets, led us to release 23 million in reserves this quarter. Net charge-offs were 7.8 million, or 16 basis points annualized, excluding Triple P loans in the third quarter. That's a decline from last quarter's 15.4 million, or 30 basis points annualized. Net charge-offs have dropped to an average of 26 basis points over the past four trailing quarters, which is at the lower end of our historic loss range. As we look forward to the next quarter, we expect net charge-offs will be at the lower end of our historical range. The combined allowance for loan losses totaled $306 million, or 1.54% of outstanding loans at quarter end, excluding Triple P loans. Non-occurring loans decreased $38 million from last quarter, primarily due to a reduction in non-occurring energy loans. Potential problem loans totaled $333 million at quarter end, down significantly from $384 million on June the 30th. Potential problem energy, services, and general business loans all decreased compared to the prior quarter. Turning to slide nine, a highlight is the record-setting third quarter the wealth management team produced. Total wealth management revenues were $153 million for the quarter, up nearly 17% from the linked quarter, and 14% above the previous record set in the third quarter of 2020. This includes the fee income lines that investors see on our corporate income statement, brokerage and trading, and fiduciary and asset management, as well as net interest income from loans and deposits in our private wealth group, and net interest income generated as part of the brokerage and institutional trading group. Banking products and services for private wealth clients continue to be a particular area to highlight. The total loan portfolio surpassed $2 billion in balances this quarter and is up 12% or $221 million compared to the same quarter a year ago. The deposit portfolio, ending the quarter at $3.9 billion, grew 3% linked quarter and was up 12% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Total net interest income continues to grow up 3% linked quarter. Total brokerage and trading revenues increased 15.4 million or 25% in the quarter. This is largely due to a shift in product strategy made during the second quarter in our institutional trading and sales business coupled with adding new financial institution clients. This confirms our expectation last quarter that this shift in product focus and expanded customer base is sustainable. We feel confident that we will maintain a robust level of activity and revenue generation in our MBS activities firm-wide. Our capital commitment is expected to remain relatively stable for the foreseeable future in this segment. Also in the wealth management space, fiduciary and asset management fees were up almost 1% lean quarter and 13% compared to the same quarter a year ago. It's important to note that the second quarter includes the annual tax preparation fees, so growth on top of that is significant and related to our strong growth in assets under management which now total $98.8 billion. While we have seen the benefit of favorable equity markets increasing customer account balances, sales activity remains strong in this space as well. Our current mix of assets under management are 41% fixed income, 39% equities, 12% cash, and 8% alternatives. Our relationship-driven business model is perfectly in touch with clients' needs today, as we continue to see institutions and individuals retain the increased appreciation for financial advice gained throughout the past 18 months. Transaction card revenue was relatively unchanged this quarter, but up 5% compared to the same quarter last year. This is largely due to stimulus measures and the broader reopening of the U.S. economy. Deposit service charges were up 1.6 million, or 6% this quarter, as we've experienced improvements in customer spending patterns. Mortgage banking revenue increased $5.1 million, our 24% linked quarter, primarily from an improved quarter-over-quarter valuation of our mortgage commitments. Overall, mortgage commitment volumes were relatively stable in the third quarter, but valuations compared favorably to second quarter valuations, which were largely driven by a decline in industry refinance production volumes. Despite this change in the unrealized mark-to-market between the quarters, actual settlement margins are down slightly, a trend we've seen all year and expect to carry forward into the fourth quarter. Industry-wide housing inventory constraints continue to impact the market. However, there was some good news on the housing front, as Fannie and Freddie both reversed their position on preferred stock purchase agreement delivery limits on second homes and investment properties. which should positively benefit us in our Colorado and Arizona markets. Other revenue declined $4.3 million linked quarter due to the sale of repossessed asset related to oil and gas properties. Although not included on slide nine, I will also note that the net economic changes in the fair value of the mortgage servicing rights and related economic hedges were positive $7.3 million during the quarter. also included in our total other operating revenue, but not reflected on slide nine, is a $31 million net gain from our activity and our alternative investment group. This area focuses on providing equity and debt capital to growing businesses, many of whom have been strong customers of BOK Financial. This is a very long-term business with a portfolio that has grown to 75 million invested in 11 portfolio companies. We expect this area to contribute to earnings going forward, albeit in a somewhat episodic manner. I'll now turn the call over to Stephen to highlight our NIM dynamics and the important balance sheet items for the quarter. Stephen?
spk05: Thanks, Stacy. Turning to slide 11, third quarter net interest revenue was $280 million, largely unchanged compared to last quarter. Average earning assets decreased $892 million compared to the second quarter. And average loan balances decreased $1.3 billion, with $875 million of that attributable to Triple P balances. Average core loan balances fell $443 billion. Average available for sale securities increased $203 million as we continue to reinvest most of the quarterly cash flows from the portfolio. Average trading securities grew by $187 million to support our brokerage and trading business. And average total deposits grew $344 million, with non-interest deposits up $480 million this quarter, which supports net interest income. We successfully redeemed our $150 million sub-debt during the quarter, which will save approximately $8 million annually in interest expense. Net interest margin was 2.66%, up six basis points from the previous quarter, with the increase primarily driven by Triple P forgiveness activity that's occurred during the second and third quarters. Triple P loans supported net interest margin by two basis points in the second quarter and seven basis points in the third quarter. Excluding all Triple P impact to the margins, both quarters net interest margin would be approximately 2.58%. The reinvestment of cash flows from our available for sale securities portfolio did result in a five basis point link quarter decline in average yields. Additionally, we had continued success driving interest-bearing deposit costs down one additional basis point to 13 basis points on average for the quarter. We believe the core margin is stable, and next quarter will include a full quarter's benefit from the subdebt call this past quarter. So with that and excluding all PPP impact, we expect a net interest margin of approximately 2.6%. We do not expect any upward migration in net interest margin until rates begin to rise again. With anticipated rate hikes potentially on the horizon within a year or so, it is important to recall how well we performed during the last rate hike cycle from 2015 to 2019 in the upper or the top quartile of regional banks. While we can't be assured to repeat that experience, we don't see much that would lead us to believe the experience will be materially different. In fact, there's even more liquidity in the system today than before the last rate increase cycle, which should diminish the need for the market to move rates up quickly. Turning to slide 12, expense management remains prudent, with total expenses flat linked quarter and down 2% compared to the same quarter last year. Personnel expense increased 3.8 million or 2% lean quarter. However, this was driven by sales-related compensation, which was more than offset by the strong revenue gains overall. An additional offset was due to seasonal decline in payroll taxes. Regular compensation expense was flat. All told, we're very happy with our ability to hold the personnel cost efficiencies earned through the pandemic and expect to do so going forward. Non-personnel expense was down $3.7 million this quarter. Operating expenses related to repossessed properties fell $6 million this quarter as we sold the oil and gas properties driving this expense. Mortgage banking costs decreased $2.2 million due to a decrease in prepayments combined with lower accruals related to default servicing and lost mitigation costs on loans serviced for others. Data processing and communication expense increased $2 million as a result of various project investments. On slide 13, our liquidity position remains very strong. Our loan-to-deposit ratio declined from 57% last quarter to just below 53% at September 30th, largely due to the significant decline in PPP balances again this quarter. This significant on-balance sheet liquidity leaves us well-positioned to meet future customer needs. Our capital position remains very strong as well, with a common equity tier one ratio of 12.3%, well ahead of our internal operating range. With such strong capital levels, we once again were active with share repurchase, opportunistically repurchasing 478,000 shares and an average price of $85 per share in the open market. On slide 14, I'll leave you with a few thoughts as we move into our budget season for 2022. We believe net activity and loan growth will improve with our company positioned for positive growth once bar demand returns and our line utilization levels return to normal. We expect the overall loan loss reserve as a percentage of loan balances to continue to migrate towards pre-pandemic levels. Core net interest margin has stabilized. We may see slight downward pressure as our available for sale securities portfolio continues to reprice. but the significant pressure on net interest margin experienced the past year is largely behind us. Our diverse portfolio of fee revenue streams are expected to remain solid and will continue to provide strong support to total revenue. We'll continue our disciplined approach to controlling personnel and non-personnel costs with total expense levels expected at similar levels seen in the past few quarters. Our focus will be holding the line on manageable expenses without sacrificing multi-year technology commitments to improve customer service and our competitive position. As I mentioned a moment ago, we feel good about our capital strength. We'll continue looking for share buyback opportunities and plan to maintain our quarterly cash dividend level. I'll now turn the call back to Steve Bradshaw for closing commentary.
spk07: Thank you, Steven. As I mentioned at the top of the call, it was a record quarter for BOK Financial. We continue to do the right things the right way for the benefit of our long-term investors, adding shareholder value without compromising credit discipline or foregoing investment that might hinder the company's future. And as witnessed by our credit outcomes, the benefit from our alternative investment strategy and the new record wealth management contribution this quarter, we continue to do this in a prudent, diversified way. While this quarter was once again about the contribution from our fee-based businesses, The vastly improving outlook for growth in our footprint as we emerge from the pandemic is driving customer confidence in a way we haven't seen for quite some time. While supply chain and workforce disruptions might be hampering some areas in the near term, economic indicators remain strong, which portends well for the future. We are cautiously optimistic about the restart of some of our largest growth drivers in the county. With that, we're pleased to take your questions. Operator?
spk09: Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question comes from the line of Brady Gailey with KBW. Please proceed with your question.
spk06: Hey, this is Will Jones on the radio. Good morning, guys. Good morning. Good morning. Hey, Grace. So I just wanted to sort of on loan growth. I know loans are down a bit again this quarter. We were hoping for an inflection in 3Q, but I hear you guys on your optimism moving into next quarter and into 2022. Could you just walk us through some of the drivers that are giving you this confidence in your growth outlook and it kind of feels like a low growth rate may be achievable for you guys next year. Would you say that's a fair assessment?
spk01: Yeah, we're not ready to talk about our 2022 projections at this point, but I'll certainly talk about why we would be optimistic about higher levels of loan growth as we move into next year. If you look at the big drivers of the decline this quarter, you clearly had the PPP paydowns. We're at about 80% of those that we originated have paid down year to date. Energy and commercial real estate are the two other areas that really drove the biggest declines this quarter. And those are the two areas that we probably have the least amount of concerns about them growing in 2022. Energy is very well positioned. We've added in excess of 40 new customers and almost a billion dollars of commitments associated with those in 2021. because of our continued commitment to that space, and we're very confident that as we move into next year that we'll see growth there. Same with commercial real estate. You really have an anomaly because of the kind of tenuous circumstances of the pandemic. You had borrowers who didn't refinance, so we didn't have the portfolio turnover in 2020 that we historically have, so you kind of doubled up on that a little bit this year. You may see a little bit of that continue into the fourth quarter, but certainly our commercial real estate team has done a great job of continuing to add commitments to the book, and we expect to see that as an area of growth. So the two biggest areas that drove the decline this quarter in our core portfolio are the two areas that we have the most confidence in as we move into 2022. So I think that that's a big part of that, and certainly our healthcare sector continues to do very well. Good growth there. Been very strong, consistent growth over a long period of time. Core C&I really is the open question. It really depends on when line utilization has began to move up. There's a lot of factors involved there. We've alluded to the supply chain issues that impact some of that. The liquidity that's in the market is a part of that as well. But we're very well positioned. Good activity in our pipelines on the commercial and corporate banking side. So we remain very optimistic about that.
spk06: Great. That's all super helpful. You know, maybe just turning specifically to energy, you know, just thinking longer term about that portfolio, how to assume a nice recovery in energy prices and, you know, demand as it eventually returns. What is the ultimate expectation as to where energy loans, you know, as a percentage of your whole portfolio trends, I know it's historically in that 18 to 20% range and, closer to 14% today. How do you think about your overall energy exposure longer term in relation to the total portfolio? Is it something you manage to a particular capital level or is it a specific loan concentration?
spk01: We manage it both to the percent of capital and as a percent of the loan portfolio in that we have significant capacity under both measures to grow that portfolio today and And neither of those metrics even approaches any kind of potential headwind for growth in that sector. We obviously remain very optimistic about growth there. I think as you get into next year, at these price levels, we're hopeful that there'll be more drilling activity. And that would certainly drive borrowing demand and obviously loan demand that goes with that. We're excited about that space. We think that that continues to be an area that we have great expertise and great consistency in our delivery of that into the market. And we've been recognized for that with the new customers that we've acquired during the year. And in fact, I think in the third quarter in the league tables, we were the number one originator in the energy space for the loan sizes that kind of fit our kind of less than $500 million in total loan size. So we're excited about where we're positioned there, and we think that that's going to be a driver for us well into the future. I think the other point of that, we get awfully focused on the loan balance piece of that business, but I mentioned it in my prepared remarks and want to reference it again. That area also had a record quarter in fee revenue. both in treasury revenue, investment banking revenue, and derivatives revenue. It's a big part of the nature of that relationship. It is not just a lending relationship. It's a very full and whole relationship that has other profitable aspects of the business that is important to the bank and important to our shareholders.
spk06: Awesome. All very helpful. Last for me, just maybe more so housekeeping. Would you remind us what your percent utilization is today? apologies if you said that during your remarks and I missed that.
spk01: Yeah, when you look at the overall portfolio, it's hard to give an absolute number. We're in kind of about 64% overall, but that's probably not the absolute best way to look at it because some of those commitments like in energy can accordion up and down depending on prices over time. I think what in our core C&I, kind of our corporate C&I area, we're below 50% for the first time in any recent history. And in that particular segment, we believe just a return to a more normal loan growth would enhance the loan balances by about $600 million. That's just for that more corporate C&I group. It doesn't impact the specialty areas and others that also would benefit from growth and increase in utilization as well.
spk00: Great.
spk06: That's it for me. Thanks for taking my questions.
spk09: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matt Olney with Stevens Inc. Please proceed with your question.
spk04: Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. Hey, Matt. Good morning. Sticking with some of the energy questions here, I think, Stacey, you mentioned adding 40 new customers in that business this year. That's helpful. What are existing energy customers saying with respect to their strong cash flows from higher commodity prices? Is there talk about more drilling activity, or they still expect to pay off more debt? Thanks.
spk01: There's modest discussion. I mean, the discussion's really – think about, as an energy producer, kind of what they've lived in the last 18 months. I mean, they've seen a day where oil price was negative and natural gas was clearly depressed to now today, you know, oil is above 75 and natural gas at one point hit $6 an MCF. So very different environment. And they've seen a lot of volatility associated with that. they're much more disciplined around hedging and so they're much more focused on that. I think today the biggest conversations are around free cash flow. And being able to have cash flow to demonstrate the returns to their investors I think is really important to them. And so I think what the early discussions that we are learning about really is at this stage probably much more modest drilling activity than you might expect. given the significant run-up in commodity prices over the last six months or so. That doesn't mean that won't change. We're kind of in that capital budgeting season for those energy customers, so we'll learn more about that throughout this quarter, but certainly my expectation is for modest not significant but modest increases in drilling activity as we move into next year. Certainly, that could change depending on a lot of factors, including if commodity prices continue to increase.
spk04: Okay. That's really helpful, Stacey. And then I guess the other data point you gave us was that the energy commitment balances have grown by about a billion dollars so far this year from those newer customers. I'm trying to appreciate the baseline of that number. Do you have the overall levels of energy commitments at the bank or just an approximate number?
spk01: At the end of September, if you look at energy commitments, we were at about $5.4 billion. That number ebbs and flows probably more than any other committed amount. because you get borrowing bases that expand and contract, you know, semi-annually. So, you know, the utilization there is lower than it has been historically as well. It's in the low 50% utilization. So, you know, a combination of I think we're going to see commitment growth there as well as hopefully higher utilization as we go into next year.
spk04: Okay, perfect. And then just lastly from me, I guess on the PPP side, do you have the dollar amount of the fees that were recognized in the third quarter? And how much left do you expect to recognize over the next few quarters? Thanks.
spk05: Yeah, Matt, this is Steven. The fees we recognize in the third quarter is $12.7 million. That's a little bit higher than the second quarter, which is $11.1 million. And we have $15 million left to recognize, but most of that's associated with kind of the 2021 vintage loans. And so that's going to spread out, we think, over a longer period of time. So you won't see the same level of fee recognition in the fourth quarter and on in early parts of the 2022 that you've seen so far with that 2020 vintage that's almost all gone.
spk04: Okay. Okay. Thanks, guys. Thank you.
spk09: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
spk02: Hey, thanks. Good morning.
spk01: Hi. Good morning.
spk02: Stacey, can you touch on the commercial real estate balances? Do you expect that move to the permanent market to accelerate, or is this just kind of a nagging thing that's going to be with you for a while and potentially slow at some point?
spk01: We certainly expect it to slow. We really saw that begin to accelerate in the second quarter or third quarter. I'd like to see it stabilize a little bit before I call the bottom there. I think it's likely that's the fourth quarter. But you had no movement to the permanent market last year. You've got the nature of our portfolio is they tend to get through construction and stabilization and then refinance to a non-recourse permanent financing source. So you've kind of got a couple years that we're doubling up on here. But I think that will stabilize likely in the fourth quarter, could stretch into the first quarter next year. My best guess is that it would be late fourth quarter this year. And then we'd be well positioned to grow from there. Okay. Okay, good.
spk02: And on loan growth, again, I know you don't want to talk about 2022, but just a couple of things. You're talking about increased borrower demand, line utilization, returning to normal. I think Steve Bradshaw, you talked about restart of growth drivers. Does it, Does it feel like we're just getting started on, you know, call it non-stimulus-driven growth in the economy, if that makes sense? It just feels like things are lining up for better growth, you know, plus not to mention the energy piece of this. I guess, are you guys bullish? Are you more and more bullish on growth for U4 in 2022? Yeah.
spk01: We're very bullish, lots of reasons. We stand to disproportionately benefit from commodity prices rising. We've got an energy book that will benefit from a growth perspective. We've got a footprint that will benefit, that is growing. Steve and I have been in Texas last couple of weeks, and man, you cannot do anything down there without seeing just the enormous in-migrations I've been in Phoenix, a lot of things going on in Phoenix and Denver. I mean, the in-migration from the coastal areas is significant. Our footprint is just perfect for that. I think that you've seen borrower sentiment be exceptionally strong. There are some economic headwinds, whether it's supply chain or labor shortages, that will resolve themselves at some level, I think, in the next quarter or two. And most of the stimulus dollars have been allocated to states and local governments haven't even been spent yet. And so I think that there is an enormous level of growth kind of pin up. And I think we're in the very early stages of beginning to see that.
spk02: Yeah, okay. Yeah, it's interesting. It's like we skipped the credit cycle and now we're emerging to grow. So it sets up pretty well. Just one more thing on deposit flows. You use the term, I think they're abating a bit, but it's still very, very strong. Do you expect that to slow, deposit growth to continue to slow? And what do you think could eventually reverse the growth and maybe see deposits start to come down?
spk01: We think, as we kind of have had the beginnings of some of our internal discussions about how we should think about for next year, We actually aren't seeing, from say the current level that you see today, we're not seeing material declines. We're not forecasting material declines in the deposit levels. We think that the liquidity that's in the market's gonna be here because even if that, the current liquidity is used, there's gonna be additional liquidity that hasn't been pushed through the system yet that will replace that. So certainly for the foreseeable 12 months or so, we believe that the deposit levels you see today are likely in the range of what you will see going forward. The other question that kind of gets asked related as well, if you've got that much liquidity in the system, how can you have loan growth? It's a fair question. We've kind of looked at that back in 08, 09, 2010, the last time you had a significant downturn and then a recovery. You can have loan growth with strong liquidity in the system. Often it's in different sectors. So the total may have a lot of liquidity, but different sectors are growing at different paces, so it creates loan demand. So those aren't mutually exclusive. They are related, but they're not mutually exclusive either.
spk02: Okay. All right. Thanks for the help on those questions.
spk09: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you'd like to join the question queue, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from the line of Gary Tenner with DA Davidson. Please proceed with your question.
spk03: Thanks. Good morning. Just a couple of questions here. In terms of mortgage, it began on sale, as you pointed out, was quite a bit higher than it was last quarter. And if I understood correctly, it was because the commitment levels kind of stabilized after a big drop off into queue. I just wonder if you could give any thoughts on how you see gain on sale migrating because you're still well above where the kind of pre-2020 gain on sale levels were.
spk01: Yeah, without being specific to kind of gain on sale, just looking at the business overall, we think that likely what you see in the fourth quarter for the mortgage business from a revenue perspective is going to be pretty close to in line with what you saw in the second quarter. from a mortgage revenue perspective. There may be some opportunities on the expense side related to MSR amortization that may benefit us a little bit more in the fourth quarter, so our overall contribution for mortgage, we would expect to be kind of consistent with the second quarter, maybe a little bit better when you look at pre-tax contribution for mortgage, but the revenue levels we think will be much more consistent with what we saw in the second quarter.
spk03: Okay, thank you. And then, Stephen, I know you mentioned that you expect PPP forgiveness to kind of be stretched out from here, but can you just remind us what the remaining PPP fees are to be recognized?
spk05: Yes, $15 million is what we have remaining. I think the balance of the PPP loans is $580 million, something like that. And again, it's that kind of second round or 2021 vintage, which we'll you know, will be forgiven over a longer period of time than you saw the first round. So that's why we think the $15 million will be spread out over, you know, many coming quarters.
spk03: Yeah. All right. Great. Thanks for taking the questions.
spk09: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matt Olney with Steven Zink. Please proceed with your question.
spk04: Yeah. Hey, guys. Just a few more here on the follow-up side. I'm looking at the average balance sheet. It looks like the investment securities balances are now around 50% of average earning assets, which I think is the highest level we can find going back several years at the bank. Is there any appetite to move that higher in the near term as we wait for loan growth, or do you think this has now peaked at this point?
spk05: Yeah, I think it's generally peaked. I mean, there's two components of that. I think $13 billion roughly is AFS, and the other $7 billion or so we have for our trading portfolio. But the $13 billion AFS I think is pretty close to where we want it to be. It is up a couple of hundred million this quarter, but we don't really have any initiatives to drive that higher, not in the face of what we think will ultimately be some increasing rate hopefully by the end of 2022. We're pretty comfortable with our interest rate risk position and that AFS portfolio is, I think, at the right level, at least the way we're thinking about it today.
spk01: Matt, if you think about being positioned in rising rates, I think if you look at our performance through the last rising rate cycle, we were kind of a top quartile bank from that perspective. And certainly the language coming out of the Fed, the various governors over the last month or so has certainly been more indicative of tightening than the continued loose monetary policy. So we currently are forecasting our first increase in December next year. I think there's probably more pressure that happens sooner than later than that. And, you know, we're awfully well positioned to benefit from rising rates and would want to be well positioned for that if it comes sooner than later.
spk04: Yeah, that's a great point, Stacy. Thanks for bringing that up. And I guess, What about on the loan floor side? What's the level of loan floors you have at this point? And then how many rate increases do you have to see to get above some of those floors?
spk05: So there's just shy of $4 billion of our loans have floors embedded in them. Right now, it's supporting net interest income about $20 million a year. And so it supports NIM about five basis points. So that kind of gives you an idea of what you would have to you know, push through and the support that we're getting there now.
spk01: And those are roll-offs. We're competitively, we're able to get fewer floors and deals today than we were 12 months ago. So if you assume kind of a three-year roll-off of that, then, you know, there'll be less in 12 months than there are today for sure. Yeah.
spk04: And going back to the AFS securities portfolio, it sounds like, There could be a little bit more pressure on the yields there, but we're getting close to bottoming. Is that fair, Stephen?
spk05: Yeah, I mean, if you look at the portfolio yield itself is 180. I looked this morning. We added some securities, in fact, yesterday at 135. So, you know, those are four- to five-year duration securities. So we do have a little bit of, you know, there is room there. for that to continue to reprice down. That's why I mentioned it. But I don't think it's an overall huge drag on that interest margin. I really think that we've overall stabilized the margin pretty well. But there is a little bit left there if rates stay low between the portfolio yield and what we're adding in terms of the cash flow that we get back and reinvest.
spk01: We did pay off, Stephen alluded to this, we did pay off the sub-debt in the third quarter and the that was a partial impact of that. So we still have a full quarter impact in the fourth quarter of around $2 million that should be beneficial overall to the margin as well.
spk04: Yeah. Okay. And then on the loan yield side, I think we're trying to separate the PPP impact and look at just the core yield. And I think you mentioned the two loan categories you have strong conviction that could grow next year would be energy and then commercial real estate. Did I... Is it fair to say those two categories have higher yields on average than most other parts of the portfolio at the bank?
spk01: That's a true statement.
spk04: Stacey, how would you characterize energy loan spreads today historically versus the rest of the portfolio? Are they still relatively higher?
spk01: They are. As folks have decided to leave the space, clearly the spreads there have been very stable. There are fewer competitors there today, and we're still getting the appropriate spreads for the risk that we take in that space.
spk04: Okay, perfect. All right, last one, guys. Brokerage and trading, you guys hit a home run this quarter. Looks like it was mostly on trading and then customer engagement. I know it's tough to predict kind of quarter to quarter, but just talk more about the sustainability of these levels in the third quarter.
spk01: Yeah, let me hit a couple of things there and then ask Scott if he wants to add anything to that. You know, we are really proud of our wealth group. We're just right at $100 billion in assets under management. And sometimes, whether it's energy on the lending side or the trading businesses on the wealth side, those types of things kind of overshadow what core is happening inside the company. And certainly the trading businesses create volatility, but if you look at wealth revenues overall, there is intra-quarter volatility, but we've grown wealth total revenue year over year for over 10 consecutive years now. And that wealth revenue CAGR is in excess of 9%. And so there's volatility in some of these trading businesses, but there's core growth that's happening. I think the market's missing inside of our wealth business. And so as we think about the fourth quarter, we think the trading aspect of that business will be probably somewhere between what we saw in the second quarter and the third quarter. Probably not as strong as the third quarter, probably maybe a little bit better than what we saw in the second quarter. But if you think about the business and how we think about that business, total wealth revenue has been a significant driver of our company. And it's not just the trading business. It's the asset center management that we're providing counsel for our customers and institutions around. You typically will see assets that are managed are half the size of the core bank. Ours are over twice the size of the core bank and almost $100 billion. So we're proud of that business, and we're excited about what we've done on the trading side. But the core wealth business has been a key growth driver for our company for a long time. Scott, anything you want to add to that?
spk08: No, I think Stacy said it well. I think that, you know, in addition to the probably more volatile quarter to quarter result on the institutional trading side, you know, we have kind of quietly managed to grow our retail brokerage revenues as well. at a healthy rate, both on a linked quarter basis and versus last year. And also in our investment banking business has been very strong, as Stacey said earlier in prepared comments. We're really, you couple that with the continued momentum that we're getting both on the mortgage backed security side, that is that large component, but coupled with investment banking, retail brokerage, and then our hedging activities. Not just energy related, but also in our FX business, and our interest rate derivative activity. All those components are, we think, very well positioned for continued momentum.
spk04: Okay, great stuff, guys. Thanks again. Thank you, Matt.
spk09: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question and answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Nell for any final comments.
spk05: Okay, thanks again, everyone, for joining us. If you have further questions, please call me at 918-595-3030, or you can email us at ir at bokf.com. Have a great day. Thank you.
spk09: Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
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