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spk05: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for attending today's Popular Inc. Q1 2023 earnings calls. My name is Tia, and I will be your moderator for today's call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portion of the call, with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Paul Cordelio with Popular Inc. Please proceed.
spk11: Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With us on the call today is our COO, Javier Ferrer, our CFO, Carlos Vasquez, and our CRO, Lidio Soriano. They will review our results for the first quarter and then answer your questions. Other members of our management team will also be available during the Q&A session. Our CEO, Ignacio Alvarez, is unavailable today due to a medical matter. We expect him back at the office early next week. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that on today's call, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are set forth within today's earnings press release and are detailed in our SEC filings. You may find today's press release and our SEC filings on our webpage at popular.com. I will now turn the call over to our COO, Javier Ferrer.
spk07: Thank you, Paul. Good morning and thank you for joining the call. We began the year with a strong quarter, achieving net income of $159 million. Our quarterly net income was $30 million lower than the adjusted fourth quarter net income of $189 million. First quarter results were impacted by lower net interest income, offset in part by lower higher non-interest income, and a slightly lower provision for credit losses. Loans increased during the quarter by $261 million. Banco Popular generated loan growth across all segments, while Popular Bank saw commercial loan growth offset by runoff in the construction and consumer portfolios. Our net interest margin decreased by six basis points to 3.22 percent in the quarter. Higher deposit costs, particularly in our Puerto Rico public deposit portfolio and a popular bank, impacted our margin. This was partially offset by an improvement in asset mix due to loan growth and a reduction of the investment portfolio. Credit quality trends remained favorable during the period. MPLs decreased and net charge-offs remained well below pre-pandemic levels. During the quarter, Popular issued 400 million in five-year senior notes with a 7.25% coupon. We intend to use a portion of the net proceeds of the offering to redeem or repay the 300 million principal amount of our senior notes that mature in September. Please turn to slide four. We maintain robust liquidity anchored by our diversified deposit franchise and our high levels of cash reserves and unpledged securities. Our deposit franchise is made up of approximately 42% in retail deposits with an average balance of less than $10,000 per account. 25% of the balances are in public sector deposits, which are secured by collateral. 28% are in commercial deposits, and the remaining 5% are wholesale deposits. Overall, deposits were down by $273 million in the quarter, but liquidity sources were up by $1.3 billion. Our total consolidated borrowings, including our newly issued senior notes, remained flat during the quarter. Our customer base in Puerto Rico grew by approximately 12,000 during the quarter, reaching nearly 2 million unique customers. Adoption of digital channels among our retail customers remains strong. Active users on our MiBanco platform exceeded 1.1 million, or 56% of our customer base. In addition, we continue to capture more than 60% of our deposits through digital channels. This trend remains significantly higher and pre-pandemic levels and well above our island peers. In the first quarter, consumer spending remained healthy and with combined credit and debit card sales up 9% compared to the first quarter of 2022. As on the mainland, mortgage originations in Puerto Rico have been impacted by rising rates and also by limited inventory of available properties. The dollar value of mortgage originations at Banco Popular decreased by 29% compared to the first quarter of last year, driven by lower refinance activity due to the interest rate environment. The local economy performed well during the first quarter. Business activity is solid and remains in good shape, as reflected in the continued positive trends in total employment and other published economic data. While new auto sales have slowed compared to the quarterly pace of the past couple years, they remain above pre-pandemic levels, evidencing continued robust demand for cars in Puerto Rico. The tourism and hospitality sector continues to be a source of strength for the local economy. Year to date, San Juan Airport has seen record levels of passenger traffic. Hotel demand also has been strong, as can be seen in record high average daily rates and revenues per available room. There are still approximately 50 billion of hurricane recovery funds that have yet to be disbursed. We expect that these funds will support economic activity in many sectors in the coming years. We are uniquely positioned to serve the needs of our customers and to benefit from such activity. In short, we are pleased with our results for the quarter, particularly our solid loan growth in Puerto Rico and the continued strength of our deposit base, liquidity, and credit quality. We are mindful of and have been monitoring the economic and market environment. as well as the recent developments in the U.S. banking sector. We will continue to manage our banks to maintain significant available liquidity as we grow responsibly. Despite these headwinds, we remain optimistic about the future of Puerto Rico, our primary market, and our ability to manage and serve the needs of our customers through any potential challenges that may lie ahead. I now turn the call over to Carlos for more details on our financial results.
spk08: Thank you, Javier. Good morning. Sorry, apologies. Please turn to slide five. Net income was $159 million compared to $257 million in Q4. Excluding the impact of the $68 million DTA allowance reversal in Q4, net income decreased by $30 million in Q4. Net interest income was $532 million, a decrease of $28 million from Q4. $9 million of this variance was related to a lower date count during the quarter. On a taxable equivalent basis, net interest income was $570 million, compared to $622 million in Q4. The variance was primarily a result of higher interest expense on deposits of $54 million, resulting from increased deposit rates mainly from Puerto Rico public deposits and, to a lesser extent, popular banking. Non-interest income was $162 million, an increase of $3 million from Q4. Included in this result was a $7 million litigation-related insurance claim reimbursement. The provision for credit losses was $47 million compared to $48 million in the fourth quarter. Total operating expenses were $441 million, a decrease of $21 million from the prior quarter. This reduction was primarily driven by lower professional fees by $16 million, as well as lower technology and software expenses by $10 million. Historically, these costs tend to be lower during the first quarter of every year. This is more accentuated in the first quarter of this year due to our multi-year transformation initiatives. During Q1, we had 6 million transformation-related expenses compared to 10 million last quarter. As the transformation progresses, expenses will shift from advisory and conceptual plans to development and execution of implementation plans. As a result, we expect a slower pace of expenditure initially, as in Q1, and an acceleration as the year progresses. We continue to anticipate transformation-related expenses of $50 million in 2023. Other large expense variances were lower seasonal business promotion expenses by $9 million, which was somewhat upset by higher personal costs by $9 million, primarily related to the previously disclosed increase in hourly minimum wage at BPPR that took effect in January, and lower overall benefit of $7 million mostly due to lower gain on sale of properties. Our quarterly expense trajectory has historically ramped up as the year progresses. We anticipate that 2023 will be consistent with that experience and continue to expect expenses for the year of approximately $1.87 billion. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 23%. For the full year 2023, we expect the effective tax rate to be within a range of 21 to 26% higher than the range provided during our last webcast. In the near term, we expect to run our banks with a higher level of reserves at the Fed, which leads to less tax-exempt income and therefore a higher tax rate than we have previously anticipated. Please turn to slide six. Net interest income was $532 million. On a taxable equivalent basis, it was $570 million, $51 million lower than in the fourth quarter. Net interest margin decreased by six basis points to 3.22% in Q1. On a taxable equivalent basis, NIM was 3.46%, a decrease of 18 basis points. The decrease is driven by higher interest expense on deposits due to a significant, though anticipated, 103 basis point increase in the cost of public deposits. This was partially offset by higher loan balances and yields, plus an improved mix of earning assets. At the end of the first quarter, public deposits were roughly $15.5 billion, or $15.8 billion, excluding $700 million in deposits held and managed by our Trust Division. This compares to $15.8 billion and $15.2 billion, respectively, at year end. In the past, we had excluded the balances in trust from our discussion about Puerto Rico public deposits, given that these are managed by our fiduciary services division, where we act as custodian or escrow agents. However, we have decided to aggregate these amounts to reflect the overall relationship with government entities and provide more visibility to collateralized deposits. These trust deposits have always been reported in our total deposit balance. During 2023, now inclusive of trust deposits, we expect public deposits to be in a range of 14 to 16 billion, essentially unchanged from our previous expectation of 13 to 15 billion that excluded trust deposits. It's important to reiterate that by law in Puerto Rico, public deposits must be 100% collateralized. Any decrease in the level of these deposits will have no significant impact on our liquidity. Excluding Puerto Rico public deposits, consolidated deposit balances increased by $180 million in the quarter, primarily time and saving deposits at popular banks gathered through a direct channel. This compares to a decrease of $1.4 billion in non-public deposits during the fourth quarter. In Q1, we continue to see some commercial and high-net-worth clients pursuing better yields on excess liquidity, moving these funds outside the banking sector. However, we have been able to capture a good portion of this movement in our broker-dealer, which saw an increase in assets under management of approximately $450 million. Since the end of Q1, overall deposit Deposits have increased by approximately $700 million. Our interest rate sensitivity continues to be relatively neutral. As the year progresses, we expect the margin to resume an upward trajectory. The timing will depend on the interaction of our loan growth and mix, deposit balances, and the pace of repricing of public and incrementally non-public deposits. Our earning loan balances increased by $161 million compared to Q4, driven by growth on all loan segments at BPPR and commercial loans at PV. We are encouraged by the demand for credit at BPPR and PV. We will continue to take advantage of opportunities to extend credit, thereby improving the use and yield of our existing liquidity. Please turn to slide seven. Deposit betas in the current tightening cycle are now at or above the prior cycle. We have seen a total cumulative deposit beta of 24% to date. However, in Q1, we saw an acceleration of deposit pricing. In BBPR, total deposit costs increased by 35 basis points, led by public sector deposits. In PV, total deposit costs increased by 67 points, led by retail deposits, as we increase the use of our online deposit channel. In Puerto Rico, our combined retail and commercial deposit betas cycle to date have been less than 10%. As we've discussed over the past couple of quarters, given the rapid shift to higher short-term interest rates, we expected a significant increase in the cost of public deposits. In the first quarter, the cost increased by 103 basis points versus our January estimate of roughly 120 basis points. The difference rests in lower average balances and the mechanics of the interest expense calculation. We expect the cost of public deposits to increase by approximately 60 basis points in Q2. The deposit pricing agreement with the Puerto Rico public sector is market linked with a lag. This source of funding results in an attractive spread under market rate. Please turn to slide eight. We have added the following two slides in our deck because of the increased focus on liquidity, borrowings, and deposit composition. Liquidity sources for the corporation increased by $1.3 billion in Q1. 77% of this liquidity resides in excess funds at the Fed and on pledged securities. Borrowings for the quarter were flat at $1.4 billion. We reduced our federal home loan bank borrowings by $366 million in Q1. However, the issuance of our senior notes due in 2028 roughly compensated for that reduction. There were no incremental borrowings during the quarter from the federal home loan bank, the Fed discount window, or the bank term funding program. On March 13, 2023, Popular issued 400 million of 7.25% senior notes due in 2028. We intend to use a portion of the net proceeds of the offering to redeem or repay 300 million principal amount of our outstanding senior notes that mature in September 2023. Please turn to slide nine. The summation of transactional accounts and time deposits with balances over $250,000 ended Q1 at $13.8 billion, or 23% of total deposit balances. The liquidity sources described in slide 8, the prior slide, total $18.3 billion, covering 135% of deposits over $250,000. The balances of our non-interest-bearing deposits have been steady. Most of our recent balance changes have been in interest-bearing accounts. Please turn to slide 10. Our investment portfolio is almost entirely comprised of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, which carry minimal credit risk. Including our cash position, this portfolio has an average duration of approximately 2.6 years. As discussed previously, given the rapid increase in rates in 2022, as well as the uncertain outlook for interest rates, in October of last year, we transferred to health to maturity $6.5 billion of U.S. treasuries, thereby reducing the future impact of rates on tangible book value. At the time, this action reduced AOCI exposure to interest rates by about a third. When transferred to HDN, these positions had a pre-tax unrealized loss of $873 million, which will be amortized back into capital throughout the remaining life of the transferred position. As of the end of the first quarter, the balance of this unrealized loss stood at $789 million, a reduction of $43 million from Q4 and $84 million from the transfer date. We expect this loss to be amortized back into capital through the remaining life of the portfolio at a rate of approximately 5% per quarter through 2026. As a result of the timing of this transfer, And given the level of rates at quarter end, all of the unrealized losses related to the HCM portfolio are already reflected in our tangible capital. Therefore, at the end of the quarter, there are no significant or recognized marks related to our HCM book. Please turn to slide 11. Our return on tangible equity was 11.5% in the quarter. Regulatory capital levels remain strong. Our common equity tier one ratio in Q1 of 16.7% increased by 34 basis points from Q4. Tangible book value per share at quarter end was $50.15, an increase of $5.18 per share, or almost 12% from Q4. This improvement is driven mostly by a favorable variance of 192 million in the next unrealized losses on securities oil for sale and quarterly net income of $159 million, partially offset by dividends declared in the quarter. Finally, touching on capital, we will revisit future capital actions in the second half of 2023. Our long-term outlook on capital return has not changed, anchored in our strong regulatory capital ratios. However, in the near term, We need to get more certainty on the outlook for rates and the economy, and also more clarity on the potential regulatory response to recent events in the banking sector. Over time, we expect our regulatory capital ratios to gravitate towards the levels of our mainland peers plus the buffer. With that, I turn the call over to Lidio.
spk06: Thank you, Carlos, and good morning. Overall, Topolar continues to reflect stable credit quality trends with low levels of net charge-off and decreasing MPLs. We remain encouraged by the performance of our loan book post-pandemic. Specifically, early delinquency, net charge-off, and non-performing loan inflows continue to trend significantly below pre-pandemic levels. Turning to slide number 12. Non-performing assets decreased by 24 million to 504 million this quarter, driven by an NPL decrease of $27 million due to lower mortgage and consumer NPLs in Puerto Rico offsetting part by an audio increase of $3 million. NPL inflows increased slightly quarter over quarter. At the end of the quarter, the ratio of NPLs to total loans held in portfolio decreased to 1.3% from 1.4% in the previous quarter. Turning to slide number 13. Net charge-off amounted to 33 million were analyzed for the one basis point of average loans held in portfolios compared to 31 million or 39 basis points in the prior quarter. The results for the quarter were impacted by a 10.5 million charge-off on a previously reserved loan. Excluding this, the net charge-off ratio will have been 28 basis points. Please turn to slide number 14. At the end of the first quarter, the ACL decreased by $31 million to $689 million. During the quarter, we implemented the new accounting guidance, which eliminated accounting for TBRs and the requirements to measure the effect of the concession from a loan modification. This impact resulted in a release in the ACL of approximately $46 million, driven by a mortgage TBR portfolio, which is presented as an adjustment to the beginning balance of return earnings net of tax effect. Excluding this impact, the ACL increased by $40 million driven by changes in the HBI forecast, higher loan volume, portfolio mix, and the migration of consumer credit scores. The provision for credit losses was $47 million compared to $48 million in the prior quarter. To summarize, our loan portfolio continues to exhibit strong credit quality trends in the first quarter, with low net charge-offs and decreasing non-performing loans. We remain attentive to the evolving environment, but remain encouraged by the post-pandemic performance of our loan book. We believe that improvement makes over time in the risk profile of the corporation's loan portfolio, positions popular to operate successfully on the more difficult economic conditions. Before I turn the call over to Javier, let me comment on Popular CRE's office segment exposure. The office segment is receiving a lot of attention in the current environment due to the shift to remote work and higher interest rates. In the case of Popular, our office exposure is limited, representing only 1.9% or $605 million of our total loan portfolio. The exposure is mainly comprised of low to mid-price property with average loan size of $2 million and is well diversified across tenant types. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Javier for his concluding remarks. Thank you.
spk07: Thank you, Lidia and Carlos, for your updates. Popular started off 2023 with a strong first quarter. building on the positive momentum generated in 2022. Our diversified business model and strong deposit base, robust regulatory capital and liquidity position are a source of strength which allow us to continue to meet our clients' needs as reflected by the growth in our customer base and loan portfolio during the quarter. We are optimistic about the opportunities that lie ahead and we remain vigilant around potential risks stemming from continued inflation and economic and market uncertainty. Economic trends in Puerto Rico continue to be positive, and a considerable amount of recovery funds yet to be disbursed are expected to support increased economic activity in future years. We made progress on our transformation initiatives during the quarter, which over time will drive more customer connectivity operational efficiencies, and greater potential for profitable growth and sustainable return on capital. I want to recognize and express our gratitude to our colleagues. It is their daily effort and commitment that lead to our customers' continued trust in Popular and our strong results. We are now ready to answer your questions.
spk05: We will now begin the QA session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your touch-tone keypad. If for any reason you would like to remove that question, please press star followed by two. Again, to ask a question, press star one. As a reminder, if you are using a speakerphone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking your question. We will pause here briefly to allow questions to generate and queue. The first question comes from the line of Brody Preston with UBS. Please proceed.
spk10: Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I was hoping maybe, Carlos, could we dive back into the net interest income, the FTE situation? So you, I guess... I'm trying to understand, so you're going to hold more cash at the Fed with both the Puerto Rican sub and the U.S. sub, and so that's resulting in lower levels of tax-exempt interest income, but is there, I guess, is there some gap NII impact there as well? I'm just getting a few questions about it. It just came across a little confusing.
spk08: No, I think your description is It's correct, Brody. You know, the cash we keep at the Fed earns taxable. It does for the bank in Puerto Rico, by the way, mostly. It does not apply to the bank in the States. It earns taxable income as opposed to when we hold treasury securities to a large extent in Puerto Rico. So our mix of taxable and non-taxable income shifts towards taxable So that results in a higher tax rate.
spk10: And will that get, I guess, will that strategy of holding higher levels of cash at the Puerto Rican sub, will that get reversed once we get clarity on liquidity in the economy? Or is that kind of like holding higher levels of cash through 2024, the expectations?
spk08: Well, at least for the moment, it's our choice, and we revisit that choice every week in our ALCO committee. You know, we'll see whether it continues to be our choice once the regulators express themselves.
spk10: Got it. Okay, so it seems like it's more conservatism at this point.
spk12: Yeah, go ahead, Jorge. Yeah, you asked a question about impacting GAAP NII. Given that the yield on cash overnight of the Fed versus short-term rates is not very different, we wouldn't expect a significant difference in GAAP NII from that shift. Certainly, our FTE NII will be affected because of that strategy.
spk10: Okay. And I guess from this strategy, how much on a quarterly basis is the FTE impacted?
spk12: That will be driven by everything else on our, you know, the deposit costs that are disallowed, et cetera. That's a little more complicated.
spk08: It's a little more complicated calculation, that one. Of course, it also depends on NOS 15 and its priority at the present level. And that, again, is revalued constantly.
spk10: Okay. But it's fair to say that, like, as deposit costs move higher, if you kept the same level of cash at the Fed, there would be an incremental drag on the fte nii that would be fair yes okay and on the fee income okay okay um on the on the fee income i just wanted to get a sense for for where you thought um that would shake out going forward and i'll stop there and i'll hop back in the queue um for my other questions
spk08: Our fee income is reasonably steady over a year, if you divide by four, but it's not necessarily steady on a quarter-by-quarter basis, so it tends to fluctuate a little bit up and down. We're happy to have started slightly ahead of our guidance 150 per quarter, but for the moment, we still think that guidance is applicable, and we'll revise it again depending on the results of the second quarter. to see if it is worth the change. So for the moment, we'll keep the guidance. We're very pleased that we're slightly ahead. Again, that number moves in both directions every quarter for many different reasons because of the many lines that are in there.
spk10: OK. And could you just remind me, Carlos, it looks like in the other service fees, there's third quarter upward seasonality that'll come through. That's still the expectation, right?
spk08: That's the insurance. We get contingent insurance commissions paid once or twice a year. It depends on the insurance company that we're dealing with. It tends to be in the second half of the year. I don't remember if it's exactly a third quarter, Brody, but it tends to be in the second half of the year. Of course, the other thing that has to happen is that the insurance market has to behave nicely for them to to pay the contingent fees. That would be second half of the year.
spk10: Got it. Okay. Thank you very much. I'll hop back in the queue.
spk05: Thank you. The next question comes from Delano to Mayor Brasileiro with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
spk13: Hi. Good morning. Morning. How are you? Good appreciate the comments on the expected range of public funds kind of 14 to 16 billion exiting the year. Maybe talking to second quarter specifically can you just give an update on the magnitude of seasonal inflows you're expecting in the quarter kind of timing of those and then ultimately. where we could expect GAAP, NIM, and NII to kind of bottom out before starting the ramp higher in the back end of the year to your comments?
spk08: Yes. Well, in the second quarter, we have tax revenues. So as I think we mentioned before, we expect government buses to go up this quarter. And we've seen some of that. We already mentioned that. Deposits are up $700 million so far this quarter. So what is harder for me to tell you is exactly if they're going to end higher than, because that depends on what the government chooses to do with their money, which is not our decision. Historically, they have tended to be higher in the second quarter and then gravitate down in the second half of the year. What was your question on NIM again, Gemma?
spk13: Just if you can provide any kind of magnitude on where NIM or NII could bottom in 2Q prior to resuming the ramp higher in the back end of the year.
spk08: No, we usually don't give guidance on that type of detail. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we still expect NIM to take an upward trend again this year. The difficult part of that is that it depends on how the things I mentioned interact that we'll be able to find all this timing on when it's going to shift. So it's going to be a pace of increasing rates, loan growth and loan mix, and also deposit balances and mix. And how those three things interact is what results in the ultimate NIM. So we still think it's going to revert to an expansion mode this year. But for the timing, we have not spoken over the timing.
spk13: Okay. And then maybe one for Lidio. Excluding the impact of 2022-02, allowance levels continue to build despite the broader trends on the island improving. Can you maybe talk about some of the levers that were pulled within the portfolio changes that called for incremental allowance and, you know, what do you need to see prior to releasing some of the incremental allowance and getting closer to a level, you know, maybe not where mainland piers are, but at least starting to trend in that direction?
spk06: What I think is a lot of different levels that were at play during this quarter. As we mentioned, we have been doing good in terms of volume, so the volume increase play a role, a small role in terms of increasing allowance. The economic scenario also plays a small role in terms of the increasing allowance. Then you also have volume mix. We changed, we gravitated to some of our higher allowance portfolio that also had a gradual impact in allowance. We've also seen some gravitation, some consumer score that also had a small impact in the allowance. So it's a combination of a lot of small things. So it's the interplay of all of that and the continued low performance of net charge jobs that will dictate allowance going forward. And the link. Okay, thanks.
spk13: Great and just last for me, maybe back to Carlos, can you provide an update on merchant acquiring and the revenue share component, how that's trending and maybe an outlook for both 23 and 24 there?
spk08: Well, we don't break out that number, Timur, but we did talk about the volume of credit and debit cards going up 9% versus the same quarter last year. it will go down versus the last quarter because it's seasonal, as you know. So, you know, the business keeps growing. We're getting a share of that. So, I presume the number is going up, but we don't have, and I don't think we disclosed in detail that number. Thank you. I'll step back.
spk05: Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Alex Turtle. Piper Sandler, please proceed.
spk09: Hey, good morning.
spk08: Good morning.
spk09: First off, I was wondering if you can give us an update on expectations for loan balance outlook over the next couple quarters.
spk08: Up? No, I mean, I'm sorry. As you know, we don't give specific loan balance... Guidance, we did say that we expect low growth this year, and we are seeing that, but we also expect it to be at a lower pace than we saw last year, and we're seeing that as well. So the first quarter was a good quarter. It was a bit quieter than the first quarter last year, obviously. Hopefully, as the economy locally, Puerto Rico particularly, continues to grow, AND MORE PROJECTS COME ONLINE, WE'LL HAVE MORE OPPORTUNITIES TO CLOSE THE LINE. SO HOPEFULLY IT GETS BETTER AS THE YEAR GOES ALONG. I DO NOT THINK EVEN WHEN IT GETS BETTER THAT IT WILL COME TO MATCH LAST YEAR'S GROWTH.
spk09: OKAY. AND DO YOU THINK GROWTH COMES FROM BASICALLY ALL CATEGORIES AS YOU SAW IN THE FIRST QUARTER?
spk08: So far, that's what we've seen in Puerto Rico, and that's actually been true since the middle of last year, Alex. So it probably will continue to be in most categories. But dollar terms, obviously, the category that carries the day is commercial. So in dollars, it's going to be mostly commercial, but we probably will see most categories continue to grow. You know, auto is growing a bit less, a bit slower than it did last year. And we'll see how the year evolves. So there is the effect of higher rates and how that affects the appetite of people for loans. We'll have to see how that plays out during the year as well.
spk09: OK. And to that last point on rates and appetite, can you give us a sense for where new loan yields are relative to the existing portfolio for commercial primarily?
spk08: I mean, the best we can do on that, Alex, is on our levels on yields on the press release. You have loan yields by category, and you can see the variation from last quarter to this quarter. We don't provide any more detail on yields than that.
spk09: Okay. Can you, in the slide deck on the deposit slide, can you just help us understand exactly what's happening in the commercial deposits as well as the government deposits towards the end of the quarter? It looks like those rates took down a little bit.
spk08: Yeah. I'll explain commercial, and one of my colleagues here will explain the public sector. In the commercial, it's actually quite simple. We had a large relationship with a deposit aggregator that exited. We exited in early February, and that was a very high cost. So the cost actually did, that contributed to the cost actually coming down in February and March. So that was an actual transaction decision that we did that affected that one. On the public deposits.
spk11: Hey, Alex. It's Paul. So on the public deposits, or for all the charts, we actually provide the data points as part of the analysis on a monthly basis. And so given a variety of inputs, including day count and average balances and whatnot, the calculation does move around a little bit, along with the lagged effect of the repricing. If you look back prior in that chart, what you can see is it does jump around a little bit during certain time periods, even when the at least the comparative chart of the Fed funds is is moving directionally. So that's all that this is. We do expect that those that every pricing has not yet been completed. And we talked about sort of another 60 basis points roughly in the in the second quarter.
spk09: OK, that's helpful. And then with respect to the NIM commentary about resuming an upward trajectory, is there a scenario where that could happen in the second quarter?
spk08: If you move around in your model, the three things I mentioned, face of interest, rate increases, loan growth and mix, and deposit balances and mix, I'm sure there's a number of possible combinations that will give you a higher NIM in the second quarter. But, you know, it depends on how those three things move.
spk09: Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.
spk08: Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Kelly Motta with KBW. Please proceed.
spk03: Hi. Thanks for the question. I think I'll carry on with that, at least a portion of that NIM question. Carlos, one of the things that you had mentioned was you're carrying higher balances at the Fed, just out of conservatism. Do you mind sharing what you guys view as an appropriate level of cash to have on hand right now, and what are the things we should be looking for to toggle that either up or down? Do you need clarity from the regulators in order to take that down? Just interested in what we should be looking for. as we think about the liquidity number ahead.
spk08: Yeah. I mean, to a large extent, what you see in our Fed account in our cash position right now is a lot of the maturities that happened in our investment portfolio in the first quarter minus the loan growth that we had for the quarter. So the outcome of those two things the number in there. Now, we'll keep watching this closely and evaluating the environment on an ongoing basis, Kelly. So, I mean, we're not running it on the basis of a target amount of cash necessarily. We are running the business and the business results in an amount of cash. What we did decide in the first quarter was to allow the portfolio to mature without reinvesting or extending it again. Again, that is a discussion that we have in our weekly ALCO meetings, and we evaluate all the parts and come to conclusions on a dynamic basis. So there isn't a target. The level where we are at this sort of seems to make sense to us. You know, it's not a tough decision because at this point in time, the yield in cash is not bad. So it's not a horrible decision to have cash at the Fed. So we'll keep looking at it. You know, can that position double? Unlikely. Will that position be half of what it is? Unlikely. But it will probably gravitate around where it is. And, you know, if we make... a decision to pre-invest or move some of the cash to the investment portfolio. It will not change the characteristics of our cash position because some of that will be T-bills, but it will change the nature of our tax position.
spk03: Understood. I appreciate the color. Thinking about the buyback, In order to get more comfort with the buyback, do you think the board needs the regulators to come out with additional guidelines on that front with what's gone on in March? Just any sort of color as to what could get you guys more interested in buying back stock here.
spk08: Yeah, I mean, what we described in October is that we wanted more clarity on rates and the economy so that we could be more informed in making any decision on capital return, and that we thought that clarity may be available by the summer. Frankly, I'm not sure we have significantly more clarity now than we had then. So hopefully we get clarity by the summer, but I'm not sure we're there yet. I think the more important thing is what you mentioned, which we have added to those two considerations, the consideration of regulatory changes. If anybody guessed exactly what the regulators will come up with, we do not know. But we will be attentive to how they are moving. Um, you know, we definitely don't want to be in a position where we do something and there's a word, the announcement a month later, and it makes our life much more difficult because we did something that moved us in the wrong direction. Um, uh, so, you know, we'll be, uh, uh, we'll be looking at all these things. Um, you know, it's hard to gauge right now, whether there's will come out, uh, Kelly. So, uh, we're, we're paying attention and listening. So it's three things now that we're waiting to get some clarity on that too. So we'll just see how those evolve.
spk03: Got it. And just to sneak a last one in on the capital front is the dividend. We had discussions about the buyback. You usually have a dividend raised in 2Q. I think that's part of your capital, hold capital discussion, but wondering if there's any updated, even if a buyback isn't in the cards necessarily, are you still thinking about the dividend the same way in any target for a payout ratio on that?
spk08: We tend to work the two things together. But you're right in pointing out they don't have to be together. So it's something that we will continue to consider. Again, I think probably step back for a minute. The more important point to make is our long-term view on capital hasn't changed. We still expect over time that our capital ratios will go in the direction of our mainland peers plus a spread. But that is over time. That doesn't mean every quarter in a perfect sequence, number one. And number two, now we have the added uncertainty that we have no idea where our peers will be required to be if the rules change. So we have to keep those things in mind.
spk03: Great. I'll step back. Thank you so much for the questions.
spk04: Thank you.
spk05: The next question comes from Brett Roberton with Hope Group. Please proceed.
spk02: Hey, guys. Good morning. This is Brian calling for Brett. I just wanted to go quickly back to deposits. I appreciate the detail in the liquidity deposits slides you added. It looks like demand deposits decreased similarly to what we saw last quarter. Do you guys expect a steady makeshift over into interest-bearing accounts from DDA? And then on the deposit beta as well, you mentioned that most of the segments are at or above their prior cycle deposit beta. And you guys on the island maintain an advantage to the mainland, but just wanted to know if you expect those betas to increase notably above the prior cycle. Thanks.
spk08: Yeah, on demand deposits, I think that the message in demand deposits, Brian, is that they've been very steady, actually. And we have seen, as I mentioned, some commercial clients and some high net worth clients seek higher yields. We have also been successful when the clients are in that position. to help them achieve that without leaving the relationship or shrinking the relationship with us. We had increasing assets under management of public securities of over $450 million in the first quarter, which is exactly that. But the fact that that happened and you see that demand deposits from the fourth to the first quarter were flat means that somebody else brought in $450 million. Demand deposits have been quite steady, actually. Most of the volatility we've seen in volume or levels have been in our interest-bearing accounts. And as you know, some of the big chunks or big movements happen in our public sector accounts that are large depositors, right? And I'm sorry, but I missed the second part of your question, Brian.
spk02: Just on the deposit betas compared to the prior cycle.
spk08: Well, you know, we've seen deposit betas accelerate, as probably every bank in the country has, as the rates have gone up so fast and so high. So we are above the last cycle. So I don't think we have to the chances are that the betas for all banks will probably end up higher than the last cycle in this cycle just because of the speed and magnitude of how the Fed raised rates. So that's probably what's going to end up happening. Specifically in our case, it's hard to tell. When you look at, for example, a big chunk of our deposit business, which is retail and commercial in Puerto Rico, continues to have a sub-10% beta. So, you know, Overall, betas will accelerate, I think is our view. They are already above the last cycle. There's a reasonable chance the terminal beta will be higher than the last cycle, but there is pieces of our business that continue to show a lot of strength, particularly the non-public pricing in Puerto Rico.
spk02: All right, great. Thanks for all the color. That's it for me. Thanks.
spk05: Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC. Please proceed.
spk01: Hi. Good morning, everyone. This is Thomas Luddy calling on behalf of Gerard. A couple of quarters ago, you guys mentioned that you had not seen any new entrants into the market for lending in PR, such as from mainland banks that haven't historically been as active there. But you thought you might see some increased competition for some of the big pending infrastructure projects there. Has that dynamic changed at all in light of recent events and any additional call you can provide there?
spk08: I don't think it changed very much. It really is the size of the investment is important, obviously, because not every bank can make every size loan. But when you have foreign operators that come into Puerto Rico to run a public-private partnership, for example, They have worldwide banking relationships and those relationships arrive to Puerto Rico with them. In almost every instance, they want a local bank with our experience and capabilities to help them. So we end up either leading or being an important part of any effort to finance those kind of projects. So I don't think it's a change from what we've experienced in the past. And hopefully some of these projects will get going pretty soon. a number of the public-private partnerships that are supposed to be closer to realization now than they were months ago, and if those happen, that would be a welcome event.
spk07: I just want to add to Carlos' comments that, in fact, we are, I can say, engaged in those PPP projects, so we expect to have those come to fruition if the government moves quickly this year. So we will play an important part in those financings as we expected prior.
spk01: Okay, great. Thank you. And then just a quick follow-up. High level, obviously credit quality remains pretty strong. What trends in credit are you guys watching most closely today? And how have those changed over the past couple quarters?
spk06: I will say... the performance and the shift in the FICO mix of our books, and the performance of the small and medium enterprises in our commercial books. Those will be the two particular elements that we're watching closely.
spk01: Okay, thank you.
spk05: Thank you. We have a follow-up question from the line of Brody Preston with EBS. Please proceed.
spk10: Hey guys, just had a couple quick follow ups. I did want to touch on the consumer line of credit charge off that you called out. I wanted to clarify, it was called a line of credit. I just wanted to ask if that was one line of credit or if that was multiple lines of credit.
spk06: It was one line of credit. It is a legacy one-off type of relationship that shouldn't recur in the future.
spk10: Got it. Okay. And then I did want to ask one on the the deposit mix. You guys outperform the industry, you know, by a wide margin on non interest bearing. So just want to get a sense for what your conversations look like with customers around rates, particularly as it relates to like, you know, any level of excess funds that might be in DDAs? Or do you feel like the non interest bearing mix can be relatively steady from here?
spk08: Yeah, I mean, we have the discussions every day. The best way I can answer that question, Brody, is that we've been having those discussions for the last two quarters, and the results are the results. So despite the fact that we're having those discussions, that we have clients moving cash, seeking higher yields, you know, we still were able to successfully maintain, you know, stable demand deposit balances. That does not mean that some money did not move. As I said, we can track specifically $450 million of those monies that moved to our broker dealer. But, you know, clearly we successfully found another $450 million of demand deposits that showed up and joined the bank. So far, we've been able to manage those interests of higher yields from our clients successfully. We're keeping the relationship. We're serving the client. By the way, we've been here before, and those flows go back the other way when rates come down. So the important thing here is to keep the relationship so that when rates come down, the money does flow back into the bank. So, I mean, that's the best, my best guess. Javier, you want?
spk07: I just want to add that we saw a very strong new deposit account opening numbers for the first quarter in Puerto Rico, including non-interest bearing accounts. So, I just wanted to clarify that very high compared to private quarters.
spk08: I'll tell you, our net new account opening in the first quarter was higher than it's been for a couple of years.
spk07: Yep, since 2021, since the first quarter of 2021. Got it.
spk10: All right.
spk04: Thank you very much for the call, everyone. I appreciate it. Thank you. We have a follow-up question from Delano to Mayor Brasile with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
spk11: Hello? Tim, are you there?
spk13: Tim? Yes, sorry about that. I had you on mute. Thanks for the follow-up. One last one for me on the expense base. Appreciate the color on the reduction in the first quarter and the expectation for it to ramp higher as the year goes. Any additional commentary on the cadence of that increase to get to that unchanged guidance level? And then secondarily, if you can provide any kind of color as to what type of internal budget you're using for this year's profit-sharing initiative.
spk08: Okay. On the second question, you know, there is personally no incorporation of any profit-sharing in our numbers or our forward-looking. So nothing on that is in our numbers or our forward-looking outlook at this point in time. on your first question. It's tough to tell because it depends on when the projects get going and when the people that are helping us in this project actually bill us. So I would assume that it will be straight line up. That would be my best assumption right now in the next three quarters to reach the goal. But, you know, it's the best I can do. I have a colleague here telling me what. So that is my, you know, do it straight line in your model. It's probably not going to be far from the truth.
spk12: I'll just clarify, we don't, we do accrue based on service that's provided and we don't wait for these bills.
spk08: Okay. But of course. And then I guess once those projects.
spk13: I'm sorry? I guess once those projects start to ramp up, is the expectation going forward that those expenses remain on or is it going to be as lumpy as we've seen in the first quarter?
spk08: Well, it will depend on the project, Brody. Sorry, Timur. It will depend on the project. I don't think there's a global answer to your question.
spk12: You know, the project and the number of projects that are ongoing at the same time. We're just moving from the theory and the planning to execution. That's just how quickly we can get all those plans going.
spk04: Okay.
spk12: Thank you.
spk04: Thank you. Again, to ask a question, please press star 1.
spk05: We'll pause here briefly to allow questions to generate in queue. there are no additional questions at this time. I will now hand the call back over to Javier Ferrer for closing remarks.
spk07: Thanks again for joining us and for your questions today. We look forward to updating you on our progress in July. Thank you.
spk04: That concludes today's conference call. Thank you. You may now disconnect your lines.
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