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spk14: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the BRP, Inc.' 's Fiscal Year 2024 Third Quarter Results Conference Call. For participants who use the telephone line, it is recommended to turn off the sound on your device. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Philippe Deschaines. Please go ahead.
spk04: Thank you, Sylvie. Good morning and welcome to BRP's Conference Call for the Third Quarter of Fiscal Year 2024. Joining me this morning are José Boisjoli, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sébastien Martel, Chief Financial Officer. Before we move to the prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that certain forward-looking statements will be made during the call and that the actual result could differ from those implied in these statements. The forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions and is subject to risk and uncertainties, and I invite you to consult BRP's MD&A for a complete list of these. Also during the call, reference will be made to supporting slides, and you can find the presentation on our website at brp.com under the investor relations section. So with that, I'll turn the call over to José. Thank you, Philippe.
spk05: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. BRP delivered a sound performance in the third quarter as our team continued to demonstrate its commitment and resilience in a dynamic environment. we maintained our momentum in gaining market share in the off-road category and delivered financial results that came in close to our expectations. However, like the rest of the industry and despite our continued solid execution, we are seeing signs of softening demand in certain product categories, more particularly in international markets. The situation leads us to proactively take a more cautious approach for the upcoming quarters as we strive to maintain a solid value proposition for our dealers. We remain committed to continue to lead our industry and to further grow our market share. We believe that our proactive action will further solidify BRP position for long-term success. Let's turn to slide four for key financial highlight of the quarter. Revenue reached $2.5 billion below our expectation due to softer demand in international markets and, to a lesser extent, a temporary slowdown at the Texas-Mexico borders, which impacted deliveries of side-by-side and ETV over three weeks, near to the end of the quarter. This situation is now back to normal. With a strong product mix, and tight expense management, we've still delivered normalized EBITDA of $445 million and normalized diluted EPS of $3.06, both coming in close to our expectation. Turning to slide five for a look at our retail performance. In North America, our retail sales were about flat, with continued solid growth in ORV and snowmobile, offset by decline in personal watercraft, pontoon and three-wheel due to a different timing of shipment this year compared to last. As you may remember, supply chain issue last year forced us to ship late in these product categories. It resulted in stronger than usual revenue and stronger retail in the third quarter of fiscal year 23, impacting the year-over-year compatibility. Excluding these affected categories, our retail sales were up 21% compared to an industry that was up mid-single digit. Our performance at retail continued to be strong in Latin America, with a 30% growth. Demand was softer in Asia Pacific and EMEA, but we still outperformed the market in the latter. Also, We are expecting very low shipment in the short term in the Middle East countries affected by the conflict. Turning to slide six, we see that we have continued to gain share since the beginning of the year in the North American power support market. Since fiscal year 16, we have gained 17 points of market share to reach approximately 37%. More than one out of three products sold at retail is a BRP product. We have outperformed the industry in ORV, snowmobile, and personal aircraft, which shows the strength and the diversity of our product portfolio. Moving to slide seven.
spk14: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the BRP Inc.' 's Fiscal Year 2024 Third Quarter Results Conference Call. For participants who use the telephone line, it is recommended to turn off the sound on your device. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Philippe Deschaines. Please go ahead.
spk04: Thank you, Sylvie. Good morning and welcome to BRP's conference call for the third quarter of fiscal year 24. Joining me this morning are José Boisjoli, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sébastien Martel, Chief Financial Officer. Before we move to the prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that result could differ from those implied in these statements. The forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions and is subject to risk and uncertainties, and I invite you to consult BRP's MD&A for a complete list of these. Also during the call, reference will be made to supporting slides, and you can find the presentation on our website at brp.com under the investor relations section. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Jose.
spk05: Thank you, Philipp. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. BRP delivered a sound performance in the third quarter as our team continued to demonstrate its commitment and resilience in a dynamic environment. We maintained our momentum in gaining market share in the off-road category and delivered financial results that came in close to our expectations. However, like the rest of the industry and despite our continued solid execution, We are seeing signs of softening demand in certain product categories, more particularly in international markets. The situation leads us to proactively take a more cautious approach for the upcoming quarters as we strive to maintain a solid value proposition for our dealers. We remain committed to continue to lead our industry and to further grow our market share. We believe that our proactive action will further solidify BRP position for long-term success. Let's turn to slide four for key financial highlight of the quarter. Revenue reached $2.5 billion below our expectation due to softer demand in international markets and, to a lesser extent, a temporary slowdown at the Texas-Mexico borders which impacted deliveries of side-by-side and ETV over three weeks, near to the end of the quarter. This situation is now back to normal. With a strong product mix and tight expense management, we've still delivered normalized EBITDA of $445 million and normalized diluted EPS of $3.06, both coming in close to our expectation. Turning to slide five for a look at our retail performance. In North America, our retail sales were about flat, with continued solid growth in ORV and snowmobile, offset by decline in personal aircraft, pontoon, and three-wheel, due to a different timing of shipment this year compared to last. As you may remember, supply chain issue last year forced us to ship late in these product categories. It resulted in stronger than usual revenue and stronger retail in the third quarter of fiscal year 23, impacting the year-over-year compatibility. Excluding these affected categories, our retail sales were up 21% compared to an industry that was up mid-single digit. Our performance at retail continued to be strong in Latin America, with a 30% growth. Demand was softer in Asia Pacific and EMEA, but we still outperformed the market in the latter. Also, we are expecting very low shipment in the short term in the Middle East countries affected by the conflict. Turning to slide six, we see that we have continued to gain share since the beginning of the year in the North American power support market. Since fiscal year 16, we have gained 17 points of market share to reach approximately 37%. More than one out of three products sold at retail is a BRP product. We have outperformed the industry in ORV, snowmobile, and personal aircraft, which shows the strength and the diversity of our product portfolio. Moving to slide seven. At the beginning of the quarter in August and September, year-over-year growth remained positive in line with the trend observed in recent quarters. However, since October, we have started to see incremental signs that the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is affecting the industry. As you can see, if we zoom in on the ORV market, demand began to soften in all regions with more important decline in EMEA and Asia-Pacific. This trend is continuing into November. Reflecting this situation and considering the macroeconomic environment, we are proactively adjusting our wholesale shipment plan for the coming quarters. This scenario is reflected in the updated guidance that Sébastien will discuss in a moment. Now, let's turn to slide eight for year-round product. Revenue were down 8% to $1.2 billion. The decline was primarily driven by the different timing of shipment of three-wheel vehicle compared to last year and the temporary border slowdown, which impacted ORV shipments. At retail, Can-Am side-by-side had another very strong quarter, with retail up low 10%, notably driven by solid market share gain in the utility segment. All industry growth came from the premium vehicle category. This market dynamic is very favorable for Can-Am, given our significant market share in higher-end models. As for ATV, our retail was up mid-single-digit, led by strong growth in the mid-CC segment, driven by the success of our newly introduced Outlander platform. We are pleased with the momentum of our off-road business. The strength of our lineup put us in a good position to continue outperforming the industry. Looking at three-wheel vehicles, we ended season 23 with retail down low single-digit compared to an industry that was up low single-digit. The slight decline came from the Riker. While consumer interests remain high, entry-level buyers have been more resilient lately, hesitant lately, sorry. Meanwhile, the Spyder F3 and RT higher-end model have experienced positive momentum throughout the year. Turning to seasonal product on slide nine. Revenue were down 15% to $869 million, primarily due to the exceptional high level of shipment last year and as previously explained. Looking at our retail performance, we are very pleased with the success of our SEDU product line. We completed season 23 in North America with an outstanding performance for SEDU leading to an all-time high market share. Furthermore, we ended the season with the number one market position in all the segments in which we compete and the number one position in all province and state. As far as Sea-Doo Pantoon, retail was up over 200% for the season. We ended with the number three market position in the U.S., but very close to the first two players. In Canada, we estimate that we finished the season with a solid mid-20% market share. Turning to Snowmobile. While still relatively early, we are off to a very good start with our strongest season-to-date retail in the last 10 years. Looking ahead, retail trends for snowmobiles are positive, and we are well positioned with a strong level of pre-sold units. Moving to slide 10, with power sports, parts, accessories, and apparel and OEM engines. Revenue were up 6% to $315 million, notably driven by higher sales of aircraft engine and pinion gearbox. We also continued to benefit from a growing product portfolio and a larger vehicle fleet in use, which led to higher sales of replacement parts and accessories driven by the LINQ ecosystem. We are notably seeing solid trend for the new Mavic R, with buyer adding many accessories to their... This trend demonstrates the benefit of developing highly integrated accessories, which are available right at the level of the vehicle. Moving to marine on slide 11. Revenue were down 6% to $104 million due to a lower volume of boat shipment. In general, dealers have high inventory and with higher financing costs, they remain cautious about accepting deliveries during the off-season. Looking at retail sales, from an industry perspective, we continue to see the category being more impacted by higher interest rates. For Q3, Manitou Retail was down low 20%, and Alu Makaraf down mid-30%. As for Quintrex, although it's still early in the season in Australia, retail was up low single digit. I am proud that our new Quintrex boat, the Freestyler X, won a good design award in Australia. This prize illustrates the strong appeal and excellence of our new boat design and technology. This is the main reason why we remain confident about the potential of our marine business for the coming years despite current industry challenges. With that, I turn the call over to Sébastien.
spk09: Thank you, José, and good morning, everyone. While our top line performance for the quarter fell short of our expectations due to lower deliveries resulting from an unforeseen slowdown at the Texas-Mexico border, Our continued focus on efficiency and cost management helps us generate solid margins, which, coupled with a favorable tax rate, allow us to deliver a normalized EPS roughly aligned with our projections. Looking at the numbers, we reported revenues of $2.5 billion, a decrease of 9% compared to last year, primarily due to the different timing of shipments and slower deliveries of ORV products as previously discussed. We generated $627 million of gross profit, representing a margin of 25.4, up 120 basis points from last year, primarily driven by a positive pricing impact net of cost inflation. Lower turbulent costs, a favorable product mix. These benefits were probably offset by less efficient use of our assets due to lower volume than expected. marine business inefficiencies, higher sales program, and unfavorable foreign exchange rate variations in the quarter, which impacted margins by 120 basis points. Moving further down the P&L, we generated normalized dividends for the quarter of $445 million, representing a strong margin of 18%. And our normalized net income reached $238 million, resulting in a normalized earnings per share, of $3.06. Looking at the cash flow, we generated $695 million of pre-cash flow so far this year, of which we returned $409 million to our shareholders through dividends and by completing our NCIB, repurchasing a total of 3.5 million shares. Moving to an overview of our network inventory on slide 14. Our network inventory remains balanced at the end of the third quarter, only up 24% versus pre-COVID level, while our retail is up 43% over the same period. Still, despite improved days of inventory in the network, we are cognizant of the mounting pressure that our dealers face, particularly due to high inventory values and increasing floor plan financing costs. In this context, and in response to recent industry trends and the mounting macroeconomic pressures affecting our consumer behaviors, we have decided to proactively adjust our production schedules. This decision is aimed at ensuring our dealers' inventory remains aligned with prevailing market conditions in order to protect our dealers' value proposition and make sure that our mutual success is sustained. Turning to slide 15 for an update on our guidance. As we look at the fourth quarter, we expect to continue outperforming the industry, especially as we accelerate shipment of the new Maverick RSport side-by-side and the new ATV Outlander mid-CC platform, as we sustain our momentum and utility side-by-side, and as we progress through the snowmobile season, which is already off to a good start. However, given the aforementioned challenging industry and macroeconomic backdrop, we have adjusted our shipment plan for the remainder of the year and are revising our guidance accordingly. For fiscal 24, we now project total company sales to be up 4% to 5%. From a profitability standpoint, the realignment of our production schedule to this new shipment plan is generating some short-term inefficiencies, which, coupled with higher sales program, we expect will impact margins in the fourth quarter. As a result, we now project normalized EBITDA to be flat to up 2% for the year and normalized EPS to end between 1110 and 1135. Note that our results include a headwind of about $1.40 coming from higher depreciation and financing costs over the last year as we continue to invest to generate future growth and we are impacting by higher interest rate levels. As we approach the next few quarters with a more cautious stance, we are committed to staying agile and efficient and to continue diligently managing our expense, all the while continuing to set solid foundations for the long-term future of our business. We strongly believe our organization is well positioned to continue outperforming the industry and emerge from this cycle even stronger. On that, I will turn the call over to Jose.
spk05: Thank you, Sébastien. I want to take a moment to share the success of the second edition of our Yellow Day. Last year, we chose intimidation as our global cause. On November 17, we rallied our employees, dealers, ambassadors, riders, and partners to take a stand against all forms of intimidation. Our entire network embraced the cause and joined in our global movement, which makes me very proud. In conclusion, with the strength of our lineups, we continue to deliver robust market share gain over the last 12 months. However, like the rest of the industry, we are seeing softer demand in certain regions. Although we anticipate a few challenging quarters, we remain positive. We are known to be agile and we will make the appropriate adjustments as needed. Since we became BRP 20 years ago, we have never shied away from investing in our future to build a resilient organization that is geared up to respond to market fluctuations. I am confident in our long-term strategy. With our commitment to operational excellence and constant investment in innovation, we are managing the business for continuing success. I am proud of our employees and I thank them for their relentless effort. I also acknowledge our dealers for their support. Together, we'll continue to deliver market-shaping products and remain the number one OEM in the industry. On that note, I turn the call over to the operator for questions.
spk14: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Please note that out of consideration for all callers today, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by 1 on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. And if you would like to withdraw from the question queue, simply press star followed by 2. And note that if you're using a speakerphone, you will need to lift the handset before pressing any keys. Please go ahead and press star 1 now if you have any questions. And your first question will be from Craig Kennison at Baird. Please go ahead.
spk06: Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. So I guess I'm not surprised at all that you're seeing a slowdown given the macro environment. I'm just curious what you think happened in October and November that wasn't part of the ecosystem in prior months. It's just surprising to me that maybe it just happened so quickly.
spk05: Good morning, Craig. As you know, we're monitoring uh constantly consumer demand and the macroeconomic environment and h1 was in line with our projection and it continued in august and september but october the decline the decline happened in almost all markets but especially international and the trend is continuing in november at least with our numbers then We believe that dealers have adequate level of inventory, and you survey dealers often, and you know that they have pressure on the higher inventory costs. So considering the macro environment, you know, the European and APAC situation, don't forget there is two conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East, and the dealer challenges and the industry trend. then proactively we decided to adjust the shipment for the coming quarter. And all of this is in the context of we continue to gain share. We believe we have enough inventory out there in the network to continue our momentum. But we want to be more cautious to make sure that we protect the value proposition. And we are convinced this is the right thing to do for the long term. Thank you.
spk14: Thank you. Next question will be from Robin Farley at UBS. Please go ahead.
spk12: Great. Thanks. I wonder if you have any thoughts about the M25 targets that you have out there, your longer-term targets, and if you see those as impacted or think that they could still be intact. You had talked last quarter about even if the revenue didn't get there, the EBITDA still could. So just wondering how you're thinking about those. And then also, I don't know if you quantified in your comments there. You definitely talked about the outlook softening. Would you kind of put a ballpark quantifying your expectations for retail in North America in Q4 and into 2024, kind of what your current expectations are now with the reset? Thanks.
spk05: Good morning, Robyn. First, on the M25, the initiatives are not changing. They are the same. Our focus is the same. But obviously, like I just explained, with the recent industry trend in North America and international and the macroeconomic environment, we're now working with more conservative industry numbers going forward. We want to be, again, responsible and we proactively reduce shipment to improve the inventory turn. And we believe that fiscal year 25 revenue could be down next year. And at this point with the trend we're seeing, we don't expect to achieve the M25 target as planned. Now, again, I would like to remind you that we're well positioned with the inventory we have to continue to gain market share. And we target to remain the OEM of choice. And on this, I will give the mic to Sébastien just to give you an idea about the numbers.
spk09: Yeah, good morning, Robin. And it is obviously still early, and we still have a few months to go before we firm up the assumptions for the planning for next year. But generally, we are expecting a softer industry. And from a profitability standpoint, heading into next year, obviously, we expect demand for premium products to remain strong. And that obviously is going to help from a mixed perspective. And we do expect our marine business to be stronger as well next year as we've had challenges with the ramp up of production and that impacted profitability. However, despite these benefits, we do expect some offsets, again, with lower volume, less efficient use of assets, probably higher sales programs as well, because we are seeing other OEMs running with higher inventory and also higher promotional environment. And also, again, we invest in the business, so we should expect higher depreciation as well next year. OPEX will probably run higher as well as a percentage of revenue than we did this year. We are continuing to invest in growth projects. So all in all, when you combine all of these elements with a softer revenue, we could lose a point or so of EBITDA margin compared to this year. Again, as Josée mentioned, the strength of our lineups, our brand, we are super well positioned and we expect the fundamentals of M25 to continue generating growth for us, especially market share gains. But we believe we are taking the right actions to support our dealer. And also, we prefer obviously retailing current products than non-current products. And that's why we are diligent in managing inventory.
spk12: Great. That's a very helpful color for next year. Thank you.
spk14: Thank you. Next question will be from James Hardiman at Citi. Please go ahead.
spk18: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my call, and I think that was a really good color on sort of next year, obviously. Nobody's going to hold you to that. It's pretty early. But I think you mentioned a softer industry for next year. Just to clarify, is that softer than previously expected or you actually expect the industry to be down next year? And if so, what does that mean for how you think about your own retail in fiscal 25?
spk09: Yeah, well, as I said, we still got a few months to go before we firm up the assumptions for guidance next year. But given the macroeconomic and political backdrop there, we expect the industry to be down next year. But we'll give you more color when we talk in too far on our results and the guidance for next year.
spk18: Okay. But to clarify, you think the industry will be down? Do you think your own retail will be down, or do you think? market share gains will be more than enough to offset that.
spk09: Still early to give any color for next year. We'll obviously monitor how the situation is evolving in the fourth quarter, and that's obviously going to be a big driver as to how we set up for next year.
spk05: But we're confident to continue to gain market share. With the strength of our lineup, with the trend, with the premium, we're confident to continue our momentum with market share.
spk18: Makes sense. And then on the inventory front, you know, it sounds like days on hand are lower than they were pre-pandemic. Could you maybe quantify what that number was and how that compares to pre-pandemic? Just trying to get a feel for what we should expect for the end of this year and whether or not we should be factoring in any sort of inventory corrections as we look at fiscal 25?
spk09: Today, as we mentioned there, when you look at our inventory returns, they're healthier than pre-COVID, but we want to operate with higher inventory returns than pre-COVID, and dealers as well want that. The expectation for this year is that inventory at the end of Q4 will probably be flat to up single-digit versus where we are at Q3. Obviously, very dependent on how the snowmobile season will evolve, but it's off to a good start. Next year, some of the wholesale adjustments that we will do will be as a result of managing the inventory in the network. If you were to ask me, Seb, would you want inventory to be lower at the end of next year than it is today? It's certainly something that I'd like to see because, as I said, we prefer retailing current products than non-current products. And so given the current backdrop and the softness in the market, running with leaner inventory is beneficial for us because less programs and beneficial for the dealers as well because less discounts.
spk18: Got it. If I may ask, that was the follow-up, but I may ask a follow-up to the follow-up.
spk00: Yeah. Yeah.
spk18: Do you think your peers will see the current environment in much the same way? It seems like there's maybe risk that if you're taking a really conservative approach and hoping to finish next year with lower levels of inventory, if your peers aren't doing the same, then you could ultimately, A, lose market share, but B, still feel the effects of a dealer channel that feels like it has too much inventory.
spk05: But I don't want to predict what the peers are doing or will do, but one thing I can tell you, pre-COVID, we had less inventory than our competitor, and we've been gaining shares since fiscal year 16. And we're doing this by protecting the value proposition of the dealers. We truly believe in our plan that if we are increasing the inventory return, protect the dealer profitability, this will pay off long-term. And this, we had it pre-COVID. From fiscal year 16 to fiscal year 21, we're gaining share with less inventory than our peers. And we want to make sure that, again, we're protecting the value proposition for our dealers, and that will be more successful going forward. Very helpful.
spk18: Thanks for the call, guys.
spk05: Thank you.
spk14: Next question will be from Martin Landry at Stifel. Please go ahead.
spk10: Hi, good morning. I'd like to just get some colour on the order of magnitude of your production cuts that you're making in Q4. Can you give us just an idea of how much you've cut your production for Q4?
spk09: Well, the best way to read it, Martin, is by looking at the adjustments we made in the guidance. So again, with one quarter to go, we've adjusted guidance downward to reflect mostly production cuts. And so that's the main driver from a top-line point of view. If you look at, oh, we're expecting a strong quarter for year-round products because we're going to catch up from the Texas-Mexico that happened in the third quarter. So there's probably a little over $100 million of revenue coming from that. But also we have Maverick Cars to ship the new ATV platform that's shipping and high-end side-by-sides as well. So we'll have a decent quarter there. And we're delivering the final snowmobiles for which we have pre-orders from dealers and customers as well. So expecting a good quarter as well for seasonal products.
spk10: Okay. And just trying to understand a little bit, what's your approach to promotional activity? Some OEMs you've mentioned are very promotional. So what's your strategy to protect your market share on a go-forward basis? Do you want to match these promotions? How are you thinking about that?
spk05: First, some of our competition right now are having promotion on model year 23 and 24. We have no promotion on 24, but obviously, like normal, we have promotion on 23. Then we're trying to be balanced, obviously, again, to protect our brands and our value proposition and to continue our momentum. But it's a fine line. But at this point, we have more promotion, obviously, than last year. But we are still, we believe, in a normal path like we had pre-COVID.
spk10: Okay. Okay. Thank you, and best of luck. Thank you.
spk14: Next question will be from Joe Altabello at Raymond James.
spk11: Thanks. Hey, guys. Good morning. I guess first question, I was hoping to get a little bit more clarity on the software demand and the adjustments in production. It sounds like it's mostly off-road and mostly marine, but is it really more across the board, or is it primarily in those two categories?
spk09: That's correct. Off-road and marine is where we've adjusted. We've also adjusted P&A because same story for P&A versus units. We want to be diligent in managing the inventory in the network as well. And so we've made adjustments to the P&A shipment plan based on the current inventory in the network. We do have a bit of visibility there and also expectations on retail in the fourth quarter as well.
spk11: Okay. And just to follow up on that, it looks like, based on your revised guidance, you're expecting double-digit growth for year-round products in Q4. And obviously, a lot of that's the catch-up that you talked about earlier from the slowdown at the border. But it also looks like your marine revenue guidance implies double-digit growth in Q4. So help us understand that dynamic, given that demand is so soft in that category.
spk09: Yeah, we're lapping a very easy quarter last year in Q4 for marine. We were in the beginning of the ramp up of the new many two boats. And as you know, it was a challenging ramp up. And so last year we had very little shipments on the marine side. And so this year, now that the production is running much more smoothly, we are expecting to deliver the new product to the market ahead of Ochoa. Obviously, dealers need these units for Bocho.
spk11: And just one last one, if I could. The renewal of the NCIB, the timing of that, is that impacted at all by the fact that the Canadian tax on buybacks goes into effect January 1st, or is that not in your thinking?
spk09: Well, obviously, we don't like the tax there. We think that the government missed the mark in putting this tax in play, but it's not impacting our decision whether or not to do buybacks. It's a 2% tax that they're putting in place. If you look at what we've done in terms of investments over the last five years, that tax is meant to stimulate companies to do investments in the business. But if you see the amount of capex we've done, the R&D we've done over the last five years, it's not because we've done buybacks that it has held us back. And so, no, not related to anything on timing. Okay. Thank you, guys.
spk14: Thank you. Next question will be from Benoit Poirier at Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk15: Yeah, good morning everyone. Just to come back on the promotional activities, could you mention maybe quantify more color about the impact in the quarter and whether next year you're going to be trending in line with pre-pandemic level or above in order to maintain dealer inventory at a good level?
spk09: Good morning, Benoit. For the quarter, the promotional environment was a headwind of 100 basis points in the quarter versus last year. You might recall that when we issued guidance, we said we expect promotional environment to be a headwind of 200 basis points. We got a positive tailwind of 300 during COVID. The expectation is that we would keep 100 basis points this year. Year-to-date, we're running at 190 basis points, so we're still within our expectations or our assumptions, and I expect the end of the year we'll probably end at that 200 basis points. For next year, again, given that we are diligent in managing inventory, I think that's going to help us in being less promotional and making sure that we focus on dealer profitability. And as you know, dealers are making more money selling our products, and we think that is what's going to be driving our retail performance more than discounting non-current units.
spk15: Okay, perfect. And just in terms of capital deployment, you end up the quarter with a leverage of 1.4. I would be curious to get more color about whether you still expect some working capital reversal in Q4 and how does the market softening impact capital deployment in with respect to potential SIB, some product launches, or any opportunity maybe to look more closely at M&A over the next 12 or 24 months, given the softening market environment?
spk09: There's a few follow-ins on that question, but obviously, given the production cuts we've done, it is going to impact the tailwind that we were expecting from working gap, that we were expecting $400 million. So we'll probably be short of that, but still we're expecting a tailwind in the fourth quarter. We'll be generating over $1 billion of free cash flow this year, and so some of that went through the NCIB. As you saw, we just reinitiated our NCIB, and so we'll be opportunistic on that area as well. And as we said, our priority is to continue to invest in the business with OPEX, with CAPEX, sorry, because we're obviously very focused on growing this business, and we've been successful doing so, and we'll continue focusing on that. And as for the M&A, again, we've always been opportunistic. If it happens, we'll obviously consider it if it's strategic to our business, certainly something that we look at. but we're not necessarily in the market looking for M&A activity today.
spk15: Perfect. That's great, Paul. Thanks.
spk14: Thank you. Next question will be from Jianxiu at BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
spk16: Hi, guys. Thanks for the question. Maybe given the kind of softer demand, can you talk about the cost base and how you can kind of, you know, maybe places where you can kind of cut the cost to kind of protect the margins? Any thoughts on that?
spk09: Yeah, well, it always varies on how soft the market is. First thing, we want to be strategic on what we look at when we address costs. We want to be flexible as well. But we want to protect the business for the long term. And so the last thing we want is cut profusely in activities such as R&D and key marketing activities that will hurt the business in the long term. But we want to be tactical as well and address short-term headwinds that we might see in the business. So there is room to adjust our cost structure in the short term, yet plan for the long term as well.
spk16: Okay, got it. And then I think you kind of talked about expectation a little bit for industry retail going into next year. But maybe can you think about the different geographies? Obviously, international is softer in October. Does that kind of trend where North America is kind of outperforming international continue into next year, you think?
spk05: Well, if you look to our result in Q1, Q2, and Q3, I mean, we saw some weakness since the beginning of the year in EMEA and APAC. It's a market that fluctuated a lot in the last three quarters. Now, obviously, at the tail end of Q3, it was worse than what we were expecting. The United States is still okay, but there is some key economic data that we're following that we need to be cautious. The unemployment rate is still low at 3.9%. The inflation, and that's U.S. at the end of October. The inflation is going down 3.2 at the end of October, closer to the target of 2. Consumer confidence declined in July, since July, from 71 to 61. And the credit card balance is record high. Then there is a sign that the U.S. is also softening. And this combined to the international market, particularly EMEA and APAC, And again, the two conflicts in the world, that's why we prefer to be prudent.
spk17: Okay, very helpful. Thank you, guys. Good luck.
spk14: Thank you. Next question will be from Jonathan Goldman at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
spk17: Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. On the retail trend, I was wondering if you can discuss the cadence of retail, how it's trended in November. Did you see the pace of the clients accelerate versus October or show any moderation or any color on the cadence?
spk09: Well, we don't have industry numbers yet for November, but our retail is still up, but we expect the industry to be down in November.
spk17: Perfect. Thank you. And then second on the competitive dynamics, the presentation calls out elevated discounting by competitors on new model year units. Do you have a sense if that's largely a reflection of the worsening industry or weaker consumer, or maybe it's something specific to a competitor strategy, maybe a share gain approach?
spk05: I think in some industries, we're gaining significant market share, and some competitors want to defend their position. And this is why, particularly in the RV industry, What surprised us is discount on model year 23, but model year 24 product at this time of the year, it's quite aggressive. But it's to defend their market share position.
spk17: Okay. Thank you, guys. I appreciate the color. Thank you.
spk14: Next question will be from Jenny Katz at Morningstar. Please go ahead.
spk01: Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I hope you can maybe elaborate on an earlier question about the marine business, because if revenues are turning positive again, then can we assume profitability, at least that the gross profit line has hit a trough? And if so, could it potentially turn positive again in the fourth quarter?
spk09: Well, Marine had another tough quarter in Q3, obviously the longer ramp up of boats and very little shipments because of their inventory. That's the number one reason. The weaker industry is obviously not helping. In this quarter, we also had a special charge coming from the legacy of Enroute business where we had a special charge on inventory and that impacted profitability significantly. And so our plan is obviously for the turnaround to happen. Some of it we'll see in the fourth quarter, but the expectation is that next year we'll see a much improved profitability on the marine front.
spk01: Okay. And then from a pricing perspective, I think there's probably some sentiment that it will be harder to raise prices next year, in which case could there be some pressure on gross margin? And if so, What levers do you guys have or plan to use to mitigate those headwinds? Thank you.
spk09: Well, obviously, pricing is top of mind, especially in this higher inflationary environment. And inflation on costs, on salaries is still there. So we'll be diligent in making sure that we price our products in line with the cost structure that we have. But one of the huge benefits we have is obviously our manufacturing footprint. That is the majority of what we produce is in Mexico. And so obviously we have a better cost advantage that are coming out of the production facilities we have. And also in our approach to designing our products through modularity and what we've just recently launched, the new ATV platform, is under this new design approach. And so the majority of our lineup is on this modular design. And so that's obviously helping us drive better margins, I believe, versus the competition. And so it's giving us a hefty competitive advantage.
spk14: Thanks. Thank you. Next question will be from Luke Hannon at Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
spk02: Thanks. Good morning. Jose, I think you mentioned earlier that for three-wheeled vehicles, it was entry-level sales that were a little bit softer. Is that consistent with what you saw for your other product lines as well? And then maybe just following up on that, how have you been able to – can you maybe describe the share capture that you've been able to do within the entry-level portion of your broader product lines versus premium, given that there's been a bit of a washout of those lower-end OEMs in the market? Thanks.
spk05: Yeah, if I give you some data that we follow on the value versus premium trend, and obviously it's different from one product category to the other, but on the side-by-side in Q3, and this is the industry, the value product were down about mid-double digit when the premium was up about 20%. And this is definitely helping us. And our numbers for the three-wheel vehicle, because we closed the season 23 in Q3, the Riker category, which we consider value with our three-wheel lineup, was down about 20%, but the F3 and the RT, the high-end model, were up 20%. Then the trend that we saw since the beginning of the year where there is more traction on the premium, and consumers that have lower household income are more hesitant to finance the product is affecting the value, then this is continuing. That being said, overall, if you step back and you look at the big picture, we want to win in each category, but we're more skewed to premium product. And I think this is one of the reasons why we're continuing to be in share. in this tougher environment. Okay, thank you.
spk14: Thank you. Next question will be from Cameron Dirksen at National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
spk03: Yeah, thanks. Maybe just a bigger picture question around sort of the competitive environment. You know, I know in the past you've made some commentary about, you know, in a potential downturn scenario, there might be an expectation that some of the smaller players in power sports might choose to exit the industry. We've actually seen some exits even in a good environment. So I'm just wondering what your thoughts around, you know, if we have kind of a protracted downturn in the industry, call it a year or so, What do you think will happen with some of the marginal competitors? I mean, do you think you'd still want to see, still potentially would we see a trend where these companies would be investing less in power sports?
spk05: I mean, this is very difficult to predict what our competitor will do. But if we're focusing on our things and the dealers, the dealer right now with the slowdown in the industry, some dealers have, at least, they have option to decide. And we believe that with the space that now our business is requiring, the space in the service shop, that some dealer could be, would make the decision to drop some product line. And this is, we're saying from time to time, and this could happen in this downturn. Then I don't want to comment on what the competition could do. But I think there will be some dealer who will have to make some call on do they keep everything or do they drop some smaller line for them.
spk03: Okay, that makes sense. And just as kind of a follow-up and sort of related is just thinking about your CapEx as we look ahead to next year. Obviously, you're not in a position to guide at this point, but part of your market share gains here have been continuing to invest in new products. I mean, just directionally, what do you think CapEx might do in fiscal 2025? I mean, do you think you'll still obviously continue to invest significantly in the product line, or will we see an easing off of that?
spk09: We should see continued investments in CapEx or a number similar to what we have this year as something that would be reasonable to model.
spk03: Okay. Very good. Thanks very much. Thank you.
spk14: Next question will be from Mark Petrie at CIBC. Please go ahead.
spk19: Yeah, thanks. And thanks for all the comments thus far. Very helpful. Just a couple follow-ups, I guess, specific to the Fiscal 24 guidance. implies about 100 basis points lower EBITDA margins for the year versus what you had previously provided. So, Seb, I think you said programs are in line with expectations. So is the lower run rate just simply lost leverage on the slower volumes, or is there another factor?
spk09: The majority of it, lower leverage from manufacturing side, given the, we'll call it the short-term production cut that we did. So less time to rebalance our production and be more efficient. And the other one is OPEX as a percentage of revenue will be slightly higher because of the cut in production.
spk19: Yeah, understood. Yeah. Okay, perfect. And then also just following up on the comments you shared with regards to sort of the demographics of the customer and and sensitivity there. Can you just update us in terms of what you're seeing from the customer that's active in the business today, you know, who's new to the industry, returning to BRP, and any sort of color you can provide on demographics? That would be helpful.
spk05: We didn't see any trend change into the industry, and we don't have data on this, but We're hearing from dealers that there's more for the customer with lower income. There is more credit reject approval, but we don't have any hard facts on this. It's more anecdote that we're hearing from dealers. But except that, Mark, we don't see any change. Obviously, the household income is still higher than it was pre-COVID. The new entrant, same ballpark, but it's more the entry, the lower household income customer who has more difficulty to finance their product with the high interest rate, and I think the banks are more restrictive than they used to be.
spk19: Yeah, understood. Okay, thanks for the comments and all the best. Thank you.
spk14: Next question will be from Tristan Thomas-Martin at BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk07: Hey, good morning. Of your fiscal 24 guidance for revenue, how much of that is selling?
spk09: I'm not sure I understand your question.
spk07: I mean, how much of that is either incremental new product launches or channel sales?
spk09: Well, as I said, the plan for inventory in Q4 versus Q3 would be the flat to up single digit. The channel fill is going to happen more with the new products that we launched in side-by-side than the high-end side-by-side. So the Maverick R is obviously something that will be channel fill. The new ATV platform as well is where we're going to be seeing more deliveries And obviously there is some replenishment that's happening on the ORV side, but that's the main driver of Q4 wholesale.
spk07: Okay. And I just want to follow up to, I believe it was James' follow-up. Just kind of your playbook, if let's say the industry gets a little bit softer than you think or the competitors get more aggressive, is it fair to assume that you would rather slow shipments than continue to ship and then have to subsequently promote?
spk05: Yeah, you know, I would like to remind that we've been through those cycles many, many times, and I've personally been through a few of those over my 30 years at BRP. And one thing we've learned over time is when you see these situations develop, you're always better to be proactive. And we've been gaining share since fiscal year 16, We have developed an incredible value proposition for the dealers, and we want to protect that, and this is what we're doing. We're just proactively reacting to a softer demand to make sure that we protect that, and we're convinced this is the right thing to do for the long term.
spk06: Thank you.
spk14: Next question will be from Shabbat Khan at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk13: Great. Thanks, and good morning. I'm just following up on kind of the dealer inventory question from just earlier. I guess you said you wanted inventories to ideally be lower kind of by the end of next year. I guess can you maybe shed a little bit of color on is that really if demand plays out according to your expectations? You know, what are dealers telling you in terms of their plans for fiscal 25 in terms of, you know, do you have a magnitude on how much lower they would like inventories to be given the floor plan financing costs? And maybe just kind of the follow-up is... Are there any incentives or ways you're looking to help them with the floor plan financing cost if the current rate environment continues?
spk09: First of all, the situation is not bad in the network. We're in better shape than pre-COVID. As we talked earlier in the prepared remarks, inventory is up 24%, yet our retail is up 43%. However, dealers have seen price increases. MSRPs have gone up, and so the value of the inventory is higher. The mixed as well is more richer. So we sell more high-end models in all product categories. And the product mixed as well is different. There's a lot more side-by-side with higher MSRP, more switch as well. And so despite the dollars increasing by 24%, the value is up 50%. And so when you factor in as well a a financing cost that is probably increased by 300 basis points for the dealer they're seeing the impact of a monthly floor plan cost and so that's why we want to be diligent in managing the inventory especially in the current economic context we do support our dealers with a free floor plan period and we do support dealers as well when we come out of a season and there's more inventory. And so we've been active in the past to do this, and we will continue going forward. And so we want to make sure that we manage that inventory. So there might be a reduction of inventory in the low teen percentage for next year. That would be a nice number to achieve. But again, the situation today is not a disaster. It's very healthy when you compare it to pre-COVID.
spk13: Great. Thanks very much.
spk14: Thank you. Next question will be from Brian Morrison at TD Securities. Please go ahead.
spk08: Thank you. Many of my questions are asked, but I want to ask about what you're seeing in terms of price in the used market. I think the question was posed earlier. I didn't understand the answer. There's obviously been some softening this year, but are you seeing acceleration in October and November? And if so, what do you see of the magnitude of your decline in used prices?
spk09: Yeah, we do have a bit of visibility on the used market, but the used market is still healthier than pre-COVID. The gap of new to use has increased. I mean, it was almost zero during COVID. Now it has increased. But someone looking in to trade in a used product will get a good value because MSRPs have gone up quite a bit in the last two to three years. And plus there hasn't There's been a shortening of supply in the last two or three years, so there's not actually a big huge market, contrary to what people might expect. And so it's still very healthy, Brian. Okay. Thanks very much.
spk14: Thank you. And at this time, Monsieur Deschaines, we have no other questions. Please proceed.
spk04: Thank you, Sylvie, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning and for your interest in BRP. We look forward to speaking with you again in March for our fourth quarter conference call. Thanks again, everyone, and have a good day.
spk14: Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending, and at this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines.
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