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spk02: Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Credit Acceptance Corporation third quarter 2023 earnings call. Today's call is being recorded. A webcast and transcript of today's earnings call will be made available on Credit Acceptance's website. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Credit Acceptance Chief Treasury Officer Doug Busk.
spk03: Thank you. Good afternoon and welcome to the Credit Acceptance Corporation third quarter 2023 earnings call. As you read our news release posted on the investor relations section of our website at ir.creditacceptance.com, and as you listen to this conference call, please recognize that both contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities law. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, and which could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. These risks and uncertainties include those spelled out in the cautionary statement regarding forward-looking information included in the news release. Consider all forward-looking statements in light of those and other risks and uncertainties. Additionally, I should mention that to comply with the SEC's Regulation G, please refer to the financial results section of our news release which provides tables showing how non-GAAP measures reconcile to GAAP measures. Our GAAP and adjusted results for the quarter include a decrease in forecasted collection rates that decreased forecasted net cash flows by $69 million, or 0.7%, compared to a decrease in forecasted collection rates during the third quarter of 2022 that decreased forecasted net cash flows by $87 million, or 0.9%. Forecasted profitability for consumer loans assigned in 2020 through 2022, that was lower than our estimates of September 30, 2022, due to a decline in forecasted collection rates since the third quarter of 2022, and slower forecast net cash flow timing during 2023. primarily as a result of a decrease in consumer loan prepayments to below average levels. Unit and dollar volumes grew 13% and 10.5% respectively as compared to the third quarter of 2022. The average balance of our loan portfolio on a GAAP and adjusted basis increased 5.9 and 10.6% respectively as compared to the third quarter of 2022. An increase in the initial spread in consumer loan assignments to 21.4% compared to 20.2% on consumer loans assigned in the third quarter of 2022. An increase in our average cost of debt, which was primarily a result of higher interest rates on recently completed or extended secured financing, and the repayment of older secured financings with lower interest rates. Adjusted net income decreased 22% from the third quarter of 2022 to $140 million. Adjusted earnings per share decreased 20% from the third quarter of 2022 to $10.70. At this time, Ken Booth, our Chief Executive Officer, Jay Martin, our Senior Vice President, Finance and Accounting, and I will take your questions.
spk02: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again and please stand by while we compile our Q&A roster. One moment for our first question. Our first question comes from John Rowan of Janine Montgomery Scott.
spk00: Good afternoon. So, you know, when I think back, you know, overall long timeframe and looking at the company and, you know, every cycle, you know, that we've seen, whether it was a great financial crisis or COVID, it was roughly about three quarters of, of charges that you took to kind of right size the forecasted collections. And then, you know, obviously after that, the, those, those forecast revisions went away, you know, we're at six quarters now in a row of forecasted collection revisions on the downside and, Is there something different about this environment that makes it more difficult to get that number right? Is it still COVID reverberations? Is it CECL or is it car prices? I'm just trying to figure out why we're so much longer into this cycle and we're still seeing these negative charges. Thank you.
spk03: It doesn't have anything to do with CECL. That's just accounting. In terms of... You know, estimating forecasted collection rates, you know, don't have a perfect reason as to why it's taken longer for the 22 vintage in particular to, you know, settle in. You know, those loans were originated at a pretty unique time. It was very competitive in the industry. It had very elevated used car prices. And, you know, we have had the impact of inflation, which is something that we've never previously had to deal with. So that's really about the best answer I can give you.
spk00: Okay, and then, you know, just obviously I saw the queue came out, and it doesn't seem like there's any material, you know, disclosures regarding the CFPB and New York AG suit, but it does say that there's an update that has to be given on November 3rd. Is there anything you can tell us about what that update would include, or is that, you know... a possible time frame in which this case would move forward again? Because obviously it's still currently state, so I just want to understand what happens on November 3rd. Thank you.
spk03: Yeah, I don't think that, you know, anything's really going to happen with the case until, you know, the CFP or the Supreme Court rules on the constitutionality of the CFPB. The court has granted a motion to stay on our case pending that decision. I don't know exactly what will be discussed in early November with the court, but the court has granted a motion to stay pending the Supreme Court's decision. Okay. All right. Thank you.
spk02: Thank you. One moment for our next question.
spk01: And our next question comes from John Hecht of Jefferies.
spk05: Hey, guys. Afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I guess my question is a little bit related to John's prior question, just because this is a longer cycle. In prior cycles, you guys have kind of emerged as a price maker as other competitors have fallen back. But if you look at the spreads that you're issuing now, they're still kind of below where they were even a few years ago. I'm wondering kind of how would you describe the competitive market, and is there something that you'd see in the future or any indications that, you know, it may be becoming more favorable because we've gone through such a tough cycle for a period of time?
spk03: You know, I think we think the competitive environment is relatively favorable today. You know, we grew a loan portfolio and grew originations in Q3 at rates that we're happy with. Volume through the first 28 days of October is up materially. So I think the competitive environment is favorable. You know, the October volume would indicate that it's even more favorable recently. It's certainly not a situation like that that existed in the credit crisis when, you know, the industry really didn't have access to capital for a period of time. But I think that, you know, the competitive environment is certainly better than it was a year ago. And, you know, don't know how that's going to play out in the future, but we're pleased with how it's going to date.
spk05: And then just, I guess, maybe comment on, you know, obviously you're writing down the expected cash flows and that kind of fits and spurts over the past few quarters. Maybe can you just discuss the credit environment? I mean, is it a consumer that's just been exhausted by inflation, or is it more tied to asset values in the market? How do you describe the credit and the consumer's ability to service their debts right now?
spk03: Yeah. I mean, I think it's a combination of several factors, probably the two that you mentioned. Asset values and inflation would be the two most material contributors.
spk05: Okay. Thanks very much, guys.
spk02: Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1-1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again. One moment for our next question.
spk01: And our next question comes from Robert Wildhack of Autonomous Research.
spk04: Hi, guys. Just to follow up on the last point there, why do you think the competitive, or what's the reason behind the improvement in the competitive landscape? Is that structural? In other words, competitors going out of business, or is that temporary, i.e., some just pulling back for a bit?
spk03: You know, there have been some companies that have gone out of business or exited the market. But they haven't been huge participants in used vehicle financing to subprime consumers. So I think it's just more a function of other industry participants having to price their loans differently due to the increase in interest rates. I think people are also probably reacting to softness in credit performance.
spk04: Okay. And then as it relates to the downward revisions in forecasted collections, have you adjusted your approval rate at all in the recent quarters? And then did you change your approval rate at all in October?
spk03: We haven't seen a material. I mean, you know, we approve everyone. So we haven't seen a change in our approval policies. And we haven't made any meaningful changes in policy or price in October.
spk04: Okay, no change in October?
spk03: No material changes, no.
spk01: Okay, thanks.
spk02: With no further questions in the queue, I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Busk for any additional or closing remarks.
spk03: We would like to thank everyone for their support and for joining us on our conference call today. If you have any additional follow-up questions, please direct them to our investor relations mailbox at ir.creditacceptance.com. We look forward to talking to you again next quarter. Thank you.
spk02: Once again this does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.
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