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spk00: Thank you all for joining us today. I'm here in Manila with Damien Gamal, our CEO, and Nick Gianghiani, our CFO. Before we begin with our opening remarks, a reminder of our cautionary statements. The call will contain forward-looking management comments and other statements reflecting our outlook. These comments should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary language contained today, as well as the detailed cautionary statement found in reports filed with the UK, US, Dutch, and Spanish authorities. A copy of this information is available on our website at www.cocacolaep.com. A pair of remarks will be made by Damien and Nick and accompanied by a slide deck. We will then turn the call over to your questions. Unless otherwise stated, metrics presented today will be on a comparable and FX neutral basis throughout. Following the call, a full transcript will be made available as soon as possible on our website. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Damien.
spk13: Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, everybody from Manila, and thank you for joining us today. Before we get into the detail of today's announcements, I just wanted to take a moment to stand back and reflect. We continue to execute our clear strategy. We have an unwavering commitment to stakeholder value creation. Our retail customers continue to share in our success since 2017, and we've created more value for them than any of our peers. And indeed, our TSR speaks for itself. We've had a fantastic first half, driving an impressive upgrade to full-year guidance, supported by unparalleled in-market execution. Further geographic diversification is reinforced today with our proposed and exciting acquisition of Coca-Cola Beverages Philippines, which will also support our transformation journey in Indonesia. We're also clear on the strategic choices we make, from simplifying our portfolio to driving a more efficient business while investing for the long term, and always aligned with the Coca-Cola company and all our brand partners. So now to the agenda. Let's start with our strong first half. Before I begin, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of my great colleagues at CCP for the hard work, commitment, and dedication to our customers and to our business. I am very pleased with our financial performance. achieving double-digit top and bottom line growth, value share gains, and impressive free cash flow generation. Top line growth was price mix led, but importantly, also supported by solid volume growth. In addition, we grew transactions ahead of volume in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. This collectively has enabled us to raise our full year guidance today, which Nick will cover in more detail shortly. And we have continued to invest in the business for growth across our portfolio, digital, supply chain, sustainability, and of course, in our highly engaged people. We are focused on great people, great service, great beverages, all done sustainably for a better shared future. And I will touch on each of these areas as we take a brief look back at the first half. Starting with great people whose wellbeing and safety continues to be our number one priority at CCEP. I'm extremely pleased that even more of our colleagues participated in our Global Engagement Survey this year. We achieved an excellent score, positioning us comfortably ahead of our industry benchmark group, and we continue to be externally recognized as being a great place to work. We are committed to building an even more inclusive and diverse culture. We celebrated a number of key events across our business, including Pride, International Women's Day, and we support the Special Olympics with our colleagues from the Coca-Cola company. Great service will always be a key priority at CCEP as we strive to make it even easier for our customer to do business with us. We continue to invest in our supply chain, like the new state-of-the-art can lines we recently installed in Australia and Norway, and a new PT line in Iceland. Our journey to be the world's most digitized bottlers continues as we invest in our broader digital capabilities. In fact, Our B2B portal, myccp.com, celebrated its fifth birthday last week, and through ongoing investment, we are on track to have over 200,000 customers generating an impressive 2 billion euros of revenue through the platform in Europe alone. Most importantly, our customers continue to share and support our success. As we once again created more value in the retail channel for our customers within FMCG in Europe, and within any RTD in Australia and New Zealand and our peers. Activation, both in-store and online, is key to our success. We've kicked off some great plans for the summer, and we have some really exciting plans for the FIFA Women's World Cup, Halloween, and, of course, Christmas to come. And finally, our great beverages. We are extremely privileged to make, move, and sell some of the world's most loved brands, we continue to invest and innovate to make them even better and to appeal to even more consumers. In fact, in Europe, over 75% of households purchased from our NART portfolio up 50 basis points versus last year. Coca-Cola Zero Sugar continues to be a great example of successful innovation, achieving good share and volume growth across all key markets with volume of 5.5% in the first half as consumer trends for low and no calorie beverages continue. In energy, Monster continue to gain share through innovation with even more flavors in the juice and ultra ranges and supported by some great celebrity collaborations. We also expanded our footprint in the alcoholic ready to drink category with an encouraging start for Jack and Coke. So now moving on to two strategic choices we've made on our beverage portfolio. and our partnerships as we strive to further simplify to grow our business profitably. We believe these choices are right for the long-term success of our business, enabling a greater focus on our priority categories. In this vein, in Australia and New Zealand, we will maximize our extensive knowledge in the ARTD category by launching new scalable offerings aligned with the Coca-Cola company. The category is highly attractive, and one in which we are well positioned for a great future, having recently become the market leader with over 16 years experience. It is, of course, complementary to our core business from a manufacturing, sales and distribution perspective. In this context, our partnership with Beam Suntory will come to an end in the second half of 2025. And in Europe, our partnership with Capri Sun will come to an end during the full year 24. As you see here, neither of these choices will have a significant impact to CCEP. Importantly, we continue to make great progress on our sustainability journey. We remain focused on our packaging commitments and reaching our ultimate goal of using 100% recycled or renewable plastic in Europe and API. We recently introduced 100% recycled PET bottles in Indonesia. And in Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia, we moved Sprite to clear bottles, making them easier to recycle, so now in line with our European markets. We continue to invest in sustainability-focused technology through our CCEP ventures, and we are proud to be part of the recently announced Coca-Cola Systems Sustainable Venture. And importantly, we continue to be recognized externally, so all in all, great progress for the first half. I'd like to turn now to our first half performance highlights. As I mentioned earlier, we are very pleased with our top line performance. Solid underlying demand in our developed markets, the continued recovery of the away from home channel in the first quarter, and resilient trading in the home channel helped drive volume growth of 1%. I am particularly pleased with the volume growth in Europe in light of the headline pricing demonstrating consumers' love for our brands. Execution of our dynamic pricing strategies across our markets drove solid revenue per case growth of 10%. Our headline pricing remains ahead of pre-pandemic levels, but below realized cost inflation reflected in our margins as we continue to prioritize relevance and affordability. We gained value share both in-store and online within NARTD. And we also continue to win with our customers remaining focused on delivering fantastic activation and making it even easier to do business with us. Our continued focus on efficiency as we close out our full year 21 to 23 programs together with strong top line growth, strong operating profit growth of 13%. This supported impressive free cash flow generation of 850 million euros. And as I said just now, we have today upgraded our full-year guidance. I'd now like to hand over to Nick to talk in more detail to the financials. Nick?
spk03: Thank you, Damien, and thank you all for joining us today. Let me start by taking you through our financial summary. So we delivered total revenue of €9 billion, an increase of 10.5%, which I'll come back to shortly, while our cost of sales per unit case increased by 9%. As communicated previously, we anticipated the cost of sales per unit case increase to be weighted more towards the first half, given the comparables from last year. We delivered comparable operating profit of 1.2 billion euros, up 13%. This reflects our strong top line performance, as well as the benefits of our continued focus on efficiencies and discretionary spend. All in this resulted in comparable diluted earnings per share of 1 euro and 85 cents, up 17 percent. Free cash flow generation continues to be a core priority, and we delivered an impressive 850 million euros during the first half. And finally, on shareholder returns, we paid a first half interim dividend per share of 67 euro cents, which we declared in the first quarter and paid out in May. As a reminder, this was calculated as 40 percent of the full-year 2022 dividend. So, if you now turn to our revenue highlights, as we anticipated, the strong growth in our top line was driven by an increase in revenue per unit case and good underlying volume demand in our developed markets, with overall reported volumes up 1 percent despite lapping strong comparables. And of course, our strategic portfolio alignment choices primarily in Indonesia, but also the exit of bulk water and frozen in Australia. In Europe, trading momentum continued in the away from home channel with volumes up 4% in the first half, lapping 38% growth last year. And very importantly, this is up 2.5% versus 2019 levels. The home channel continued to remain resilient, growing 1.5% lapping strong growth of 4% last year for the same period. While all markets were in volume growth, France outperformed, delivering high single-digit volume growth, and Germany delivered mid single-digit volume growth. In API, very good trading momentum in Australia and New Zealand was offset by Indonesia, with volume down 5.5%. As I explained, the SKU rationalization was the main driver of this And including these one-off volumes in API would have been down 1.5%. More importantly, when you both look at Australia and New Zealand, and you back out some of these choices in Australia, Australia was up 3% on a volume basis, and New Zealand and the Pacific Islands were up 3.5%. So as Damien said, we're really pleased with the underlying strong volume momentum despite what we continue to have to manage through in terms of the pricing environment. In Indonesia, we did see some solid and encouraging growth in our affordable packs. Softer consumer spending in Indonesia as a result of the macro softness we referred to in our Q1 trading update is really what contributed. Moving to the revenue per unit case, which grew by 10% in the first half, this reflects positive headline price. continued focus on promotional optimization and revenue growth management initiatives. Encouragingly, we continue to be relevant to our consumers and shoppers and continue to leverage our broad pack price architecture that we have continued to develop over the years. Revenue by segment is also referred to here with more detailed commentary by geography in the release. Now to our upgraded guidance for full year 2023, which reflects our current view of market conditions. Starting with the top line, we now anticipate our revenue growth of 8 to 9 percent, an increase from 6 to 8 percent, driven by solid underlying demand in first half and the implementation of our price increases. As per our previous guidance, top line growth will be mainly price max led, but as I said, the volume performance supporting that has been very impressive. We do have Germany and Netherlands due to be implemented in the third quarter in terms of pricing, but that combined with the annualized impact of last year's second round of pricing, we would expect some moderation in our revenue per case in the second half. Promotional efficiency, of course, remains a top priority for us. Our consumer-centric approach has a clear focus on maintaining affordability and relevance. For example, in France, we have already committed to an additional three months of promotional activity on Coke Zero Sugar and continue to look at opportunities across other markets as well. As always, we continue to manage the business for the longer term with the overall realized pricing still tracking below inflation as reflected in our margins. Clearly, we remain focused on improving our margins over the midterms. The NARPD category has remained resilient to date, demonstrated by the value growth in all of our markets. And with our ongoing investment and innovation in our great brands, we believe we can at least maintain or grow our share in this robust category. We continue to see a dynamic external environment, with consumers increasingly being cost-conscious. With this in mind, we continue to leverage our recommended price-back architecture to address different consumer needs across the spectrum of affordability and premiumization. From a cost perspective, we now expect commodity inflation of around 8 percent, previously 10 percent, driven by lower gas and power and recycled plastic pricing. We are now over 95 percent hedged on our commodity exposure for this financial year. We still anticipate an increase of around 8% on our COGS per unit case. While we will benefit from slightly more favorable commodity pricing, this will be offset by upward pressure through the concentrate line as a result of strong revenue per case and strong mix, as well as the geographic mix. As a reminder, concentrate accounts for approximately 45% of our cost of goods. And as we look out further, we continue to build cover, and we are now over 65% hedged for 2024 and around 30% hedged for 2025. We will update, of course, more in due course. Given our improved top-line outlook and our continued focus on OPEX management, we will now look to deliver operating profit growth of 12% to 13% and increase from 6% to 7%. From a phasing perspective, we now anticipate operating profit growth to be more evenly phased across the first and second halves of the year. Our updated guidance today implies that we expect to improve our full-year operating margins by 40 to 50 basis points, a focus area for us, as I said earlier. Please note that these growth rates continue to be provided on an FX-neutral basis, and whilst it is too early to provide finite FX guidance for modeling purposes, we continue to expect to see a translational headwind of approximately 200 basis points for the year based on current rates. As for our previous guidance, we anticipated an upward trend on our effective tax rate driven by the known tax rate increases, such as the recent UK tax rate increase. We now expect our full year comparable ETR to be around 24%, implying a higher ETR in the second half. This is primarily due to the timing of the UK statutory rate increase, which only came into effect April of this year. And of course, as well, lower reversals of unrealized tax positions. And finally, we now expect to deliver free cash flow of at least 1.7 billion euros, increased from around 1.6 billion euros. With that, I'm going to hand back to Damien to talk about the transactions.
spk13: Thank you, Nick. So now turning to the proposed acquisition of Coca-Cola Beverages Philippines, a great next step for CCEP and an exciting opportunity for two great partners to come together and unlock even more potential in what is already a successful and profitable business in a great market. So just over two years ago, on from the acquisition of Coca-Cola Amatil, This will be a great next step for us as we further expand our geographic footprint in the region. The strategic rationale behind this proposed transaction is compelling. It would underpin our ambitious midterm objectives and would solidify our position not only as the largest Coca-Cola bottler globally by revenue, but also by volume. We have been reviewing the potential transaction and have invested significant time understanding the Philippines business, and the attractive market in which it operates. And put simply, we are really excited by the journey ahead. We're going to add diversification into an exciting part of the world with a strong local partner who shares our passion and focus on people and culture, innovation, and doing business sustainably. We've talked before to the meaningful benefits of scaling knowledge, best practice, and talent across the CCEP family. As we extend to 30 markets, this would naturally amplify our ability to go even further together. And by adding the second most populous market in Southeast Asia, alongside our presence in the first, we would not only significantly increase our consumer reach in a successful and growing market, but would also further support our transformation journey in Indonesia, where we see a strong opportunity to share learnings. We believe this would in turn create value for all our stakeholders, and of course, further solidify an already strongly aligned relationship with the Coca-Cola Company. As I mentioned earlier, the Philippines operates in a large and attractive NARTD category, currently valued at around $8 billion, which would therefore take CCEP's addressable market in euros to around 140 billion. The category is fast growing, estimated at around 10% per annum in value terms, so well ahead of CCEP's current group average of 3% to 4%. Within the NARTD category, sparkling is well established, representing around 55% of volume, with per caps over four times higher than the average for Asia Pacific. There still remains attractive headroom for growth when compared to other markets, where the category has a rich history and a longstanding relevance to consumers. And with consumer trends following in their direction, future growth opportunities would include low and no sugar, energy, and alcohol. So lots to shoot for and leverage from the rest of the group. It is also a market that comes with attractive macros. The Philippines is the 13th largest country globally, with solid GDP and population growth, and a fast-growing middle class. All metrics that are clearly ahead of Europe. So all in all, across the fundamentals and the category opportunities ahead of us, this would be a great 30th market to be adding to the CCEP family. Moving now to look at the Philippines business. It is the number one beverage supplier, currently accounting for over 40% of the NARTD category and nearly 70% of the sparkling category. The business serves around 1 million outlets through an extensive supply chain, supported by 9,000 highly engaged colleagues known as the Coca-Cola Tigers. Like New Zealand recently in CCEP, the Philippines won the prestigious Coca-Cola System Candler Cup Best Bottler in 2019. And the Coca-Cola brand has a long 111-year history in the Philippines. It was, in fact, the first market outside of the Americas where our great brands were introduced. As an established business with a proven track record, the Philippines has delivered solid top and bottom line growth. Last year, the business delivered around 650 million unit cases, which would double the size of our API business. It's also generated around $1.7 billion of revenue and $90 million of profit before tax. So already a business with attractive profitability and scale. And like CCEP and ABOITS, the Philippines has a strong focus on people and sustainability. For example, around 50% of our sparkling volume is already sold in returnable glass packaging. So to people, the CCEP family would be set to grow by around 9,000 colleagues to 42,000. Our people would have even more opportunity to grow and develop as we create a more diverse and inclusive culture. To our legacy, as I'm confident you would agree, we have a strong track record of integrating and driving value creation. As I mentioned just now, we could not only benefit from combining our talent pools and sharing learnings and best practices, including our partners' avoids. These would be in areas such as, but by no means exclusively digital, technology, procurement, and sustainability. And this transaction would be expected to support a transformation journey in Indonesia where the NARTD category is less developed at around 10%. Now I'd like to hand back to Nick to talk to the proposed transaction and the government's arrangements. Nick? Thanks, Damien.
spk03: And so the proposal is for CCP to acquire 60% of CCBPI with an enterprise value of around $1.8 billion, a business with very attractive profitability and growth prospects, as Damien has just talked to you. As CCAP would be acquiring a majority stake, the business is expected to be consolidated into our results from an accounting perspective with the avoidance minority stake recognized as a non-controlling interest. From a financing perspective, the transaction would be primarily funded by existing liquidity with a modest incremental borrowing that we would look to access from the public debt market. Given our strong and flexible balance sheet together with our solid free cash flow generation, the transaction would only have a modest impact on our leverage position. We had previously guided to return to the top end of our net debt to adjust to EBITDA range of two and a half to three times by the end of 2023. This would now instead be expected to be achieved during 2024. The transaction would be immediately EPS accretive, and by working together with the Aboitis and the Coca-Cola Company, we would be able to unlock even more potential for the Philippines. So clearly, a great use of our cash and a great deal for our shareholders. Moving now to the Aboitis family, one of the leading conglomerates in Southeast Asia as AEV, Aboitis Equity Ventures, is a publicly listed company and brings over 100 years of experience across multiple sectors, including food, power, banking, infrastructure, construction, and land and data science. Aboitus' considerable experience of the market and cultural dynamics together with their strong local connections and proven partnership experience working with multinationals like CCEP would no doubt be invaluable to us. Bringing this together with CCEP's proven track record as one of the world's largest consumer goods companies with deep bottling expertise, we believe this will be a very, very powerful combination. By working together, Aboitus and CCEP would therefore be able to unlock even more potential for the Philippines business. And similar to CCEP, Aboitus have a clear long-term investment mindset with a large family ownership. So all in all, a very complimentary partner. Of course, this is endorsed by the Coca-Cola Company, and we are tremendously excited to be working with the Aboitus family. Now before finishing with the next steps, a few comments on governance and how we would work with the Aboitus and this joint venture setup. A strong governance framework would be put into place. The local board of directors would consist of five members, three appointed by CCEP, including the chair, the two other directors would be appointed by Aboitus. CCEP would also appoint the CEO, the highly regarded general manager, Gareth McGowan, with a continuing role supported by a strong local leadership team. As expected, although both CCEP and Aboitus are committed to this transaction and the partnership for the long term, an exit mechanism has been agreed in advance should the need arise and subject to a redefined initial lock-up period. The Philippines would naturally be incorporated into CCEP's existing API business unit led by Peter West. Peter recently stepped away from the running of the Australia business day-to-day, enabling him to spend more time across API, including the Philippines, once this potential transaction closes. We have a strong focus both to support the Indonesia transformation and bring across some great learnings, as Damian referred to earlier. So finally to next steps. The proposed transaction is subject to satisfactory completion of customary due diligence by both CCEP and the avoidance group, which is well underway today, and all parties obviously then concluding definitive agreements and the receipt of the requisite regulatory approvals. Therefore, there is no certainty at this stage that the acquisition of CCBI will be entered into or completed. So, as it stands, the potential transaction, if entered into, would be expected to close around the end of the year. We will, of course, update you on our progress here in more detail during the course of the next month. And with that, I'm going to hand back to Damien for some closing remarks.
spk13: Thank you, Nick. We remain very focused on delivering a very successful rest of the year at CCEP. We have a lot to look forward to in the second half of the year and beyond, with some great activation plans and an exciting innovation pipeline, some of which you can see on this slide. As we've talked about today, we have had a strong first half, driving an impressive raise to our full-year guidance. We're really very excited about the proposed acquisition of the Philippines business. This transaction demonstrates our commitment to further diversification and underpins our midterm objectives. We're equally committed to driving shareholder value creation. Not only would this proposed transaction be immediately accretive to earnings and therefore our absolute dividend, but does not compromise our deleveraging path, given it will only have a modest impact. To close, I would like to thank again our customers our brand partners, and our great people whose hard work and commitment mean we are able to go further together for all our stakeholders. So thank you very much. Nick and I will now be happy to take your questions. Thank you, operator.
spk05: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, we kindly request only one question per analyst. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please also press star 1 and 1. Once again, please press star 1 and 1 if you wish to ask a question. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A queue. This will only take a few moments. We will now go to our first question. One moment, please. And your first question comes from the line of Ed Mundy from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
spk10: Afternoon or evening, Damien, Nick and Sarah. I've got one question on the transaction. It looks like revenue per case is about just under two and a half euros for the business, which has a relatively high market share and quite a decent proportion of sparkling. Could you talk to the headroom to grow revenue per case as you've done in your other regions through either your RGM toolkit or as you bring a bit more strategy and focus to that. And as part of the same question, could you perhaps clarify what the multiple you paid for this business looks like, a high single-digit multiple, but I'd love to get some clarification around that.
spk13: Hi, Ed. Maybe I'll just touch on the first part of your question, and thank you. Yeah, obviously, we've got a number of experiences and toolkits across CCP that we would like to bring to this transaction if it closes. And I think that would allow us to look at their revenue per case and their overall RGM strategy. So obviously as we get to understand this business a bit more and learn what is and what has been quite a successful business, we see the opportunity to share best practice and learnings, whether that's from Europe, Australia, New Zealand, And obviously, we see an opportunity to share learnings back into Indonesia. So that combination really excites us. And one of those outcomes would clearly be to see, you know, can we use some of those revenue growth management tools in the Philippines to extract more value from what is, as you called out, pretty uniquely high sparkling share and a pretty uniquely high NARTD share. So that certainly gives us a platform to explore it. So more to come out once we get into the business a little bit later. Nick, do you want to comment on the transaction?
spk03: Yeah, sure. So as you've seen, we're paying $1.8 billion on that 60-40, so our share would be roughly that $1.1 billion. We've obviously disclosed the revenue as well as the PBT. PBT is pretty much a proxy, I would say, for operating income. when you add back the depreciation impact to get to an EBITDA, you'd come up in approximately 10 times multiple.
spk10: Got it, thank you and congrats on the transaction.
spk09: Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman from Barclays, please go ahead.
spk06: Hi everyone. Um, so, so many questions. Um, I guess the first thing would be long list.
spk05: Yeah.
spk06: Oh God. Um, okay. So I guess, um, I'm going to follow, I'm going to do a follow up to ads and then throw in an extra. So the follow up on ads was just, um, what can you tell us the profitability of this business before, sort of inflationary times. I was just curious if the margin profile, while great that, you know, Philippines makes good money, if the margins were materially higher, you know, let's go back two or three years ago before there was inflation. I'm assuming it's been pretty significant in the Philippines as well. And then the second thing was just route to market. I know with Indonesia, you know, one of the big long list of things to unlock or figure out was We're about to market in this very complex and tough-to-serve marketplace. So what could you tell us about what that looks like in the Philippines today? Thanks.
spk13: Yeah, so hi, Lauren. Maybe I'll just take the second part of your question. Yeah, so clearly there's a lot of similarities in terms of both markets between the Philippines and Indonesia from a route-to-market perspective, a lot of outlets, small outlets, islands, So a high degree of logistics focus. I think clearly when you look at the results of the Philippine business, they've clearly found a way to execute in the market and create value for the shareholder. And that comes down to quite an efficient and I would say flexible route to market system that we're still learning about. So obviously taking those learnings back to Indonesia is something that excites us. Clearly the Philippines business benefits from a much higher per cap. I mean, it's a business that should the transaction close, the Philippines will become our oldest market in CCP, having been here well over 100 years. So that's quite an unusual dynamic. So the category has got scale, it's got relevance, and with that comes a lot of velocity, and they've got a route to market that allows that to grow and make money. So while the category dynamics are slightly different in terms of per capita, the volume of outlets, the geography, the impact of islands, et cetera, very, very similar to what we're experiencing in Indonesia. So we're already taking back some learnings. And I think both countries could collaborate really strongly to build out, particularly on the systems and technology side, some solutions that would work well in both markets. So More to come on that, but clearly as we looked at this opportunity, it's something that we really felt could create value outside of the Philippines, but particularly in Indonesia. So more to come on that. Nick, do you want to comment on the profitability and margins?
spk03: Yeah. So, Lauren, you know, it's an interesting question because I think to your point, you know, no single market has been immune to the inflationary pressures. But if you look over the last couple of years, both BIG and Gareth, who runs the operation, who will be continuing to work with us, and we're really excited about that, have been quite focused on being able to achieve pricing in the market. And they've actually had three rounds of pricing in the last two years to try and protect some of that margin erosion as a result of the inflation. Interestingly enough, and I think this is where we have a strong local partner, that can really help us continue to unlock some of the value when you think about some of the structural issues that we can talk more about once the transaction is closed. That will also give us more opportunities in terms of unlocking future margin opportunities, as well as how we continue to look at pack evolution to help drive that margin opportunity as well. So I think we've gotten some initial good on that through Gareth and the team. And I think we're excited about the opportunities going forward on that margin evolution as well. So more to come.
spk06: Great. Thanks so much.
spk05: Thank you. We will now take the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Charlie Higgs from Redburn. Please go ahead.
spk07: Good morning, Damien. Hope you're both well. We've touched on Philippines. Congrats. I just wanted to talk maybe a bit about Indonesia and clearly quite a big impact from the SKU trim down there. Can you maybe just give us a sense of the reception on the ground from customers? and maybe how the underlying portfolio excluding that SKU trim is performing, and then just what it means in terms of INDO revenue per case and margins going forward. Thank you.
spk13: Thanks, Charlie. So no surprise in Indonesia. I mean, as we laid out our near-term strategy in that market, clearly we felt that simplification of our portfolio would unlock value in the medium term, both for us and for our customers. if you look at the categories that we've decided to exit or streamline, they are not as profitable as Sparkling for us or our customers. So while we haven't guided on the impact of that, clearly it's part of our plan to bring margin to CCEP, but also to our customers on a sustainable basis. So yeah, there's a near-term impact. Obviously, you see that in the volume line, but that's as we expected. It does unlock I think a lot more value in the medium term, both from an asset utilization for us in Indonesia, prioritizing our sales force, which is a very large sales force in Indonesia, using the space that we get in our customers more efficiently for them and us. So as you can imagine, as I mentioned in the Philippines, a lot of small outlets, not a lot of space. So you've got to be really choiceful about what you put into that space. And I think one of the learnings that we've seen in Indonesia that In some ways, we crowded that space with categories that didn't really create value. So we've executed that now. We'll cycle through that in 2023. And again, that will give us a cleaner platform for 2024. So no specific guidance on margins, but all I can say is that what we've prioritized is sparkling, and that is our highest margin category in Indonesia. So I think for us and our customers, it supports that midterm value creation story.
spk08: Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. We will now go to the next question. One moment, please. And your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Hertuk from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
spk04: All right. Thank you. Hi, everyone. I have a question on your guidance this morning. You did raise and tighten your top line guidance, which is great, but implies a little bit more modest top line growth in the second half of mid-sigil digits. I mean, you highlighted the expected moderation in net revenue per case, but could you talk about some of the other drivers and maybe what's factored into top line guidance in terms of elasticities and future pricing? And then your guidance also implies greater operating leverage in the second half, which you touched on, but, you know, maybe you wanted to better understand the visibility you have on this and, you know, maybe a little bit more color in the drivers of that too. Thank you.
spk03: Yeah, sure. Hey, Bonnie. So I think a couple of things to call out. So if you look at the top line, it's primarily being driven by obviously the moderation that you would expect because we're getting the benefit in our revenue per case. from last year's price increases and everything that we've taken this year as well. And so that's effectively what is driving that. From a volume perspective, clearly remember we are also lapping through a very, very tough comp in the third quarter, if you remember last year. So we are mindful of that because July has been quite a wet month across most of Europe, as you probably have seen on the news, which is a bit of a change of what we saw in terms of the performance in May and June this year, which really helped us buck and manage through some of those comps from last year. I think the other piece that we're cognizant of obviously is continuing to remain, like I said, affordable and relevant and ensuring that we have the right level of promotional support as well to, you know, ensure that our products remain relevant to that consumer base. So I think that's on the top line. So we'll obviously provide you an update and a lot of it will, you know, play out based on how August and September, which are critically important months, trend for Q3. And then obviously December is an important month for us, as you know, as well. On the cost side and the margin piece, that really comes back to the fact that we had always indicated that our COGS per case was more weighted towards the first half. And as I said, if you look at the guidance for 8% COGS per unit case and the fact that it was up 9% in the first half, Effectively, that's about seven. So you're getting that type of leverage then coming through to support that OI growth and that margin expansion, as I alluded to as well. So all in all, we feel good in terms of where we are and feel that that's still a very healthy level of top line and bottom line growth for the year.
spk13: Maybe just Bonnie to add to those comments. I think, you know, when we're experiencing above average inflation on the revenue side that we see that across all of our markets. I think it's really important to focus on volume and transactions, because I think they, in that type of environment, demonstrate the strength of our consumer relationships. So as Nick called out, as we look at the second half of the year, we really want to continue to replicate what we achieved in the first, which is to deliver really good top line revenue growth. with price mix but also with volume and transactions because I think as we continue to navigate the higher cost of living challenges, making sure that our consumers are still connecting with our brands is really important and I think that's something that we've reflected in our second half guidance as well.
spk04: Okay, all makes sense. Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. We'll now take your next question. And the question comes from the line of Eric Sirota from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
spk16: Good morning and good evening. So the Philippines business has been under various different owners over the past 10 years or so. I'm hoping you could give some perspective as to what CCEP and your new partner are plans to do different from previous owners what you guys bring to the table that's a bit different and how you're approaching the strategy for the business that would be different yeah hi it's um yeah from our perspective i think there's a couple of elements that we feel excited about i mean clearly we're going to bring a lot of scale and best practice
spk13: learning to the Philippines from both within the region with our API business and also from Europe. I think we've got clearly a long-term focus on this business with our shareholders. And clearly, we believe that the Philippines, for us and our partner, represents a fantastic long-term opportunity for CCP. And I know our partners feel the same way. We do feel in this instance having a local partner can unlock more value, and I think that is a different structure to what went previously. And I also think the business is in a very different place now. I think under the leadership of Gareth and BIG, as you can see from the numbers we share today, it's a growing business, it's a profitable business, it has momentum, and clearly we believe by bringing it into family of ccep that we can accelerate that value creation you know so i mean a lot of different phases of the philippine business but it's a very very established and old business so it's it's managed all those really well and we clearly believe by bringing it into ccep now it's a new chapter that gives certainty to the employees and certainly to our customers and with the local partner i think adds an extra dynamic that we believe gives us more relevance within the Philippine market. So that's a unique combination that hasn't existed before in the ownership structure. And obviously we do that with the support of the Coca-Cola company, which as you can appreciate is a critical enabler as we look forward in the Philippines. So a number of elements as we move forward in the proposed transaction and as we aim to close, clearly that question is something we'd love to come back to. with a bit more detail and granularity about how that looks for the next two or three years. But clearly that will come probably early 2024. Great.
spk16: Thanks so much.
spk05: Thank you. We will now go to the next question. And the next question comes from the line of Mitch Collette from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
spk09: Hi Damien. Hi Nick. When you bought Amatil, it felt like the Indonesia business was a nice addition and you were really trying to apply your European toolkit to another developed market. But I guess this is a different proposition given that you're buying an EM geography. I guess given that this only delays your de-gearing by one year, I'm interested in the strategic direction you think you'll take going forward. So do you think that building a bigger EM presence is the most attractive route to creating value from here? Are you more interested in focusing on DM-focused assets, or is it really just dependent on what assets are available and what those assets bring in terms of value creation opportunities?
spk13: Thanks. So I mean, clearly, If you look at CCP's value creation story, it will remain predominantly coming from the developed markets of Europe. We've unlocked tremendous value very quickly from Australia and New Zealand. I think that supports our cash flow. It supports our value creation story for our shareholders. Ultimately, it allows us to deleverage and then move, as you said, probably a little bit later than planned, but not too much later, into returning even more cash to our shareholders. That part of the story remains the biggest part of the story at CCEP. As you pointed out, we were excited about the opportunity Indonesia represented when we did the Amatil deal. 300 million consumers, young, a very underdeveloped market in terms of the category. So we do see continued upside there. What's unique about the Philippines is you may define the Philippines as an EM from an economic perspective, But from our category perspective, it's quite well developed. If you look at the per capita as we showed earlier, it's not obviously a mature business, it's a growing business, but it's got a very strong foundation. So when the opportunity arose to consider, it was always something we had on our radar. When we acquired Indonesia, we felt there would be potentially one more step in this part of the world to allow us to build scale. And I think by combining the Philippines and Indonesia, we will have achieved that. I think we will have brought markets that have similarities, but as I mentioned earlier, quite different category dynamics. And I'm confident that we can extract a lot of value from what the Philippines has done to build a sparkling category and an efficient route to market back into Indonesia. But if you look at our numbers, our free cash flow, and our profit generation, we will still be very much focused on our developed markets. So a little bit like our company in Indonesia, I think it's a fantastic addition to our business if the deal closes. But ultimately, it'll balance in a nice way what is a really great developed market and cash-generated business, and that obviously will remain our core focus.
spk03: Yeah, and I would just add to that, if you did take that traditional approach of an EM versus DM approach, Even with adding in this market from a revenue perspective, if you looked at that as EM, as Damian rightfully said, it's actually very developed in terms of the category, but it's only 10% of our revenues as Indonesia and CCBI together. So there's still the majority of our business that's coming from the DM side in the classical sense, one. And two, I think you shouldn't underestimate the power of having a larger platform with two of the most populous countries in Southeast Asia with Indonesia and the Philippines in terms of how we can think about things from a perspective of synergies, from a digital perspective, from a digitization perspective, et cetera, and cross learning. So I think we're very excited about that opportunity. And to the point around leverage, it is really a minor tweak, so I wouldn't even be over-indexing on that in any way.
spk09: Thank you both.
spk05: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Spillane from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
spk01: Oh, thanks, operator. I don't know what time of the day it is. Whatever. Good day, everyone. So just two kind of quick ones related to the Philippines. Nick, I think what you inferred in an answer to the earlier question was roughly $180 million of EBITDA. And I believe what Coca-Cola Fence had disclosed when they were exiting, I think EBITDA in 2017 is $178 million. similar, I guess, you know, today versus what it was in 2017. But just kind of interested, because you did mention inflation just cut. So what the path has been was, you know, had EBITDA and EBITDA margins improved, and maybe we've taken a step back on inflation. So just kind of some perspective there. And then the second is, if just, you know, if I look across kind of where consensus estimates are for next year, I think some folks have put share repurchases in their models. And so, you know, Just maybe some thoughts there in terms of how we should be thinking about that now, you know, given this transaction, you know, should we be thinking about maybe pushing share repurchases out a little bit further in the future? Thank you.
spk03: So let's take the second one first, because just to be clear, we had never guided towards any kind of share repurchases outside of what people decided to put on their models. So I can't help you change their model. But if you're looking at it from an angle of, What this does, as we had said, this would have taken us to the top end of our leverage by the end of this year. If you think about the size and scale of the 60% based on the 1.8 billion that we'd be paying in dollars, you're talking about a billion euros, right? And that's significantly less than what we generate in free cash flow. So really, from a timing perspective, this is really a tweak, like I said. And again, we've always said we would continue to work towards that midpoint of net debt to EBITDA ratio and accordingly then be able to consider, absent other M&A, which obviously we don't see anything on the horizon today, but as we all know, that's opportunistic, Clearly our commitment to being shareholder friendly and maintaining an efficient balance sheet is unchanged. So, you know, I think the modeling can work pretty well to be able to tell you when that might come in. So for argument's sake, that could be a 2025 event absent some of the other areas that I talked about. In terms of, you know, obviously the fact that you're looking at a 2017 number, is a while away, given the fact that we had COVID, and then you've had a significant inflationary impact as well. I think the team has done a great job, but keep in mind, these are 2022 numbers that I have given you. 2022 clearly also had some issues that I referred to in the broader comment around some of the structural issues. which had an impact on both the top line and the bottom line, which clearly we would expect to start seeing improving in this year and the years going forward. So I think once the transaction closes, Brian, we'd be able to give you some more information as to how you might be able to model that. But clearly keep in mind there was some one-offs structurally that caused that number in 2022 to be what it is.
spk05: Thank you. We will now go to the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Sanjit Alja from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
spk12: Hey, Damien, Nick. Just curious on the timing of this transaction. Why now? when you're still busy integrating Amatil? Was there some urgency from the Coca-Cola company to get this done? Just love to get a bit more perspective there, please. Thanks.
spk13: Hi, Sanjeev. No, not at all. I mean, we felt it was the right time. I think if you look at the results that we've delivered two years into the Amatil transaction, I think we're even ahead of our expectations. And as you know, Nick and I always set very high expectations of the business. But clearly, we felt very comfortable with the leadership of Peter across API and the talents that we've acquired. So that gave us comfort to look for bigger opportunities in the region. So we felt this was the right time. Clearly, we've got to go through a process probably till the end of the year to get it closed. So from a kind of implementation integration phase, you're looking probably 24 So that's two and a half years after the Amatil transaction closed. So for us, we can be a bit impatient, Sanjeev knows. So we felt it's a good time and we found a good partner. So yeah, we're very happy with the timing.
spk03: And the balance sheet allowed it as well.
spk12: Yeah. Got it. And just for perspective, when did you start working on the transaction and was it always the plan on day one to incorporate a local partner?
spk13: Well, we've been looking, I suppose, probably predates Amityl. So as we looked at acquisition opportunities that we felt could create significant value for shareholders, obviously Amityl at the time came out as a priority. And obviously we've demonstrated that was the right decision. We had also looked below that at the same time at other bottling assets that we felt were valuable and creating value. And through that process, we had identified the Philippines, And then pretty much over a period of time, we explored that with the Coca-Cola company. And then obviously through that process, we explored a local partner as being a good option to unlock some more of that value. So yeah, over a number of months, as you can appreciate, these things take time. I'm glad we got to the day that we could announce it, but clearly we've got a bit more work to do to close it. And that's our priority at the moment.
spk12: Great, thanks. And just a quick follow-up for Nick. Can you just give us a bit of a sense of how commodity costs are shaping up for 24 for the portion that you've hedged to date?
spk03: Yes, I think the portion that we've hedged to date, you know, obviously, remember, we don't look to try and beat the market. We're always trying to make sure that we're getting the certainty so that the business can plan appropriately. I would say to you, generally, we've obviously gone in when we've seen the right trigger points, but I said it's a combination of that and certainty. The most important piece that you need to keep in mind that's still a little open is on sugar. And that's probably the element that we're working on right now for a couple of our markets. And again, we'll be able to provide you with some more color on that as we go through the year. But clearly you're seeing not the same levels of, absent the sugar piece, of what obviously we have seen in the last couple of years, particularly with gas and power easing a lot, some of the recycled TET costs coming down, et cetera. But then again, it's a volatile market, right, in terms of how oil prices have reacted over the last 10 days. So I feel good about where we're covered for now, and we'll provide you more updates in due course.
spk12: Great. And just to be clear, at this stage, you're seeing commodity courses inflationary, not deflationary, but to a lesser degree than in recent years. That's the message. Exactly. Exactly. Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nick Oliver from UBS. Please go ahead.
spk02: Thank you for the questions. Just one on liquidity in Europe, because I guess with most liquidity still on the US line, there are a number of investors who would like to own CCP but can't. Anything that you can share with us on broader approaches to getting more liquidity in Europe?
spk03: Well, listen, the only approach to getting more liquidity in Europe is actually doing an equity offering in Europe, which we are not currently planning or contemplating in any shape or form. So the potential unlocker there could be what might happen in the UK with the FCA's announcements and what the FTSE then might do. which is towards moving to a single segment, so getting away from what is the standard and premium listing segments to a one single segment. Clearly, if the FTSE maintained its current rules, which obviously we'll wait to see in the fall what they come out with once the finalization of the FCA's position, then that would mean that from a size perspective, we would become a FTSE 30 company. And like I said, if the rules do exist and we get fast track just based on our size, then we would immediately be a part of the FTSE index, which naturally would drive more liquidity either pre, during, or post. So that's an event that we will continue to monitor. And I'm sure all of you are monitoring it as well.
spk02: Yeah, well, yeah, we are. Yeah, I just, in terms of timing, I guess I think maybe autumn I think is when they're gonna, is the next update.
spk03: Correct, correct. Autumn is when the FCA would give their update because the consultation period should then have been through and then the FTSE obviously is working in the background, we're assuming, to be able to hopefully affirm its rules, which I said if that both happened, then hopefully we would get included into the index just based on our size and our liquidity. And then that would be tested at periodic intervals on how that liquidity then moves and how our trading liquidity happens on that exchange, which in some ways comes back to my point around that pre, during, and post. Because the more that happens, the more that supports us then remaining as a part of that index. Yeah, perfect.
spk02: Super clear. Thank you. Great.
spk05: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Ottenstein from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
spk15: Great. Thank you very much. Damien, I'm wondering if you could Just give us a very short history lesson on the FEMSA situation. They had bought back. They had bought 51%, I think, of the business. They sold it back to Coca-Cola. I think if I recall right, there was labor issues. There was a sugar tax, some other issues. So maybe kind of give your sense of what happened, what went wrong, in that go around and, you know, where things stand on, you know, the labor, sugar, any of those sorts of factors that, you know, led to that outcome. Thank you.
spk13: Hi, Robert. I mean, it's quite a while since that period. And honestly, I don't have the history. I think you've probably just outlined it better than I could have. And I think, to be fair, I think FEMs are probably the best people to talk to around their learnings and experiences. I think I can look at the last three to five years because I think it's just a bit closer in time. I think some of the elements that disrupted the business, like sugar tax, et cetera, is in the base now. Certainly, when I look at the business and I speak to the team locally, there's been stronger top-line growth. Good value creation, profitable. So I suppose we're looking at it based on what we see today in the past couple of years and really going back to those days, I'm not sure we had a lot of value, but clearly if you're curious, but I think you did a good summary, I'm sure FEMSA will be able to answer that better than we will. All I can say is we're just really excited based on what we've seen and what we've looked at. And I think, again, it's a great soft drinks business, and that's unusual in this part of the world, and I suppose that's what excites us. Nick, do you want to add anything?
spk03: Yeah, Robert, all I would add to Damien's comments is remember that the way the deal was constructed, it did have a put-and-call option, which obviously gave FEMSA that flexibility or that ability to sell that back or exercise that put. So, you know, we haven't taken that approach. We have a very long-term mindset, as do our partners via Boitus. We believe this is a very attractive business with an attractive growth profile, a very developed sparkling categories we talked about with high shares, a high NARTD share, and a great management team. And I think, you know, for us, we look at it more in terms of looking forward with a strong long-term mindset.
spk15: Great. And you referenced regulatory issues. Is there anything unusual on the regulatory side that we should be aware of, or anything that gives you particular caution, or is this just sort of normal procedural things that just take time?
spk03: Just to be clear, I didn't mention regulatory issues. I said regulatory clearance, which is... That's what I meant.
spk15: Sorry, that's what I meant.
spk03: Which is just the normal process with any transaction. which, you know, we don't anticipate any issues, but obviously need to plan for the timing of that post-agreement of docs. So, yeah, that's all it is, Robert.
spk15: Got it. Thank you very much.
spk05: Thank you. We'll now take our next question. And our next question... comes from the line of Richard with agent from Kepler. Please go ahead.
spk11: Yes. Hello, all. And thanks for the questions. I want to get back to the promotional effectiveness. I think Nick or Damien, one of you two mentioned that as it helped to get to the 10% revenue per unit case quote. So what changes are you putting through and which tools helped you to achieve the The improvement in promotional effectiveness and then maybe Nick if I can quickly squeeze in what kind of cost of capital Are you assuming for the for the Philippines transaction, please?
spk13: Thanks Richard So suppose on the promotional effectiveness, it's been a multi-year journey I think it started particularly in Europe and then obviously it's followed in Australia New Zealand where Well, the first step was to broaden the number of SK use and pack offerings that we presented to shoppers and consumers. And we've done that quite successfully. An example will be our mini cans or a new small PET in some of our markets. Then we've overlaid that with some really good data and analytics tools that allows to really go back and look at what has been the impact of any given promotion in our market. And then we measure that against clearly what did it mean for our customers' profitability? What did it mean for our profitability? And most importantly, what did it mean for the shoppers? So did it add shoppers? Did it grow frequency? Did it grow penetration? Did it grow transaction size? And over many, many quarters, we build up a really solid database of what really works in what environment. And as you can appreciate, in Europe, really in the back half of last year, we started to pivot some of our promotional effectiveness against some of those more affordable packs because we realize with the cost of living pressures, energy prices, et cetera, that a number of our shoppers are probably becoming more value conscious than they've been previously. So that allows us to kind of discuss with our customers pretty much against the same aligned objectives. They want to retain shopper loyalty. They want to retain brands because that's where they generate higher margin, particularly cash margins. And then we look at the mechanics that will unlock that. So it's quite a good process now. And it's something that has unlocked a lot of value in Australia and New Zealand. And it's something that we've built into our routines now. So it's not a one-off. It's part of the way we do business. The more we do, the richer the history of data gets. And that allows us to make even smarter decisions going forward. We are also embarking on a new SAP platform. And that will allow us to have a fully integrated system across all of our markets, which will include a proposed transaction to the Philippines. And that will even make it more seamless. So I'm looking forward to that. That will take a bit of a while. But in the meantime, we're using the same tool everywhere. So that's exciting. Nick, do you want to comment on cost capital?
spk03: Yeah. Richard, we've looked at a range of 99.5% of a cost of capital for the transaction.
spk11: All right. Very good, guys. Thanks.
spk05: Thank you. We will now take our last question for today. And our last question comes from the line of Carlos Levoy from HSBC. Please go ahead.
spk14: Yes. Hello, everyone. Damian, Nick, will you, do you think you'll be able to secure some form of an LTRM model? in the Philippines for ensuring that you can comfortably exceed your cost of capital there, looking out over the long term. And then sort of related, the backbone of the Philippine affordability strategy is refillables. Is it your intention to grow or to reduce refillables in the Philippines, and how do you view the role of refillables over the long term there?
spk13: Hi, Carlos. So, I mean, I think we've been working on the LTRM with the Coke company across all of our markets and the Philippines will be no different. And that model will allow us both to achieve our financial goals and our growth goals. So I think we've done that quite well in Europe and in the old Amatil territories. We'll do the same in the Philippines. So we're already having those conversations. So I feel good about that. I think refillables is one of the strengths of the Filipino business when we look at it, both in terms of driving affordability and relevance. So we see that as a key part of our future. Clearly, we'll look at how do we extract value from that pack and from the supply chain. As we look at our investments going forward, clearly it's an area that we'd look to see if we can optimize. As you know, we've got a big refillables business in Europe, both in glass and in PET. So when you combine the Philippines, we're a sizable bottler in terms of using refillable packaging. So we're working with the company on some new initiatives around universal bottles, float harmonization. So that will allow us to maintain that affordability, which we know is critical, particularly in markets like Indonesia and the Philippines, but also unlock value. And I think that's critical. So, yeah, very excited about it. It's about 50% of the sparkling business. It's growing. We expect it to grow in the future. And yeah, it's something that we see as a core part of our proposition, not just in the Philippines, but we use it across all of our markets where it makes sense. And I think that will continue, Carlos. Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. I would now like to hand the conference back over to Damien Gamal for his closing remarks. Damien, please go ahead.
spk13: Thank you, Operator. And again, I just want to say a big thank you to everybody for joining us today. As you can appreciate, it's been a long and exciting day for all of the team here in Manila. And I just wanted to kind of end with a few closing remarks. I think most importantly, I'm extremely pleased with our strong first half performance and our ability today to raise our guidance. I mean, that performance, whether you look at the top line, the volume growth, the free cash flow generation has allowed us to take the next step in our journey, which is obviously we're very excited today to announce the proposed transaction of the Philippines bottling business with our local partner. And I think that's something that sends a new era for our business in this part of the world and also supports our Indonesian business going forward. And then finally, as you'd expect from CCP, we remain fully committed to shareholder value creation. We see the proposed transaction to be accretive to earnings and has very modest impact on our leverage. And again, I think demonstrates the strong free cash flow of this business allows us to make the right choices for all our shareholders and our customers as we continue to look forward to a growing business at CCP. So thank you again and look forward to speaking to you all soon. Have a great rest of the day.
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