Canopy Growth Corporation

what's going on everybody it's rod with pow group welcome back on the pursuit of wealth your home for mj stocks crypto assets news and interviews today is monday february 5th hope you had an awesome weekend in this video we're going to be doing some earnings prep for canopy gross upcoming q3 2024 earnings on friday before market open we're going to discuss the analyst estimates and curious what the community thinks do you think we're going to see a beat or a miss the analyst estimates are not that great So we'll take a look at the chart as well and what to expect in terms of price action in the days, weeks, and months ahead. I'll give my thoughts and opinions on the technicals. But as always, this is not financial advice. This is for entertainment and informational purposes only. You should never, ever, ever buy or sell anything based on anything that I write or anything that I say. Before we get to it though, make sure to smash like. It helps support me in the channel. It doesn't cost you anything. If you're new, you can subscribe, tick the bell, all that good stuff, and you'll be notified on any future videos or when I go live. You can also give us a follow over on X, which is formerly Twitter. The handle for that is at group pal. I'm going to be using that as my platform of choice. It's also the best way for me to get real-time community updates out to everybody. So really do appreciate, love each and every one of you supporting me along the way. So Canopy Growth to report third quarter fiscal 2024 financial results on February 9th, 2024. And that'll be before financial markets open. And then Canopy Growth will also host an audio webcast with David Klein, CEO, and Judy Hong, CFO, on February 9th at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. I'll do my best to join that conference call. I'll have to see what I have on my plate that day. I already told everybody that I recently welcomed my daughter into the world, my partner and I, so very exciting times. It's been very busy. Sleep has been very lacking at this point, to say the least. Definitely a lot of work, but definitely worth it. She's absolutely adorable and so sweet, so it makes it all worth it. But we'll take a look at some of the earnings estimates. So if we take a look at investing.com, one practice and exercise that I like to do now with regards to earnings is kind of go through what the analysts are expecting and then kind of get a consensus of all them. So I usually use investing.com. I like Moomoo's platform as well for their analysis with regards to their financials and estimates. And then also factoring in TradingView. TradingView isn't the greatest, but... Same thing with investing.com. They usually get the dates wrong as well. It says here February 15th, but as we know, it's February 9th, this Friday, before market open. So if we take a look at investing.com, they're forecasting 76.58 million Canadian and negative 0.062 in terms of EPS. Then if we take a look at Moomoo, they're forecasting in terms of revenue, 73.452 million Canadian, and that's based on 10 analysts. And then EPS earnings per share, negative 0.50%. And then if we take a look at TradingView, it's showing negative 0.504 for earnings per share, and then revenue estimate of 74.804 million Canadian. So I went ahead and added all three of them in terms of the revenue and divided them by three, and we get 74.945 million in terms of revenue estimates. So if we come in at 68,000, That's obviously going to be a big miss, probably hurt the stock. If we come in at 80 or above, then obviously going to be a big beat, and then it'll more than likely propel the stock higher. So we're going to just keep an eye as that being the most likely scenario, somewhere around that 75 million Canadian area. And then in terms of earnings per share, again, added all three of them, and then we're expecting negative 0.355. So that's what I basically... I think I did this on a recent company. Was it... I think it was Tilray. I think I did that same kind of exercise on Tilray, and it was pretty much bang on, exactly what I was expecting. So... That's something that I've been doing a lot lately and it tends to be very, very accurate, right? You're looking at over 10 analysts that is estimating those results and then kind of get the consensus, I think is a great practice going into these earnings reports. Just kind of gives us, it's not like anybody has a crystal ball, we don't know for sure, but if we can kind of get the consensus on what to expect and then have an earnings per share number, have a revenue estimate number, and then just kind of gives you a ballpark idea. And if we come in with a huge miss or a huge beat, then you're more prepared for it. But again, it's always a gamble with regards to earnings, but... We'll take a look at the chart here as well. We did close at the low of the day today. We'll take a look at CGC. A lot of people ask me why I chart the NASDAQ names or the US names. It's because they have the most volume, right? So you want to chart the data points that have the most data, right? You want to chart on the charts that have the most volume, the most data, and that way you can get the most accurate scenario, what's playing out behind the scenes and what could potentially be coming in the days, weeks, months ahead, right? So if we take a look at the weekly timeframe here, We're still struggling with this weekly EMA 12, so that is a brick wall of resistance at the moment. And something I've been saying for a while now is we need to see weekly EMA 12 and 26 bull crosses across the sector. We need to see monthly uptrends confirm, and we need to see golden crosses. And that's something that CGC has been lacking. We haven't seen a weekly EMA 12 and 26 bull cross on CGC or on Canopy Growth since October and November of 2020. So it's been over three years. Since we've seen this weekly EMA 12 and 26 bull cross, and we're getting very close now, I would say we're probably a couple of months, if not several weeks away. And then something that we need to confirm as well as monthly uptrends. So if you look at the US producers, right, that are a lot more bullish at the moment, because they stand to benefit the most from rescheduling. You know, safer banking, uplisting to the NYSE and the NASDAQ rate, Florida potentially on the ballot, Pennsylvania pretty much a done deal by the looks of things. Obviously, they're going to benefit the most, but when we get the actual DEA decision, let's say, you know, tomorrow the DEA comes out and confirms that it's going to approve that Schedule 3 recommendation from HHS. Well, you know, names like CGC, names like Canopy and Tilray and SNDL and Hightide are going to benefit tremendously as well because that's where the majority of institutional money flows and then also where retail money flows, right? There's people in the U.S. that can't buy U.S. names because they can't buy OTC and they can't buy it on the Canadian exchanges. I know people in Europe and from one specific market in Denmark where they can only buy the NASDAQ listed names, like think of Canopy, think of Tilray, SNDL, Hightide. They can't even buy MSOS ETF, right? So that's going to play a major factor when these headlines break, right? So at the moment, nowhere near confirming a monthly uptrend. We're just trying to hold the low of last month there at 426. And so far, the low of this month is 443. Resistance is 526, the high of last month, and we hit 527 this month. We're basically double topping rate at resistance of last month, but we still haven't lost support of last month this month. So key support is going to be 426. We lose that, then it's all about 346. We're just scouting a monthly higher low, and we still need the higher high. So we've got a lot of work to do. Technically, we'd have to break over 1920 to confirm a monthly uptrend, which is very, very far away. So it's going to take a long time here. And then we need to see weekly EMA 12 and 26 bull crosses. I think that'll more than likely happen first. And then we'll look at golden crosses with the 50-day below the 200-day moving average. If those cross, that'll be what we refer to as a golden cross. So when the 50-day moving average is below the 200-day moving average, again, it's been over three years since that happened. So I would say that the weekly EMA 12 and 26 bull cross could happen first. Then we get the 50-day and the 200-day moving average cross. And then we get the monthly uptrend, which... Could be multiple months before that happens. It could be many, many months. It could be, I would say, more than likely at least three months before we confirmed a monthly uptrend, maybe even more. It might even be pushed out to 2025 because the fact that Canopy doesn't really have any profitability, you know, dates in mind, right? They're looking at, they're probably not going to be profitable until later 2025 or even 2026, right? So there's definitely some upside here though. We know that they have the EU GMP certified cultivation facility in Kincardine. So they're going to be a huge beneficiary as well of the German market. So they have that EU GMP certification, which is going to be great for the stock as well. If there's anybody that could turn it around, I think Canopy has what it takes among a lot of the LPs. Some of the troubled LPs, I think it's one of the ones that more than likely could pull out of it and succeed long term. So we'll keep an eye out on it. I'll do some updates. Maybe I'll do an update with regards to their earnings and review those earnings. But I'm not expecting much out of it this quarter, to be completely honest with you. And like I said, we're starting weekly consolidation this week. So we're losing the low of last week. It was just a weak bounce, another weekly lower high and potential for a monthly consolidation really any day now. So definitely one of the weaker names. If you take a look at a name like MSOS ETF, for example, we're breaking to a monthly higher high and CDC is close to losing monthly support and breaking to a monthly lower low. But again, lots of opportunity will present itself once we get that DEA headline. So something I'm going to be keeping an eye out for, but we're still well below the 10 week moving average at this point. We are seeing some positivity here on the stochastic on the weekly timeframe. We're seeing a bull cross there. We're nowhere near the 50 weekly moving average there at 825. And in terms of the daily timeframe, we're below all of the daily moving averages. So we're very, very weak at the moment. I just did a video on AYR and I was taking a look at AYRWF. You can see it's above all of its daily moving averages. And then in terms of its weekly moving averages, it's above the 50 and it was above the 100 weekly. So it kind of gives you an idea that CGC is nowhere near the strength that we're seeing on some of these MSOs, right? It's definitely a laggard. It could offer a ton of upside, but there's tons of risk as well, right? So it's just one of those names that personally, I don't hold a lot of it. It's less than 10% in my whole MJ portfolio. I recently just did a video as well. If you go to videos on my channel, I did a video, my MJ portfolio 2024 update about three days ago. And you can see my entire MJ portfolio with percentage breakdown CGCs in there, but it's definitely one of my smaller positions. And It's one of the positions that I think can see tons of upside, but obviously tons of risk. So I've planned accordingly. I'm not going to bet my whole life savings on this company or anything like that. There's still a lot of changes that need to be implemented in the company. We know they're going asset light, but there's still a lot of changes that are going to be implemented. forthcoming in the company and a lot of time that is going to more than likely have to pass before we see any kind of profitability metrics being met. Like I said, it's probably going to be at least a couple of years before we generate any kind of profitability. And yeah, based on that, I wish I could tell people that we were going to... $10, $20 from here, I don't see it. I think it's going to be one of the laggards. It's probably going to take a headline like the DEA approving Schedule 3 for this to really start to see some momentum to the upside. I'm not really expecting much from earnings on Friday. If there's no updates in the sector and if we get, let's say, weakness in the S&P 500, if we see weekly consolidation there, and a healthy correction there. That's only going to add more bearish momentum to the stock, but I'm not very hopeful for the earnings on Friday, to be honest. I think they're more than likely going to miss estimates. Maybe in the next three or four quarters, three or four quarters out from here, we can start to see some positivity, but it's still going to take a while before we see the right sizing of this ship really start to reflect in the numbers. I think there's a lot more Um, I think there's a lot more troubling times ahead, uh, before we can really, you know, kind of see the light at the end of the tunnel here, but it's really going to be riding on the DEA headline. If we can get that, you know, we'll instantly shoot up probably 30, 40% in one day. Right. And then it could shoot up, you know, a hundred, 200% in a couple of weeks or months. Right. Uh, so we just have to plan accordingly. I see people all the time telling me that, you know, they got pretty much their whole MJ portfolio in canopy. I just be very, very cautious, even, you know, putting it into another MSO. I think it's very, very risky putting all your eggs in one basket, being diversified, not just in the MJ space, but having, you know, other investments as well, real estate cash, uh, as well as a, as a position, you can also hedge with a potential short on the S and P 500 with all time highs in sight, uh, We have 500 psychological coming up on the S&P 500. So now's not the time to get complacent. And there's ways to protect against this potential downside and diversifying across the LPs, the producers in Canada and in the US, I think is a great strategy. And we'll see what the numbers have in store for us on Friday. But like I said, I am expecting probably a miss. And then in terms of The average, like I said, we're expecting somewhere around that 75 million Canadian in terms of revenue, and then EPS probably somewhere around negative 0.35. So we'll see if that ends up being correct. But going to end it there, it's Rod with Power Group. Thanks again for joining us on the Pursuit of Wealth, and we'll see you again on the next video.