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spk03: Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Chewy's Holdings Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and the lines will be open for your questions following the presentation. On today's call, we have Steve Hislop, President and Chief Executive Officer, and John Howey, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Chewy's Holdings Incorporated. At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Howey. Please go ahead, sir.
spk09: Thank you, Operator, and good afternoon. By now, everyone should have access to our second quarter 2022 earnings release. If not, it can be found on our website at Chewy's.com in the Investors section. Before we begin our review of formal remarks, I need to remind everyone that part of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of future performance, and therefore, you should not put undue reliance on them. These statements are also subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we expect. We refer all of you to our recent SEC filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact our future operating results and financial conditions. With that out of the way, I'd like to turn the call over to Steve. Thank you, John.
spk02: Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our second quarter earnings call today. Our second quarter began with a positive top-line momentum as we continued to enjoy the strong demand from our guests craving the unique Choose experience. This was demonstrated by solid comparable sales growth, particularly in April and May, as compared to both last year and 2019. With that said, we have not been immune to recent sales volatility seen across the consumer landscape, resulting in flat to slightly positive comparable sales as compared to last year for the month of June and into the third quarter to date. It's also worth noting that we have endured the hottest May, June, and July on record in Texas, which has had a negative impact on our traditionally strong patio sales and alcohol mix. Furthermore, despite the unprecedented inflationary environment, our team's ongoing focus on cost management and operating efficiencies resulted in over a 19% restaurant-level operating margin, one of the best in casual dining segment and a 190 basis point improvement over our pre-pandemic level. At Chewy's, our goal has always been to provide fresh, made-from-scratch food and drink at an incredible value. And despite the cost environment, we are continually working to maintain our strong value gap versus our peers, which we believe will benefit us in the long run. With that in mind, we are taking an approximately 3.5% price increase in the third quarter in order to maintain a balance between protecting our store-level margin and maintaining our value proposition to our guests. Importantly, even with this price increase, our value proposition remains strong relative to our peers, which we believe will continue to give us future pricing power should the need arise. With that, let me update you on certain key aspects of our business, starting with staffing. We're pleased with the improvement we've made in terms of hiring during the second quarter and are comfortable with the progress we've made in our staffing levels. We believe the key to proper staffing is in retention of our team members, both hourly and managerial. During the quarter, we continued our retention bonus program for our managers, provided referral bonuses to our team members for providing successful new applicants, and most recently rolled out a new mental health and personal counseling benefit for all of our team members. We continue to be successful with our off-premise business. Mixed is at approximately 27% during the second quarter. This is above our targeted low to mid-20 off-premise goal, and we remain pleased with our team's execution. Also, with regard to off-premise, we made progress in expanding our catering business, which is now in 16 markets. We are on track to complete the rollout system-wide by the end of the year. In terms of menu innovation, if you recall, we streamlined our menu offerings at the onset of the pandemic and have been slowly adding certain popular items back into our menu as we return to a more normal operating environment. To that end, starting in the fourth quarter, we are planning to introduce quarterly specials we call CKOs, or Chewy's Knockouts, with a combination of old favorites and exciting new items offered on a limited time basis. This includes new items such as the Macho Burrito, Pork Boom Boom Enchiladas, and Chewy's Fried Chicken Tacos, all of which will be supported by our marketing initiatives. During the quarter, we continue to utilize digital media to not only introduce and highlight new menu items, but also as a recruiting tool. This includes the use of TikTok, organic influencer programs on Instagram, YouTube video advertising, and promotional advertising partnerships with DoorDash. Combined with the launch of our new website later this year, we are excited about the potential of our marketing initiatives allowing us to reach broader audience groups and to better connect with both new and returning guests. Before I turn the call to John, let me quickly touch on a development plan. During the quarter, we successfully opened a new restaurant in Midland, Texas, and are pleased with its performance to date. As we look ahead, we have adjusted our development expectation for the year to four new restaurants as a result of external challenges related to supply chain and construction. We have pushed the rest of the openings originally scheduled for 2022 to early 2023. With that, I will now turn the call over to our CFO, John Howard, to discuss our second quarter results.
spk09: in greater detail. Thanks, Steve. Revenues for the second quarter increased 2.6% to $110.9 million compared to $108.2 million in the same quarter last year. The increase was primarily related to $2.1 million of incremental revenue from new restaurants opened subsequent during the second quarter of 2021. For the second quarter of 2022 and 2021, off-premise sales were approximately 27% of total revenue. In total, we had approximately 1,250 operating weeks during the second quarter of 2022. Comparable restaurant sales increased 1.7% versus last year, driven by a 3.4% increase in average check, slightly offset by a 1.7% decrease in average weekly customers. Comparable restaurant sales increased 0.6% versus 2019, turning to expenses Cost of sales as a percentage of revenue increased 420 basis points to 27.8%, driven by a substantial increase in the cost of beef, chicken, as well as fresh produce, cheese, and grocery items. Overall, commodity inflation during the second quarter was approximately 24%, and partially offset by a menu price increase taken during the year. Based on the current market conditions, we expect our third quarter commodity inflation to remain in the mid-20% levels as compared to 2021. Labor costs as a percentage of revenue increased approximately 110 basis points to 29.1%, primarily due to hourly labor rate inflation of approximately 11% at comparable restaurants, as well as an improvement in hourly staffing levels as compared to last year. This was partially offset by a menu price increase taken during the year. As we look to the back half of the year, we expect our hourly labor inflation to remain at elevated levels of approximately 10% for the third quarter of 2022 and 6% to 8% for the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to 2021, in addition to a continuation of the year-over-year increases in staffing levels. Operating costs as a percentage of revenue increased 110 basis points to 15.8% due to higher restaurant repair and maintenance costs, an increase in credit card fees, as well as cost pressures on utilities and to-go supplies. In addition, our delivery service charges were also higher year over year due to a change in our delivery menu pricing structure. Marketing expense as a percentage of revenue increased 40 basis points to 1.5%, as the company reinstated its digital advertising campaigns across the nation. Our occupancy cost as a percentage of revenue decreased 10 basis points to 6.8% as a result of sales leverage on fixed occupancy expenses. General administrative expenses decreased to $6.5 million in the second quarter from $6.7 million in the same period last year, driven by lower performance-based bonuses and professional fees, partially offset by an increase in travel costs related, and other expenses. As a percentage of revenue, G&A decreased 40 basis points to 5.9%. In summary, net income for the second quarter of 2022 was $7.9 million, or $0.41 per diluted share, compared to $11.5 million, or $0.57 per diluted share, in the same period last year. During the second quarter of 2022, we incurred $0.7 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, in impairment and closed restaurant and other costs. compared to 1.4 million or 5 cents per diluted share in the same period last year. The decrease was a result of the reduction in rent and holding costs paid on closed restaurants as the company continues to exit out of these related leases. Taking that into account, adjusted net income for the second quarter of 2022 was 8.4 million or 44 cents per diluted share compared to 12.6 million or 62 cents per diluted share in the same period last year. Moving to liquidity and balance sheet, as of the end of the quarter, we had 96.3 million in cash and cash equivalents, no debt, and 35 million of availability from our credit facility. During the second quarter of 2022, we purchased 58,700 shares of our common stock for a total of 1.3 million, and as of June 26, 2022, we had approximately 20.6 million remaining under our $50 million repurchase program, which will expire on December 31st Lastly, we'd like to provide an update on the following guidance for fiscal 2022. As Steve noted, we now expect to open four new restaurants in 2022, with two of those planned for late in the year. Net capital expenditures are now expected to range between $30 to $33 million. Restaurant pre-opening expenses are now expected to be approximately $1.5 to $2 million. And we still expect our effective annual tax rate to be between 12% and 14%. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Steve.
spk02: Thanks, John. While we can't control the macro environment, our team remains focused on doing what they do best, providing our guests with a unique Chewy's experience they have come to expect. We can accomplish this goal by being fully engaged in executing against our key pillars of safety, convenience, and value. In closing, we believe our underlying business remains strong, and the initiatives we've put in place have positioned our company to capture a healthy, pent-up demand for our high-quality, made-from-scratch food. Most importantly, none of our accomplishments to date would have been possible without the hard work and dedication of each of our team members. With that, we're happy to answer any questions. Operator, please open the lines for questions.
spk03: Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from Mary Hobes with Baird. Please proceed with your question.
spk01: Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question and thanks for the color on the quarter to date. I guess looking ahead, if the consumer were to continue to slow, is there anything you're thinking about doing differently from a menu or marketing perspective to respond to that? Or I guess, how would you encourage us to think about what levers you'd have to pull or how you'd respond to that type of environment?
spk02: You know, the key levers for us is the value that we already have within our menu. You know, that's the key for us. I think our price points are phenomenal, our value equation as well. And I think we'll just be talking about pretty much that and value and the convenience of our to-go.
spk01: Got it. And on the margin outlook, the prior 300 to 350 basis point goal seems like it could be tricky for 2022, just given the inflation expectations you shared. But How would you think about the opportunity to get back to those levels in 2023 at this stage?
spk09: You're absolutely right, Mary. I mean, we weren't expecting 25% inflation. So I think long term, that is still our goal. And I think that is definitely achievable. This year, it may be a little difficult given the inflation situation. But I think as that calms down, I think we can get back to that long term.
spk01: Great. Okay. And then last one, you know, from us would just be understand the development challenges impacting 2022 and the slippage there for some units to 2023. But how are you thinking about your prior goal of accelerating unit growth to the double-digit range in 2023 at this point?
spk02: Yeah, we feel good at this point. Again, we started the year with a lot of them on the back end of the year. And obviously, as you mentioned, the development difficulties has been there, but we're expecting in 2023 to get back to the 10% growth a year.
spk01: Great. Okay. I'll pass it on. Thank you. Thank you so much.
spk03: Thank you. Our next question is from Chris O'Cull with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
spk08: Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Good afternoon, Chris. Hey, John. I appreciate the wage rate pressure that you talked about and the – the 10% increases you're talking about, could you help us understand where the rate wage rates are relative to 2019?
spk09: Um, they're just slightly higher than that to be quite honest. Um, I can give you that exactly, but I think they're right around 15% when you're looking at 2019. Uh, let me look that up. And if you have another question, we'll, we'll be looking that up as you, uh, at that, but I think it's around 15, if I remember right. 15% above 19 levels? 16.6, so it's a little off. 16.6 above 2019 levels, yes.
spk08: Okay, and then the company ended another quarter with $100 million in cash on hand, but this quarter you only spent $1 million on share repurchases, so what are the plans for the cash on hand, and why not be a little bit more aggressive with the buyback?
spk09: Great question. We only have 15 days during the period from which to buy. We do have a 10B, I mean, we can put a 10B5-1 and we have. Those instructions just weren't hit during the period as often as we'd liked. But we tend to be aggressive at these levels again. So that's kind of all I can tell you there. We plan to be aggressive at the levels that they are, but We've got to do it within the window or change the 10B5-1, and we can't really do that within the year.
spk02: And we'll be aggressive with the stock prices.
spk09: Yeah.
spk08: What's the optimal cash level you'd like to have on the balance sheet? I mean, it's been at this level for some time now. I'm just curious why the elevated cash level, especially given the debt capacity you have and the improved margin structure that you have for the business.
spk09: Yeah, I mean, we're looking at that right now, Chris. We're looking at it at the executive level and at the board level from basically a capital allocation standpoint on where we want to go with that. Right now, I mean, we'd like to do it with growth, but, I mean, we don't want to do growth for growth. We're looking at about 10%, and so we won't be able to spend all that. We're also looking at, you know, also buying properties maybe and doing sales lease back to reduce that overall investment long term. in those investments, and then buy back the stock. So to answer your question, the ultimate, you know, we operated for years and years with about 13 to 15 million. You know, 20 to 25 million is probably a good number to keep on our balance sheet and keep operating. but we're looking at other capital allocations at this point.
spk02: And as we've mentioned before, Chris, you know, we were comfortable sitting on this cash as we're continuing to go through COVID and especially through 2022. And that's what I think is because I don't think we're 100% done with COVID. So that's something that gives us a pause a little bit also. Okay, great. I'll pass it on.
spk08: Thank you.
spk03: Thank you. Our next question is from Brian Vaccaro with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
spk10: Hi, thanks, and good evening. I was hoping you could elaborate on the comp moderation that you're seeing in recent months. I guess I'm just curious if that's primarily a traffic or check dynamic, any differences you can see in the data amongst different consumer cohorts or any changes in order patterns that you're seeing as consumers navigate the menu.
spk09: Sure. I mean, it's pretty broad-based, Brian. And like Steve said on his comments, we've had three months of the hottest months in Texas. We lost close to $3 million in patio sales this quarter, which equates, when you're looking at alcohol mix, alcohol mix on the patio is probably around 25% to 26% compared to dine-in of 20% to 21%. And so you're losing a lot in the way of alcohol sales, and not from attachment rates, but I think just from patio sales. So that's been really a driving force for our Texas stores.
spk10: Okay, great. And on the commodity front, John, I think you said you expect mid-20s inflation in the third quarter. I know it's an uncertain environment, but I guess everything you know today, how do you expect that to trend? looking into the fourth quarter. And then could you just give us an update on your contracts for the second half and any areas in particular that you're not contracted on?
spk09: Sure. And so our proteins, obviously chicken we can't contract in. We have a fixed rate over earner berries. So as that comes down, we'll benefit from that. And the numbers that we're giving is if it stays as is. So to the extent that we get Two areas that can really help us out, and that's produce and chicken. Produce, though, once it starts, you know, you would see avocados come down, and then now they're going back up. So, you know, we've seen elevated produce prices. If they come down, we could see some benefit there. Chicken, if it continues to come down, we see benefit there. Our beef is locked in. We continue to look at opportunities to buy at lower costs and mix into those contracts. which may help us, but that will mainly be in next year. We're purchased through the end of the year in beef. And then oil, I think we're locked up in oils, which we make our own mayonnaise and things like that. So we contract through oil, soybean oil and all that through the end of the year as well. So to the extent that we can contract further out and mix that into the contracts, we can see some benefits. But what we know today, that's kind of where we're seeing. In Q4, we're seeing it come down a little more, but I think your overall inflation for the year is going to be in that high teens, low 20s.
spk10: Okay, great. That's very helpful. Last one I just want to ask about was on labor. Could you expand a bit on the pace in which your staffing levels have been increasing over the last few months? Maybe a snapshot of where your staffing levels were early in the quarter and maybe more recently? And I'm just trying to understand sort of where these staffing levels are compared to your current needs, given that traffic is obviously still down somewhere in the teens versus 2019. Thank you.
spk02: Yeah, thank you. We started the quarter probably in that 85% to 90% staff rate. I'd say we're at 95 plus right now. We feel real good about it as we continue to move forward. And, again, these are on our new power levels as we continue to move forward. So we feel strong with that. Obviously, we're going into about to be a slower part of our year when you index our quarters into the third. So we feel great about it. We're always constantly looking for great, great talent. We're never going to ever say we're fully staffed because we're always hiring, and that's how we'll continue to look at it. But we feel real comfortable with where we're at today.
spk10: That's great. I'll pass it along. Thanks.
spk03: Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from Andrew Strelzyk with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
spk05: Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. My first one is just on pricing. And I guess, you know, in my notes here, I've got from last quarter that you were looking at three to three and a half percent. So that came in at the high end. But I guess with inflation continuing to run as high as it is, You know, why is that still the right level? How are you thinking about pricing beyond understanding that, you know, we have some consumer uncertainty and the value proposition is obviously very important. I'm just, I guess, trying to get a sense for how to continue to think about it beyond the three and a half.
spk02: Yeah. Yeah. Again, it's important to note that we started at the beginning of the year. At the beginning of the third period, we took about a three, three and a quarter is what we took in the second period, about three and a quarter. Then we came back and took another three. So we're a shade under 7% for the year. And we think that's a push. I think that's still a little bit better than some of our competitors set in casual dining. Having said that, you know, with us looking at everything going on with inflation and not only to restaurants, but to the regular consumer, we felt the value was a huge part of our business as we continue to move forward. Like I mentioned in my talk earlier, that, you know, we definitely feel like we're the best value out there in casual dining. We'll continue to monitor that, and we feel we have some pricing power as we move forward. But we're comfortable going into, you know, shade under seven for the rest of this year and relook at it for 2023.
spk09: And I might add something here, too. If you look at the black box and you look at sales versus traffic – Starting in February of this year, our traffic levels, although still negative, has advanced higher than the overall casual dining has. So we actually surpassed that in traffic. We haven't caught up with overall sales yet because of our pricing, but I think what Steve was talking about is working as well because it's driving the traffic.
spk05: Got it. Okay. That makes sense. And then I guess, what did you call them? The Chewy's knockouts, I believe.
spk00: Oh, good one. Thank you.
spk05: So you guys are going to start to roll those out. And I guess I'm just curious, obviously, you know, there's been a big push behind, you know, the streamlining of the menu through the pandemic. You've added some items back and, you know, now starting to pull some of these things in. Is there any reason to believe or is there an outcome that, through those LTOs, I guess, or the specials that you could think that maybe you need to continue to selectively, I guess, beef up the menu? Or do you not see a scenario where that would play out?
spk02: No, I feel great about the existing menu at that 44, 45-item menu currently. I think it offers a lot of choice and a lot of variety. What we'd like to do starting in the fourth quarter is you're going to see us two to three items a quarter. We'll run six weeks. in the quarter of time. And one might be an old favorite that you used to have. One might be an old special that we ran over the last 10 years. And that's how we'll do that. And so your max would always be three items, two or three every single quarter for a six-week period of time. As we move into 2023, specifically the mid part of the year, you will see us take a little bit of a different approach to these Chewy's Knockouts. And we'll use on one of the items, we'll always probably have a barbell approach to one of them, where it was something that probably won't come onto our menu. It'll be a little higher cost item and a higher priced item that will be, you know, added into the CKOs in the middle of part of the next year. But that's our approach, just to keep something new and exciting as we continue and, again, keep things that we're ready to talk about and get not only our consumer excited, but our employees excited. So that's what we'll do. But we're very comfortable with the size of the menu currently with just a couple to three specials every quarter. And that's how we'll continue to move forward.
spk05: Okay. And then just last one for me is, you know, obviously the marketing levels have gone back up. But we're going into where we're in, you know, what is the choppier environment here? I guess I'm just curious, does that make you think one way or the other about marketing levels, higher or lower? You know, now that you've had that on for a couple quarters at the higher levels, or I guess more normal levels, you know, are you seeing the type of returns on that that you would have expected or like to see? Thanks.
spk02: Yeah, it's expected. What we've done is return back to our 2019 levels is what we've done. Really just adding back into the social part of our business and a little bit of the stuff I mentioned in the call, which is some of the video. Now, we're comfortable with that level. It's roughly 1.45%, 1.5% of sales, and we think that's optimized for us, and we'll continue it there.
spk05: Thank you very much.
spk02: Thank you.
spk03: As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. Our next question is from Nick Satan with Wedbush Securities. Please proceed with your question.
spk04: Thank you. In the past, you've said that limited staffing was keeping lines a little bit longer. Maybe you guys had less tables than you'd like. Customers were waiting outside. I mean, is that still happening? Is there still excess demand that you could convert if you were fully staffed?
spk02: A little bit, Nick. Like I said, we're right around that 95%. One thing that's permanent, though, is in our model, we definitely have changed the model of how many seats, and specifically how many tables are in our restaurants. They're right in that 40 to 42 size is perfect for us. That's also part of our new PAR system on hourlies, and that was forced a little bit, and that's in our new model. It's definitely more profitable hours. And then what we're also doing is we've permanently reduced some hours of operations in our restaurants from 2019 levels. We did an analysis on those and they just really weren't what you'd call profitable hours for us. And that's going to continue and that's where we're at today.
spk04: Got it. Okay. The quarter date, you know, flat to slightly positive, did that include the incremental price increase in Q3? When is that incremental price increase? Was that early in the quarter?
spk02: No, it was right at the end of actually Q2. It's right at the end of it, so it just started in Q3.
spk04: Okay. So the quarter-day commentary included the incremental price increase? Yes.
spk02: Yes.
spk04: Okay. Okay. In terms of just what you're seeing, you know, from consumer behavior, are you seeing, you know, trade downs? Is there, you know, regional differences across the system that makes you call out Texas and the heat in Texas? Anything in common there would be very helpful.
spk02: You know, again, it's broad-based. We haven't seen any big change in anything like that so far. I think you mentioned it a second ago. But no, it's been pretty even all the way across.
spk04: Got it. Okay. And then just the incremental price increase, by my math, it's about 6.5%, maybe 6.7% in Q3 now. And with the food cost inflation commentary, by my math, it keeps COGS right around 28%, maybe low 28%. Is that fair?
spk09: That is fair. Yes, that's fair.
spk04: Okay. All right. Thank you very much.
spk02: Thanks, Nick.
spk03: Thank you. Our next question comes from Andy Barish with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
spk07: Hey, guys. Good evening. First, just wondering on the CKOs, do you expect to drive menu mix you know, positively, or is that something we'll have to kind of wait as you move through 23 and start to implement some of those maybe higher cost, you know, barbell items?
spk02: Yeah, I think what you'll see, and again, just the excitement level from a consumer and our employees in Q4 and Q1, starting probably in Q2 when we do a little bit more of the barbell approach is when you'll start seeing a menu mix change a little bit there, Andy.
spk07: Got it. And then I may have missed something, but can you clarify the delivery menu price comments? Are you seeing more pressure there, or is it less pressure from delivery fees hitting the income statement? I wasn't sure where that was going.
spk09: No, it's more, Andy, as we started about three years ago to try to combat those fees, right? We did that final price increase this year that's now covering 100% of those fees. But that fee goes in our operating expense. And so that's what's driving that a little bit higher. So that's running about 100 basis points higher than just because of those fees from where we were in 2019. because that's kind of how we have to record it. You've got the extra revenue on the revenue side, but then you still have to record the operating fees down there in the operating statement.
spk07: Gotcha. Okay. And then finally, just on store pipeline, can you give us a sense just on kind of how much flexibility you know, you have to open up, you know, let's say those 10 or so units for next year and how many of them are, you know, kind of on the smaller, you know, 5,000 square foot prototype where maybe it's, you know, a little bit easier, not that opening anything is easy right now.
spk09: Yeah, you're right. I mean, it's not easy, but we're flowing that out. Some of those Over into 23 and with those going over we feel pretty comfortable with our pipeline for 2023 that we can accomplish that 10%. Unless it gets a little more restrictive than it is now, we think that you know delay and may even give us a little benefit from a pricing standpoint as you've seen lumber come down drastically. but it's really kind of supply issues right now, getting the labor, getting the contractors, and getting the equipment on site. So hopefully that alleviates some, but as far as from a site selection and site pipeline, we feel pretty comfortable at this point for 2023.
spk02: And as you know, Andy, all our expansion over the next, you know, what we've said is about three years, it's going to be probably in you know, four to five states that we've talked about where we currently already have units and we have good awareness already, so we feel pretty comfortable going into those areas.
spk07: Got it. Thank you very much. Thanks.
spk03: Thank you. Our next question is from Todd Brooks of the Benchmark Company. Please proceed with your question.
spk06: Hey, good evening, everybody.
spk02: Hey, Todd. Hey, Todd.
spk06: A couple questions is just leftovers here. One, Steve, you pointed to gross general manager retention and actually paying the manager retention bonuses again. Can you size, is it equivalent to what we paid out across Q2 and Q3 last year? Or what's the structure of how those retention bonuses are working currently?
spk02: Yeah, no, nothing like that. I think last year was around 1.6 million, I believe. You're talking in the $150,000 range currently on the quarter basis.
spk06: Okay, perfect. Thanks. And then the second question I have is if you spoke to catering being in 16 markets now, all markets hopefully by year end, just how is demand shaping up for catering? And as you start to think about maybe where it could mix out in the fourth quarter, how big of an opportunity is this year over year? Thanks.
spk09: Yeah, great question. So we currently are blown away kind of any numbers that we've had in the past. We're hitting all-time highs, close to double what we were in 2019. So I think we've said this before. I mean, we're close to about 3% of sales right now in catering. We think that can grow easily to 4% to 6% once we start promoting it and get it in all markets.
spk02: Yeah, the big thing on that is in 19 when we were doing big, big, big parties, they're starting to come back now. Through the last year, we've been doing a lot of 20s, 30s, and 40s instead of the 100s and 150s that we had in 2019. But we're just now starting to see the weddings coming back a little bit more, bigger weddings, and we're excited about seeing that.
spk06: And then just to put a finer point on this, seasonally, as you get to Q4 and there's just holiday-based celebrations, would you expect it to mix higher, John, maybe towards the high end of that four to six range?
spk09: No, it's going to take a while for that to get there. I mean, if you think of private dining, right, and events like that, generally you're probably a year in advance before you start building that business and going to wedding venues and you know how far in advance they plan. So it's going to take a while to build up to that. So we don't expect that in Q4, but I think ultimately we can get there. Yes.
spk06: Okay, great. Thank you both. Thank you.
spk03: Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Steve Hislop for any closing comments.
spk02: Okay, thank you so much. John and I appreciate your continued interest and choosing. We'll always be available to answer any and all questions. Again, thank you, stay healthy, and have a good evening.
spk03: This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
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